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Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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The Mets' attempt to re-sign Jose Reyes will dominate their offseason and determine how much they can spend on other areas of need, like the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

As expected, 2011 was a year of transition for the Mets.  New GM Sandy Alderson did fine work in escaping Francisco Rodriguez's vesting option and maximizing the return on Carlos Beltran.  Alderson's most debatable decision, though, was not trading Jose Reyes at the July deadline.  Reyes' status is now likely to shape the Mets' offseason.

Reyes missed about six weeks of the season, enduring two separate DL stints due to a hamstring injury.  The Mets must determine whether they see Reyes as a player who can be depended upon for only 130 games a year moving forward, or one capable of returning to the 150-games-played plateau.  Reyes' season was phenomenal even with the time missed, and his strong finish bodes well for him in free agency.  Still, all five to seven year, $100MM+ contracts are very risky.  So far, Alderson's biggest risk as Mets GM was keeping Reyes.  If that July decision doesn't result in an offseason discount, the Mets will have to settle for a couple of draft picks.

Wright had a disappointing season as he missed more than two months with a back injury.  Trading him now would result in a disappointing return.  Wright can void his 2013 club option if traded, meaning Alderson only would be offering one season of the third baseman.  The Beltran formula might be applied here: Alderson could hope Wright rebuilds his value in the first few months of 2012 and becomes the best bat on the trade market.  Players like Pelfrey and Pagan could also become useful trade chips.  I'd tender contracts to both despite their disappointing 2011 seasons.

If the Mets don't re-sign Reyes, another consolidation season might be in order.  Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, and Josh Thole had promising seasons, and the rotation has useful pieces.  Still, the team is facing question marks all around the diamond and in the rotation.  I think they can contend if Reyes returns and Wright, Santana, and Bay also contribute star-caliber seasons, but that's unlikely and reason to find Alderson's decision to keep Reyes confusing.  In Alderson's defense, Reyes spent half of July on the disabled list, perhaps cutting down his trade value to the point that two draft picks wasn't much worse.

A $110MM payroll would give the Mets plenty of flexibility, and the bullpen will be one focus.  I expect Alderson to make improvements, yet still exercise caution and avoid a big commitment to any one reliever.  The rotation is a similar issue, with Alderson needing to make a few more Capuano-type signings.  Hopefully if Reyes leaves there won't be an expectation to spend the entire surplus just for the sake of spending.  The team just has too many questions to make 2012 contention likely.

Plenty of questions remain in Irving Picard's lawsuit against Mets owners Saul Katz and Fred Wilpon, but the tide seems to be turning in the owners' favor with a judge capping their potential loss at $386MM.  Should Picard fail to prove the Mets owners were willfully blind to Bernie Madoff's Ponzi scheme, they might have to pay out less than $100MM.

Perhaps by 2013 the Mets can have the Picard lawsuit settled and the decks mostly cleared of bad contracts.  Alderson can make determinations on the futures of Reyes and Wright, while his other big-money players, Santana and Bay, will be entering their walk years barring vesting options.  The Mets will have more clarity on players such as Ike Davis, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Duda, and Murphy, while Jenrry Mejia should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.  If Alderson continues laying a proper foundation, the Mets should be competitive by '13. 

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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The Blue Jays will look for a second baseman, relief pitching and rotation help this offseason. They might consider some of the top free agents available.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • Edwin Encarnacion, DH: $3.5MM club option with a $500K buyout (no Elias ranking) 
  • Jon Rauch, RP: $3.75MM club option with a $250K buyout (Type B ranking)

Free Agents

Trying to predict Alex Anthopoulos' next move is plain silly. A year ago this time, there seemed to be zero chance of trading Vernon Wells — and he's now an Angel. Before the 2011 season began, the Blue Jays' chances of acquiring Colby Rasmus seemed slim at best — yet he's Toronto's starting center fielder. There is no guessing what will happen next. A team that makes as many phone calls and weighs as many possibilities as the Blue Jays isn't going to be predictable.

We do know the Blue Jays need pitching and second base help. It's also fair to assume they'll consider a variety of trade possibilities throughout the offseason, given Anthopoulos' track record as a dealmaker. 

It's conceivable that the Blue Jays will be tempted by big names this offseason. Elite free agents such as Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols, C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson would make the Blue Jays better, but it doesn't appear that Anthopoulos will offer any six or seven-year deals. Even if the Jays offer mega-contracts, top free agents may hesitate to join a team that hasn't reached the postseason since 1993.

It's no secret Anthopoulos has scouted Yu Darvish. The Blue Jays appear to have some interest in the 25-year-old right-hander and it won't be a surprise if Toronto emerges as a serious bidder. He and Ricky Romero would be terrific at the top of the rotation and signing Darvish wouldn't force the Blue Jays to surrender one of their prized draft picks.

Anthopoulos has acknowledged he'd like to improve the rotation, but he says the Jays won't be in the market for back-of-the-rotation pitchers. The Athletics, Braves and Rays could be willing to trade starting pitching in the right deal this winter, so expect the Blue Jays to keep tabs.

Though Blue Jays fans have long anticipated the arrivals of Fielder and Pujols on the open market, those two probably aren't signing in Toronto and president Paul Beeston knows it. First baseman Adam Lind's breakout 2009 season has become a distant memory after consecutive seasons with OBPs under .300. He has not produced enough, but he did reach the 20-homer plateau again (26) while dealing with back issues. Edwin Encarnacion remains an alternative to Lind at first base. I expect his strong finish will be enough for the Blue Jays to exercise the $3.5MM option they hold for 2012.

