Previewing The 2023-24 Free Agent Class: Righty Relievers

MLBTR’s position by position preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relievers. While there’s no one at the top of this group who’ll rival Josh Hader among the southpaws, there are a number of impressive middle to late inning arms who’ll hit the market.

Note: only players who have been on an MLB roster in 2023 are included. Ages listed are for the 2024 season.

High-Leverage/Potential Setup Arms

Hicks is both the youngest and hardest-throwing name on this year’s bullpen market. The Cardinals couldn’t seem to make up their mind whether they wanted him to be a starter or reliever, but he’s having his best year to date in the latter of those two roles. In 63 2/3 innings between the Cards and Blue Jays, Hicks has logged a 3.11 ERA with a 28.8% strikeout rate, 10.9% walk rate and massive 58.5% ground-ball rate. His strikeouts are down to a roughly average 23.5% since being traded, but his 7.1% walk rate since the trade would also be a career-best.

Hicks’ typical 100 mph sinker has dropped to an average of, ahem, “only” 99.3 mph with the Jays after sitting at 100.7 mph in St. Louis prior to the swap. It’s still absolutely overpowering velocity, and the dip in heat feels like a worthwhile trade-off if he can keep his command at this level, especially since his ground-ball rate remains unchanged. Hicks only just turned 27 this month, so even a three-year deal would conclude just weeks after he turns 30.

He’s already had Tommy John surgery, so there’s some injury risk, but his unrivaled youth and power arsenal will serve him well. Hicks will be among the top three to four options on the market this year.

While Jimenez isn’t as young as Hicks, he’s still atypical for a free agent reliever. He’ll play next season at age 29 and has a shot at a three-year pact coming off consecutive sub-4.00 ERA showings. Jimenez has turned in 54 2/3 innings of 3.13 ERA ball in his first season as a Brave after an offseason trade from the Tigers.

With a fastball that lands in the 95-96 MPH range, Jimenez has consistently missed bats. He has fanned more than 30% of opponents in consecutive years and racked up swinging strikes on 15.4% of his pitches. Since an uncharacteristic spike in walks in 2021, he has limited free passes to around a 6% clip in each of the last two seasons.

The only moderate area of concern lies in Jimenez’s batted ball profile. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher, which makes him susceptible to home runs. He’s allowing homers at a higher than average 1.48 HR/9 clip on the year and has allowed 1.35 homers per nine for his career. This year’s league average for relievers is 1.10 HR/9.

Johnson has proven one of the best deadline acquisitions of the summer. The right-hander carried a 6.00 ERA over 39 frames for the Rockies. The Braves acquired him for a pair of minor league pitchers and he’s now a key performer in their quality relief corps.

Since the trade, Johnson owns a 0.83 ERA across 21 2/3 innings. He’s keeping the ball on the ground at a massive 58% clip and striking out just under a third of opponents. He has more than halved his walk rate from 13.1% in Colorado to 6.1% for the Braves. Behind a 96 MPH heater and a power curveball in the mid-80s, he’s getting whiffs on almost 17% of offerings.

Johnson will be 33 next May and lost a good chunk of the 2022 season to forearm tendinitis. That could keep the offers limited to two years, but he should secure one of the stronger annual salaries in the relief class thanks to his dominant second half.

Lopez, 30 in January, doesn’t miss the “hardest-throwing” distinction among this year’s class by much. The longtime White Sox hurler has averaged 98.4 mph on his heater in 2023 and is in his third straight season with a mid-3.00s ERA (or better). In 64 frames spread across the Sox, Angels and Guardians, Lopez has a 3.38 ERA, 30.1% strikeout rate and 12.4% walk rate. That strikeout rate is the best of his career, but Lopez’s walk rate is more than double the 5% at which it sat in 2021-22 combined.

Somewhat interestingly, Lopez has done his best work of the season since being claimed by Cleveland, where he’s throwing his changeup more than twice as much as he did with the ChiSox. Perhaps that’s small sample noise — or perhaps it’s a recipe for success. Regardless, a 30-year-old righty who sits 98-99, regularly hits triple digits, and boasts a 3.18 ERA over his past three seasons and 187 innings isn’t going to lack interest. Lopez is going to get a multi-year deal — likely at a premium annual rate.

Stephenson has gone from unheralded journeyman acquisition to high-octane arm within a manner of months. He owned a 5.14 ERA in 14 appearances for the Pirates when he was dealt to the Rays for infielder Alika Williams in a June 2 trade. Since landing in Tampa Bay, he’s been one of the best relievers on the planet.

Over 36 1/3 frames as a Ray, Stephenson carries a 2.48 ERA. He’s striking out an eye-popping 41.8% of batters faced while walking just 6% of opponents. His dominance on a pitch-for-pitch basis is laughable. Stephenson has gotten a swinging strike on 28.2% of his pitches as a Ray and 24.1% of his offerings this season overall. Not only is that the highest rate of any pitcher with 50+ innings, it’s more than three percentage points clear of second-place Felix Bautista.

How will the market value a pitcher who has been arguably the game’s most dominant reliever for three and a half months after a career of inconsistency? Pitchers like Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero have landed three-year contracts largely behind one platform season that was less impressive than Stephenson’s last few months. The Padres went to four years and $34MM for Drew Pomeranz on the heels of a dominant second half a few seasons back.

Veterans with Closing Experience

Boxberger was on the injured list from May through September due to a forearm strain. He returned to pitch 5 1/3 innings, allowing two runs before going back on the injured list with another forearm strain. Boxberger has a long track record and was excellent as recently as 2020-22 (3.13 ERA in 164 2/3 innings). He’s averaged a career-low 91.4 mph on his heater this year while battling injuries, however. Between that velocity dip, his age and this year’s forearm strains, he’ll be limited to short-term interest.

Floro has an average strikeout rate, better-than-average command, a plus 54.4% grounder rate and a low 87.1 mph average exit velocity this season, but he’s still sporting a 5.59 ERA in large part due to a fluky .401 average on balls in play. He’s been used as a closer and setup man in recent seasons. Fielding-independent metrics still like his 2023 work (2.96 FIP, 3.35 SIERA) even if his results are a far cry from the 2.85 ERA he posted from 2020-22.

