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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2023 at 7:37pm CDT

The Astros made a seventh straight appearance in the American League Championship Series. It ended on a sour note, as consecutive home losses to their in-state rivals left them a game shy of another pennant. Houston can bring back much the same roster in hope of returning to the Fall Classic in 2024. They may have a new voice leading the clubhouse.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yordan Alvarez, DH: $103MM through 2028
  • Cristian Javier, RHP: $59MM through 2027
  • Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $51MM through 2026
  • José Abreu, 1B: $39MM through 2025
  • Alex Bregman, 3B: $28.5MM through 2024
  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $26MM through 2024
  • Rafael Montero, RHP: $23MM through 2025
  • Ryan Pressly, RHP: $16MM through 2024 (including buyout of ’25 vesting option)
  • Justin Verlander, RHP: $12.033MM through 2024 (deal includes vesting player option for ’25)*
  • Hector Neris, RHP: $8.5MM player option ($1MM buyout)
  • Kendall Graveman, RHP: $8MM through 2024

Option Decisions

  • RHP Hector Neris holds $8.5MM player option with $1MM buyout**

2024 financial commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $154.533MM
Total future commitments (assuming Neris opts out): $366.533MM

* Mets are responsible for $31.3MM of Verlander’s $43.333MM salary for 2024
** Player option is conditional on Neris passing end-of-season physical

Arbitration-Eligible Players

  • Framber Valdez (4.163): $12.1MM
  • Kyle Tucker (4.079): $12.6MM
  • José Urquidy (4.049): $3.5MM
  • Mauricio Dubón (3.162): $3.1MM
  • Luis Garcia (3.083): $2.1MM
  • Bryan Abreu (3.022): $2MM
  • Chas McCormick (3.000): $3.1MM

Non-tender candidates: None

Free Agents

  • Martín Maldonado, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Michael Brantley

The Astros claimed a third consecutive division title on the final day of the regular season. They handled the Twins to move to another ALCS. They fell just shy of the World Series, dropping their fourth home game in the ALCS against their intra-state rivals last night.

Dusty Baker was unwilling to speculate about his future in the immediate aftermath of that loss. Britt Ghiroli and Chandler Rome of the Athletic reported that the veteran skipper has been telling people both within and outside the organization that he anticipated stepping away from managing after this year. Baker won’t technically have to resign — he was on a one-year contract anyhow — but the effect would be the same. If he moves on, Houston will need to kick off a managerial search for the first time in four years.

It’s far too early to identify any kind of favorites for that (potential) opening. Bench coach Joe Espada would presumably get a long look after interviewing for various jobs elsewhere. Houston checked in on the likes of Brad Ausmus, Buck Showalter and Jeff Banister during their surprising 2020 search that ultimately landed on Baker. Much has changed in the last four seasons, of course, and it’s unclear if ownership and second-year GM Dana Brown would prioritize previous managerial experience the same way the organization had in the immediate fallout of the sign-stealing punishment.

While the coaching situation is in a state of uncertainty, the front office can keep the roster mostly intact. None of their core players are headed to free agency. Houston will see middle relievers Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek hit the market. Hector Neris could join them by declining an $8.5MM player option — assuming he passes a postseason physical, as expected — in search of another two-year deal.

Maton and Neris were solid pieces in a typically strong bullpen, which finished sixth in the majors in ERA and led MLB with a 26.3% strikeout rate. Stanek didn’t have a great 2023 campaign, although the hard-throwing righty combined for a 2.41 ERA in 123 innings between 2021-22. Their impending free agencies put some pressure on the front office to replenish the bullpen depth.

That could come by simply re-signing one or two of those pitchers. While each has a shot at a multi-year pact, none figures to land an exorbitant annual salary. If they let all three walk, they could identify a target or two in the lower tiers of free agency. Reacquiring Kendall Graveman at the deadline served as preemptive fortification of the 2024 setup core. The veteran joins Rafael Montero and Bryan Abreu as bridges to Ryan Pressly in the ninth inning.

The bullpen is light on left-handed options. That has been true for multiple seasons, though, with the Astros seemingly never placing much stock in building a relief corps they can leverage with traditional platoons. Given how effective the unit has been, they may again not care much about adding a lefty arm. If they did want to add a southpaw, someone like Andrew Chafin, Scott Alexander or Matt Moore could be available on a one-year deal.

Despite a few injuries, Houston doesn’t need to do a whole lot in the starting rotation. Justin Verlander is under contract for another season, with the Mets paying almost three-quarters of the salary to land Drew Gilbert and Ryan Clifford in the deadline blockbuster. Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are locked into the second and third spots. Hunter Brown flashed big strikeout potential as a rookie. J.P. France tailed off in the second half but had a good enough rookie showing to compete for a spot at the back end.

