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Amateur Draft Signings: 6/18/20

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We’ll track today’s slate of signings from the 2020 amateur draft here…

  • The Braves agreed to a full-slot deal with fourth-round pick Spencer Strider, tweets MLB.com’s Jim Callis. The Clemson righty, who returned from Tommy John surgery early this spring, will receive $451,800. The 6’0″, 195-pound Strider posted a 19-to-3 K/BB ratio in 12 innings before the NCAA season was halted, and Callis notes that he hit 95 mph multiple times in his first few showings. Strider didn’t rank inside MLB.com’s Top 200 or Baseball America’s Top 500, although that’s perhaps not much of a surprise given that he missed the entire 2019 season recovering from surgery. The Atlanta organization clearly liked what it saw in his brief return this spring — brief as it may have been.
  • Astros third-rounder Tyler Brown announced on Twitter that he’s officially signed with the team. Callis reports that Brown received his full $577K slot value. Listed at 6’4″ and 242 pounds, the now-former Vanderbilt right-hander notched a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio with three earned runs allowed in 10 2/3 innings this spring, which seemed to be setting the stage for a strong followup to a nice sophomore season. In 2019, Brown tossed 41 2/3 frames out of the Commodores’ bullpen and logged 14 saves with a 2.59 ERA and an impressive 58-to-8 K/BB ratio. Brown ranked 99th on Baseball America’s Top 500 list and 133rd over at MLB.com. Both outlet’s scouting reports suggest that his size and four-pitch mix could make at least give him a chance to start, despite working as a reliever for most of his collegiate career. If Houston opts to leave him in the ’pen, though, his path the the Majors would likely be quicker.

League & Union Reportedly Making Progress On Deal For 2020 Season

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10:09pm: The players would have $33MM of the $170MM advance they received from their March agreement with the owners forgiven, per Heyman. Teams, meanwhile, would be able to sell advertisements on uniforms in 2020 and ’21 in order to increase their revenues, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

6:16pm: The proposal adds the designated hitter position to the NL in 2020 and ’21, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets.

2:14pm: The postseason would expand to sixteen teams, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

With multiple reporters floating the concept, it sounds as if the expectation is for the union to press for some modest increase in the number of games beyond the sixty proposed. The MLBPA has made clear it hasn’t yet agreed to anything.

2:07pm: The proposal is indeed for sixty games with full pro rata pay, Buster Olney of ESPN.com reports on Twitter. The season would begin on July 19th.

2:00pm: The proposal is for at least sixty games, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post Gazette tweets.

1:34pm: MLB has sent the union a new formal proposal, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic (via Twitter). At the moment, the sides haven’t yet reached an agreement in principle, let alone a full and binding accord. But it certainly seems as if there’s momentum towards a common goal of getting back to work.

Per Heyman (Twitter link), several major pillars of the potential agreement are moving in place, at least conceptually: The players will receive pro-rated pay, the league will get an expanded postseason, and players will waive any potential grievance to seek additional compensation.

1:25pm: In a major potential breakthrough, in-person league and union negotiations appear to be bearing fruit. The sides are “closing in” on a deal to resume play in 2020, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

If you’ve followed even some of the long-running saga over the pandemic-interrupted season, this comes as quite welcome news. While the vitriol had ramped up in recent weeks, it seems the sides pulled back from the brink of a potentially disastrous season cancellation.

You’ll be forgiven for wondering whether all the posturing truly should’ve been necessary, particularly given that it occurred against a backdrop of much more important events. But there’s still time for MLB and the MLB Players Association to put much of the pain in the background if they can come together and stage a compelling 2020 campaign.

Just over three months have passed since Spring Training went on ice as COVID-19 swept into the United States. The sides reached agreement not long thereafter on a preliminary agreement to resume play. But they were soon arguing over whether that deal’s pay provisions — pro rata, game for game salary for players — applied even if teams were not able to collect a gate.

Undrafted Free Agent Signings: 6/17/20

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Here are the latest undrafted free agent signings from around the majors. Reminder: $20K is the maximum an unpicked player can receive this year…

