Which Teams Are Most Likely To Sign The Top Remaining Free Agents?
Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to Spring Training in just over a week but there’s still plenty of offseason business that remains unfinished. There are still four free agents that could plausibly land a long-term, nine-figure deal: Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Matt Chapman. There are also plenty of other free agents who should be in line for significant short-term deals, such as J.D. Martinez, Gary Sánchez, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Tim Anderson, Amed Rosario, Gio Urshela, Michael Lorenzen, Jorge Soler, Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more.
Many of those players, including all of the big four, are represented by Scott Boras. He has a reputation of letting his players linger on the market, even if that means pushing things into March or even into the regular season. This tactic has yielded mixed results over the years but there have been many instances of significant deals getting done at this late period of the offseason.
It seems that the ongoing bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group is having an impact on this winter’s market. Many clubs are trying to cut back payroll due to uncertainty around their broadcast revenue, which is having a domino effect on various players. For example, the Padres’ TV deal collapsed last year and they are now looking to get under the competitive balance tax for 2024. That means they have been less of a factor in the free agent market. Also, they traded Juan Soto to the Yankees to free up payroll, which means that the Yanks didn’t need to upgrade their outfield via free agency.
So, who still has powder dry? Let’s take a broad look at the clubs and see where the payrolls are, compared to previous spending or where the decision makers/reporters have said it will go this year. Payroll data and estimates courtesy of Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource.
- Over Top CBT Tier: Mets, Dodgers, Yankees
The fourth and final tier of the CBT is $297MM this year and each of these three clubs are comfortably beyond it. The Mets are at $322MM, the Yankees at $305MM and the Dodgers at $308MM. Each of the three are also third-time payors, which comes with escalating tax rates. Any further spending from these clubs now comes with a 110% rate, meaning it would cost them more than double the amount going to the player.
That doesn’t mean they can’t fit in another deal. For instance, the Mets were already well over the top line last year when they agreed to a deal with Carlos Correa. That deal eventually fell apart due to medical concerns, but it shows that the luxury tax is different than a hard salary cap and teams can continue soaring to new spending heights if they so choose.
The Mets aren’t likely to do something huge in the coming weeks, as they are doing a semi-reset and have limited themselves to short-term deals this offseason. The Yankees and Dodgers each have loaded lineups but questionable rotation depth. However, the Dodgers have avoided long-term deals for pitchers historically, while the Yankees reportedly pivoted to Marcus Stroman when they balked at the asking prices of Snell and Montgomery.
- Higher Than They’ve Been Before: Braves, Astros, Blue Jays, Diamondbacks, Rays
Any of these clubs could decide to spend some more, but they are currently set to be in record territory and they would need to be willing to push things even farther than they already have.
Atlanta’s CBT number is currently estimated at $270MM. That’s well beyond last year’s $246MM figure and just shy of the third tier, which is $277MM. Going over that third line comes with increased taxation but also requires a club’s highest pick in the next draft to be pushed back 10 spots. Atlanta isn’t generally a huge player in free agency anyway, preferring to extend its incumbent players while being aggressive on the trade market.
The Astros have gone near to the tax line under Jim Crane but have generally avoided going over. Their only previous season going beyond it was 2020, when the penalties were eliminated during the shortened season. They came into the offseason with their CBT number hovering right around the border, which seemed to limit their activity until a season-ending injury for Kendall Graveman pushed them to get a deal done with Josh Hader. They’re now at $255MM, just shy of the second tier, which is $257MM.
The Blue Jays paid the tax for the first time last year, getting their CBT number up to $246MM. They are now at $251MM, only a bit higher, but the pure payroll is a big jump. They spent $214MM last year and already have $240MM in commitments for 2024.
The Diamondbacks have a franchise-high payroll of $132MM, which was set back in 2018. Last year was a financial mixed bag, as they made a surprise run to the World Series and netted some extra playoff revenue but their TV deal also collapsed. They’ve been fairly active this winter and are set to start the season with a payroll of $142MM.
Despite a cost-cutting trade of Tyler Glasnow, the Rays are still in uncharted waters for them. Their $93MM payroll would be a franchise high, with Cot’s having their franchise record as $84MM from 2022.
- Pretty Close To Last Year: Phillies, Rangers, Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, Guardians, Pirates
Each of these clubs is currently within the ballpark of where they were last year. Perhaps that means they are content with their current level, but deciding to make a jump is always a possibility.
