Kris Bryant Expected To Be Healthy For Spring Training
Despite being limited to 42 games due to a lower back strain and left foot plantar fasciitis, Rockies’ outfielder Kris Bryant has proclaimed himself 100% ready for baseball, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. Saunders adds that Bryant does not anticipate any restrictions when he reports to Salt River Fields for Spring Training. Manager Bud Black added to Bryant’s confident statement, saying that Bryant is “encouraged that he’ll be exactly where he needs to be a month from now.”
Bryant reportedly began ramping up his rehab shortly after the season ended, and has not experienced any setbacks with his back or foot. Nevertheless, plantar fasciitis is a particularly tricky injury, with recurrence common due in part to the limited blood flow around the heel and the constant use of one’s foot. A recent example of the impact of plantar fasciitis is slugger Albert Pujols, who missed part of the 2013 season after experiencing continued pain caused by his plantar fasciitis. However, Pujols’ decision to rest did not fully heal this issue, and the three-time MVP was forced to undergo surgery in late 2016 in an attempt to ease his ailment.
When discussing his injury, Bryant told reporters that he believes that he might have contributed to his plantar fasciitis while recovering from his back injury, compensating for his decreased power by overworking his lower body. Nevertheless, Bryant added that he is working with Scott Pensivy, a Las Vegas-based physical therapist who has previously worked with NBA players and Bryant himself, to correct the issue and reduce future setbacks. Bryant added that he’s had “no hiccups and no setbacks” and that he’s, “completely moved in the right direction.”
Bryant’s positive assertion is a welcome site for the Rockies, who struggled to a 68-94 record without him during the 2022 season. Bryant started the 2022 season slashing a weak .281/.339/.351, before he was placed on the injured list, missing the majority of May and June. He returned with a bang in July, hitting .341/.411/.612 in 95 plate appearances before injuries forced the end of his season. Outside of Bryant’s limited performance, Colorado’s offense struggled. No Colorado player (minimum 150 plate appearances) finished the season with a higher average, on-base percentage, or slugging percentage than Bryant. Additionally, only All-Star C.J. Cron finished the year with a slugging percentage greater than .435 (minimum 150 plate appearances), despite playing in one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums. In addition to the threat of Bryant’s bat, Black hopes that Bryant’s “presence will be felt by the opposing pitcher,” which will help “all our guys.” Bryant signed a seven-year, $182MM contract with Colorado before the 2022 season, the largest free agent contract in franchise history, that will keep him with the club through the 2028 season.
Quick Hits: Wacha, Hendricks, Profar
The Orioles have continued their previously reported interest in free-agent starter Michael Wacha, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. There is no indication that talks between the two parties have been particularly serious. Wacha would give the Orioles a second free-agent veteran arm signing, with the club having already added Kyle Gibson on a one-year, $10MM deal in early December.
Wacha, 31, threw 127 1/3 innings with a 3.32 ERA during the 2022 season. His 20.2% strikeout rate and 41.2% ground ball rate were both below the league average for starters, but he coupled that with a strong 6.0% walk rate. Nevertheless, advanced fielding-independent metrics were not as bullish on his baseline ERA work, with Wacha finishing the season posting a 4.14 FIP and a 4.07 SIERA. Likely contributing to these higher metrics was the 80.3% strand rate that set a career-high by nearly 7% and some luck with balls in play (.260 BABIP).
Notably, 2022 was Wacha’s first season since 2015 in which he threw over 100 innings with a sub-4 ERA. Additionally, 2022 marked the righty’s fourth consecutive season where he was limited to less than 130 innings, excluding the COVID-19 2020 season. Wacha required two separate stints on the injured list during the 2022 season, missing a couple of weeks with left intercostal irritation in May and missing the bulk of July dealing with right shoulder inflammation.
The Birds are projected to start 2023 with a rotation comprised of Gibson, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, and Kyle Bradish. Additionally, Mike Baumann and DL Hall, who made their MLB debuts during the 2022 season, figure to have roles with the big league club during the 2023 season, while top prospect Grayson Rodriguez will likely earn a call-up as well. Veteran John Means is also projected to return to Baltimore during the 2023 season, having undergone Tommy John surgery in April.