The Blue Jays also have an option for Jon Rauch, who missed most of the season's final month and is recovering from a right knee cartilage tear. His basic and peripheral stats dropped off in 2011, so, barring a handshake agreement with Rauch, I expect the Blue Jays to decline their $3.75MM option and let the 33-year-old go without offering arbitration, despite his Type B status.

Three of the Blue Jays' four other Type B free agents have a good chance of obtaining an arbitration offer. There's a case for extending offers to Frank Francisco, Kelly Johnson and Jose Molina. All three could help the Blue Jays in 2012 and none would cost a prohibitive amount on a one-year deal. Shawn Camp, another Type B, gets ground balls and has been durable. While there's no doubt the Jays like the idea of getting a draft pick for Camp, he strikes out less than one batter per two innings and might cost $3MM, which reduces his chances of getting an arbitration offer.

If the Blue Jays offer arbitration to all eligible players except non-tender candidate Jesse Carlson and pick up Encarnacion's option while declining Rauch's, they'll have committed about $52MM to next year's payroll, not including minimum salary players. They've spent at least $70MM every season since 2006 and have publicly hinted at payrolls twice that high, so it's not a stretch to expect the Jays to have $20MM-plus at their disposal this offseason. It's also worth noting that the Blue Jays enjoy a stronger Canadian dollar than in years past.

Anthopoulos said after the season that he expects the Blue Jays to go outside of the organization for bullpen help, either through trades or free agency. This makes sense, though the Jays have some internal options. B.J. Ryan's contract is off the books, but the memory of his contract lives on. I don't expect the Jays to bid aggressively on the top free agent closers, especially those who cost draft picks.

Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch both excelled out of the bullpen and will be back along with right-hander Carlos Villanueva. Dustin McGowan returned after a three-year absence and should contribute again next year — if healthy. Luis Perez and Brad Mills give the Jays left-handed options, but they're otherwise short on lefties after trading Marc Rzepczynski and will presumably want to add southpaws this offseason.

Second base will be another focal point for the Blue Jays. Kelly Johnson is one of the winter's most appealing free agent second basemen and Anthopoulos expects to discuss a possible deal with the 29-year-old. The free agent market offers few appealing alternatives, so Anthopoulos could turn to the trade market if Johnson declines arbitration and signs elsewhere. Many expect the Blue Jays will make a serious run at John McDonald, the popular defensive specialist Toronto traded to Arizona along with Aaron Hill.

There's also left field, where Travis Snider was the organization's most disappointing position player in 2011 after showing signs of breaking out in 2010. Expect Eric Thames to get a good shot at the starting job after hitting 12 homers and posting a .769 OPS in 2011. Meanwhile, Rajai Davis can be an extra outfielder, so the Blue Jays have sufficient left field depth.

The Jays also have Jose Bautista, arguably the best hitter in the game, so it's no surprise that they ranked fifth in the American League with 743 runs scored last year. They could score even more with a full season from Brett Lawrie, who hit .293/.373/.580 after being called up.

If they add relief pitching and at least one starter this offseason, the Blue Jays will have a more complete team. With the playoffs likely expanding by 2012 or 2013, talented prospects ascending through the system and the possibility of payroll rising, there's hope Toronto can soon contend for a playoff spot in baseball's least forgiving division. 

Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies

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The Rockies intend to add an innings-eater and a right-handed hitter this offseason, likely focusing on the trade market rather than free agency due to budgetary constraints.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

  • Aaron Cook, unranked SP: $11MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
  • Jason Giambi, unranked 1B: $1MM mutual option

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Rockies GM Dan O'Dowd has his work cut out for him this offseason.  The team needs an innings-eating starter, solutions at second base, third base, and left field, and a left-handed reliever.  The Rockies will require significant trading and creativity to get back on top, if payroll is to remain in the low-$80MM range.

If all four arbitration eligible players are retained, the Rockies would appear to have less than $15MM in payroll flexibility next year.  Fortunately, trade candidates abound in Street, Wigginton, Smith, Stewart, and Iannetta.  Those five players will earn about $21MM in total next year — a quarter of the team's expected payroll.  Iannetta is the least likely to be traded, as Wilin Rosario is probably not ready for full-time duty.  O'Dowd projects Stewart and Smith as potential platoon players next year.  If a full-time left fielder or third baseman is acquired, Stewart and Smith will become expendable.  Street and Smith might be the only veteran Rockies with decent trade value, so O'Dowd may have to part with prospects to improve the team.  The Rockies GM has implied that Stewart will be tendered a contract, but that may have been posturing.

200 innings is an arbitrary cutoff, but it's a level 39 pitchers reached in 2011.  None of them were Rockies.  Trade targets could include James Shields, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, Jeremy Guthrie, Ricky Nolasco, Gio Gonzalez, and Jason Vargas.  Gavin Floyd, John Danks, Mike Pelfrey, John Lannan, and Wandy Rodriguez have at least shown an ability to take 180+ innings.  Finding that type of starter in free agency is less likely, and pitchers may still be reluctant to play in Colorado.  An August waiver claim on Rodriguez showed the Rockies are willing to assume a commitment in the three-year, $36MM range.  It seems odd the Rockies would consider trading prospects for any of the above pitchers when they had Ubaldo Jimenez set to earn $18MM over 2012-14.  Obviously, O'Dowd feels strongly about Drew Pomeranz and Alex White.  Additionally he probably felt Jimenez's stock would trend downward. 

