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Pirates, Rich Hill In Agreement On One-Year Deal

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The Pirates and left-hander Rich Hill are in agreement on a one-year, $8MM deal, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal is pending a physical. Hill is an ACES client.

Hill, 43 in March, has one of the most unique baseball stories. He had some success as a starter early in his career, which began with the Cubs. Back in 2007, he made 32 starts for the Cubbies, tossing 195 innings with a 3.92 ERA. However, injuries and underperformance led to an extended period of struggle for Hill. He didn’t reach 60 MLB innings pitched in any season from 2008 to 2015, often struggling with his health or command or both while bouncing to Baltimore, Boston, Cleveland, the Angels and the Yankees.

Hill’s struggles were so pronounced that he wound up pitching for the Long Island Ducks for a spell in 2015, but he showed enough promise there to earn a minor league deal from the Red Sox. He got promoted late in the season and made four starts with an ERA of 1.55. That was enough for the A’s to take a gamble on him, as they signed him to a $6MM deal for his age-36 season. Hill cemented his improbable late-career comeback by posting a 2.12 ERA in 2016 over 20 starts and has continued to generally post solid results in each year since.

Hill isn’t a workhorse, as he hasn’t hit 160 innings in any season outside of that 2007 campaign with the Cubs. What he has been able to provide in recent years is generally strong innings on a rate basis. From 2016 to the present, he’s made at least 20 starts and logged at least 110 frames in five of the six full seasons, with 2019 being the lone exception when a forearm strain limited him to just 13 starts and 58 2/3 innings. In that time, he has a 3.39 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 39.7% ground ball rate, spending time with the A’s, Dodgers, Twins, Rays, Mets and Red Sox.

The southpaw hasn’t been quite as successful in the past three seasons, especially in the strikeout department. While he punched out 29% of batters faced from 2016 to 2019, it’s been just 21.6% since then. That’s pushed his ERA up as well, as he got to 4.27 with Boston in 2022, with a 20.7% strikeout rate, 7% walk rate and 40.2% ground ball rate this year. Nonetheless, he’s still found ways to be effective, as his hard hit rate was in the 79th percentile this year and his average exit velocity in the 56th.

Going into his age-43 campaign, Hill still garnered plenty of interest on the open market this offseason. The Orioles, Angels, Rangers and Red Sox all showed some interest, but it’s the Pirates that have secured his services for 2023. Hill is the second rotation addition the club has made this offseason, as they also added Vince Velasquez a few weeks ago. Those two should slot next to Mitch Keller, JT Brubaker and Roansy Contreras in the club’s rotation, bumping Bryse Wilson to a long-relief role in the bullpen. The club will have Johan Oviedo, Luis Ortiz and some other arms available as depth for inevitable injuries or future trades. For those clubs that missed out on Hill, the free agent starting pitching market is now topped by the likes of Nathan Eovaldi, Corey Kluber, Michael Wacha and Johnny Cueto.

The Bucs have been firmly in rebuild mode for a few years and are coming off a 100-loss season, but they’ve been fairly active in adding veterans for 2023. They acquired Ji-Man Choi in a trade with the Rays and have also signed Carlos Santana, Austin Hedges and Jarlín García, as well as adding Velasquez and Hill to the rotation. All of those players are lined up to be short-term additions, as they are each slated for free agency after 2023. Though those players could make the club more competent for the upcoming season, they’re also lined up to be trade candidates about half a year from now unless the Pirates suddenly take a huge leap forward in their rebuilding process. Regardless, they should all be able to impart some wisdom to the younger players from their years in the game, with Hill the most qualified to contribute in that capacity. The retirement of Albert Pujols leaves him as the oldest player in the majors.

Financially, this signing bring the Pittsburgh payroll up to $70MM, according to the calculations of Roster Resource. That puts the club well beyond last year’s $56MM, per figures from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but well shy of their franchise record of just under $100MM. There’s no real long-term investment to speak of, as Ke’Bryan Hayes is still the only player under contract for 2024, but this winter’s crop of one-year deals represents the most aggressive additions for the team in a few years.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Mets Designate William Woods For Assignment

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The Mets have made their signing of reliever Adam Ottavino official, announcing it today. They also announced that right-hander William Woods was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Woods, 24 later this week, was on Baseball America’s list of top 30 Atlanta prospects in each of the past two seasons, with BA highlighting a fastball that has been reaching triple digits after the minors were canceled in 2020. Injuries limited him to just 10 2/3 innings in 2021 but the club still added him to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.

