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A’s Considering Bonds

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Now that Frank Thomas is out of the picture, the A’s need a DH again.  It’s no surprise that Barry Bonds would be a good fit–after all, the A’s need to find somebody to replace Thomas’s production, and there aren’t many options out there to do that. 

Billy Beane has been chatting with Bonds’s agent, so it would appear that the A’s have no objection to taking on Bonds’s baggage.  Certainly they managed just fine with their share of "problem" guys last year.  As Lew Wolff points out in the linked article, though, Bonds may out of the A’s price range, especially if the Padres make Barry a top target.

By Jeff Sackmann

2007 MLB Free Agents: Ted Lilly

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Today let’s take a closer look at free agent southpaw Ted Lilly.

Lilly made $4MM this year, failing to hit any of his innings pitched incentives.  He’ll turn 31 in January and should be able to snag a three-year contract without a problem.  2006 was not his best season despite the career high 15 wins; Lilly’s 2004 effort was better and included an All-Star appearance.  He’s said publicly that he’d like to return to the Bay Area to play with the Giants or again with the A’s.  The Jays have some interest in retaining him at the right price.

Performance-wise you’re getting a strikeout pitcher who’s tough to hit and battle-tested in the AL East.  He’s a flyball pitcher and is prone to worse than average HRs allowed.  His control’s a problem too, as Lilly walks about four batters per nine innings.   After his fastball, Lilly mixes in an equal number of curves, sliders, and changeups.  He’s tougher on lefties but not terribly so.

Some past history on Theodore Roosevelt Lilly:

1998:
July: Traded from Dodgers to Expos in deadline deal for Mark Grudzielanek and Carlos Perez.
Tossed 213.2 innings, including winter ball.

1999:
March: Couldn’t quite crack the Expo rotation.
May: Called up for a few weeks.
June/July: MRI on left shoulder shows no significant damage.
September: Called up again.
October: Shoulder surgery.

2000:
March: Traded to Yanks along with Jake Westbrook in Hideki Irabu deal.
Pitched mostly at Triple A as a 24 year-old.

2001:
April: Called up, whiffs 10 Red Sox. Remains in rotation.
August: Suspended for nailing Scott Spiezio with a pitch.  Sent back to minors.
September: Called up, using his last option.

2002:
April: Makes team as a reliever/spot starter.  Remains in rotation after injuries to starters.
Summer: Shuttles between starting and relief with Pettitte and El Duque injuries.
July: Traded to A’s in 3-team deal involving Jeff Weaver and Carlos Pena. Enters Oakland rotation. Hits DL later that month with inflamed left shoulder.
September: Returns from DL/rehab.

2003:
March: Reworks mechanics to take strain off shoulder.
July: With Lilly struggling in rotation, a trade rumor involving Kelvim Escobar surfaces. He stays put.
September: Misses start with back spasms.
November: Traded to Toronto for Bobby Kielty.

2004:
January: Signs two-year deal.
February: Reports to camp with sore wrist but remains healthy thereafter.

2005:
February: Misses time with left shoulder tendinitis.
April: Begins season on DL but makes April starts.
May: Pitching coach Brad Arnsberg discusses Lilly’s perceived lack of intensity.
July: Biceps tendinitis sends him to the DL again.
September: Comes off DL.  Experiences shoulder blade discomfort.

2006:
January: Signs one-year, $4MM deal.
March: Makes change in follow-through. Later in month, experiences minor right shoulder injury.
April: Makes first start despite back/shoulder issues.
June: Leaves start with shoulder tightness.
August: Misses start with stiff neck. Later in month, has heated argument with manager John Gibbons after being pulled from awful start.  Gibbons gets bloody nose.
October: Lilly files for free agency.

Well, that injury history definitely rules out Baltimore.  Whoever signs Lilly is really going to have to take a long look at that left shoulder; he’s yet to throw 200 innings in the Majors.

Gotham Baseball: Mets and Yankees Rumors

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Check out the latest from Mark Healey of Gotham Baseball.  A summary is below.

Healey’s Cubs source indicates Mark Prior and Alex Rodriguez could be the main pieces of a trade.  That’d be a tough sell for Brian Cashman so I’m sure the Cubs would have to spice up such an offer.  Healey’s source mentions Mark DeRosa as a possible A-Rod replacement in New York.

A couple of names associated with the Mets include Ray Durham and Mark Mulder.  Durham is a new one for me, though the Mulder info jives with what I heard last week.  I also have strong indications from another source that a return to Oakland is "very likely" for Mulder, however.  It’ll come down to the dollars: if Mulder takes injury/incentive type money, he goes to Oakland.  Otherwise, the Mets should be the top suitor.

Healey and I are also in agreement on the Mets’ minimal interest in Julio Lugo and their intent to hang onto Lastings Milledge.

Finally, Healey’s sources call for a Tom Glavine/Greg Maddux reunion in Atlanta.  I had heard the same about Glavine, though this weekend’s New York Post mentioned that Glavine doesn’t want to give the Braves a huge discount and Atlanta’s payroll is pretty tight as long as it includes Andruw Jones.

