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Ted Leonsis’ Group Emerging As Front-Runner In Nationals’ Ownership Sale

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2022 at 5:49pm CDT

Six months ago, the Lerner family announced they were exploring the possibility of a sale of the Nationals. As the offseason nears, some clarity has emerged on that process. David Aldridge, Britt Ghiroli and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic write that a group led by businessman Ted Leonsis is now the “clear front-runner” to eventually take over the Nationals. The Talk Nats blog first reported in late September the Leonsis group had broken through as the most likely party to buy the Nats.

Leonsis is already a key factor in the D.C. sports scene, as his Monumental Sports & Entertainment owns the NBA’s Wizards, the NHL’s Capitals and the WNBA’s Mystics. (The Lerners are a minority owner in that venture). Landing the Nationals would give Leonsis control over the D.C. franchises in three of the four major men’s sports leagues, The Athletic notes, a distinction currently only held by the Kroenke family that owns the Los Angeles Rams, Colorado Avalanche and Denver Nuggets. Leonsis isn’t mounting a solo ownership bid, however. The Washington Business Journal reported in August that private equity businessman David Rubenstein is also part of the group; it is unclear whether anyone else is involved.

Previous reports have also linked South Korean businessman Michael B. Kim and mortgage mogul Stanley Middleman to the sales process. There were reportedly upwards of five bidders in talks with the Lerner family at one point, but The Athletic reports that Leonsis’ group seized control roughly a month ago.

While it appears that Leonsis and company are now in the driver’s seat to push the deal across the finish line, the closing of the sale isn’t imminent. Aldridge, Ghiroli and Rosenthal hear the sale isn’t likely to be finalized before the December 4-7 Winter Meetings in San Diego. That appears to be the more optimistic end of the timetable, as The Athletic writes it’s possible the sale isn’t finished until after the calendar flips to 2023.

As The Athletic notes, Leonsis also controls his own regional sports network, NBC Sports Washington. Monumental Sports & Entertainment had previously purchased 33% of NBC Sports Washington, and it bought out NBCUniversal’s 67% share this past August. Not coincidentally, NBC Sports Washington holds the local broadcasting rights to Capitals, Wizards and Mystics games.

The Nationals’ local broadcasting contract currently runs through the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, which it shares with the Orioles. The Orioles own approximately 75% of the network, while the Nationals own the remaining share. The two franchises have been embroiled in rights fees litigation for the better part of a decade. The Washington franchise won a major victory in 2019 when an arbitrator ruled the Orioles owed the Nats $105MM. The Baltimore organization appealed that decision, and the matter has still yet to be decided by the New York State Court of Appeals.

While The Athletic notes it’s unclear how or if the sale of the Nationals would affect the MASN dispute, Talk Nats tweeted in August that Leonsis’ group would be interested in reaching a settlement with the Orioles to buy out of the MASN deal. If that did come to pass, the Nationals would presumably then be broadcast on the NBC Sports Washington platform. That’d obviously be a complicated process that requires negotiations with the Orioles, but it does seem to offer a glimmer of hope for a resolution to the saga.

The Lerner family first bought the Nationals in 2006, paying $450MM. The specific prices under consideration in their sale aren’t clear, but Daniel Kaplan of the Athletic wrote last month they were seeking $2.5 billion.

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Baltimore Orioles Newsstand Washington Nationals Mark Lerner Ted Leonsis

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Eduardo Nunez Announces Retirement

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2022 at 4:08pm CDT

Former major league infielder Eduardo Nunez announced his retirement from professional baseball today in a post to his Instagram. “Today, it is with mixed emotions that I officially announce my retirement from professional baseball,” Nunez wrote. “I had the opportunity of a lifetime to play the game I love for more than a decade while competing for five amazing MLB teams.”

Nunez, 35, played for the Yankees, Twins, Giants, Red Sox, and Mets during a career that spanned 11 seasons in the majors. His last season in the majors was 2020, when he appeared in two games for the Mets. He played in the Chinese Professional Baseball League in 2021 and did not play professionally during the 2022 season.

He made his major league debut with the Yankees in 2010, the first of four seasons spent in a utility role in their uniform. During his time in the Bronx, Nunez slashed .267/.313/.379 (86 wRC+) in 270 games while logging time at second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners. Nunez’s career as a member of the Yankees ended when he was traded to Minnesota in 2014, where his career would begin to improve, with the highlight of his Twins tenure being the 2016 season that earned Nunez not only his only career All-Star appearance, but a deadline trade to the Giants. That season, he slashed .288/.325/.432 (101 wRC+) while splitting time between second base, third base, and shortstop.

Nunez would remain with the Giants until the following year’s trade deadline, when he would be swapped to the Red Sox. He re-signed with Boston during the 2017-18 offseason, and split time between second and third base while batting .265/.289/.388 (78 wRC+) in 127 games as the Red Sox won 108 games en route to a World Series championship. Nunez remained with Boston in 2019, appearing in 60 games before being designated for assignment in July.

Altogether, Nunez spent parts of 17 seasons playing professional baseball and batted .276/.310/.404 (90 wRC+) in his 3008 major league plate appearances, collecting 776 hits, 142 stolen bases, and 1136 total bases along the way. MLBTR wishes Nunez the best in his future pursuits now that his playing career has officially come to a close.

