Mariners Asked About Max Kepler In Trade Talks With Twins
The Mariners and Twins recently got together on a trade that sent infielder Jorge Polanco to Seattle, with a four-player package heading the other way. Today, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports that the M’s asked about a larger deal that would have also involved outfielder Max Kepler, though that particular line of discussion wasn’t fruitful.
Though the talks didn’t yield results, it seems to suggest that the Mariners still have some appetite for another move to further change their outfield mix. Since last year, they have lost Teoscar Hernández and Jarred Kelenic, the former reaching free agency and signing with the Dodgers while the latter was traded to Atlanta. The M’s replaced those two by acquiring old friend Mitch Haniger from the Giants as well as Luke Raley from the Rays. On paper, those two would slot into the regular outfield alongside Julio Rodríguez.
There would be some logic to adding to that group. Due to some injuries and the shortened 2020 season, Haniger has only played more than 63 games in a season on three occasions. The past two years have each seen him finish with around 60 games played, missing time due to a right high ankle sprain, a left oblique strain, a right forearm fracture and a low back strain. He’s generally been able to post good results even when battling injuries but 2023 was a struggle. He hit .209/.266/.365 for a wRC+ of 73, his first season of subpar offensive production since his 2016 debut.
Giving Haniger plenty of time in the designated hitter slot would be a logical plan in a vacuum but likely isn’t feasible for the M’s with the current roster construction. They signed catcher Mitch Garver to a two-year, $24MM deal last month, but he figures to DH on an everyday basis or something close to it, with Cal Raleigh behind the plate most days. An injury could always change things but Haniger is currently projected for a regular role in the outfield.
As for Raley, his 2023 was strong overall but ended on a down note. He hit .268/.357/.533 through the end of July while striking out in 29.8% of his plate appearances. From the start of August until the end of the season, his line was just .200/.270/.380 with a 36% strikeout rate. The combined work for the year was still well above average, 130 wRC+, but the overall track record is limited. He’ll turn 30 years old next year and has played one good MLB season, which still came with concerning elements.
The Mariners also have a batch of depth outfielders in the mix, including Taylor Trammell, Cade Marlowe, Dominic Canzone, Zach DeLoach and Jonatan Clase, but their interest in Kepler suggests they would consider another addition under the right circumstances. The free agent market still has Cody Bellinger, though it’s hard to envision the M’s giving out a mega deal to a player like that since they have had notable budget limitations this offseason. More plausible options would include Michael A. Taylor, Adam Duvall, Tommy Pham or Eddie Rosario. The trade market could feature guys like Alec Burleson, Randy Arozarena or Seth Brown.
Seattle’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has suggested that the 2024 club will have a higher payroll than last year’s $140MM figure, but uncertainty around the broadcast revenue situation might limit them to a modest increase. Roster Resource currently has them at $135MM, meaning Kepler’s $10MM salary would have pushed them to $145MM.
For the Twins, perhaps they weren’t as open to dealing Kepler as they were with Polanco. While the latter was getting squeezed out of a crowded infield picture, Kepler could still play an important role with the 2024 club. He had a bounceback season at the plate last year, hitting 24 home runs and slashing .260/.332/.484 for a wRC+ of 124. He also provided above-average defense in right field, as he has done for many years.
He figures to continue in that role in 2024, with Byron Buxton hopefully playing center field again. Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach could be lined up next to Kepler and Buxton, with players like Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin and Bubba Thompson perhaps in the mix as well.
Kepler has been a speculative trade candidate due to the fact that the Twins are looking to cut payroll, while he’s making $10MM and an impending free agent. But after the Polanco deal, the club is down to about $118MM in spending commitments, according to Roster Resource. They are reportedly looking to get into the $125MM-140MM range so don’t really need to shed any more money unless they pivot to some kind of blockbuster signing, which perhaps will keep Kepler in Minnesota for the upcoming campaign.
Health Issue Led To Change In James Paxton’s Deal With Dodgers
The Dodgers signed left-hander James Paxton to a one-year deal this week, though the financial details of the contract changed from the initial reporting. Per a report today from Fabian Ardaya and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, an unknown health issue led to a lesser guarantee, though it wasn’t serious enough to scuttle the deal completely.
As details of the agreement were initially trickling out last week, it was reported as an $11MM guarantee for the lefty. But Rosenthal reported this morning that the guarantee was actually just $7MM. It appears some sort of health concern popped up, which was enough to knock $4MM off the guarantee but not so serious as to cause the Dodgers to walk away. Paxton can still earn a total of $13MM via bonuses* as long as he makes the Opening Day roster and eventually makes at least 18 starts. Neither the club nor Paxton’s agent Scott Boras provided details for the report from The Athletic, citing HIPAA.
