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The Opener: Top Free Agent Logjam, Cardinals, Draft Lottery

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With the Winter Meetings fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout the day today:

1. Will the logjam at the top of the market loosen?

Even after Trea Turner and Justin Verlander came off the board, much of the top of the free-agent market could hinge on Aaron Judge. With the full attention of two major-market teams on Judge — the Yankees and Giants — some players at the top of the market may not sign until the reigning AL MVP has made a decision. Carlos Rodon, for example, has received interest from both the Yankees and Giants. It would be reasonable for him to want to wait until Judge makes a decision, in case missing out on Judge puts additional pressure on the losing bidder to get a deal done with him. Brandon Nimmo, the second-best outfielder on the market, is in a similar position. While Turner signed ahead of Judge, it’s certainly possible that the rest of the shortstop market could be held up by Judge, too. The Giants are known to have interest in Carlos Correa, and the Yankees could conceivably pivot to the shortstop market should Judge depart. That could also gum things up for the Twins, who are aggressive in their attempts to retain Correa but could pivot to Xander Bogaerts if Correa leaves. The Cubs, meanwhile, have been connected to each of Correa, Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson, with rumors yesterday even suggesting they could try and lure two of the three remaining shortstops to Wrigley. Though not as frequently connected to the shortstops as Chicago, the Cardinals have been mentioned as a potential suitor (for Swanson in particular), and the Dodgers could potentially look to replace Turner now that he’s agreed to join the Phillies.

2. Will the Cardinals find their catcher?

Yesterday, St. Louis president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told reporters that the team hopes to have a new starting catcher by the end of the Winter Meetings tomorrow. The Cardinals have been connected to A’s catcher Sean Murphy, as well as free agents such as Willson Contreras and Christian Vazquez. The Cards are sure to have competition on all of these fronts, however. Murphy is being pursued by the Rays and Guardians, among other teams, while Contreras has been linked to the Astros repeatedly, with manager Dusty Baker noting the team’s interest. Vazquez, meanwhile, is known to have more than half a dozen suitors and may pursue a pact for as many as four years this offseason. Should St. Louis miss on these options, they could pivot to free-agent catchers in the next tier, such as Mike Zunino and Omar Narvaez, or they could swing a trade with the Blue Jays, who are open to dealing a catcher with three on their roster: Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk, and Gabriel Moreno (with Jansen the most oft-rumored name to be available).

3. The MLB Draft Lottery is tonight.

In addition to the usual hot stove rumblings that accompany the Winter Meetings, at 7:30pm CT this evening, the inaugural MLB draft lottery will be held, where the top six spots in the 2023 MLB draft will be decided. The Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds, and Royals each have at least a 10% chance of landing the top pick in the draft, but every team that missed the postseason in 2022 has a chance, however small, to pick first in next year’s draft. Looking at the larger lottery as a whole shows that Washington, Oakland, and Pittsburgh have an 81% chance to pick somewhere in the top six, while the Brewers, the team with the best record to miss the postseason, have just a 2.1% chance to pick in the top six. Be sure to check in here at MLBTR throughout the day today for all the latest coverage and analysis of the Winter Meetings. You can also download our free Trade Rumors app on iOS or on Android and set up notifications for your favorite teams or any players of particular interest!

Padres Unlikely To Pursue Other Shortstops After Missing Out On Trea Turner

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The Padres’ bid to sign Trea Turner —  which reportedly included a larger offer than he accepted in Philadelphia, even after accounting for California’s higher income tax — caught plenty of fans and pundits off-guard. The Padres already have Fernando Tatis Jr., Ha-Seong Kim, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth as options in the infield, and San Diego also has a pair of $300MM players on the roster in Machado and Tatis (though the former could opt out following the 2023 season).

There’s been speculation (here included) about whether Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller will pivot and look into the remaining All-Star shortstops in free agency, but Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Turner was viewed as a special case and that the Padres were singularly interested in him, rather than adding another shortstop to the mix. As such, it’s unlikely that the Friars will pursue any of Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts or Dansby Swanson in the wake of being spurned by Turner. The Athletic’s Dennis Lin does write that the Padres have checked in with Bogaerts this offseason, but Lin adds that Turner was the team’s “clear” preference. MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds that the Padres have not spoken to Kim or Cronenworth about a position change at this time.

Preller acknowledged the team’s interest in Turner and the disappointment in not landing him when speaking with Acee and others on the San Diego beat Monday evening. Part of Turner’s appeal, as Preller explained, was his athleticism and experience playing positions other than shortstop, which the Friars believed could create some more flexible lineup choices.