Kimbrel is the top pitcher in this group. Signed to a $10MM guarantee last winter, the nine-time All-Star has saved 23 games in 27 tries for the Phillies. He owns a 3.27 ERA over 66 frames while striking out just under a third of opposing hitters. Kimbrel is picking up swinging strikes on 13.5% of his offerings and averaging 96 MPH on his fastball.

While he’s clearly not the unhittable force he was at his peak, Kimbrel is still an above-average MLB reliever. He’ll hit free agency off a better platform year than he did a season ago, when he’d posted a 3.75 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate for the Dodgers. A similar contract to the one he landed from Philadelphia should be the floor. His camp could take aim at a two-year contract, as Kenley Jansen secured last offseason, albeit at a likely lesser average annual value than Jansen’s $16MM.

May has worked to a 3.43 ERA and saved 20 games in 44 2/3 innings for an MLB-worst A’s team. His strikeout rate is down to a career-low 19.1% clip, while his swinging strike percentage has dropped from 13.3% to 10.4%. May spent a month on the injured list early in the season due to anxiety. While he has a 2.09 ERA in 39 appearances since returning, that hasn’t been supported by middling strikeout (19.8%) and walk (12.3%) numbers. Perhaps a rebuilding team will be willing to give him another run in the ninth inning; if he signs with a contender, he’d likely move to a lower-leverage role.

Robertson posted a 2.05 ERA while saving 14 games with seven holds in 40 contests for the Mets. He hasn’t maintained that pace since a deadline trade to the Marlins, allowing nearly six earned runs per nine. Robertson hasn’t thrown strikes consistently in South Florida, though he has continued to miss bats at a high level. The Fish pulled him from the ninth inning last month but have kept deploying him in high-leverage situations.

The veteran’s overall season line is still solid. He carries a 3.18 ERA with an above-average 27.7% strikeout rate and a tolerable 9.6% walk percentage. While his stint with the Marlins hasn’t gone as expected, he has an established career track record as one of the game’s better late-game arms.

Middle Relievers

After an up-and-down tenure with the Red Sox, Brasier was released in May and embarked on a radical turnaround upon signing with the Dodgers. In 36 2/3 frames with L.A., he’s posted a sensational 0.74 ERA with a markedly improved 26.7% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate. He won’t sustain a .182 average on balls in play, but Brasier went from yielding a sky-high 92.4 mph average exit velocity with the Red Sox to just 87.1 mph as a Dodger. He’ll have no problem finding a big league deal this winter — perhaps even a two-year pact.

A quietly strong and versatile member of the Giants’ bullpen, Brebbia has worked to a 3.30 ERA in 103 2/3 innings dating back to 2022. That includes “starting” 20 games as an opener and also picking up 24 holds. This year’s 29.9% strikeout rate is a career-high. A right lat strain wiped out more than two months of his 2023 season, but he returned earlier this month and is on track to finish out the season healthy.

A comeback liner struck Chavez in the shin back in June and wound up causing a microfracture that kept him off the field more than two months. He’s tossed 2 2/3 shutout innings since returning and has now allowed just one run in his past 21 2/3 frames. Chavez found new life in his late 30s, pitching to a 2.81 ERA with a 26.4% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate in 134 2/3 innings from 2021-23. If he wants to keep going, this year’s 1.42 ERA will garner plenty of interest — though another stint with the Braves might work best for all parties.

Cisnero was excellent for the Tigers from 2020 through early July of the current season (2.77 ERA, 38 holds, 5 saves in 149 1/3 innings). He was rocked for five runs on July 7, however, and he’s yet to rediscover his form. Cisnero wasn’t traded at the deadline and passed through waivers unclaimed in August. He has a 10.41 ERA in his past 23 1/3 innings.

Devenski has split his time between the Angels and Rays, working to a 4.81 ERA across 39 1/3 innings. He has a decent 24.6% strikeout rate and a strong 6.8% walk percentage that could secure him a big league contract on the heels of a minor league pact a year ago.

Farmer parlayed a minor league deal with the Reds in the 2021-22 offseason into a regular role in David Bell’s bullpen. He’s pitched 120 innings with a 3.98 ERA, slightly above-average 24.4% strikeout rate and higher-than-average 10.6% walk rate over the past two seasons. He’s been a durable middle reliever with a 4.15 ERA or better in five of the past six seasons — the lone exception being a 6.37 mark in 35 innings with the ’21 Tigers.

After a tough start to the season, the former AL Rookie of the Year has pitched to a 2.48 ERA over his past 36 1/3 innings — dating back to late May. Fulmer is missing bats at career-high levels (27.4% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging-strike rate) but issuing walks at the highest clip of his career as well (11.8%). Fulmer has closed and worked in setup roles since moving to the bullpen after injuries derailed his career as a starter.

Garcia averages just under 98 MPH on a bowling ball sinker, allowing him to run huge grounder rates (including a 61.6% clip this season). His strikeout rate has dropped six percentage points to a below-average 20.5% clip, however, and he’s allowing 4.17 earned runs per nine.

Maton has turned in consecutive sub-4.00 seasons while topping 60 innings for the Astros. He’s striking out an above-average 26.6% of opponents against a 9.5% walk rate. Maton does an excellent job avoiding hard contact and typically generates solid results. He could find a multi-year deal as a result, although his 89.1 MPH average fastball velocity and heavy reliance on a low-70s curveball makes him an atypical target among a market that usually values high-octane relief arms.

After signing a minor league contract a season ago, Middleton has pitched his way to a guaranteed deal this time around. He has tallied 50 innings between the White Sox and Yankees, working to a 3.08 ERA with an excellent 31.3% strikeout percentage and a massive 55.9% grounder rate. He’s generating swinging strikes on 17.2% of his offerings. Middleton had posted an ERA around 5.00 in each of the three seasons preceding this one and still has spotty command. Neither Chicago nor New York plugged him directly into the late-inning mix. He’s one of the younger pitchers in the free agent class and has a rare combination of whiffs and ground-balls though.