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Offseason Chat Transcript: St. Louis Cardinals

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2022 at 3:37pm CDT

Click here to view the transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Anthony Franco about the Cardinals’ offseason outlook.

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MLBTR Chats St. Louis Cardinals

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Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

By Mark Polishuk | October 20, 2022 at 3:10pm CDT

It’s never a good sign when one offseason’s big need is still the biggest need next winter, as the Marlins continue to look for quality hitters.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Sandy Alcantara, SP: $51MM through 2026 (includes $2MM buyout of $21MM club option for 2027)
  • Avisail Garcia, OF: $41MM through 2025 (includes $5MM buyout of $12MM club option for 2026)
  • Jorge Soler, OF: $24MM through 2024 (Soler has opt-out clauses after both the 2022 and 2023 seasons)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $4.5MM through 2023
  • Richard Bleier, RP: $3.75MM through 2023 (includes $250K buyout of $3.75MM club option for 2024)

Total 2023 commitments: $41.8MM
Total future commitments: $125.95MM

Option Decisions

  • Joey Wendle, IF: $6.3MM mutual option for 2023, $75K buyout if Marlins decline (Wendle is still under arbitration control)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2023 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Joey Wendle (5.088): $5.4MM (if mutual option is declined)
  • Garrett Cooper (5.053): $4.1MM
  • Dylan Floro (5.053): $4.2MM
  • Brian Anderson (5.031): $5.2MM
  • Jacob Stallings (4.149): $3.3MM
  • Pablo Lopez (4.093): $5.6MM
  • Tanner Scott (4.059): $2.7MM
  • Elieser Hernandez (4.051): $1.8MM
  • Jon Berti (3.168): $2.4MM
  • Cole Sulser (3.028): $1MM
  • Jeff Brigham (3.010): $800K
  • Jesus Luzardo (2.165): $2MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Anderson, Brigham

Other Financial Commitments

  • $30MM owed to the Yankees as part of the Giancarlo Stanton trade (money to be paid out in 2026-28)

Free Agents

  • None

Derek Jeter’s surprise departure as the Marlins’ CEO back in February ended up being a bad omen for the team’s season, as Miami stayed on the outskirts of the playoff race until July, before struggling to a 69-93 record and fourth place in the NL East.  Along the way, some other front office personnel (largely Jeter’s hires) also left the organization, and news broke at the end of the season that Don Mattingly wouldn’t be returning for an eighth year as the manager.

The search for Mattingly’s replacement is ongoing, with such names as Astros bench coach Joe Espada and Royals bench coach Pedro Grifol cited as two of an unknown number of candidates.  It remains to be seen what direction Miami’s search might take, though Espada or Grifol would both present a fresh voice from outside the organization, which might be just what the Marlins need to help get things on track.

In fairness to Mattingly, however, he was far from the root problem with the club, as the Marlins again had one of the league’s worst offenses.  Miami’s team batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, home runs, runs scored, and RBI total were all lower in 2022 than in 2021, despite how the Fish tried to upgrade their lineup last winter.  Unfortunately for the Marlins, Avisail Garcia, Jorge Soler, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings all hit poorly, with Soler (98 wRC+) the only one even close to league-average offensive production.  With Garcia and Stallings delivering negative-fWAR production, the quartet combined for only 0.6 fWAR, with that number further impacted by Garcia, Soler, and Wendle all missing significant time on the injured list.

Injuries were a problem in general for Miami, most notably the stress fracture in Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s back that ended up halting the second baseman’s season on June 28.  Chisholm was playing some excellent baseball at the time of his injury, hitting .254/.325/.535 with 14 homers over 241 plate appearances.  Though he already has a pretty lengthy injury history during his short MLB career, Chisholm will return as the centerpiece of Miami’s lineup in 2023, and is one of only a few Marlins seemingly assured of a spot on the team.

Beyond Chisholm at second base, Garcia looks to be the regular right fielder and Soler will get time as both a left fielder and DH.  The Marlins can only hope that Garcia and Soler can bounce back next year, as neither player is a realistic trade candidate (barring a swap for another team’s undesirable contract) in the wake of their poor seasons.  Soler can opt out of the remaining two years of his contract, but there’s no chance he’ll walk away from his remaining $24MM owed this offseason, as he wouldn’t be able to match that salary on the open market.

It also doesn’t look like Stallings is going anywhere, as it seems probable that Stallings and Nick Fortes will be the primary catching duo.  Fortes’ .230/.304/.392 slash line over 240 PA wasn’t extraordinary, but it was still markedly better than Stallings’ production, so the Marlins might end up deploying more of a timeshare behind the plate than a strict starter/backup situation.

2022 was such a rough year both offensively and defensively for Stallings that it’s easy to forget he was a sought-after trade chip at this time last year, and the Marlins had to surrender a notable package of three young players to acquire him from the Pirates in November.  It would take even more of a trade haul to land, say, Sean Murphy from the A’s or any of Alejandro Kirk/Gabriel Moreno/Danny Jansen away from the Blue Jays this winter, so another splashy deal might not be in the works if the Marlins do want a catching upgrade.  Free agent Willson Contreras would seem to be out of their price range, but someone like Gary Sanchez might be feasible, or perhaps an Omar Narvaez or Mike Zunino if the Marlins wanted to take a shot on catchers who have been good hitters in the past but are coming off poor seasons.