The Phillies had a $246MM payroll and $263MM CBT number last year, with those numbers now at $238MM and $253MM. Presumably, they wouldn’t want to cross the third CBT line and have their top draft pick pushed back 10 spots. Since that line is $277MM this year, they could have some room there, especially with a creatively-structured deal.
The Rangers have been very aggressive in recent offseasons but came into this winter with some trepidation. Despite just winning the World Series, their TV deal seemed to be in danger of collapsing. The latest reporting indicates their relationship with Diamond Sports Group could continue for at least one more year, though likely with reduced fees coming to the club. Their payroll and CBT were $214MM and $237MM last year, with those numbers now at $221MM and $243MM for 2024.
The Cards had a payroll of $178MM last year and are at $179MM this year. They may push that a bit further to get another reliever, but seem fairly content with their rotation and position player mix. The Mariners will reportedly end up above last year, but not by too much thanks to their own TV revenue situation. Their payroll was at $140MM last year and are at $135MM at the moment. The Nationals were at $109MM last year and are set for a bump to $125MM this year. They are still nowhere near their franchise highs but they’re unlikely to get back into that range while still rebuilding. A big strike next winter when Patrick Corbin‘s deal is off the books would make more sense. The Guardians were at $98MM last year and are at $96MM now. The Pirates have gone from $70MM to $79MM.
- Some Wiggle Room To The Tax Threshold: Padres, Giants, Cubs
Each of these clubs is within striking distance of the lowest CBT threshold and probably won’t cross it. The Padres have been cutting spending this winter due to their TV deal collapsing and their past aggression putting them out of whack with the league’s debt-to-service ratio rule. Their CBT number is at $215MM, which gives them some room to work with before getting to the $237MM base threshold. But they arguably need two outfielders, two starting pitchers and a designated hitter, so they may have to spread their money around.
The Giants haven’t paid the tax in recent years but still have some space before they would get there this year. Their CBT number is currently at $208MM, with the base threshold at $237MM this year. Even if they want to avoid going over the line, they could still add $25MM or so while still leaving a bit of room for midseason additions. Many predicted them as a landing spot for Bellinger earlier in the offseason but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. Chapman could still fit at third base, with J.D. Davis then moving into a part-time/DH role or ending up on the trading block. The rotation still has plenty of question marks behind Logan Webb, so either Snell or Montgomery would be a sensible target as well.
The Cubs are in a somewhat similar position, having not paid the tax in recent years. Their CBT number is currently a hair below $207MM, putting them about $30MM shy of the base threshold. They could bring Bellinger back after enjoying his bounceback season in 2023, but they may be loath to block outfield prospects like Pete Crow-Armstrong. Third base is a possible fit for Chapman, as he would be a clear upgrade over Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom. The rotation has a decent front four with Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon, Shota Imanaga and Kyle Hendricks. They could leave the fifth spot open for an audition between Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad, Caleb Kilian and others, but all those guys have options and limited experience. Adding Snell or Montgomery could push them into depth roles to be called upon during the season as injuries arise.
- Should Have Lots Of Room: Angels
The Angels were over the tax line in 2023, but managed to limbo under the line late in the year. As they fell out of contention, they put various players on waivers to give away their contracts and also put Max Stassi on the restricted list as he was away from the club while his son was in NICU after being born three months premature.
Those shenanigans worked in getting the club under the line, but that’s beside the point of this post. The key takeaway for this exercise is that they are willing to get near and even cross the line under the right circumstances. Even though Shohei Ohtani is now gone, general manager Perry Minasian has clearly stated the club still plans to compete this year. To that end, they have bolstered their club by spending on the bullpen, having signed Robert Stephenson, Matt Moore, Luis García and Adam Cimber.
Even with those deals, the club still has a huge amount of space before getting near the $237MM base threshold of the CBT. They are currently just over $187MM, giving them roughly $50MM of space to work with even if they want to stay under the line to start the year. The rotation was a disappointment in 2023 and adding to their current group with someone like Snell or Montgomery would make sense. They current project to have Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Patrick Sandoval, Tyler Anderson and Chase Silseth as their starters. There’s talent in that group but clear room for improvement as well. Silseth still has options and less than 130 innings pitched above the Double-A level, so bumping him to sixth on the depth chart would be defensible.
On the position player side of things, the Halos technically have a third baseman in Anthony Rendon, but he’s about to turn 34 and hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2019. Having two players on huge deals for the same position wouldn’t be the best use of resources, but Chapman could push Rendon into a regular designated hitter role now that Ohtani has vacated that spot. In the outfield, Bellinger could take a corner and occasionally spell Trout in center. Those two, along with Aaron Hicks and Taylor Ward, could plausibly share the three outfield jobs and the DH role, while pushing Mickey Moniak into the fourth outfielder gig.