In the Rockies' search for a right-handed bat, Michael Cuddyer seems to possess some positive traits that Aramis Ramirez does not have.  The free agent market also features left fielder Josh Willingham.  From a trade standpoint, Michael Young, Carlos Quentin, Kevin Youkilis, Mark Reynolds, and David Wright are potential matches.  It seems unlikely the Rockies will fill both third base and left field by acquiring regulars, so look for a platoon in at least one of the positions.  Ellis is a candidate to return at second base, but that position does not appear to be of primary concern to Colorado.  Similarly, left-handed relief is something the Rockies will address, but probably without making a major commitment.

The echoes from the July Jimenez trade will be felt this offseason, as O'Dowd prioritizes finding a replacement proven starter.  The longtime general manager seems prepared to add a few more major trades to his resume toward making the 2012 club a contender.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals' offseason revolves around their search for top-of-the-rotation pitching.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

For the Royals to continue their turnaround and post a winning record in 2012, they must acquire starting pitching this offseason. It's never easy to obtain front-end starters, but the Royals' strong, young core of position players and relievers will allow them to focus on adding to their rotation in the coming months.

The Royals finished next-to-last among Major League teams in rotation ERA in 2011 (4.82), only leading the Orioles. Their starters were also among the bottom ten teams in strikeout rate (5.9 K/9), walk rate (3.1 BB/9) and innings pitched. They need help and the farm system hasn't produced pitchers as prolifically as it has churned out position players.

Kansas City won 71 games on one of MLB's lowest payrolls last year: $38MM. It will be hard to avoid a more expensive 2012 team. If the Royals offer contracts to all their arbitration eligible players except Chris Getz and Brayan Pena, they'll have committed about $31.5MM in payroll before accounting for their many minimum salary players. They spent $75MM as recently as 2010, so GM Dayton Moore should be able to make competitive free agent offers if necessary, especially since Gil Meche chose not to accept the final $12MM on his contract.

Moore has said he'll look internally first, then to the trade market and finally at free agents as he searches for rotation help. It's possible Aaron Crow or Everett Teaford could transition to the rotation and join starters Luke Hochevar, Felipe Paulino and Danny Duffy. 

The trade market may feature pitchers such as James Shields, Gio Gonzalez, Jason Vargas and Wandy Rodriguez. The Braves, Moore's former team, have impressive pitching depth and Mike Minor and Jair Jurrjens could be linked to the Royals, who have said they'll trade prospects for pitchers. Minor leaguers Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi could join the rotation in 2012, while John Lamb will spend much of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery.

Two of the Royals' most effective and reliable starters, Jeff Francis and Bruce Chen, are eligible for free agency and could re-sign in Kansas City. It makes sense for the Royals to offer arbitration to Chen, a Type B free agent. If he accepts, they have a solid starter for a few million on a one-year deal. If he declines and signs elsewhere, the Royals obtain a supplementary first-round pick in 2012.

The free agent market also offers front-end pitchers, but it's hard to imagine C.C. Sabathia or C.J. Wilson leaving their current teams for Kansas City. Free agent Edwin Jackson would instantly become the Royals' top starter and they could theoretically add an ace by winning the bidding for Yu Darvish. Realistically, it would be problematic for the small-market Royals to fit an elite free agent into the budget, so Moore's reluctance to build through free agency makes sense.

Joakim Soria struggled at times last year and the Royals' bullpen wasn't overwhelming, but there's reason for optimism. Soria, Greg Holland, Blake Wood, Tim Collins and Louis Coleman provide manager Ned Yost with many viable options. That doesn't include possible starters Crow and Teaford or Rule 5 acquisition Nathan Adcock. Next year's bullpen appears to be in place, though the Royals could trade some relief depth to obtain the starting pitching they need.

Few teams integrated as many rookie position players as the Royals in 2011, as Eric Hosmer, Salvador Perez, Johnny Giavotella and Mike Moustakas established themselves as starters. Even so, Kansas City finished sixth in the American League in runs scored (730). Every Royals regular is under team control next year, so Moore can build his bench and consider extensions. 

Chris Getz could provide the Royals with depth behind Giavotella, but at $1.2MM, Getz would cost three times as much as Yamaico Navarro and has become a non-tender candidate. The same can be said for Brayan Pena, now that 24-year-old Manny Pina is a legitimate option behind the plate. The Royals could also non-tender Pena and seek a more established backup, such as Kelly Shoppach, Jose Molina or Ivan Rodriguez. Handing over the catching duties to Perez and Pina would show a level of confidence teams rarely display with rookie backstops. Perez and Pina have just 43 combined games of MLB experience, so I believe it would be too much to ask them to hit, catch and help develop a young pitching staff without the support of a more experienced catcher.

Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, two of Moore's best free agent acquisitions, will join Alex Gordon in next year's outfield. It's possible that the Royals will discuss an extension with Gordon — MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has suggested a four-year deal for less than $30MM could work for both sides — and they might even look to extend Cabrera. However, it wouldn't be surprising if outfield prospect Wil Myers reached the Majors in 2012, so the Royals may not want to lock up their entire outfield, despite its impressive production in 2011.