Health or the lack thereof has frequently been an issue for Paxton throughout his career. Now 35 and about to enter his 11th major league season, he has never reached 30 starts or 161 innings pitched in a big league campaign. He hardly pitched at all in the 2020-2022 period, with a left flexor strain keeping him to just five starts in the shortened 2020 season. Then Tommy John surgery wiped out most of the next two years, with a torn lat preventing him from returning late in 2022.
Last year saw some encouraging progress from those significant injury issues but it wasn’t totally smooth sailing. A hamstring strain in the spring pushed his season debut until May. He was able to stay healthy from there until September, finishing the season on the injured list due to right knee inflammation. His 19 starts and 96 innings pitched were more than he logged in the previous three years combined, but he also seemed to run out of gas. He had a 2.73 ERA through his first 10 starts but then a 6.98 mark in the final nine.
It seems he’s still not 100% but the Dodgers will take a shot on him regardless. He has a 3.69 ERA in his career, pairing a 26.3% strikeout rate with a 7.5% walk rate. The club is generally unafraid to bank on talented players even if they have injury concerns, having signed guys like Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson, Jimmy Nelson, J.P. Feyereisen and Alex Reyes in recent years.
They are now set to go into 2024 with a rotation featuring plenty of talent but also a decent amount of uncertainty. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has loads of success in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but has no MLB track record yet. Walker Buehler missed all of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tyler Glasnow has never topped 120 innings in a major league season due to his own injury history. Bobby Miller was good last year but still doesn’t have a full year of big league experience. Options like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are similarly unproven. Paxton would have already come with concerns just based on his track record but those will only be enhanced now that he’s known to be dealing with some kind of ailment.
It’s also possible that the club could re-sign Clayton Kershaw, as it has in each of the past two offseasons. But he is also a question mark, having undergone shoulder surgery in November that will keep him out of action until midseason.
* Paxton can get a $2MM bonus either for being on the roster for the Dodgers’ season opener in South Korea against the Padres on March 20 or their domestic opener against the Cardinals on March 28. Otherwise, he can earn a $1MM bonus if added to the roster before April 15. Paxton will also earn a $600K bonus for making his sixth, eighth, tenth, 12th and 16th starts of the season, plus a $1MM bonus for reaching 18 starts. With $4MM in bonuses based on starts and the $2MM early-season roster bonus, he could add $6MM to his $7MM guarantee, bringing his total earnings for the year to $13MM.
Orioles Confirm Agreement To Sell Control Stake Of Franchise To Group Led By David Rubenstein
The Orioles have confirmed yesterday’s reports on a sale of the team, announcing Wednesday that a group of investors led by billionaire David Rubenstein of the Carlyle Group private equity firm has purchased the control stake of the team from the Angelos family for $1.725 billion. Notably, former control person John Angelos will remain a “major investor” in the club and will serve as a senior advisor to Rubenstein in his new role. The transaction values the Orioles franchise and assets at $1.725 billion dollars, per the team’s press release on the ownership shakeup.
“I am grateful to the Angelos family for the opportunity to join the team I have been a fan of my entire life,” Rubenstein said in a statement within today’s press release. “I look forward to working with all the Orioles owners, players and staff to build upon the incredible success the team has achieved in recent seasons. Our collective goal will be to bring a World Series Trophy back to the City of Baltimore. To the fans I say: we do it for you and can’t do it without you. Thank you for your support. Importantly, the impact of the Orioles extends far beyond the baseball diamond. The opportunity for the team to catalyze development around Camden Yards and in downtown Baltimore will provide generations of fans with lifelong memories and create additional economic opportunities for our community.”
The sale of the majority share in the Orioles is still subject to review and approval from the remaining 29 owners in Major League Baseball. A formal vote is expected to take place next week at the quarterly MLB owners meetings. Among the more recognizable names in the Rubenstein-led group are Orioles icon Cal Ripken Jr., NBA Hall of Famer Grant Hill and Michael Bloomberg. Any concerns about a potential relocation following the sale should quelled; Rubenstein is a Baltimore native who’s already voiced his desire to keep the team in Baltimore long-term, and the recent 30-year lease extension at Camden Yards transfers to new ownership as well, per Danielle Allentuck of the Baltimore Banner.
“When I took on the role of Chair and CEO of the Orioles, we had the objective of restoring the franchise to elite status in major league sports, keeping the team in Baltimore for years to come, and revitalizing our partnership group,” Angelos said in his own statement. “This relationship with David Rubenstein and his partners validates that we have not only met but exceeded our goals.”