This year was a complete loss for Lance McCullers Jr., who never made it past nagging forearm issues. He underwent a season-ending flexor tendon repair in June. The organization will have more clarity about McCullers’ status as the offseason progresses. When announcing the surgery, Dana Brown said the club envisioned the All-Star hurler returning in 2024, although he didn’t specify if McCullers is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Luis Garcia underwent a Tommy John procedure in May. He’s unlikely to be a factor until the All-Star Break at the earliest. José Urquidy had some injury troubles of his own, missing a couple months with a shoulder strain. The righty didn’t require surgery and finished the season healthy. He had the worst numbers of his career, posting a 5.29 ERA in 63 innings after a sub-4.00 showing in each of his first four campaigns.

Perhaps the Astros are discouraged enough by Urquidy’s performance to put him on the trade market. His projected $3.5MM salary is relatively modest, so they’d find some interest. It may not be compelling enough to subtract a potential back-end arm given the uncertainties regarding Garcia and McCullers. If they deal Urquidy, they could look for a lower-variance veteran free agent in the Kyle Gibson mold to lock in a few innings.

The position player group is mostly established. Martín Maldonado and Michael Brantley are the only free agents. Multiple front office groups and coaching staffs have stuck by Maldonado despite consistently poor offense, pointing to his game-calling ability and work handling the pitching staff. It seems time for the organization to move on, however, as they have a talented younger backstop ready to take a larger role.

Yainer Diaz connected on 23 home runs while hitting .282/.308/.538 in 104 games as a rookie. The 25-year-old had been an excellent offensive player in the minors as well. Prospect evaluators have questioned how effective he’ll be defensively, but he already looks like one of the better bat-first catchers in the majors. Giving him the majority of the reps deepens the lineup.

Korey Lee was sent out in the Graveman deal, leaving the club without much catching depth beyond Diaz. Adding a veteran backup via free agency or small trade seems likely. Maldonado is a solid fit for this kind of role in isolation, although it may be tough for Houston to sell him on a true #2 job after years as their starter. If they want to go in another direction, Yasmani Grandal and Austin Hedges are impending free agents. Jacob Stallings and Christian Bethancourt could be available for a minimal trade return or non-tendered altogether.

Giving Diaz more time behind the plate clears a few at-bats in the designated hitter mix. The Astros have resisted making Yordan Alvarez a full-time DH, continuing to get him some left field reps. With Brantley heading back to free agency, they could bring in a Tommy Pham or Robbie Grossman type to play a rotational role.

Kyle Tucker is locked into right field. Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers and Mauricio Dubón are options in center field. Houston has kicked around the idea of upgrading in center field in the past, potentially moving McCormick to left while using Alvarez more heavily at DH. If they again consider that kind of move, Kevin Kiermaier and Michael A. Taylor are among the free agent options.

The infield is set. José Abreu, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman are locked in around the dirt. Abreu had a tough start to his three-year free agent deal, as he was one of the game’s worst players in the first two months. The veteran slugger showed signs of life in the second half and had an excellent postseason. While it wasn’t the year that Houston had envisioned, Abreu likely did enough from June onward to solidify his hold on the first base job going into 2024. Dubón and Grae Kessinger are on hand as utility options.

There doesn’t appear to be a ton of short-term payroll room for a marquee free agent pickup. If Neris opts out, Houston still has nearly $155MM in guaranteed commitments for next season. The arbitration class is projected for a combined $38.5MM salary. Aside from arguably Urquidy, everyone in that group is a key part of the roster. That puts them at roughly $193MM before considering outside additions.

That already projects as a franchise-record Opening Day outlay. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, Houston has never opened the season with a player payroll higher than $188MM; they entered this year in the $180MM range.

Barring a major spending hike, Houston probably isn’t going to make many headline-grabbing acquisitions. That’s not the worst thing in the world. They’re returning all the main contributors to what was arguably a top five roster. With just modest additions to the bullpen and at catcher, they should project alongside or above the Rangers and Mariners for the lead in the AL West.

The organization has greater longer-term payroll flexibility. Houston has only $75MM on the books for the 2025 season; if Verlander (140 innings) and Pressly (50 appearances) each hit vesting provisions next year, that could tack on another $29.5MM.

That could be important this offseason, as it seems likely the front office will engage key players on extension talks. Altuve is entering the final season of his most recent five-year deal. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale suggested over the weekend that a new contract for the star second baseman was a priority. Agreeing to a four- or five-year pact running from his age-35 season wouldn’t be without risk but would more or less ensure he spends his entire career in Houston.