The 40 innings Miller has thrown for the Dodgers ranks as his second-highest total since 2016. The former All-Star starter has bounced into journeyman relief mode over the last half-decade. Miller has done well in L.A., pitching to a 1.80 ERA across 40 innings. Opponents aren’t going to continue hitting under .200 on balls in play and his 12.2% walk rate is concerning. Miller has fanned upwards of 26% of batters faced after deploying a new split-finger offering this season.

Leone has appeared for three teams in 2023 and eight in his big league career overall. He continues to intrigue with a mid-90s heater and a pair of swing-and-miss breaking pitches, running a massive 16.1% swinging strike percentage in 50 2/3 frames this year. The whiffs haven’t translated to good results, however, as he’s allowing just under five earned runs per nine. He issues a lot of walks and has been extremely homer-prone in 2023. There might still be enough in the raw arsenal to secure a big league deal.

Pagan had bounced around the league before finding a bit of stability with the Twins. Minnesota stuck with him after a rough first season and has been rewarded with a solid ’23 campaign. Pagan has worked to a 3.12 ERA over 66 1/3 innings, including a sterling 2.10 mark in the second half. An extreme fly-ball pitcher, Pagan has struggled with home runs in his career. The longball hasn’t been an issue this season, as he’s allowing just 0.68 per nine innings. He’ll have a hard time sustaining that over multiple years, but he averages nearly 96 MPH on his fastball and consistently runs average or better strikeout and walk numbers.

Stanek is one of the hardest throwers in the sport, averaging upwards of 98 MPH on his heater. He has always had below-average control but typically misses enough bats to compensate for the walks. Stanek’s strikeout rate is down to a fine but unexceptional 23.7% this season, posting a 3.99 ERA over 49 2/3 frames in the process. The Astros have used him mostly in low-leverage situations after leaning on him as a key relief weapon when he posted a 1.15 ERA a year ago. While his stock is down relative to a season ago, he’s still a lock for a big league deal and among the higher-upside plays in the middle relief group.

The well-traveled Stratton has been part of deadline deals in two consecutive summers. He has split the 2023 campaign between the Cardinals and Rangers, turning in a cumulative 3.62 ERA while logging 82 innings of relief. Stratton is a middle innings workhorse who has fanned a solid 24.4% of opponents against a modest 7.5% walk rate. Despite a dip in his swinging strikes this season, he’ll get a major league contract.

VerHagen is wrapping up a two-year contract with the Cardinals after spending a couple seasons in Japan. While his huge ground-ball numbers in NPB didn’t translate back to the majors, he has posted a 3.97 ERA with nearly average strikeout, walk and grounder rates across 59 innings this season.

Starter/Relief Hybrids

Junis has rather quietly been a solid long relief option for the Giants. He has tallied 86 innings over 40 appearances, working to a 3.87 ERA with a strong 26.2% strikeout rate and a minuscule 5.7% walk percentage. His fastball is averaging a career-best 94 MPH and he’s getting swinging strikes on 11.3% of his offerings. Junis started 17 games a season ago and pitched well enough that another club could consider him in either role. He has a case for a two-year deal.

Fujinami began his MLB career working out of the A’s rotation. He posted dismal results and was quickly pushed to the bullpen. Fujinami has found a little more success in relief, though he still carries a 5.16 ERA in 59 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. He has huge arm strength, averaging north of 99 MPH on his heater since being traded from Oakland to the Orioles. It’s an intriguing arsenal, but he has yet to assuage the concerns about his command that were present during his career in Japan.

Club Options

The Marlins are going to decline an $8.25MM option in favor of a $2MM buyout. The former All-Star closer pitched to a 5.48 ERA in 24 games for the Fish. He underwent season-ending hip surgery in July.

The Jays will have to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $27MM team option. If they decline, Green would have a $6.25MM player option for next season. If he declines, Toronto could circle back on a two-year, $21MM pact.

They’re working on predictably limited information, as Green didn’t make it back from last year’s Tommy John procedure until this month. His mid-90s velocity is back and he has a 13:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 10 innings. While Green looks much like he did with the Yankees before the surgery, it’s hard to make a definitive conclusion based on three weeks of work.

Hendriks will likely miss the entire 2024 season after requiring Tommy John surgery at the beginning of August. The White Sox will buy him out, thereby paying what would’ve been a $15MM salary in installments over the next decade instead of next year. As a free agent, Hendriks could find interest on a two-year pact from a team hoping he can recapture his elite form in 2025.

The Dodgers hold a $6.5MM option on Hudson which they’ll buy out. He has been limited to three appearances — first by rehab from last summer’s ACL tear, then by an MCL sprain in his opposite knee. Hudson could return for the Dodgers’ playoff run, though that won’t change the calculus on the option.

The Dodgers hold a $9.5MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $8.5MM gap seems large enough for L.A. to buy Kelly out, especially since he missed a month in the second half with forearm inflammation. Kelly has massive strikeout (35.4%) and ground-ball (58.8%) numbers behind a fastball that sits north of 99 MPH. The bottom line results haven’t followed, as he has posted a 4.34 ERA on the heels of a 6.08 showing for the White Sox a season ago.

Texas holds a $6.25MM option or a $750K buyout on Leclerc. He’s an erratic but overall effective arm in the late innings. Through 53 2/3 frames, he owns a 2.85 ERA while fanning just under 28% of opposing hitters. The price point is modest enough the Rangers seem likely to bring Leclerc back, though his inconsistent control suggests he’s probably better served for a middle innings role if Texas deepens their relief group this winter.

The Padres have to decide whether to trigger a two-year, $32MM option at season’s end. If they decline, Martinez has a two-year, $16MM player option. With San Diego using him largely in a medium-leverage relief role, they seem unlikely to lock in a $16MM annual salary for two seasons. Yet Martinez has been effective enough he could try to top the $8MM salaries and/or secure a rotation spot in free agency.

Martinez has logged 105 1/3 innings through 62 appearances (eight starts). He’s allowing 3.59 earned runs per nine with average strikeout and walk marks and a lofty 54.1% ground-ball percentage.

The Braves hold a $6MM option with a $1MM buyout. The $5MM difference is probably beyond what they’ll want to pay, as the veteran hurler has had a middling season. He owns a 4.30 ERA across 58 2/3 frames. His strikeout rate — which sat at 27.6% during his first year in Atlanta — is down to 17.5%. McHugh has been out since early September with shoulder inflammation; he’s on a rehab stint and could return for the playoffs if the Braves want to carry him on the postseason roster.

