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Ranger Suarez Still Dealing With Elbow Inflammation, Could Open Season On Injured List

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Phillies starter Ranger Suárez has been slowed the past couple weeks after experiencing some forearm tightness early in the spring. The Phils haven’t broadcast any long-term concern but the issue seems to be trending towards a season-opening injured list stint.

Manager Rob Thomson told reporters today the southpaw continues to be bothered by inflammation in his throwing elbow (link via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). An MRI fortunately didn’t turn up any structural damage and Gelb reports that Suárez could begin throwing as soon as Friday. Still, it’s another minor setback that puts his availability for Opening Day in jeopardy, Thomson acknowledged.

If Suárez has to open the year on the shelf, the Phils will be down two possible members of their Opening Day rotation. Top prospect Andrew Painter was vying for a job this spring before a UCL sprain necessitated at least a month of downtime. Suárez’s issue doesn’t appear as concerning but leaves some questions behind the top three of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Taijuan Walker.

Lefty Bailey Falter, who came into camp competing with Painter for the fifth starter job, now seems assured of an Opening Day rotation spot. Lefty Cristopher Sánchez, who might have been next on the depth chart, has some triceps soreness. Righty Nick Nelson was also in the rotation mix early in camp but has been bothered by a hamstring concern. That’d leave Michael Plassmeyer as the most straightforward option to step into the #5 role.

However, Gelb suggests the Phils are likelier to turn to Matt Strahm as a starter if needed early on. The southpaw worked solely in relief last year with the Red Sox, tossing 44 2/3 innings over 50 outings. Strahm had some early-career experience out of a rotation, though, and his five-pitch mix created some speculation he could sign as a starter in free agency this winter.

That didn’t transpire. The Phillies added Strahm with the intent to keep him in the bullpen and while that seems to remain the long-term plan, they’ve stretched him out as a multi-inning arm in camp. That’ll still be the case even if he’s kicked back into relief midseason. “Once Ranger gets back, whenever that is, Strahm goes back into the bullpen,” Thomson said (via Gelb). “And he’s still lengthened out. So that would be good.”

Kicking Strahm to the rotation would subtract one lock from the Opening Day bullpen. The Phillies would still have the hard-throwing duo of José Alvarado and Gregory Soto as left-handed options late in games. Moving Strahm to the starting staff could clear an Opening Day middle relief job for someone like Yunior Marté or Erich Uelmen.

Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff To Start Season On Injured List

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The Twins will open the season with second baseman Jorge Polanco and corner outfielder/first baseman Alex Kirilloff on the 10-day injured list, tweets Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press. Recent reports had suggested that was under consideration for both players, neither of whom has gotten into a Spring Training game.

Both players finished the 2022 campaign on the shelf. Polanco was hampered by a left knee issue that cost him the season’s final month. The organization doesn’t seem overly concerned — president of baseball operations Derek Falvey said a couple weeks ago that Polanco might be ready for Opening Day — but symptoms have lingered into exhibition play and kept him from ramping up as expected. He’ll at least require a week and a half into the regular season to be ready for meaningful game action.

Kirilloff’s injury might be more worrisome considering his history. The 25-year-old has battled problems with his right wrist for the past couple seasons. His 2021 campaign was cut short when he underwent surgery to repair a ligament tear. That didn’t put the issue to bed, as he felt continued discomfort and required a second surgery last August. That ended his season prematurely again and Falvey suggested earlier this month that Kirilloff has been behind schedule as he builds back.

Minnesota has a fair amount of position player depth types who could step into larger roles early in the season. Utility player Nick Gordon has plenty of second base experience. He suffered a high ankle sprain earlier in the spring but has since played five games after a two-week absence. He seems on track to be on the Opening Day roster. The Twins also signed veteran infielder Donovan Solano to factor in at first and second base and have veteran Kyle Farmer as a multi-positional option off the bench.

Kirilloff had been the favorite for the season-opening first base job. That could now fall to Solano and Joey Gallo, who could step in from his expected corner outfield role. That would likely open a roster spot for left fielder Trevor Larnach, particularly since the Twins are planning to play Michael A. Taylor regularly in center field to keep Byron Buxton at designated hitter early on.

Veterans With Upcoming Opt-Outs On Minor League Deals

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Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association agreed to a new collective bargaining agreement just over a year ago, and one of the provisions in that CBA is uniform opt-out opportunities for Article XX(B) free agents on minor league deals. An Article XX(B) free agent is one with at least six years of service time who finished the previous season on a major league roster or injured list. Any such player who signs a minor league deal more than ten days prior to Opening Day can opt out of that deal at three points if they haven’t been added to the 40-man roster: five days before Opening Day, May 1 and June 1.

This year, Opening Day is March 30, meaning that first opt-out opportunity is coming up this Saturday, March 25. Teams will have to make some decisions between now and then about whether or not to give these players roster spots or let them return to the open market to pursue other opportunities. With many teams dealing with spring injuries, some of these players should be able to find opportunities elsewhere if they can’t find it with their current organization. Their current clubs can prevent them from opting out by giving them a roster spot, but that may involve cutting someone else.

Players who don’t meet this criteria can also negotiate opt-out provisions into their contracts. First baseman Luke Voit has less than six years service time but has an opt-out in his deal with the Brewers, which he recently pushed to this Friday. But the players listed below will have them automatically.

Angels: RHP Chris Devenski

Devenski, 32, had some good seasons with the Astros in 2016 and 2017 but fell off in the two years after. He’s been either hurt or ineffective in the past three campaigns, not reaching 15 innings pitched in any of them. He tossed 14 2/3 frames last year between the Diamondbacks and Phillies with a combined 8.59 ERA. The Halos have a large number of relievers on their roster that can’t be optioned, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for someone like Devenski.