He made his MLB debut this year but was only given the chance to make two appearances in the show. He tossed 25 1/3 innings at various minor league stops, but posted a disappointing 6.04 ERA, along with a 24.1% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate.

He was designated for assignment in November and was claimed by the Mets, who were facing a huge bullpen exodus at the time. Edwin Díaz was quickly re-signed but Ottavino, Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodriguez and Mychal Givens all became free agents. The Mets have since improved the situation by re-signing Ottavino, signing David Robertson and trading for Brooks Raley. Woods has now been squeezed off the roster and The Mets will have one week to trade him or pass him through waivers. He could stick with the organization if he were to clear those waivers, as he lacks the service time or previous career outright that would give him the right to elect free agency.

Mets Re-Sign Adam Ottavino To Two-Year Deal

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December 27: The deal has now been officially announced by the Mets.

December 20: The Mets and right-hander Adam Ottavino are in agreement on a contract to bring him back to Queens. It will be a two-year, $14.5MM deal with Ottavino having the ability to opt-out after the first year. The deal is pending a physical. Ottavino is represented by WME Baseball.

Ottavino, 37, has had some ups and downs in his career but has an overall track record of effective relief pitching going back a decade now. He debuted with the Cardinals back in 2010 but came to prominence with the Rockies over a seven-year stretch from 2012 to 2018. In that timeframe, he pitched in 361 games and logged 390 2/3 innings, posting a 3.41 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate, 10.1% walk rate and 46.1% ground ball rate. His strikeout rate ticked upward over his time in Colorado, getting as high as 36.2% in 2018, though there were some control issues, as he walked 16% of batters faced in 2017 and 11.7% in 2018.

He reached free agency and signed with the Yankees going into 2019, signing a three-year deal worth $27MM. The first year of that deal went very well as he posted a 1.90 ERA in the Bronx, though that ballooned to 5.89 in 2020. That was a small sample of 18 1/3 innings in the shortened season, but it was enough for the Yanks to move on, flipping him to the Red Sox in a salary dump trade. Ottavino then posted a 4.21 ERA for Boston in 2021, with his strikeout rate dipping to 25.7% and his walk rate coming in at 12.7%.

The Mets signed Ottavino to a modest one-year deal for 2022 worth $4MM plus incentives and were rewarded with an excellent bounceback campaign. The righty made 66 appearances out of the Mets’ bullpen in 2022, finishing the year with a 2.06 ERA, striking out 30.6% of batters faced while walking just 6.2% of them. He also got ground balls on 51.9% of balls in play while racking up three saves and 18 holds for the year. Based on that strong comeback campaign, MLBTR predicted Ottavino could secure himself a two-year, $14MM contract, which he has narrowly exceeded here.

The Mets were facing a huge bullpen exodus this offseason, with Ottavino, Edwin Díaz, Seth Lugo, Trevor Williams, Joely Rodríguez and Trevor May all reaching free agency a few weeks ago. They have since addressed that situation by re-signing Díaz, signing David Robertson, trading for Brooks Raley and now bringing Ottavino back into the fray as well.

In addition to those moves, the club has been extremely active in free agency to address other parts of the roster. The rotation also had a number of holes appear, with Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker all becoming free agents. Those three were replaced by signing Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and José Quintana. The club also bolstered its position player mix by re-signing Brandon Nimmo and signing Omar Narváez.

The Mets already had one of the highest payrolls in the league in 2022 and those moves have shot them up to incredible new heights. Roster Resource has them at $344MM before even factoring in the Ottavino deal, with a competitive balance tax figure of $356MM. Since the Mets are second-time payors and are well beyond the fourth CBT threshold of $293MM, they are now paying a 90% tax on any further spending. Ottavino will add $7.25MM to that CBT figure, leading to an extra $6.525MM in taxes, meaning the club is effectively paying $13.775MM for Ottavino’s services in 2022.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the Mets signing Ottavino and the two-year with opt-out structure (Twitter links). Jeff Passan of ESPN first had the dollar figures.