Wacha is the last unsigned starting pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent List and would aid the Orioles in their quest to return to the playoffs for the first time since the 2016 AL Wild Card game. MLBTR predicted that Wacha would sign a two-year, $16MM deal at the start of the offseason.
Some more notes from around the league…
- Cubs‘ starter Kyle Hendricks expects to be throwing off a mound around March 1, per Meghan Montemurro of The Chicago Tribune (Twitter Link). Hendricks ended the 2022 season on the injured list after dealing with a capsular tear in his right shoulder that limited him to 16 starts. The 33-year-old’s rehab has reportedly been behind schedule, but the righty has told reporters, including Montemurro, that his shoulder feels “amazing” and that the Cubs want him to “take advantage of this ramp up of the long toss program,” which will likely delay his 2023 debut. The 2023 season is Hendricks’ last year with a guaranteed contract, with the Cubs holding a $16MM club option for the 2024 season.
- The Rockies are not one of the teams interested in Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post. The switch-hitting outfielder finished the 2022 season with a .243/.331/.391 slash line, popping 15 home runs and 36 doubles. Additionally, Profar is ranked by MLBTR as the top remaining free agent and is the lone unsigned position player from the list. MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco recently wrote an article detailing which teams make the most sense for the 29-year-old veteran, with the Rangers, Marlins, and Braves standing out as potential suitors. The Astros had reportedly expressed interest in Profar before re-signing Michael Brantley.
NL Central Notes: Cards’ Rotation, McCutchen, Cubs
While the Cardinals are again shaping up nicely to compete for top honors in the National League Central, they’ll be faced with some important decisions a year or so from now. Among their starting rotation, only Steven Matz is signed beyond the 2023 season, with Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright (who will retire), Miles Mikolas and Jack Flaherty all slated for free agency in November.
Replacing four starters in free agency is no easy feat, particularly given the way starting pitchers were priced this winter, and while they do have Dakota Hudson and prospect Matthew Liberatore as options, it should come as little surprise that Derrick Goold of the St Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the team is planning to open discussions over an extension with two starters this spring.
As Goold notes, Mikolas and Montgomery would appear to be the obvious candidates, with Flaherty a possibility as well – although he has dealt with injuries over the past few years. Montgomery, 30 last month, worked to a 3.11 ERA over 11 starts for the Cards after coming over from the Yankees at the deadline last year. He’s been a steady mid-rotation arm for a few years now and agreed to a $10MM salary in his final year before free agency. Mid-rotation arms such as Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon were sought-after commodities in free agency this year, and Montgomery would likely fit into that bracket next winter.
Mikolas, 34, worked to a 3.29 ERA over 202 1/3 innings last season. Another year like that in 2023 would set him up for a nice payday late in his career, so perhaps the the Cardinals could try and get ahead of that and lock up Mikolas for another few seasons.
Here’s some more notes from around the NL Central:
- The Pirates move to bring back franchise icon Andrew McCutchen has been met with positivity around baseball, and Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette sheds some more light on the matter. As it turns out, a return to Pittsburgh seemed unlikely until as recently as New Year’s Day when McCutchen sent a text message to Pirates owner Bob Nutting laying out his desire to return to Pittsburgh to finish his career. As Mackey relays, Nutting then approached general manager Ben Cherington, who then met McCutchen for coffee in Pittsburgh’s northern suburbs to see if a deal could be made.While veteran signings on rebuilding clubs are often done with an eye towards the trade deadline, Mackey reports that it’s more likely McCutchen returns to the Pirates in 2024 than is flipped at the deadline. That’s not to say there’s no chance of a trade, but it does seem like McCutchen is motivated by helping Pittsburgh’s young core return to relevance, and Mackey adds that the 2013 MVP sees similarities in Pittsburgh’s 2009-12 rebuild that wound up in the team going to the playoffs three straight years between 2013-15. The Pirates don’t seem quite ready to return to playoff baseball just yet, but it would make for quite the fairytale if McCutchen were to be part of the next playoff team in Pittsburgh.