The Royals are better-positioned than most of baseball's 90-loss teams. They have no bad contracts on the books and many promising prospects in the minor leagues. Their young position players are proving themselves at the Major League level and their bullpen features intriguing, effective arms. Dayton Moore's next challenge, the search for a front-of-the-rotation starter or two, will define Kansas City's offseason and shape the team's chances in 2012.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

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Prepare for another offseason of short-term free agent deals from the Padres in their attempt to stop the bleeding on a perennially lousy offense.  The Friars also have more bullpen patchwork ahead than usual.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contractual Options

  • Aaron Harang, Type B SP: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout
  • Brad Hawpe, unranked 1B: $6MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
  • Chad Qualls, unranked RP: $6MM club option with a $1.05MM buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

Talk about a lack of commitments.  The Padres owe $11MM to their starting middle infield for 2012, and nothing beyond that.  GM Jed Hoyer has a clean slate and a payroll expected to be in the $53-55MM range, the team's highest since '08.  As I showed last week, Hoyer should have $20MM+ to work with in 2012 payroll flexibility.  At a September 29th press briefing, the GM was clear about his offseason goals.  He plans to add veteran leadership, rebuild the bullpen, cut down on strikeouts, improve the bench, and add a corner outfielder.

The 2011 Padres ranked third in ERA among NL relief squads.  However, they traded Mike Adams and Qualls and Bell are free agents.  Cory Luebke will stick in the rotation, following a midseason shift.  Those four pitchers accounted for 46% of the team's relief innings and a 2.65 ERA.  The Padres will probably be looking to make multiple Qualls-type signings, snapping up decent arms on one-year deals in the $3MM range.  The team will find plenty of willing applicants, as usual given their ballpark.  

Bell probably should have been traded too.  The closer doesn't appear interested in the team's reported proposal of two years at about $14MM and has announced his intention to deny them a chance at draft picks by accepting arbitration.  I wouldn't go much higher on a contract offer, so the best move now is to offer arbitration and see if Bell still prefers to stay in San Diego on a one-year deal.  I'm not sure that's really best for him — he's 34, he's never had a multiyear deal, and his strikeout rate took a big dip this year.  He'd probably have to endure another summer of trade rumors, too.  This offseason might be his best chance for multiyear security, and his agency could probably find a team willing to guarantee three years.  

Cutting down on strikeouts and adding a corner outfielder might have to be accomplished with one player, as the Padres' infield appears set.  Corner outfield free agents with high contact rates include Juan Pierre, Endy Chavez, and Coco Crisp.

This offseason might be a good time to shop Headley.  He's a useful player but light on power, and the Padres have third base candidates coming up in the farm system.  Power pays in arbitration, so Headley's affordability adds to his trade value.  It doesn't hurt that the free agent market offers almost nothing at his position, aside from Aramis Ramirez.  This offseason is also a good time to lock up center fielder Cameron Maybin, who was worth nearly five wins above replacement this year in a breakout season.

For the second season in a row, the Padres' rotation ERA ranked fourth in the National League.  Mat Latos, Stauffer, and Luebke make for a solid front three.  Harang or a veteran of his ilk should take another spot, perhaps with Richard and Moseley battling for the last.

The cosmetic changes discussed in this post probably won't make the Padres a contender.  They haven't ranked in the upper half of the National League in runs scored since they placed eighth in 2004, the year Petco Park opened.  With Anthony Rizzo, Jedd Gyorko, James Darnell, Rymer Liriano, and others, the team has young hitters on the way.  Several of them will need to produce at the Major League level for this team to return to prominence.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

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As the Athletics await resolution on their stadium situation, they’ll look to restore outfield depth and improve their weak offense.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

Michael Wuertz, RP: $3.25MM club option with a $250K buyout; no Elias Ranking

Free Agents

The Athletics are in limbo, waiting for MLB’s assessment of their stadium situation and confronting the possibility that Billy Beane could leave the Bay Area for another GM job. With so much uncertainty and the worst attendance figures in MLB, it’s difficult for Oakland to make long-term plans. Spending decisions are temporarily on hold for the A's. 

Stadium and relocation issues aside, the front office has its share of on-field questions. All three of Oakland’s starting outfielders hit free agency along with their primary designated hitter and a starting pitcher. It seems likely that the A’s will seek offense to rebound from this year’s 74-88 record and make a push for the postseason. But as C.J. Wilson reminded Beane & Co. this summer, attracting free agents of any kind to the Oakland Coliseum makes luring fans there seem easy.

If the A's decline Michael Wuertz's option and tender contracts to all nine of their arbitration eligible players, they'll have committed about $40.75MM to next year's payroll (minimum salary players not included). Oakland's payroll has been in the $58-67MM range since 2009, so it won't be surprising if they're working with approximately $20MM this offseason.

The offense is the most obvious place for Beane to spend. Oakland's lineup featured little pop besides Josh Willingham in 2011 and ranked 12th in the American League in runs scored (645). Willingham, Coco Crisp and David DeJesus will be among the most sought-after free agent outfielders of the offseason, so re-signing them won't be easy, though the A’s appear to have interest in bringing Willingham and Crisp back.

The A's can obtain two draft picks for Willingham, who would obtain a raise from $6MM if he accepted arbitration from Oakland. It's an acceptable risk for the A's given the possible picks, Willingham's free agent prospects and the limited downside of a one-year deal. An offer of arbitration for DeJesus, a bounce-back candidate in 2012, seems less likely.

Without the organizational stability to spend aggressively or the ability to attract big-name free agents, the A's may turn to the trade market, where Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Quentin, Angel Pagan and B.J. Upton could be available as alternatives to internal options such as Michael Taylor, Ryan Sweeney and Jai Miller. Oakland's pitching staff is a definite strength and it could be the currency Beane uses to acquire outfield help and address minor needs.

