Blue Jays Activate Brandon Belt From 10-Day IL
The Blue Jays activated first baseman/DH Brandon Belt from the 10-day injured list today, returning the veteran slugger to action after a 15-day absence due to lower back spasms. Toronto also called up right-hander Jay Jackson from Triple-A, while optioning right-hander Nate Pearson and first baseman Spencer Horwitz to the Florida Complex League (since the Triple-A season is over).
Apart from this two-week stint and an earlier 10-day absence due to a hamstring injury, it has been a pretty healthy season for Belt, which is a nice outcome given his long injury history. Recurring knee problems have plagued Belt in recent years, and surgery on his right knee prematurely ended Belt’s 2022 season and even had him wondering if retirement was in the cards. However, Belt decided to continue playing on his surgically-repaired knee, a decision that has paid off well for both the 35-year-old and the Jays.
Signed to a one-year, $9.3MM free agent deal last winter, Belt has hit .251/.369/.470 with 16 home runs over 382 plate appearances. The Blue Jays have used Belt mostly as a DH and rarely sent him to the plate against left-handed pitchers, but this platoon usage has perhaps contributed to Belt’s ability to stay healthy for the majority of the 2023 campaign. Belt has been one of the steadier contributors to a Toronto lineup that has struggled to consistently generate offense, so getting Belt back for the regular season’s final six games is a big help as the Jays try to lock up a wild card slot.
Reds’ Matt McLain Shut Down For Remainder Of 2023 Season
Rookie infielder Matt McLain has missed just shy of a month due to a right oblique strain and was expected to return from the 10-day injured list today, ready to join the Reds for the final week of their push for an NL wild card berth. Unfortunately, McLain won’t be activated for at least the rest of the regular season, as the Reds told reporters (including Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer) that McLain suffered another oblique injury while rehabbing.
The new injury is a Grade 2 strain, a more serious type of oblique problem that would usually mean something in the neighborhood of a two-month layoff (at least). Oblique injuries usually don’t have a set timeline, and yet even if the Reds were to make it all the way to the World Series, there doesn’t appear to be any chance that McLain will be part of even a deep postseason run.
It’s a tough outcome for both McLain and the Reds, who sit 2.5 games out of a wild card berth with five games remaining in their schedule. The Phillies have all but clinched the top wild card berth and the Cubs and Diamondbacks are tied for the second and third WC slots, though Cincinnati won their season series against both Chicago and Arizona. That would give the Reds the tiebreaker edge over either club in the event of a matching record, though the Marlins also sit between the Reds and the playoff line.
A team needs all the help it can get in such a tight pennant race, which is why the prospect of McLain’s return looked like such a boost to Cincinnati’s fortunes. McLain has hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers over 403 plate appearances in his first MLB season, as he has been arguably the best of the several younger players coming up from the minors to immediately help carry the Reds into contention. Between his offense (128 wRC+) and defensive contributions as both a shortstop and second baseman, McLain generated 3.2 fWAR over his 89 games.
This excellent rookie year certainly establishes McLain as a big part of the Reds’ future, though his absence has undoubtedly hampered the club’s present chances of the playoffs. Cincinnati is 12-13 since McLain’s last game, though a long losing streak at the start of August already dealt a blow to the upstart team’s hopes. The Reds at least got Jonathan India back from the IL earlier this month, and India and Elly De La Cruz have been regularly handling the middle infield duties.
White Sox Place Luis Robert Jr. On 10-Day Injured List
The White Sox announced three moves today, including the placement of outfielder Luis Robert Jr. on the 10-day injured list. Robert is suffering from a “mild” left MCL sprain, and the IL stint will officially send his 2023 season. Tyler Naquin‘s contract has been selected from Triple-A to take Robert’s spot on the active roster, and Jimmy Lambert was shifted to the 60-day IL to open up space for Naquin on the 40-man roster.
Robert left Sunday’s game due to soreness in his left knee, so it isn’t surprising that trip to the injured list was in order. The Sox noted that Robert is expected to be fine within 2-4 weeks of recovery time, so the injury won’t have any impact on his readiness for the offseason or for Spring Training.