- The Cubs have been aggressive in free agency this winter as they look to return to the top of the Central. The team has inked long-term deals with Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly, while also adding the likes of Cody Bellinger on significant deals. The team currently has a bit of wiggle room under the first luxury tax marker, but they’ll surely be approaching it over the next few years as they make more free agent additions and deal with Nico Hoerner‘s arbitration raises. Per a report from Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, owner Tom Ricketts spoke of a strategic approach to the luxury tax as the team moves forward.“There will be times I’m sure in the near future where we’ll go over. But we’ll always keep in mind that there’s a balance there you have to always look to manage. Just like we did a few years ago, we’ll go over, but we have to be careful of how long and by how much,” Ricketts said.The Cubs’ luxury tax payroll currently sits at $215MM (according to Fangraphs’ calculation), with the first threshold coming at $233MM.
Giants Notes: Correa, Wade, Belt, Jackson
Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi met with the media yesterday and addressed a wide array of topics. In addition to downplaying the club’s need for catching help, he touched on a few of the team’s free agent decisions.
Nothing has loomed larger for the organization over the past few weeks than the deal with Carlos Correa that fell through. Correa’s camp quickly pivoted to the Mets after the Giants expressed concerns about the star shortstop’s physical and backed out of their $350MM agreement. Of course, New York’s doctors expressed similar concerns and Correa’s $315MM deal with the Mets also fell apart.
Zaidi indicated that San Francisco briefly touched base with Correa’s camp after his physical with the Mets was flagged (link via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area). The Giants’ baseball ops leader indicated Correa wasn’t much interested in reopening discussions with San Francisco at the time, saying that Correa’s group “had other things they were more focused on.” Zaidi had expressed something similar a couple weeks back, indicating the team was unlikely to get deeply involved again with the Boras Corporation then focused on hammering out a deal with the Mets. That never came to fruition and Correa eventually returned to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee.
While the Giants’ offseason is in large part defined by near-misses on Aaron Judge and Correa, San Francisco certainly wasn’t inactive. They came up short on the star player they’d been seeking but brought in a number of quality regulars and role players. That was especially true in the outfield, where Joc Pederson returned via the qualifying offer and Mitch Haniger and Michael Conforto signed multi-year free agent deals.
That solidified the outfield, with Haniger and Conforto expected to flank Mike Yastrzemski or Austin Slater on most days. Pederson will be the primary designated hitter if everyone’s healthy. LaMonte Wade Jr. has gotten a decent amount of corner outfield run over the past couple seasons but now looks set to man first base, at least as the strong side of a platoon arrangement.
Wade, a left-handed hitter, owns a .235/.318/.434 line over 632 plate appearances since the Giants acquired him from the Twins over the 2020-21 offseason. He’s been dreadful in 75 looks against left-handed pitching (.119/.178/.149) but has a quality .251/.336/.473 line with 26 home runs and 22 doubles in 557 trips while holding the platoon advantage. That makes him a logical partner for right-handed hitters like Wilmer Flores, J.D. Davis and David Villar, each of whom could rotate through the corner infield.
A desire to lean on Wade at first base played into San Francisco’s decision to watch Brandon Belt join the Blue Jays in free agency, Zaidi indicted (Pavlovic link). Zaidi suggested the team stayed in touch with Belt but didn’t specify whether the club made an official offer. After parts of 12 seasons in San Francisco, the veteran first baseman joined the Jays on a $9.3MM deal earlier this week.
One free agent whom San Francisco did sign is reliever Luke Jackson. The longtime Braves righty didn’t pitch in 2022 thanks to an April Tommy John surgery. It marked a rough platform year but San Francisco still added him on a two-year, $11.5MM guarantee. With the typical Tommy John rehab taking roughly 14 months, Jackson isn’t expected to be ready for the start of next season. Zaidi acknowledged he might open the year on the 60-day injured list, which would keep him out of action until at least late May (link via Evan Webeck of the San Jose Mercury News). That’s not suggestive of any kind of setback, as Zaidi said Jackson is “doing great in his rehab.”
Giants Notes: Sanchez, Marshall, Conforto
The Giants didn’t succeed in landing the marquee free agent they sought when the offseason began, but they have added to their roster in a different way. They’ve spread their money around and given eight-figure guarantees to six different players in Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Joc Pederson, Ross Stripling, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson. But they still have their sights set on further upgrades, with Héctor Gómez of Z101 Digital reporting they have shown interest in catcher Gary Sánchez.
The level of interest the club has is not known, but it makes plenty of logical sense. The Giants only have a pair of catchers on their 40-man roster at the moment, as Austin Wynns was designated for assignment last week. The two remaining backstops are Blake Sabol, a Rule 5 draftee with no major league experience, and Joey Bart.
