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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Willson Contreras Out At Catcher For Cardinals, Braves Rotation, Rays, Astros

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Episode 6 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Katie Woo of The Athletic to discuss:

  • The Cardinals’ decision to move Willson Contreras out of the catching position for the time being (3:16)
  • Nolan Arenado’s early-season struggles (8:22)
  • Will the Cardinals trade an outfielder to fill other needs? (9:49)
  • Jordan Montgomery, possible extension candidate? (12:06)

After Katie talked Cardinals with Simon, MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald comes on the podcast to dig into:

  • The Braves’ rotation in the wake of Max Fried’s forearm strain (15:56)
  • Why have the Rays been so good? (19:17)
  • The Astros’ sluggish start to the season (25:16)

Check out our past episodes!

Marlins To Promote Eury Pérez

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The Marlins announced to reporters, including Craig Mish of the Miami Herald, they are calling up pitching prospect Eury Pérez. He’ll take the ball for Friday’s game. He’s not currently on the 40-man roster and will require a corresponding move to be added.

Both this move and Pérez himself are unique in a few respects. The promotion is an aggressive one given that the right-hander only just turned 20 years old last month and has yet to pitch in Triple-A. That makes him unusually young for a major league debut, with JJ Cooper of Baseball America pointing out Pérez is about to be the youngest starting pitcher in the majors since Julio Urías in 2016. The pitcher himself is also unique in terms of his size, listed at 6’8″ and 220 pounds.

Signed as an international amateur out of the Dominican Republic in July of 2019, he wasn’t able to make his professional debut until over a year later since the minor leagues were canceled by the pandemic in 2020. The Marlins sent him to Single-A to begin 2021 and he dominated in his 15 starts there. He posted a 1.61 ERA in 56 innings, striking out 36.9% of opponents while walking 9.5% and getting grounders at a 36.4% clip. He was then given the ball for five High-A starts at the end of the year, posting a 2.86 ERA in those.

Going into 2022, he was already considered by many observers to be one of the better pitching prospects in the league, but he continued to raise his stock. Despite just being 19 years old for most of last year, he made 17 starts at the Double-A level. He posted a 4.08 ERA in those along with a 34.1% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 41.4% ground ball rate.

Coming into 2023, the youngster was unanimously considered to be one of the best prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him #7 overall and he’s since moved up to #6. MLB Pipeline had him at #13 and he’s now in the top 10. He was #4 at FanGraphs, #6 at ESPN and Keith Law of The Athletic had him at #10. The reports highlight his fastball, which he can not only ramp up to triple digits but also command exceptionally well. Most observers agree that his changeup is his best secondary pitch, though his slider and curveball both get good reviews as well. By all accounts, Pérez has the ingredients to be a future ace and he keeps proving it. Through his six Double-A starts this year, he has a 2.32 ERA, 35.9% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 51.6% ground ball rate.

That being said, not all prospects hit the ground running as soon as they reach the majors and it’s not something that should be expected for even the top names. That’s especially true for Pérez given his youth and relative inexperience. His entire professional track record consists of just 186 innings at this point, including just 77 last year, and none of that was at Triple-A. He’s yet to truly test his stuff against big league caliber hitters and it remains to be seen how many innings the Marlins will let him rack up this year. Nonetheless, it will be very exciting to see how the gamble pays off for them.

The club has had a strong rotation for many years and felt good enough about their options that they traded Pablo López to the Twins this winter in order to obtain Luis Arraez. However, they’ve been dealing with a few challenges this year, as both Trevor Rogers and Johnny Cueto are on the injured list with uncertain return timelines. Jesús Luzardo is having a nice season so far but Sandy Alcantara hasn’t quite been his Cy Young self, while Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera have each posted middling results so far.

Pérez will now step into that mix and see how he fares, with his performance likely to have some impact on whether this is a brief cup of coffee or if he’s up for good. Since the season is over a month old at this point, Pérez won’t be able to accrue a full year of service time the old fashioned way, though the new collective bargaining agreement affords him a path to get there. A player with less than 60 days of service time who is on two of the top 100 prospect lists at BA, MLB or ESPN will get a full year of service, regardless of the time they spend on the roster, if they finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting. Pérez was on all three of those lists and is therefore eligible, but it will be a challenge to rank that highly given the late start. He’ll be competing with players like Corbin Carroll and James Outman who have already had plenty of time to bank stats this year.