Though Robert will end his fourth MLB season on the injured list, he has played in 145 games and amassed 595 plate appearances, both easily career bests for the 26-year-old. He played in only 166 of a possible 324 games in 2021-22 due to a variety of injuries, yet as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald observed in a post earlier this month, staying healthy has finally allowed Robert to show the form that made him one of baseball’s top prospects.
Robert will finish the 2023 season with 38 homers, 20 steals (from 24 chances), 90 runs scored and a .264/.315/.542 slash line, translating to a 128 wRC+. Beyond that offense, Robert also figures to contend for his second Gold Glove, with +6 Defensive Runs Saved and +13 Outs Above Average in 1207 2/3 innings in center field. Among all qualified players, only 15 players have a better fWAR than Robert’s 5.0 total.
Robert’s injury creates an opportunity for Naquin to appear in his first Major League game of the 2023 season, continuing his streak of appearing in at least a piece of every MLB campaign since his 2016 rookie season. He signed a minor league deal with the Brewers during the offseason and spent most of 2023 with Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate, foregoing his contractually mandated opt-out dates while also battling some shoulder problems.
In early August, the Brewers traded Naquin to the White Sox, a post-deadline deal made possible because Naquin hadn’t spent any time on the Brewers’ 40-man roster or Major League injured list. The 32-year-old has hit .257/.317/.408 over 269 combined PA at the Triple-A level this season.
Lambert underwent arthroscopic ankle surgery last week, so the move to the 60-day IL is just a formality since his season was already over. The White Sox provided an update on Lambert today, saying that he is expected to be fully recovered after 2-3 months.
AL Central Notes: Francona, Twins, Tigers
The first 20,000 fans in attendance at Wednesday’s Guardians home game against the Reds will receive “Thank You, Tito” t-shirts, to commemorate what is very likely Terry Francona’s final home game as the Guards’ manager. It isn’t much of a secret that Francona is planning to retire after the season, though he has stopped short of making an official announcement since “he would rather execute an Irish exit than attract one extra iota of attention,” the Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes. Meisel’s piece is an excellent profile of Francona’s long career as a manager, coach, and player, providing plenty of insight and colorful anecdotes into one of baseball’s greatest skippers.
Here’s more from around the AL Central…
- The Twins will use Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray (in an order to be determined) as the starters of their first two playoff games, manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and other reporters. Baldelli didn’t confirm any of Minnesota’s other pitching plans for October, but in implying that Kenta Maeda will be working as a reliever during the postseason, that would seem to set up Joe Ryan as the team’s top choice as a third starter. Ryan has a 3.82 ERA over 30 2/3 innings since returning from the injured list, as trying to pitch through a groin strain contributed to some very shaky numbers for Ryan in midseason after an outstanding April and May. Maeda has had a strong season in his own right and hasn’t worked as a reliever since 2019, but his usage out of the bullpen gives the Twins a potential impact reliever for their playoff run.
- Tigers prospect Jace Jung has played only second base and DH during his two pro seasons, but he’ll now be getting some looks as a third baseman in the Arizona Fall League, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes. Both MLB Pipeline (67th) and Baseball America (98th) rank Jung among the top 100 prospects in baseball, though both outlets have concerns about his eventual defensive future, as second base was seen as a less-challenging spot for Jung than the hot corner. However, an even more highly-touted Detroit prospect faces similar defensive questions, as Colt Keith (18th BA, 25th Pipeline) looks ticketed for second base duty. Keith gets the priority because he has posted big numbers at Triple-A this second and could factor into Detroit’s lineup as early as Opening Day 2024, while Jung might need more time to get acclimated at his new position and has yet to reach Triple-A. Keith and Jung are two of several intriguing position-player prospects coming up the ranks in the Tigers’ farm system, to the point that Henning feels a possible logjam for future playing time gives the Tigers a good problem to have in figuring out who plays where, and ultimately might players might be kept or used as trade chips.
Brewers Notes: Canha, Mitchell, Ashby
The Brewers have already clinched a playoff berth and their magic number to clinch the NL Central is one, leaving Milwaukee on the doorstep of winning its third division crown in the last six seasons. This will also be the Brew Crew’s fifth postseason appearance in that same six-year stretch, as the club has rebounded nicely after missing out on a wild card berth by just one game in 2022.