The latter was a second overall pick in 2018 who has been ranked as one of the better prospects in the game, but he’s yet to fully cement himself in the big leagues. Through 408 plate appearances over the past three seasons, he’s hit 11 home runs but struck out at a 38% rate. His batting line currently sits at .222/.294/.351 for a wRC+ of 84. He was also considered a subpar defender and framer last year, according to Defensive Runs Saved and FanGraphs. Even if the Giants still believe in Bart as their long-term solution behind the plate, it makes sense that they would consider a veteran alternative as a safety net for the short-term.
Sánchez, 30, earned a reputation as a bat-first catcher when he hit 53 home runs over 2016 and 2017. His batting line over that two-year stretch was .284/.354/.568 for a wRC+ of 143. He’s since cooled off at the plate, posting a 96 wRC+ in the five seasons since, including an 89 in 2022. Despite that tepid platform year at the plate, his previous production should still lead to some interest. It’s also possible he could get a boost from the upcoming defensive restrictions since he was shifted in more than 70% of his appearances last year, despite being right-handed. Sánchez has long been considered to be weaker on the defensive side of his game, but he was actually ranked above average by both DRS and FanGraphs’ framing metric last year.
The Giants have been quite active on the waiver wire in recent years, grabbing various catchers and cycling them through the roster throughout the year. Signing Sánchez would be a change in strategy but an understandable one since he’s arguably the top catcher still available in free agency.
The club also has interest in reliever Evan Marshall, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Marshall bounced around the league for a few years but seemed to have a breakout with the White Sox in 2019 and 2020. Over those two seasons, the right-hander made 78 appearances with a 2.45 ERA. His 10.3% walk rate was certainly on the high side but he struck out 23.5% of batters faced and got ground balls at a strong clip of 52.3%.
Unfortunately, things went sideways in 2021, with his ERA jumping to 5.60. He went to the injured list in June with an elbow injury and eventually underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The Sox outrighted him off the roster at season’s end and he missed the entire 2022 campaign.
The club’s interest in Marshall, who turns 33 in April, would be somewhat akin to their signing of Luke Jackson. The latter pitcher underwent Tommy John in April of last year and isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day. Marshall is also coming back from TJS but should be further along since he went under the knife about six months earlier than Jackson, though that’s speculative and each injury rehab is unique. Regardless of his current status, it seems the Giants have some interest in seeing if he can get back to that strong form he showed a few years ago.
Elsewhere in Giant news, Conforto provided a health update to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle. The outfielder missed the entire 2022 season due to a shoulder injury but is now healthy enough that the Giants signed him to a two-year, $36MM guarantee. Conforto can opt out of the deal after the first season but only if he makes at least 350 plate appearances this year.
He tells Shea that he’s begun ramping up for 2023 and is already throwing from 200 feet. “It’s all going great, knock on wood,” Conforto says. “There haven’t been any setbacks. I got all my measurements today with the medical team, and they’re pleased with the way everything’s looking, strength-wise, swing-wise, running, everything.”
NL East Notes: Marlins, Escobar, Phillies, Soto, Braves Extensions
Jean Segura is the Marlins‘ biggest addition of the offseason, even though Miami is known to have looked into several other options before inking Segura to a two-year, $17MM contract. Some of those other free agent and trade targets are already off the board, and it appears as though signing Segura ends any chance of an Eduardo Escobar trade, as Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report that the Marlins had some talks with the Mets about a possible swap.
Timing is everything in trade negotiations, and it seems as though the Marlins checked in on Escobar after the Mets reached their 12-year, $315M agreement with Carlos Correa. Had the Correa deal been finalized fairly quickly, there would’ve been a greater chance of Escobar being moved, as the veteran infielder suddenly would’ve been out of a starting job in New York’s infield. However, the Mets’ issues with Correa’s physical have led to stalled negotiations in finalizing or perhaps even reworking the deal, to the point that other teams have reportedly re-entered the picture. As such, it isn’t surprising that the Mets have opted to hang onto Escobar, leaving the Marlins looking elsewhere for a more immediate lineup fix.