The Angelos family has owned the Orioles franchise since Peter purchased the team for $173MM. He served as the club’s control person into his 90s but eventually ceded that post to his sons, John and Louis. In the years that followed, a contentious battle for control of the organization emerged. Louis Angelos filed a lawsuit alleging that John took steps to seize sole control of the club against his father’s wishes and that his mother, Georgia, was making it a priority to sell and possibly even relocate the team. Georgia countersued, alleging that Louis had fabricated his claims in something of a powerplay of his own. The suits were dropped in 2023, nearly one year ago to the day, with the parties settling outside of court.
Between the infighting among the Angelos family and the long-running television rights fees drama with the Nationals, the Orioles have been embroiled in litigation for years. The Angelos family owned the majority stake in the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, which broadcasts both Orioles and Nationals games, and the two franchises have been at odds for more than a decade over unpaid rights fees to the Nationals. An arbitration panel eventually ruled that the O’s owed the Nats $105MM in fees, which the Orioles appealed. An appellate court upheld the ruling last April. Now, Jeff Barker of the Baltimore Sun reports that Rubenstein’s group is also purchasing the control stake in MASN. Whether that will have significant ramifications regarding the arrangement between the Orioles and Nationals remain unclear.
As with any ownership change, the possibility for a major departure from baseball operations norms exists under new ownership. Since John Angelos was named control person in place of his ailing father, Peter, the Orioles have essentially sat out the free-agent market entirely. General manager Mike Elias has never signed a free agent to a guaranteed multi-year deal and hasn’t committed more than Craig Kimbrel‘s $13MM to any individual player. That’s been in part due to the fact that the Orioles have been mired in a rebuilding process that spanned more than four years, but even on the heels of last year’s AL East title, they’ve been surprisingly quiet (much to the chagrin of Baltimore fans).
That rebuilding effort, of course, led the Orioles to develop one of the more enviable young cores in all of baseball. Catcher Adley Rutschman has already emerged as a superstar, and young infielder Gunnar Henderson isn’t far behind. Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez and top prospects like Jackson Holliday, Jordan Westburg, Joey Ortiz, Connor Norby, Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser, Samuel Basallo and many more create a favorable long-term outlook.
However, even as Orioles fans celebrated the emergence of their young core after so many noncompetitive years, Angelos put a damper on matters by casting doubt on the organization’s ability to sign anyone from that bunch to long-term deals. The now-outgoing Orioles control person told the New York Times in 2022 that in order to sign players like Rutschman and Henderson to the type of extensions they could rightly seek based on market precedent, the Orioles would need to “massively” raise prices for fans. Comments like that, paired with the general inertia that has embodied previous Orioles offseasons has led to frustration among the fan base.
Whether a change in ownership will bring about aggressive levels of spending remains to be seen. It’d be unwise to expect the Orioles to act with the same level of brazen aggression as, say, the Mets in the wake of the Wilpon family’s sale to current owner Steve Cohen. At the same time, the current levels of spending is practically the lowest of bars to be cleared. The Orioles ended the 2023 season with a $66MM payroll and project to open the 2024 season with just an $81MM payroll. Felix Bautista, the Orioles’ All-Star closer who is recovering from Tommy John surgery, is the only player who’s guaranteed even a single dollar in salary beyond the 2024 campaign. He’s promised all of $1MM for the 2025 campaign.
Time will tell the extent to which the Orioles’ recent market inactivity was colored by ongoing efforts to orchestrate this sale and whether Rubenstein’s group will be more willing to spend than the team has been under the watch of John Angelos. For the time being, the pending sale looms as a beacon of hope for an Orioles fan base that has become increasingly frustrated with the team’s ostensible unwillingness to supplement one of the brightest young cores of talent in the sport.
Joe Smith Announces Retirement
Veteran reliever Joe Smith announced his retirement on Wednesday, calling it a career after spending parts of 15 seasons in the Major Leagues. Via his representatives at Excel Sports Management, Smith issued a lengthy statement thanking the Mets, Guardians, Angels, Cubs, Blue Jays, Astros, Mariners and Twins organizations in addition to his coaches, teammates, trainers and family for supporting him throughout his career.
Selected by the Mets in the third round of the 2006 draft, the now-39-year-old Smith was in the majors less than one year later and practically never looked back. That’s in large part thanks to the fact that Smith established himself as a quality big league reliever right out of the gate, pitching 44 1/3 innings of 3.45 ERA ball with a 22% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate as a rookie.