A 31-18 record since August 1 helped turn the NL Central race into a relatively comfortable finish for the Brewers, who hold a six-game lead over the second-place Cubs. August 1 also happened to be Mark Canha‘s first game with Milwaukee after being acquired from the Mets the day prior, and Canha has played a big role in the Brewers’ surge. Canha had a solid but unspectacular .245/.343/.381 slash line over 303 plate appearances with New York prior to the deal, but he has kicked things up a couple of notches as a Brewer — Canha has hit .296/.388/.451 with five homers over 188 PA with Milwaukee.
There is perhaps a little good fortune involved, as Canha has a .321 BABIP with the Brewers as compared to a .278 BABIP with the Mets. However, he has also reduced his strikeout rate and is hitting for a lot more power since changing teams, and Canha told The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak that he created a quick rapport with Brewers hitting coaches Ozzie Timmons and Connor Dawson.
This success has boosted Canha’s case heading into a possible trip to free agency. This is the final guaranteed season of the two-year, $26.5MM deal Canha signed with the Mets in November 2021, and New York is still covering all of that remaining money (minus a prorated MLB minimum salary) as per the terms of July’s trade. The Brewers are responsible for what’s next, whether it’s picking up a $11.5MM club option on Canha for 2024 or buying him out for $2MM.
It makes for a one-year, $9.5MM decision for the team, and Rosiak notes that Canha would be a nice fit for Milwaukee’s unsettled first base picture. Carlos Santana has hit decently well since coming to the Brewers in another deadline deal, but Santana will also be a free agent, and Canha brings more defensive versatility as a player capable of lining up at either corner outfield slot as well as first base.
Canha would be eager to stay in Milwaukee, saying “I think this organization just really does it, quote unquote, right. It’s just a place that has a good feel and a good idea of how to win ballgames and how to construct rosters….At this point in my career, when you’ve been in a bunch of different situations, year to year, you appreciate that.”
Garrett Mitchell also figures to be an important part of the Brewers’ outfield picture in 2024, but the former top prospect might be on the verge of still making an impact on this season. A wayward slide into third base back in April resulted in a shoulder surgery for Mitchell, and the procedure threatened to end his 2023 campaign after only 16 games. However, Mitchell has been diligently rehabbing, and was able to get back onto the field September 15 to begin a Triple-A rehab assignment.
That assignment is now eight games deep, and with the Triple-A season now over, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy (X link) suggests that Mitchell might be activated from the 60-day injured list as early as today. Getting back to the majors this season would present both an important psychological and physical achievement for Mitchell in the bigger picture, but he could also make a late bid for Milwaukee’s playoff roster.
Canha, Christian Yelich, Sal Frelick, Blake Perkins and Tyrone Taylor all look like certainties for the outfield depth chart heading into the postseason, as Taylor seems to have recovered from a minor hamstring issue that kept him out of a few games last week. This is another area where Canha’s versatility is important to the Brewers, as if the Crew prefers him as a first base or DH option, it creates room for Mitchell to provide further depth in the outfield.
Aaron Ashby is another Brewers youngster recovering from shoulder surgery, but it doesn’t appear as though Ashby’s comeback attempt will lead to a return during the regular season or postseason. The left-hander hasn’t pitched at all in 2023 due to arthroscopic surgery in April, though he has pitched in seven rehab outings in September, advancing from high-A ball to Double-A to Triple-A. While rehab assignments are more about getting healthy than bottom-line results, the 15.43 ERA Ashby has posted over his seven total minor league innings indicates that he isn’t quite right yet, so it seems highly unlikely that the Brewers would turn to him as an option for a postseason roster.
Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals
The Nationals were a little more competitive than expected into late summer. They’ve improved on last year’s 107-loss showing but are likely headed for a fourth straight last-place finish in the NL East. The rebuild continues.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Stephen Strasburg, RHP: $105MM through 2026 ($80MM in deferred payments between 2028-30)
- Keibert Ruiz, C: $48MM through 2030 (deal includes club options for ’31 and ’32)
- Patrick Corbin, LHP: $35MM through 2024 ($10MM in deferred payments between 2025-26)
- Trevor Williams, RHP: $7MM through 2024
Option Decisions
- Victor Robles, CF: $3.3MM club option (no buyout); would remain eligible for arbitration if team declines
2024 commitments: $85MM
Total future commitments (not including deferrals): $195MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players
- Victor Robles
- Dominic Smith
- Kyle Finnegan
- Lane Thomas
- Tanner Rainey
- Michael Chavis
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Victor Arano
- Hunter Harvey
- Luis García (potential Super Two)
- Carter Kieboom (potential Super Two)
Non-tender candidates: Robles, Smith, Chavis, Vargas, Arano, Kieboom
Free Agents
The Nationals may have already made what’ll be their most consequential decisions for the upcoming season. With manager Dave Martinez and GM Mike Rizzo in the final years of their respective contracts, the possibility existed for large-scale organizational changes. Instead, Washington has locked in leadership stability in recent weeks. Martinez signed a two-year extension with a team option for 2026; Rizzo inked a multi-year pact of unreported length not long after.
Rizzo has been at the helm for nearly a decade and a half, a tenure exceeded only by Brian Cashman (Yankees) and John Mozeliak (Cardinals) among current baseball operations leaders. Martinez will be headed into his seventh season leading the dugout. Both have had success in Washington before their ongoing rebuild — highlighted by their 2019 World Series victory — offering reason for optimism they can lead the franchise back to success.
That’s unlikely to happen in 2024, however. The Nationals have made progress this year, as their win percentage is up from 34.5% to 43.9%. After finishing as the worst team in the majors in 2022, they own the game’s 24th-best record this season. Yet there’s still a wide discrepancy between the quality of the current roster and one that’s capable of competing for a playoff spot.
It’s most evident in the rotation, which is allowing exactly five earned runs per nine with the league’s fourth-lowest strikeout rate. Washington has had rare stability for a rotation performing at that level. Only six pitchers have logged even 30+ innings as starters.
On the plus side, their best performers have been a pair of young players who could be key pieces on the next competitive Washington club. Josiah Gray (4.00) and MacKenzie Gore (4.42) have the best ERAs of the group. Neither pitcher has developed into a top-of-the-rotation arm. They each still issue a few too many walks, while Gore has battled the home run ball. Gray’s production has tailed off in the second half. These issues aside, both hurlers have performed as big league-capable starters over a full season. They’ve done enough to secure spots in next year’s rotation, when the club will hope at least one takes a step forward to solidify himself as an above-average starter.
There’s not as much optimism for the rest of the group. Jake Irvin doesn’t miss bats and looks best suited as a depth option. Joan Adon has never found big league success. Veterans Patrick Corbin and Trevor Williams are each under contract through 2024 and have taken their share of innings but without great production. Corbin is on his third straight season with an ERA above 5.00 as he plays on a lofty free agent contract that went awry after one year (albeit one in which he was a key contributor to the World Series win). The signing of Williams to a two-year deal last winter hasn’t panned out.
Stephen Strasburg remains on the roster after the surprising reversal of course on his planned retirement. Continuing to devote him a 40-man spot when he’s unlikely to ever pitch again is a bizarre decision on the organization’s part, though it’s not particularly consequential at this point of the rebuild.
Washington could run things back with the same rotation group, as everyone is either under contract or club control. Former first-round draftee Cade Cavalli could break back into the mix midseason after undergoing Tommy John surgery in March. The Nats have options to plug innings, which isn’t true of every rebuilding team. Still, aside from a step forward from one of Gore or Gray, they couldn’t project much better results than they received this season. It’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one starter who could push Irvin back to Triple-A or Williams into the long relief role he’s had for the bulk of his career.
It’s hard to envision the Nats spending at the top of the market. They could offer a rotation spot to a rebound candidate like Luis Severino, Frankie Montas or Alex Wood in the hope that player could serve as a midseason trade chip. If they wanted to secure some stability over multiple years without making a huge financial commitment, they could consider the likes of Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.
They’ll probably also add an arm or two to the relief corps, as Washington has the lowest bullpen strikeout rate in the league. It’s not time to play at the top of the market for Josh Hader or pursue a veteran closer in the Craig Kimbrel mold. There are a number of middle relievers who’ll be available on one or two-year deals that could add swing-and-miss to the group. Ryne Stanek, Shintaro Fujinami and Keynan Middleton are among the power arms available in free agency.
