MLBTR’s Anthony Franco held an Astros-specific chat regarding the team’s offseason outlook. Click here to view the chat transcript.
Athletics, Pablo Reyes Agree To Minor League Deal
The A’s have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder/outfielder Pablo Reyes, per Baseball America’s Chris Hilburn-Trenkle. Presumably, the deal includes an invite to Major League Spring Training, though the team has not formally announced the deal or indicated as much. Reyes was outrighted by the Brewers last month and subsequently became a minor league free agent.
Reyes, 29, has appeared in parts of four Major League seasons, logging time with the 2018-19 Pirates and the 2021-22 Brewers. He’s appeared in 147 Major League games, tallied 323 trips to the plate and posted a combined .238/.307/.361 batting line in that time. Along the way, he’s played 355 innings in the outfield (mostly in the corners but 68 innings in center), 171 innings at third base, 54 innings at second base and 47 innings at shortstop.
While Reyes received just 16 Major League plate appearances in 2022 (going 4-for-15 in that short stint), he enjoyed a solid year in Triple-A Nashville, batting .273/.348/.439 (110 wRC+) with 11 home runs, 27 doubles, a pair of triples and 15 steals. Reyes has fanned in 15.5% of his Triple-A plate appearances across the past two seasons, showing a good knack for contact, and has also walked at a 9.2% rate.
Reyes is out of minor league options, so if he earns a spot on the big league roster with the A’s at any point, he’ll need to stick or else be placed on waivers before he can be sent back to the minors. He’ll have to vie for a job in Spring Training and perhaps early in the season in Triple-A, but his right-handed bat could be a natural complement to a platoon-heavy A’s club that’ll feature lefties like Tony Kemp, Seth Brown and perhaps some combination of Vimael Machin, Cody Thomas, Cal Stevenson and Conner Capel. In 134 Major League plate appearances against lefties, Reyes is a .276/.336/.480 hitter.
The Opener: Thanksgiving Signings, Harper, Chats, Free Agent List
As the offseason continues to chug along, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on throughout baseball today:
1. Will Any Deals Get Closed Before The Holiday?
The days leading up to Thanksgiving have, in previous offseasons, seen a small spike in activity, as free agents who are looking to have their new team settled ahead of the holidays try to push deals across the finish line. In the past few offseasons, Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, Kendall Graveman, Aaron Loup, Kyle Gibson, Drew Pomeranz, Yan Gomes and Charlie Morton have all agreed to terms within 48 hours of Thanksgiving. This can apply to the trade market as well, as the Angels’ acquisition of Hunter Renfroe just last night shows. In addition to last night’s deal, recent offseasons have seen the Rockies and Reds connect on a swap of relievers and the Padres and Brewers complete a four-player trade involving all big leaguers, among other smaller trade agreements.
2. Bryce Harper’s Surgery Is Today
Recently extended Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski announced last week that star outfielder Bryce Harper will undergo surgery on his elbow today to repair a damaged ulnar collateral ligament. This is of particular note because the team and doctors alike won’t be certain whether Harper requires a full ligament replacement (Tommy John surgery) or an internal brace procedure until he actually goes under the knife, leaving his timetable for return uncertain to this point. Once today’s procedure is complete, there will be far more clarity on how much time Harper can be expected to miss in 2023.
3. A Few MLBTR Features
The final two Offseason Chats will be held today, putting the finishing touches on MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco will be hosting a team-specific chat for the reigning World Series champion Astros at 11am CT today, while Steve Adams will hosting an A’s-specific chat later in the day at 2pm CT. Astros fans can click here to leave a question for Anthony in advance and, in the meantime, check out the Astros’ Offseason Outlook. A’s fans can leave a question in advance here and go back through Oakland’s Offseason Outlook for a refresher, if you like. Regardless of which club you follow, if you’re looking ahead to the meat of your team’s offseason, it’s also worth noting that our 2022-23 MLB Free Agent List has been updated to include last week’s wave of non-tendered players. You can check that out for a comprehensive look at who’s available on a position-by-position basis. (Note: the incorrect link to the free agent list has been updated; apologies on the error)
Angels Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Brewers
The Angels’ early-offseason aggressiveness continues. The Halos announced the acquisition of outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the Brewers on Tuesday night. Pitchers Janson Junk, Elvis Peguero and Adam Seminaris head to Milwaukee in return.
It’s the third early strike of the offseason for the Halos, who’ve already signed starter Tyler Anderson to a three-year free agent deal and acquired infielder Gio Urshela in a trade with the Twins. Now, they take a step towards fixing an outfield that had a major question mark alongside Mike Trout and Taylor Ward.
Renfroe should solidify the corner outfield spot opposite Ward. He’s been an above-average hitter in each of the past two seasons, with strikingly similar production for the Red Sox in 2021 and Brewers this year. The former first-rounder has combined for 60 home runs over the last two seasons, following up a 31-homer showing with the Sox with 29 more in Milwaukee. He had an identical .315 on-base percentage in each year but more than offset that modest number with big power production.