Gregory Polanco Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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The Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they have signed outfielder Gregory Polanco for the 2023 season. This will be the second straight year in Japan for Polanco, who played for the Yomiuri Giants in 2022.

Polanco, 31, was a highly-touted prospect with the Pirates and emerged as a valuable piece of their club in the middle parts of the previous decade. An all-around player, Polanco posted double-digit stolen base totals in four of the five season from 2014 to 2018, as well as getting to double digits in home runs three times. His best offensive season was 2018, when he hit 23 home runs and stole 12 bases in 130 games. He finished that campaign with a .254/.340/.499 batting line for a wRC+ of 123.

However, that season was ended when Polanco injured himself on an awkward slide. He dislocated his left shoulder and suffered a bone bruise in his left knee and seemingly wasn’t himself afterwards. He was limited to just 42 games in 2019 and hit at a below-average level when on the field. He generally stayed on the field in 2020 and 2021 but hit just .191/.261/.345 over those two seasons.

Polanco was likely going to be limited to minor league contracts if he stayed in North America for 2022 but instead went to Yomiuri. He got into 138 games for the Giants, hitting 24 home runs and producing a batting line of .240/.306/.457. That performance was solid enough to get him another NPB job in 2023, though he’ll be moving to a new club.

Despite the many ups and downs in his career, Polanco is still just 31 years old and could return to the majors at some point if he stays healthy and continues producing in Japan.

The Opener: D-Backs, Kepler, Marlins

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As the hot stove continues to warm back up after the holidays, here’s three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around baseball throughout the day today:

1. What’s next for Arizona following their trade with Toronto?

The trade last week that sent Daulton Varsho to Toronto with Gabriel Moreno and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. heading to Arizona in exchange brought to a conclusion two storylines that had stretched throughout the whole offseason to that point- that of the Diamondbacks trading one of their outfielders and that of the Blue Jays trading one of their catchers. Toronto could be mostly done after adding Varsho, Kevin Kiermaier, Chris Bassitt, and Erik Swanson, but Arizona still has work to do to round out their roster, even after adding Kyle Lewis in a trade with the Mariners earlier this offseason. The D-Backs lineup looks fairly set at this point, but Mike Hazen’s front office has been said to be targeting relief pitching this offseason, and even though that didn’t come to pass in the Varsho deal, there’s plenty of free agent relievers left on the market for Arizona to choose from. Chief among them is former Diamondback Andrew Chafin, though others such as Michael Fulmer and Will Smith also remain available. Perhaps even more in need of additions than the relief corps is the rotation, however. Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly combine to form a solid top of the rotation, and Madison Bumgarner is locked into a rotation spot toward the back, but the D-Backs could really use another arm or two to occupy the middle of their rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha, and Johnny Cueto are the top options remaining on the free agent market, though a bounce-back candidate such as Wade Miley or Corey Kluber could also make sense.

2. Which teams remain a fit for a Kepler deal?

The Twins are known to have interest in dealing longtime right fielder Max Kepler this offseason, and it’s possible that, with the long-awaited outfield deal out of Arizona done, Kepler’s market could begin to heat up. The Yankees and Marlins both were known to have interest in Arizona’s outfielders prior to the Varsho deal, and if Arizona is done trading from its outfield corps then its possible either team could pivot to Kepler as a less expensive backup option. While the Dodgers and Braves are both known to have interest in upgrading their outfield mixes, the addition of Kepler’s $8.5MM salary in 2023 would be a complicated add for either team, making a deal unlikely. Perhaps the best fits for Kepler are the Rockies and Rangers, both teams in need of outfield help who could be improved by Kepler’s steady though unspectacular bat even if he fails to return to the solidly above average bat he was 2019-2020, when he posted a .831 OPS in 182 games.