Any free agent pickups would join a relief corps led by Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, and quietly effective waiver pickup Robert Garcia. The Nats could listen to trade offers on Finnegan or Harvey, though they’re not under pressure to make a deal with both pitchers eligible for arbitration through 2025.
There’s more reason for optimism on the other side of the ball. Washington has the potential for a strong future position player core, most of which was acquired in trades of their last group of stars. Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams are already playing regular roles on the big league club. Abrams has had a solid season to secure the shortstop job. Ruiz hasn’t broken through, but he’ll get every opportunity behind the plate after last winter’s $50MM extension that runs through 2030.
Riley Adams is a good complementary backstop, so there’s no need to add a catcher. They’ll likely look to bring in infield help around Abrams. They’ve closed the season giving regular run to Dominic Smith, Luis García and Ildemaro Vargas around the infield. Smith has hit .254/.324/.361 in 571 plate appearances after signing a $2MM deal last offseason and could be non-tendered.
García turns 24 next May, and may be young enough to get another shot at second base. It might be his last chance. The left-handed hitter owns a .265/.299/.382 line with nine homers over 466 trips to the plate this season. He’s now a .265/.292/.394 hitter in 1229 PA and 320 MLB games over parts of four seasons. While García has plus contact skills, he hasn’t shown a discerning plate approach nor much power. The profile is built around a largely empty batting average right now. That’d be more tenable if García were a plus defender, but public metrics have graded him as a below-average second baseman over his career.
While García has youth and prospect pedigree on his side, there’s no argument for giving Vargas the third base job. The journeyman infielder has a .251/.305/.363 slash over a career-high 274 plate appearances. He’s a versatile defender with contact skills but limited offensive upside, much better suited for a utility role. He has held down the hot corner since the Nats traded Jeimer Candelario at the deadline. They’ll need to look outside the organization again this winter.
Last year’s signing of Candelario to a $5MM deal after he was non-tendered by Detroit worked out perfectly. They’ll have a hard time repeating that level of success — most free agent rebound fliers don’t bounce back the way Candelario did — but the Nationals will probably take a shot on a similar style of player. Candelario himself has likely played his way into a three-plus year deal that’ll take him out of Washington’s price range. Players like Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Joey Wendle should be available on a one-year pact, or Nick Senzel or Santiago Espinal could be non-tendered or traded for minimal return.
A one-year stopgap is probably all that’ll be required. Former first-round pick Brady House played his way to Double-A, where he hit .324/.358/.475 in 36 games at age 20. While it’s too soon to count on House as a key contributor for 2024, he could debut late next year and hopefully seize the third base job headed into ’25.
Washington also has high-end prospects approaching the big league outfield. James Wood (acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto deal) and the 2023 draft’s #2 overall pick Dylan Crews are widely regarded as top 10 minor league talents in the sport. Wood joined House in reaching Double-A before his 21st birthday. Wood ran an impressive .248/.344/.492 line with 18 homers across 87 games, and while the power-hitting outfielder struck out a fair amount, that’s to be expected for a 6’6″ hitter facing far older pitching. Crews shredded SEC arms at LSU and reached Double-A by the end of his draft year.
As with House, it’d be optimistic to expect either player at Nationals Park in the first half of next season. A promotion towards the middle or tail end of the year seems attainable, again offering hope they could be everyday players by 2025. It’s unlikely all three hit the ground running at the MLB level — even a lot of top prospects struggle out of the gate — but it’s an enviable collection of approaching talent.
When Wood and Crews arrive, they’d likely join Lane Thomas in the everyday outfield. The 28-year-old owns a .270/.319/.472 slash with 27 homers through 658 trips to the plate. He has destroyed left-handed pitching while hitting at a league average clip versus righties. While Thomas may be more of a complementary piece on a first-division club, he has proven an excellent find for Washington — which acquired him from the Cardinals for the final half-season of Jon Lester’s career in 2021.