Catcher is one of many positions that are in a state of flux for the Marlins.  While the team has pretty much the entire 2022 position-player core under team control for 2023, most of those options simply weren’t good enough last year, and the Marlins may just be ready to move on from some players who have been in the organization for some time.

It’s possible that general manager Kim Ng might approach this group as a collective backup plan.  Any of Stallings, Fortes, Garrett Cooper, Miguel Rojas, Brian Anderson, or even youngsters Bryan De La Cruz or Jesus Sanchez could feasibly be in Miami’s Opening Day lineup….or on another team’s roster via trade, should Ng find a quality upgrade at any of these positions who brings better speed or contact.  While the Marlins aren’t going to unload this entire group, it also doesn’t seem likely that all of the aforementioned seven players will still be in Miami next season.

De La Cruz and Sanchez are the most likely to return, given their youth, years of team control, and the lack of certainty over Soler and Garcia in the outfield.  Center field also isn’t an easy position to fill, so since Sanchez can at least play passable defense at the position, the Marlins may be inclined to give him another shot at establishing himself at the MLB level.

Having both Wendle and versatile speedster Jon Berti gives Ng some flexibility in how she addresses the position player side of the roster, even if Wendle and Berti might both be best suited for super-sub roles than as true everyday players.  The Marlins will decline their end of Wendle’s mutual option, yet the utilityman would still be arbitration-eligible through 2023 and will likely again be part of the infield picture despite his struggles last year.  If the Fish did want to move on from Wendle, youngsters Jordan Groshans or Charles Leblanc could take on bigger roles in the infield mix.

Cooper, Rojas, and Anderson are all free agents after the 2023 season, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Fish non-tender Anderson this winter after two consecutive injury-plagued and non-productive seasons.  This could make third base a particular target area, if the Marlins wanted to go beyond a Wendle/Berti/Groshans fallback plan.

Rojas has been a team leader for years, and was still an excellent defensive shortstop despite playing with a significant wrist injury for over two months.  It should be noted the Marlins were at least open to the idea of dealing the shortstop last summer since Rojas’ name was floated in trade talks with the Yankees, but since shortstop is a harder position to fill, Miami might just count on Rojas regaining some hitting stroke once healthy.

Cooper has also been a speculated name in trade rumors in the past, yet his checkered injury history likely played some role in why he has remained with the Marlins.  It could be that the first baseman again stays put just because the Marlins need hitting, and Cooper has been a pretty consistent bat when healthy — he was even an All-Star in 2022 before being waylaid by injuries and a lengthy slump in the second half.  With Lewin Diaz reportedly no longer seen as a viable regular, retaining Cooper might be the easiest way for Miami to address first base.

Gauging the size of the Marlins’ overhaul will also depend on how much Ng has to spend this winter.  Owner Bruce Sherman bumped the payroll from around $57MM in 2021 to just under $80MM in Opening Day payroll in 2022, though this increase was rather modest (perhaps too modest for Jeter’s liking, according to some reports) and still left the Marlins among the sport’s lowest spenders.  Sherman is apparently willing to boost the payroll a little more this winter, though the size of that increase isn’t known, and it’s probably safe to assume that Miami isn’t suddenly going to be making nine-figure contract bids.

If the Garcia/Soler signings have made ownership wary of free-agent spending, that again leaves the trade market as perhaps Miami’s best route for significant roster help.  Since the Fish still possess one of baseball’s more enviable collections of young pitchers, Miami is reportedly open to discussing anyone besides Sandy Alcantara or top prospect Eury Perez.

It is safe to assume that the Marlins would prefer to deal more unproven arms than, say, frequent trade target Pablo Lopez, even if Lopez would bring back a nice return.  Selling high on Edward Cabrera or Jesus Luzardo might be more feasible, as both pitchers have a lot of talent but have also already had injury problems early in their careers.  Moving either Trevor Rogers or Elieser Hernandez would be more of a sell-low, but Rogers in particular still has trade value despite a rough 2022 performance.

There is a bottom to this pitching depth, as the Marlins aren’t going to start offloading too many arms that are ticketed for spots in their own rotation.  The “you can never have too much pitching” mantra also applies, considering that Miami’s depth took some injury hits with Max Meyer’s Tommy John surgery and Sixto Sanchez’s ongoing shoulder troubles.  In general, however, Ng has plenty of options to weigh in considering pitching trades, as Miami’s variety of arms could bring back anything from All-Star caliber bats to more building blocks for the future.

It also helps to have an ace like Alcantara on hand as the rotation’s stabilizing force.  The right-hander was the Marlins’ other big expenditure of the 2021-22 offseason, as Miami inked Alcantara to a five-year, $56MM extension that covered his three arbitration-eligible years and at least his first two free agent years.  Alcantara responded to his security by delivering the best season of his career, posting a 2.28 ERA over a league-high 228 2/3 innings.