That set off a remarkable run of 13 straight seasons with an ERA of 3.83 or better for Smith — including five years with a sub-3.00 mark and two with a sub-2.00. While the sidearming Smith was rarely thrust into the ninth-inning spotlight (30 career saves), he’s one of the most consistent and prolific setup men in the game’s history. Since holds began being tracked, Smith’s 228 rank him in the top five all-time. His blend of durability and consistently strong performance kept him in leverage spots for more than a decade.
Smith wasn’t on the 2016 Cubs’ World Series roster after missing most of the final month of the season due to injury, but he did take home a ring that year and pitched in parts of five other postseasons (including in 2019, when he pitched in the World Series as the Astros finished runner-up to the Nationals). As was the case during his regular-season performances, he remained quite strong in October. In 14 career playoff innings, Smith yielded only four earned runs on eight hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts (2.57 ERA).
All told, Smith will walk away from the game with 762 1/3 innings of 3.14 ERA ball under his belt. In his career, he pitched for eight MLB clubs, notching a 55-34 record with 30 saves, 228 holds, a 21.1% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. Smith didn’t post an ERA over 4.00 until his age-37 season in 2021, and in 15 MLB seasons he never had a single year where he ERA climbed to 5.00 or higher. He picked up more than 13 years of Major League service time and earned more than $51MM in salary over the course of a quietly excellent career. Best wishes to Smith and his family in whatever lies in store for his post-playing days.
Astros Acquire Trey Cabbage From Angels
The Angels announced that they have traded infielder/outfielder Trey Cabbage, who was recently designated for assignment, to the Astros. In exchange, the Angels will receive minor league right-hander Carlos Espinosa. The Astros designated right-hander Declan Cronin for assignment to open a roster spot for Cabbage, per Ari Alexander of KPRC 2.
Cabbage, 27 in May, made his major league debut with the Angels last year, making 56 plate appearances in 22 games. He hit just .208/.232/.321 in that time, pairing a 3.6% walk rate with a 46.4% strikeout rate.
But his minor league results have naturally been much better. In 107 Triple-A games, he hit 30 home runs last year. His 30% strikeout rate was still on the high side but his 9.5% walk rate was strong. Even in the hitter-friendly environs of the Pacific Coast League, his .306/.379/.596 batting line still led to a wRC+ of 128. On top of that, he stole 32 bases in 35 attempts while lining up at first base and all three outfield spots.
“If we could somehow get a left-handed bat, preferably an outfielder with some speed, that type of package we’ll pounce on it.” Those were the words of Astros general manager Dana Brown last week, after the club signed Josh Hader. Cabbage doesn’t have any major league success yet but he ticks those boxes for Houston, as he does indeed hit from the left side.
The Astros have lefties Yordan Álvarez and Kyle Tucker set for regular action, but the rest of their lineup skews right-handed. That includes outfielders Chas McCormick and Jake Meyers, as well as depth option Corey Julks and utility player Mauricio Dubón. If Cabbage can have his major league offense make progress towards what he’s done in the minors, he could be a nice complement to the club’s current roster. He still has two options and doesn’t need to be on the active roster right away.
In order to add Cabbage to the organization, the Astros have removed Cronin from their 40-man. The 26-year-old was just claimed off waivers from the White Sox a few weeks ago. Similar to Cabbage, he just made his major league debut in 2023 with uninspiring results. He tossed 11 innings for the Sox, allowing 11 earned runs in that time.
But also like Cabbage, his work in the minors was more impressive. He tossed 51 2/3 Triple-A innings last year, allowing 3.83 earned runs per nine. His 18.7% strikeout rate was subpar but his 54.5% ground ball rate was very strong. That’s been a hallmark of his career, as he’s kept more than half of balls in play on the ground at every level of the minor leagues and in that brief major league debut as well.
The Astros will now have a week to trade Cronin or pass him through waivers. He still has a full slate of options and limited service time, which could help him appeal to a club in search of some bullpen depth and roster flexibility.
As for the Angels, they nudged Cabbage off their roster a few days ago when they signed Matt Moore, but they were able to salvage some value from him by sending him across the division in exchange for Espinosa. The 22-year-old Cuban has limited experience in affiliated ball, having only played in the Complex League and Single-A. He has thrown 84 1/3 innings at those levels with a 3.74 ERA, 27% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate.
Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin of FanGraphs gave Espinosa a brief mention on last year’s list of Houston’s top prospects. They noted that the righty was throwing in the mid-90s, while also featuring a slider and a changeup.
Red Sox Claim Romy Gonzalez, Designate Zack Weiss
The Red Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve claimed infielder/outfielder Romy Gonzalez off waivers from the White Sox. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Boston designated right-hander Zack Weiss for assignment. Chicago had designated Gonzalez for assignment last week in order to clear space for free agent signee John Brebbia.