Thomas is under arbitration control through 2025. His name surfaced in trade speculation this summer, though there’s no indication the Nats got all that close to making a deal. While they’ll surely find interest again, he doesn’t seem any more likely to move next winter than he did at the deadline. The organization’s long-term financial slate is clear enough that Thomas makes sense as an extension candidate. A guarantee in the $25-30MM range that buys out his remaining two arbitration seasons and first free agent year (2026) with a club option for a second could be mutually beneficial. It’d lock in some financial certainty for a relative late bloomer while ensuring Thomas doesn’t hit free agency before Washington is ready to contend.
As with third base, the Nats will probably bring in a veteran outfielder to hold the fort for a season. Former top prospect Victor Robles has missed the bulk of the year and seems a non-tender possibility. Neither Alex Call nor Jake Alu have provided any offense. Stone Garrett was a solid right-handed platoon option but suffered a gruesome leg injury that ended his season. Jacob Young doesn’t bring much offensive upside to the table in center field.
Washington guaranteed Corey Dickerson $2.25MM to add a veteran bat to the outfield last offseason. They’ll probably aim a little higher this time around. The likes of Hunter Renfroe and Adam Duvall could secure an annual salary in the $6-10MM range (perhaps for two years in Duvall’s case). Ramón Laureano or Seth Brown could be available following a non-tender. A corner outfield acquisition could take some DH at-bats from Joey Meneses — who has hit at a league average level in his follow-up to an excellent small-sample showing as a 30-year-old rookie — if Wood or Crews force their way to the big leagues early on.
There should generally be some short-term flexibility for Rizzo and his front office. Strasburg, Corbin, Williams and Ruiz are the only players with guaranteed contracts for next season. They have a deep class of arbitration-eligible players but none who are going to break the bank individually.
It’s less clear if there’s any appetite for a notable multi-year commitment. The franchise’s financial picture has been a question for a few seasons. The MASN rights dispute with the Orioles interfered with the Lerner family’s efforts to sell the club last year. It’s possible the Lerners again try to explore offers, though the TV situation isn’t much clearer now than it was 12 months ago.
The organization has sliced player payroll over the past few years. That’s standard procedure for a team amidst a rebuild, yet the ownership uncertainty takes on more significance as the club gets closer to contention. While the Strasburg and Ruiz contracts are the only ones running beyond next season, they’re on the hook for deferred payments of $15MM annually to Max Scherzer through 2028 and owe Corbin another $10MM in deferred salary over two more seasons. Strasburg’s contract won’t be paid in full until 2030.
Against those financial questions, the roster is beginning to take shape. The Nationals could have a viable position player core in place by 2025 depending on the progressions of Crews, Wood and House (as well as Abrams and Ruiz at the big league level). The pitching is less impressive overall, though Gray, Gore and Cavalli offer some intriguing individual pieces. Washington isn’t ready to compete yet, but things could be a lot more exciting at this time next year.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Nationals-centric chat on 9-26-23. Click here to view the transcript.
Offseason Outlook Chat Transcript: Kansas City Royals
MLBTR is holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams as the offseason nears. In conjunction with yesterday’s Royals Offseason Outlook, Steve Adams hosted a Royals-centric chat this morning. Click here to read the transcript!
The Opener: Gray, NL Wild Card, Offseason Outlook
On the final Tuesday of the 2023 regular season, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. Gray exits with injury:
Rangers right-hander Jon Gray exited yesterday’s start against the Angels after six innings due to what the club termed as right wrist tightness. Per MLB.com, the team described the move as precautionary. Still, the injury surely raises some concerns for Rangers fans as they look ahead to the postseason. With Max Scherzer likely out until 2024, Texas will have to rely on either Gray or right-hander Dane Dunning to take the ball for their third game of the postseason behind lefty Jordan Montgomery and veteran Nathan Eovaldi. With Gray seemingly not at full health, the role could be handed to Dunning. The two arms have posted similar results throughout the year, with Dunning’s 3.88 ERA barely outclassing Gray’s 4.12 figure. Despite those solid season-long numbers, both hurlers have struggled badly recently with ERAs over 6.00 in their last seven starts.
