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Phillies Notes: Outfield, Castellanos, Rotation

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Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski spoke with the media this week and said that the club was mostly set with their outfield after the Adolis García signing. Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports that the club is looking for a right-handed platoon bat to add into the mix.

That’s a sensible target, given the current setup. García should have right field spoken for with Brandon Marsh in left. The Phils want to give Justin Crawford a chance to take over the center field job. Both Marsh and Crawford are lefties. Marsh has notable career splits, with a .213/.278/.303 line and 61 wRC+ against southpaws in his career. Crawford actually fared slightly better against lefties in the minors this year but in a tiny sample of just 91 plate appearances against southpaws.

Having another righty bat who hits lefties well would make sense, particularly to platoon with Marsh. Crawford is more of a speed-and-defense guy anyway. He has hit well in the minors but with a high-contact, low-power approach that might be harder to pull off when facing better pitching and better defense in the majors. Time will tell how it plays but the Phils might be willing to live with whatever offense he can provide against lefties if he’s stealing bases and running the ball down on the grass.

Gelb mentions Rob Refsnyder as the kind of profile the Phillies are looking for, a righty bat who has mashed lefties in his career. He is one of many free agents to fit this profile, alongside guys like Miguel Andujar, Randal Grichuk, Austin Hays, Tommy Pham, Austin Slater and others. Old friend Harrison Bader would be a nice fit but he can probably get an everyday center field job elsewhere.

The Phils also have a potential solution already on the roster in Nick Castellanos. His offense has tailed off in recent years but he has largely stayed effective with the platoon advantage. He didn’t hit well against pitchers of either handedness in 2025 but still hit lefties as recently as 2024, when he had a .269/.324/.506 line and 124 wRC+ in the split.

Gelb reported back in October that the Phils would likely trade or release Castellanos. He re-asserted that position in this week’s column, linked above. It’s an interesting dynamic for the Phils as Castellanos is potentially the profile they are looking for but it seems they will look elsewhere. Perhaps that’s due to his defensive shortcomings or the fact that he hit just .243/.293/.387 against lefties in 2025 for an 87 WRC+.

It’s also theoretically possible that it’s due to off-the-field dynamics. Castellanos and manager Rob Thomson don’t seem to have the best relationship. Castellanos was benched in June for some kind of inappropriate comment made to the skipper, per ESPN. Castellanos also publicly criticized Thomson for his communication skills. With the apparent friction, perhaps things would get even worse if Castellanos were bumped into a part-time, short-side platoon role.

Whatever the reasoning, it seems the Phils are in a strange position. Castellanos is still owed $20MM next year. If they can’t find a trade partner, they could end up releasing him. It appears they will also look for a replacement, probably spending another $5MM or so on some new guy. The Phillies are a repeat tax payor and are over the top line, meaning that they pay a 110% tax on any additional spending. In the end, it’s possible they give Castellanos $20MM to go away, then spend a few million more on his replacement, plus taxes.

On the pitching side, Gelb reports that the Phils are looking for rotation depth but don’t appear to be looking for any guys on multi-year contracts. That makes some sense with what they have in place already, as they have a few questions but might have enough arms.

Zack Wheeler is recovering from surgery to address venous thoracic outlet syndrome. He is expected to begin the season on the injured list but could rejoin the rotation fairly early in the campaign. While he’s out, the Phils should start the season with a rotation consisting of Cristopher Sánchez, Jesús Luzardo, Aaron Nola, Taijuan Walker and Andrew Painter.

There’s an argument for the club to sign another starter but things could theoretically get tight once Wheeler is back. If they did sign a big free agent, then there’s a scenario fairly early in the season where this free agent, Wheeler, Sánchez, Luzardo and Nola have the five rotation spots. That would bump Walker to long relief and Painter to Triple-A.

The Phils might actually want to have a path open for Painter in case 2026 is his breakout year. His 5.40 earned run average in Triple-A this year wasn’t pretty but that was mostly due to a home run spike, unusual for him. 17.6% of his fly balls allowed went over the fence, whereas he was at just 5.6% in 2022 before getting hurt. This year’s 23.7% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate were pretty close to average.

While Wheeler is out, the Phils can give Painter a chance to hold a rotation spot. By the time Wheeler gets back, the Phils can decide whether Painter needs more Triple-A time or if he’s ready to take off.

This all assumes everyone is healthy at the same time. Given the likelihood of injuries to the pitching staff, perhaps the Phils should bolster the group anyway. With Walker and Luzardo impending free agents, signing a multi-year deal now would also help the club in 2027.

However, the club’s 2026 payroll is already pretty close to where they were in 2025. According to RosterResource, they are within $14MM of where they finished the most recent season. If they re-sign J.T. Realmuto as hoped, they would end up making up most or all of that difference. In terms of CBT, as mentioned, they are already over the top line and facing a 110% on further spending. Rather than go after a big splash for the rotation, they will add some depth but will mostly be hoping that the guys they already have can step up.

Photo courtesy of Kyle Ross, Imagn Images

Blue Jays Notes: Weaver, Outfielders, Berrios

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With the Blue Jays scouring the bullpen market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that Luke Weaver is one of the many relievers on the Jays’ radar.  Weaver temporarily served as the Yankees’ closer in 2025, but would presumably be used just in a high-leverage capacity by the Jays, and probably isn’t viewed as a candidate to supplant Jeff Hoffman in the ninth inning (unlike other Jays targets Robert Suarez or the newly-signed Dodger Edwin Diaz).