Bregman is one year from the open market as well. Tucker and Valdez have two more seasons of arbitration eligibility. Shortly after his hiring, Dana Brown went on record about his desire to get long-term deals done with much of the core. Thus far, only Javier has put pen to paper. There’s likely to be more conversations with all those players, although none of the deals would be cheap. Each should command nine figures, with Tucker and Bregman likely to beat Altuve’s $151MM extension that stands as the largest contract in franchise history.

The course of extension talks is probably more notable than any players the Astros will add this winter. There’s not going to be much turnover outside the manager’s office in the coming months. They’ll get another run with this core group. How much of this team remains after 2024 and ’25 is less certain. The front office should try to continue locking in their top players as they prepare for the second half of the decade.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat. Click here to view the transcript.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Red Sox Have Offered Top Baseball Operations Job To Craig Breslow

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2023 at 6:15pm CDT

The Red Sox’s search for a new baseball operations leader is accelerating, with one candidate pulling ahead of the pack. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive each indicate that Cubs assistant general manager Craig Breslow is the favorite.

Speier reports that the Sox have already offered the position to Breslow, although there’s no indication he has yet accepted. Cotillo suggested this evening that the hiring process was gaining steam and the job could be filled imminently.

Breslow, 43, is a Yale graduate who spent 12 seasons in the majors as a reliever. While he spread that across seven organizations, he’s best known for his time with the Sox. The New Haven native pitched 211 innings across five campaigns with Boston, turning in a 1.81 ERA for the 2013 World Series club.

After concluding his playing career in 2018, Breslow signed on with the Cubs as their director of strategic initiatives for baseball operations. He shed that wordy title when he was named director of pitching one season later. The following year, the Cubs bumped him to AGM in Jed Hoyer’s front office, a title he has held for the last three years.

Boston fired chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom as the season was winding down. They haven’t announced the specific title of the person they’re planning to bring in as head of baseball operations. Since Breslow holds the AGM title, the Red Sox could offer him a bump to general manager — either as the leader of the front office (as seems increasingly likely), or as the second-in-command under a newly minted president of baseball operations.

Cotillo suggests the Sox could still bring in two new front office hires, utilizing the president/GM structure that has become commonplace around the league. They don’t need to make both additions simultaneously. The Tigers, for instance, left the GM role vacant for an entire season to afford incoming president of baseball operations Scott Harris time to choose his top lieutenant.

Even if there’s agreement on a hire in the next few hours, the Red Sox aren’t likely to make a formal announcement tonight. MLB dissuades teams from releasing noteworthy news on the day of postseason games. With two scheduled off days between tonight’s NLCS Game 7 and the first contest of the World Series, it’s possible a hire is finalized tomorrow or Thursday.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Craig Breslow

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Five Mets Elect Free Agency

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2023 at 5:00pm CDT

The Mets announced this afternoon that five players — infielders Jonathan Araúz and Danny Mendick, outfielder Rafael Ortega, catcher Michael Pérez and right-hander Vinny Nittoli — went unclaimed on outright waivers. All five players declared minor league free agency. The Mets had waived that group along with left-hander Anthony Kay, claimed by Oakland, last week.

It’s not surprising to see any of the others go unclaimed. Only Mendick held a spot on the 40-man roster for the entire season. The righty-hitting utilityman had signed a $1MM free agent deal after being non-tendered by the White Sox. He spent the bulk of the season on optional assignment to Triple-A Syracuse, where he had a decent .282/.369/.424 batting line. Mendick didn’t produce much in a limited MLB look, hitting .185/.232/.277 in 35 games.

Ortega has the most MLB experience of the group. The lefty-swinging outfielder has appeared for six teams over a seven-season big league run. He topped 100 games with the Cubs in both 2021 and ’22, operating as their starting center fielder and leadoff man for a time. The 32-year-old played most of this past season in Triple-A, hitting .228/.352/.388. He got into 47 games for New York late in the year, running a .219/.341/.272 line over 136 trips.

Pérez has played in nine games for the Mets over the last two seasons. The depth catcher owns a .179/.248/.306 line in 599 career plate appearances between the Rays, Pirates and Mets. Araúz has played parts of four seasons between the Red Sox, Orioles and Mets. The switch-hitting infielder owns a .184/.253/.308 slash in 95 games, including a .136/.203/.288 showing this past season.

Nittoli made three MLB appearances after coming over from the Cubs in a minor trade. He turns 33 next month and has six big league outings between three teams. The Xavier product posted a 4.64 ERA over 42 2/3 innings in Triple-A this year.