Braves: IF Ehire Adrianza, OF Kevin Pillar and RHP Jesse Chavez

Adrianza, 33, is a light-hitting utility infielder who was with the Nationals last year until the Braves acquired him at the deadline, though injuries limited him to just six games with Atlanta. Pillar, 34, has long been known as a glove-first outfielder. He was drafted by the Blue Jays and worked his way up to the majors when Alex Anthopoulos, now the president of baseball operations in Atlanta, was with the Jays. Pillar got into four games with the Dodgers last year before a shoulder fracture ended his season. Chavez, 39, started last year with the Cubs but was flipped to Atlanta in April for Sean Newcomb. The Braves then sent him to the Angels in the Raisel Iglesias deal but claimed him off waivers a few weeks later. He ended up throwing 69 1/3 innings on the year with a 3.76 ERA.

It’s possible that all three of these guys are on the verge of getting roster spots. The club recently optioned various players on the 40-man, including Vaughn Grissom, Braden Shewmake, Jordan Luplow, Eli White and Nick Anderson. Grissom and Shewmake were in competition for the shortstop job but it seems they will get more seasoning in the minors while Orlando Arcia takes the gig, with Adrianza in backup infield role. Pillar was competing with Luplow and White for a job as a backup outfielder but it seems he may get the nod. The club clearly loves Chavez based on the fact that they acquired him twice last year. The 40-man roster already has a couple of open spots before they’ve even moved Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek to the 60-day injured list. Both of them are going to be out for most or perhaps all of the year due to Tommy John surgery. Atlanta could therefore have four roster spots at their disposal, allowing them to select these three and whichever of Jared Shuster or Dylan Dodd gets the fifth starter job.

Brewers: OF Tyler Naquin

Naquin, 32 next month, is a solid platoon bat from the left side. For his career, he’s hit .274/.326/.468 against righties for a 109 wRC+, compared to a .210/.272/.339 line and 62 wRC+ against southpaws. With Tyrone Taylor set to miss the first month of the season with an elbow injury, the club could use another outfielder. As mentioned above, the Brewers also have Voit in camp on a minor league deal, which makes things a little crowded. Voit could have opted out of his deal last week but agreed to push his decision because he and the club seem happy with each other, but the roster decisions still need to be made.

Opening one spot on the 40-man will be easy, as Justin Wilson is set to miss most of the year recovering from Tommy John surgery and will surely be placed on the 60-day IL shortly. Aaron Ashby could also go to the 60-day as he’s out with a shoulder injury, though the latest reporting indicated that he was targeting a mid-May return, which the club might not want to close off. Beyond the 40-man questions, there’s the fit on the active roster to think about, as adding both Voit and Naquin would likely involve optioning Owen Miller and Brice Turang, or perhaps designating Keston Hiura for assignment. Brewers general manager Matt Arnold recently spoke about some of the “tough decisions” the club has to make.

Dodgers: OF Jason Heyward

Heyward signed an eight-year, $184MM deal with the Cubs prior to the 2016 campaign but never really lived up to expectations. Outside of the shortened 2020 season, he never posted a wRC+ higher than 100, which is league average. Last year, he hit .204/.278/.277 for a wRC+ of 61 in 48 games. He went on the injured list in late June with a knee injury and never returned. While on the IL, the Cubs announced they would be releasing Heyward at season’s end, despite still having one year left on his contract.

The Dodgers signed him to a minor league deal and will be responsible for paying him just the MLB minimum salary for any time spent on the big league roster, with the Cubs on the hook for the majority of his salary. Despite not hitting much in recent years, he’s always gotten good grades for his defense, though those numbers have naturally declined as he’s aged. Manager Dave Roberts has recently suggested Heyward is likely to make the club. They’ll need to open a roster spot but could do so easily by transferring Gavin Lux to the 60-day IL, as he’s expected to miss the entire season with a torn ACL.

Giants: C Roberto Pérez and RHP Joe Ross

Pérez, 34, has long been a well-regarded defensive catcher with a subpar bat. He has a career batting line of .207/.298/.360 but has also racked up 79 Defensive Runs Saved. He only played 21 games for the Pirates last year before hamstring surgery ended his season. The Giants already have two catchers on the roster in Joey Bart and Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol, but the latter can play other positions and has recently been getting some outfield work. Perhaps that allows Pérez to make the club as a more straightforward backup to Bart, which will necessitate a roster move. Luis González is expected to miss the first half of the season due to back surgery and could be move to the 60-day IL to open a spot for Perez.

Ross, 30 in May, had the second Tommy John surgery of his career last June and isn’t set to return for a while. He signed a minor league deal with the Giants in January and presumably intends to stick with the organization as he rehabs.

Mariners: OF Kole Calhoun

Calhoun, 35, has had many strong years at the plate but is coming off a pair of rough ones. In 2021, he made multiple trips to the IL for hamstring issues and only got into 51 games. Last year, he hit .196/.257/.330 with the Rangers, striking out in 32.1% of his plate appearances.

The M’s will likely have Julio Rodríguez, Teoscar Hernández, Jarred Kelenic and AJ Pollock in their outfield mix. Some recent injuries to Taylor Trammell and Dylan Moore perhaps helped Calhoun’s chances of carving out a bench role, but the club also has Cooper Hummel and Sam Haggerty on hand as outfield-capable utility players, and outfield prospect Cade Marlowe is on the 40-man roster.

Marlins: IF Yuli Gurriel and IF José Iglesias

Gurriel, 39 in June, has been an excellent hitter for much of his career but inconsistent of late. He dipped in 2020 but bounced back to winning a batting title in 2021. Another dip followed last year, as he hit .242/.288/.360 for a wRC+ of 85. Iglesias, 33, has long been a light-hitting glove-first shortstop, though his defensive grades have slipped of late. With the Rockies last year, he hit .292/.328/.380 for a wRC+ of 85.