3. When will the Marlins move an arm?

The Marlins are known to be shopping members of their starting rotation to other clubs in their search for improved offense, though they’ve made it clear both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are off-limits. Pablo Lopez is the most frequently discussed trade candidate in the Marlins rotation, but Trevor Rogers could make more sense for clubs with a longer path to contention, as he is under club control for two more years than Lopez, a free agent after the 2024 season. The Dodgers and Cardinals, as immediate clear contenders with solid rotations lacking in depth, seem like prime candidates to deal for Lopez, as such a deal would allow them to push Dustin May and Steven Matz, respectively, into swing roles. The Orioles and Diamondbacks, meanwhile, could make sense as partners in a Rogers trade. Both clubs are making pushes toward increased competitiveness in 2023, but face tough divisions that could limit their playoff opportunities in the near-term, making a longer term investment make more sense. Both teams are also in desperate need of rotation help; Arizona’s situation is detailed above, while Baltimore arguably downgraded the rotation by swapping out Jordan Lyles for Kyle Gibson when it was already the weakest part of their roster. All four of these clubs have the young, controllable position players/prospects who could be attractive to the Marlins as a return for one of their pitchers, as well.

Latest On Mets, Carlos Correa

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The status of the Mets’ agreement with Carlos Correa is the predominant story in MLB at the moment. Reports over the weekend emerged that New York had taken issue with something related to Correa’s right leg/ankle during his physical. There’s remained optimism the sides will be able to get a deal done, although it presented another twist in an unexpected saga for one of the offseason’s top free agents.

The Mets had jumped in to agree to terms with Correa on a 12-year, $315MM contract — pending the physical — within a day of the Giants pulling out of a 13-year, $350MM pact after their doctors reportedly took issue with something in the All-Star’s right leg. Correa underwent his physical with the Mets last Thursday; reports emerged Saturday afternoon that examination hadn’t gone completely smoothly.

With the holiday weekend, discussions between the Mets and Correa’s camp have apparently been somewhat on the back burner for the past couple days. Last night, Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote that some other teams had touched base with the player’s representatives after word of the physical concerns trickled out. However, Heyman indicated Correa remained focused on the Mets as of last night, with dialogue between his camp and the New York organization more productive than it had been with San Francisco in the hours after the Giants expressed concern about Correa’s physical during their examination.

The Post’s Mike Puma provides additional context this evening, reporting that three-plus rival teams have been in touch with the Boras Corporation about Correa after the Mets expressed trepidation. Puma writes the 28-year-old would strongly prefer to join the Mets than go back into free agency after a second agreement fell apart but suggests Correa’s camp is not open to moving off the sides’ initial 12-year, $315MM price point.

Puma suggests it’s still likelier than not that Correa and the Mets work something out, with one source pegging the odds of him landing in Queens around 55%. Nevertheless, Correa’s reported unwillingness to alter the basic framework of the deal could prove a stumbling block depending on the extent of the Mets’ trepidation. Puma writes there’s some consideration being given to the possibility of including a provision that’d protect the Mets in the event Correa’s right leg proves problematic during the contract term.

That kind of provision is rare but not completely without precedent. As an example, fellow Boras Corporation client J.D. Martinez altered his deal with the Red Sox over the 2018-19 offseason after the team flagged a foot issue during his physical. The sides moved forward with their agreed-upon five-year, $110MM framework but included stipulations that would’ve allowed the Red Sox to opt out of the final two years of the contract in the event Martinez suffered another foot injury that resulted in a lengthy injured list stint (as reported by Evan Drellich, then of NBC Sports Boston). Martinez never suffered a serious injury and wound up playing out the five-year deal before hitting free agency again this winter.

Correa has never had an MLB injured list stint related to his right leg, which he fractured as a prospect back in 2014. The injury required surgery and ended his minor league season. He returned at the start of the following year and hasn’t missed any notable time because of the issue since then, though doctors for both the Giants and Mets have now identified something that gives them pause.

There figures to be more clarity on the matter over the coming days. It’s likely to remain the sport’s top story until the sides either finalize the deal or Correa’s camp decides to pivot back to free agency. Various reports continue to suggest the former outcome is probable, though far from certain.

MLBTR Poll: Nathan Eovaldi’s Landing Spot

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Aside from Carlos Correa, whose agreed-upon deal with the Mets is on hold as his camp and the team try to sort out renewed concerns regarding the shortstop’s physical, Nathan Eovaldi is the highest-ranked player from MLBTR’s top 50 free agents who has yet to put pen to paper. He’s also the only unsigned player who’d turned down a qualifying offer.