- Should Have Some Room: Twins, Brewers, Marlins, Royals, Athletics
The Twins have had some payroll issues due to their TV revenue situation but they recently cleared some space with the Jorge Polanco trade. They reportedly want to be in the $125-140MM range and are currently at $118MM. The resurrection of Diamond Sports Group might allow them to keep that relationship going for one more year, so perhaps they could push things to the higher end of that range. They were at $159MM last year but have been planning on a cut due to the TV revenue situation.
The Brewers had a $126MM payroll last year and are just at $117MM right now. They generally aren’t huge free agent spenders but made a notable addition with the recent signing of Rhys Hoskins. The Marlins were at $110MM last year but have been extremely quiet this offseason. New president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hasn’t signed any free agents yet, so the payroll is at just $97MM. The Royals have made a huge jump from last year, going from $91MM to $113MM. General manager J.J. Picollo has suggested the club is fairly content with the current roster, but then they signed Adam Frazier. Perhaps more small moves could be coming since they’ve had the payroll as high as $143MM in the past.
As for the Athletics, they will spend on something. General manager David Forst said he expects a higher payroll than last year. They were at $59MM in 2023 but are only at $40MM for the upcoming season, though Alex Wood will bump that slightly when the details of his deal are revealed. Despite their aggressive rebuild, they spent on guys like Aledmys Díaz, Jace Peterson, Trevor May, Shintaro Fujinami, Jesús Aguilar and Drew Rucinski last winter. With the club departing Oakland after this year and headed for another last-place finish, it won’t be the first choice for many free agents but it could be a fallback plan for some.
- Below Past Levels But Might Not Spend: Orioles, Red Sox, Tigers, Reds, Rockies, White Sox
These clubs are all below their franchise highs in terms of spending, but there are other reasons to suggest a big deal might not be forthcoming in the next few weeks. The Orioles have had payrolls as high as $164MM, but that was back in 2017 when Peter Angelos was still running things. Since then, his son John has taken over as “control person”. The club underwent an aggressive rebuild, which naturally dropped the payroll, but they haven’t changed their spending habits even though the rebuild is over.
The won the American League East last year but still haven’t given a multi-year deal to a free agent since Alex Cobb in 2018. Their most significant signing this winter has been a one-year pact for Craig Kimbrel. This week, it was reported that the club is being sold from the Angelos family to a new investment group, but that still requires league approval. That could change the club’s behavior down the road but it’s unclear if it will have an immediate impact.
The Red Sox, meanwhile, have been dialing back the spending in recent years and don’t seem to be bringing it back. Despite the “full throttle” comments from chairman Tom Werner earlier in the offseason, CEO Sam Kennedy recently admitted that the club will probably have a lower payroll than last year. Broadly speaking, it seems the club is in wait-and-see mode as it evaluates some younger players before deciding on a path forward.
The Tigers and Reds have each been active in upgrading their rosters for the upcoming season, but neither is in record territory. Thanks to mega contracts for Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto expiring, each club has been able to spend on free agents without setting any franchise records. The Tigers had a payroll of $200MM as recently as 2017, but their signings of Kenta Maeda, Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller (plus the acquisition of Mark Canha) have only pushed them to $108MM for this year. The Reds were at $127MM in 2019 but are only at $100MM now, despite signing Jeimer Candelario, Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter. But Detroit’s president of baseball operations Scott Harris has spoken many times about the perils of making bold moves too early, something the club knows too well after their deals for Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez didn’t work out in 2022. As for the Reds, this year’s payroll is already a bump from last year’s $87MM and they don’t have huge holes on the roster.
The Rockies and White Sox are each below their past spending levels but both clubs are coming off disastrous seasons and aren’t well positioned to make a bold strike. There would be plenty of room for short-term veteran additions, however.
Blue Jays Turning Away Trade Interest In Alek Manoah, Expect Him To Be In 2024 Rotation
The Blue Jays have heard from teams looking to buy low on right-hander Alek Manoah following a disastrous 2023 season throughout the winter, but Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Jays have been telling interested parties they expect Manoah to be in the 2024 rotation and do not plan to move him.