Gurriel seems likely to get a spot based on the way he and the club danced with each other this offseason. They reportedly offered him a $2MM deal at one point but withdrew it after a week went by without a response, later circling back to get this minor league deal done. Iglesias also makes sense as insurance for the club now that Miguel Rojas has been traded to the Dodgers, leaving utility man Joey Wendle as the top option at short. If they want to select both, they’ll need two roster spots. One of them should be easy with Max Meyer set to miss most of the season due to Tommy John surgery and bound for the 60-day IL shortly.

Mets: RHP Tommy Hunter

Hunter, 36, is a 15-year veteran who has thrived as a reliever over the past 10 of those. However, injuries have been an issue recently, as he hasn’t topped 25 innings in a season since 2018. With the Mets last year, he posted a 2.42 ERA in 22 1/3 innings but made multiple trips to the IL due to back tightness.

The Mets’ bullpen suffered a huge blow recently with Edwin Díaz likely done for the season due to knee surgery, as Sam Coonrod and Bryce Montes de Oca also deal with injuries. That could open up a window for someone like Hunter, but the Mets have also said they’d prefer to have some optionable pitchers in the bullpen, which could work against him. If they do want Hunter in the mix, opening a roster spot will be easy with Díaz and José Quintana both destined for the 60-day IL soon.

Nationals: RHP Chad Kuhl, RHP Alex Colomé and LHP Sean Doolittle

Kuhl, 30, had some decent seasons pitching for the Pirates but had an inconsistent season with the Rockies last year. He had a 3.49 ERA through the end of June but then an 8.60 the rest of the way, finishing up at 5.72 combined. Colomé, 34, has been an effective reliever for many years but also found it hard to succeed in Coors. He signed with the Rockies last year and posted a 5.74 ERA on the year. He’s not too far removed from a ridiculous 0.81 ERA in the shortened 2020 season and a 2.80 in 2019.

Kuhl seems to be the favorite to replace Cade Cavalli in the rotation, with the latter set to miss the whole season due to Tommy John surgery. Colomé makes sense for the club given they have few settled options in their bullpen. Opening up two spots should be straightforward since Cavalli and Tanner Rainey are both candidates for the 60-day IL due to Tommy John surgery.

As for Doolittle, he recently spoke about taking it slow in his rehab from last year’s elbow sprain and brace procedure. He isn’t likely to be ready for Opening Day but seems happy with his rehab process and would therefore likely forgo his first opt-out opportunity.

Padres: IF Rougned Odor and RHP Craig Stammen

Odor, 29, has long been a one-dimensional hitter, providing power and little else. With the Orioles last year, he hit 13 home runs but slashed .207/.275/.357 for a wRC+ of 80. He’ll be trying to force his way into a bench role in San Diego. One spot will go to a backup catcher, leaving three spots for Odor, Adam Engel, José Azocar, Brandon Dixon, Matthew Batten, Tim Lopes and David Dahl. The club doesn’t have an obvious candidate for the 60-day IL, which could work against non-roster players like Odor, Lopes and Dahl.

As for Stammen, 39, he recently revealed that he suffered a torn capsule in his right shoulder and strained sub scapula and likely won’t pitch ever again.

Pirates: C Kevin Plawecki

Plawecki, 32, is a career .235/.313/.341 hitter, leading to a wRC+ of 80. That’s bit below average, even for a catcher, but he has good grades for his defense and framing and is considered a strong clubhouse leader. When he was designated by assignment by the Red Sox last year, some players, including current Pirate Rich Hill, spoke publicly about how much they didn’t like Plawecki’s departure. The Rangers added him for the final games of the season even though they weren’t in contention, seemingly valuing those same intangibles.

The Bucs will have Austin Hedges as their primary catcher but seem likely to select Plawecki to be the backup. Hedges is one of only two backstops currently on the 40-man. The other is prospect Endy Rodríguez, who was optioned to Triple-A last week. If Plawecki in indeed added, it’s possible that Jarlín García is headed for the 60-day IL, as he’s been shut down for the next four to five weeks with a nerve injury in his biceps area and won’t be able to return until May at the earliest.

Rangers: C Sandy León, LHP Danny Duffy and RHP Ian Kennedy

León, 34, is generally regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate. Last year, he split his time between the Guardians and Twins, hitting .169/.298/.211. For his career, he’s racked up 34 Defensive Runs Saved and has positive framing numbers from FanGraphs.

The Rangers have three catchers on their 40-man roster in Jonah Heim, Mitch Garver and Sam Huff. León might have a better path to playing time elsewhere, as multiple clubs around the league are dealing with injuries to their catching corps. Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks was recently diagnosed with a forearm fracture, leaving them with youngsters Gabriel Moreno and José Herrera as their top two. The Athletics only have two catchers on their roster right now and one of them, Manny Piña, will open the season on the injured list.

Duffy, 34, spent years as an effective starter for the Royals, currently sporting a 3.95 career ERA in 234 games. However, he hasn’t pitched July of 2021, when a flexor strain in his forearm sent him to the IL. The Dodgers acquired him from the Royals, hoping for a return to health in the second half, but he suffered a setback. He then underwent surgery but the Dodgers took a chance on him again, signing him to a $3MM deal with a club option for 2023 and hoping for a return late in 2022. He never made it back to the mound and the Dodgers declined his option at season’s end. General manager Chris Young listed Duffy as a closer candidate in January, but he’s yet to appear in a game this spring.

Kennedy, 38, had an effective half season of relief with the Rangers in 2021, posting a 2.51 ERA before getting flipped to the Phillies. He had a 4.13 ERA after the deal and then slumped to a 5.36 mark with the Diamondbacks last year. The club doesn’t currently have an obvious candidate to put on the 60-day IL, which could work against Kennedy’s chances of cracking the roster.