MLB Trade Rumors projected Weaver for a two-year, $18MM contract, and we ranked the right-hander 41st on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.  He posted a 3.62 ERA, 7.6% walk rate, and 27.5% strikeout rate, with very strong chase and whiff rates accompanying that impressive K%.  However, Weaver’s 2025 season was a Jekyll-and-Hyde campaign built around a three-week absence in June due to a hamstring strain.

Weaver had a 1.05 ERA over 25 2/3 innings prior to his stint on the injured list, and then a 5.31 ERA over his final 39 innings of the season.  If the regular-season woes weren’t enough, Weaver was then charged with five earned runs over what was officially just one-third of an inning pitched over three playoff appearances — the Jays themselves contributed to this misery by scoring three runs off Weaver without a batter retired in their 10-1 rout in Game 1 of the ALDS.

The long ball was a big part of Weaver’s problem, as eight of his 10 home runs allowed in 2025 came following his IL stint.  His 27.5% grounder rate was one of the worst in the league, and well below the 38.7% grounder rate he’d posted over nine previous big league seasons.  The big question facing the Blue Jays or any other suitors is whether or not this susceptibility to home runs is a new reality for Weaver, or either a lingering after-effect of his hamstring injury or perhaps just because of some tipped pitches.

As Nicholson-Smith notes, spending huge money on a closer probably isn’t an ideal situation for Toronto’s front office, so Weaver represents an option a tier below Suarez’s asking price.  Beyond signing a reliever, another option would be to add bullpen help via the trade market, and The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon write that the Blue Jays “are considering” the idea of trading an outfielder for a reliever.

Nathan Lukes, Myles Straw, Joey Loperfido, “and a few others” are candidates for such a deal.  Presumably this would mean minor league depth options like Jonatan Clase, and not presumptive starters like Daulton Varsho, Addison Barger, or Davis Schneider.  (The Blue Jays probably wouldn’t mind moving Anthony Santander, yet Toronto would have to eat a huge chunk of Santander’s remaining contract in the aftermath of his injury-marred down year.)

Lukes was a part-timer over his first two seasons with Toronto, but emerged as a regular in 2025, hitting .255/.323/.407 over 438 plate appearances (103 wRC+).  The left-handed hitting Lukes primarily played against right-handed pitching, though his splits were only somewhat better against righties than lefties.  Lukes can play all three outfield positions, and has delivered passable glovework in center field while excelling in corner outfield roles.

Outfield-needy teams could certainly view Lukes as a candidate for at least strong-side platoon duty.  He is also controllable through the 2030 season as a probable Super Two candidate when he gains arbitration eligibility next winter, though the late-blooming Lukes is already 31 years old.  The 26-year-old Loperfido is another player with long-term control since he has barely over a full year of MLB service time, and after he hit .333/.379/.500 over 104 PA for the Jays in 2025, rival clubs might be keen to see what he could do with more playing time.

This winter’s center field market is thin enough that Straw could be viewed as a glove-first starter.  Straw has never been much of a hitter throughout his eight MLB seasons, but posting a 91 wRC+ in 2025 (from a .262/.313/.267 slash line over 299 PA) counts as a relative surge by Straw’s standards.  Some teams will view that as an acceptable level of offense from a player who can deliver Gold Glove-worthy defense in center field.

Straw is the most expensive of this trio, as he is owed $7MM in 2026, and the Blue Jays hold an $8MM club option on his services for 2027 (with a $1.75MM buyout) and an $8.5MM club option for 2028 ($500K buyout).  As per the terms of the trade that brought Straw from Cleveland to Toronto last winter, the Guardians are covering $1MM in salary this year and will pay $1.75MM towards either the 2027 buyout or salary.

A $6MM immediate price tag for a superb defensive center fielder isn’t outlandish, and it is a testament to Straw’s bounce-back year that he has regained some value after being a salary dump for the Guardians last offseason.  Beyond just the statistics and the salary, however, Rosenthal/Sammon note that Straw’s reputation as a great locker room leader must be valued by both trade suitors and the Blue Jays, given how close-knit Toronto’s clubhouse was during their playoff run.

It makes for a difficult tightrope for the Jays to walk this winter, as while the team obviously wants to retain their 2025 magic on and off the field, some upgrades are needed.  Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce are already big new additions to the pitching staff, and beyond the possibility of a Bo Bichette reunion, signing a Kyle Tucker or an Alex Bregman would bring an entire new dimension to the lineup.  Nicholson-Smith suggests that if all of Bichette, Tucker, and Bregman signed elsewhere, Toronto wouldn’t necessarily feel the need to seek out another prominent hitter, as the team has trust in its core.  Such a decision would carry some risk, as the Jays would be hoping Santander regains his old form, and the rest of the lineup continues basically its team-wide breakout performance.

Jose Berrios’ situation has also been a subplot of Toronto’s offseason, as the Blue Jays are reportedly open to trading the veteran starter, though that’ll be a tricky endeavor considering Berrios’ down year and the three years and $66 remaining on his contract.  There have been rumblings that Berrios isn’t happy with his status with the team, as he was removed from the rotation late in the season and (ostensibly due to an injury) wasn’t part of the playoff roster.  According to The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon, Berrios hasn’t requested a trade.