The right-handed hitter has hit between .255 and .260 in each of the last two years while slugging around .500 both seasons. He has a cumulative .257/.315/.496 line in just under 1100 plate appearances going back to the start of 2021. His 22.9% strikeout rate is right around average, while he’s walked at a slightly below-average 7.6% clip. He’s a lower-OBP slugger who has particularly decimated left-handed opposition. Renfroe carries a .269/.357/.508 line over that stretch while holding the platoon advantage. He’s had starker on-base concerns but hit for enough power to remain a decent option against right-handed pitching (.252/.292/.491).
That power production is Renfroe’s calling card, but he’s also a viable defender. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him right around league average in right field in each of the last three seasons. Statcast’s range-based metric has Renfroe a few runs below average annually, but he compensates for his fringy athleticism with top-tier arm strength. He’s picked up double-digit assists in each of the last two years, and he leads all MLB outfielders with 27 baserunners cut down in that time.
Renfroe’s excellent arm strength has kept him primarily in right field over the past few years, although he did log a number of innings in left earlier in his career. If he steps into right field at Angel Stadium, that’d push Ward over to left field. Former top prospect Jo Adell now looks as if he’ll be relegated to fourth outfield/bench duty after beginning his career with a .215/.259/.356 showing in roughly one full season’s worth of games. Adell is still just 23 years old and coming off a solid year in Triple-A Salt Lake, but the Angels don’t appear prepared to count on him for a regular role as they look to vault their way into the playoff picture in 2023.
As with last week’s Urshela trade, the Renfroe acquisition is about deepening the lineup with a productive but not elite veteran for a season. Renfroe turns 31 in January and is in his final season of club control. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for an $11.2MM salary, and he’ll be a free agent at the end of the year. That’s a reasonable sum for a player of this caliber, but one moderately expensive season of arbitration control over a lower-OBP corner slugger isn’t teeming with trade value. Renfroe is the second player of that ilk dealt in as many weeks.
The Blue Jays sent Teoscar Hernández to the Mariners for reliever Erik Swanson and pitching prospect Adam Macko. That trade came as a surprise to a number of Toronto fans, but each of Swanson and Macko are arguably more appealing players than any of the trio of pitchers Milwaukee received in this swap. Hernández is a better hitter than Renfroe is, but the gap between the former’s .282/.332/.508 line over the past two seasons and the latter’s production isn’t all that dramatic. Nevertheless, Renfroe has had a hard time sticking in any one spot as his price tag has escalated throughout his arbitration seasons. The Halos will be his fifth team in as many years, as he’s successively played for the Padres, Rays, Red Sox and Brewers going back to 2019.
Adding his projected arbitration salary pushes the Halos’ estimated 2023 payroll up to around $192MM, per Roster Resource. That’d be the highest mark in franchise history, narrowly topping their approximate $189MM figure from this past season. They’re up to roughly $206MM in luxury tax commitments, around $27MM shy of the $233MM base threshold. The franchise’s spending capacity this winter has been in question with owner Arte Moreno exploring a sale of the franchise. There’s still no indication the club is willing to approach luxury tax territory, but the acquisitions of Anderson, Urshela and Renfroe have tacked on an estimated $31.9MM in 2023 spending. The latter two players represent one-year investments, but it seems Moreno is affording general manager Perry Minasian and his group some leeway to add to the roster in advance of the club’s final season of control over defending AL MVP runner-up Shohei Ohtani.
The Brewers add a trio of pitchers, two of whom already have big league experience. Junk is a former 22nd-round pick of the Yankees. He went to the Halos in the 2021 deadline deal that sent southpaw Andrew Heaney to the Bronx. The right-hander has pitched in seven MLB games over the past two seasons, starting six. He’s allowed a 4.74 ERA through 24 2/3 innings, striking out a below-average 19.4% of opponents but posting a sterling 4.4% walk rate.
Junk, 27 in January, leans primarily on a low-80s slider which prospect evaluators suggest could be an above-average pitch. He has decent spin on his 92-93 MPH four-seam but hasn’t cemented himself on a big league staff to this point. He spent most of this year on optional assignment to Salt Lake, where he posted a 4.64 ERA through 73 2/3 innings as a starter in a hitter-friendly environment. His 22.1% strikeout percentage was a touch below average, but he only walked 5.8% of opponents. The Seattle University product still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and can bounce between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville as rotation or middle relief depth.
Peguero, on the other hand, is a pure reliever. The righty debuted with three appearances as a COVID replacement late in the 2021 season. He earned a permanent 40-man roster spot last offseason and appeared in 13 games this year. Tasked with low-leverage innings, Peguero put up a 7.27 ERA across 17 1/3 innings. He only struck out 15.6% of opponents but got swinging strikes on a more impressive 12% of his total pitches. The Dominican Republic native induced grounders on roughly half the batted balls he surrendered in the majors.