It appears likely that designated hitter Hideki Matsui will return on a one-year deal. Matsui generates revenue and won’t command more than a few million, but most teams look for more than 12 homers and a .696 OPS from their designated hitter. David Ortiz would provide more offense, but he’ll be significantly more expensive than Matsui.

Scott Sizemore’s impressive 2011 performance (.249/.345/.433 with 11 HR in 355 plate appearances) has earned him a shot at the everyday third base job. Joining him on the infield will be promising 24-year-old second baseman Jemile Weeks and shortstop Cliff Pennington. Daric Barton (recovering from a torn labrum in his right shoulder) and a collection of minimum salary players – Brandon Allen Chris Carter, Kila Ka'aihue and Adam Rosales – round out the infield. Even if the A's believe in Sizemore and their collection of first base candidates at the corner positions, they'll need to add bench depth after parting with multiple infielders last season. 

Few teams would be comfortable relying on such an inexperienced group of position players. Allen, Weeks, Pennington, Sizemore, Taylor, Sweeney and Miller have combined for fewer MLB plate appearances than Matsui (4953 vs. 4677), and he played in Japan until he was 29.

The A’s didn’t score much in 2011, but their run prevention was better than average (sixth in the AL), even though they only got three starts from Dallas Braden and 13 from Brett Anderson. Both left-handers could return in 2012: Braden, now recovering from shoulder surgery, is a possibility for the Opening Day rotation (assuming Oakland tenders him a contract) and Anderson could return from Tommy John surgery midseason. They’ll join Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, Brandon McCarthy and Guillermo Moscoso in a deep rotation that could include Tyson Ross or Josh Outman, if necessary. 

Rich Harden could re-sign in Oakland and provide the club with additional insurance. At this point, they don’t appear to need it, but every pitching staff encounters injuries. Plus, it’s conceivable that the A’s would listen to offers for Gio Gonzalez, who will earn at least $3MM as a first-time arbitration eligible player. The 26-year-old is under team control through 2015 and would instantly become one of the most coveted pitchers of the offseason, if Beane made him available.

The bullpen will feature Craig Breslow, Brian Fuentes, Grant Balfour and Andrew Bailey again. It seems unlikely that the A's would commit over $3MM to Wuertz after such a disappointing season, so they'll probably decline his option and rely on the likes of Joey Devine (sidelined with a rhomboid strain), Jerry Blevins and Fautino De Los Santos to fill out the 'pen. The group was adequate in 2011 and should be as good in 2012, with most of its members returning.

As much as anything, Oakland's offseason revolves around the possibility that they'll move to a new stadium or city. Yes, the A's will patch up their outfield and tinker with their pitching staff, and next year's team will be much better if the offense improves and the pitching holds up. But for the long-term health of the franchise to improve, the A's need resolution on the stadium issue.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Once the Orioles sort out the uncertainty in their front office, they'll have to improve a disappointing rotation and add balance to their promising lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Orioles' next GM has one of the toughest assignments in baseball: pass the up-and-coming Blue Jays, the deep-pocketed Red Sox, the perennially competitive Rays and the powerhouse Yankees. This job will take more than one year.

At this point, it's not clear who will be leading the Orioles' baseball operations department going forward. President of baseball operations Andy MacPhail has stepped aside, so Baltimore will search for a new general manager. We do know manager Buck Showalter will remain in the dugout next year.

It will take a skilled general manager with a long-term vision to mold the Orioles into a contender. They are short on pitching and entered the season with the weakest farm system in the division, according to Baseball America. The Rays provide hope, since they have three playoff berths in the past four years despite having a lower payroll than the Orioles and a far worse stadium. Success on a budget is possible in the AL East, but even MacPhail couldn't turn the franchise into a contender.

The Orioles experienced many disappointments in 2011 and the biggest letdown of all occurred in the starting rotation, where young, promising pitchers failed to develop as swiftly as expected. Baltimore finished last in MLB in rotation ERA (5.39), innings (881) and quality starts (60) and they weren't particularly close to the 29th ranked team in any of those categories.

Brian Matusz had a 10.69 ERA in 12 starts; Jake Arrieta struggled, then underwent elbow surgery in August; Chris Tillman's season stats were disappointing; Zach Britton had an up-and-down season. The Orioles need better pitching in 2012 and they're in a difficult position since they can't rely on their young starters, but it's too early to give up on them.

Though Jeremy Guthrie led the league in losses again, he was a steady presence in the rotation. His durability (three consecutive years of 200+ innings) sets him up for a generous arbitration payday of $8MM or more. He's eligible for free agency after 2012 and could be trade bait this winter. If the Orioles part with the durable 32-year-old without getting pitching back, their rotation will look even thinner. Along with Matusz, Arrieta, Tillman, and Britton, pitchers Tommy Hunter and Brad Bergesen are internal candidates to start in 2012.

The Orioles will likely pursue starting pitching in trades and on the free agent market this offseason. Free agent C.J. Wilson would have appeal, though squeezing his salary into the payroll won't necessarily be easy. Assuming the front office brings back Jones, Johnson, Guthrie, Bergesen, Simon and Andino through arbitration, the Orioles will have about $64MM in commitments for 2012 (a figure that doesn't account for minimum salary players). They've worked with payrolls of $74MM and $87MM in the past two seasons, so they figure to have $10-25MM to spend, depending on how much owner Peter Angelos has budgeted.