Rays: IF/OF Charlie Culberson and OF Ben Gamel

Culberson, 34 next month, is a veteran journeyman who brings much defensive versatility to the table. He’s played every position except catcher and center field in his career. With the Rangers last year, he hit .252/.283/.357 for a wRC+ of 81.

Gamel, 31 in May, was with the Pirates last year and hit .232/.324/.369 for a wRC+ of 97. He’s had modest platoon splits for his career but they were exaggerated last year. The left-handed hitter slashed .252/.342/.409 against righties for a wRC+ of 112 but just .175/.273/.258 against southpaws for a wRC+ of 56.

The Rays have a tight roster and spent most of the winter making cuts from it, which could make it tough for either of these players to make it. But if either played is deemed worthy, Shane Baz is destined for the 60-day IL soon due to his Tommy John rehab, making it easy to open a spot for someone.

Reds: OF Chad Pinder, RHP Chase Anderson and RHP Hunter Strickland

Pinder, 31 next week, has spent his entire career with the Athletics until reaching free agency this winter. He’s a super utility guy, able to play anywhere on the field but catcher. He’s didn’t have his best season last year, walking just 3.7% of the time and striking out at a 31.1% clip, but his career batting line is a serviceable .242/.294/.417 for a wRC+ of 96.

Anderson, 35, had some good years on his track record but hasn’t been able to post an ERA under 6.00 since 2019. He got into nine games for the Reds last year with a 6.38 ERA. He was recently transferred from minor league camp to major league camp, suggesting he has a legitimate chance at earning a job.

Strickland, 34, had some good years with the Giants but has gone into journeyman mode recently. He made 66 appearances with the Reds last year, finishing with a 4.91 ERA while walking 11.6% of batters faced.

The Reds should be able to open a roster spot by transferring Justin Dunn to the 60-day IL, as he’s going to be out for a few months with a shoulder issue.

Rockies: IF Mike Moustakas

Moustakas, 34, had many good years with the Royals and Brewers but his four-year deal with the Reds didn’t go very well. He was fine in the shortened 2020 season but largely injured and ineffective for the past two years. He got into 78 contests last year but hit just .214/.295/.345.

Moving his home to Coors Field could give him a boost if he’s healthy. The Rockies could use help at third base after second baseman Brendan Rodgers suffered a potentially season-ending injury. The club’s plan is to move Ryan McMahon from third to second, freeing up the hot corner for someone like Moustakas.

Opening up a spot should be straightforward, with Rodgers and Sean Bouchard both set to miss extensive time and easy calls to be placed on the 60-day IL.

Royals: OF Jackie Bradley Jr. and IF Matt Duffy

Bradley, 33 next month, has long been an excellent defender with an okay bat, but his offense has been awful for the past two seasons. Last year, splitting his time between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, he hit .203/.255/.311 for a wRC+ of 56.

Duffy, 32, is a versatile utility player who can cover any infield position and has some limited corner outfield experience. He’s not coming off a great year at the plate, as he hit .250/.308/.311 with the Angels for a wRC+ of 78, but he’s had better results in the past.

The Royals optioned a few notable position players earlier today, potentially open the door for these two and Franmil Reyes to make the Opening Day squad. They can open up one 40-man roster spot by moving Jake Brentz to the 60-day IL, as he’ll be rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, but finding two more spots will require alternative solutions.

Tigers: IF César Hernández and RHP Trevor Rosenthal

Hernández, 33 in May, is primarily a second baseman who is coming off a bizarre power surge and then a blackout. He had never hit more than 15 home runs in a season until he hit 21 in 2021, but then he had just a single homer last year. His final batting line with the Nats last year was .248/.311/.318, wRC+ of 79. Assuming Nick Maton is taking the third base job in Detroit, Hernández is competing for a bench spot along with players like Zack Short, Andre Lipcius and Andy Ibañez.

Rosenthal, 33 in May, has occasionally been one of the best relievers on the planet, including his 2020 campaign. He posted a 1.90 ERA over 23 appearances, striking out 41.8% of batters he faced. However, various injuries have prevented him from pitching at all in the past two seasons. He recently spoke about how he may not be ready for Opening Day but is happy with his rehab process with the Tigers. It’s possible he forgoes his opt out in order to continue his work with the training staff.

The club doesn’t have an obvious 60-day IL candidate and they might also want to add non-roster invitees like Chasen Shreve or Trey Wingenter, creating a bit of a roster squeeze.

Twins: RHP Aaron Sanchez

Sanchez, 30, had an excellent season back in 2016, posting an ERA of 3.00 over 30 starts with the Blue Jays. Unfortunately, injuries have diminished his workload and results in recent years. He had a 6.60 ERA in 15 appearances for the Nationals and Twins last year.

He twice accepted outright assignments with the Twins last year and then re-signed on a minor league deal in the winter. He doesn’t seem to have a path to a roster spot at the moment but seems to be comfortable with the organization. He’ll soon have a chance to return to the open market but the relationship is good enough for him to stick around.

White Sox: IF Hanser Alberto and OF Billy Hamilton

Alberto, 30, is a light-hitting utility option. He spent last year with the Dodgers, spending time at all four infield positions in addition to some corner outfield work. He hit .244/.258/.365 for a wRC+ of 73. He was signed to bolster Chicago’s uncertain second base position, but that was before they solidified it by adding Elvis Andrus.

Hamilton, 32, has long been one of the game’s best defenders in the outfield and speediest baserunners. However, hit bat has always lagged behind. He got into 37 games between the Marlins and Twins last year but hit .050/.136/.050. His career batting line is .239/.292/.326 for a wRC+ of 66. The club came into spring with a question mark in right field but it seems like prospect Oscar Colás is trending towards taking that job.

Ryan Lavarnway Announces Retirement

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Ryan Lavarnway will be chatting with MLBTR readers tomorrow at 10am Central. Click here to ask questions in advance or join in the chat when it’s in progress!