In parts of three seasons with the White Sox, Gonzalez is a .222/.239/.361 hitter with five homers and seven steals in 239 plate appearances. Gonzalez’s approach at the plate has been a major issue, however. He’s walked in just 2.1% of his plate appearances against a jarring 36% strikeout rate. On pitches within the strike zone, Gonzalez’s 83.3% contact rate is just slightly under league average. However, his 50.2% contact rate on pitches off the plate is tied for 543 among the 593 hitters who’ve taken at least 200 plate appearances over the past three seasons. That lack of contact on pitches off the plate is exacerbated by the fact that only 39 hitters in that same group of 593 have chased off the plate more frequently than Gonzalez (41.5%).
Big league troubles notwithstanding, Gonzalez has been a reasonably productive hitter in the upper minors. He batted .267/.355/.502 in his lone season at the Double-A level and is a .251/.332/.451 hitter in parts of two Triple-A seasons. When he has made contact in the big leagues, it’s also typically been loud. Gonzalez has averaged 90.4 mph off the bat and put 45% of his batted balls in play at 95 mph or greater.
Defensively, Gonzalez is capable of playing all over the diamond but has spent the bulk of his time at shortstop (847 innings), at second base (616) and in left field (579). He has a pair of minor league option years remaining, too, making him a flexible bench option for the Red Sox for the foreseeable future, however long they choose to continue carrying him on the 40-man roster.
Boston claimed the 31-year-old Weiss off waivers from the Angels back in late August. He spent the remainder of the 2023 campaign in manager Alex Cora’s bullpen, pitching 8 2/3 innings and holding opponents to a pair of runs on three hits and four walks with eight punchouts. Weiss has appeared in parts of three MLB seasons dating back to his 2018 debut and carries a 4.61 earned run average with an impressive 28% strikeout rate but an ugly 12.7% walk rate in 27 1/3 MLB frames.
Those K/BB numbers are near-mirror images of the rates he’s posted in Triple-A (28.2% strikeout rate, 12.6% walk rate). Weiss averages 94.3 mph on his heater and generates tons of whiffs on his slider, which he threw at a 70% clip in his limited MLB action this past season. His overall 13.9% swinging-strike rate and 33% opponents’ chase rate in his three big league cups of coffee are both intriguing, but those traits are undercut by his lackluster command.
The Red Sox will have a week to trade Weiss, attempt to pass him through outright waivers, or release him.
Pirates Designate Canaan Smith-Njigba For Assignment
The Pirates announced Wednesday that they’ve designated outfielder Canaan Smith-Njigba for assignment. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to newly signed reliever Aroldis Chapman, whose previously reported one-year $10.5MM deal is now official.
One of four players the Pirates acquired in the trade sending Jameson Taillon to the Yankees, Smith-Njigba made the team’s Opening Day roster and started in right field this past season, but he’s yet to find much success in a tiny sample of playing time. Through 44 MLB plate appearances, he’s a .135/.250/.243 hitter.
Things have gone much better for the former fourth-round pick in Triple-A. Smith-Njigba has spent parts of three seasons at the minor leagues’ top level, posting a combined .273/.366/.439 output there. That includes this past season in Indianapolis, when he turned in a quality .280/.366/.473 showing (110 wRC+) with 15 home runs, 28 doubles, a triple and 21 steals (in 26 tries) in 445 trips to the plate. Smith-Njigba walked in a hearty 11.9% of his plate appearances but also struck out far too often (26.5%).
As a prospect, Smith-Njigba drew praise for above-average to plus raw power and average speed. He comes from an extremely athletic family — his brother, Jaxon, is a wide receiver for the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks — and was seen as a potential bat-first left fielder. The raw power hasn’t yet carried over into game settings with much regularity, however. Smith-Njigba’s 15 homers this past season were a career-high and marked just the second time he’s reached double-digit homers in a season since being drafted back in 2017.
Smith-Njigba does have a minor league option remaining, so a team looking for some left-handed corner outfield depth could place a claim if he’s placed on waivers or try to work out a small trade before things reach that point. He’s consistently shown plus plate discipline, evidenced by a gaudy 14.4% walk rate in the minors, and has posted above-average numbers at every minor league stop from A-ball onward. The Pirates will have a week to trade him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.
Pirates, Wily Peralta Agree To Minor League Deal
The Pirates have agreed to a minor league contract with veteran right-hander Wily Peralta, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee with the Bucs this spring.