Even if he finished the year shy of the one-year mark, his youth would still put him on a good trajectory. If he’s up for good, he would almost certainly qualify for arbitration as a Super Two player after the 2025 campaign and be on pace for free agency after 2029, which would be his age-26 season. Future optional assignments could push those targets further into the future, though he could also reach free agency after 2028 by succeeding in getting that full year here in 2023.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Royals Receiving Trade Interest In Aroldis Chapman

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The Royals are getting early trade interest in Aroldis Chapman, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic. The seven-time All-Star is off to a strong start to the season.

Chapman has appeared in 14 games and tallied 12 2/3 innings out of Matt Quatraro’s bullpen. He’s allowed only five runs (four earned) and posted a 20:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 52 plate appearances. His 38.5% strikeout rate checks in eighth among the 219 relievers with 10+ innings. Chapman has gotten a swinging strike on 18.1% of his offerings — the 15th-best mark in MLB — and is holding opposing hitters to a .174/.269/.196 line overall.

The longtime star closer looks far better thus far in Kansas City than he did at the end of his Yankees’ tenure. The southpaw hit free agency last winter with his value at perhaps the lowest ebb of his career. Chapman had allowed a 4.46 ERA during his final season in the Bronx. His strikeout rate dropped below 30% for the first time in his 14-season MLB career, while last year’s 12.7% swinging strike rate was quite a bit below Chapman’s previous norms. Perhaps most worrisome was New York’s decision to leave him off its playoff rosters after Chapman spent time on the injured list with an infected tattoo and subsequently missed a team workout.

Chapman hasn’t quite returned to peak form, when his fastball was sitting in the triple digits and he was punching out just under half his opponents. He’s off to his best start in three years, though, again looking the part of a high-leverage arm. Chapman is averaging 99.3 MPH on his heater and 87.9 MPH on his slider, each figure checking in around two ticks harder than last season’s averages.

It’s still a small sample, but the early results are exactly what the Royals had envisioned when they took a buy-low flier in late January. Kansas City inked Chapman to a one-year, $3.75MM guarantee. The deal contained up to $5MM in additional performance bonuses — up to $2.5MM based on appearances, $2.5MM on games finished — but those incentives look perfectly reasonable so long as Chapman is pitching this well. The 35-year-old will receive $312,500 for every fifth appearance between 20 and 55 outings, and he’d land a matching sum for every fourth game finished between 12 and 40.

Chapman is at 14 appearances in 38 games. He’s on pace to max out the $2.5MM in appearance incentives. Kansas City has used him mostly in the middle innings while keeping Scott Barlow in the closer role. Chapman has four games finished, putting him on pace for 17. Of course, if Kansas City (or an acquiring team) installs him as their closer at any point, he’d be in better position to unlock more of those incentives. That’d be a good problem to have if Chapman is closing games effectively.

Despite the veteran reliever’s contributions, the Royals are off to a nightmarish start overall. They have an 11-27 record that has them ahead of only the A’s in the American League. A 35-year-old reliever on a one-year contract for a noncompetitive team is a straightforward trade candidate, so it’s little surprise bullpen-needy clubs are getting in touch with the K.C. front office.

While the Royals are receiving early trade interest, it’s unlikely any deal will come together in the immediate future. For one, Chapman can’t be traded without his consent until next month. Major league free agents who sign MLB contracts receive an automatic no-trade right until June 15 of the following season under the collective bargaining agreement. Even if Chapman were amenable to waiving that to join a contender within the next five weeks, it’s rare to see trades of significance hammered out this early in the season.

Traditionally, the Royals have been more willing than most clubs to explore early-season trades if they’re well out of contention. They dealt Carlos Santana to the Mariners in late June last season and reportedly began shopping Andrew Benintendi around the same time. Those moves came under former president of baseball operations Dayton Moore, though, and earnestly shopping veteran players in the second week of May is a different level altogether. Even with the Royals highly likely to miss the playoffs, it’s easier for them to hold Chapman for now as rival teams take more time to determine how aggressively to pursue trades for relief help.