2. NL Wild Card race tightens:
The race for the last two NL Wild Card spots is headed for a photo finish. The Diamondbacks and Cubs are currently tied with identical 82-74 records in the last two spots, with the Marlins (81-75) sitting one game out and the Reds (80-77) on the periphery of contention as well. The Cubs have the toughest schedule of the four teams remaining, drawing the Braves and Brewers for their final two series of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks figure to face the White Sox before a tough regular season finale against the Astros. The Reds and Marlins have easier roads ahead of them, with Cincinnati facing the Guardians and Cardinals while Miami opposes the Mets and Pirates.
With the standings so close even as the season comes down to the wire, it’s worth noting the tiebreaker situations facing the teams involved. All three of the Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds hold the season series record tiebreaker over the Cubs, while the Marlins hold the tiebreaker over Arizona and Cincinnati as well. The Reds also hold the tiebreaker over the DBacks, meaning that if all four teams finished with identical records, the Marlins and Reds would make the postseason while Arizona and Chicago would head home.
3. 2023-24 Offseason Outlook series begins:
As many teams outside of the playoff picture are looking ahead to the 2023-24 offseason, MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series has returned. The annual offseason series kicked off yesterday with installments covering a two of the first organizations to be eliminated from postseason contention this year in the Rockies and Royals. In addition, MLBTR’s Steve Adams will be hosting a Royals-centric live chat at 9:00am CT this morning in conjunction with last night’s installment. You can click here to submit a question in advance, or check back later to participate live once the chat begins.
Padres Plan To Reduce Payroll To Around $200MM; Front Office Changes Possible
An Opening Day payroll of just under $249MM and some aggressive acquisitions of star players meant that the Padres were fully expecting a championship in 2023, but San Diego has instead posted only a 77-79 record, and the season’s final week begins with the Padres still in mathematical contention for a wild card slot by only the faintest of margins. It has been an unusual season in many ways at Petco Park, as such analytical numbers as the Padres’ +91 run differential (the 10th best in baseball), their 7-22 record in one-run games, and unfathomable 0-12 mark in extra-innings games all suggest that the Padres might simply be one of the unluckiest clubs in recent memory.
However, the organization doesn’t seem to be writing off 2023 to just misfortune, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that the Padres are planning a different strategy for next season. This includes “player commitments of around $200MM,” as Acee writes that the payroll cut is “in part because they are out of compliance with MLB regulations regarding their debt service ratio.”
Less spending isn’t necessarily a huge surprise, as the Friars have a lot of money coming off the books anyway in terms of pending free agents and several contractual options and may or may not be exercised. However, what might count as eye-opening is the fact that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller might not necessarily be back, as “no decisions have been made regarding who will be running or helping to run the Padres’ baseball operations department beyond this season.”
Preller has been running the Padres’ front office since August 2014, a tenure that has consisted of an initial spending splurge for immediate success that didn’t pan out, followed by a rebuilding period, and then San Diego’s current state of sky-high spending. The results have been mixed at best, as the Friars have posted winning records in only two of the last eight seasons and also might not reach the .500 mark this year. The Padres’ two winning seasons under Preller (2020 and 2022) resulted in trips to the playoffs, with San Diego winning a series in the expanded 2020 bracket before falling to the Cardinals in the NLDS. Last year’s playoff run saw the Padres eliminate both the Mets and the arch-rival Dodgers before eventually falling to the Phillies in the NLCS — San Diego’s first trip to baseball’s final four since 1998.
The inconsistency on the field could well be related to what’s happening behind the scenes. Last week, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Dennis Lin published a fascinating look at the dysfunctional elements of the Padres organization, with plenty of criticism directed towards Preller. As Rosenthal and Lin wrote, Preller’s “default setting of simply trying to outwork the competition, however, has not always sat well with managers, players, coaches and other team officials….Many also criticize him for poor communication and a lack of feel.”
This style of management (or micromanagement, in his critics’ view) might have resulted in the revolving door of managers and coaches during Preller’s tenure, and there is currently “a major disconnect” between Prelller and current Padres manager Bob Melvin. This isn’t the only time that internal discord has been a public problem in San Diego, as the club’s collapse in the second half of the 2021 was largely attributed to a rift between the players and then-manager Jayce Tingler.