Peralta, 34, enjoyed a nice two-year run with the Tigers in 2021-22 — his most recent experience at the major league level. In that time, he pitched 132 innings, split between the rotation and bullpen, and worked to a 2.93 ERA but more concerning rate stats. During his time as a Tiger, Peralta posted a well below-average 15.8% strikeout rate while walking 10.9% of his opponents. He kept the ball on the ground at a strong 49.2% clip, but his shaky K/BB profile limited him to a minor league deal with the Nationals in free agency last winter.
Things didn’t go well for Peralta in the Nats organization. The longtime Brewers righty opened the season with Washington’s Triple-A affiliate in Rochester and wound up starting 24 games for the Red Wings. His command troubles persisted (12% walk rate, 21.7% strikeout rate), and Peralta was tagged for a grisly 6.31 ERA in 102 2/3 innings.
Peralta broke into the big leagues with the Brewers back in 2012 and was a fixture in the Milwaukee rotation from 2013-16. Through his first 113 games (112 starts), the righty posted a 4.18 ERA in 647 1/3 frames with below-average strikeout rates but solid command and a strong 52% ground-ball rate. That nice start to his career was quite some time ago, however, and Peralta has had success in the 2018, 2021 and 2022 seasons, he’s logged a 4.53 ERA with an 11.7% walk rate in his past 264 MLB frames. As recently as 2022, he was still sitting at 95.5 mph with both his four-seamer and sinker — but that was in a relief role. Peralta averaged 95.8 mph as a starter earlier in his career but sat 94.1 mph out of the Tigers’ rotation in 2022.
The Pirates won’t be banking on much from Peralta, but he’ll head to camp in hopes of winning a roster spot — be it at the back of the Pittsburgh rotation or perhaps as a long reliever in the bullpen. The Pirates currently have Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales locked into rotation spots, but the final two spots are mostly up for grabs after righty Johan Oviedo underwent Tommy John surgery earlier in the offseason. Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter, Quinn Priester and Roansy Contreras are among the in-house options, though further additions shouldn’t be ruled out. Top prospect and 2023 No. 1 overall draft pick Paul Skenes figures to make his MLB debut sometime next summer as well.
Twins Rumors: Solano, Duvall, Lorenzen
The Twins finally made their first significant move of the offseason this week, shipping out stalwart infielder Jorge Polanco in a trade that netted big league righties Justin Topa and Anthony DeSclafani as well as prospects Gabriel Gonzalez and Darren Bowen from the Mariners. The Twins picked up a net savings of $5.25MM in the trade as well, which president of baseball operations Derek Falvey has already suggested will go toward adding a bat from outside the organization. One possibility the Twins may be considering, per the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, is a reunion with veteran utilityman Donovan Solano.
It’s unlikely that the 36-year-old Solano would command the entirety of that savings, let alone any resources beyond that point. He played the 2023 season on a one-year, $2MM deal he signed with the Twins after spring training had already begun. Solano didn’t necessarily post eye-popping numbers but was a quietly important piece of the Twins’ AL Central title, turning in a strong .282/.369/.391 batting line with a career-high 8.9% walk rate against a 22.2% strikeout rate (just south of league average but also a career-high mark). That batting line was 16% better than average, by measure of wRC+, and Solano paired it with his typical defensive versatility, logging time at first base, second base and third base.
Bringing back Solano would deepen the team’s bench mix and once again provide a right-handed-hitting complement to lefty-swinging first baseman Alex Kirilloff. However, it’s also debatable whether the need is as pressing this time around as when Minnesota last signed Solano. Royce Lewis has emerged as the team’s everyday third baseman, with Carlos Correa at shortstop. The Polanco trade cleared the way for 2023 rookie standout Edouard Julien to step into an everyday role at second base. Kirilloff is likely to man first base, and the Twins have another right-handed-hitting option, Jose Miranda, as a righty option to pair with Kirilloff.
The 2023 season was an injury ruined disaster for Miranda, as he struggled in both the majors and Triple-A before eventually undergoing shoulder surgery. But in 2022, the former top-100 prospect debuted with a strong .268/.325/.426 slash and 15 homers — including a particularly stout .289/.348/.454 showing following a dismal three-week stretch to begin his career. If Miranda is back to full strength, he can certainly be that right-handed partner for Kirilloff at first base. And, the Twins also have former top-10 picks Brooks Lee and Austin Martin on the cusp of the majors, each adding to the infield depth.
To that end, Heyman notes that Minnesota is also exploring the market for outfield help. Presumably, the target would be a right-handed bat, as corner options Matt Wallner, Max Kepler and Trevor Larnach all bat left-handed. Byron Buxton expects to be back in center field this season after spending last year as a DH following knee surgery but is, as always, a major injury question mark. The Twins have utilitymen Willi Castro and Nick Gordon as center field alternatives, and the aforementioned Martin is also no stranger to the position. But a righty bat who can handle center field still seems like a prudent addition, whether that be a reunion with Michael A. Taylor or perhaps a different free agent like Adam Duvall or Randal Grichuk.