So long as he’s healthy and still performing in four to six weeks, Chapman figures to be a very popular target. The Royals could also market Barlow, who has a season and a half of remaining arbitration control, and impending free agent southpaw Amir Garrett.

Taylor Motter Accepts Outright Assignment

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Cardinals utilityman Taylor Motter has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Memphis, the club informed reporters (including Jeff Jones of the Belleville News Democrat). He remains in the organization without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.

St. Louis had designated Motter for assignment last weekend. He cleared waivers on Monday but had the right to test free agency as a player who has gone unclaimed on outright waivers multiple times in his career. After some time to consider the decision, he’ll stick in the system and try to play his way back onto the big league roster.

Motter signed a minor league deal with St. Louis last offseason. He’s twice gotten onto the MLB roster but been DFA rather quickly both times. Over his two stints, he’s played in eight games and tallied a .200/.273/.300 batting line through 22 trips to the plate. That brings his career slash to .191/.263/.309 in 169 major league contests. The right-handed hitter is far more accomplished at the Triple-A level. He’s a .262/.352/.482 hitter in more than 2000 Triple-A plate appearances over parts of six seasons.

Among the reasons for Motter’s initial stint on the MLB roster was a season-opening injured list stay for Paul DeJong. The Cards reinstated DeJong a couple weeks ago and have seen their one-time starting shortstop get off to a scorching start in a utility role. Through 12 games, DeJong has already picked up three homers and sports a .350/.409/.650 line overall.

That’s miles better than the .182/.269/.352 slash DeJong had mustered from 2021-22. While it’s too early to draw firm conclusions, he’s obviously off to a much stronger start than anticipated, a particularly welcome development in the final guaranteed season of his contract.

A Cash Transaction Paying Off For The Giants

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It has been a middling start for the Giants, who fell to 16-20 with a loss to the Nationals this evening. San Francisco’s lineup has been a mediocre group overall, largely thanks to slow starts from Michael Conforto, David Villar and Brandon Crawford.

Despite the bland overall results, the Giants are getting strong contributions from a handful of players acquired in minor trades. LaMonte Wade Jr., J.D. Davis and Mike Yastrzemski all landed in the organization via small or buy-low deals. That’s also true of the player who has been arguably the team’s most valuable contributor in 2023: middle infielder Thairo Estrada.

Estrada began his professional career a little more than a decade ago. He signed with the Yankees as an amateur out of Venezuela. While he was never an elite prospect, the 5’10” infielder appeared among the organization’s top 30 minor league talents at Baseball America every year between 2014-19. Estrada had been an effective hitter up through Double-A but he lost the bulk of the 2018 season after being shot in the leg during a robbery attempt the preceding offseason. He required a pair of surgeries, and while he returned to play the majority of the ’19 campaign, his offensive numbers in Triple-A dropped.

The Yankees played Estrada sparingly at the big league level between 2019-20. Relegated to a depth role on a roster with DJ LeMahieu, Gio Urshela and Gleyber Torres, he appeared in 61 games in pinstripes. New York designated him for assignment during the first week of the 2021 season upon trading for Rougned Odor to serve as a depth infielder. The Giants jumped the waiver order, acquiring Estrada for cash five days later.

Getting any kind of contributions from a player added for that kind of minimal cost would have counted as a win. Estrada has far exceeded what the Giants themselves likely had anticipated. He was on and off the active roster in 2021, hitting .273/.333/.479 in 52 big league contests. By last season, he’d established himself as the primary second baseman. Estrada held that job with another above-average showing, putting together a .260/.322/.400 line with 14 home runs and 21 stolen bases through a personal-high 541 plate appearances.

San Francisco tabbed Estrada as its Opening Day second baseman for a second consecutive season. He’s responded with a torrid start, carrying a .338/.388/.522 slash over 38 games. He’s already connected on six home runs and seven doubles, and he’s swiped 10 bags in 12 attempts. Estrada has split his defensive work almost evenly between the two middle infield spots, moving to shortstop lately after Crawford hit the injured list. Public metrics suggest he’s better suited for second base, where he figures to return once Crawford is healthy.