The Hot Stove hasn’t officially begun, but it’s going to be another exciting winter.

UPDATE: Today’s AJC indicates that the Braves would hesitate to pay Glavine even $10MM. 

Olney: A’s Offer Thomas Two Years

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So the A’s second offer for Frank Thomas is two years, $8MM, not all guaranteed.  Which begs the question, is the Big Hurt still in it for the money?  Because he could command much more on the open market.

As I mentioned in Oakland’s team outlook, there’s a decent chance Beane lets Thomas walk.  It all depends on whether he’ll take a pay cut to stay.

2007 Oakland A’s

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Next up in the 2007 Team Outlooks are the Oakland Athletics.  They stand to possibly lose a couple of key players after this season.

Billy Beane’s contract obligations:

C – Jason Kendall – $8MM
C – Adam Melhuse – $0.85MM
1B – Dan Johnson – $0.33MM
2B – Mark Ellis – $3.5MM
SS – Bobby Crosby – $2.5MM
3B – Eric Chavez – $9MM
IF – Marcos Scutaro – $0.34MM
IF – D’Angelo Jimenez – $0.75MM
LF – Nick Swisher – $0.335MM
CF – Mark Kotsay – $7MM
RF – Milton Bradley – $3MM
OF – Bobby Kielty – $1.85MM
DH –

SP – Rich Harden – $2MM
SP – Dan Haren – $2.2MM
SP – Esteban Loaiza – $6MM
SP – Joe Blanton – $0.327MM
SP – Kirk Saarloos – $0.354MM
SP – Jerome Williams – $0.38MM
SP – Jason Windsor – $0.327MM

RP – Huston Street – $0.34MM
RP – Justin Duchscherer – $0.3445MM
RP – Joe Kennedy – $2.4MM
RP – Jay Witasick – $1.5MM
RP – Kiko Calero – $0.85MM
RP – Santiago Casilla – $0.327MM
RP – Chad Gaudin – $0.327MM
RP – Brad Halsey – $0.346MM
RP – Ron Flores – $0.327MM
RP – Shane Komine – $0.327MM

The A’s have roughly $60MM tied up, assuming some raises and such.  That’s about where they entered 2006 – Opening Day payroll was $62MM.

Depending on how you feel about Dan Johnson, the A’s could use some help in the form of a 1B/LF/DH player (given that Swisher can play first. If you can say one thing about Beane, it’s that he builds a versatile roster). 21 year-old top prospect Daric Barton missed most of 2006 with a broken elbow.  Upon returning he strained his hamstring.  He might have something to contribute in the Majors at some point in ’07, even if the power doesn’t arrive yet. 

One could see Beane signing a Craig Wilson to fill the void.  He could also go after Moises Alou or David Dellucci.  There’s also the option of one Barry Bonds, who would probably spend most of his time at DH.

Speaking of DH, will Frank Thomas return?  Not an easy decision for Beane.  Sure, Thomas re-established himself as one of the game’s top sluggers.  Still, he’ll be 39 next May and could require, I don’t know, a two-year, $20MM deal?  Who knows what Frank will ask for.  My gut says Beane lets him walk.

The A’s have a host of disappointing players lccked up who probably can’t help but play better in 2007.  Kotsay, Chavez, Ellis, and Crosby have not impressed.  Kotsay and Crosby will need very capable backups.  Ellis’s second half, at .271/.341/.442 seems more his level.  Plus, his defense is top-notch.  Chavez dealt with a hamstring strain, elbow and forearm tendinitis, back tightness, and even food poisoning this year.  He’s also got that chronically sore shoulder.  The A’s have no choice but to try to nurse him back to health after the playoffs.

Kotsay isn’t a great bet at this point, but the outfield is at least average offensively.  When he misses time, we’ll see plenty of Kielty, maybe Hiram Bocachica, and position shuffling out there.

The pitching staff is long on options.  If and when Harden misses time, the A’s have a laundry list of decent options to start in his place.  Jerome Williams has seen success at the big league level.  Halsey, Gaudin, Kennedy, and Windsor can all fill in.   

The difference will be that the A’s won’t have Barry Zito making 34 decent starts for them anymore.  If Harden goes down, do you really want Saarloos and one of the aforementioned starters in the rotation for an extended period of time?  The A’s signed Loaiza last offseason when it appeared they didn’t quite need him.  Beane could make a similar signing this offseason if he has the budget.  Ted Lilly has voiced a desire to return to the Bay Area, perhaps with the A’s or Giants. 

There’s really no need to mess with the bullpen.  Plenty of good arms there.

Perhaps the astute A’s supporters can lend me a hand here, but I don’t know how high the A’s will take the payroll in 2007.  If they bring it up to $75MM or so, Beane should have room to sign Thomas or a replacement and snag a mid-level starter.      

Will Bonds Hot Streak Affect Future?

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Since the beginning of August, Barry Bonds has been on a tear.  He’s hitting .329/.459/.709 over those 27 games.  The slugging ranks 4th among Major Leaguers, behind Travis Hafner, Ryan Howard, and Adam LaRoche. 

