Notes

Veteran lefty Steven Matz has missed most of the 2024 season due to back issues, including a setback in his rehab back in June as he was building up his pitch toward a return to the big leagues. Fortunately for the Cardinals, however, it appears the southpaw is once again nearing a return.

As noted by MLB.com’s John Denton, manager Oli Marmol told reporters yesterday afternoon that Matz, who had pitched four scoreless frames on 76 pitches the night prior, was nearing a return to the big leagues. Lynn Worthy of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch added that the Cardinals currently plan to have Matz return to St. Louis to be evaluated by the team’s medical staff before they decide whether or not he should return to the big league staff immediately, though (per Denton) Marmol indicated that the veteran is likely to make one more rehab start before returning to the majors.

The 33-year-old could provide some relief for a rotation that has struggled somewhat this season, with only Sonny Gray providing consistently above-average performances. Gray has posted decent results with excellent peripherals as the club’s top starter, with a 3.93 ERA (109 ERA+) and a 3.14 FIP in 22 starts this year. Andre Pallante has been another bright spot, impressing in 13 starts this year with a 3.75 ERA and nearly-matching 3.76 FIP since entering a rotation role in late May despite a lackluster 18.8% strikeout rate in those contests.

Looking beyond that duo, however, the results have left much to be desired. Miles Mikolas has posted a 5.41 ERA that’s 21% worse than league average by ERA+ and is the worst figure he’s posted in a season since returning to stateside ball in 2018 following a stint in Japan, while Lance Lynn had struggled to a 4.78 ERA with a 4.66 FIP in his last ten starts before going on the injured list with right knee inflammation at the end of July. St. Louis had spent much of this season leaning on Kyle Gibson for back-of-the-rotation consistency and attempted to fortify their rotation by adding Erick Fedde at the trade deadline, but the pair have posted ERAs of 6.11 and 5.63 respectively since the calendar flipped to August.

Of course, Matz is hardly a sure bet to provide quality innings out of the rotation himself. The lefty’s Cardinals tenure has been a bumpy one, as he posted a 5.25 ERA in 48 innings during his first season with the club and followed that up with a 5.72 ERA in his first ten starts last year. Those struggles ultimately left him demoted to the bullpen last summer, though he managed to pitch his way back into a rotation role down the stretch and posted excellent numbers (a 1.84 ERA and a 31.2% strikeout rate) in seven starts after being reinstated as a starter. That strong finish last year left plenty of reason for optimism regarding Matz entering this year, but in six starts before being sidelined back in May he struggled badly with a 6.18 ERA.

While some of those difficulties can surely be attributed to the small sample size and an inflated .362 BABIP posted by Matz’s opponents this year, that Matz struck out just 13.7% of batters prior to going on the shelf is cause for at least some concern. If Matz looks good upon his return, it’s easy to imagine him sticking in the club’s rotation mix for the rest of the season, although it’s also possible he’ll find himself back in the bullpen at some point.

Lynn’s impending return, which could potentially come even more quickly than that of Matz, also figures to play a role in the Cardinals’ rotation decisions. The veteran right-hander has been sidelined for nearly three weeks by knee inflammation but is slowly approaching a return to action, with Marmol telling reporters (including Worthy) that Matz is expected to throw a live bullpen session early this week. That’s a notable step forward for the 37-year-old, particularly because Marmol left the door open (as noted by MLB.com’s Injury Tracker) for the righty to return to action later in the week without a rehab assignment if his upcoming session goes well.

With both Lynn and Matz seemingly nearing returns to action, the Cardinals figure to have an excess of rotation options from which they can decide how best to line up for the stretch run as they look to push their way back into postseason contention after going just 4-10 so far in the month of August. In addition to the pitching reinforcements the club expects to get, Denton notes that the club’s run prevention apparatus could be getting a lift in center field in the near future as standout defender Michael Siani has already resumed swinging a bat after being sidelined by an oblique strain just two weeks ago. Siani recently received a platelet-rich plasma injection in his abdomen to aid his return to action, which could come before the end of the month if he continues to progress quickly.