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New York Mets Transactions Danny Mendick Jonathan Arauz Michael Perez Rafael Ortega Vinny Nittoli

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A’s Claim Anthony Kay

By Anthony Franco | October 24, 2023 at 3:47pm CDT

The A’s announced they’ve claimed lefty reliever Anthony Kay off waivers from the Mets. New York had attempted to outright him off the 40-man roster last week.

Kay, a UCONN product, was selected by the Mets with the #31 pick in the 2016 draft. The Mets sent him to the Blue Jays as part of the Marcus Stroman deal. Kay pitched parts of four seasons with the Jays, working to a 5.48 ERA through 70 2/3 innings. Toronto lost him on waivers to the Cubs last offseason.

While Chicago quickly ran Kay through waivers themselves, they added him back to the roster in mid-June. He pitched 13 times for the Cubs, allowing eight runs in 11 1/3 innings. The Mets snagged him back via waivers with a couple weeks left in the season. He made four appearances with his original organization, working 3 2/3 frames of three-run ball to close the year. Kay’s fastball sat just under 95 MPH on average, yet he managed just an 11:9 strikeout-to-walk ratio between the two clubs.

The 28-year-old has yet to find much major league success. He has allowed 5.67 earned runs per nine, striking out an average 22.4% of batters faced against a lofty 12% walk rate. Kay showed some intriguing swing-and-miss numbers in Triple-A this year, combining for a 3.76 ERA while fanning over a third of opponents in 40 2/3 frames. While a 13.3% walk percentage still hints at real control woes, the solid minor league season and his decent velocity intrigued the A’s front office.

Kay is out of options, so the A’s can’t send him to the minors without first running him through waivers (at which point he’d have the ability to elect free agency). If they keep him on the 40-man roster all offseason, he’d need to secure a job in the MLB bullpen.

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New York Mets Oakland Athletics Transactions Anthony Kay

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NL Central Notes: Molina, Cardinals, Marlins, Kelly, Pirates

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 3:26pm CDT

With Yadier Molina and the Cardinals in talks about a coaching job for the longtime catcher, Molina discussed the situation in an interview with 550 KTRS radio (hat tip to Luis Nolla of KTRS for the partial transcript).  “I think there is something cooking with St. Louis,” Molina said, estimating “a 90 percent chance that it happens.”  After retiring following the 2022 season, Molina revealed that he had offers for some kind of coaching roles from both the Cardinals last year and from the Marlins.

In terms of his coaching future in general, Molina said “I see myself managing, coaching in the United States for a few years.  I like it.  I am a guy that is fascinated with baseball, and I am passionate about it.  To have an opportunity like that I cannot pass….St. Louis has given me the opportunity.  It is my second home.  There is always a good relationship and communication with them.  They are trying to guide me to that way, in the matter of being a coach.  They have their staff who have a good job with the team.  It would be an opportunity that it will be hard to say no to.  I love St. Louis.”

More from the NL Central…

  • In other Cardinals news, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch covered a wide slate of questions related to the Cards in his recent chat with readers, including the possibility of Jordan Hicks and Phil Maton being free agents targets for the team this winter.  The Cardinals traded Hicks to the Blue Jays at the deadline, but with Hicks headed back to the open market, “there will be a conversation about a reunion” in St. Louis, Goold writes.  Maton could also be “a name to watch,” both due to his ability and perhaps due to some local ties, as Maton went to high school about 90 minutes away from St. Louis in Chatham, Illinois.
  • Unsurprisingly, the Cubs will retain Dustin Kelly as their chief hitting coach next season, according to Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Chicago’s lineup made big improvements in 2023, Kelly’s first season on the staff, and his presence might help stop what has been a revolving door of Cubs hitting coaches over the last decade.  Sharma/Mooney provide some insight into how Kelly and his three assistant coaches were able to provide more specialized instruction to hitters, keeping communication strong while trying to marry a batter’s personal style to a broader approach.  “We come up with team principles that we want to execute.  But they still have to go up there and have their at-bat and stick to their strengths,” Kelly said back in September.
  • The Pirates are still planning to give Endy Rodriguez and Henry Davis regular reps at catcher next season, though Davis barely saw any time behind the plate after making his MLB debut last season, instead playing mostly as a right fielder.  With some lack of clarity of how the playing time will be split up, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette opines that the Pirates should just keep Rodriguez at catcher and Davis in right field, as both players might benefit from a clear focus on one position.  Rodriguez spent some time as a first baseman, second baseman, and outfielder in the minors, while Davis’ right field defense was shaky enough that he’ll likely need more offseason work to make himself a passable option at the position.
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Chicago Cubs Miami Marlins Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Dustin Kelly Endy Rodriguez Henry Davis Jordan Hicks Phil Maton Yadier Molina