Wilson isn't the only prominent free agent who could fill a void for the Orioles. Prince Fielder would instantly become the team's best hitter and strengthen an offense that finished seventh in the American League with 708 runs scored. The Orioles would have to commit $100MM to a player for the first time in franchise history and surrender their second-round draft pick in 2012 to obtain Fielder.

Baltimore's first base plan will also affect the future of Mark Reynolds, who may be better off at first or DH than at third. Chris Davis is another free swinger who played both corner infield positions down the stretch and may start in 2012.

Vladimir Guerrero probably won't be back and it seems unlikely that the Orioles will offer arbitration after his so-so season. Luke Scott, another DH option, missed the final two and a half months of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery. He's a non-tender candidate, but the Orioles figure to have interest in retaining him on a one-year deal if his recovery goes well. Nolan Reimold has earned consideration in left field, Scott's primary defensive position, after posting a .973 OPS in September. The Orioles will also have to determine how many roster spots they can devote to powerful hitters who strike out a lot and don't play premium positions such as Scott, Davis and Reynolds.

Brian Roberts' injuries make second base difficult to project (Roberts is now recovering from a concussion). Robert Andino filled in admirably in 2011 and he'll be back next year, possibly with 24-year-old Ryan Adams, another candidate to play the position. The Orioles can't be expecting much from Roberts, who has played just 98 games in the past two seasons.

Four position players – J.J. Hardy, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Matt Wieters — form the Orioles' unofficial core, as they're all under control through 2013 or beyond. It won't be surprising if Baltimore explores extensions for Jones and Wieters at some point in the offseason. There figures to be more urgency to lock up Jones, who would be eligible for free agency after 2013.

There's work to be done in the bullpen, where Jim Johnson's standout season helped mask Kevin Gregg's disappointing one. Both are likely back in the bullpen next year, although there has been talk about making Johnson a starter.  Other holdovers include Jason Berken, Chris Jakubauskas, Clay Rapada, Alfredo Simon, Troy Patton, Pedro Strop and non-tender candidates Jo-Jo Reyes, Jeremy Accardo and Willie Eyre. 

From a statistical standpoint, the Orioles had a below-average bullpen this year, but no manager relied on his relievers more than Showalter, who needed 565 2/3 innings of relief because of the rotation's struggles. An improved rotation would lessen the strain on the bullpen in 2012. The Orioles have spent on relievers in recent years (including some regrettable deals) and it makes sense for them to restore bullpen depth and add relievers this offseason.

For the Orioles to progress, their rotation has to improve significantly. Baltimore figures to be in the market for starters and relievers this offseason as they look to improve upon the disappointment of 2011. They need position players, too, and could shop for help at first base, DH and left field and move the likes of Davis and Reynolds around depending on who they obtain. But offseason acquisitions can only do so much for the Orioles, who need to see their homegrown pitchers evolve from prospects to contributors if they are to start their ascent in the American League East.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals aim to add an outfield bat and a starting pitcher this offseason, which might be enough to vault them into contention in 2012.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

It's about time the Nationals become a bona fide contender.  The heart of the batting order can be elite with Zimmerman, Morse, and Werth.  The rotation has front-end arms in Strasburg and Zimmermann, even if neither is a horse yet.  The back end of the bullpen is in place too, with Drew Storen, Clippard, and Henry Rodriguez.  This is the foundation of a playoff team, but GM Mike Rizzo must make several more significant acquisitions to make the Nationals a contender in 2012.  Rizzo recently told Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post, "I think we're an outfield bat away and a starting pitcher away from really being a contender in the division."

If Strasburg and Zimmermann combine for, say, 350 regular season innings in 2012, it'd be ideal to make up that deficiency with an innings-eating ace.  Obviously, those are in high demand. Free agents C.C. Sabathia and C.J. Wilson fit the bill, while James Shields would be a high-end trade target.  In the next tier, potentially available starters such as Edwin Jackson, Jason Vargas, Mark Buehrle, Jeremy Guthrie, and Brett Myers could gobble up 200 innings at a respectable ERA.  I don't like the idea of trading Lannan; the Nationals need the innings he could provide as a reasonably-priced fourth starter.  Catcher Jesus Flores represents more expendable trade bait, though his value is at a low point.

Assuming they believe in the second-half performance of shortstop Ian Desmond, the Nationals are in good shape in the middle infield and at catcher.  Center field continues to represent the biggest up-the-middle question for the club.  Rizzo could renew talks for Twins center fielder Denard Span, who is potentially signed through 2015.  Otherwise, Rizzo could go for a stopgap solution like B.J. Upton or Coco Crisp and keep Matt Kemp and Jacoby Ellsbury in the back of his mind as future free agent possibilities.  Using Werth in center is another option, at least in the short-term.

Agent Scott Boras will surely try to sell the Nationals on the idea of signing Prince Fielder for first base and using Morse in left field.  Fielder doesn't gel with the team's primary short-term or long-term needs. They have a $9MM commitment with first baseman LaRoche next year and impending extension talks for Zimmerman.  Committing $100MM to C.J. Wilson would be one thing, but Fielder could require twice as much.

One more item on the Nationals' to-do list is to name their manager for 2012.  Davey Johnson is widely expected to keep the job, but the team has until the end of the month to decide.