Veteran catcher Ryan Lavarnway, who spent parts of 10 seasons in the Majors and 15 seasons in pro ball overall, announced his retirement on Wednesday in a thoughtful and poignant piece at The Athletic. Fans of any team are encouraged to read through Lavarnway’s piece, which deftly details the trials and tribulations of a prototypical journeyman who overcame a self-admitted lack of athleticism in large part due to a “sixth tool” — being “really, really good at not quitting.”

Lavarnway, 35, was a sixth-round pick by the Red Sox in 2008 and was twice named the organization’s minor league offensive player of the year. He’s twice suited up for Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and played 25 games with the 2013 World Series champion Red Sox.

Lavarnway never cemented himself as a regular in the big leagues despite hitting his way into being a prospect of some note with the Sox. The well-traveled backstop writes that he wore 18 different uniforms over his career and was optioned, traded, claimed on waivers or released a combined 26 times throughout his career. Along the way, he appeared for the Red Sox, Pirates, Braves, Athletics, Marlins, Reds, Indians and Orioles.

While he never topped 46 big league games or 166 big league plate appearances in a season, Lavarnway saw a total of 165 MLB games and 486 trips to the plate, during which he batted .217/.272/.345 with nine homers. He wound up accruing more than three years of Major League service time throughout his many MLB stints. Lavarnway also spent parts of 11 seasons in Triple-A, where he was a combined .267/.360/.432 hitter with 79 more homers in 2580 plate appearances. Best wishes to Lavarnway in whatever next step he pursues.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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Along with this post, Tim Dierkes is holding a live Cubs-centric chat on Thursday at 9am central time. Use this link to ask a question in advance, participate in the live event, and read the transcript afterward.

The Cubs made a pair of significant signings, but still avoided the market’s flashiest free agents.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

  • None

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Cubs kicked off their offseason with one notable change to the coaching staff, promoting Dustin Kelly to hitting coach.  It’s been a high-turnover position for the Cubs over the years.  Otherwise, manager David Ross’ coaching staff largely remained the same.

The Cubs had telegraphed their intention to let Willson Contreras leave, but in November made the easy choice to tender the one-year qualifying offer in order to lock down draft pick compensation.  Contreras, of course, declined.  Though an agreement with Contreras wasn’t in the plans, it soon became clear the Cubs would be active in free agency.

From the outset, the Cubs were known to have interest in the “Big Four” free agent shortstops: Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, and Dansby Swanson.  Though Nico Hoerner did a fine job at shortstop in 2022, he was willing to move to second base, and the Cubs saw it as an opportunity to improve their up-the-middle defense.

As you know, the Cubs signed Swanson to the second-largest contract in franchise history.  The Cubs’ choice will reverberate over the next seven years, so it’s worth examining how it unfolded.

Trea Turner was the first of the four off the board, reaching an 11-year, $300MM agreement with the Phillies on December 5th, the first day of the Winter Meetings.  That total exceeded MLBTR’s $268MM projection by about 12%, which doesn’t seem too bad.  But also consider that before Turner signed with the Phillies, the Padres reportedly offered $342MM, which topped our projection by about 28%.

Having left a reported $42MM on the table, it would appear that the suggestion of Turner’s strong east coast preference was accurate.  I assume there was some number the Cubs could have come up with to convince Turner to put down roots in the Midwest, but to the extent that any of these contracts are reasonable, that number would have been less so.  Turner was seemingly never really an option for the Cubs, but his signing established that Big Four shortstop prices would exceed preseason expectations.  It also established that the Padres badly wanted a top free agent position player, having offered $342MM to Turner and reportedly around $415MM to Aaron Judge.

Agent Scott Boras later revealed that the Cubs were of one at least three teams that were “really after” Bogaerts.  Unfortunately for the Cubs, Twins, and Blue Jays, the Padres wanted Bogaerts enough to reach 11 years and $280MM on December 8th.  MLBTR was at $189MM for Bogaerts in October, so his total beat our projection by a whopping 48% and $91MM.  I don’t know what Bogaerts’ second-best offer was.  It’s possible that if bidding stopped in the $200MM range, the Cubs would’ve signed him.

The Cubs were presumably in on Correa to some degree, but at that point in the offseason he certainly seemed headed toward a contract well beyond their comfort zone.  MLBTR had predicted $288MM for Correa.  But five days after Bogaerts reached an agreement, Correa had a 13-year, $350MM deal with the Giants in place – pending a physical.  That would’ve been 21% beyond our projection.

As of December 17th, the day the Cubs reached an agreement with Swanson, everyone still thought the Correa-Giants deal was happening.  That same day, Mets owner Steve Cohen remarked, “We got there late” on Correa.  Swanson seemed reasonable by comparison, with his contract exceeding MLBTR’s projection by about 15% and his total just above half of the initial Correa agreement.  While Swanson was the consensus “worst” of the four shortstops, that’s less a knock on him and more to highlight how good the other three have been in their careers.

Even to reach $177MM for Swanson, the Cubs had to go out of their comfort zone.  The contract runs through Swanson’s age-35 season, the type and length of deal they’ve been avoiding in recent years.  Given a high strikeout rate and lack of walks, Swanson’s power carries his offense and should lead to a wRC+ in the 110 range.  He’s very well-regarded defensively, winning a Gold Glove and leading shortstops by a wide margin in 2022 in Outs Above Average.  The Cubs expect Swanson to be a clubhouse leader and a high-floor, strong defensive shortstop who will remain at the position for most or all of his contract.

It’s worth noting that since Swanson declined a qualifying offer from the Braves, the Cubs will forfeit their second-highest pick in the July amateur draft and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K.  This would have been true for Bogaerts or Turner as well.  The Cubs lost the #49 pick in the draft for signing Swanson, but also gained the #68 pick for the loss of Contreras.  Fans can welcome Contreras back to Wrigley in Cardinal red at a homestand in early May.