More from around the NL East…
- Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke with reporters (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer) about his club’s trade with the Tigers today. Moving three players was “not easy for us,” Dombrowski said, but the Phillies were tempted by the chance to add a quality, controllable reliever like Gregory Soto. The Phillies first talked Soto with the Tigers during the Winter Meetings, but negotiations seemed to cool until this past Thursday, when Dombrowski said that Detroit PBO Scott Harris called to revisit a Soto deal. In regards to the other players involved, Kody Clemens figures to take over one of the bench spots left by Nick Maton or Matt Vierling, and Dombrowski said the other spot could be filled by a future smaller acquisition, or perhaps by a player already in Philadelphia’s system.
- Sean Murphy‘s six-year, $73MM extension with the Braves made him the latest Atlanta player to sign a long-term deal within the last year, giving the Braves yet another key player locked up for the majority of the decade. It is a strategy that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos has pursued “for the parameters that we have, for the market we have, for what we have to work with,” and also because of the players’ own buy-in. “These guys are choosing to stay here, and they don’t have to. I think that’s important, and it’s a credit to Atlanta and the organization across the board,” Anthopoulos told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Justin Toscano and other reporters earlier this week. “There’s risk to this, no doubt about it, when you lock yourself into this…But we do like the fact that guys can just worry about going out and playing. They don’t have to worry about making a certain salary, getting certain statistics and so on, and they know they’re going to be here.”
Pitching Notes: Hendricks, Heuer, King
The Cubs are hoping to be able to have veteran starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks ready for opening day, but it seems the team won’t be rushing him back, according to a report from Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times. Hendricks ended the season on the injured list rehabbing a capsular tear in his shoulder that limited him to just 84 innings in 2022.
Per reports at the end of October, Hendricks was a bit behind in his throwing schedule, having hoped to start playing catch by the end of the 2022 season. Instead, that target was shifted to November.
Pitching coach Tommy Hottovy provided an update to Lee, saying Hendricks is on a regimented throwing program and is playing catch off flat ground. Obviously there’s still a fair bit of rehab to go between that and pitching in baseball games, but it seems the Cubs are still hopeful he can be a part of the opening day roster.
“I’m so overly focused on getting Kyle back to being the best version of himself and not rushing it, not pushing it. We all know what Kyle can do when he feels great, when he’s healthy, when he’s locked in,” Hottovy told Lee.
The 16 starts Hendricks made in 2022 was the fewest he’d made in a season since 2014 (excluding the 2020 campaign). While his output has dropped back a bit in recent years, he’s still been a valuable starter over the past few seasons for Chicago, working to a 4.78 ERA over 265 1/3 innings over 2021-22.
The Cubs currently have him penciled into a rotation that also features veterans Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly. Left-hander Justin Steele took a step forward in 2022 and looks set to be the fifth option in that group. That makes for a solid five-man rotation, yet the Cubs have some good options should Hendricks not be ready for the season as well. Adrian Sampson had some success in 19 starts last season, and could get a look, while Keegan Thompson, Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad are all young options who’ve done well in their brief time in the majors.
In the bullpen, the Cubs are counting on the return of Codi Heuer at some stage. Heuer had Tommy John surgery in spring training last year, but Lee’s reports he remains on track for a return to the mound sometime in late-June or early-July. After coming over to the Cubs in a cross-town trade with the White Sox that included Nick Madrigal and Craig Kimbrel, Heuer tossed 28 2/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball in relief. He doesn’t get many strikeouts, but induces a lot of soft contact and with a strong Cubs defense behind him could do well. Heuer is projected for a modest raise to $800K through his first year of arbitration (courtesy of Matt Swartz’ projections) and is under team control for another three seasons.
Sticking with injured relievers, the Yankees bullpen was dealt a significant blow when Michael King went down with a fractured elbow. King had tossed 51 innings of 2.29 ERA ball, and had blossomed into a dominant multi-inning reliever for the Yankees. Chris Kirscher of The Athletic reports that King may not be ready for opening day, calling it a “tad optimistic” to think he’ll be up to speed for the first game of the season. In any event, Kirschner adds that King has begun his throwing program and is “progressing well”, so there doesn’t seem to be much concern that King is at risk of any major setback in his recovery.
Red Sox’s Chris Sale Drawing Trade Interest
Teams are reportedly checking in with the Red Sox on the availability of seven-time All-Star Chris Sale, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. However, Heyman notes that Boston is “not looking to trade any of their starters,” but is “willing to listen and consider.” Sale is currently owed $55MM through the 2024 season. Nevertheless, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).