Extensions probably don’t figure to be a big part of Miami’s offseason business until the later stages of Spring Training, though it is possible the Fish could try to lock up Lopez if he isn’t dealt.  Extending Chisholm is another possibility, yet the Marlins might prefer to see the second baseman get at least one healthy year on his record before making a long-term commitment.

While the Marlins got good results from their rotation last year, the bullpen was much more inconsistent.  Major additions might not be in the offing, however, due to cost, the number of young starters in the system who could be eased into the majors via bullpen work, and because the Marlins could just count on some injured arms having healthier years.  Dylan Floro is the incumbent favorite for the closer’s job, as Tanner Scott held the job for much of 2022 but had too much trouble avoiding walks.

With the Braves, Mets, and Phillies all still looking like contenders, it will be tough for Miami to make a lot of headway in the NL East.  The Marlins’ pitching corps will always give them a chance, and getting even closer to league-average hitting might help the club make some noise next year.  With this in mind, expect the Marlins to be one of the league leaders in trade speculation this winter, linked to any number of notable bats on the rumor mill.  More clarity on the payroll situation would also help, as the ability to add even a Soler-sized contract would help expand the options available to the front office.

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2022-23 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins

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Jharel Cotton Elects Free Agency

By Darragh McDonald | October 20, 2022 at 2:50pm CDT

Giants right-hander Jharel Cotton recently cleared waivers and elected free agency, per Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area.

Cotton, 31 in January, spent most of the season bouncing on and off the Twins’ roster, frequently going unclaimed on waivers and sticking with Minnesota. However, the Giants swooped in for an interception in September, claiming Cotton for the final few weeks of the season. Between the two clubs, he tossed 43 innings this year with a 3.56 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 29.4% ground ball rate.

The Giants, like many clubs at this time of year, are facing a roster crunch. They have placed numerous players on the 60-day injured list throughout the season, which those players not occupying a roster spot while on the shelf. However, there’s no IL between the World Series and Spring Training, meaning they will soon have many players needing to retake their spots and leading to some cuts.

Cotton was eligible for arbitration and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to get a raise to $1.1MM. The Giants evidently weren’t planning on tendering him a contract and placed him on waivers instead. Any player with three years of service time or a previous career outright has the right to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Cotton qualifies on both counts and will now return to the open market.

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San Francisco Giants Transactions Jharel Cotton

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Danny Coulombe Outrighted By Twins, Elects Free Agency

By Darragh McDonald | October 20, 2022 at 2:20pm CDT

The Twins have outrighted left-hander Danny Coulombe, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Coulombe cleared waivers and elected free agency.

Coulombe, 33 next week, has been on and off the Twins’ roster over the past few years. He was signed to a minor league deal prior to the 2020 season, got his contract selected but was designated for assignment shortly thereafter. He signed another minors deal for 2021 and spent a few months with the team before losing his roster spot at year’s end again.

A third straight minor league deal followed prior to 2022, with Coulombe getting selected to the big league team once again. He tossed 12 1/3 innings with a 1.46 ERA despite a 17% walk rate but made two trips to the IL due to a hip impingement that eventually required surgery. For his career, he’s thrown 192 2/3 innings with a 3.92 ERA, 22.1% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 52.5% ground ball rate.

The Twins suffered a large number of injuries this season, leading to them placing many players on the 60-day injured list. However, since there’s no IL between the World Series and Spring Training, those players will soon have to take up roster spots once again. In anticipation of that, the club has been placing some players on waivers in recent weeks, having lost Caleb Hamilton to the Red Sox, Jake Cave to the Orioles and Jermaine Palacios to the Tigers, in addition to outrighting Jhon Romero, Devin Smeltzer and now Coulombe. Players who have more than three years of MLB service time or who have been previously outrighted in their career are eligible to reject an outright assignment and elect free agency. Coulombe qualified on both counts.

Given that Coulombe and the Twins have continued to re-engage each other in recent years, it’s entirely possible that they do so again. However, Coulombe will be free to pursue other opportunities for the time being, while the club will likely wait and see how the lefty recovers from his surgery.

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Offseason Chat Transcript: Detroit Tigers

By Darragh McDonald | October 20, 2022 at 9:56am CDT

MLBTR will be holding live chats specific to each of the 30 teams. Darragh McDonald hosted a chat about the Offseason Outlook for the Detroit Tigers. Use this link to read the transcript.