Estrada isn’t going to keep hitting at this pace. He’s running a .396 batting average on balls in play in spite of a modest 31.8% hard contact rate. As a few more batted balls find gloves, his offense will take a step back. Even with some regression, Estrada looks to have established himself as a slightly above-average hitter. He’s now up to 820 plate appearances of .277/.336/.435 batting since landing in San Francisco. He puts the ball in play to compensate for middling walk totals and has solid if unexceptional power.

Combine that offense with quality baserunning and the ability to play up the middle and Estrada looks like a well-rounded everyday option who’s currently playing at an All-Star level. The Giants have already gotten far more out of Estrada than teams get in the vast majority of transactions for players who’d been in DFA limbo.

He’s likely to remain a contributor — albeit not quite at his early-season level — for the next few seasons. Estrada is making just $2.25MM in his first of four years of arbitration eligibility. The Giants can keep him around via that process through 2026. It’s rare for teams to retain players whom they’d added in a cash transaction for multiple seasons but Estrada has played his way into an important role in the Bay Area.

AL Notes: Rodon, Walsh, Brantley, Martin

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The Yankees have been without Carlos Rodón to this point. New York’s big offseason acquisition was sidelined by a minor forearm strain in Spring Training and subsequently bothered by back issues. The back has kept him out of action and raised particular concern last week when Rodón told reporters that doctors had called his injury a “chronic” problem.

While that cast plenty of uncertainty as to when the star southpaw would be able to take the mound, it’s possible he starts ramping up in the coming days. Chris Kirschner of the Athletic tweeted yesterday that Rodón will work out on Friday after receiving a cortisone injection. It’s possible he progresses back to mound work as soon as this weekend, which would enable him to begin building strength via a throwing program.

The Yankees have also been without Frankie Montas and Luis Severino due to injuries. Montas is going to be out until late in the year, but Severino threw 3 1/3 innings for Triple-A Scranton Wilkes/Barre to start a rehab assignment this afternoon. Those injuries have forced the Yankees to rely on the likes of Domingo Germán, Jhony Brito and Clarke Schmidt out of the rotation to middling results.

Checking in on some other injury situations around the AL:

  • Jared Walsh will head on a rehab stint with the Angels’ top affiliate in Salt Lake this weekend, the team informed reporters (including Sam Blum of the Athletic). He’ll play at least three games with the Bees before the Halos determine whether he’s ready for his first MLB action of the season. Walsh lost the first six weeks to insomnia and recurring headaches. Now that he’s put that behind him, he’ll try to get on track offensively. An All-Star in 2021, the lefty-swinging first baseman slumped to a .215/.269/.374 showing last year before his season was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome. The Angels have divided first base reps almost evenly between Brandon Drury, Gio Urshela and Jake Lamb. The left-handed hitting Lamb has struggled in the early going and could be the odd man out once Walsh is ready to return.
  • Michael Brantley has yet to make his season debut for the Astros. Over the weekend, Houston had hinted he could be back for their three-game set in Anaheim to start the week. That didn’t happen and manager Dusty Baker said today the veteran outfielder departed the team to go for some testing (via Chandler Rome of the Athletic). The Astros were customarily reluctant to divulge specifics, but it’s no longer entirely clear when they expect Brantley to be ready for activation. He’d been ramping up from last year’s season-ending shoulder surgery and had played in nine rehab games with Triple-A Sugar Land through last Saturday.
  • The White Sox placed right-hander Davis Martin on the minor league injured list last week. Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets that Martin has a forearm strain in his throwing arm. The issue’s severity isn’t clear, though forearm strains can sometimes be precursors for more serious injuries. At the very least, it seems he’ll be out of the short-term mix should the team need to tap into its rotation depth. Martin started nine of 14 MLB games last year, working to a 4.83 ERA across 63 1/3 innings. He entered 2023 as the #6 starter on the depth chart. Martin had been pitching well for Charlotte, allowing only five runs with 20 strikeouts and seven walks over 16 innings. Chicago has avoided rotation injuries at the big league level; the group of Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn, Michael Kopech and Mike Clevinger has taken all 38 starts thus far.