Arriving in Boston after the 2016 season, Sale continued to display his superiority on the mound, pitching to sub-3 ERAs in 2017 and 2018 while helping the Red Sox win their fourth World Series Championship since 2000. Following their victory, Boston and Sale soon hammered out a five-year, $145MM extension (with a vesting option for the 2025 season) that many believed to be a bargain at the time for a starting pitcher that had seven consecutive All-Star appearances, six consecutive Top-5 Cy Young finishes, four consecutive seasons of MVP consideration, and boasted a career 2.89 ERA in 1482 1/3 innings with a 30.2 SO%, 5.7% BB, and 42.9% ground ball rate.
However, after signing that extension Sale went on to have arguably the worst full season of his career. In 2019, the southpaw saw his ERA balloon to a career-high 4.40 in 147 1/3 innings while dealing with inflammation in his pitching elbow that forced a premature end to his year.
After rehabilitation and undergoing a platelet-rich plasma injection, expectations were high for the lefty as the extension went into effect for the 2020 season. However, Sale would soon be forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in March 2020, missing the entirety of the truncated season and the first half of the 2021 season. He was then shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. Then, shortly before he was scheduled to return to the club, the Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.
Altogether, it’s been a near-nightmarish start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.
The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello is tentatively lined up for a turn in the rotation but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks and sparks of brilliance). Righties Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck have rotation potential but both have thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Additional righty starters Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, and Connor Seabold were all posted ERAs north of 5.25 as rookies in 2022.
With Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Rich Hill departing via free agency and Sale and James Paxton (also returning from injury) wild cards, the Red Sox were expected to target starting pitching this offseason. Nevertheless, the club has yet to add to their staff, instead fortifying their bullpen and adding position players Masataka Yoshida and Justin Turner.
From a financial perspective, if Sale, who is projected to be healthy for Spring Training, can return to even a fraction of his dominant self, the Red Sox will have control of a top-tier starting pitcher who can be considered ‘cheap’ when compared to other high-level starters that have recently signed large contracts with AAVs greater than $35MM, such as Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom. That’s not to say that Sale is currently at the level of those pitchers, but that he has been at similar heights and could reasonably reach a prominent level of production again
Currently, Roster Resource projects Boston’s payroll to be near $177MM, and their competitive balance tax figure to be roughly $203MM. With the base competitive balance tax threshold set at $233MM for the 2023 season, the Red Sox are in no rush to shed salary and may instead hold onto Sale in the hopes that he returns to his pre-Tommy John levels of excellence.
Quick Hits: Diamondbacks, Red Sox, Rangers
The Diamondbacks have added former pitcher Rolando Valles to their major league coaching staff, per Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic. Valles takes the position vacated by former D-Backs bench coach Luis Urueta, who left the team in November to join the Marlins in the same role. When discussing the hiring, manager Torey Lovullo told reporters that Valles will be part of Arizona’s “run-prevention team.”
Signed by the Astros as an undrafted free agent in 1997, Valles would spend five years in the club’s system, reaching Low-A, before playing another five seasons in independent leagues. He then transitioned to an organizational role, spending two seasons with the Brewers in their player development system helping players with their off-field needs and on-field development before becoming a minor league pitching coach in 2010. Valles joined the Reds in 2019 in an associate coaching role where he engaged in offensive and pitching duties.
Some more notes from around the game…
- The recent passing of a ‘millionaires tax’ in Massachusetts has led to an increase in state income taxes in 2023 from 5% to 9% on annual income over $1MM — potentially impacting Boston’s offseason, per Alex Speier of The Boston Globe. Speier reports that agents who have been negotiating with the Red Sox are factoring in the tax when contemplating offers, stating that “it’s potentially millions of dollars in the deal.” Speier adds that Boston is now “lumped in with teams in California and New York in needing to outbid clubs in more favorable tax environments (particularly Texas and Florida, where there’s no state income tax) to present offers of equal value.” Speculatively speaking, this tax may have played a role in the Red S0x’s five-year, $90MM agreement with NPB star Masataka Yoshida, who many around the league predicted would earn significantly less.