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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2022 at 8:58am CDT

The Cardinals are fresh off a fourth straight postseason appearance, but they’ve failed to advance to a Division Series in each of the last three years. They’ll presumably try to run things back with as much continuity as possible given their regular season success, but they’ll do so without two franchise icons who had long ago announced that 2022 would be their final seasons.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Nolan Arenado, 3B: $144MM through 2027 (Arenado can opt out this offseason; Rockies owe Cardinals $16MM in 2023 regardless of Arenado’s decision, Colorado would owe an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if he declines to opt out)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $52MM through 2024
  • Steven Matz, LHP: $35.5MM through 2025
  • Miles Mikolas, RHP: $17MM through 2023
  • Paul DeJong, SS: $11MM through 2023 (including buyout of 2024 club option)
  • Giovanny Gallegos, RHP: $11MM through 2024 (including buyout of 2025 club option)
  • Drew VerHagen, RHP: $3MM

Total 2023 commitments: $84.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $54.5MM if Arenado opts out (factoring in Rockies’ payments)
Total future commitments: $242.5MM if Arenado doesn’t opt out, $113.5MM if Arenado opts out

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parenthesis, projections via Matt Swartz)

  • Jordan Montgomery (5.153): $10.1MM
  • Jack Flaherty (5.006): $5.1MM
  • Tyler O’Neill (4.059): $5.1MM
  • Tommy Edman (3.114): $4.3MM
  • Chris Stratton (5.100): $3.5MM
  • Alex Reyes (5.056): $2.85MM
  • Dakota Hudson (4.062): $2.7MM
  • Ryan Helsley (3.105): $2.4MM
  • Jordan Hicks (5.000): $1.6MM
  • Génesis Cabrera (3.011): $1.2MM
  • Andrew Knizner (3.021): $1MM

Total arbitration projections: $39.85MM

Non-tender candidates: Stratton, Reyes, Hudson, Cabrera

Free Agents

  • José Quintana, Adam Wainwright, Yadier Molina (retired), Albert Pujols (retired), Corey Dickerson, T.J. McFarland, Aaron Brooks

The Cardinals outlasted the Brewers with an excellent second half, claiming an NL Central title after two straight Wild Card berths. St. Louis’ 93 wins weren’t enough to secure a first-round bye in the new playoff format, however, leaving the Cards to match up against the Phillies in a three-game Wild Card set. Philadelphia came back from a ninth-inning deficit in Game One and went on to sweep the series, starting the St. Louis offseason earlier than the organization had hoped.

The Cardinals have had a string of early playoff exits in recent years, but they’ve continuously been one of the game’s most successful regular season teams. They’ve earned four straight playoff berths and haven’t had a below-average record in 15 years. It’s a remarkable run of consistency, anchored by one of the longer-tenured front office regimes and a few iconic presences on the roster. The front office tandem of president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch will be back, with Girsch inking a multi-year extension last week and Mozeliak already under contract. Yet the Cards will have to turn the page from Yadier Molina and, after a surprising resurgent return season in St. Louis that saw him eclipse 700 career home runs, Albert Pujols.

Molina and Pujols announced before the 2022 season even began that it’d be their final runs. Adam Wainwright has made no such declaration, playing things much closer to the vest. The 41-year-old has been a fixture on the St. Louis roster for nearly two decades. He’s a free agent again, and while it’s impossible to envision him playing anywhere else, Wainwright has yet to declare whether he plans to continue pitching. If he wants to return, there’s no question the Cards would carve out a rotation spot yet again. He’s coming off another successful year, posting a 3.71 ERA over 191 2/3 innings. He and the Redbirds agreed to a $17.5MM extension last offseason, and it’s easy to envision another one-year deal in that range.

Wainwright told reporters after the season we’d “know pretty soon” whether he was returning, teasing that he was already aware of his decision (link via Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch). That doesn’t seem likely to drag too deep into the offseason, while the Cardinals biggest question has to be made within five days of the conclusion of the World Series. Nolan Arenado is coming off arguably the best season of his career, one which should see him compete with corner infield mate Paul Goldschmidt for MVP support. He’ll have the opportunity to opt out of the final five years and $144MM on his contract at the start of the offseason.

Arenado forewent an opt-out chance last year, telling Goold it “was always the plan” to stay in St. Louis long-term at that time. The seven-time All-Star was coming off a relative down season in 2021, however, and it wasn’t clear he’d have topped the six years and $179MM remaining on his deal at that point. After this year’s incredible showing on both sides of the ball, he’d certainly beat $144MM as a free agent if his main priority were to maximize his earnings. Freddie Freeman received a six-year, $162MM deal (albeit with deferrals that knocked down its net present value) heading into his age-32 season coming off a less impressive platform year. Arenado would figure to top that mark were he a free agent.

The nine-time Gold Glover hasn’t tipped his hand this time around, but he’s consistently maintained his love for both St. Louis and the Cardinals organization. After the Cards were eliminated, he reiterated to reporters he’s “really loved it here” and added “hopefully we can figure (the contract) out” (via Brenden Schaeffer of KMOV).

It’s certainly possible Arenado decides not to pursue his greatest earning potential and sticks with an organization with which he’s clearly happy. That could take the form of just opting in to his existing deal or maybe a preemptive contract restructure. Arenado is slated to make just $15MM in the final season of his current deal. If St. Louis agreed to make his 2027 salary more commensurate with the $32.25MM average annual value of the deal’s next four years, perhaps that’d strike a balance between rewarding his excellent season while preserving continuity.

The Cardinals have plenty of breathing room financially to rework Arenado’s deal if necessary. According to the Associated Press, the Rockies will owe the Cards $16MM next season regardless of Arenado’s opt-out decision, as agreed upon in the 2021 trade that sent him to St. Louis. Colorado would send an additional $5MM annually through 2025 if Arenado declines to opt out. With the Rox on the hook for such a notable portion of next year’s salary, the Cardinals would only have roughly $54.5MM in guaranteed commitments (subtracting the money they’d receive from Colorado) if Arenado opts out.