The Dodgers signed Reyes to a free agent deal in hopes he’d return to form after a 2022 season wrecked by shoulder injuries. Unfortunately, he had a setback and underwent another season-ending surgery in June without making an appearance. The Dodgers will decline a $3MM option.

The Dodgers have a club option valued anywhere between $1-7MM. He has been out the entire season after undergoing shoulder surgery last November. It’s tough to project the Dodgers’ decision until the option price is finalized.

Atlanta holds a $5.75MM option that comes with a $1.25MM buyout, making it a $4.5MM decision. Yates has returned after a couple seasons lost to injury to log 58 1/3 innings of 3.24 ERA ball while striking out over 32% of opponents. His velocity is back at pre-surgery levels but his command is not, as he’s walking nearly 15% of batters faced. The price point could be modest enough for the Braves to retain Yates in hopes he dials in the strike-throwing as he gets further removed from surgery.

Player Options

Neris threw 110 innings over the first two seasons of his free agent contract with the Astros, converting an $8.5MM club option into a player provision in the process (assuming he passes an end-of-year physical). Even at 35, he could decline that in search of another two-year guarantee. Neris has worked to a 1.81 ERA in 64 2/3 innings this season, working mostly in high-leverage spots. He’s picking up swinging strikes on over 14% of his offerings for a second consecutive year despite losing a tick off his average fastball speed.

Ottavino has a $6.75MM option on his contract with the Mets. The veteran righty suggested to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com last month he was likely to exercise that provision. He has a 2.82 ERA over 59 2/3 innings, although his strikeout rate has dropped more than six percentage points relative to last season.

Low-Cost Veterans and Minor League Depth (listed alphabetically)

Previous installments: catcherfirst basesecond basethird baseshortstopcorner outfieldcenter field, designated hitter, starting pitcherlefty relief.

Mike Trout Intends To Play For Angels In 2024

The Angels are completing their eighth consecutive losing season, and might lose one of the game’s iconic players in Shohei Ohtani to free agency.  Ohtani’s potential departure adds extra sting to this latest disappointing year in Anaheim, and it has led to some questions regarding the club’s other icon in Mike Trout.  The outfielder said in early September that he was planning to speak with upper management after the season about “the direction of everything and what the plan is,” and Trout shed some more light on those post-season discussions when speaking with reporters today, describing them as routine.

I go through this every year,” Trout told the Los Angeles Times’ Sarah Valenzuela and other reporters.  “There’s private conversations I have with Arte [Angels owner Arte Moreno] and John [team president John Carpino].  And like I said, I’m doing the same thing I did the last, what, 13 years?  Going into the offseason, clearing my mind and getting ready for spring and wearing an Angels uniform in spring.”

Specifically noting his Spring Training plans seemed to be Trout’s way of downplaying talk that he could request a trade.  The Angels’ lack of success has led to plenty of speculative trade buzz around Trout for the last several years, and yet there has never been any indication that the club is open to moving the outfielder, or that Trout himself would welcome or seek out a deal.  Trout has some control over his fate via the full no-trade clause included in the ten-year, $360MM extension he signed with Los Angeles in March 2019, so the Halos wouldn’t be able to deal him without his permission.

I got seven years left on the contract.  I know there’s a lot of speculation out there….Nothing’s changed,” Trout said.

Beyond the Angels’ losing records, the last few seasons have been doubly challenging for Trout from a health perspective.  A series of separate injuries have limited Trout’s playing time to some extent in each of the last seven seasons, though since Opening Day 2021, he has played in only 237 of a possible 486 games.  A nagging calf strain cost Trout most of the 2021 campaign, he played in just 119 games in 2022 due to back problems, and a hamate bone surgery limited Trout’s 2023 tally to 82 games, and only one appearance after July 3.

It’s tough. It’s been hard on me….I just want to be out there and injuries suck,” Trout said today.  “All the hard work and stuff and just freak stuff happens.  But [I’m] trying to stay positive.”

Coming into this season, I think the biggest thing was trying to be healthy and that was my goal.  Went into the offseason with a plan, hired a lot of people to work on my body.  My body felt great and a freak thing happened.  Broke my hand.  Came back probably sooner than I should have, but I wanted to be out there with the guys.”

With a .283/.382/579 slash line and 66 homers in 1007 plate appearances from 2021-23, Trout is still clearly one of the game’s best players when he has been able to stay on the field, which only adds to the frustration for Trout himself, the fanbase, and everyone in the Angels organization.  Over six seasons with both Ohtani and Trout as teammates, there hasn’t been very much time when both players have been healthy and in top form.  Of course, even if Trout and Ohtani had been firing on all cylinders, it is fair to wonder if that still would’ve been enough to get the Angels into contention given the consistent issues throughout the rest of the roster.

The Angels are expected to bid on Ohtani to some extent this winter, though it remains to be seen if Ohtani will leave for a larger offer and/or simply a team that can offer a better chance to win.  Should he indeed leave, it remains to be seen if the Halos would consider a rebuild for the first time in Moreno’s two decades as owner, or if Moreno would order the front office to reload for another shot at contending in 2024.

Moving Trout would only seem like a reality if Los Angeles will attempt a full teardown, and such a deal would be tricky to manage even beyond Trout’s no-trade clause.  On the one hand, there would undoubtedly be interest in a superstar like Trout, and some teams might feel their training staffs might be better equipped to help him stay healthy.  On the other, Trout also turned 32 last month, is owed $248.45MM over the next seven years, and is coming off three injury-plagued years — these factors are red flags for possible trade partners, and obstacles for the Angels in finding proper value back.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

In conjunction with this installment in our Offseason Outlook series, Steve Adams will be hosting a Royals-centric chat tomorrow morning at 9am CT. Click here to ask a question in advance, and be sure to check back to participate live!