GM Ross Atkins shared some details on Berrios when speaking with Bannon and other reporters on Monday, saying Berrios was indeed “disappointed that he wasn’t in our rotation.  He handled it well….We’re never going to have a situation where we have 40 players or even 26 players that are feeling great about the opportunity that they were given.”  The Blue Jays still view Berrios as a starter going into 2026, and rotation depth might be critical given how Shane Bieber isn’t necessarily a lock for Opening Day due to late-season forearm fatigue.

Mets Notes: King, Senga, Scott, Minter, Alonso

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The Mets were linked to Michael King’s market earlier this week, and the team’s interest is developed enough that the two sides had a video meeting, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reports.  Sherman adds that King’s past experience pitching in New York with the Yankees is a plus for the Mets, and the likelihood that King will sign a somewhat shorter-term contract matches the Amazins’ preference to avoid long-term commitments to pitchers.

MLB Trade Rumors did project King for a four-year, $80MM deal, while ranking the right-hander 14th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents.  At least eight other teams besides the Mets have been connected to King, so it’s possible there’s enough interest for King to lock in a four-year guarantee just because frontline pitching is such a valued asset.  That said, the 2024 season represents King’s only full season as a starter, as he was limited to 15 starts and 73 1/3 innings with the Padres last season due primarily to a pinched nerve in his shoulder, and then a bout of knee inflammation.

King felt confident enough in his market to reject San Diego’s qualifying offer, and so any team that signs the righty will have to cough up some kind of draft compensation.  For a luxury tax-paying team like the Mets, the penalty for signing a qualified free agent is particularly steep, as New York would have to surrender $1MM in international bonus pool money as well as their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2026 draft.

There has been speculation that King might be open to accepting a shorter-term contract with an opt-out clause or two, perhaps so he could re-enter the market as soon as next winter on the heels of a healthy and productive season.  Giving up two picks for just one year of King carries some risk for the Mets even if that would fit their short-term window, and if King has a good enough year that he’s willing to opt out, that’s also a boost to the pitching staff.  Given how New York’s rotation was beset by injuries in 2025, the Mets would probably prefer to add a pitcher with more of a proven track record of durability, but acquiring such a player could come with a higher price tag of years or money.

Speaking of the Mets’ injury-plagued rotation, president of baseball operations David Stearns gave a few updates on the staff while speaking with SNY’s Ben Krimmel, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (multiple links), and other reporters at the Winter Meetings.  Perhaps the most noteworthy update focused on Kodai Senga, who Stearns said is feeling “as good physically as he has since that 2023 season.”  The executive called this “the most encouraging development we’ve had in terms of our offseason player progression,” and said Senga was planning to return to the U.S. from Japan to throw around the end of December.

After bursting onto the MLB scene with a fantastic 2023 campaign, Senga pitched in just one game in 2024, and then more injuries and a downturn in form led to the righty tossing just 113 1/3 frames for the Mets this past season.  Senga got off to a terrific start in 2025 but never seemed the same after a month-long stint on the IL due to a hamstring strain.  After posting a 5.90 ERA over what ended up being his final 39 2/3 MLB innings of the season, Senga agreed to be optioned to Triple-A in September, and he allowed five earned runs over two starts and 9 2/3 innings with Syracuse.

Reports indicate that the Mets are open to trading Senga, and moving on from the last two years and $28MM of his contract.  For his part, Senga wants to stay with the Mets, and his 10-team no-trade clause gives him some degree of control over his fate.  Considering how the Amazins need pitching themselves, simply keeping Senga is also certainly an option, especially if the club is encouraged that he’ll be able to stay healthy.  Then again, Stearns’ comments may also be read as an executive perhaps trying to calm any doubts about Senga’s health in order to help facilitate a trade.

In other rotation news, Stearns said Christian Scott will be fully ready for the start of Spring Training.  Scott underwent a Tommy John/internal brace hybrid procedure in September 2024 that kept the right-hander sidelined for the entirety of the 2025 campaign.  This absence made Scott a bit of a forgotten man behind other highly-touted Mets pitching prospects, yet it wasn’t long ago that Scott was himself a well-regarded arm who made a rapid climb up the minor league ladder.  Scott made his MLB debut in 2024, posting a 4.56 ERA over nine starts and 47 1/3 innings before being sidelined by injury.

A.J. Minter is also returning from a season-ending surgery, as the reliever’s 2025 campaign was cut short by a torn lat muscle in May.  The lengthy rehab process could extend into the 2026 season, as Stearns said it isn’t a guarantee that Minter will be ready by Opening Day, though Minter isn’t expected to miss much time if he does need to begin the year on the injured list.

The Mets have gotten little return on last offseason’s two-year, $22MM investment in Minter, and it isn’t great that there’s still a question mark hanging over his immediate availability for 2026.  The veteran southpaw’s 2024 campaign was also hampered by hip problems that eventually required a season-ending surgery, so it has been some time since Minter was fully healthy.  Between Minter’s status and the free agency of Edwin Diaz and several other members of the 2025 relief corps, it is no wonder that New York continues to be focused on more bullpen additions, beyond their three-year deal with Devin Williams.

Stearns also addressed Pete Alonso’s upcoming visit to the Winter Meetings, as Alonso (who lives in Tampa) is expected to head to Orlando to conduct in-person meetings with the Orioles, Red Sox, and any other teams interested in his services.  While the Mets remain interested in re-signing the Polar Bear, Stearns said “I think Pete knows us really well, and I think we know Pete really well.  I think he’ll take the time here to perhaps meet with organizations he doesn’t know quite as well, and I’m sure we’ll be in touch.”