By now, the highs and lows of Manoah’s 2022-23 campaigns are well-documented. The right-hander finished third in American League Cy Young voting as recently as 2022, pitching to a pristine 2.24 earned run average while fanning 22.9% of his opponents against a 6.5% walk rate. He made 31 starts, totaled 196 2/3 innings, and was named to his first All-Star team that year. The 2023 season was the polar opposite; Manoah’s velocity, strikeout rate and walk rate all went in the wrong direction. His home run rate doubled. His opponents’ average exit velocity jumped by two miles per hour, while their hard-hit rate spiked from 31.5% to 44.4%.
Manoah was optioned to the minors multiple times throughout the 2023 season — a notion that would’ve been unthinkable entering the year. The right-hander underwent a slate of medical exams after being optioned for the final time, but no major injury was uncovered. He wound up finishing out the season with a grisly 5.87 ERA in just 87 1/3 frames. Manoah’s final big league start came on Aug. 10.
Throughout the offseason, Manoah’s name has popped up in various trade rumors. That’s plenty understandable, as even if the 2023 season represents a clear rock-bottom for the talented righty, he’s only a year removed from being on the opposite end of that spectrum. Manoah also just turned 26 years old in January, and he’s controllable for another four years before he can become a free agent. Even if the Jays (or a trade partner) never get him back to that peak 2022 form, there’s an appealing middle ground where Manoah could be a strong mid-rotation arm at an affordable rate for several years.
For the Blue Jays, the upside of keeping Manoah has clearly outweighed the temptation to pursue a change of scenery. That’s likely due both to belief in the pitcher himself and the offers and names discussed with other clubs in trade talks. Interested parties were undoubtedly trying to acquire Manoah at something of a discounted rate in light of last year’s struggles. The Jays, presumably, retained a lofty asking price given the affordability, remaining club control and ceiling of the pitcher.
Beyond the general difficulty of lining up on asking price in such a volatile buy-low situation, the Jays simply aren’t teeming with rotation depth. Assuming Manoah is in the starting five to begin the season, he’ll join Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi to round out the group.
It’s a solid quintet but one with its own question marks even beyond Manoah. Berrios’ 2022 season was similar to Manoah’s 2023 campaign; in 32 starts he was tagged for an uncharacteristic 5.23 ERA with the highest home-run rate and lowest strikeout rate of his career. He bounced back in ’23 (3.65 ERA in 189 2/3 innings), but his ’22 struggles are surely still in the back of the Jays’ minds. Meanwhile, Kikuchi is something of a wild card. The 32-year-old lefty is clearly a talented arm but has had a roller-coaster MLB tenure. At his best, he’s looked like a borderline top-of-the-rotation arm, but there have been low points where he’s pitched his way out of a rotation spot entirely. Between Manoah, Berrios and Kikuchi, there’s a volatile, broad-reaching range of potential outcomes.
The depth behind that group is also somewhat lacking. Left-hander Ricky Tiedemann is one of the top pitching prospects in the sport but tossed just 44 innings during the 2023 regular season — only four of which came in Triple-A. He tacked on another 18 innings in the Arizona Fall League, but he’s lacking upper-minors experience and will be on an innings cap to some extent in 2024. Righty Yariel Rodriguez, who agreed to a four-year, $32MM deal might be an eventual rotation option for Toronto, but he didn’t pitch in 2023 outside of a brief showing in the World Baseball Classic, and he was primarily a reliever during his most recent run with the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball.
The Jays have a trio of other right-handers on the 40-man roster who could conceivably serve as depth: Mitch White, Bowden Francis and Wes Parsons. But White’s roster spot could be in jeopardy this spring after he posted a 5.50 ERA in Triple-A last season and a 7.11 ERA in 12 2/3 MLB frames. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll need to make the Opening Day club, likely as a long reliever/swingman, or else be designated for assignment. Francis, 28 in April, posted a sparkling 1.73 ERA with Toronto last year but worked exclusively out of the bullpen in the big leagues and made only seven minor league starts. He pitched a total of 66 1/3 innings in ’23. Parsons, 31, joined the Jays on a minor league deal after a two-year run in the KBO and posted a 4.52 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts before being rocked for nine runs in four innings during his lone MLB start.
Given the shaky nature of the team’s depth and the fact that 60 percent of the current MLB rotation has struggled to an ERA north of 5.00 in one of the past two seasons, it’s understandable if the Jays want to retain as much depth as possible. Couple that with what one can imagine have been lackluster offers from teams hoping to secure a bargain acquisition of Manoah, and it becomes all the easier to see why the Jays prefer to hang onto him. Any trade situation is fluid, of course, and it takes all of one phone call or text message with the right player’s name(s) to get earnest trade talks rolling. For now, however, it seems likely to anticipate Manoah will open the season in Toronto and look to reestablish himself as a viable cog in a talented but mercurial rotation.