The Royals haven’t had a winning record since their storybook World Series victory back in 2015. Their first season in the wake of Dayton Moore’s firing as president of baseball operations yielded more of the same dismal results. They’ve now lost 100-plus games in three of the past six seasons, and it’ll be incumbent upon J.J. Picollo to turn things around in his second year atop the baseball operations hierarchy.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Salvador Perez, C/DH: $44MM through 2025 (including buyout of 2026 club option)
  • Jordan Lyles, RHP: $8.5MM through 2024
  • Jake Brentz, LHP: $1.05MM through 2024 (Brentz will remain arb-eligible through 2026)

Additional Financial Commitments

Option Decisions

  • None

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Free Agents

While last offseason brought about sweeping change with the firing of Moore and hiring of manager Matt Quatraro, the 2023-24 offseason should be quieter in terms of such big-picture machinations. Picollo won’t be supplanted one year into his tenure, and the Royals aren’t going to move on from Quatraro after one tough season. It’s possible that Picollo will continue to make changes further down the baseball operations ladder, however. One such move is already in place, as The Athletic’s Keith Law recently reported that Kansas City is hiring former Braves scouting director Brian Bridges. Holding that position from 2015-18, Bridges oversaw high-profile selections of talents like Austin Riley, A.J. Minter and Michael Soroka, in addition to some late-round bullpen finds like Evan Phillips and Jacob Webb.

Improvements in the scouting and draft process are a long-term play, of course. In terms of more immediately righting the ship in Kansas City, there’s no shortage of work to do. Royals starting pitchers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA (5.16) and fifth-fewest innings (760 1/3). That ERA is practically an identical match with a 5.15 team bullpen ERA that ranks 28th in MLB.

At the plate, the Royals are 24th in the Majors with 651 runs scored. Their collective 6.9% walk rate is second-worst among all MLB teams, and Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the barrel in terms of batting average (.243, 21st in MLB), on-base percentage (.302, 27th), slugging percentage (.396, 23rd) and home runs (156, 26th).

Complicating this year’s dismal across-the-board performance is the fact that the Royals were relying heavily on young players they hope (or hoped) can bring the team back to relevance in the near future. Many of those players largely failed the test.

Bobby Witt Jr. has proven himself to be a cornerstone player at shortstop, belting 29 homers and swiping 48 bases while playing premium defense. Third baseman Maikel Garcia hasn’t hit for power — nor was he projected to — but has swiped 23 bags and played good defense at the hot corner. He’s put the ball in play enough to help overcome a below-average walk rate and looks like he can have a long-term role in the infield, be it as a regular or as someone who eventually shifts to a heavily used utility player between third base, shortstop and second base. Assuming Vinnie Pasquantino‘s recovery from surgery on a torn labrum in his right shoulder goes according to plan, he’ll be back at first base after hitting .272/.355/.444 in his first 133 MLB games.

With regard to the infielders, that’s about the extent of the development. Pasquantino’s injury opened more time for fellow first baseman Nick Pratto, but he’s yet to carry his huge 2021-22 minor league production over to the big leagues. Michael Massey has popped 14 homers, but his .225/.270/.375 slash is nowhere near strong enough to seize the second base job. Infield/outfield hybrids like Nate Eaton and Samad Taylor did not produce in small samples.

The Royals could well keep things in house here, as it’s a dismal market for second base options. Old friend Whit Merrifield presents the best potential option in free agency, but he’ll likely garner interest from contending clubs (assuming either he or the Jays decline half of his 2024 mutual option). The rest of the market is comprised of rebound candidates (e.g. Amed Rosario, Kolten Wong) or utility players (e.g. Enrique Hernandez, Donovan Solano). The trade market presents alternatives, but Kansas City may not have the pitching coveted by teams with infield talent to market such as the Cardinals (Nolan Gorman) or Reds (Jonathan India).

We’ll get to that lack of pitching in a bit, but the rest of the lineup also bears mentioning. The Royals don’t have a single outfielder who they can count on as a well-rounded performer heading into the 2024 season. Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel have yet to hit big league pitching. Edward Olivares has provided roughly average offense at the plate but is not a strong defender. Catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez worked almost exclusively in the latter of those two roles this year, and while he’s having a big second half at the dish, he grades out as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the sport. Deadline pickup Nelson Velazquez has erupted with 14 homers in 131 plate appearances and surely locked in a job in the process — but even he grades as a sub-par defender.

The Royals should add at least one outfielder this offseason — if not two. As with second base, it’s a thin market. Kansas City isn’t going to play at the top of the market for Cody Bellinger and Teoscar Hernandez, so unless the plan is to offer rebound opportunities to a Hunter Renfroe or Joey Gallo, this could be another area to focus on in the trade market. Their 2022 acquisition of Waters has yet to pan out. Their deadline pickup of Velazquez has been outstanding so far. Targeting similar young outfielders lacking in clear paths to playing time with their current organizations could prove shrewd.

Even behind the plate, the outlook isn’t as strong as it once was. While Salvador Perez still carries plenty of name recognition, this year’s .252/.291/.419 batting line is nowhere near the .273/.311/.526 output he turned in from 2020-22. And Perez may be a five-time Gold Glove winner, but he hasn’t taken that award home since 2018 — in large part because his defense continues to wane. He’s thwarted just 14% of stolen base attempts against him this winter (league average is 21%), and Statcast pegs him below-average in terms of both blocking pitches in the dirt and framing pitches.

It’d frankly be surprising if Perez’s name didn’t pop up in a trade rumor or two this winter — he almost always does — but such talk is generally brought about by media speculation rather than earnest chances of him being moved. There’s never been any strong chance that Perez will actually be traded. The Royals love him — they named him just the fourth captain in team history — and Perez has 10-and-5 rights that grant him full veto power on any deal. Further, given the $44MM remaining on his contract and aforementioned decline on both sides of the ball, Perez simply doesn’t have the trade value many would assume based on his track record and name.

There’s also no clear immediate heir apparent to Perez, and thus no great urgency to move him. The use of Melendez almost exclusively in the outfield this year suggests the Royals don’t believe he’s a viable full-time option there. Twenty-eight-year-old Freddy Fermin could be an option to begin cutting into Perez’s workload after a nice rookie showing, but a broken finger ended his season. Pursuing some veteran catching depth, even if just on a minor league deal, seems wise.