A few teams have been tied to the former All-Star starter. Last week, Rob Bradford of WEEI reported the Padres, Angels and an unnamed American League East club were in the mix. It doesn’t seem that team is the incumbent Red Sox, as Bradford has suggested on a few occasions this offseason Boston doesn’t appear especially motivated to retain the right-hander.

The Padres have already made a couple rotation moves, re-signing Nick Martinez and adding Seth Lugo on a two-year pact. They’re presently slated for the final two spots behind Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell. There’s still a fair bit of downside in that group, with neither Martinez nor Lugo having much recent track record as an MLB starting pitcher. Both Martinez and Lugo have the chance to opt out of their deals after the 2023 season (albeit only if the Padres first decline a two-year, $32MM club option in Martinez’s case). Darvish and Snell are each ticketed for free agency after next year, leaving Musgrove potentially as the only long-term rotation building block. Headed into his age-33 season, Eovaldi’s not likely to receive a significantly long investment, but he figures to command multiple years and could help solidify the post-2023 rotation in San Diego.

Anaheim already has a solid front five. Shohei Ohtani is the ace, while Tyler Anderson was brought in on a three-year free agent deal to add to the middle of the staff. Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers round out the group, with all three young southpaws having pitched well down the stretch in 2022. The Angels have frequently relied upon a six-man staff in the Ohtani era, though. Even if they’re planning to go with a five-man group to maximize Ohtani’s workload next year, there’s merit to bringing in another stable arm who can add some injury insurance.

Aside from San Diego and Anaheim, reports of known suitors for Eovaldi have been few and far between. The Yankees and Blue Jays were linked to him earlier in the winter, but those clubs have since signed Carlos Rodón and Chris Bassitt, respectively. New York now seems likely to be out on Eovaldi entirely, with Rodón joining Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Nestor Cortes and Frankie Montas in the starting five. Toronto could fit for a rotation pickup on paper given the uncertainty associated with José Berríos and Yusei Kikuchi/Mitch White at the back end. Yet they’re already projected for a franchise-record payroll, and general manager Ross Atkins told reporters over the weekend he believes the team’s “hefty lifting is done.”

If one assumes the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays aren’t the unnamed AL East team involved in Eovaldi’s market, that’d leave the Rays and Orioles. Baltimore is the better fit, with Tampa Bay having inked Zach Eflin to a $40MM deal to bolster an already quality rotation. Baltimore entered the offseason seeking starting pitching. Thus far, they’ve swapped in Kyle Gibson for Jordan Lyles in the veteran innings eater role but haven’t made the kind of mid-rotation or better addition most had anticipated. Baltimore has some rotation options — i.e. Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer, Austin Voth and top prospect Grayson Rodriguez — but it’s a group light on MLB experience.

A few other teams make some sense as speculative possibilities, albeit as imperfect fits. The Rangers have added four starters already this winter, though they could at least consider another arm to push both Jake Odorizzi and Dane Dunning into depth roles. The Twins have ample payroll space amidst a quiet winter. Rotation help isn’t a need per se, but adding Eovaldi would help guard against some of the injury question marks with the in-house staff. The White Sox may not have any additional spending room after their five-year commitment to Andrew Benintendi. If they do have some money to play with, though, another starter would fit on the roster. The Dodgers could look to fortify their rotation with Walker Buehler missing most or all of next season. There’s room on paper for Eovaldi but they’d have to exceed the luxury tax threshold, which they don’t seem eager to do, in order to add him.

Where does the MLBTR readership anticipate Eovaldi winding up?

(poll link for app users)

 

Braves Sign Jackson Stephens To Major League Contract

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The Braves announced this evening they’ve signed reliever Jackson Stephens to a one-year contract. It’s a split deal that pays him at varied rates depending on whether he’s in the majors or minors. Stephens secures a 40-man roster spot, bringing Atlanta’s roster to capacity. Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter link) the 28-year-old will be paid at a $740K rate for any time spent in the majors.

Stephens is coming off a solid season in the middle innings for Atlanta. He was called upon by skipper Brian Snitker for 39 appearances out of the bullpen. Stephens tallied a career-high 53 2/3 innings while posting a personal-low 3.69 ERA. His 20% strikeout rate was a bit below average, but he generated grounders at a solid 46.3% clip. Stephens averaged 94.1 MPH on his fastball and generated high-end spin but middling velocity on his 76.8 MPH curveball.