Cardinals Notes: Nootbaar, Cameron, Pitching

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As one of the few teams in baseball in true rebuild mode, the Cardinals are open to offers on most players on their roster, yet some of the Cards’ most-cited trade candidates may be a little more available than others.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hears from sources on rival teams that the Cardinals don’t seem to be “actively seeking to trade” outfielder Lars Nootbaar.  This doesn’t necessarily mean that Nootbaar won’t be dealt, of course, but there are also some obvious reasons why the Cardinals might want to wait until beyond this offseason to move the 28-year-old.

Injuries have been a subplot of Nootbaar’s career, and while he hit new career highs in games played (135) and plate appearances (583) in 2025, he underwent surgery in October on both of his heels.  The surgery was meant to address Haglund’s deformities, which are bone spurs that develop on the heel bone near the base of the Achilles tendon.  It seems likely that playing through this discomfort led to Nootbaar’s underwhelming numbers in 2025, and it isn’t yet known if the recovery from the procedure will allow Nootbaar to be ready for Opening Day.

Between the health question mark and Nootbaar’s 96 wRC+ (from 13 homers and a .234/.325/.361 slash line), St. Louis would probably be selling low if Nootbaar was traded this winter.  As such, it makes sense that the Cardinals would hang onto Nootbaar for now and see if he’s able to bounce back in the first half of the 2026 season, so a trade deadline move might be more realistic.

Trading Sonny Gray to the Red Sox cleared $20MM off of the Cardinals’ payroll ledger for 2026, and the team would also save a lot of money if Nolan Arenado or Willson Contreras were traded.  There isn’t any similar financial pressure involved with a potential Nootbaar trade, as he is projected to earn $5.7MM this winter in the second of three trips through the arbitration process.  That extra year of control gives the Cards more flexibility in allowing Nootbaar to get fully healthy before more properly shopping him to any interested teams.

President of baseball operations Chaim Bloom has been open about his team’s desire to add starting pitching, whether it’s younger arms or (likely on short-term deals) more experienced hurlers.  The Gray trade brought Richard Fitts and prospect Brandon Clarke into the fold, and St. Louis is expected to seek out more pitchers in other trades or in free agency.  Whether or not the Cards explore free agent pitchers will hinge on what they can land on the trade front, Goold writes, so it may be yet be a while before the Cardinals look too deeply at signings given how much interest they’re getting in their various trade chips.

Other teams’ trade endeavors could also delay matters.  For instance, Goold notes that some teams interested in Brendan Donovan for their second base vacancy also have interest in the Rays’ Brandon Lowe or even the Diamondbacks’ Ketel Marte.  If one of those players is dealt elsewhere, that eliminates one Donovan suitor, but also puts more pressure on other interested teams to up their offers to St. Louis in order to land a second baseman (though Donovan’s versatility also doesn’t limit his market just to keystone-needy teams).

Perhaps related to both the Cardinals’ pitching search and the Royals’ known interest in Donovan, Goold reports that the Cards “have had interest before in” Kansas City’s Noah Cameron.  The 26-year-old southpaw is coming off an impressive debut season that saw Cameron finish fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting after posting a 2.99 ERA over 138 1/3 innings.

Between Cameron’s ability and multiple remaining years of team control, it would take a whole lot to pry the left-hander away from the Royals.  While K.C. president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo has discussed his team’s openness to trading from its pitching depth for much-needed outfield help, Cameron would likely be one of the last arms the Royals would prefer to move.  That said, adding a real impact bat to the lineup might require an impact pitcher in return, and Donovan’s market has been so crowded that the Royals might make to make a special offer to break away from the pack.

Marlins Notes: Cabrera, Alcantara, Weathers, Outfield, Bullpen

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While much of the focus regarding the Marlins this offseason has been on their intent to spend more aggressively (relatively speaking) and bolster the lineup, the Fish still have a pair of prominent trade candidates in the rotation. Right-handers Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are on wishlists for pitching-hungry clubs around the league, though neither is a lock to be moved.

Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout of Fish On First reported last week that the organization “expects” Alcantara to be with the club come Opening Day. MLB.com’s Christina De Nicola offers a similar sentiment today, suggesting that Cabrera is the likelier of the two to be moved this offseason — if either is traded at all. Miami isn’t actively shopping either pitcher at the moment, she writes, though it’s all but a given that there’ll be an uptick in inquiries at next week’s Winter Meetings. De Nicola also lists lefty Ryan Weathers as a potential trade candidate while rightly noting that the Fish would be selling low on a talented southpaw after consecutive injury-plagued seasons.

Acquired in the 2023 trade sending Garrett Cooper to the Padres, Weathers has been a steal for Miami when healthy. That’s been a major caveat, unfortunately. A lat strain, flexor strain and finger strain have combined to limit the former No. 7 overall draft pick to just 24 starts dating back to Opening Day 2024. Weathers has totaled 125 innings in that time and notched a 3.74 ERA with a 22% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate. That league-average strikeout rate is backed by a roughly average 11.7% swinging-strike rate. Weathers has sat 96.2 mph on his heater since ’24 and kept a strong 45.6% of batted balls against him on the ground. As with Cabrera, he’s a clear injury risk but has had some recent success and comes with another three seasons of club control.

Cabrera stands as the prize of the Marlins’ potential trade candidates in the rotation, but because of his age (27), affordable salary ($3.7MM projection, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), former top prospect status and 2025 results (3.53 ERA, 25.8 K%, 8.3 BB%, 46.6 GB% in 137 2/3 innings), he also surely comes with the highest asking price.

Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN wrote just this morning that Miami has asked for “premium prospects” in for any club that has poked around on Cabrera, and the right-hander’s lengthy injury history has left interested parties wary of making such a commitment. The 2025 season was Cabrera’s first reaching 100 innings in the majors, and he’s spent time on the injured list with an elbow sprain, blisters, shoulder impingement (three times) and tendinitis in his elbow — all since 2021.

Certainly, the Marlins could use their deep supply of starting pitching to bring in some bats to help the lineup, but free agency remains a viable path as well. They’ve primarily focused on first base to this point, but Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports that president of baseball ops Peter Bendix and his staff have begun to broaden their search. Miami is also looking into potential outfield and third base acquisitions, believing that the versatility of players like Connor Norby and Griffin Conine could allow them to target bats at other positions.

It’s already known that the Marlins have been considering Norby at first base. Jackson adds that the Fish are planning to get Conine some work at first next spring and also believe that outfielder Heriberto Hernandez could be an option there.

The bullpen has been another point of focus for Bendix & Co., with reports tying Miami to prominent names like Devin Williams (who has since signed with the Mets), Raisel Iglesias (who re-signed in Atlanta) and Pete Fairbanks (who Bendix knows well from his days as Rays general manager). Jackson adds veteran relievers Kyle Finnegan, Tyler Rogers and twin brother Taylor Rogers as three more bullpen arms who intrigue the Marlins.

Finnegan, 34, has closed games for the division-rival Nationals for years but elevated his production to new heights following a summer trade to the Tigers. Detroit pushed Finnegan to use his splitter more and tweaked his release point, and the right-hander was flat-out dominant in the Motor City, emerging as one of manager A.J. Hinch’s go-to relievers. He tossed 18 innings of 1.50 ERA ball following the trade and saw his strikeout rate jump from 19.6% in D.C. to an eye-popping 34.8% in Detroit.

The Rogers brothers have lengthy track records themselves. Taylor, a lefty, was a high-end setup man and All-Star closer with the Twins during his peak years from 2017-22. He’s settled into more of a middle relief role since signing with the Giants — where he teamed with his brother — and subsequently being traded to the Reds and Cubs.

While Taylor was the prominent name early in the brothers’ careers, it’s Tyler who is now the higher-profile reliever. He’s pitched 378 1/3 innings of 2.71 ERA ball dating back to 2021, including a pristine 1.98 earned run average in 77 1/3 frames between the Giants and Mets in 2025. Tyler doesn’t miss many bats, as one would expect from a soft-tossing right-handed submariner whose sinker averages 83.5 mph, but he has impeccable command (2.2% walk rate since 2024) and is all but impossible to square up due to the deception in his delivery. Tyler has the slowest “fastball” and lowest whiff percentage in the majors but also sits in the 95th percentile (or better) of big league pitchers in terms of opponents’ exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

At the moment, Miami has a projected 2026 payroll of just $59MM, per RosterResource. They’re sitting just under $70MM in luxury tax obligations. The general thinking has been that, like the A’s last offseason, the Marlins will want to push that CBT number closer to $105MM in order to avoid any type of MLBPA grievance that might jeopardize their revenue-sharing status. That could be achieved by bringing in free agents, trading for veterans on guaranteed salaries, or extending players already on the roster. The Marlins have reportedly spoken to both Kyle Stowers and Eury Perez about long-term deals; talks with either player could pick back up later in the offseason.

Blue Jays Notes: Helsley, Berrios, Management Extensions

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The Blue Jays had “at least preliminary interest” in Ryan Helsley before the right-hander signed with the Orioles, The Athletic’s Mitch Bannon reports.  Toronto has shown past interest (both last offseason and at the trade deadline) in trading for Helsley when he was still a member of the Cardinals, so it tracks that the Jays would’ve again considered Helsley in free agency.  As it turned out, the Blue Jays will now have to deal with Helsley pitching for a division rival while Toronto’s own search for bullpen help continues.

Such pitchers as Helsley, Raisel Iglesias, Phil Maton, Edwin Diaz, and Pete Fairbanks have been linked to the Jays thus far, and the first three of those names have already come off the board.  Given how Ross Atkins’ front office is known for casting a wide berth in its free agent explorations, it’s probably safe to guess that the Jays have called about most or all of the top relievers on the market, ranging from set-up men to proven closers like Diaz.  Atkins said after the season that the team was open to the possibility of moving Jeff Hoffman into a set-up role, thus opening the door for Toronto to seek out another top saves candidate.

Of course, the Jays’ biggest winter moves to date have come in the rotation, not the bullpen.  Shane Bieber made the first move himself when he decided against opting out of the final year of his contract, and then the Jays made the priciest free agent signing in franchise history by inking Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210MM contract.  Within less than a month after the end of the World Series, the Blue Jays rotation suddenly went from a question mark to all but settled.

The projected starting five looks like Cease, Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, and Jose Berrios, with Eric Lauer on hand as a swingman.  Adam Macko, Ricky Tiedemann and Bowden Francis are further depth options.  It’s a deeper group with a higher ceiling than the starting pitching mix that got the Jays to the World Series, though it’s possible another starter could still be added.

To make room in the rotation for a higher-caliber arm, the Jays could consider trading Berrios.  Bannon (in a piece for the Athletic) and the Toronto Star’s Gregor Chisholm each floated the concept, as Berrios ended up being the odd man out of the starting mix even before a bout of elbow inflammation kept him sidelined for the Blue Jays’ entire playoff run.  The Jays planned to transition Berrios to bullpen work prior to the postseason, and Berrios made all of one relief appearance before hitting the injured list.