The previously mentioned lack of pitching is the most glaring problem for Kansas City, particularly considering the heavy investment in college arms that the Royals hoped would fill out their pitching staff in the long run. Their ballyhooed 2018-20 selections of Brady Singer, Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Asa Lacy and Alec Marsh has yet to produce a clearly above-average starter. Singer has certainly looked the part at times, most notably in 2022, and he drew interest from the Reds (among others) at this year’s trade deadline despite some first-half struggles. His performance has only gotten shakier (6.87 ERA in his past seven starts), and at this point any trade of Singer would be selling low.

The composition of next year’s rotation is at least in part dependent on Zack Greinke’s plans. After signing a pair of one-year deals to return to his original organization, it seems like Greinke prefers to play out his final days in Kansas City. If he wants to come back for his age-40 season next year — which would allow him to take a run at multiple milestones, including 3,000 career strikeouts — the Royals might well give him the chance to do so. If not, they’ll be looking to replace roughly 200 innings between Greinke and Brad Keller, who is a free agent and is facing a cloudy outlook due to thoracic outlet symptoms.

While none of Singer, Lynch, Kowar or Bubic has developed as hoped, all are still in the organization. Singer and Lynch are the likeliest to have rotation jobs waiting. Kowar has already moved to the bullpen (and continued to struggle). Bubic is recovering from Tommy John surgery. Marsh has also debuted this year, pitching 70 innings in his MLB debut but recording a 5.66 ERA.

Despite the stalled nature of those college arms, the Royals aren’t without some hope in terms of success for their pitching development. Trade acquisition Cole Ragans, who came over from the Rangers in the Aroldis Chapman deal, has gone from a squeezed-out former first rounder in Texas to a focal point in the Kansas City rotation in no time at all.

Ragans had been relegated to bullpen work with Texas, but the Royals plugged him right into the rotation and have reaped immense benefits. After some slight tweaks to his repertoire, Ragans has pitched 65 1/3 innings of 2.34 ERA ball with a huge 31.3% strikeout rate and an 8.9% walk rate. He’s faced a generally weak slate of opponents, but even if you expect some regression, it’s hard not to be encouraged by the turnaround.

Ragans, who’ll turn 26 this winter and is controllable for another five years, has punched his ticket to the 2024 rotation. Singer and Lynch figure to be back in there as well. Last offseason’s surprising two-year investment in Jordan Lyles should assure him a spot despite poor 2023 results (6.24 ERA in 30 starts).

The Royals need to add some arms, but they also need to focus on more than bulk innings. Last winter’s signings of Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough didn’t meaningfully raise the team’s ceiling. Kansas City still has Lyles’ bulk innings in the bank, so to speak, and Ragans gives them one potentially strong performer. The goal this time around should be to add some upside, and unlike the position-player market, free agency has several such candidates this offseason.

No one should expect the Royals to outbid the field for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto — although their need for prime-aged pitching and largely blank payroll outlook arguably makes them an ideal team to take such a risk — but there are several interesting injury reclamation projects. Frankie Montas, Luis Severino and Tyler Mahle could all fit the bill, although Mahle will miss the first half of the season following Tommy John surgery. Jack Flaherty has had a down year overall but will pitch next season at just 28. Notably, the Royals had trade interest in Montas back in the 2021-22 offseason.

A similar gamble on the bullpen side of things would make sense. The Royals have gotten a quietly interesting run from righty James McArthur in recent weeks, as the righty has reeled off 13 1/3 shutout innings with three hits, no walks and 14 strikeouts since moving to the ‘pen. Carlos Hernandez, armed with a triple-digit heater, was quite good through the end of July before hitting a rough patch down the stretch. Lefty Austin Cox has pitched decently in a bullpen role.

By and large, however, the Royals are lacking in established, dependable relievers. With Chapman and Scott Barlow both traded, they can offer a ninth-inning role to any free agent reliever they want to try to steer to Kauffman Stadium. They could give a longtime setup man like Reynaldo Lopez or Joe Jimenez a full-time closing gig. They could also roll the dice on any number of high-end injury reclamations (e.g. Drew Pomeranz, Blake Treinen, Joe Kelly) or perhaps just a former closer who’s had some struggles down the stretch in ’23 (e.g. old friend Will Smith). Any additions along those lines would give the Royals a chance at doubling down on their wildly successful signing of Chapman from last offseason.

Whichever specific targets Kansas City pursues, the resources should be there for Picollo and his staff. The Royals still owe since-released corner man Hunter Dozier $10MM, but there are only three other contracts on the books (Perez, Lyles, Jake Brentz). In all they have just $39.55MM in guaranteed money to be paid out. Arbitration raises will push that number forward, but any of Taylor Hearn, Taylor Clarke, Josh Taylor or Josh Staumont could conceivably be non-tendered. Other arb-eligible players like Singer, Lynch, Bubic and Hernandez aren’t going to break the bank. Their current contracts combined with arb raises should still total under $50MM.

That leaves at least a $40MM gap between the current group and this past season’s Opening Day payroll of about $91-92MM — perhaps a bit more, depending on trade scenarios and non-tenders. The Royals aren’t going to play at the very top of the market, and it bears emphasizing that free agency is a two-way street; they’re going to have a hard time selling Kansas City as a preferred destination to even second- or third-tier free agents who have any kind of demand. It might mean overpaying (as they did with Lyles) or delving even deeper into the free agent waters.

As is to be expected with any 100-loss team, the areas in need of improvement outweigh those where the team appears set. The Royals have some money to splash around in free agency a bit, but don’t expect any marquee additions. Upside plays for pitchers — where their spacious park is surely a bonus — and perhaps some additional trades to acquire controllable names in need of a change of scenery figure to follow. The Royals have more work to do than a team should after enduring eight straight losing or .500 seasons, and it’s going to take multiple years to get them back on track.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s MLB Trade Rumors Podcast!

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we’ll frequently answer questions submitted by our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR readers to submit their questions, and we’ll pick a few to answer.

Whether it’s a trade deadline retrospective, a question surrounding postseason races, or a forward-looking question to the offseason trade and free agent markets — we’d love to hear from you! You can send your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it! iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

Roric Harrison Passes Away

Former big leaguer Roric Harrison passed away last week at age 76.  Harrison was a right-handed pitcher who posted a 4.24 ERA in 140 games with the Orioles, Braves, Indians, and Twins over parts of five MLB seasons from 1972-78, and also pitched for four other organizations at the minor league level during his 14-year career in pro baseball.