He also had an excellent year in Salt Lake, where he tossed 44 1/3 frames of 2.84 ERA ball. Peguero fanned 27.5% of batters faced against a quality 7.1% walk rate and racked up grounders at a huge 57.5% clip. Like Junk, Peguero leaned primarily on a slider during his MLB look, although he throws much harder. Peguero’s slider checked in at 91 MPH on average while his fastball sat just north of 96. He turns 26 in March and also has two options remaining, so the Brewers can deploy him as an up-and-down middle reliever while hoping he can translate his Triple-A success against big league opponents.
Seminaris went in the fifth round in the 2020 draft out of Long Beach State. A 6’0″ southpaw, he wasn’t ranked among the top 30 prospects in the Anaheim system at Baseball America. He traversed three minor league levels this year, showing well at High-A against younger competition but struggling as he climbed the minor league ladder. Altogether, he worked 101 2/3 frames of 3.54 ERA ball with a 22.1% strikeout rate and an 8.7% walk percentage. He’s not on the 40-man roster but will have to be added by the end of the 2023 season or be exposed in the Rule 5 draft.
While Milwaukee clearly likes all three mid-20’s hurlers, they’re each flexible depth options. Surely, a key motivator in the deal was reallocating Renfroe’s hefty arbitration projection. Slashing payroll wasn’t the sole impetus for the trade — the Brewers could’ve simply non-tendered Renfroe last week if they were committed to getting his money off the books — but GM Matt Arnold and his staff elected to clear some payroll room while bringing in a few depth arms of note.
The Brewers are projected for a salary around $115MM at Roster Resource thanks largely to an arbitration class that still includes Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames, among others. That’s about $17MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, and more roster shuffling figures to be on the horizon. Dealing a complementary player like Renfroe doesn’t suggest the Brewers are about to flip any of Burnes, Woodruff or Adames, but Milwaukee could consider moving second baseman Kolten Wong or a depth starter like Adrian Houser or Eric Lauer. They’ve already drawn some interest from the Mariners on Wong and are sure to contemplate a number of ways to try to balance the present and the future.
Milwaukee could now dip into the lower tiers of the free agent corner outfield market to backfill for Renfroe’s absence, with Tyrone Taylor standing as the current favorite for playing time alongside Christian Yelich and Garrett Mitchell in the outfield. Highly-touted young players like Sal Frelick and Joey Wiemer could play their way into the mix midseason, but it’d be a surprise if the Brewers didn’t add at least one veteran outfielder before Opening Day.
Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.
Charlie Barnes Re-Signs With KBO’s Lotte Giants
The Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization have agreed to a new contract with left-hander Charlie Barnes, as first reported by Ji-heon Pae (on Twitter). It’s a one-year deal that’ll guarantee the former big league hurler $1.2MM, MLBTR has learned. That’ll take the form of a $350K signing bonus and an $850K salary, and the contract also contains $50K in potential incentives.
Barnes returns for a second season with the Giants, who also re-signed outfielder Zach Reks last week. The Clemson product signed last offseason on a $610K guarantee, and he’ll nearly double that salary in year two after a strong debut campaign. Barnes took 31 turns through the Giants’ rotation, tossing 186 innings of 3.62 ERA ball. He punched out 20.3% of opponents and limited walks to an excellent 6% clip. Perhaps most impressively, he kept the ball on the ground for more than three-fifths of batted balls he surrendered, helping him limit home runs to just a 0.39 rate per nine innings.
That marked Barnes’ most extended action at the highest level of a country’s professional ranks. He logged a bit of major league time with the Twins prior to heading to South Korea. Barnes pitched in nine games (eight starts) for Minnesota in 2021, allowing a 5.92 ERA through 38 innings. The former fourth-round draftee had posted a 3.71 ERA over parts of four seasons in the Minnesota farm system.
Barnes is 27 years old. There have been a few examples — most prominently Merrill Kelly and Chris Flexen — of pitchers who’d been on the fringe of a 40-man roster getting a longer leash at the MLB level after finding success in South Korea. Veteran righty Drew Rucinski is hoping to be next in that line this winter. Barnes is certainly young enough to have a chance at following that path eventually, but he’ll focus his efforts for the time being on looking to help the Giants bounce back from a 64-76 campaign.
MLB Finds No Collusion Between Yankees, Mets Regarding Aaron Judge’s Free Agency
Major League Baseball has determined there was no agreement between the Mets and Yankees to suppress the market for top free agent Aaron Judge, reports Sean Gregory of TIME. The league had opened an investigation into the two teams last week after the MLB Players Association had raised some concerns about an article published by Andy Martino of SNY earlier this month.
Martino wrote the Mets were unlikely to pursue Judge in free agency, in part because of a mutual respect between Mets owner Steve Cohen and Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner.
As part of that piece, Martino wrote: “Talking to Mets people about this all through the year, the team in Queens sees Judge as a Yankee, uniquely tailored to be an icon in their uniform, stadium and branding efforts. Owners Steve Cohen and Hal Steinbrenner enjoy a mutually respectful relationship, and do not expect to upend that with a high-profile bidding war. The only way people involved can see the Mets changing course and pursuing Judge would be if the Yankees somehow declared themselves totally out of the bidding.”