- With the Red Sox witnessing their longtime shortstop Xander Bogarts leave in free agency, the club has been connected with several middle infielders to fill the hole, most recently signing Niko Goodrum to a Minor League deal and discussing Joey Wendle with the Marlins. However, the door for Kike Hernandez to play a key role in the infield has not been completely shut. The super utilityman told reports that he is “preparing to play center field every day … but I haven’t thrown away my infield glove,” adding that he continues to take ground balls. Over nine seasons, the 31-year-old has logged 2,335 innings at short and second base but has primarily patrolled Fenway’s outfield in recent years. From a defensive standpoint, advanced metrics concerning Hernandez’s middle infield production are split. Since 2014 at the shortstop position, the righty is credited with 9 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and a 5.4 Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) but a -3 Outs Above Average (OAA). Similarly, since 2014 at second base, Hernandez has amassed 18 DRS but a -6.1 UZR and -5 OAA.
- Despite missing the entirety of the 2022 season, Michael Conforto and agent Scott Boras were able to secure the outfielder a two-year, $36MM contract with the Giants. Important to the deal, per Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, was the no-barrier opt out presented to Conforto by San Francisco. Grant adds that while the Rangers offered the left-handed hitter a deal similar to the Giants, Conforto would have to meet certain playing thresholds to execute the opt out.
Pirates Notes: Reynolds, Starting Pitching, Cruz
The Pirates have made a handful of moves to bring in major league talent this winter, but one of the biggest storylines remains the potential departure of star outfielder Bryan Reynolds. Reynolds handed in a trade request on December 3, but at this point remains on the Bucs’ roster, with the team reportedly setting a high asking price for the 27-year-old. MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds a bit more depth to that, reporting Pittsburgh wants a top starting pitcher to headline the return. Morosi cites the Dodgers’ Bobby Miller and the Blue Jays’ Ricky Tiedemann – both of whom are top-40 MLB prospects – as examples of the sort of prospect they want.
While both L.A. and Toronto could make sense as speculative fits for Reynolds, neither has been reported as in discussions with the Pirates. That’s not true of the Yankees though, and Morosi further reports that New York has been in contact with the Pirates over the past few weeks. The Yankees’ major remaining off-season need is a left-fielder so the switch-hitting Reynolds makes plenty of sense, especially given the free agent market has thinned out considerably following Andrew Benintendi and Michael Conforto finding new homes.
As Morosi notes, one roadblock to a deal could be Pittsburgh’s desire for a starting pitcher to headline the deal. The Yankees’ system is headlined by position player prospects such as Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza and Jasson Dominguez. Their top starting pitcher prospects, according to Baseball America, are Randy Vasquez, Will Warren and Drew Thorpe, but all three project as back-of-the-rotation types rather than the frontline starter Pittsburgh is seeking. Clayton Beeter shot up New York’s prospect charts after coming over from the Dodgers in the Joey Gallo trade and would be an intriguing name to watch, but unlikely to headline any deal.
A potential trade of Reynolds would help to free up the surplus of outfielders the Pirates have. Alternatively, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic writes, general manager Ben Cherington could package up one of his lesser-known outfielders with other prospects in a deal, possibly for a starting pitcher.
“We would still like to add a starting pitcher. That market’s been strong, but we continue to stay engaged with some free agents and trade opportunities. Both of those can be hard to speculate, in terms of how likely it is to line up. We’d also like to add another position player, if we can,” Cherington said.
As things stand, the Pirates are slated to go with some combination of Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Miguel Andujar and Connor Joe in the outfield at the major league level, with Ji Hwan Bae, Calvin Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba and Travis Swaggerty options as well, so it certainly makes sense that the Pirates could dip into that group to try and bolster another part of the roster.
Biertempfel’s report also provides some update on shortstop Oneil Cruz, who sustained an ankle injury playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic.
“He does have some swelling. He’s not gonna play right now and let that calm down. We’re going to try to get him to the States after the holidays, just to be sure about what’s going on. But all reports so far are that it’s a relatively minor thing. It should pass without being too much of an issue,” Cherington said.
While there’s nothing definitive there, it doesn’t seem like there’s too much concern over Cruz’ status from the Pirates. After belting 17 home runs and slashing .233/.294/.450 across 361 plate appearances, Cruz finished sixth in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and looks set to be Pittsburgh’s opening day shortstop in 2023.