Harrison’s minor league career included an memorable season with Triple-A Rochester (then the Orioles’ top affiliate) in 1971 that saw him post a 2.81 ERA over 170 innings to help lead the Red Wings to the International League title.  Though Harrison only pitched for the Wings for that one year, his big role in a championship season merited induction in the club’s Hall Of Fame in 2001.

Rochester Community Baseball Inc. CEO/COO Naomi Silver paid tribute in an official statement from the club: “It’s with a heavy heart that we bid farewell to Roric Harrison, a true legend in Red Wings history.  His outstanding performance during the 1971 season remains unmatched and serves as a testament to his exceptional talent.  Beyond his athletic prowess, Roric was an invaluable part of our community and will be deeply missed.  Our thoughts and sympathies go out to his family during this difficult time.  His memory and legacy will remain an integral part of our franchise’s illustrious tapestry.”

Harrison spent the majority of his MLB career with the Braves, tossing 358 innings over 73 games with the team from 1973-75.  His debut season with Baltimore in 1972 saw the righty post a 2.30 ERA in 94 frames, and also saw Harrison achieve a unique bit of trivia.  1972 was the last season before the American League adopted the DH, so Harrison became the last AL pitcher to hit a home run in a game before Bobby Witt Sr. achieved the feat during interleague play in 1997.

We at MLB Trade Rumors send our condolences to Harrison’s family and loved ones.

Yankees Notes: Rotation, Kahnle, Bowman, Boone

While the Yankees won’t be playing in the postseason this fall, each member of the starting staff still has something to pitch for over the final six games of the season. Gerrit Cole likely has one start remaining to bolster his Cy Young case. The six-time All-Star is the clear favorite, boasting the AL lead in innings pitched and ERA, but he could do with one more strong outing to pad his stats. Meanwhile, converted reliever Michael King has one final game to cap off his impressive transformation into a starting pitcher. If he looks like a lock for the rotation in 2024, it should increase his earning power during the arbitration process this winter.

Carlos Rodón hasn’t looked like himself in the first season of a six-year deal with the Yankees, and his last start will give him a chance to right the ship before the year is up. Similarly, Clarke Schmidt, Luke Weaver, and Frankie Montas are all looking to make a strong impression in their final outings.

Schmidt turned heads out of the bullpen in his rookie season but hasn’t looked quite as sharp out of the rotation during his sophomore campaign, especially as the year has gone on. He’ll look to improve on his 5.24 ERA since the All-Star break. Weaver and Montas will both be free agents this offseason, so it stands to reason that each would like to go out on a high note. Weaver pitched well in his second outing for New York on Friday, and he’s trying to turn things around after a disappointing season with the Reds, Mariners, and Yankees. Montas has spent the entire 2023 campaign on the injured list, but the Yankees could give him a chance to return for one appearance before he hits the open market.

In other Yankees notes…

  • The Yankees placed right-hander Tommy Kahnle on the 15-day IL with shoulder inflammation, ending his 2023 season. The oft-injured reliever missed the first two months of the year with biceps tendinitis but pitched well from June to September, posting a 2.66 ERA and 3.68 SIERA in 42 games. He is under contract through 2024, and barring a setback, there is no reason to believe he won’t be back on the mound next spring.
  • To replace Kahnle on the active roster, the Yankees recalled Matt Bowman from Triple-A. This will be the righty’s second stint with the big league team, after a brief call-up earlier this month. Following his selection in the 2012 draft, Bowman spent time with the Mets, Cardinals, and Reds before signing a minor league deal with the Yankees after the 2020 season. He missed the next two years recovering from Tommy John surgery but re-signed with New York this past winter. He has a 3.99 ERA in 49 games at Triple-A this year.
  • With the Yankees officially eliminated from postseason contention and facing their first losing season since 1992, it’s fair to wonder if manager Aaron Boone is on the hot seat. Steve Adams addressed that very issue earlier today, wondering if the Yankees will (and if they should) fire their skipper.

Kyle Wright Could Pitch Out Of Braves’ Bullpen In The Playoffs

The last time Kyle Wright pitched out of the bullpen in the regular season was 2019. After four disastrous starts earlier in the year, the then-23-year-old rookie made three appearances out of the bullpen in September, giving up just one run while striking out four.

The last time Wright pitched out of the bullpen in the playoffs was during the 2021 World Series. He threw 5 2/3 innings, giving up one run and striking out six. Despite spending most of the season in the minors, he played a pivotal role in the closest game of a close-fought Fall Classic.

On Sunday afternoon, Wright emerged from the Braves’ bullpen once again. He threw three innings in relief of Allan Winans, giving up one run on three hits. He struck out two. It was, potentially, a preview of what’s to come in October. After the game, the 27-year-old right-hander told reporters (including Mark Bowman of MLB.com) that he could pitch out of the ‘pen in the playoffs. “I’ve done it before, and I’ve pitched pretty well,” he explained. “I’m open to anything and whatever I can do to help us win.”

In 2022, Wright was one of the most reliable starting pitchers in the National League, finishing with a 3.19 ERA and a league-leading 21 wins. He took the ball in game two of the NLDS against the Phillies, throwing six scoreless frames and collecting the win in what would turn out to be the Braves’ only victory of the series. Unfortunately, his follow-up campaign has been marred by injury and ineffectiveness. Wright dealt with shoulder soreness during spring training, pushing back his season debut. Then, he pitched to a 5.79 ERA in his first five starts before his shoulder landed him back on the IL. Although he returned to the rotation in mid-September, he continued to struggle, giving up ten runs across seven innings in two starts. Simply put, he didn’t look ready to ramp back up to a starting job in time for the NLDS. Thus, his best opportunity to help his team will be in a bullpen role.