To be clear, Martino didn’t characterize that as the sole reason the Mets could choose to sit out the Judge bidding, nor did he expressly state Cohen and Steinbrenner had talked about Judge’s free agency. He went on to note the Mets could be wary of signing another deal in excess of $300MM after extending Francisco Lindor last year.
The league requested communications between Cohen and Steinbrenner last week to determine if the owners formulated any kind of agreement for the Mets not to pursue Judge as a free agent, which would have been a collusive violation of the collective bargaining agreement. Mike Puma of the New York Post writes the league found nothing in those communications to support a finding of collusion.
That doesn’t necessarily bring the matter to a close, as the MLBPA still has the right to file a grievance on Judge’s behalf. If it chooses to do so, the case would go in front of an independent arbitrator. The union would have to demonstrate both that illicit communications between the Mets and Yankees did occur and that Judge’s market was impacted by those talks. The players union declined comment to both TIME and the New York Post as to whether it planned to dispute the league’s determination.
Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic also wrote last week the union could take issue with unrelated comments made by Astros owner Jim Crane to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com regarding the asking price of free agent ace Justin Verlander. Whether it plans to pursue a grievance in that matter also remains unclear, but the league was not expected to open an investigation into Crane’s statements.
Do The Royals Have A Problem Behind The Plate?
Since winning the 2015 World Series, the Royals have been on a downward trajectory. The went 81-81 in 2016 and have been below .500 in the five seasons after that. After rebuilding the farm for a few years, the club has been trying to return to contention over the past couple of seasons by giving out some aggressive contracts, at least by their modest standards. It hasn’t worked out, with the past two seasons resulting in a fourth and fifth place finish in the weak AL Central.
A significant factor in the club’s results has been that many of their top pitching prospects have struggled in the majors. Brady Singer seems to be front of the pack now, despite posting a 4.91 ERA in 2021 and getting demoted to the bullpen to start 2022. He wound up back in the rotation and finished the season with a 3.23 ERA. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall pick in 2019 but he has a 5.32 ERA in 199 2/3 innings thus far in the big leagues. Kris Bubic was taken 40th overall in 2018 but has a 4.89 ERA in over 300 MLB innings thus far. Jackson Kowar was selected 33rd overall in 2018 but has only been given 46 innings of action so far, in which he has a 10.76 ERA. Those are just a few examples of many.
For a team that doesn’t usually spend on marquee free agents, developing their own prospects into useful major leaguers is essential to their success and this is something they will need to get to the bottom of. Finding an explanation for all this likely won’t lead to a simple answer. It’s possible it has something to do with the scouting that led to those players being drafted in the first place, although public prospect evaluators have liked each of those players quite a bit. Perhaps it’s related to coaching or development in the minors. But it’s also possible the club’s major league catching is playing a role.
Salvador Perez has been the club’s catcher for over a decade now, having debuted in 2011 and firmly securing the job in 2013. He was the primary backstop as the club went to the World Series in consecutive years, winning the second trip in 2015. As much of that championship core moved on, he remained as the face of the franchise and unofficial captain. While he’s been above-average at the plate in each of the past three seasons, his defense is another matter.
Defensive Runs Saved has placed Perez at -5 in 2021 and -4 in 2022. Baseball Prospectus’ Catcher Defensive Adjustment gave him a -14.8 last year, which was last in the majors, and -14.1 this year, which was third-last. Though Perez has had success throwing out baserunners in his career, his pop time was ranked by Statcast as 50th out of 83 catchers this year.
In terms of framing, the problem appears to be more chronic. FanGraphs has only given him a positive grade in that department once, which was the shortened 2020 season. He posted a -19.6 and -12.6 over the past two campaigns, bringing his career tally to -106.5. That’s last in the majors among all catchers from 2011 to the present. Baseball Prospectus is fairly similar, as Perez has been tagged with a negative number in each season except for 2013 and 2020, with a -14.3 and -14.2 in the past two years. Statcast framing data only goes back to 2015, but it also isn’t fond of his work. Apart from an even zero in 2020, he has all negative numbers there, including a -8 this year, fifth-worst in the league, and a -18 last year, which was dead last.
All of this isn’t to say that Perez is solely responsible for the club’s pitching woes. As mentioned, baseball teams have dozens of coaches and analysts who all play a role in the results. But these numbers surely aren’t ideal when trying to mold a batch of pitching prospects into effective major leaguers. It’s also possible that health is playing a role, since Perez underwent left thumb surgery in 2022. He was supposed to be out of action eight weeks but returned after just over a month and maybe wasn’t 100%. If better health in 2023 leads to better outcomes, that would be fantastic for KC. But if it doesn’t and the problem persists, finding a solution will have multiple challenges.
For one thing, there’s the fact that Perez, who turns 33 in May, is still under contract for at least three more seasons. As part of an extension he and the club agreed to in 2021, he’ll get $20MM in 2023 and 2024, $22MM in 2025, and then a $13.5MM club option for 2026 with a $2MM buyout. For a low-spending team like the Royals, he’s easily their highest-paid player.