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Offseason Chat Transcript: New York Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 3:00pm CDT

In conjunction with the Yankees’ entry in our Offseason Outlook series, we held a live chat specifically devoted to the Bronx Bombers.  Click here to read the transcript.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Chats New York Yankees

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Boston Red Sox

By Darragh McDonald | October 24, 2023 at 10:59am CDT

In conjunction with the recent offseason outlook, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald held a Red Sox-specific chat. Click here to read the transcript.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook Boston Red Sox MLBTR Chats

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Thad Levine No Longer A Candidate In Red Sox Front Office Search

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 10:02am CDT

As the Red Sox continue their search for a new head of baseball operations, Twins general manager Thad Levine is no longer in the running, according to Jeremy Nygaard of Twins Daily.  Levine was told yesterday by the Sox that he was no longer a candidate, MassLive.com’s Sean McAdam reports (via X).

The news comes as the Red Sox have apparently taken a next step in their selection process, as the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier writes that club has moved onto a second round of interviews.  Cubs assistant GM Craig Breslow is believed to have advanced to this second round, though it isn’t known how many other candidates might also be getting a second sitdown with team brass.  As per The Athletic’s Chad Jennings, “information is spotty” on the situation, but Red Sox assistant GM Eddie Romero and Breslow could both still be candidates.  Four other candidates known to have sat down for an initial interview remain in the process for now — Red Sox assistant GM Michael Groopman, Red Sox VP of player development/scouting Paul Toboni, former Pirates GM Neal Huntington, and former Phillies/Giants manager Gabe Kapler.

The 51-year-old Levine has been Minnesota’s GM since the 2016-17 offseason, working as the top lieutenant to chief baseball officer Derek Falvey (who turned down an interview offer from the Red Sox).  Levine has over two decades’ worth of experience working in the front offices of the Twins, Rangers, Rockies, and Dodgers, though he hasn’t yet gotten the chance to call the shots in a baseball operations department.  There have been a couple of close calls, however, as the Rockies and Phillies considered Levine for their most recent GM openings were respectively filled by Bill Schmidt and Dave Dombrowski.

Falvey, Kim Ng, Jon Daniels, James Click, Michael Hill, Sam Fuld, Brandon Gomes, and Mike Hazen are among the prominent executives who have declined to interview for the Red Sox job, yet it appears as though the club is satisfied enough with its current list of candidates to progress into what might be a final stage of the hiring process.  Breslow may or may not be the frontrunner, as reports have indicated that the Sox definitely see him as a candidate for some kind of front office role, if perhaps a GM working under a president of baseball operations moreso than a PBO himself.

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Boston Red Sox Minnesota Twins Craig Breslow Thad Levine

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Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 8:44am CDT

The Yankees’ 82-80 record kept the club’s streak of winning seasons alive, but that was small consolation within a very disappointing season in the Bronx.  Some manner of unspecified changes seem to be coming within the organization, yet GM Brian Cashman and manager Aaron Boone look to be returning, as the Yankees will try to figure how (or how much) to build around an incoming wave of young talent.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Aaron Judge, OF: $320MM through 2031
  • Gerrit Cole, SP: $180MM through 2028 (Cole can opt out after 2024 season, but Yankees can overwrite opt-out by adding a $36MM salary for 2029)
  • Carlos Rodon, SP: $135MM through 2028
  • Giancarlo Stanton, OF/DH: $128MM through 2027 (includes $10MM buyout of $25MM club option for 2028; Marlins paying $30MM of Stanton’s salary as per the terms of December 2017 trade)
  • DJ LeMahieu, IF: $45MM through 2026
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $23MM through 2024 (includes $6MM buyout of $17MM club option for 2025)
  • Tommy Kahnle, RP: $5.75MM through 2024

Other Financial Obligations

  • Josh Donaldson, 3B: $8MM buyout of $16MM club option for 2024 (Donaldson released on August 29)
  • Aaron Hicks, OF: $20MM through 2025 (Hicks released on May 25)