Sixto Sanchez Experienced Minor Shoulder Soreness, Marlins Targeting Second-Half Return

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The Marlins have been without Sixto Sánchez for nearly three years. The one-time top prospect and headliner of the J.T. Realmuto trade has had his career thrown off track by injuries. Shoulder problems have been the main concern, as Sánchez has twice undergone shoulder surgery since July 2021.

That extended layoff has left Sánchez without a particularly clear recovery timetable. While he’d expressed some optimism at the start of the offseason he’d be ready for Spring Training, it became apparent by February a midseason return was the best-case scenario. That has seemingly been pushed back a little further, as the team informed reporters that Sánchez experienced some shoulder soreness following an extended Spring Training outing last week (via MLB.com injury tracker).

This particular issue doesn’t seem all that worrisome. Sánchez has already returned to playing catch this week, according to MLB.com. It’s nevertheless a subpar development for a pitcher who is hoping to get back into affiliated games this year. Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald write the organization views August or September as a viable target date for Sánchez’s return to minor league games. It’s clear he’s not an option in the immediate future and at least raises some question about whether the 24-year-old will be able to pitch in an MLB game this season.

Given Sánchez’s repeated setbacks, it’s not surprising Jackson and Mish report that Miami no longer views him as an integral part of their long-term pitching plans. Sánchez is still young and controllable for six seasons but he’ll go almost three years between regular season appearances. Even once he’s able to return, there’s no guarantee he’ll do so with high-octane stuff.

Sánchez averaged 98.5 MPH on his four-seam and 96.6 MPH on his sinker during his seven-start MLB debut back in 2020. The righty told reporters this spring he’d lost almost 50 pounds over the offseason, though, and the organization has taken its time to allow him to build his conditioning after so many stops and starts in his rehab.

The Fish could also soon face some pressure from a roster management perspective. They’ve kept him on the 40-man roster throughout his rehab. That’s a testament to his ceiling but also limits their flexibility somewhat. While they could place him on the 60-day injured list during the season, doing so would require paying him the MLB minimum salary (at which they’ve thus far balked). There is no IL over the offseason, so he’d have to count against the 40-man tally during the winter.

More pressing is that the Fish have used their option years to keep Sánchez on the minor league IL. Most players can only be optioned in three separate seasons in their careers. Exceptions are sometimes made to grant a fourth option year when a player has missed an extended chunk of action. The Marlins received a fourth option on Sánchez for 2023. There’s no such thing as a fifth option, however, so the Marlins won’t be able to send Sánchez back to the minors next season unless they first pass him through waivers.

Antonio Senzatela Leaves Start Early With Forearm Tightness

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6:38pm: Senzatela told Saunders postgame that the soreness is at the bottom of his forearm near his elbow (Twitter link). The righty is headed for further evaluation tomorrow but conceded he’s concerned about the injury.

3:09pm: An already beleaguered Rockies rotation took yet another hit Wednesday, as right-hander Antonio Senzatela departed after 2 2/3 innings due to what manager Bud Black announced after the game as right forearm tightness, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. Senzatela surrendered three runs prior to his departure, with his final pitch resulting in a two-run homer by Andrew McCutchen.

Senzatela only just returned from a roughly year-long absence due to a torn ACL. Wednesday’s outing was only his second of the 2023 season. In 7 2/3 innings, he’s allowed four runs on seven hits and a pair of walks with four strikeouts. Three of those seven hits have left the yard.

The Rockies are already without top starter German Marquez, whose 2023 season is over due to Tommy John surgery. They’ve also already released right-hander Jose Urena, who opened the season in the rotation after re-signing on a $3.5MM deal. Rookie right-hander Noah Davis, who’d also been auditioning for a long-term spot in the rotation, landed on the injured list in late April due to inflammation in his right elbow.