Three days after the Cubs reached agreement with Swanson, Correa’s press conference with the Giants was delayed due to an issue with his physical.  The issue was later said to be Correa’s 2014 fibula fracture.  The following day, Cohen and the Mets swooped in to make a $315MM deal, lopping off $35MM from the Giants’ price.  The Mets, however, had the same concerns as the Giants, and by January 5th other teams were again getting involved.

It was at this point that, in theory, the Cubs could have jumped in and done what Cohen initially planned to do: install Correa as the long-term third baseman.  But for a team that reportedly “loved” Correa as recently as November, the Cubs didn’t make him an offer his first time through free agency, after the lockout.  And the Ricketts family not being nearly as impulsive or free-spending as Cohen, there’s no indication they tried to jump in after Correa’s physicals scuttled two separate $300MM deals.  Plus, once the price tumbled all the way down to six years and $200MM, the Twins had clear advantages: they were the incumbent, and they’d have Correa continue playing shortstop.

So yes, the Cubs technically could have signed any of the Big Four shortstops.  But given how things developed and knowing what we know now, it’s difficult to see how it could have been anyone but Swanson with the Cubs’ current ownership.

Most of the Cubs’ key signings took place in December, so it was a very busy month for president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins.  Throughout the offseason, the Cubs were known to be seeking two starting pitchers, one of whom might be Drew Smyly, who had good results for them over 106 1/3 innings in 2022.  Smyly was indeed the secondary rotation signing, at a price matching expectations.

Though some early interest was professed for Kodai Senga in November, it seems Jameson Taillon was always the Cubs’ top free agent starting pitcher target.  Taillon explained later to the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “The Cubs made it clear from day one I was a top priority. If you can nerd-out and talk pitching with me, that really works for me.”  It seems the Cubs’ pitching infrastructure talking points really did help, as the Phillies offered Taillon $72MM, but he took $68MM from Chicago.

While MLBTR did expect a four-year deal for Taillon, the contracts he and Taijuan Walker received moved the mid-tier market forward with their $17-18MM average annual values.  Taillon, 31, is a solid mid-rotation arm, though I don’t think we can count on the Cubs getting him to miss more bats and raise his ceiling.  The team still lacks an ace, but convincing Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, or Jacob deGrom to join the Cubs would’ve required an uncharacteristic overpay by the Ricketts family.  The Rangers, another team that has been making improvements but still has less than a 2% chance at reaching the playoffs, did just that to lure deGrom.

The Cubs didn’t throw fans any curveballs in their choices to fill holes in center field and at catcher.  The market for center field was thin, and the club moved quickly to sign Cody Bellinger to a one-year deal.  The fit works for several reasons: his defense creates a decent floor for the Cubs, but the one-year term keeps the spot open for top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in 2024.  For his part, if the 27-year-old Bellinger can bring his wRC+ back into the 110 range, a good multiyear deal should be waiting for him in free agency after the season.

Reports suggested the Cubs had interest in catchers such as Christian Vazquez, Omar Narvaez, and Sean Murphy.  Once Vazquez and Narvaez went off the board, the Cubs opted for a defense-first addition with the more affordable Tucker Barnhart.  Elsewhere the Cubs also worked around the edges, bringing in Trey Mancini with the goal of finding some pop.  Mancini will spend time in the outfield corners, at first base, and at DH as needed.  Given an opt-out after 2023, Mancini is seemingly hoping to rebuild value and re-enter the free agent market.

Eric Hosmer doesn’t provide power, but the Cubs brought him in anyway.  The Padres are paying all but $720K of Hosmer’s $13MM salary this year, so it won’t be painful for the Cubs to pull the plug if Hosmer isn’t producing.  It’s quite possible Matt Mervis hits his way into the lineup at Hosmer’s expense sometime in the first half.  The club similarly made a modest addition at third base with the Edwin Rios pickup.  Rios, at least, is on the right side of 30 and has shown big power in his limited big league exposure.  Rios missed most of 2021 with shoulder surgery and much of 2022 with a hamstring tear, hence his affordable contract.

For much-needed bullpen help, Hoyer again attempted to identify bargain buys.  However, he noted in January, “I do think the buy-low reliever market has been a lot higher than the past. It’s made that job difficult.”  So far, Hoyer has matched up with a pair of righties: Michael Fulmer and Brad Boxberger.  There’s been talk of adding a lefty, and Zack Britton and Mike Minor remain on the market with eight days left until Opening Day.

The bulk of the Cubs’ offseason comes down to a pair of long-term deals from the second tier of their respective positions in Swanson and Taillon.  Those two should help, and it’s possible Bellinger and/or Mancini have resurgent seasons.  On the other hand, the Cubs lost a very good catcher in Contreras.  Overall, the Cubs look a little bit better on paper, though they remain lacking in star power.

For a club that has committed over $500MM in contracts over the last two offseasons, it still feels like the Cubs are being cautious.  Owner Tom Ricketts expressed a willingness to exceed the competitive balance tax “in the near future,” but perhaps not by a lot.  The CBT is set at $233MM this year, with the Cubs currently projected in the $219MM range.  The CBT rises to $237MM in 2024, $241MM in ’25, and $244MM in ’26.

Assuming Marcus Stroman and Mancini opt out after the season, the Cubs’ projected CBT payroll for 2024 will be south of $100MM, leaving plenty of spending room for next offseason.  While the Cubs have several interesting prospects, their farm system is not teeming with near-MLB-ready future stars, and it’s not clear exactly how Hoyer and company will pull the team out of its current rut.