Due to Perez having the catching position on lockdown, that’s led to MJ Melendez playing elsewhere. Melendez was a highly-touted catching prospect when coming up through the minor league ranks, but he also played some third base and the corner outfield spots in the minors in order to open up new paths of getting into the lineup. He made it to the big leagues this year, making 65 starts behind the plate and 37 in the outfield.
The results of this have been mixed, to put it politely. At the plate, Melendez finished the season with a 99 wRC+. That’s just a hair below league average overall but slightly above average for a catcher. Defensively, all of the advanced metrics gave him poor grades for his work on the grass, which isn’t terribly surprising since he’s effectively learning on the fly out there. But his numbers behind the plate are also quite poor. DRS gave him a -18 in 2022, the worst in the majors. FanGraphs framing gave him a -15.7, also dead last. CDA at BP gave him a -18.6, also dead last. Their BlkR, a measure of a catcher’s blocking ability, gave him a -1.1, again, dead last. Statcast’s framing metric had him at -12, second-worst in the league.
To be fair to Melendez, he has been given sporadic playing time in his first taste of the majors, while also trying to learn other positions. Becoming a successful major league catcher is already challenging enough without those extra factors thrown in. He’s also still quite young, turning 24 years old later this month. Ideally, he’d be given a full-time catching job and have some time to refine his game and see if he can hack it in the majors, but it doesn’t seem like that will happen in Kansas City as long as Perez is there.
There’s been nothing to indicate the club is considering supplanting Perez as the everyday catcher, but even if they did, that path would have its own challenges. The Royals have a cluttered first base/designated hitter mix at the moment, with Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto, Ryan O’Hearn and Hunter Dozier all candidates for at-bats in those slots. Some of those guys are candidates to move to the outfield corners, though that’s less than ideal defensively and also could squeeze out guys like Drew Waters, Edward Olivares or Kyle Isbel.
Taken all together, it’s hard to figure out how to put these ingredients together in a way that leads to something appetizing. With Perez behind the plate, Melendez is likely serving as a part-time catcher and outfielder who isn’t great at either spot. Giving the job to Melendez crowds out the 1B/DH picture and doesn’t even necessarily lead to better work behind the plate. It’s possible that either arrangement leaves roadblocks in front of the young pitchers in the system.
Clearly frustrated by the continued losing, the club has decided a shakeup is in order. They recently fired their long-time baseball ops leader Dayton Moore, with general manager J.J. Picollo now in charge of baseball operations. They also made a change in the manager’s seat, firing Mike Matheny and replacing him with former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. They will be tasked with trying to turn a 65-win team into a contender. They’re looking up at a Cleveland team that just surged to the top and is built to stay strong for years to come. The White Sox and Twins had disappointing seasons in 2022 but will be looking to reload in 2022. There’s also a Tigers team that, though currently in a down cycle, is trying to overhaul its analytical systems and will surely spend aggressively once it does. The Royals have lots to deal with in the road ahead, but they might have to start by looking within.
Pirates Designate Hoy Park For Assignment
The Pirates announced they’ve designated infielder Hoy Park for assignment. The move creates a 40-man roster spot for first baseman Lewin Díaz, who has been claimed off waivers from the Marlins as previously reported.
Park landed in Pittsburgh alongside Diego Castillo in the increasingly regrettable deal that sent reliever Clay Holmes to the Yankees. Park had only appeared in one big league game with New York to that point, but he was sitting on an incredible .325/.475/.567 line in Triple-A. He looked like a plug-and-play middle infield option for the Bucs, but he never seized control of a spot in an uncertain second base mix.
The South Korea native hit .197/.299/.339 through 144 plate appearances down the stretch in 2021. He walked at a very strong 12.1% clip but didn’t make much of an impact on batted balls and struck out more than a quarter of the time he came to the plate. Park spent most of this past season as an upper minors depth infielder. He appeared in just 23 MLB games while suiting up 89 times at Triple-A Indianapolis.
In contrast to his incredible 2021 work at the minors’ highest level, Park hit .225/.332/.354 through 375 plate appearances there in 2022. He again showed a willingness to work deep counts, drawing walks at just shy of a 14% clip, and he was successful on all 14 of his stolen base attempts. Still, a 26.4% strikeout rate and a modest 10 home runs and 11 doubles contributed to a below-average offensive performance. He didn’t do much in his 60 MLB plate appearances this year, hitting .216/.276/.373 with a pair of longballs.
The Pirates are lacking a slam-dunk option to play second base after trading Kevin Newman to the division-rival Reds last week. General manager Ben Cherington recently told reporters they were open to addressing the position from outside the organization, and Park clearly had fallen to the bottom of the depth chart among their internal options. As things currently stand, Rodolfo Castro looks like the favorite to join Oneil Cruz in the middle infield, although Castillo and Ji Hwan Bae could battle for reps before accounting for any external pickups.