Dan Hayes of The Athletic reports that the Twins have indeed considered Duvall, specifically. The 35-year-old, righty-swinging slugger is capable of playing all three outfield spots but is best suited for corner work at this stage of his career. Duvall ripped 21 homers in just 92 games for the Red Sox last year while slashing .247/.303/.531 overall.
Contact and plate discipline issues have long plagued Duvall. He fanned in 31.2% of his plate appearances last year against just a 6.2% walk rate; in his career, he sports marks of 28.7% and 6.7% in those respective categories. The Twins had MLB’s highest strikeout rate last year, and while they’re subtracting Joey Gallo (42.8%) and potentially the previously mentioned Taylor as well (33.5%), they’ll also surely give more at-bats to young strikeout-prone players like Julien (31.4%) and Wallner (31.5%) in 2024. Adding another strikeout rate of 30% or more could be problematic, but they’re surely weighing that against the benefits Duvall could bring to the roster.
In the rotation, the Twins’ addition of DeSclafani has addressed some of the depth issues, though the veteran right-hander isn’t going to be mistaken as a direct replacement for outgoing Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, who signed a three-year, $75MM deal with the Cardinals. The Twins, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, were showing interest in free-agent righty Michael Lorenzen before adding DeSclafani in the Polanco swap.
The addition of DeSclafani could well push young right-hander Louie Varland to the bullpen or the Triple-A St. Paul Saints’ rotation, but it’s not entirely clear yet whether it precludes the addition of someone like Lorenzen (a former teammate of DeSclafani’s in Cincinnati). Lorenzen made his first All-Star team in 2023 after a strong start to the season, and after being traded to Philadelphia at the deadline, tossed a no-hitter in his second start as a Phillie.
Things derailed quickly thereafter, however, as Lorenzen — a reliever-turned-starter — looked to fade down the stretch while navigating the tail end of a career-high 153-inning workload. He pitched to an 8.01 ERA in 30 innings following that no-hit gem, eventually being dropped from the Philly rotation to the bullpen. On the whole, Lorenzen finished with a 4.18 ERA, 17.8% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate.
Minnesota’s payroll currently projects around $118MM, which is about $37MM shy of last year’s $155MM mark. Earlier reports in the winter suggested a target in the $125-140MM range, so there ought to be room to add someone of Lorenzen’s caliber or a similar starter in free agency, particularly since they’re only on the hook for $4MM of DeSclafani’s salary. Further addressing the rotation isn’t a foregone conclusion, but it remains something for the Twins to consider as the clock to spring training ticks.
Blue Jays Sign Justin Turner
Jan. 31: Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports the breakdown of Turner’s incentive package. He’ll unlock $125K bonuses for reaching 500, 525, 550 and 575 plate appearances, plus another $250K for reaching each of 600, 625 and 650 plate appearances. Turner also secures a $150K bonus for reaching 120 days on the active roster and another $100K for spending 150 days on the active roster.
Jan. 30: The Blue Jays will have a new designated hitter for the 2024 season, announcing they’ve signed free agent Justin Turner to a one-year contract. It is reportedly a $13MM deal with The Vayner Sports client, who can earn an additional $1.5MM based on both roster bonuses and performance incentives, taking his deal to a maximum of $14.5MM.
Turner turned 39 years old in November but certainly wasn’t showing any signs of his age in 2023, when he slashed .276/.345/.455 with 23 home runs, 31 doubles, an 8.1% walk rate and a 17.6% strikeout rate in 146 games and 626 plate appearances with the Red Sox.
By measure of wRC+, Turner was about 14% better than league-average at the plate — his incredible tenth consecutive season being at least 14% above par with the bat. He was one of the top remaining corner infield and designated hitter options and will install a “professional hitter” into the Toronto lineup — one who is generally revered for his leadership and clubhouse presence as well.
The consistency Turner brings to the plate is rather remarkable. He hasn’t batted lower than .275, posted an OBP under .339, slugged less than .438 or struck out in more than 18% of his plate appearances in any of the past ten seasons since establishing himself as a regular with the Dodgers in 2014. Overall, he’s a .293/.371/.486 hitter in that time. He’s averaged 24 home runs and 35 doubles per 162 games played over that decade-long span.