That marked the Alabama native’s first MLB action in four years. He’d previously pitched with the 2017-18 Reds. He spent 2019 in Triple-A, didn’t pitch with the cancelation of the minor league season the following year, then spent 2021 in Mexico. Stephens returned to affiliated ball on a minor league deal with Atlanta during the lockout. He cracked the MLB roster a week into the season and spent the rest of the season in the majors.

After acquiring Dennis Santana from the Rangers in mid-November, Atlanta designated Stephens for assignment. That was just days before the deadline for clubs to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible or pre-arbitration players. The Braves kept him in DFA limbo and non-tendered him, sending him directly into free agency without first needing to clear waivers. A month later, the front office circled back to bring Stephens back to the organization.

Stephens is out of minor league option years, meaning the Braves can’t send him to the minors so long as he’s on the 40-man roster. That they nevertheless agreed upon a split deal may indicate Atlanta plans to place him on outright waivers in the coming weeks. That’d be the only way to get him back to Triple-A Gwinnett, where his lower base salary would come into play, although it’d require him going unclaimed on waivers.

While the idea of signing a player to an MLB contract to subsequently run him through outright waivers might seem counterintuitive, it’s not unheard of. The minor league salary involved could come at a higher rate than is typical for a player who signs a straightforward minor league contract. That could serve as an incentive for the player to accept a minor league assignment if he clears waivers. Earlier in the offseason, the Orioles signed a pair of players — Anthony Bemboom and Jake Cave — to split deals shortly before trying to run them through waivers. The gambit was successful in Bemboom’s case, as he agreed to stick around at Triple-A upon going unclaimed, but didn’t pan out with Cave, whom the Phillies claimed.

That’s a speculative scenario at this point, to be clear. Stephens will take a spot on the 40-man roster for now. If he still holds that job come Spring Training, he’ll battle for a middle innings role at Truist Park for a second straight year. Atlanta has Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Collin McHugh, Kirby Yates, Dylan Lee and Santana locked into Opening Day bullpen roles, though Stephens could battle with the likes of Nick Anderson, Seth Elledge and Michael Tonkin for lower-leverage innings.

Which Remaining Free Agent Relievers Are Coming Off The Best Seasons?

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The offseason floodgates opened this month, with an avalanche of free agent activity once the Winter Meetings got underway. Things have quieted down in recent days thanks to the holidays, but clubs are likely to again get back to attacking the free agent market in earnest this week.

Most of the winter’s top names are off the board, leaving teams to mostly look through lower-cost options as they search for upgrades on the margins of the roster. There are still a number of experienced options available, particularly for teams seeking to round out the bullpen. Using MLBTR’s free agent list, we find 47 pitchers who tossed at least 20 innings out of a team’s bullpen in 2022 and remain unsigned.

We’ll sort the remaining free agent relievers by various metrics of 2022 performance to identify some of the top arms. There are obviously other factors for teams to consider — quality of raw stuff, pre-2022 track record, the player’s injury history, etc. — but a brief snapshot on the top bullpen arms by last year’s performance should provide a decent starting point for players teams might target moving forward. (All figures cited, including league averages, are looking solely at pitchers’ outings as relievers).

ERA (league average — 3.86)

  1. Matt Moore (LHP), 1.95
  2. Alex Young (LHP), 2.08
  3. Matt Wisler (RHP), 2.23
  4. Wily Peralta (RHP), 2.72
  5. Brad Hand (LHP), 2.80
  6. Andrew Chafin (LHP), 2.83
  7. David Phelps (RHP), 2.87
  8. Ralph Garza Jr. (RHP), 3.34
  9. Jackson Stephens (RHP), 3.38
  10. Michael Fulmer (RHP), 3.39

Strikeout rate (league average — 23.6%)

  1. Daniel Norris (LHP), 30%
  2. Darren O’Day (RHP), 27.7%
  3. Andrew Chafin, 27.6%
  4. Matt Moore, 27.3%
  5. Aroldis Chapman (LHP), 26.9%
  6. Steve Cishek (RHP), 25.8%
  7. Chasen Shreve (LHP), 25.4%
  8. Will Smith (LHP), 24.9%
  9. David Phelps, 23.9%
  10. Noé Ramirez, 23.7%