Total 2024 commitments: $161.25MM
Total future commitments: $856.75MM

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Lou Trivino (5.163): $4.1MM
  • Gleyber Torres (5.162): $15.3MM
  • Clay Holmes (5.031): $6MM
  • Jonathan Loaisiga (5.022): $2.5MM
  • Kyle Higashioka (5.005): $2.3MM
  • Franchy Cordero (4.160): $1.6MM
  • Domingo German (4.142): $4.4MM
  • Nestor Cortes (4.094): $3.9MM
  • Jose Trevino (4.063): $2.7MM
  • Matt Bowman (4.043): $1MM
  • Michael King (4.004): $2.6MM
  • Ryan Weber (3.167): $900K
  • Billy McKinney (3.087): $1.2MM
  • Jake Bauers (3.084): $1.7MM
  • Jimmy Cordero (3.061): $900K
  • Clarke Schmidt (2.148): $2.6MM
  • Albert Abreu (2.118): $900K
  • Non-tender candidates: German, Trivino, Cordero, Abreu, Bauers, McKinney, Bowman, Weber, Higashioka

Free Agents

  • Luis Severino, Wandy Peralta, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Frankie Montas, Keynan Middleton, Luke Weaver, Zach McAllister

2016 was the Yankees’ last season out of the playoffs, so it is perhaps instructive to look at how Cashman responded after that last setback.  Re-signing Aroldis Chapman and trading for Brian McCann were the two biggest moves of a relatively quiet (by Yankees standards) 2016-17 offseason, yet the club was able to rebound and reach Game 7 of the 2017 ALCS, as New York was revived by the “Baby Bombers” group that included Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and Gary Sanchez.

The Yankees would undoubtedly love to see another youth movement blossom in 2024, especially with so much promising young talent already debuting in the big leagues.  Anthony Volpe spent 2023 as New York’s everyday shortstop, Oswald Peraza got a bit more playing time than in 2022, and Everson Pereira, Austin Wells, and Jasson Dominguez all made their Major League debuts.  Even with Dominguez out until roughly the All-Star break due to Tommy John surgery, there is plenty of optimism that at least a couple of these highly-touted youngsters can break out in 2024.

That said, it isn’t the Yankees’ style to take a step back for a development year.  The club finds itself in the tough spot of wanting or needing to find playing time for these rookies, yet also definitely needing to make a strong return to contention.  It doesn’t appear as though managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner is yet considering firing Cashman, but for Boone, 2024 is the last guaranteed year of his contract, so the manager could be on the hot seat unless the Yankees at least make it back into the postseason.

For all of these bigger-picture issues facing the Yankees, their offseason plan is perhaps pretty simple — improve the offense.  New York finished within the bottom seven of the league in total runs, OPS, OBP, batting average, and were persistently undone by an inability to get hits with runners in scoring position.  Losing Judge to a torn toe ligament for close to seven weeks didn’t help, but almost all of New York’s other hitters had down years.  Judge (174), Gleyber Torres (123), and the lightly-used Dominguez and Greg Allen were the only Yankees hitters to post even a 102 wRC+, as DJ LeMahieu was the next best of the group with a slightly above-average 101 total.

In the most optimistic of views, getting healthy seasons from Judge and Anthony Rizzo, some level of bounce-back from LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton, and that aforementioned breakout from one or two of the rookies could greatly improve the lineup without even any outside upgrades.  But, that is asking a lot from inexperienced players, and it might be that LeMahieu and Stanton won’t ever regain their prime form.  Given the lingering effects of Rizzo’s post-concussion syndrome, it also shouldn’t be assumed that Rizzo will suddenly be an All-Star again even with an offseason of recovery.

To some extent, the rookie crop can be a hedge against the veterans’ chances of a comeback season.  LeMahieu and Peraza could be involved in a timeshare at third base, LeMahieu could likewise get some first base time along with Rizzo, and Pereira’s ability to become an everyday left fielder could keep Stanton firmly in a DH-only role, which may be for the best at this stage of his career.

Could a trade clear some room?  Stanton’s salary and his no-trade clause make him among the most immovable players in baseball, so the Yankees would have to eat virtually all of his contract to accommodate a deal, even if Stanton did agree to a move.  LeMahieu is also a tough sell in trade talks, given the $45MM left on his contract and his own no-trade protection due to his 10-and-5 status.  Rizzo is perhaps the easiest of the trio to move since he is only under contract through the 2024 season, yet the Yankees would be selling low given the unknowns of his injury situation, and they’d be losing one of the few left-handed bats from their heavily righty-leaning lineup.

Trading Torres would also seem counter-productive, as he was the team’s second-best hitter in 2023.  Moving Torres would both open up a natural middle infield spot for Peraza (or Volpe, if he was moved to second base and Peraza took over shortstop) and it would save some money, as Torres is projected for a huge arbitration raise to $15.3MM.  While the Yankees generally don’t pursue extensions as a club policy, there hasn’t been any indication that Torres is in the team’s plans beyond 2024, which is the second baseman’s final year of arbitration eligibility prior to free agency.  Still, the Yankees might be content to just let Torres walk in free agency rather than trade him this winter and create another question mark in the lineup.