Trading Berrios would be tricky for a few reasons — his eight-team no-trade clause, the three years and $66MM remaining on his contract, and the opt-out clause Berrios holds after the 2026 season.  There’s also the fact that Berrios was pretty unspectacular in 2025, posting a 4.17 ERA and a set of below-average Statcast numbers across 166 innings.  Any Berrios suitor would be counting on a bounce-back, naturally, but primarily might be interested in the veteran righty as a durable source of innings.

Berrios’ ability to eat innings makes him valuable to the Jays as well, considering how their pitchers added more mileage during an extended postseason run.  Moving Berrios would open up some payroll space for Toronto as well, though in limited fashion.  It’s pretty unlikely that the Jays would find a team willing to take the entirety of Berrios’ $66MM salary, plus spending capacity might not really be a concern for a Blue Jays club that already shown it is willing to stretch its payroll even further in search of a championship.

Turning to other topics from Chisholm’s mailbag piece, he believes the Blue Jays might’ve already finalized extensions for Atkins, team president Mark Shapiro, and manager John Schneider if the club hadn’t still been playing on November 1.  Regardless, it just seems like a matter of time before the trio are all officially retained.  Shapiro’s contract is already technically up, and Atkins and Schneider’s deals are up after the 2026 season (the Jays already exercised their club option on Schneider for 2026).

AL East Notes: Bellinger, Tucker, Maton, Campbell

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As usual, the Yankees have been linked to many of the top names on the free agent market, with Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger noted as two of the more prominent players on New York’s radar.  How exactly the front office is ordering their internal wish list remains to be seen, but Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that Tucker “appears to be a backup plan” to Bellinger.  Familiarity and defensive flexibility are the key elements, as Heyman notes that the Yankees already know Bellinger can handle playing in the pressurized environment of the Bronx.  Tucker is primarily a right fielder who would have to move over to left field in New York due to Aaron Judge’s presence, while Bellinger brings more defensive utility as a player capable of playing all three outfield positions and first base.

It can also be assumed that the Yankees would prefer paying Bellinger’s lower price tag  — MLBTR projects Tucker to land an 11-year, $400MM deal, whereas Bellinger is projected for a relatively more modest $140MM over five years.  Signing Tucker would also cost the Yankees draft picks and international bonus money, whereas those qualifying offer-related penalties don’t apply if Bellinger is re-signed.

Here’s some more from around the AL East…

  • The Blue Jays had interest in Phil Maton before the veteran reliever signed with the Cubs, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports.  This tracks with the Jays’ previous interest in the righty, as Toronto was previously linked to Maton when he was a free agent last winter and at the trade deadline before Maton was dealt from the Cardinals to the Rangers.  Toronto is known to be looking for a reliever to supplement or even replace Jeff Hoffman in the closer’s role, but Maton also would’ve been a good addition as a bullpen workhorse who has shown an ability to handle higher-leverage work in the past.
  • Kristian Campbell will be playing winter ball, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports, as the Red Sox continue to look to get Campbell on track after a shaky debut season in the majors.  A meteoric rise in his first two pro seasons earned Campbell a spot on Boston’s Opening Day and an eight-year, $60MM extension shortly thereafter, but he hit only .223/.319/.345 over 263 plate appearances as pitchers adjusted quickly to Campbell after his hot start.  Demoted to Triple-A Worcester in June, Campbell hit decently well at Triple-A but with little power, and he also was toggled around the diamond seeing time at first base, second base, and all three outfield positions.  Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told Speier and other reporters earlier in November that Campbell was focused on regaining some weight and becoming stronger to better handle the grind of a full season.  The pricey contract along will keep Campbell involved in Boston’s plans, though it remains to be seen how he’ll fit into a 2026 team that has a crowded outfield, and has been linked to multiple major free agent infielders.

Marlins Notes: Cabrera, Alcantara, King

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The Marlins are gearing up for what could be their busiest offseason in years, as all indication point to at least some willingness to spend in free agency this winter coming off a 79-win campaign in 2025 where the team enjoyed the emergence of players like Kyle Stowers and Jakob Marsee as valuable pieces. At the same time, they’ve got plenty of holes that could make it difficult to compete in what figures to be a stacked NL East next year with the Mets, Phillies, and Braves all expected to try and improve this winter.

That leaves Miami in a difficult spot where they figure to simultaneously try and improve while also building for the future. That could leave the team hesitant to deal away some players that were looked at as likely trade assets even a few months ago. According to Kevin Barral and Isaac Azout of Fish on First, right-handers Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara are hardly locks to be traded this winter. Alcantara, in particular, is someone that the organization “expects” to still be in Miami on Opening Day.

There’s certainly some logic in that, as the 2022 NL Cy Young award winner was one of the league’s best pitchers in the not-too-distant past. A season where Alcantara pitched to a 5.36 ERA across 31 starts surely lowered his value, but if the Marlins still believe in the 30-year-old there’s no reason to sell low. That’s especially true because he’s one of the few players on the Marlins’ roster making significant money. There have been some indications recently that the Marlins could be worried about a potential grievance from the MLBPA due to their lack of spending, and trading Alcantara away would be counterproductive to any efforts to prove that the club is using revenue sharing dollars on the on-field product.