The Bucs will now have a week to trade Park or try to run him through waivers. His plate discipline and defensive flexibility could draw him some attention. He’s capable of playing anywhere on the infield, although he’s increasingly seen more time at second and third base than at shortstop. Park also has a bit of experience at each of the three outfield positions, making him a possible versatile left-handed bench bat. He’s yet to find much success against big league pitching, but he’s a career .250/.362/.368 hitter over parts of seven minor league seasons. Park still has a pair of option years remaining, so another team could stash him in the upper minors as depth if they’re willing to devote him a 40-man roster spot.
Brewers, Tobias Myers Agree To Minor League Deal
The Brewers have signed Tobias Myers to a minor league contract, reports Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The right-hander had been outrighted and eventually released by the White Sox in September.
Myers is a former 6th-round draftee of the Orioles. He’s never pitched in the major leagues but he’s been a frequent depth target for teams over the past 12 months. Traded from the O’s to the Rays in 2017, he pitched his way up to Triple-A in the Tampa Bay farm system last year. He would’ve been eligible for the Rule 5 draft last winter if not added to the 40-man roster, and the Rays dealt him to the Guardians for infield prospect Junior Caminero. Cleveland immediately added him to the 40-man, but that’s a deal they’d surely like back in retrospect.
The 24-year-old Myers had a dismal 2022 campaign. He was tagged for a 6.00 ERA over 14 starts with the Guardians’ top affiliate, and Cleveland dealt him to the Giants for cash in early July. Caminero, on the other hand, had huge numbers between rookie ball and Low-A and was recently named the #8 prospect in a deep Rays system by Baseball America. Myers would make just two Triple-A appearances with San Francisco before being designated for assignment and lost on waivers to the White Sox. He threw seven times for Chicago’s top affiliate, allowing an eye-popping 24 runs in 13 innings, before being released.
Clearly, it was a season to forget for the Florida native. Myers combined for a 7.82 ERA in 76 Triple-A frames, allowing 15 home runs with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. Still, he’s continued to intrigue a number of teams on the strength of his pre-2022 performance. During his final season in the Tampa Bay system, he combined for a 3.90 ERA across 117 2/3 innings with an excellent 30.5% strikeout percentage and just a 5.8% walk rate.
Milwaukee becomes the next team to take a shot at trying to get Myers back on track. He still has two minor league option years remaining, so if he can earn a 40-man roster spot, the Brewers could move him between Milwaukee and Triple-A Nashville as either rotation or multi-inning relief depth.
Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros
After a few years of near-misses, the Astros returned to the top of the league in 2022 by claiming their second title in franchise history. They’ve won 100-plus games in four of the last five full seasons and will be one of the top handful of championship favorites next season. Expectations are high as ever in Houston, but months of tension in the front office culminated in a change atop baseball operations just days after their parade. The Astros are suddenly one of the league’s more unpredictable teams going into the offseason — but there’s no question any moves are going to be geared towards maximizing their chances of a repeat.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Yordan Alvarez, DH: $115MM through 2028
- Lance McCullers Jr., RHP: $68MM through 2026
- Alex Bregman, 3B: $57MM through 2024
- José Altuve, 2B: $52MM through 2024
- Rafael Montero, RHP: $34.5MM through 2025
- Ryan Pressly, RHP: $30MM through 2024 (including buyout on 2025 vesting option)
- Héctor Neris, RHP: $9.5MM through 2023 (including buyout on 2024 vesting club/player option)
- Martín Maldonado, C: $4.5MM through 2023
Other commitments: $2MM buyout on Pedro Báez option, $1MM buyout on Will Smith option, $250K buyout on Trey Mancini option
Total future commitments: $373.75MM
Total 2023 commitments: $121.25MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)
- Framber Valdez (3.163): $7.4MM
- Kyle Tucker (3.079): $5.6MM
- Cristian Javier (3.000): $3.3MM
- José Urquidy (3.049): $3.2MM
- Ryne Stanek (5.038): $3.1MM
- Phil Maton (5.047): $2.5MM
- Mauricio Dubón (2.162): $1.2MM
- Blake Taylor (3.000): $800K
Non-tendered: Josh James
Total arbitration projection: $27.1MM
Free Agents
- Justin Verlander, Yuli Gurriel, Aledmys Díaz, Michael Brantley, Trey Mancini, Christian Vázquez, Will Smith, Jason Castro
For a remarkable sixth straight season, the Astros advanced to the AL Championship Series in 2022. The past four years had seen the season end on a disappointing note, with a defeat in either the ALCS or the World Series. That wasn’t to be this year, as the 106-win team swept the Yankees to secure the fifth pennant in franchise history. They finished the job with three straight wins after going down 2-1 against the Phillies, claiming the organization’s second World Series title.
With that kind of success, one would assume the good vibes would continue into the offseason. Towards the end of the year, however, reports emerged about tension behind the scenes — primarily between owner Jim Crane and general manager James Click. As Houston’s lead baseball executive saw his contract expire, the Astros entered the offseason with uncertainty about their long-term direction. Things came to a head when Crane offered Click a one-year contract extension — a proposal below the norm for an executive whose team had accomplished what the Astros have over the past three seasons. Click declined, and the Astros let him go thereafter.