When it comes to discussing Torres’ arbitration number or the possibility of eating money on contracts, it is fair to remember that this is still the New York Yankees we’re talking about.  As much as Bronx fans might consider the team to be more conservative spenders than they were in the George Steinbrenner era, the Yankees still had baseball’s second-highest payroll in 2023.  While far too much of that payroll went towards non-productive players, a case could certainly be made that the Bombers could address their offensive woes by splurging on some of the offseason’s top free agent bats.

For instance, releasing Stanton and absorbing his contract entirely might be an easier pill to swallow for the organization if it created DH space for a generational talent like Shohei Ohtani.  Rather than entrust third base to LeMahieu and Peraza, the Yankees could sign one of Jeimer Candelario or Matt Chapman, which might then create more flexibility to trade Torres to alleviate an infield logjam.

In terms of a perfect fit for New York’s needs, Cody Bellinger checks a lot of boxes.  The former NL MVP is a left-handed hitter who could either play center field until Dominguez is healthy, split time at first base with Rizzo, or move into left field if both Dominguez and Rizzo are healthy, thus upgrading the lineup both offensively and defensively.  The Yankees had interest in Bellinger when he was a free agent last season, though that was back when he was seeking a one-year contract, not the multi-year megadeal he’ll surely command this winter.

If not Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier or Jason Heyward could also fit as much less-expensive outfield options who are more than capable in center field.  If the Yankees wanted a left field-specific player on a one-year deal, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Michael Conforto, or a number of other options could emerge on the free agent or trade market.  Such an acquisition would perhaps limit Pereira to part-time duty, though Pereira did little to prove himself ready of a larger role given his .427 OPS over his first 103 plate appearances in the majors.  Acquiring a left-handed hitting outfielder would both help balance the lineup, and also create a platoon opportunity for the right-handed hitting Pereira.

As always, the Yankees figure to at least check in on virtually every top free agent due to their financial resources, and Cashman will also explore his options on the trade front.  As much as New York prizes its upcoming wave of prospects, a non-playoff year could make Cashman a little more aggressive in dealing from that depth for a win-now piece or two.  The Yankees figure to prioritize only trade targets with multiple years of control if they were to discuss Pereira, Volpe, or Peraza in any negotiations, unless a high-level player (i.e. Juan Soto) was perhaps made available.

One plus of retaining the rookies is that, in theory, their potential can at least raise the talent floor of the Yankees’ bench.  Isiah Kiner-Falefa was a usefully versatile player who could fill a lot of holes around the diamond, yet his lack of offense means that he isn’t likely to be re-signed.  IKF is one of several part-timers that don’t figure to return in 2024, with most as likely non-tender candidates within New York’s gigantic arbitration class.  Of that group, one of Jose Trevino or (probably more likely) Kyle Higashioka figure to be non-tendered, with the other remaining on hand to share time with Wells behind the plate.

Between the probable non-tenders and the free agent departures, roughly $39MM will be coming off the Yankees’ books.  It’s not a huge amount, and it’ll get smaller given the arbitration raises to Torres, Clay Holmes, and others.  This leaves New York with a projected luxury tax number that is already over the $237MM threshold, yet as noted earlier, it isn’t as if the Yankees were going to cut back spending….especially not after a non-playoff season.

After all of this focus on how the Yankees can improve their hitting, the pitching side can’t be ignored, as Gerrit Cole’s brilliance helped paper over some larger concerns within the rotation.  Cole will again be the team’s ace, but Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes will be trying to rebound from injury-plagued seasons, and Clarke Schmidt and Michael King are still both relatively untested as starters (though both have looked quite good at times).  To add depth, the Yankees could consider a reunion with Luis Severino or Frankie Montas on low-cost deals, though either pitcher might prefer for a fresh start with a club that provide a clearer path to rotation work.

Rodon’s struggles in his first year in the Bronx could make the Bombers a little wary about immediately signing another starter to a pricey long-term contract, yet this could still be an option this winter.  Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been heavily scouted by the Yankees and many other teams, and could be the most realistic top-tier pitching option for New York to pursue because Yamamoto is only 25 and might not even be in his prime years.  If the Yankees wanted to make a shorter-term upgrade for the front of the rotation, such arms as the Brewers’ Corbin Burnes or the Guardians’ Shane Bieber are free agents after 2024, but would naturally still some at a significant trade cost.