Even if the Padres are out of the mix (or, at best, on the periphery) for the remaining shortstops, the strong bid for Turner is still plenty notable. It underscores that even with a star-studded roster and a payroll that many expected to be reaching its maximum levels, Padres ownership is willing to spend at levels commensurate with the sport’s very biggest financial powers. The Padres paid the luxury tax in 2022, have a projected $210MM bottom-line payroll in 2023 and a projected $230MM in luxury-tax obligations, per Roster Resource, but were apparently still content to put down a $300MM+ offer on Turner.

That doesn’t necessarily mean that San Diego will pivot and dive headlong into the bidding for Aaron Judge, but it also at least opens the door for speculation about such top-of-the-market pursuits. Preller spoke of a corner bat and a starting pitcher as his top needs. Acee suggests that San Diego has looked into reunions with Josh Bell and Brandon Drury in addition to the recently non-tendered Dominic Smith, illustrating the  vast breadth of possibilities the team is considering with Turner now in Philadelphia.

Dodgers, Rays Interested In Andrew McCutchen

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The Dodgers and Rays are among the teams with interest in free agent outfielder/designated hitter Andrew McCutchen, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. As Olney points out, McCutchen could very well topple a couple of career milestones in 2023, as he’s 52 hits shy of 2000 and 13 long balls away from the 300 mark.

McCutchen, 36, spent the 2022 season with the Brewers, for whom he slashed at a .237/.316/.384 pace through 580 trips to the plate. It was an uneven season for the 2013 NL MVP, as he stumbled out of the gates with a poor two-month stretch before catching fire in June and ultimately wilting again in the season’s final seven to eight weeks.

McCutchen’s run early in the summer at least showed that there’s still life in his bat — inconsistent as the production may be. The endpoints here are arbitrary, and any player can look better when focusing only on his hottest stretch of the season, but for a period of 262 plate appearances beginning on June 5, McCutchen mashed at a .288/.370/.498 pace, slugging 11 homers and 15 doubles along the way. Of course, it’s only fair to also point out that said hot streak was preceded by an absolutely frigid spell in which he collected just one hit in a span of 39 trips to the plate.

The peaks and valleys of McCutchen’s 2022 season resulted in a 98 wRC+ and 99 OPS+, suggesting that he was just barely shy of average at the plate for the season as a whole. Part of the downturn in production for McCutchen, who batted a combined .237/.343/.444 as a Phillie from 2019-21 (109 wRC+), was that his longstanding production against southpaws evaporated in 2022. McCutchen is career .300 hitter with a .936 OPS and 154 wRC+ against lefties, even including last year’s struggles, but this past season’s .221/.303/.434 slash when holding the platoon advantage was miles shy of his career standard.

On the defensive side of the coin, McCutchen played just 434 innings in the outfield, most coming in left — although the Brewers gave him 13 innings in center and 153 in right. Defensive Runs Saved (4), Ultimate Zone Rating (1.8) and Outs Above Average (0) all thought he was at least serviceable, if not a net positive in his limited work with the glove. However, McCutchen spent 82 games as Milwaukee’s designated hitter, too. It’s possible another team would view him as a viable option to log a larger workload in the outfield, but a return to his days of pllaying 1300-1400 innings in the outfield seems like a reach, given his age and recent usage.

In Los Angeles, McCutchen could give the Dodgers a right-handed complement to lefty-swinging 25-year-old James Outman, who had a huge season in the upper minors and also impressed in a tiny MLB debut (16 plate appearances). Tampa Bay is more set in the outfield but could still use McCutchen as a right-handed option off the bench, mixing him in for occasional work in the outfield corners and at designated hitter. It’s worth noting that McCutchen is a native of Fort Meade, Fla. and attended Fort Meade High School — about 75 miles from the Rays’ Tropicana Field.

McCutchen played the 2022 season on a one-year, $8.5MM contract, and it seems quite likely that he’ll be ticketed for another one-year deal wherever he lands — be it with the Dodgers, Rays or another team.

Pirates Looking To Add Starting Pitching

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While all of the talk out of the Pirates in the past few days has centered on outfielder Bryan Reynolds wanting a trade out of Pittsburgh, the team remains focused on additions. Per a report from Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic, pitching is a priority for Pittsburgh, and general manager Ben Cherington has the budget to potentially acquire two veteran starters.

“I don’t know if we will, but we could if we wanted to or the right matches lined up,” Cherington said.

The Bucs were reportedly interested in adding Kyle Gibson before he wound up signing a one-year, $10MM deal with the Orioles. It’s unknown whether or not the Pirates got to the point of making an offer to Gibson, but their interest there can be used to identify potential other targets, and Biertempfel names Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough as possible options.