They’re likely to allocate another $35-40MM to a loaded arbitration class, but that’d still leave them with less than $100MM in player expenditures. St. Louis has opened the past two seasons with a player payroll north of $150MM, so they could absolutely accommodate a hefty Arenado deal next year. Only Goldschmidt ($26MM), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) and Giovanny Gallegos ($5.5MM) are on guaranteed deals by 2024, so there shouldn’t be much long-term concern about keeping Arenado around.

That’s also true because the Cards will retain much of their remaining roster. Goldschmidt will be back at first base, while Tommy Edman is arbitration-eligible for three more seasons to take one middle infield spot. Edman is a decent hitter and one of the game’s best defenders at either second base or shortstop. He’ll certainly be in the lineup at one of those spots for manager Oliver Marmol, but there’s at least a chance for the Cardinals to look outside the organization for middle infield help.

St. Louis sat out a loaded free agent shortstop class last offseason, counting on Paul DeJong to return to form offensively. He did not, hitting a career-worst .157/.245/.286 over 237 MLB plate appearances. The Cardinals optioned him to Triple-A midway through the year, and while he performed fairly well there, he didn’t carry that over after returning to the majors for the season’s final two months. With $11MM remaining on his contract, taking the form of a $9MM 2023 salary and a $2MM buyout on a ’24 club option, DeJong will be tough to move. Maybe the Cardinals consider a swap of undesirable deals for a position of greater need — speculatively speaking, a deal with the Angels involving catcher Max Stassi could match up financially while making sense with each team’s roster outlook — but it’s also possible St. Louis just releases DeJong and eats the money. At the very least, his streak of five straight Opening Day starts at shortstop will come to an end.

There’s again a loaded shortstop class in free agency, with Carlos Correa and Xander Bogaerts locks to opt out of their current deals and join Dansby Swanson and Trea Turner. The Cardinals long-term financial flexibility means they could plausibly kick the tires on that group. However, signing one of the top shortstops would be out of character for an organization that has only once gone beyond $100MM on a free agent contract (seven years and $120MM to retain Matt Holliday in 2009-10) and has never signed a player for more than $130MM. Correa and Turner would shatter the franchise record outlay, and Bogaerts and Swanson shouldn’t have much trouble topping that figure themselves.

If Arenado opts out and signs elsewhere, a run at the top free agent shortstops would appear more realistic. If he stays, then the Cards could look to trade possibilities like the Guardians’ Amed Rosario or stick with Edman at shortstop while giving second base to a combination of Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan. Gorman is a former first-rounder and top prospect; he has huge power but notable strikeout issues and isn’t an ideal fit in the middle infield. Donovan was a less heralded prospect but finished seventh in the majors (minimum 400 plate appearances) with a .394 on-base percentage as a rookie. He worked in a bat-first utility role and may not be a great defender at the keystone either, but he looks like the kind of excellent contact hitter the Cardinals have excelled at developing over the years.

There’s not a huge need for an overhaul in the outfield. Corey Dickerson will probably walk in free agency, leaving the Cards with a group of Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar, Juan Yepez and breakout prospect Alec Burleson. Trading Harrison Bader at this past deadline subtracted an elite defender from the mix, but Carlson rated well in his half-season of center field work. The Cardinals seem committed to him as a franchise center fielder, and the others give them a balanced group of corner outfield/designated hitter options from which to choose. O’Neill had a down year after a standout 2021 campaign, but Nootbaar took a step forward and looks like a potential everyday player. Perhaps the Cardinals look for a glove-first backup to upgrade over Ben DeLuzio in a bench role, but this doesn’t look like a spot for a big investment.

That’d be particularly true if Arenado sticks around, since he’d lock down third base for the long haul. 2020 first-rounder Jordan Walker has blossomed into one of the sport’s top prospects as a potential impact power bat and is fresh off a .306/.388/.510 showing as a 20-year-old in Double-A. He’s played primarily third base in the minors but has gotten increasing work in the corner outfield. If Arenado and Goldschmidt are under contract for the next two-plus seasons, the corner outfield/DH is the easiest path to at-bats for Walker once he’s ready, which could be as soon as the middle of next season.

The position the Cardinals will need to address from outside the organization is catcher. For the first time in almost two decades, it won’t be Molina’s job. Andrew Knizner hasn’t shown himself capable of being Molina’s heir apparent as once hoped. He could stick around in a backup role, but he shouldn’t be expected to assume the #1 job. Prospect Iván Herrera hit .268/.374/.396 in 65 Triple-A games at age 22, earning a very brief big league look in the process. He’s a potential long-term option, but it’d probably be too risky to count on him as the top catcher for a win-now 2023 team.