With such issues surfacing for a second time in three seasons, it could be that ownership has decided that a larger culture change if required, even if that means firing Preller with three years still remaining on his current contract. Despite the Padres’ struggles this year, there had been more rumblings over Melvin being fired than Preller, especially after team chairman Peter Seidler gave Preller a full endorsement back in July.
However, Acee notes that “the path the team travels in many matters is currently be being charted by more people than usual, including members of Seidler Equity Partners,” as Seidler himself “remains involved but not nearly as intimately, as he recovers from a medical issue.” It could be that the other members of the partnership group are less enamored with Preller than Seidler is, or it could be that Seidler (who is the largest single equity holder in the team) has decided himself that a change is necessary since the Padres simply never got things turned around this year.
The Padres’ payroll has exploded since Seidler took control of the club in 2020, and the chairman has been pretty forthright about his stance that increased spending will translate into consistent winning. As such, a winning team and the subsequent higher national profile will lead to higher revenues — attendance, merchandise, TV ratings, etc. — that will help offset said spending.
How sustainable this tactic is over the long term has been a looming question in San Diego for the last two years, and the debt service issue Acee referenced could indicate that the Padres perhaps saw 2022-23 as their true all-in years before having to inevitably scale things back to some extent in 2024. Falling so drastically in an “all in” year could be why Preller is now facing more scrutiny from upper management, and Acee also writes that missing out on the postseason cost the franchise at least an extra $10MM in playoff revenue.
Whomever is running the front office will have plenty of decisions to make, especially in regards to how to address this upcoming payroll cut. Roster Resource projects that the Padres have just under $128.5MM on the books for 2024, though that doesn’t include the arbitration-eligible players — most notably Juan Soto, who made $23MM this year and will earn another hefty raise in his final arb year before free agency in the 2024-25 offseason. Whether or not to trade Soto this winter, keep him for 2024 and let him walk in free agency, or try and retain Soto by adding another major long-term extension to the Padres’ ledger are the primary choices facing the team in regards to the star outfielder.
Trent Grisham and Tim Hill are two other arb-eligible players with far lower price tags than Soto, though Acee wonders if either could be non-tendered as the Friars look to cut costs. Acee also notes that “it is virtually certain that” pending free agents Josh Hader and Blake Snell won’t be retained, and the Padres face other questions in regards to retaining either Nick Martinez and/or Michael Wacha on two-year, $32MM extensions. Seth Lugo is likely also headed for the open market rather than exercise his $7.5MM player option for 2024.
Despite all of these portents of change, there doesn’t appear to be any shift in San Diego’s overall direction, or their desire to quickly return to contention in 2024. None of the core group of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Ha-Seong Kim, Joe Musgrove, and others appear to be in danger of being traded, as their larger contracts should all be able to comfortably fit within the framework of a $200MM payroll.
However, while San Diego has plenty of roster needs to address, the payroll reduction could mean that the Padres won’t be nearly as aggressive in pursuing top-level free agents as they have in recent years. Trading Soto would be one obvious way of unloading salary while still bringing back some (less expensive) win-now help for 2024, and the Padres might still be busy on the trade front rather than looking to splurge on the open market. With all that awaits the Padres in what might be another newsworthy offseason, Preller’s fate might need to be decided relatively soon, so that a possible new PBO/GM can get moving quickly on winter plans.
Marlins Outright Chi Chi Gonzalez
Marlins right-hander Chi Chi González went unclaimed on waivers over the weekend, per the transaction log at MLB.com. He was sent outright to Triple-A Jacksonville.
It’s the second time this season in which González cleared waivers after Miami designated him for assignment. Each of his major league stints was rather brief. He spent eight days on the active roster in May and three days with the big league club last week. Skip Schumaker has called upon him three times, with González allowing three runs over 3 2/3 frames.
The former first-round pick has spent the majority of the season starting games in Jacksonville. He has logged 121 2/3 innings over 24 appearances, working to a 6.07 ERA in a hitter-friendly Triple-A setting. González has thrown strikes for the Jumbo Shrimp but has only fanned 13% of opponents at the top minor league level.
González forewent an opportunity to test free agency when Miami outrighted him earlier in the year. He has that option again, though he’ll presumably stick with the Fish at this point. The 31-year-old will be a minor league free agent at the beginning of the offseason unless Miami adds him back to the roster.