The Opener: Chisholm, Rodriguez, Padres
With the calendar now flipped to February, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:
1. Jazz, Marlins waiting on arb decision:
The Marlins and center fielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. went to arbitration yesterday after Chisholm requested a salary of $2.9MM for the 2024 season while Miami countered with an offer of $2.625MM. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected Chisholm for a $2.8MM salary back in October. Chisholm, who celebrates his 26th birthday today, is eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career on the heels of a decent platform season in 2023 that saw him slash .250/.304/.457 with 19 homers and 22 stolen bases in 97 games while converting from his previous role as a middle infielder to become a full-time center fielder. After a back injury limited him to 60 games in 2022, he was hampered by foot and oblique injuries in 2023.
Chisholm isn’t the first player to go to arbitration this year, as the first case heard was that of Orioles outfielder Austin Hays, who requested a $6.3MM salary against Baltimore’s $5.85MM offer. But a decision on Chisholm’s case is expected to be handed down as soon as today, while a ruling on Hays could take some time. As noted by the Associated Press, MLB’s arbitration panel isn’t likely to announce a ruling on Hays until other second-time eligible outfielders like Angels outfielder Taylor Ward and Astros utility player Mauricio Dubon have had either settled or gone through their hearings.
2. Rodriguez waiting on visa:
It’s been two weeks now since the Blue Jays and right-hander Yariel Rodriguez came together on a four-year, $32MM deal that would bring Rodriguez to the majors for the first time in his career. The deal still hasn’t been made official, however. As indicated by reporter Francys Romero, Rodriguez has not yet been able to secure a visa that would allow him to enter either Canada or the United States. While he’ll of course eventually need approval from both countries to play in the majors, Romero adds that Rodriguez will undergo a physical in whichever country first issues him a visa.
The 26-year-old didn’t pitch outside of the World Baseball Classic in 2023 as he worked to become eligible for MLB free agency, but he posted a dazzling 1.15 ERA in 56 relief appearances for the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball back in 2022. Assuming the physical goes well, the Jays will need to make a corresponding move to clear space for Rodriguez on their 40-man roster.
3. What’s next for the Padres?
San Diego reportedly landed left-handed relief arm Wandy Peralta on a four-year deal that comes with a trio of opt-outs yesterday. A corresponding move won’t be necessary for the Padres upon the deal becoming official, as the club’s 40-man roster currently stands at just 36. The agreement is the latest of several moves by the club to bolster its bullpen following the departure of closer Josh Hader, who signed with the Astros on a five-year deal last month. In addition to Peralta, San Diego has inked Yuki Matsui and Woo Suk Go to big league free agent deals so far this winter. It’s somewhat surprising to see the Padres continue focusing on relief depth, given their long-discussed budgetary restraints this winter and the number of needs elsewhere on the roster such as the outfield, the starting rotation, and their first base/DH mix. Will San Diego now turn its attention to other areas of the roster over the final two weeks before Spring Training begins?
MLBTR Podcast: The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The trade sending Jorge Polanco from the Twins to the Mariners (1:10)
- The Brewers sign Rhys Hoskins (8:25)
- The Diamondbacks sign Joc Pederson while the Blue Jays sign Justin Turner (12:05)
- The Tigers sign prospect Colt Keith to an extension (20:30)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Is Cody Bellinger unsigned because of his asking price? Will the Cubs sign him or do they not want to block their outfield prospect? (27:35)
- Should the Mariners sign Blake Snell? Will they? Can they? (31:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- The Broadcasting Landscape, Josh Hader and the Relief Market – listen here
- The Cubs’ Activity, Marcus Stroman And Jordan Hicks – listen here
- Teoscar Hernández Signs With L.A. And The Move-Making Mariners and Rays – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Guardians Sign Tyler Zuber To Minor League Deal
The Guardians have signed reliever Tyler Zuber to a minor league contract with an invitation to MLB Spring Training, the team announced. The righty joins the third organization of his professional career.
Zuber’s major league time has come exclusively in the AL Central. He was a sixth-round pick of the Royals in 2017. He made Kansas City’s roster during the shortened 2020 season, appearing in 23 of their 60 games as a rookie. He pitched 31 times the following year, working 27 1/3 innings.
Between the two seasons, he pitched to a 5.29 ERA over 49 1/3 frames. Zuber fanned around a quarter of opposing hitters but didn’t show the kind of control necessary to hold an MLB spot. He walked almost 17% of batters faced. Zuber also allowed home runs at an elevated 1.82 per nine clip.