New York’s bullpen flew somewhat under the radar as one of the better relief units in baseball, so the Yankees could be in good shape since most of the relievers will be coming back.  Pitching coach Matt Blake and bullpen coach Mike Harkey have shown a knack for getting strong results out of a variety of pitchers (whether veterans, rookies, or unheralded acquisitions), so the Yankees don’t necessarily need any big-ticket additions to the relief corps.

Wandy Peralta posted good numbers despite some very shaky advanced metrics in 2023, and even if the Yankees pass on re-signing Peralta himself, they’ll likely seek out another southpaw to fill Peralta’s role.  Finding a replacement for King could be more difficult, as King was excellent in a multi-inning relief role last year but is going to be stretched out for a potential rotation job next year.  While King could always just return to the pen if his starting gig doesn’t work out, his value as a relief arm could be another reason for the Yankees to seek out a more seasoned starter over the winter.

For all of the ways the Yankees could be different on the field in 2024, it also seems apparent that some things need to happen behind the scenes.  Much was made earlier this month about an external audit the Yankees were planning as a top-to-bottom overview of the organization’s practices, but it remains to be seen if any changes made will translate to a return to the postseason.  Cashman’s job might not necessarily be on the line, yet the general manager is facing more public pressure than at any time during his long tenure running the Bombers’ front office.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Yankees-centric chat on 10-24-23 at 1:40pm CT. Click here to read the transcript.

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2023-24 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals New York Yankees

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The Opener: Rangers Triumph, Garver, NLCS Game 7

By Mark Polishuk | October 24, 2023 at 7:44am CDT

Three items on the morning docket, including one half of the World Series matchup being finalized…

1. Rangers win the AL pennant:

The Rangers held a 3-0 lead after the first half-inning of Game 7, and an 8-2 lead after the top of the fourth.  Ergo, there ultimately wasn’t much drama as Texas vanquished the Astros by an 11-4 final in the deciding game of the American League Championship Series.  While many of the Rangers’ bats were cooking in the game, the club was led once again by Adolis Garcia, who went 4-for-5 with a pair of solo home runs.  Garcia captured ALCS MVP honors for hitting .357/.400/.893 with five homers and 15 RBI over 30 plate appearances in the seven games, setting a new MLB record for most RBI in a single postseason series.

The road team won all seven games in the unusual series, as the Rangers had to fight back from a 3-2 series deficit by winning both Games 6 and 7 in Houston.  Texas has to hope this road-team trend doesn’t continue, as the Rangers will now hold homefield advantage in the World Series over whichever team comes out of the National League.  The Rangers are 0-2 in their two previous trips to the Fall Classic (in 2010 and 2011), and are still looking for the first championship in franchise history.  As for the Astros, the disappointing loss might lead to some major change heading into 2024, as manager Dusty Baker has indicated that he might be retiring.

2. Mitch Garver’s status:

One downside for the Rangers was a possible injury to Mitch Garver, who was hit in the ribs by a Bryan Abreu pitch in the sixth inning. Garver was in obvious discomfort after the HBP but remained in the game and scored on Nathaniel Lowe’s home run, though he was replaced by a pinch-hitter in his next at-bat.  Garver seemed to be feeling okay when interviewing with Ben Verlander following the game, though the designated hitter underwent some x-rays.

There hasn’t yet been word on the outcome of those tests, but needless to say, there will be some nervousness in Arlington unless Garver is cleared for the World Series.  Acting as the Rangers’ regular DH throughout the playoffs, Garver has hit .294/.368/.529 with two homers in 38 PA, continuing his hot hitting from the regular season.

3. NLCS Game 7:

With one league champion decided, we get to enjoy some more nail-biting Game 7 action tonight when the Phillies host the Diamondbacks in the final game of the National League Championship Series.  Trailing 3-2 in the series heading into yesterday’s Game 6, the D’Backs stayed alive with a 5-1 victory, built on the strength of a three-run rally in second inning.  Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Tommy Pham each hit solo homers, and Ketel Marte continued his bid for NLCS MVP by going 2-for-5 for his fourth multi-hit game of the series.

Brandon Pfaadt (5 2/3 scoreless innings) and Ranger Suarez (5 1/3 shutout frames) each looked very sharp in Game 3 of the NLCS, and they’ll face off again as the scheduled starters for Game 7.  That said, both teams figure to have relatively quick hooks, as pretty much every pitcher on either roster will be available for some usage in the winner-take-all showdown.  On a historical note, this will be the first time in the Phillies’ 141-year franchise history that the club will play a Game 7 of a playoff series.

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