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll)

How would you grade the Cubs’ offseason?
B 52.79% (1,525 votes)
C 26.17% (756 votes)
A 11.66% (337 votes)
D 5.68% (164 votes)
F 3.70% (107 votes)
Total Votes: 2,889

Jose Altuve To Miss About Two Months Due To Thumb Surgery

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March 22: Brown today informed reporters, including Rome, that Altuve’s surgery has now taken place. The estimated timeline is two months before Altuve can resume baseball activities.

March 19: Astros general manager Dana Brown informed reporters, including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that second baseman Jose Altuve has a fractured right thumb and will undergo surgery in the “coming days.” There is no timetable for his return. Altuve left last night’s game in the World Baseball Classic after being hit on the hand by a pitch. Marly Rivera of ESPN had previously relayed that Altuve had indeed suffered a fracture, as feared.

The news obviously comes as a big blow to the defending World Series champions, as Altuve has been a cornerstone of the team for years. Not only has he been reliable in his excellent performance, but he’s also never really dealt with a significant injury until now. Over the past ten full seasons, going back to 2012, Altuve has never played fewer than 124 games in an individual campaign. That low tally came in 2019, when a hamstring strain sent him to the injured list for just over a month. Apart from that, all his trips to the IL have been fairly minor, meaning he is now likely facing the most lengthy absence of his career. Though the club hasn’t provided a timetable for Altuve’s return, there’s no doubt that he’s facing a significant absence. Bryce Harper suffered a thumb fracture last year and ended up missing two months of the season. Every injury and recovery is different, but it would be reasonable to expect a similar path ahead for the Astros second baseman.

Altuve, 33 in May, has been one of the better players in the league in that time but is coming off one of his best seasons to date. He hit 28 home runs, stole 18 bases and walked in a career-high 10.9% of his trips to the plate. His .300/.387/.533 batting line resulted in a 164 wRC+, a career-high figure that indicated he was 64% better than the league average hitter. Defensive metrics were split on the value of his glovework, but he was still ranked as being worth 6.6 wins above replacement by FanGraphs, his highest tally in that department since the infamous sign-stealing season of 2017.

The exact date of his return will depend upon how long it takes to heal and then how much time he needs to get back into game shape after his layoff, but it seems like it will be a decent chunk of the schedule either way. While Altuve figures to be back for the latter months of the season, the club will have to figure out how to man the keystone for the time being. Mauricio Dubón, David Hensley and Rylan Bannon are the options on the 40-man roster, while Dixon Machado is in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Dubón is the most experienced of the bunch, having played in 262 games at the big league level. He’s capable of playing each outfield position and the three infield spots to the left of first base, and is generally considered to be a good defender anywhere he’s placed. The problem is on offense, as he’s hit just .244/.287/.366 in his career for a wRC+ of 77. It’s a fairly similar story for Machado, who is considered solid with the glove at shortstop, second or third base, but has hit just .226/.285/.292 in the majors for a wRC+ of 56. He’s not currently on the 40-man and won’t be optionable if he’s selected at some point. Hensley had a great debut last year, but in a tiny sample of just 16 games. He was also good in Triple-A, however, hitting .298/.420/.478 over 104 games last year. Bannon has just five MLB games under his belt but has bounced around the waiver wire in the past year due to strong work in the minors.

That group gives the Astros plenty of options but none of them will be expected to replace the production of Altuve. It’s also possible that the club could look outside the organization for some help, but there are challenges to doing that at this time of year. The free agent market has been largely picked over, leaving veteran journeymen like Andrelton Simmons and Jonathan Villar as some of the best options available. Trades are also difficult to line up at this time of year, with most teams generally feeling settled with their rosters as Opening Day approaches. Perhaps the Yankees would be willing to deal Isiah Kiner-Falefa or Gleyber Torres with youngsters like Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza pushing for more playing time, but they might also prefer to hang onto those players just in case the younger guys struggle in their first extended tastes of major league action. As Spring Training winds down, teams will make their final cuts and a few more players will shake loose, though they might not be huge difference makers relative to the in-house options in Houston.

However the club decides to play things, they will no doubt be in a lesser position at second base for a while. They will surely still be in good shape overall, with a lineup of great hitters like Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, José Abreu and Yordan Alvarez. They have incredibly made it to the ALCS in each of the past six years, going to the World Series in four of those seasons and winning it twice. They seem poised to be strong yet again, but they will now be challenged by a couple of notable absences in the early going, as Lance McCullers Jr. will open the season on the injured list as well.

Royals Option Nick Pratto, Maikel Garcia

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The Royals announced Wednesday that they’ve optioned first baseman Nick Pratto, infielder Maikel Garcia and catcher Freddy Fermin to Triple-A Omaha.

Pratto, 24, will return for a third stint at a Triple-A level where he’s previously turned in a .241/.368/.528 batting line while hitting 38 home runs in 644 plate appearances. He had a strong showing this spring, batting .313/.378/.438 with a pair of doubles, a triple and a 13-to-4 K/BB ratio in 37 plate appearances. Pratto made his MLB debut in 2022, hitting .184/.271/.386 in 182 plate appearances. That said, he’s a former first-round pick (No. 14 in 2017) who entered the 2022 season as a consensus top-100 prospect. The Royals surely still view him as a potential long-term piece.

The presence of Vinnie Pasquantino at first base stands as a roadblock for Pratto, though heading into camp it was feasible that Pratto and Pasquantino would share the workloads at first base and designated hitter. At least in the early stages of the 2023 season, that won’t be the case, but Pratto’s demotion doesn’t necessarily indicate he’s in for a lengthy stay in Omaha. A strong early showing could put him right back in the big league plans. For the time being, it seems as though the Royals will use the DH spot to get at-bats for a number of players, including hot-hitting catcher/outfielder MJ Melendez.