Roansy Contreras and Mitch Keller are both penciled into the top two spots in Pittsburgh’s rotation. Contreras flashed some quality stuff in his rookie year, while Keller put together his best season with the Pirates, making 29 starts and pitching to a 3.91 ERA. JT Brubaker is the other name who will certainly return as a back-of-the-rotation arm.

Outside of that trio, the Pirates have Bryse Wilson, Johan Oviedo and Zach Thompson as options. They also have a number of pitching prospects breaking into the upper-minors, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Kyle Nicholas or Mike Burrows are part of the picture at some point next year.

Nonetheless, a veteran addition to stabilize things makes plenty of sense. Cherington’s comments certainly don’t sound like it’s likely that the team signs two veteran starters, but at least one should arrive. Biertempfel’s report also notes that Cherington is willing to consider the trade market for options, as well as looking into multi-year deals.

Pittsburgh’s had a lot of success with low-profile additions to their rotation in recent years. In 2021, they signed Tyler Anderson to a one-year, $2.5MM deal and flipped him to Seattle at the deadline for prospects Carter Bins and Joaquin Tejada. This year, Jose Quintana joined on a one-year, $2MM pact, he excelled and the Pirates were able to get Oviedo and Malcolm Nunez from the Cardinals at the deadline. Another deal with a low-cost addition that the Pirates can potentially turn into a trade chip at the deadline seems likely next season as well.

Phillies To Focus On Mid-Rotation Starters, Back-End Relievers

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After agreeing to an 11-year, $300MM deal with shortstop Trea Turner, the Phillies will now focus on pitching, specifically mid-rotation starters and back-end relievers, according to Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer. That’s unlikely to be through signing players with a qualifying offer attached, per a quote from president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski (relayed by Alex Coffey).

Dombrowski was asked about the likelihood of the Phillies signing two players with qualifying offers attached (they’ve already added one in Turner) and had this to say: “Probably not very much. One seems like a lot already. I don’t think we’d have much of an appetite for that. Not saying we never do it, but I would say there’s not much of an appetite.” 

Chris Bassitt, Nathan Eovaldi and Carlos Rodon are the remaining starters on the market that have a qualifying offer attached, but there’s plenty of other options out there. Philadelphia could pursue a reunion with Noah Syndergaard, or go after Jameson Taillon, who they’ve already been linked to. Other options could include Andrew Heaney, Taijuan Walker and Sean Manaea.

Philadelphia did see Zach Eflin sign with the Rays this off-season, Kyle Gibson head south to Baltimore and Syndergaard hit free agency, so it’s not surprising they’re looking to bolster their rotation as they look to return to the World Series in 2023. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler will be back atop their rotation, with Ranger Suarez and probably Bailey Falter taking four of the spots. They do have some strong pitching prospects, including Andrew Painter and Mick Abel, working their way through the minors, but a solid, mid-rotation arm would slot in nicely to provide a bit of stability.

On the relief side of things, Corey Knebel, David Robertson and Brad Hand all departed, leaving the team a bit thin in the bullpen. Seranthony Dominguez, Andrew Bellatti and Jose Alvarado will all be back, but in a competitive NL East the Phillies will need a deep bullpen. They could bring back any of the trio of free agent relievers, or target relief arms such as Taylor Rogers or Andrew Chafin.

As far as payroll goes, the signing of Turner brings them closer to the $233MM luxury tax threshold. They’re currently sitting approximately $15MM under that mark with Turner on board, and it’d be challenging for them bring in a mid-rotation starter and strong relief options and stay within that mark.

KBO’s Kia Tigers Close To Signing Adonis Medina

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Former Mets pitcher Adonis Medina is close to heading to Korea and joining the Kia Tigers, according to MHN Sports (relayed by Sung Min Kim).

Medina, 26 later this month, pitched 23 2/3 innings for the Mets this year, striking out 15.5% of batters and walking 5.5% on the way to a 6.08 ERA. Advanced metrics looked upon his performance a little more favorably, with his FIP coming in at 4.04. He spent most of the season shuttling between the big leagues and Triple-A and was optioned nine times during the year. At Triple-A, he had a 4.65 ERA through 31 innings.

Signed out of the Dominican Republic by the Phillies back in 2014, he worked his way up through their minor league system before making his debut in 2020. Across 2020-21, Medina threw 11 2/3 innings for the Phillies for a 3.86 ERA.

The Pirates claimed him off waivers prior to the 2022 campaign, and spent the spring with Pittsburgh before they designated him for assignment at the start of the season and subsequently traded him to the Mets. The Mets outrighted him off the roster in September and he elected free agency at the end of the season.