Zuber has not pitched at the MLB level since that point. He opened the 2022 season on the injured list due to an impingement in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that May and missed the whole year. K.C. waived him at season’s end and he landed with the Diamondbacks when they placed a claim. Arizona ran Zuber through outright waivers themselves a couple weeks later.
The Arkansas State product stuck with the organization into 2023. He pitched in 16 games for Triple-A Reno, turning in a 5.23 ERA across 20 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate dipped to 20% while he handed out free passes at an 11.1% clip. The Snakes released him at the start of July. He spent the rest of the year in free agency but has pitched this winter in the Dominican Republic.
While injuries and command issues have sidetracked him in recent years, Zuber posted solid minor league numbers during his time in the K.C. system. He owns an impressive 3.20 ERA in parts of five minor league seasons despite last year’s middling production in Reno. Before the surgery, he worked primarily with a 94-95 MPH fastball and a mid-80s slider at the MLB level.
Diamond Sports Group Expected To Retain Guardians, Rangers, Twins Broadcasts For 2024
Diamond Sports Group has been renegotiating its in-market deals with the Guardians, Rangers and Twins as part of its ongoing bankruptcy proceeding. Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported this morning that MLB expects all three organizations to sign one-year deals to remain on Diamond’s Bally Sports networks for the 2024 season. None of those contracts have yet been finalized.
The Twins’ TV deal expired at the end of the 2023 season. The Rangers and Guardians still had contracts with Diamond, but the broadcasting conglomerate had called those deals unprofitable and threatened to abandon them if they weren’t renegotiated at a lesser fee. Diamond already dropped contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during the ’23 season.
That left Cleveland, Texas and Minnesota to discuss reduced terms or to risk losing their local broadcasting fees entirely. According to various reports, Cleveland made $55MM off their TV deal a year ago. Texas took in around $111MM from Diamond, while Minnesota’s contract paid $54MM in its final season.
The specific terms under discussion aren’t known. However, Drellich reports that the Guardians and Rangers are expected to lose 15% or less of what they otherwise would have received in 2024. It’s unclear how much of a reduction Minnesota might need to take on their next contract. On the one hand, that’s still an unenviable position for those organizations. A 15% reduction could knock roughly $8.25MM off the Guardians’ expected revenues, while the Rangers’ deal could be reduced by something in the $17MM range by that criteria. (The precise figures are unclear, since the teams’ anticipated rights fees in 2024 were not necessarily the same as what they’d made in ’23).
At the same time, recouping 85+% of their expected fees is still a better outcome for those teams than moving on from Diamond entirely, which likely would have required the teams to turn to MLB to handle in-market broadcasting. That’s particularly true for Texas, which had one of the game’s more profitable RSN agreements. A one-year deal will still leaves the teams with long-term uncertainty, but they appear on track to remain on the Bally Sports networks for at least one more year.
If/when the new deals are finalized, Diamond will again be responsible for in-market televising for 12 teams. The company has already stated it’ll honor next season’s commitments at full price for the Angels, Braves, Brewers, Cardinals, Marlins, Rays, Reds, Royals and Tigers. Whether Diamond will be able to operate beyond the ’24 MLB season remains to be seen. Its recent restructuring agreement to sell its in-market streaming rights to Amazon for an influx of $450MM is designed to keep the company afloat beyond this year. That is still pending approval from the bankruptcy court. Drellich notes that some within the baseball industry remain skeptical about Diamond’s long-term viability even if the court signs off on its streaming deal with Amazon.
A.J. Hinch Discusses Tigers Infield Plans
Tigers manager A.J. Hinch was a guest on the New York Post’s podcast with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman this afternoon. The veteran skipper addressed the team’s infield as part of a wide-ranging conversation.
Detroit heads into Spring Training with some uncertainty at both second and third base. The Tigers didn’t have a set starter at either position last season. No single player even reached 250 plate appearances while manning one of those spots. The Tigers haven’t gone outside the organization for any infield acquisitions aside from corner outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha.
On the heels of last week’s near-$29MM extension, top prospect Colt Keith appears the presumptive starter at the keystone. Asked by Sherman whether Keith could make the Opening Day roster, Hinch replied the 22-year-old will “have to come and earn it.” Hinch called it the organization’s expectation that Keith will perform well enough in Spring Training to break camp but stressed the contract alone won’t guarantee him a season-opening job.