If Senzatela misses any time, the Rockies’ rotation will be down to Kyle Freeland, Austin Gomber, Ryan Feltner and Connor Seabold. Feltner has just 28 Major League starts under his belt and a career 5.90 ERA. Seabold has just 15 Major League games — only eight of them starts — and a 7.40 ERA through 45 innings. The Rockies are exceptionally thin on rotation options beyond that group. Right-hander Peter Lambert relieved Senzatela today and could be an option, but he pitched just 30 1/3 innings from 2020-22 combined due to injuries. His workload will surely be monitored in 2023.

Available options outside the organization are few and far between, though a handful of veteran arms were recently designated for assignment. The Rays designated Chase Anderson just today, while righties Luis Cessa and Chase De Jong were designated by the Reds and Pirates, respectively, yesterday. It’s hardly the most exciting group of arms, but each is at least stretched out to throw multiple innings. The free-agent market isn’t much better. Left-hander Madison Bumgarner was released by the D-backs earlier this season after looking lost on the mound through his first several turns. There are a handful of veterans of some note who remain unsigned from the offseason (e.g. Michael Pineda, Chris Archer, Mike Minor, Dallas Keuchel), but no one from that group would be ready to step right into a big league rotation.

Senzatela, 28, is in the second season of a five-year, $50.5MM contract extension. The Rockies are paying him $7.25MM in 2023 and will owe him $12MM per season from 2024-26 before deciding on a $14MM club option for the 2027 season. In 677 career innings entering play today, the right-hander carried a 4.85 ERA with a 15.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 50.6% ground-ball rate.

Phillies Place Jose Alvarado On Injured List

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6:29pm: The MRI showed only inflammation, no structural damage, Thomson told reporters (including Gelb). He’ll be shut down from throwing for a few days but seems to have avoided a serious injury.

12:14pm: Alvarado has already undergone an MRI and is meeting with a doctor to evaluate the results, tweets Matt Gelb of The Athletic. Gelb adds that manager Rob Thomson has acknowledged that he is “a little concerned, for sure.”

11:07am: The Phillies announced Wednesday that closer Jose Alvarado has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to inflammation in his left elbow. His IL stint is retroactive to May 8. Right-hander Andrew Bellatti has been reinstated from the 15-day injured list in place of Alvarado.

The team hasn’t provided a timetable on the injury yet, but the loss of Alvarado even for a minimal stint is a notable blow to the roster. Alvarado, who signed a two-year extension prior to the season, has been one of the most dominant relievers in Major League Baseball this season. He’s fired 14 1/3 innings of 1.88 ERA ball with a sensational 46.2% strikeout rate that trails only Cincinnati’s Alexis Diaz for the MLB lead. More impressive is the fact that Alvarado, whose previous command issues are well documented, has yet to issue a walk or hit a batter so far in 2023.

With Alvarado sidelined for at least the next two weeks the Phillies will likely turn to a combination of Craig Kimbrel, Seranthony Dominguez and perhaps Gregory Soto to close down games. Alvarado leads the team with five saves but hasn’t been the sole closer anyhow, as Kimbrel has three saves of his own.

Kimbrel was tagged for three runs in his first appearance of the season before going on a dominant stretch of 10 appearances (10 2/3 innings, two runs, 14-to-4 K/BB ratio). He’s since slipped again, yielding a combined six runs in one inning during two appearances at Dodger Stadium earlier this month, which sent his ERA careening to its current 7.62 level. Dominguez saved nine games for the 2022 Phillies but currently has a 5.02 ERA and has seen his strikeout rate plummet from 29.5% to 20.5% in 2023. Soto notched 30 saves for the 2022 Tigers and is sporing a career-best 30.8% strikeout rate, but he’s also walked 13.8% of his opponents, which has contributed to a lackluster 4.50 ERA.

Suffice it to say, the Phillies certainly aren’t lacking in talented arms with closing experience. However, Alvarado was the only one of the bunch performing at an elite (or even above-average) level early in the 2023 season. They’ll hope for a quick turnaround with no long-term, lingering effects — due both to his general excellence and the nature of the contract he signed six weeks ago. Alvarado would’ve been a free agent following the 2023 season, but he signed a two-year, $18.55MM extension with a club option for a third year in 2026.

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