No one could accuse the Braves of making this decision lightly. Indeed, they could certainly use another healthy arm in the rotation. Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder make for a reliable top two, but things get shaky after that. Winans is holding down a spot in the rotation, but it’s hard to believe Atlanta will give the 28-year-old rookie a start in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Max Fried and Charlie Morton are both on the 15-day IL. Fried is nursing a blister, and he is expected back in time for the NLDS, but Morton is dealing with inflammation in his right index finger and won’t be ready until at least the NLCS. That means that even if Fried returns on time, the Braves will only have three starters for their first postseason matchup. If the series goes five games, they’ll need to have two of Strider, Elder, and Fried make multiple starts. That should be possible, given the off days in the schedule, but it’s still a lot to ask of the youngsters or the injury-plagued ace.

In such a case, Wright could serve a valuable multi-inning role out of the bullpen. Not only can he provide length behind the starters, thereby lightening their workload, but he could also pitch multiple innings in a potential bullpen game. Atlanta’s other long relievers have struggled lately; Michael Tonkin has a 7.07 ERA over the past month, while Collin McHugh had a 5.93 ERA in the month before he hit the injured list with shoulder inflammation.

Wright has not yet earned a spot on the Braves’ postseason roster. After such a difficult season, he’ll need more than one solid relief appearance to demonstrate he’s ready for October. Yet considering his high ceiling, manager Brian Snitker should give the righty every chance to prove himself before the regular season wraps up.

Poll: Aaron Boone’s Future

Aaron Boone‘s future with the Yankees has been a talking point among Yankees fans throughout the season. He’s wrapping up his sixth season as the team’s manager and is signed through the 2024 campaign — with a club option for the 2025 season. The Yanks have had plenty of regular-season success under Boone, including a pair of 100-win seasons (100 and 103) in 2018-19 and a 99-win campaign just last year.

However, the 2023 season will be the first under Boone in which the Yankees don’t reach the postseason. They’ve gone to the ALCS twice under his leadership but haven’t advanced to the World Series.

A string of five consecutive postseason appearances followed by one miss generally wouldn’t be viewed as grounds for a potential managerial change in most markets, but the Yankees perennially operate on one of the sport’s largest payrolls and have higher expectations than just about any club in the sport. Add in the possibility that this could be the team’s first sub-.500 season way back in 1992 — a stunning statistic in and of itself — and the calls for a managerial change among the fan base only become louder.

If a change is made, it seems likely it’ll be the result of a decision directly from ownership. SNY’s Andy Martino reported late last month that the only way Boone would be ousted would be if managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner overruled general manager Brian Cashman on a managerial decision — which he has not done before. Boone told Yankees beat writers within the past hour that he has not yet been definitively told whether he’ll return for the 2024 season or not (link via The Athletic’s Chris Kirschner). Any such decision seems unlikely to come prior to the end of the regular season, though USA Today’s Bob Nightengale wrote this weekend that the club now expects to retain Boone.

On the one hand, it’d be unfair to lay the blame squarely at Boone’s feet, as is the case with any manager and a team that underperforms expectations. Boone has been hamstrung by significant injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Nestor Cortes, Luis Severino and Lou Trivino, among others, on the pitching side of things. Reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge spent nearly two months on the injured list this summer, while first baseman Anthony Rizzo‘s season will finish at 99 games due to concussion issues and Jose Trevino‘s season will end at just 55 games due to wrist surgery. The club also entered the season with several question marks around the roster, most notably in left field, where they’ve cycled through a carousel of journeyman options including Jake Bauers, Willie Calhoun and Billy McKinney.

On the other, those injury troubles and some roster shortcomings don’t entirely absolve Boone of any and all blame, of course. All managers deal with injuries to star players, and every club has its share of roster imperfections to navigate. Boone is still the one filling out the lineup card and pulling the strings with regard to bullpen and bench decisions. The composition of the team’s coaching staff, any sloppy play or questionable effort, and any other number of tougher-to-quantify shortcomings tend to fall at a manager’s feet as well.

The Yankees have only had three managers in the past 28 years. Joe Torre helmed the club from 1996 through 2007, capturing four World Series titles and another pair of AL pennants along the way. Torre gave way to Joe Girardi, who skippered the club from 2008-17. Girardi won a World Series title himself in 2009.

Boone made the playoffs in each of his first five seasons on the job but will fall short in 2023. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily grounds for an immediate dismissal in the Bronx; Girardi’s Yankees missed the playoffs entirely in three of his final five seasons. Boone hasn’t advanced to a World Series in any of his six seasons in the manager’s chair, though his predecessor also missed the World Series in his final eight seasons on the job.

At the same time, that increasingly lengthy layoff from appearing in a Fall Classic surely leads to mounting frustration both among fans and the team’s ownership. The lowest payroll the Yankees have had relative to the rest of the league since their last World Series appearance came in 2018, when they opened the season with the sixth-largest mark in baseball. They’ve ranked higher than that every year since 2009 — including seven seasons with the game’s second-largest payroll and four with the largest. That level of investment inherently comes with lofty expectations, and they’re now up to 14 seasons without a World Series appearance — let alone a title.

Time will tell whether Boone returns for a seventh season at the helm. If he does, with no additional guaranteed years on his contract beyond the ’24 season, his job status will be a hot-button issue for the Yankees throughout the upcoming season (even more so than it is now).

It’s generally clear where the majority of Yankees fans land on this issue, but let’s open it up for MLBTR readers to weigh in, asking both if the Yankees should move on and whether they actually will (which, of course, are two very different questions):

*Will* the Yankees fire manager Aaron Boone?

  • No 57% (5,261)
  • Yes 43% (3,892)

Total votes: 9,153

 

*Should* the Yankees fire manager Aaron Boone?

  • Yes 59% (5,016)
  • No 41% (3,496)

Total votes: 8,512

Fantasy Baseball Chat with Brad Johnson

Brad Johnson is a veteran of the fantasy baseball industry with a decade of experience in Roto, H2H, dynasty, DFS, and experimental formats. As an expert in the field, Brad participates in the Tout Wars Draft and Hold format and was crowned the league’s winner in 2020. Brad’s writing experience includes RotoGraphs, NBC SportsEDGE, and right here at MLB Trade Rumors. He’s also presented at the First Pitch Arizona fantasy baseball conference.

Click here to read the transcript of today’s fantasy baseball chat with Brad!

Brad will also be holding fantasy baseball chats exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers, where he’ll be able to answer a much larger percentage of questions asked. Click here to learn more about Front Office.