Turner’s contract with the Red Sox was a two-year, $22.7MM contract, the second season of which was a player option. He took home an $8.3MM salary in 2023 and also received a $6.7MM buyout on the option when he turned it down to return to the open market. Turner is guaranteed less on this new contract than he was a year ago, although with incentives he’ll be able to nearly match the $15MM he ultimately received for his lone year in Boston. And, given that the player option was a net $7.7MM call for him, he still clearly came out ahead in his decision to decline his player option.
With the Jays, Turner figures to serve as their primary designated hitter but can also split time at the hot corner with fellow free agent signee Isiah Kiner-Falefa (or another yet-to-be-made acquisition). He’s also logged 527 career innings at first base, including 289 last year in Boston, making him a viable option to spell Vladimir Guerrero Jr. when he needs a breather as well.
If there’s one drawback to the match between the two parties, from the team’s vantage point, it’s that Turner adds another right-handed bat to a lineup that already skews heavily toward that side of the plate. He’s effectively replacing the left-handed-hitting Brandon Belt, who notably remains unsigned and had a strong year at the plate for the Jays in 2023 in a heavily platooned role.
As it stands, left fielder Daulton Varsho, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and infielder Cavan Biggio are the only lefties projected in the Toronto lineup. No one from that group is an especially formidable lefty presence, and all are best served in a platoon arrangement. Turner has slightly better career numbers against righties than lefties, which helps to mitigate some of the concern, but the Jays could still struggle against premium right-handed pitchers at times, given their lack of balance in the lineup.
Thus far, Turner marks the biggest upgrade to the Toronto lineup of the offseason. The Jays made a spirited run at Shohei Ohtani and also met with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but both players wound up signing with the Dodgers. The Jays were also said to have strong interest in lefty-swinging Joc Pederson before he inked a comparable deal to Turner’s with the D-backs.
The Jays have been tied to a number of bat-first players over the past month, talking to representatives for free agent sluggers like J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler, Rhys Hoskins and Pederson. Their interest to Turner dates back to at least mid-December, and now that it’s manifested in a deal, the Jays are presumably out of the running for yet-unsigned DH options like Martinez and Soler. Turner joins Kiner-Falefa, Kiermaier and now-former NPB righty-hander Yariel Rodriguez as notable free agent pickups for the Jays so far in the 2023-24 offseason.
The addition of Turner should push the Blue Jays firmly into luxury tax territory. Toronto had a bottom-line payroll of $228MM before agreeing to terms with Turner, per Roster Resource, and the Jays were already slightly north of $237MM luxury barrier. Turner will move both numbers forward by $13MM. Since the Jays are a second-time payor of the tax, their penalty will be rather light: a simple 30% tax on the first $20MM by which they exceed the threshold and another 42% tax for the next $20MM, if further additions are forthcoming.
With regard to the Turner signing, they’ll end up paying $3.9MM in luxury penalties, which clearly wasn’t a significant deterrent for them. The $240MM Opening Day payroll for which the Jays are now projected stands as a franchise-record by a magnitude of $30MM — topping last the $210MM high-water mark previously established just last year.
Looking ahead, it still seems possible there are further moves to be made for the Jays, who currently project to divide playing time at second base and third base among Biggio, Kiner-Falefa, Davis Schneider and Santiago Espinal. Schneider, in particular, had an intriguing 2023 debut when he hit .276/.404/.603 — but that was a tiny sample of 141 plate appearances and came with a .369 BABIP in addition to a 30.5% strikeout rate. Some regression should surely be expected. Kiner-Falefa is best known for his defensive versatility and is a better utility option than everyday player. Biggio had a solid 2023 showing at the dish but has never come close to replicating his 2019-20 numbers. Espinal is coming off a career-worst .248/.310/.335 performance.
In the rotation, Toronto is still facing some uncertainty at the back end of the group. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and a resurgent Jose Berrios form a strong top three, but Yusei Kikuchi has lacked consistency on a year-to-year basis and Alek Manoah struggled through a catastrophic season on the mound. The aforementioned Rodriguez could eventually be a rotation option, but that’s more likely in 2025, as he’ll be on a strict innings count this season. Top prospect Ricky Tiedemann could debut in 2024 as well but thus far has just four innings above the Double-A level.
The Blue Jays have been tied to several high-profile and still-unsigned names — Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell and Matt Chapman among them. Re-signing Chapman is a cleaner fit from a roster construction standpoint, as Toronto has Varsho, Kiermaier and George Springer across the outfield and now Turner at designated hitter, making a rotation including the DH spot more difficult. Adding another bat and/or rotation piece would help to lessen the sting of missing out on top targets earlier in the winter, though it remains unclear how much more ownership is willing to spend after already soaring past the franchise’s prior spending levels.
Jon Morosi of MLB Network first reported that the agreement and the terms.