Free agency doesn’t offer many obvious solutions. Longtime division rival Willson Contreras is the standout at the position. The Cardinals are a viable suitor for Contreras, but he’s more of a bat-first player and would be an atypical fit for an organization that has placed such a strong premium on defense. Signing Contreras, who’ll receive a qualifying offer, would also require forfeiting an amateur draft choice. Other than Contreras, Christian Vázquez may be the only free agent backstop who’s a lock to land a regular job, while Austin Hedges and Mike Zunino could be glove-first stopgaps to Herrera. The A’s Sean Murphy, who’s projected for a $3.5MM arbitration salary and controllable through 2025, would be the prize of the trade market at the position. If the Cardinals were inclined to make a splash, it’s easy to envision the A’s having interest in big league ready players like Gorman and Burleson.

St. Louis could poke around the trade market for controllable starting pitching as well, although they won’t enter the offseason with as pressing a rotation need as most teams. Miles Mikolas is under contract for an additional season, while deadline pickup Jordan Montgomery will be back for his final year of arbitration. St. Louis signed Matz to a four-year free agent deal last winter. Injuries contributed to a rough first season, but he’ll get a chance to bounce back. Wainwright would obviously have a rotation spot if he wants to return.

There’s a bit of uncertainty at the back end, but the Cardinals have options. Jack Flaherty has shown top-of-the-rotation potential in the past and is eligible for arbitration a final time. He’s lost most of the past year and a half to shoulder issues, but he’ll certainly be tendered a contract with a relatively modest projected $5.1MM arbitration salary. It’s possible Mozeliak and his staff gauge the trade market on Flaherty, but he wouldn’t garner a huge return and seems likelier to be on the Cards roster come Opening Day. If healthy, he figures to have a rotation spot.

There’s enough uncertainty with Flaherty and Matz the Cardinals could look for a depth option at the back end. Midseason trade pickup José Quintana pitched well enough down the stretch St. Louis tabbed him as the Game One starter for their Wild Card series. He’ll be a free agent and may have pitched himself beyond the Cards’ comfort range financially, but there’s a deep free agent market of innings-eating starting pitchers this winter. Players like Michael Wacha, Drew Smyly or Kyle Gibson figure to land affordable one or two-year contracts.

Adding another starter, particularly if Wainwright does opt for retirement, would have the added benefit of allowing St. Louis to pencil Andre Pallante into the bullpen. He worked as a swingman as a rookie and was a valuable ground-ball specialist. He’s an internal rotation option but could fit better in multi-inning relief. That’s also true of Dakota Hudson, who struggled enough as a starter he was optioned back to Triple-A late in the year. With a projected $2.7MM arb salary, Hudson could also be traded for a minimal return or just cut loose altogether.

At the back end of the bullpen, flamethrowing Ryan Helsley has broken out as one the game’s best relievers. The ever-consistent Gallegos joins him as a high-leverage option, and he was rewarded with a late-season two-year extension. Jordan Hicks and Alex Reyes have been inconsistent, largely due to injuries, but they’ve shown the potential to be high-leverage relievers at their best. Reyes missed all of 2022 and could be non-tendered, but the Cards could roll the dice on a $2.85MM salary depending on his recovery from May shoulder surgery. Chris Stratton came over from the Pirates in the Quintana deal and could factor in as well, although a projected $3.5MM salary might be rich for a player who didn’t make the team’s playoff roster.

There’s a bit of uncertainty from the left side, but the Cards again have options. Packy Naughton and former first-rounder Zack Thompson were serviceable. Génesis Cabrera had a brutal 2022 season but is only projected for a $1.2MM arbitration salary. He still throws in the mid-upper 90s and has taken high-leverage innings in the past. There’s room for another left-handed arm, particularly if the Cards move on from Cabrera, but adding there feels like more of a luxury than a necessity.

That’s true for much of the roster, which boasts a few star players and the Cardinals’ typical stockpile of depth. All eyes in St. Louis early in the offseason will be on Arenado. If he opts out and surprisingly signs with a different team, the Cards could find themselves in position for major turnover. If he stays in St. Louis, as most anticipate he will, the offseason figures to be primarily about preserving continuity — although they’ll have to make a change at catcher for the first time in 20 years regardless.

In conjunction with this post, Anthony Franco held a Cardinals-centric chat on 10-20-22. Click here to view the transcript of that discussion.

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Josh Reddick Planning To Retire After Stint In Australia

By Jacob Smith | October 19, 2022 at 11:23pm CDT

Former Gold Glove outfielder Josh Reddick has decided to retire from Major League Baseball. The veteran told Mark Berman of Fox 26 and other reporters that he will stop pursuing a MLB career (Twitter link). Reddick announced in May he’d play for the Perth Heat during the 2022-23 Australian Baseball League season that starts in November. After that wraps up, he says, “that’ll be it for me.”

Originally picked by Boston in the 17th round of the 2006 draft, Reddick made his debut for the Red Sox in the July of 2009. He bounced between Boston and Triple-A Pawtucket before being traded to the Oakland A’s during the 2011-12 offseason. Reddick got his first opportunity to start on a MLB roster in 2012 and ran with it, posting a career high 32 home runs and 85 RBIs, earning a Gold Glove, and picking up a few MVP votes to go with it.