Strikeout/walk rate differential (league average — 14.5 percentage points)

  1. Andrew Chafin, 19.8 points
  2. Daniel Norris, 19 points
  3. Darren O’Day, 17 points
  4. Chasen Shreve, 16.7 points
  5. Steve Cishek, 16.4 points
  6. Craig Stammen (RHP), 15.7 points
  7. Will Smith, 15.3 points
  8. Matt Moore, 14.8 points
  9. Ross Detwiler (LHP), 14.8 points
  10. Luke Weaver (RHP), 13.8 points

Ground-ball rate (league average — 43.5%)

  1. Luis Perdomo (RHP), 62.5%
  2. Joe Smith (RHP), 57.5%
  3. Alex Young, 55.7%
  4. Alex Colomé (RHP), 55.6%
  5. T.J. McFarland (LHP), 53%
  6. Craig Stammen, 52.6%
  7. Garrett Richards (RHP), 52.4%
  8. Bryan Shaw (RHP), 51.8%
  9. Andrew Chafin, 51.3%
  10. Jacob Barnes (RHP), 50.7%

FIP (league average — 3.86)

  1. Luke Weaver, 2.46
  2. Alex Young, 2.65
  3. Matt Moore, 2.98
  4. Andrew Chafin, 3.06
  5. David Phelps, 3.11
  6. Garrett Richards, 3.16
  7. Jackson Stephens, 3.45
  8. Michael Fulmer, 3.57
  9. Brad Hand, 3.93
  10. Darren O’Day, 4.04

Innings Pitched

  1. Matt Moore, 74
  2. Caleb Smith (LHP), 69
  3. Steve Cishek, 66 1/3
  4. Michael Fulmer, 63 2/3
  5. David Phelps, 62 2/3
  6. Hunter Strickland (RHP), 62 1/3
  7. Will Smith, 59
  8. Andrew Chafin, 57 1/3
  9. Bryan Shaw, 54
  10. Jackson Stephens/Hirokazu Sawamura (RHP), 50 2/3 each

Assessing The Yankees’ Options In Left-Field

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The Yankees have been one of baseball’s busier teams this winter, bringing back Aaron Judge on a franchise-record nine-year, $360MM deal, while also adding Carlos Rodon and Tommy Kahnle and bringing back first-baseman Anthony Rizzo on a two-year pact. There’s no guarantee more moves are on the way for New York, but it seems if there is one move to make it’ll come in left-field.

Ten players saw time in left for the Yankees in 2022. Of the players who made more than ten appearances there, Joey Gallo, Andrew Benintendi and Miguel Andujar have new teams, Tim Locastro and Marwin Gonzalez are free agents, while Aaron Hicks remains on the roster. While there’s been reports of the Yankees trying to move Hicks this winter, he remains on the team and at this point figures to have some role to play in 2023. Given his presence, it makes sense to take a look at the internal candidates to man left in 2023, before taking a look at what options the Yankees have externally if they do go down that route.