Are the Nationals looking to go all-in for 2012, or just make marginal improvements and let Bryce Harper and other talented young players close the gap whenever they're ready?  A healthy bump to a $100MM payroll would give the team $40MM+ in 2012 flexibility, enough for two starting pitchers and an outfielder, which could result in the Nationals' first playoff appearance.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins need to add pitching and stabilize their offense this winter if they are to rebound from an awful 2011.

Guaranteed Contracts

Contract Options

  • Joe Nathan, RP: $12.5MM club option with a $2MM buyout

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

They couldn’t score, they couldn’t prevent runs and they couldn’t stay healthy. The story of the 2011 Twins was unpleasant and unexpected for a franchise that finished in last place for the first time since 2000.

Fortunately for Twins fans, the team plays in the winnable AL Central. Two years into the Target Field era, the team is averaging $105MM in payroll in its new open-air facility. They were second in the American League in attendance this year, despite a 63-99 record (their worst regular season mark since 1982, the year before Joe Mauer was born). Owner Jim Pohlad says payroll will be "right up there" again, so the Twins aren't exactly the small market team they once were. In fact, if payroll stays in the $100MM range and they retain Perkins, Casilla, and Liriano through arbitration, GM Bill Smith could have $25-$30MM to commit to 2012 salaries.

He'll need it. Uncertainty prevails in the outfield, the middle infield, the rotation and the bullpen. There's also first base and catcher, where Mauer and Justin Morneau were supposed to provide stability. Mauer spent time on the DL with bilateral leg weakness and pneumonia, while Morneau missed most of the season with concussion symptoms. In the end, the Twins paid the pair $37MM for seven total home runs in 151 total games.

More than anything else, the Twins need the two former MVPs to stay reasonably healthy in 2012. Since the Twins' offseason plans depend on the health of Mauer and Morneau, it makes sense for them to monitor the players' health and adapt their offseason wish list accordingly.

That doesn't mean Smith's completely at the mercy of his stars' recoveries. Two other fixtures in the lineup, Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel are eligible for free agency. There are arguments in favor of offering both arbitration, though the Twins won't necessarily be prepared to guarantee them raises. The Twins say they'd like Cuddyer back and they've made him an offer, but it appears likely that he'll explore free agency, where he's sure to see many offers.

To establish their interest in DH and corner outfield options like Cuddyer and Kubel, the Twins will have to determine their level of confidence in the likes of Joe Benson, Rene Tosoni, Brian Dinkelman and Chris Parmelee (who showed promising power during the season's final three weeks). Despite their internal options, it seems likely that the Twins will look to sign a corner outfielder if Cuddyer leaves as a free agent.

The Twins could target outfielders with good gloves and match them with defensive stalwarts Ben Revere (say what you will about his arm) and Denard Span to give their pitchers a much-needed edge. Or, the Twins could rely more heavily on the defense of Revere and Span and add a below-average defender who can hit.

The positional uncertainty extends to the Twins' infield. Tsuyoshi Nishioka wasn't at his best in 2011 and the Twins have to determine how he, Alexi Casilla, Trevor Plouffe and non-tender candidate Matt Tolbert fit into their plans. Smith, who traded J.J. Hardy to Baltimore last offseason, will consider adding shortstops from outside the organization and an addition seems likely.

Given their need for pitching and likely interest in outfield bats, a major expenditure at shortstop would be a surprise. Instead, Smith and his front office could browse second-tier free agent options such as Alex Gonzalez at short or stand pat. Another need exists at backup catcher, as Drew Butera's .449 OPS won't be enough in 2012, especially if Mauer spends even less time behind the plate. Jose Molina, 36, is coming off of a strong offensive and defensive season, so he's one relatively affordable option for the Twins to consider.

If the Twins' rotation had met expectations, the team wouldn't have lost 99 games. They ranked 26th in the Majors in rotation ERA (4.64) and still can't strike opponents out (5.8 K/9). They'll look for a bounce-back season from Francisco Liriano, who will slot into the rotation along with Carl Pavano and Scott Baker. The back of the rotation remains unsettled and Smith suggested some starters could pitch out of the 'pen in 2012 (Brian Duensing appears to be one such candidate).

Top prospect Kyle Gibson is out with Tommy John surgery, and alternatives such as Liam Hendriks, Scott Diamond and Anthony Swarzak don't appear to have equal upside. It's hard to imagine a turnaround without an improved rotation, so the Twins will want to consider ways of obtaining starting pitching this offseason.

Minnesota's bullpen never recovered from the losses of Matt Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jon Rauch and was the worst in baseball by many measures. Twins relievers posted 6.3 K/9 (30th in MLB) and a 4.51 ERA (30th in MLB). They were also last in xFIP and SIERA, so this doesn't appear to be a case of bad luck. They'll decline Joe Nathan's option but could bring him back on a one-year deal. Matt Capps' Type A ranking and decline in performance should prevent the Twins from offering arbitration (he would obtain a raise from $7.15MM). Glen Perkins' emergence out of the bullpen, a positive for the Twins in 2011, puts Jose Mijares and Phil Dumatrait in non-tender limbo.

One way or another, the Twins need to obtain a shutdown reliever to pair with Perkins in late innings. The D'Backs, now an inspiration to so many of baseball's last-place teams, turned their bullpen around in one season. It can be done and the Twins must do it to improve upon the dismal results of 2011.

While an arbitration offer to Capps seems unlikely, the Twins could have up to three extra draft picks in 2012. They already have the second overall selection, and scouting director Deron Johnson could have extra picks if Minnesota offers arbitration to Kubel and Cuddyer and they decline. 