Medina will head to the KBO young enough that a strong season or two over there could stand him in good stead to return to the States and seek big league deals in the future.

Giants Looking To Add Two Outfielders

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It’s no secret that the Giants are in the thick of a pursuit for the game’s top free agent outfielder Aaron Judge, but president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi says the team is looking to add a couple of outfielders this winter (via Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area).

The Giants’ talks with Judge “are continuing” and the Giants “have really strong interest” in adding the AL MVP says Zaidi. Yet Judge may not be the only new possible new face patrolling the outfield at Oracle Park in 2023, with Zaidi looking to add more than one.

That the Giants would look to add two outfielders this winter is interesting, though perhaps not surprising. As things stand, they have LaMonte Wade Jr., Mike Yastrzemski, Joc Pederson, Austin Slater and Luis Gonzalez in the mix for outfield playing time. Pederson seems likely to spend plenty of time at DH, while Gonzalez has a minor league option remaining and may be better suited as a depth piece, as too might Wade Jr.

The Giants have already been linked with Mitch Haniger, Brandon Nimmo and Cody Bellinger this winter, as well as Judge, although it’s not known if they were looking at the previous trio as contingencies to Judge or in addition to him. Of course, it’s not necessarily as simple as that, and while the Giants have the financial muscle to make plenty of moves, it’d seem more likely they’d go after Nimmo in the event they miss out on Judge, while the likes of Haniger and Bellinger – who will command smaller deals than Nimmo – might be more attractive as options alongside a hypothetical Judge signing.

Outside of that trio of options, the likes of Andrew Benintendi and Michael Brantley could make sense. On the trade market, Bryan Reynolds handed in a trade request to the Pirates over the weekend, and it’s certainly possible the Giants could have interest in bringing back a player they drafted and developed.

While the outfield looks to be an area of focus for the Giants, Zaidi also said they’re looking to add a starting pitcher (via Evan Webeck of Mercury News). They’ve reportedly been interested in bringing back Carlos Rodon, but Zaidi was asked about adding a No. 2 starter behind Logan Webb and said “we’ve kind of got other needs”. That suggests that any starting pitcher addition is more likely to come from the mid-tier of options, with names such as Kodai Senga, Taijuan Walker and Jameson Taillon among the options.

Marlins Interested In Justin Turner

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The Marlins have checked into Justin Turner’s market, The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Turner entered free agency after the Dodgers declined their $16MM club option on the veteran infielder.

Turner has spent the last nine seasons in Los Angeles, becoming a fan favorite and a key figure in the Dodgers’ success.  Despite being something of an afterthought early in his career with the Orioles and Mets, Turner blossomed once coming to L.A., hitting .296/.375/.490 with 156 homers over his 4220 plate appearances in a Dodger uniform.  The highlights included two All-Star appearances, NLCS MVP honors in 2017, and the Dodgers’ World Series championship in 2020.

Though 2022 was Turner’s age-37 season, he still provided a very solid 123 wRC+ by hitting .278/.350/.438 with 13 homers in 532 PA.  Given how Turner struggled badly in the first three months before catching fire later, it is quite possible that the lockout and the abbreviated Spring Training threw off Turner’s usual routine, leaving him in need of some time to get fully ramped up.  This bodes well for his chances of continuing to hit even as he gets deeper into his late 30’s.

The Dodgers’ decision to decline Turner’s option may have been simply more about flexibility than a reflection of the team’s feelings about Turner’s production going forward, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman has said that the team wants to bring Turner back for the 2023 campaign.  Turner has re-signed with the Dodgers in past trips to free agency, and yet if he is looking for a new chapter, the Marlins are one of many teams that should have interest in a reliable veteran bat who might not be overly expensive.

MLBTR projected Turner for a one-year, $14MM contract, which should work even with the Marlins’ rather modest budget.  Turner’s veteran leadership would also boost a young Miami clubhouse, and he would be reunited with former Dodger co-hitting coach Brant Brown, who was recently hired as the Marlins’ hitting coach.

On the field, Turner’s production would upgrade a lineup that has been among the league’s worst for two seasons running.  Brian Anderson was non-tendered, leaving third base wide open for Turner — utilityman Joey Wendle can play all over the diamond, perhaps only getting some third base time when Turner is getting a DH day, or perhaps playing first base.  With the Marlins focusing on improving their contact hitting, Turner would be an excellent fit given his career-long ability to put the ball in play and avoid strikeouts.