As one would expect, Hinch went on to speak effusively of Keith’s offensive upside. The left-handed hitter is coming off a huge year in the upper minors. Keith opened the year with a .325/.391/.585 showing over 59 games at Double-A Erie. He continued hitting after a late-June promotion to Triple-A Toledo. Keith ran a .287/.369/.521 slash in 67 contests with the Mud Hens. He walked at a strong 11.9% clip while keeping his strikeouts to a modest 19.3% rate. Overall, he connected on 27 homers and 38 doubles with a .306/.380/.552 batting line to cement himself among the sport’s most promising offensive prospects.
Keith’s defensive fit isn’t as clear. He’d been a third baseman for the bulk of his career but has seen increasing large portions of time at second in recent years. Hinch confirmed that Keith would play mostly at the keystone moving forward, although he indicated the young infielder could still see occasional reps at the hot corner.
If Keith indeed grabs hold of the second base job, that could push a handful of Detroit’s multi-positional infielders more frequently to third. Zach McKinstry, Andy Ibáñez and Nick Maton all took reps at both positions a year ago. Matt Vierling made 27 starts at third while opening 94 contests throughout the outfield.
Hinch suggested the Tigers were content to mix and match at third base. In response to an inquiry from Heyman about the possibility of going outside the organization for a clearer upgrade, the manager spoke of the team’s comfort with “optionality for (players) to emerge.” Hinch said the team planned to give playing time to each of Ibáñez, McKinstry and Vierling — in addition to any reps which Keith might pick up — and opined they’ll “be able to piece it together and maybe have a better player than (they would’ve with) one singular guy.”
Specifically, the manager pointed out the possibility for “a natural platoon” between the right-handed hitting Ibáñez and the lefty-swinging McKinstry. Ibáñez, claimed off waivers from the Rangers last offseason, had a quietly effective season after being promoted to the majors at the end of April. He hit .264/.312/.433 over a career-high 383 trips to the plate. He did most of his damage against left-handed pitching, connecting on six homers and nine doubles with a .261/.297/.523 line over 118 plate appearances versus southpaws.
Detroit acquired McKinstry on the eve of Opening Day. While he got out to an excellent start, his production cratered from June onwards. He ended the season with a well below-average .230/.297/.356 slash through 472 plate appearances against right-handers. That’s not enough offense for a strong side platoon player, so he’d need to put together better results if he’s to log that kind of playing time now that Detroit has more serious postseason aspirations.
Vierling, a righty hitter, profiles as both a third base option and a fourth outfielder behind Canha, Parker Meadows and Riley Greene. The former Phillie was a league average player in his first season in Detroit, hitting .261/.329/.388 with 10 homers across 530 plate appearances.
Prospects Justyn-Henry Malloy and Jace Jung have third base experience, but neither is sure to make an impact at the position in 2024. Baseball America’s scouting report on Malloy suggests he’s likelier to play the corner outfield because of throwing accuracy issues on the infield dirt. Jung, the 12th overall pick in 2022, finished last year in Double-A. He could play his way into the mix at some point in the year but will start the season in the upper minors.
Giants Re-Sign Cody Stashak To Minor League Deal
The Giants have re-signed right-hander Cody Stashak to a minor league deal, per Matt Eddy of Baseball America. He had signed a minor league deal with the club in August of last year but will now return to the organization for this year.
Stashak, 30 in June, made his major league debut with the Twins in 2019 and the start of his big league career went well. He threw 25 innings for the Twins that year and another 15 in the shortened 2020 season. He had a 3.15 earned run average after those two campaigns, having paired a strong 26.1% strikeout rate with a tiny 2.5% walk rate.
In 2021, he made 15 appearances with his ERA jumping to 6.89, though bad luck may have played a role in that small sample. His walk rate jumped to 13.3% but he also punched out 34.7% of hitters. A .389 batting average on balls in play and 62% strand rate were both on the unfortunate side of average. He didn’t get a chance for those numbers to regress as a left back disc injury prevented him from making an appearance after the month of May.
He made 11 appearances in 2022, with his ERA falling to 3.86 in those, but then he required season-ending surgery to repair a labrum tear in his throwing shoulder. He was outrighted by the Twins at the end of the year and then joined the Lancaster Barnstormers of the independent Atlantic League, but signed with the Giants after just a couple of appearances. He made five appearances for Triple-A Sacramento late last year, allowing seven earned runs in five innings.