That leaves 27-year-old Cabrera as the more likely piece to move of the pair, though Barral and Azout both note that the Marlins would need to receive an “overwhelming return” to pull the trigger on a trade. That’s a sensible stance to take. Cabrera enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, with a 3.53 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 26 starts. He struck out 25.8% of his opponents against a walk rate of just 8.3% this year, and his fastball average 97.0 mph on the radar gun, the fastest velocity of his career so far. A young starter on the upswing with three years of team control would surely be one of the hottest commodities on the trade market, and the Marlins have no reason to rush a trade for that reason. The Mets and Cubs were among the teams connected to Cabrera when he was on the market over the summer, and both appear to be in the market for rotation help again this winter.

Trading an impact starter may not necessarily be in the cards for Miami this winter, and if they don’t they’ll retain a frightening on-paper rotation of Alcantara, Cabrera, Eury Perez, Braxton Garrett, and Ryan Weathers with players like Max Meyer, Robby Snelling, Janson Junk, and Ryan Gusto providing depth behind that group. There’s enough health questions within that group of arms that it’s not impossible to fit another starter into the mix, and there’s been previous connections drawn between the Marlins and right-hander Michael King. Barral and Azout suggest that a reunion with the club’s 12th-round pick from the 2016 draft is “highly unlikely,” however.

That’s perhaps not too much of a surprise. While King is coming off a down season where he made just 15 starts due to shoulder issues, MLBTR predicted that he’d land a four-year, $80MM contract in free agency this offseason. That would be quite a step up for a Marlins team that hasn’t spent much beyond the $53MM contract they gave to Avisail Garcia back in 2021 in recent years, at least via free agency. Adding a player like King at that sort of price tag would be a bold move, especially given the fact that the starting rotation is already a strength for the club. The Cubs and Orioles have both been tied to King in free agency this offseason already, and more teams are surely interested in the right-hander after he flashed ace-level potential with the Padres in 2024.

Reds Notes: Lineup, Free Agent Pursuits, De La Cruz

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The Reds enter this offseason on the heels of a playoff berth that ended almost as quickly as it came, having been swept by the eventual World Series champion Dodgers in two games during the NL Wild Card series. There’s still reason for optimism headed into next year thanks to a fantastic rotation led by Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott, but Cincinnati’s offense could clearly use some help. It can be hard for a team with the Reds’ small market budget to make substantial upgrades via free agency, but Ken Rosenthal, Will Sammon, and Katie Woo of The Athletic write that the club can be flexible as it tries to upgrade the lineup thanks to their existing players’ significant positional versatility.

According to Rosenthal et al., the Reds’ lineup only has three truly locked down positions as things stand: recently acquired third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes and star shortstop Elly De La Cruz are locked into the left side of the infield, and Noelvi Marte appears to be set as the club’s everyday right fielder going forward. Setting catcher (where the trio of Tyler Stephenson, Jose Trevino, and Ben Rortvedt seem fairly entrenched) aside, that leaves two outfield spots, two infield spots, and the DH slot for a host of players to jockey for playing time in. Spencer Steer, Sal Stewart, Matt McLain, Gavin Lux, TJ Friedl, Will Benson, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand makes seven players currently on the roster for five spots in the lineup, before any external additions. Steer and Friedl seem like the best bets of that group to be locked into regular playing time, though Stewart will surely get an extended opportunity as well coming off an impressive cup of coffee in the big leagues down the stretch.

Friedl has been one of Cincinnati’s best hitters in recent years. While he was limited to just 85 games by injuries in 2024, he earned some down-ballot MVP consideration for a four-win 2023 season where he hit 18 homers, stole 27 bases, and posted a 117 wRC+ in 138 games. This past year saw him look more or less recovered from his injury-plagued 2024, hitting .261/.364/.372 with less power and speed than he flashed in 2023 but a career-best 11.8% walk rate to make up for it. Friedl’s .364 on-base percentage ranked 17th in the majors among all qualified hitters this year, and he’s sure to be an asset to the Reds’ offense whether he ultimately ends up in left field or center field. Steer, meanwhile, has been more of a league average hitter in the past two seasons after enjoying a strong 2023 season, but has average 21 homers and 16 steals over the past three seasons.

Rosenthal et al. suggest that Steer could wind up at either first base or in left field, while Stewart could play either first or second base. With Friedl capable of playing either open outfield spot, Lux experienced at both second base and in left field, and McLain able to handle both the keystone and center, there’s plenty of room for moving parts in the Reds’ lineup. That’s good news for a team that needs to add offense, as the Reds can afford to be opportunistic and not worrying as much about positional fit. If an infielder like Jorge Polanco becomes available, it would be easy enough for the Reds to simply plug him into second base, leaving McLain and Lux to move around the diamond in utility roles while Stewart takes over first base, Steer slides to left and Friedl handles center. Alternatively, a first baseman like Ryan O’Hearn could push Stewart over to second, or an outfielder like Cedric Mullins could push Steer to first base.

Speculatively speaking, that would appear to leave McLain, Lux, Benson, and Encarnacion-Strand without a position headed into 2026, although Rosenthal et al. did suggest the possibility that Benson could platoon with an outfielder acquired in free agency, which could be sensible if the Reds were to land a right-handed bat with significant platoon splits like Rob Refsnyder. Keeping those players in the fold as depth to protect against injuries and under-performance would be a valid path to take for the Reds, though it’s also possible that a trade or two could be made at some point this winter that would help to thin the glut of positional talent jockeying for playing time.