Internal Options

  • Aaron Hicks: The 33-year-old had a disappointing campaign in 2022, slashing .216/.330/.313 with eight home runs in 130 games. That was good for a 90 wRC+ (ten percentage points below league average), and was the second straight year Hicks has been below-average offensively. He was a solid contributor from 2017-20, but has seen his power numbers drop off significantly in recent years. Hicks did benefit from a move from center to left, and was worth 8 Defensive Runs Saved in 413 innings there in 2022. He has three years and $30.5MM (including a buyout on a $12.5MM team option in 2026). Should the Yankees opt against bringing a left-fielder in, Hicks seems to be the most likely player to be manning the position on opening day.
  • Oswaldo Cabrera: Cabrera acted as something of a spark plug for the Yankees after receiving his first big league call up in August this year. Down the stretch, Cabrera played in 44 games, slashing .247/.312/.429 with six home runs while appearing in every position bar center-field and catcher. Despite having played just 34 outfield innings in the minors, Cabrera spent the bulk of his big league time in the corner spots, impressing to the tune of 9 Defensive Runs Saved in 278 2/3 innings. While Cabrera certainly put a strong case forward to be an everyday outfielder going forward, he may have more value to the Yankees as utility-type given his ability to play just about any position.
  • Giancarlo Stanton: The veteran spent the most time on the grass in a season since 2018, logging 312 2/3 innings after being restricted to the DH spot almost exclusively in recent years. The bulk of that came in right-field, where Stanton was worth -4 Defensive Runs Saved. It’s unlikely to be a better picture in left, and while Stanton remains a strong offensive threat, it seems more likely that the Yankees will keep him in the DH spot more often than not and use him in the outfield only occasionally.
  • Estevan Florial: The 25-year-old has been stuck in the upper minors for a while now, tallying just 63 big league plate appearances in the last three seasons. During that time he’s hit .185/.302/.278 with a single home run. The former top-100 prospect hit .283/.368/.481 with 15 home runs and 39 stolen bases at Triple-A last year. He’s out of options now, so the Yankees would have to expose him to waivers if they want to take him off the big league roster. There’s a chance the Yankees keep him around as an outfield option on the bench, but they haven’t seen enough in recent years to give him an extended look in the majors and it’s unlikely they’d do that now.

Free Agents

  • David Peralta/Trey Mancini/Andrew McCutchen: The free agent market for left-fielders has been largely cleared out, but if the Yankees were to go down that path this trio of hitters would likely be the best remaining options. With perhaps the exception of Mancini, they could likely have these players on one-year deals. Peralta’s left-handedness could make him more appealing in Yankee Stadium, but ultimately all three have limitations that make it unlikely the Yankees would go down this route. At the end of the day, if the Yankees are to upgrade left-field it’d surely be for someone that vastly improves their current options. The trade market certainly has those options, but it doesn’t appear that free agency does anymore.

Trade Market

  • Bryan Reynolds: The switch-hitting Pirates star has been linked to the Yankees in recent weeks since requesting a trade out of Pittsburgh. There’s no guarantee the Pirates trade Reynolds, and it appears they’re asking for a significant haul (headlined by a top pitching prospect) in return. The top of the Yankees’ farm system is heavy in position players, which may make a match tricky but Reynolds would fit their needs. He’s under control for three more seasons and will earn $6.75MM in 2023. That’s a highly affordable rate for a player who’s amassed 12.5 fWAR in four seasons. It’d be a big swing for the Yankees to go out and trade for Reynolds, and they’d have to give up a lot of prospect value, but it’d certainly put them in a strong position over the next few seasons.
  • Max Kepler: Kepler is under control for another season at $9.5MM (including a buyout on a $10MM 2024 team option). He experienced a down year at the plate last season, hitting just nine home runs and slashing .227/.318/.348. He’s a left-handed pull hitter, so there’s a chance that a combination of Yankee Stadium’s short porch and the restrictions on defensive positioning can boost his offensive numbers, but a lot of his value is in his glove. While he has been playing right-field in Minnesota, he’s been worth 19 Defensive Runs Saved there over the past two seasons. The cost to acquire him would be less than Reynolds, but the production would likely be less too. While Kepler makes some sense, the Yankees may wonder whether it’s worth carrying both Hicks and Kepler on the same roster.
  • Arizona’s Outfielders: Even after dealing Daulton Varsho to Toronto, the Diamondbacks are still stocked with outfielders, especially given they acquired one – Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – in that trade. Corbin Carroll, Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy are all young outfielders that project as the future of Arizona’s outfield. They’ve been mentioned in trades and certainly could appeal to New York, but perhaps they could be motivated to flip Gurriel to New York. He slashed .291/.343/.400 with five home runs for Toronto last season, and is under control for one more season at $5.8MM. The Snakes are building a strong young roster, and while Gurriel is a solid player, his one year of remaining team control probably doesn’t align with Arizona returning to contention.

Ultimately, there’s a few different options for the Yankees to go down. As poor as Hicks was in 2022, he was still worth 1.5 fWAR and if the Yankees can’t trade him and don’t want to go after a clear upgrade like Reynolds, it does make some sense to at least start the season with him in left. That way they can see if he can rebound at the plate, and look to make a move depending on how that goes at the trade deadline mid-season.

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