Reddick played three more full seasons for Oakland during which he accumulated a .747 OPS over 372 games. At the 2016 trade deadline, he and Rich Hill were flipped to the Dodgers in exchange for a package that included Frankie Montas, where he helped Los Angeles advance to the NLCS. The next offseason, Reddick reached free agency and signed a four-year deal with the Astros worth $52MM, where he made an immediate impact. He slashed .314/.363/.484 in his first season with the Astros, playing a huge role in Houston’s 2017 championship run.

Reddick spent three more full seasons with the Astros before joining the Diamondbacks on a one-year deal for 2021. After Arizona released him in early August, he spent three weeks at the Mets’ Triple-A Syracuse before being released.

In February of 2021, Reddick took his career to Mexico and spent a summer with the Acereros de Monclova, with whom he hit .293 in 28 games. Today, Reddick was on hand for Game 1 of the ALCS in Houston, where he told reporters he was “frustrated, upset” because he feels like he has “plenty of talent to be out there playing (in the majors).” He continued on to say that his time with the Acereros was his last attempt at returning to MLB. Reddick will be one of the biggest names to ever play in the ABL, where he’ll join a Heat team that includes two former MLB pitchers in Zac Reininger and Warwick Saupold.

In over 4879 Major League plate appearances across parts of thirteen big league seasons, Reddick slashed .262/.321/.426. He accumulated 24.7 bWAR, hit 146 home runs, drove in 575 and scored 597 times. He banked north of $66MM in career earnings, according to Baseball Reference. MLBTR congratulates Reddick on his lengthy, successful career and wishes him all the best in his retirement.

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Dipoto: Mariners To Pursue Shortstops Willing To Play Second Base

By Jacob Smith | October 19, 2022 at 10:15pm CDT

There is plenty of cause for optimism in Seattle. The Mariners finished with a 90-72 record, their best since 2003. They delivered one of the best comeback wins in postseason history on their way to knocking off the Blue Jays in the wild card series. Down the stretch, the club locked up budding presumptive AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez through 2034 and extended two-time All Star starting pitcher Luis Castillo through 2028.

Now, on the heels of a thrilling season, Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto has indicated that he’s open to making big moves in order to improve what is already a playoff-caliber team.

At the M’s end-of-season media session on Wednesday, Dipoto said that his “great preference” this offseason “would be to land a shortstop that would like to play second base” (relayed by Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times). Dipoto is likely referring to any of the four “big name shortstops” who project to be free agents this offseason: Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson, and Trea Turner. Each of these four would instantly improve Seattle’s offense, which ranked in the bottom half of all of baseball. All four of the big name shortstops will require multi-year pacts with significant annuals.

The Mariners project to have the payroll capacity to splurge on a top-of-the-market shortstop, should they choose to. In 2022, Seattle ranked 22nd in MLB with an Opening Day player payroll just shy of $104MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. 2022’s figure is significantly lower than some of the Mariners’ recent seasons, during which Seattle was generally less competitive. From 2016 to 2019, the Mariners averaged total payrolls of roughly $150MM, ranking as high as 11th league-wide.

The M’s currently have around $91MM worth of payroll commitments for 2023, per Roster Resource. Though that number will increase as a result of arbitration, it seems likely that Seattle would have the fiscal capacity to sign one of the big four shortstops, even if they attempt to bring back Mitch Haniger, who will be a free agent this offseason as well.

The major caveat in Seattle’s pursuit of a big-name free agent shortstop will be whether or not any of them will accept a move to second base. Dipoto reaffirmed his commitment to J.P. Crawford as the Mariners’ shortstop. He told the media that Crawford, age 27, will “line up for us Opening Day at shortstop and the goal is to find someone to put around him.” Dipoto continued on to state plainly that the Mariners signed Crawford to be a shortstop and that “that’s what we intend to do.”

One could argue the cleanest fit of the four aforementioned shortstops would be Turner, who is the only one of the four to appear in Major League games as a second baseman. Turner was a full-time second baseman as recently as the second half of 2021, when he transitioned to the right side of the diamond so that the Dodgers could accommodate both Corey Seager and Turner after Los Angeles acquired him from the Nationals.

None of Correa, Bogaerts or Swanson has played on the right side of the infield in their careers, although they all have extended experience at the infield’s most demanding position. Trevor Story had also never previously played the keystone, but he agreed to move over in deference to Bogaerts upon signing with the Red Sox last offseason. Whether any of the big four shortstops this time would do so while letting Crawford keep shortstop isn’t presently known, but Dipoto and his staff seem likely to inquire with everyone in that group.

Haniger, meanwhile, will hit free agency after spending the past five seasons in Seattle. M’s general manger Justin Hollander was effusive in his praise for the 31-year-old outfielder and said the organization will remain in contact with his representatives at Apex Baseball (via Divish). At the same time, he noted that Haniger “wants to gauge what else is out there” on the open market during his first trip to free agency.

It’s not the best platform season for Haniger, who missed a couple months with a high ankle sprain. He ultimately appeared in 57 games and hit .246/.308/.429 with 11 homers over 247 plate appearances. That’s above-average offense but a step back from his 39-homer, .253/.318/.485 campaign in 2021. Haniger is eligible for a $19.65MM qualifying offer, but the relative down platform year and the M’s stockpile of controllable outfielders make it seem likely they’ll allow him to hit free agency unencumbered by a QO.

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