James Kaprielian Undergoes Shoulder Surgery, Expected To Be Ready For Spring Training

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Right-hander James Kaprielian underwent surgery to fix his right AC joint, Athletics manager Mark Kotsay told reporters (including Evan Webeck of the Bay Area News Group) today at the Winter Meetings.  It doesn’t appear to be a terribly serious procedure, as Kotsay didn’t “think it’s a concern,” and the skipper felt Kaprielian should be recovered in time for Spring Training.  “There’s all kinds of variables that can place from now until February but the expectation is that he will be ready,” Kotsay said.

2022 was Kaprielian’s third Major League season, and he posted a 4.23 ERA, 17% strikeout rate, and 10.2% walk rate over 134 innings.  Those rates are well below the league average, adding to an altogether uninspiring Statcast page for the 28-year-old.  Kaprielian’s ERA well outpaced his 5.02 SIERA, and he benefited from a .263 BABIP, with his solid hard-contact numbers also helping limit the damage on balls hit into play.

While the bottom-line numbers are pretty similar to Kaprielian’s 2021 statistics, his strikeout and walk rates both dropped off heavily, and his hard-hit ball numbers significantly improved (Kaprielian also had a .274 BABIP in 2021).  It could be that the right-hander might become more consistent and perhaps just better overall now that he has undergone this procedure, as Kaprielian missed time early in the 2022 season due to an inflamed AC joint, and he also spent time on the injured list in 2021 with a shoulder impingement.

Good health is obviously key to Kaprielian’s chances of returning to the Athletics’ rotation, but he’ll be helped by something of a wide-open competition for starting jobs.  According to Kotsay, Cole Irvin is the only in-house starter guaranteed a spot in the starting five, with Kaprielian, Paul Blackburn, Ken Waldichuk, JP Sears, Adrian Martinez, Adam Oller, Zach Logue, and A.J. Puk among the candidates battling for starting roles.  The rebuilding A’s probably figure to add at least one veteran pitcher on a minor league contract or a low-cost big league deals, perhaps with an eye towards flipping that veteran to a contending team at the trade deadline.

Cubs Have Met With Carlos Correa At Winter Meetings

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The Cubs have had discussions with Carlos Correa in the past 24 hours, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and manager David Ross all attended the meeting. Levine also notes the team has had recent discussions with both Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson – the other two top shortstops remaining after Trea Turner agreed to a deal with the Phillies.

Both Correa and Bogaerts in particular have been strongly linked to the Cubs this off-season, and although it’s not yet known whether or not either has received an offer, Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times relays information from Cubs general manager Jed Hoyer’s media availability stating the team has made multiple offers to free agents this winter, and that the team is heavily focused on free agency over trades at the moment.

In the wake of Turner coming off the board on an 11-year, $300MM deal, there seems sure be a greater sense of urgency among the teams seeking to sign one of the top free agent shortstops. The Cubs have long been speculated as a possible landing spot for one of the “big four” (now big three) shortstops. They’re a team with plenty of financial muscle that’s looking to make a splash and return to winning ways, so inking a marquee free agent makes plenty of sense.

Correa only turned 28 in September, so he’s still young enough to be a long-term piece for a Cubs team that may not have all the pieces it needs to compete for a championship in 2023. Correa also comes with the added benefit of avoiding draft pick compensation, as he already received one last winter before signing his short-term deal with the Twins.

He’s also coming off yet another elite season, one in which he was worth 4.4 fWAR with the Twins. He slashed .291/.366/.467 with 22 home runs for a wRC+ of 140. He experienced a dip in defensive ratings, but was still worth 3 Defensive Runs Saved, though that was the lowest mark of his career.

MLBTR predicted a nine-year, $288MM deal for Correa, although in light of Turner’s deal with Philadelphia, it’s not hard to imagine Correa’s contract heading north of the $300MM mark. The Cubs currently have a projected payroll of $127MM, per RosterResource, which, for a team that has seen payrolls in excess of $200MM recently, leaves plenty of room for a Correa-sized addition and more.

Of course, Correa’s market is expected to be robust, with the Twins making a strong effort to re-sign him, and the Giants and other teams likely to be interested. With that in mind, it makes sense that the team is remaining engaged with Swanson and Bogaerts as well. Levine reports that Chicago met with Bogaerts ten days ago. Swanson is a year older than Correa, while Bogaerts is 30, and while both are elite players in their own right, both will probably command smaller commitments than Correa.

While there’s been plenty of talk of the Cubs signing one of the top shortstops, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that the team could sign two of the shortstops. In that case, it’d likely be Bogaerts and Swanson signing, rather than Correa and one of the other two, and it’d be contingent on Bogaerts moving to third base. Needless to say, with the widespread interest in all three players, it’d be a challenge for the Cubs to win the bidding for two of them, but it’s an interesting added layer to consider.

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