Overall, Bonds’s 1.001 OPS this season ranks 11th in baseball, right behind Miguel Cabrera.  Any reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated.  Bonds has appeared in 112 games this season, or about 81% of the Giants’ contests.  The 130 game pace beats preseason expectations.  He also sports the game’s best OBP at .462.  The OBP leaderboard is littered with similarly slow-footed sluggers, so we shouldn’t hold that against him too much.  The one true flaw in the 42 year-old’s game is his left field defense.   

Aside from Ryan Howard, Bonds has been the game’s hottest hitter over the last week.  It’s sparked more debate about his future.  Bonds says he’d like to stay, but it’s unclear whether the Giants want him back to pursue Hank Aaron’s record.  A lot of folks are dismissing the once-popular destination of Oakland because of Frank Thomas’s resurgence.  But if Thomas sticks to his desire for a two-year deal, the A’s seem likely to let him walk.  If they can secure Bonds as their DH for less than $10MM it could be a steal.

The Yankees are an intriguing option if they choose to let Gary Sheffield go and use Giambi or Bonds at first base.  Same goes for the Red Sox, who could stick David Ortiz at first and create the most dangerous trio in baseball.  Bonds could also fit with the Tigers, Mariners, or Rangers in ’07.  The Dodgers could be a long shot; they could use Bonds at first base for a year if Nomar Garciaparra departs.

      

Stark: A’s Making Run At Soriano

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With three hours and change left to go, add Oakland to the list of teams interested in Alfonso Soriano.  Jayson Stark’s latest also indicates that the Twins are "all over the Soriano scene."

Soriano doesn’t work the count, but he adds slugging.  The A’s are last in the league with a woeful .393 SLG.  Hasn’t been any better in July, either – they’re at .375 this month.

Gotham Baseball On The Mets

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Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has an update with the latest buzz surrounding the Mets.

Healey talks to various team officials and uncovers Billy Beane’s reported asking price for Barry Zito: John Maine, Carlos Gomez, and Aaron Heilman. 

If you’re not familiar with Gomez, here’s a little background.  He’s a 20 year-old CF/RF currently residing in Double A.  Gomez is holding his own with a .281/.341/.432 line so far, including a blistering July (1.096 OPS).  He’s a raw prospect and has struggled with lefties.  Baseball America seems enamored of his tools and ranked him third among Mets prospects entering the season.

Healey also notes that the Mets have put in another inquiry on Livan Hernandez, only to learn that the Nats are trying to force a Soriano-Livan package deal upon the Mets.  In searching for a positive about Hernandez’s performance this season, I did discover that he’s had 12 quality starts this year.  That’s as many as Brad Penny, Jake Peavy, or Aaron Harang.

Pirates Trade Rumors

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Let’s run down all the possible trades Dave Littlefield and the Pirates have brewing.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review still has Oakland as the favorite for Sean Casey, a move that makes little sense to me.

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette mentions a possible swap of John Grabow for Ryan Shealy.  That sounds reasonable.

Dejan Kovacevic’s article also indicates that the Mets and Yankees are leading the charge for Kip Wells.  The Yankees also want Craig Wilson and Roberto Hernandez.  Wilson and Wells seem unlikely at this point, though, as the Abreu deal looks close.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 7 Days Left

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Here’s the latest from around baseball…

Dejan Kovacevic mentions that the A’s are considering Sean Casey.  Casey’s doing his usual good batting average/low slugging thing and he’s getting $8.5MM for it.  The combined efforts of Dan Johnson and Nick Swisher have been inadequate at first, but would Casey really help?  Johnson is hitting .485/.575/.848 in 33 Triple A at-bats; maybe he deserves another look.  The Athletics, who are dead last in the AL in slugging, wouldn’t be helped by adding the powerless Casey.  They need Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Pat Burrell, or even Raul Ibanez to make a difference. 

The Yankees have decided to hold on to Philip Hughes, and the Phils aren’t biting on whatever else they offered.  According to George King, the Yanks think assuming Abreu’s contract and exercising his option should be enough.  Still, it would be cool to see a nasty young Phillies rotation in 2008 with Hughes, Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, and Scott Mathieson.

Also, I’m hearing that WPEN in Philadelphia has mentioned a trade rumor: Tom Gordon for Trot Nixon.  Nixon is a good hitter (.400 OBP), though he’s 32 with declining power numbers.  Given that Flash would be hands down the best reliever on the market, I’d expect the Phils to get more.   

Kenny Williams didn’t deny the recent Soriano rumor, so now you know it’s legit.  Kenny has been pretty shrewd with the media, so this is probably all part of his plan.  Despite word of a possible contract extension with Washington, Buster Olney all but assured us of a Soriano trade in today’s blog.

Also, Olney nixed the A-Rod to the Cubs idea, explaining that Rodriguez is a bargain in the Yankees’ world.  This column is kind of weird to me.  Phil Rogers almost seems like he’s just cooked up a brilliant scenario or something, with Aramis Ramirez and Jacque Jones being swapped for A-Rod.  Thing is, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke out this exact trade rumor three weeks ago.

RotoAuthority has a look at which pitchers have been abused this season.

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