The fact that Fermin was optioned out in spite of a .273/.360/.545 showing in 25 plate appearances seemingly indicates indication that Salvador Perez and Melendez will be the only catchers on the roster to begin the season. Fermin is the only other catcher on the Royals’ 40-man roster, although non-roster invitees Jakson Reetz and Jose Briceno are still in camp and could potentially be selected to the MLB roster.

Fermin, 27, made his big league debut in 2022 but appeared in just three games. He spent the bulk of the season in Omaha, where he batted .270/.365/.480 with 17 doubles and 15 homers in 348 plate appearances. At some point, it’s feasible to think the Royals could go with three catchers, allowing Melendez to log more time in the outfield and/or at designated hitter, but Fermin will head to Triple-A to begin the season.

Garcia, 23, is also being sent out despite a strong showing in Cactus League play. He’s posted a .355/.375/.516 showing with a homer, two doubles and two steals in 32 plate appearances. He split the bulk of the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, batting a combined .285/.359/.427 and logging regular work at shortstop. With Bobby Witt Jr., Nicky Lopez, Michael Massey, Hunter Dozier and Nate Eaton among the Royals’ infield options on the big league roster, the Royals have a crowded infield mix and seem to prefer Garcia getting regular at-bats in Omaha, which is sensible given that he’s one of the organization’s top-ranked prospects.

The Royals have more pitchers than position players on the 40-man roster, so optioning this trio out of big league camp seems to portend that as many as three non-roster invitees have a chance at claiming bench spots to open the year. Matt Duffy, Franmil Reyes, Johan Camargo, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Matt Beaty are among the non-roster veterans still in camp.

Brewers Notes: Burnes, Voit, Hiura, Bullpen

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Brewers ace Corbin Burnes was one of several recent players to speak publicly about the arbitration process, voicing some disappointment last month in some aspects of the team’s approach to the trial. Burnes has now enlisted the Boras Corporation as his new representation moving forward, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (via Twitter).

Asked directly last month whether his relationship with the team had been damaged at all, Burnes candidly acknowledged that it had been to some extent, and that there was “really no getting around that.” Given his likely price tag on the open market, the former Cy Young winner was already a long-shot extension candidate for the Brewers, and the shift in representation won’t change that perception. The Boras Corporation has a reputation for pushing its players to reach the open market, though there are plenty of notable exceptions in recent years. Xander Bogaerts, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Altuve, Stephen Strasburg and Chris Paddack are all Boras clients who signed multi-year extensions that pushed back their respective paths to free agency.

The Brewers are entering the 2023 season intent on contending for the playoffs and, even after trading Hunter Renfroe and Kolten Wong this offseason, reportedly made clear to other clubs that stars like Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames were unavailable. Their first half will be one to watch closely. If Milwaukee falls out of contention, that trio will figure to all resurface in trade rumblings, given their relative proximity to free agency.

Each of Burnes, Woodruff and Adames is controllable only through the 2024 campaign. (Ditto Eric Lauer, Rowdy Tellez, Matt Bush and Adrian Houser.) Milwaukee probably wouldn’t aggressively shop that group, but the Brewers did make a tough call by trading Josh Hader when he had just a season and a half of club control remaining last summer. If nothing else, teams will be trying to pry some of that talent away from Milwaukee if the Brewers indeed drop out of the postseason race before this year’s trade deadline.

Turning to more immediate matters, the Brewers have some key personnel decisions looming in the near future. Last week, I outlined the dilemma they’re facing regarding Keston Hiura and their right-handed-hitting bench depth, and GM Matt Arnold touched on the situation yesterday (link via Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). Hiura and non-roster invitee Luke Voit are competing for a similar role with the Brewers, and Arnold acknowledged that the club has some “tough decisions” to make. Arnold praised the “tremendous job” Voit has done so far in camp, noting that he’s done “everything he can possibly do” to make the club.

The 32-year-old Voit has indeed impressed, hitting .316/.333/.526 with a pair of homers — albeit with an ugly 11-to-1 K/BB ratio in 39 plate appearances. Hiura is hitting .156/.229/.219 with a 42.9% strikeout rate (15 punchouts in 35 plate appearances). Arnold praised the “electricity” in Hiura’s bat and touted the upside he’s flashed in the past, but the former first-round pick and top prospect is out of minor league options hasn’t performed with much consistency in recent years. Since his outstanding rookie season, Hiura’s strikeout woes have climbed, and he’s lost his grip on a regular spot in the lineup.

Voit had an opt-out clause in his minor league contract last week but agreed to push the date on that back to this Friday. The decision on whether to select him is in many ways linked to Hiura and perhaps to fellow right-handed-hitting bench options like Mike Brosseau and Owen Miller. Without mentioning specific names, Arnold seemingly acknowledged as much, stating: “…a lot of this comes down to not just [Voit], but the people around him and how this all works together is so important.” Both Brosseau and Miller offer more defensive versatility than Voit and Hiura, but both have minor league options remaining as well.

In the bullpen, the Brewers are continuing to narrow the competition. They optioned righties Jake Cousins and Elvis Peguero to Triple-A Nashville yesterday, but manager Craig Counsell made clear that both are squarely in the team’s 2023 plans (link via MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy).

“Jake and Peguero, those guys are going to definitely pitch for us,” Counsell said, adding that the calls could come early in the season if needed. Cousins has been impressive in brief looks over the past two seasons, showing huge ability to miss bats but also some worrying command issues. Peguero, acquired from the Angels in the previously mentioned Renfroe swap, fanned 11 of 35 hitters (31.4%) this spring but was always at risk of being sent out given the number of out-of-options arms the Brewers are currently rostering.

None of Houser, Joel Payamps, Javy Guerra, Bryse Wilson or Bush can be optioned to the minors. The only optionable members of the bullpen are closer Devin Williams, setup man Peter Strzelecki and southpaw Hoby Milner, but all three (Williams in particular, of course) are generally locked into spots, as are Bush and Houser.

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