The Twins need pitching – and lots of it – to be a better team in 2012. They'll probably add a starter and they should add multiple big league relievers. As for position players, it makes sense to offer arbitration to Kubel and Cuddyer before turning to external options. They could use a new shortstop and would do well to pursue a backup catcher who can hit. That's it, you say? Not quite, as the unanswerable question of how much Mauer and Morneau will produce in 2012 remains, and that variable could make the difference between a winning season and further disappointment for Twins fans.

Offseason Outlook: Seattle Mariners

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Jack Zduriencik is back and he’ll have to improve Seattle’s tepid offense for the Mariners to be relevant all season long in 2012.  

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Free Agents

The Mariners successfully prevented runs in 2011, but they sure couldn't score them. Seattle finished last in the American League in runs scored for the second consecutive season, plating just 556 runners. There's no point in dwelling on the Mariners' inability to score, but it's worth mentioning that none of their regulars had 20 homers, 30 doubles, a .280 average, a .350 on-base-average or a .470 slugging percentage. Around the Majors, 17 players met each of those benchmarks, yet not a single Mariners hitter could meet even one of them.

GM Jack Zduriencik is the one tasked with improving the Mariners' offense. When the longtime executive signed a multiyear extension in August, team president Chuck Armstrong praised him for accumulating talent through scouting and player development. But Zduriencik, who drafted Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun with the Brewers, hasn't been able to infuse similar might into the Mariners' batting order since becoming their GM in 2008.

For each of the past five seasons, the Mariners had a payroll of more than $90MM and they should have money to spend this offseason, with Milton Bradley’s contract no longer on the books. If the Mariners retain Kelley, Vargas and League through arbitration, that would put them in the $69MM range, before accounting for minimum salary players. They have cash but with holes at DH, left field, third base and shortstop, the question is where they’ll spend the money and how much they’re willing to spend. 

Before Zduriencik and manager Eric Wedge scour free agency, they will likely look internally. For example, in left field, Casper Wells, Trayvon Robinson, Michael Saunders, Mike Carp, Carlos Peguero and Greg Halman will all compete for playing time. The 25-year-old Carp, who posted a .791 OPS in half a season, can also DH. At third base, Wedge can compare Chone Figgins, Kyle Seager and Alex Liddi against one another to determine a fit. 

Despite the abundance of internal candidates in left and at DH, that’s a logical corner of the free agent market for the Mariners to explore. David Ortiz (who signed with the Mariners as an amateur in 1992), Jason Kubel, Ryan Ludwick, Josh Willingham, and Michael Cuddyer are among the free agent designated hitters and corner outfielders whose names the Mariners front office could consider and there will be options on the trade market, too.

Minor leaguer Nick Franklin, a possible long-term solution at short, wasn't quite as impressive in 2011 as he was in 2010, his first full season. Perhaps the Mariners will look for an upgrade from the punchless Brendan Ryan by making a play for a second-tier free agent shortstop like Clint Barmes, Jamey Carroll, Alex Gonzalez or Marco Scutaro. It wouldn't hurt to ask about Jed Lowrie, who could be squeezed out in Boston if the Red Sox exercise Scutaro's option.

The Mariners could improve their offense on the trade market, but more than anything else, their established players must rebound. Seattle is hoping Ichiro doesn’t decline in 2012 as much as he did last season. The 37-year-old right fielder fell short of the 200-hit plateau (184) for the first time in 11 Major League seasons and posted career lows in batting average (.272), on-base percentage (.310) and slugging percentage (.335). Franklin Gutierrez, who missed half of the season with stomach and oblique issues, needs to rebound and Justin Smoak needs to replicate his early-season success for a full season.

After trading Doug Fister and Erik Bedard midseason, the Mariners learned the hard way that they'll need more starting pitching depth in 2012 (they endured seven regrettable starts from left-hander Anthony Vasquez). Zduriencik has said he'll have some interest in adding veteran pitching to a rotation that includes Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Jason Vargas. Meanwhile, prospects like Danny Hultzen, James Paxton and Taijuan Walker will develop in the minor leagues. 

It wouldn't be a Mariners offseason without a good number of trade rumors surrounding Hernandez. Zduriencik has steadfastly held onto King Felix despite inquiries from around the league. Three years from now, however, the right-hander becomes a free agent. The Mariners face mounting pressure to win before their ace hits the open market, though it's doubtful that Seattle will part with Hernandez this offseason.

The Mariners could non-tender Aardsma (he underwent Tommy John surgery in July) and trade League, but that would leave the 'pen barren and force Zduriencik to acquire extra arms. While Seattle's bullpen had a solid 3.61 ERA last year, only Twins relievers struck out fewer batters per nine than the Mariners (6.3), so they should look to add relief options even if League is back and they retain Aardsma.

It makes sense for the Mariners to add rotation depth, proactively seek bullpen depth and look to upgrade over Ryan at short. As for left field, third base and DH, their internal options are interesting enough to warrant a look even if quality trumps quantity when it comes to Major League position players. The Mariners don't have to spend extravagantly on a star like Fielder to become relevant again, but they will need restored health and further development from budding stars like Ackley, Pineda and Smoak.

As a member of baseball's only four-team division, the Mariners have better odds than most. Could they replicate Arizona's worst-to-first turnaround and threaten for the playoffs in 2012? It seems unlikely, since Seattle will need more breaks than most teams, but they could be a .500 team next year.

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