For the first time in three-quarters of a century, the defending World Series winners parted with their baseball operations leader. Houston enters the offseason without a GM, and it doesn’t seem as if they’re in any rush to fill the vacancy. Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com last week he doesn’t envision hiring a new GM until after the calendar flips to 2023. In the meantime, the atypical front office structure sees Crane intricately involved in baseball decision-making. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported Crane personally oversaw the team’s first major offseason roster move — re-signing free agent reliever Rafael Montero on a three-year, $34.5MM deal that fairly easily surpassed expectations. Assistant GM’s Bill Firkus, Andrew Ball and Charles Cook are on hand to help shoulder day-to-day responsibilities.
There’s not a ton of clarity about how exactly things are playing out in the offices at Minute Maid Park, but it seems Crane is as or more involved in key decisions than any of his ownership peers. That’s not entirely new — he directly negotiated a contract with Justin Verlander last offseason and reportedly killed a deadline agreement to bring in Willson Contreras from the Cubs — but it makes Houston one of the more fascinating teams to watch.
Crane and his front office have plenty of decisions to make with a handful of key free agents. They’re already brought back Montero, but perhaps the biggest question is the same one they faced last winter: do they retain Verlander? They did so last year, but the circumstances are far different this time around. Last year, the future Hall of Famer was coming off nearly two full seasons lost to Tommy John surgery. They monitored his progress and guaranteed him $25MM on a bounceback, but they’d have to offer up quite a bit more to keep him in 2023 and beyond. Verlander responded to Houston’s gesture of faith with a Cy Young-winning campaign that saw him lead the majors with a 1.75 ERA through 175 innings.
Now, Verlander’s looking at multi-year offers that easily beat $25MM annually. Crane suggested to McTaggart that Verlander is seeking a pact rivaling or topping the three-year, $130MM deal secured by Max Scherzer last winter. Those comments could get the team in some hot water with the MLB Players Association — the CBA prohibits club personnel from airing a free agent’s asking price while speaking with the media — but it’s not an especially surprising revelation. Scherzer is the closest comparable for a recent aging, future Hall of Fame pitcher still working near the top of his game, although Scherzer was more than two years younger during his free agent trip than Verlander is now.
Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle has already reported the Astros are reluctant to go to three guaranteed years as a result. That raises the real possibility of the nine-time All-Star heading elsewhere after four-plus seasons in Houston. Needless to say, losing a pitcher of Verlander’s caliber would weaken the roster, although the Astros are as well-equipped as a team could be to withstand his potential departure.
The rotation still runs six deep among promising options under club control. Framber Valdez finished fifth in Cy Young balloting this past season and is capable of fronting a staff. Cristian Javier struck out a third of his opponents en route to a 2.54 ERA through 148 2/3 innings. He’s perhaps not yet a household name nationally, but his performance through his first three big league campaigns has bordered on elite. Lance McCullers Jr. is an upper mid-rotation caliber starter when healthy, and he’s only headed into the second season of a five-year extension.
That’s still a strong top three, while Houston has a handful of options at the back end. Luis Garcia has a 3.60 ERA across 312 2/3 innings the last two years. He hit a rough patch midseason but righted the ship during the final few weeks and has a strong multi-year track record. José Urquidy — who would’ve gone to the Cubs had the Contreras trade been approved — is the favorite for the #5 job. He doesn’t have eye-popping velocity or whiff rates, but he’s an excellent control artist who hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 in any of his four MLB seasons. Urquidy is the least exciting of the group, but he’s a rock-solid 4th/5th starter for a contender.
Dealing either of Garcia or Urquidy this offseason could be on the table. The front office showed a willingness to move from their rotation surplus to address other areas of the roster in the Urquidy – Contreras tentative agreement at the deadline. Crane killed the deal, but that was reportedly more a reflection of the team’s preference not to unseat Martín Maldonado behind the dish than it was a declaration Urquidy was unavailable. Urquidy still has three seasons of arbitration control remaining and is projected for a modest $3.2MM salary in 2023; Garcia, who’s yet to reach arbitration and controllable for four years, would have very strong trade appeal if Houston fielded offers.
Of course, the team would have less rotation depth heading into 2023 if Verlander did sign elsewhere. That could point towards an increased desire to stockpile in-house pitching, but Houston also could try to expand the role for their top prospect. Hunter Brown reached the big leagues the final month of this year. He started just two of his first seven outings, but it stands to reason the team would prefer to give him a long-term shot in the starting staff. Brown was dominant in his early big league look, allowing just two runs with a 22:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 20 1/3 innings.
No team can count on their same five starters all season, and perhaps the Astros are content to begin with Brown in the bullpen before stretching him out as a starter when injuries inevitably dictate turning to a depth option. Players like J.P. France and Brandon Bielak are on hand as additional depth, and Houston could turn to a lower-cost free agent swingman in the Trevor Williams or Chad Kuhl mold if they wind up dealing one of their starters.