Even as the team looks for external help in the lineup, there’s reason to believe improvements could be on the horizon internally next year, as well. Manny Randhawa and Mark Sheldon of MLB.com recently relayed comments from club GM Nick Krall regarding De La Cruz’s health this offseason. While Krall had previously suggested that De La Cruz played through a “partial tear” of his quadriceps late in the 2025 season, he later clarified that it was actually a quad strain that De La Cruz was dealing with. Quad strains are defined as a partial tear of the muscle, but Krall noted that his wording suggested the injury was more severe than it actually was.

Whatever the specifics of De La Cruz’s injury may have been, the fact that he was playing through something helps to explain his repeated defensive miscues at shortstop in the final months of the 2025 campaign, as well as his lackluster .236/.303/.363 slash line after the All-Star break this season. That creates some reason for optimism that De La Cruz will be able to rebound and turn in a performance closer to his 2024 form (when he hit 25 homers, stole 67 bases, and finished 8th in NL MVP voting) next year. For a Reds club that seems unlikely to broach the top of the market for hitters like Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber, having De La Cruz performing at a star level to anchor the lineup is all the more important.

Cardinals Notes: Donovan, Gorman, Nootbaar, Burleson, Pirates, Pitching

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Brendan Donovan has been drawing as much trade interest as any player in baseball, owing both to Donovan’s value as a left-handed hitter with defensive versatility and to the Cardinals’ rebuilding status.  The Astros, Pirates, Royals, and Guardians have been publicly linked to Donovan’s trade market, and with these and more clubs in pursuit of the All-Star, the timing seems right for the Cards to cash in while Donovan’s value is at its peak.

That said, St. Louis isn’t required to move Donovan this offseason, since he still has two seasons remaining of arbitration eligibility.  As The Athletic’s Katie Woo frames the situation, if the Cards can’t find the big return they want for Donovan, the team “will pivot to moving at least one of” Lars Nootbaar or Nolan Gorman.  In another piece from Woo, Will Sammon, and Ken Rosenthal, Alec Burleson is another player the Cardinals won’t move “unless…blown away by an offer.”

All four of these hitters mentioned are lefty-swingers, so trading any of them would help balance out the St. Louis lineup and perhaps clear some room for another left-handed hitter in shortstop prospect JJ Wetherholt.  Since Masyn Winn is an elite defensive shortstop, the Cardinals’ plan for Wetherholt seems to be to break him into the big leagues as a second or third baseman, so moving Donovan or Gorman in particular would clear a path in that regard.  Trading Nolan Arenado would obviously also open up third base, though Arenado’s contract and no-trade protection makes moving him a trickier proposition than any of these other players, even though Arenado has expressed more of an openness to be dealt than he did last winter.

On the surface, the Cardinals’ stance is obvious.  Donovan and Burleson were both much more productive than Gorman or Nootbaar in 2025, so naturally the latter two players seem to have less of a role in the Cards’ future plans.  Formerly a top prospect in his own right, Gorman seemed to be figuring things out with a 27-homer season in 2023, but he has hit just .204/.284/.385 with 33 homers in 804 plate appearances over the last two seasons, with a whopping 287 strikeouts underlying Gorman’s contact problems.  Nootbaar had been a more consistent performer before his numbers fell off during an injury-plagued 2025 campaign.  The biggest obstacle to a Nootbaar trade seems to be his health, as he may not be ready for Opening Day following surgery to correct Haglund’s deformities on both his heels.

Moving Gorman or Nootbaar would obviously bring back less of a trade return than Donovan or Burleson.  The Rangers were one team known to have interest in Nootbaar before word of his surgery became public, and the club’s subsequent trade for Brandon Nimmo would seemingly indicate that Texas has moved on from Nootbaar.  The Pirates have shown interest in all of Nootbaar, Gorman, and Donovan, and Woo reports that Pittsburgh has also asked the team about Burleson.

Donovan and Nootbaar are controlled through the 2027 season, while Gorman and Burleson are arbitration-eligible for just the first time this winter and won’t be eligible free agency until the 2028-29 offseason.  Burleson is coming off the best of his four MLB seasons, as he won Silver Slugger honors (from the NL utility position) after hitting .290/.343/.459 with 18 home runs over 546 PA in 2025.  Burleson split his time between first base and both corner outfield slots this year, and while he is only passable defensively, his ability to play multiple positions gives the Cardinals some lineup flexibility.  The appeal is obvious for a Pirates team looking for help all over the diamond, and for offensive help in general.

While the two NL Central rivals have rarely lined up on trades over the last few decades, the Pirates’ young pitching depth carries obvious trade appeal to a St. Louis team looking to restock their system with such arms.  This week’s trade of Sonny Gray to the Red Sox not only cleared $20M off the Cardinals’ books, but it brought back pitchers who can help the Cards in 2026 (Richard Fitts) and further in the future (prospect Brandon Clarke).

Speaking with Woo, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold and other reporters after the trade, Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said his team is aiming to add more pitching over the course of its offseason moves.  This could include more experienced arms to eat innings and act as mentors to the younger hurlers, though Bloom indicated that such veterans might be more shorter-term additions.

“Not to put them in the way of any of our youth, but to make sure we have the right insulation up and down that rotation,” Bloom said. “We want to create some competition.  We want to make sure we have options.  And that we allow our young guys to flourish while making sure that next wave that we hope is coming doesn’t get pressed into service before it’s their time.  We want to make sure they’re ready for the highest level of baseball before we throw them into the fire.  So we will look to add to our rotation — whether it’s more youth or a veteran — as the winter goes on.”

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