Though the results weren’t ideal in that brief look, the Giants were nonetheless intrigued enough to bring him back. After so much missed time, it’s hard to know what form he will be in, but he has generally had strong strikeout and walk numbers all throughout his career. In 383 minor league contests, he has punched out 25.3% of batters faced while giving out free passes at just a 5.8% clip. If he gets over his recent health woes, he’ll provide the Giants with some non-roster depth. If he gets added to the roster, he still has a couple of options and just over three years of service time.
The club’s bullpen figures to have a core of Camilo Doval, Luke Jackson and the brothers Tyler Rogers and Taylor Rogers. But the remaining spots could be taken by guys with options and limited experience, such as Ryan Walker, Sean Hjelle, Erik Miller or Randy Rodríguez. If Stashak is healthy and throwing well, there could be a path open for him to get back to the majors.
Mets Sign José Rondón To Minor League Deal
The Mets have signed infielder/outfielder José Rondón to a minor league deal, as listed on his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The infielder announced the move on Instagram last week.
Rondón, 30 in March, has 169 games of major league experience, getting part-time action in four different seasons from 2016 to 2021. He bounced around from the Padres to the White Sox, Orioles and Cardinals in that time, making 380 plate appearances. He hit .216/.274/.353 in that time while playing all four infield positions, the outfield corners and even tossing an inning on the mound.
He was non-tendered by the Cardinals after that 2021 campaign and headed into the open market. In April of 2022, it was announced by Major League Baseball that Rondón was one of three players who received an 80-game suspension after testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Boldenone.
He didn’t end up signing with an affiliated club that year, but joined the Toros de Tijuana of the Mexican League for the 2023 season. In 72 games for that club, he slashed .286/.367/.465. He then joined Leones del Caracas of the Venezuelan Professional Baseball League for winter ball, hitting .338/.413/.624 in 56 games for that club.
It appears those solid numbers in Mexico and/or the gaudy numbers in Venezuela attracted the attention of the Mets. It’s possible he’s more of an outfielder now, as that’s where he has been playing for the Leones, while the Toros only gave him brief time on the infield last year.
The Mets are set to have an outfield of Brandon Nimmo, Harrison Bader, Starling Marte and Tyrone Taylor this year, but all of them have dealt with significant injuries, either recently or in their career generally. DJ Stewart is on the roster but he’s considered a poor fielder and best suited for a designated hitter/bench bat role. Jeff McNeil could be in the outfield at some point but is slated to be the everyday second baseman for now.
To improve that depth, the Mets have signed guys like Trayce Thompson and Taylor Kohlwey to minor league deals but will now add Rondón into that mix as well. The Mets also have questions at third base, with Ronny Mauricio potentially missing the upcoming season due to a torn ACL. That leaves them with unproven younger players like Brett Baty and Mark Vientos alongside veteran utility guy Joey Wendle. If Rondón can still play the hot corner, that could be another path for him to get big league playing time if he can continue hitting the way he has been in winter ball.
Nationals, Robert Gsellman Agree To Minor League Contract
The Nationals have agreed to a minor league contract with reliever Robert Gsellman, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). He’ll be paid at a $900K rate for any time spent on the MLB roster.
Gsellman returns to affiliated ball after a year and a half in Japan. The right-hander initially signed with the Yokohama BayStars midway through the 2022 campaign. He turned in a 2.66 ERA in 20 1/3 innings down the stretch to secure a new contract last winter.
His second season in Yokohama wasn’t as successful. He allowed 4.45 earned runs per nine over 64 2/3 frames at the highest level. The BayStars sent him to the minors for a point, where he posted a 4.85 ERA through 52 innings. Throwing strikes was an issue for the 30-year-old hurler. He walked 11.3% of batters faced in his time at the NPB level. He paired that with a middling 14.7% strikeout percentage.
The Southern California native has spent over a decade in the professional ranks. Drafted by the Mets in the 13th round in 2011, he pitched his way towards the top of the New York farm system before his 2016 debut. He spent parts of six seasons in Queens, moving to the bullpen by 2018. Gsellman pitched to a 4.59 ERA over 350 2/3 frames as a Met. New York non-tendered him after the 2021 campaign. He saw limited action with the Cubs in ’22 before signing with the BayStars.
Washington had a well below-average bullpen last season, which isn’t surprising for a rebuilding team. The Nats finished 27th with a 5.02 ERA from their relief corps. Kyle Finnegan, Jordan Weems, Dylan Floro, Hunter Harvey and Tanner Rainey are strong bets to hold Opening Day jobs. That could leave two or three middle relief spots up for grabs, although they’re likely carry at least one left-hander in the group.