Trading a starter would only be as a means of adding immediate help somewhere on the roster with more uncertainty. A few of those stand out, largely because of possible free agent defections. The Astros are going to have to bring in a first baseman via free agency or trade. Yuli Gurriel and Trey Mancini are each free agents and didn’t play all that well in 2022 regardless. Houston was linked to Anthony Rizzo before he re-signed with the Yankees, and they’re a viable fit for any of Josh Bell, José Abreu, Luke Voit or even a lower-cost Gurriel reunion. On the trade market, players like Rhys Hoskins or Rowdy Tellez could be available.
The rest of the infield is already in place, with José Altuve, Jeremy Peña and Alex Bregman locked in around the diamond. Altuve and Bregman still have multiple seasons remaining on contract extensions, while Peña has five seasons of club control following a fantastic rookie year. Aledmys Díaz is headed to free agency, but the respective presences of Mauricio Dubón and David Hensley should allow him to seamlessly replace him in a utility role. The outfield is a little less settled, with left field the primary area of concern with Michael Brantley heading to free agency.
Yordan Alvarez split his time between designated hitter and left field this past season. The superstar slugger will be in the lineup every day in some capacity, though where is to be determined by the club’s offseason moves. Click had told Rome shortly after the season ended the club considered Alvarez a possible everyday left fielder; it remains to be seen whether a Crane-led front office feels the same way. There are a handful of decent mid-tier corner outfielders who should be available in either free agency or trade. Mitch Haniger, Andrew Benintendi and Jurickson Profar are on the open market, while players like Jesse Winker, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Alex Verdugo could find themselves on the move via trade.
If the Astros are content with Alvarez playing left field, that’d open up the possibility for a more impactful offensive splash via the DH. Houston has again been linked to Contreras — now a free agent, albeit one who’d cost a signing team a draft choice after turning down a qualifying offer — at the start of this winter. Signing Contreras is likely to require the kind of four-plus year commitment the Astros have been reluctant to make under Crane, but he’d add to an already elite lineup and have the ability to rotate between DH and catcher.
Houston has inquired about possible impact center fielders in recent years, even as Chas McCormick has done well when given opportunities. The 27-year-old had a great postseason on both sides of the ball and should have the inside track on the center field job, but Houston could at least kick the tires on potential upgrades there as well. Bryan Reynolds has been a longtime trade target for a number of teams but still seems unlikely to leave Pittsburgh. The Diamondbacks have a few young center field-capable outfielders and could have interest in Houston’s rotation depth in a deal involving Alek Thomas or Jake McCarthy. Brandon Nimmo is the only free agent center fielder (aside from Aaron Judge) who’s clearly better than McCormick; Houston will probably check in but seems an unlikely fit for a nine-figure investment in center field. There’s no need for any changes in the final outfield spot, with Kyle Tucker controllable for three more seasons in right.
Maldonado is back at catcher for another season after vesting a $4.5MM option in his contract. He’s a non-factor offensively, but he’s beloved in the Houston clubhouse for his leadership skills. They’ll need a complement to him with Christian Vázquez and Jason Castro both hitting free agency, although well-regarded prospect Yainer Díaz has a bat-first skillset that makes for an interesting complement. The Astros will probably at least dip into the market for a veteran depth player, and their reported interest in Contreras hints at the potential for a bigger splash to split time at catcher and DH.
The only other area of even moderate concern is in the bullpen. Houston had a top three relief corps in 2022, and bringing back Montero to join Héctor Neris, Ryne Stanek and Bryan Abreu in bridging the gap to All-Star closer Ryan Pressly does a lot of the heavy lifting. Houston’s very thin from the left side, though, with Blake Taylor and Parker Mushinski representing their top options. Will Smith performed well after being acquired from the Braves in a deadline swap for Jake Odorizzi. The Astros bought out a $13MM option that always looked a bit hefty, but a reunion on a lower salary could be plausible. Andrew Chafin, Taylor Rogers, Matt Moore and Joely Rodríguez are among the other free agent options who could be of interest.
There are a few ways the offseason could go, and the Astros should have the financial ability to build upon their already great roster. The club’s current 2023 payroll estimate is a bit above $160MM, around $15MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark and almost $27MM below the franchise-record level, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Their luxury tax figure is in the $179MM range, according to Roster Resource, $54MM shy of the $233MM base tax threshold. Houston’s farm system has thinned out — both because of years of picking towards the back of the first round and draft pick forfeiture as punishment for the 2017 sign-stealing scheme. That could lead to a preference for free agency over the trade market, but the interest in a qualified free agent like Contreras suggests they’re not opposed to continue surrendering future value as they look to cement themselves as a true dynasty. Coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series, Crane will surely be aggressive in attacking the roster’s weakest points in some capacity.
In so doing, he’ll provide insight into how he prefers to build a roster. Reports have suggested Crane took issue with Click’s patience, with the owner favoring more bold strikes. How that manifests itself in the coming months will be fascinating, but no matter the club’s ultimate offseason path, one thing is certain. The Astros have one of the sport’s best rosters and will go into 2023 as one of the favorites for another championship.
In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held an Astros-centric chat on 11-23-22. Click here to view the transcript.