  • Lamar infielder J.C. Correa will sign with the Astros, according to Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He’ll join his brother, star shortstop Carlos Correa, in the Houston organization. The Astros drafted J.C. Correa in 2018 (33rd round) and ’19 (38th), but he decided not to sign on those occasions because he wanted to earn his degree first. He slashed .315/.368/.469 and swatted 10 home runs over 304 plate appearances at Lamar.
  • Indiana University outfielder Elijah Dunham announced Wednesday that he has signed with the Yankees. Dunham, who didn’t sign after the Pirates selected him in the 40th round in 2019, cracked the top 250 pre-draft rankings of ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel this year and checked in at No. 186 on Baseball America’s list. BA writes that Dunham carries a “balanced offensive profile in a corner outfield spot.”
  • The Braves have added a local product in University of Georgia shortstop Cam Shepherd, Baseball America tweets. He was BA’s top available undrafted senior, and the outlet ranked him as the 298th-best prospect entering the draft. His stock has fallen in BA’s eyes from a year ago, though, as it had Shepherd as the 97th-rated pre-draft prospect then. The Rays took Shepherd in the 20th round in 2019, but he opted against signing.
  • The Indians have signed Fresno State left-hander Jaime Arias for $20K, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com tweets. Primarily a reliever in college, Arias pitched to a 3.56 ERA with 9.3 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 139 innings.
  • The Red Sox have added Grand Canyon University first baseman Cuba Bess, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. Bess slashed .313/.425/.517 with 12 home runs in 348 PA as a collegian.
  • The Marlins have picked up Air Force outfielder Ashton Easley, per Craig Mish of Sports Grid. Easley was a .301/.364/.512 hitter with 17 homers across 619 PA in school. The club has also signed VCU infielder Brett Norwood, who batted .303/.425/.440 with seven HRs in 299 college PA.
  • The Twins have inked UNC-Wilmington southpaw Zarion Sharpe, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune writes. Sharpe stayed in school despite going to the Cardinals in the 19th round a year ago, and he tossed 20 2/3 frames of 2.18 ERA ball with 8.7 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 this season.

Latest On Minor League Pay

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There has been plenty of talk about “billionaires versus millionaires” as Major League Baseball owners and players continue to clash over a potential 2020 season, but minor leaguers aren’t so lucky. They make a pittance in comparison, which is why it’s so important that many teams have committed to paying those players their $400-per-week stipends through the end of a minor league season that likely won’t occur this year.

The Nationals became the latest franchise to make the $400 promise Tuesday when they informed their minor leaguers they’ll earn their weekly pay through September, per Emily Waldon and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic. That continues a welcome change of heart from the reigning World Series champions, who two-plus weeks ago reversed an unpopular decision to cut minor leaguers’ weekly pay to $300 after great internal and external pressure.

In another noteworthy development, the MLBPA announced Wednesday that the MLB Players Trust has pledged $1MM to help minor leaguers over the next few months.

MLBPA executive director Tony Clark stated, in part: “Within the baseball community, minor leaguers have been particularly hard hit by the pandemic and many of them will lose a season they will never get back. We will continue to seek ways to support them.”

MLB, MLBPA Still Apart On Length Of Potential Season

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Major League Baseball and the MLBPA seem to be progressing toward an agreement on a 2020 season, but there are still obstacles to overcome. The length of a potential campaign continues to serve as a stumbling block, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who writes that “the mood soured by nightfall with the union seeking a longer schedule.”

There was more hope for peace earlier Wednesday when commissioner Rob Manfred, after a meeting with union chief Tony Clark, said the two sides had “a jointly developed framework that we agreed could form the basis of an agreement.” However, the union remains dissatisfied with the league’s proposed 60-game regular season that would take place over 70 days if it were to end Sept. 27, even though the players would earn 100 percent of their prorated salaries and, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post, a $25MM playoff pool.

The union offered an 89-game season in its most recent proposal, so there does still seem to be a lot of ground to make up. Indeed, the players at least want something closer to 70 games, Nightengale writes, though MLB doesn’t want to risk the playoffs extending beyond October because of COVID-19 fears. Notably, Dr. Anthony Fauci warned against late-October baseball on Tuesday. So, along with season length, health and safety measures are surely at the front of the minds of owners and players. Expectations are that they’ll pick up discussions again Thursday in hopes of reaching an agreement by the weekend, Nightengale reports.

Amateur Draft Signings: 6/17/20

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We’ll keep track of today’s amateur draft signing news here…

  • The Tigers have signed fifth-rounder Colt Keith for $500K, Jim Callis of MLB.com tweets. It’s an above-slot deal for Keith, the 132nd overall selection whose pick came with a recommended value of $426,600. The Mississippi high school third baseman was an Arizona State recruit, notes Callis, who adds that Keith has the ability to hit for average and power at the plate. His arm’s also so strong that he was a legit pitching prospect, per Callis. Notably, Keith was among the top 100 prospects in the pre-draft rankings of Baseball America (No. 57), MLB.com (87) and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (99).
  • The Rockies have reached an agreement with fourth-rounder Case Williams, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports. Williams’ pick (110) carried a recommended value of $527,800, but he’ll earn $450K, according to Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. A high school right-hander from Colorado, Williams ranked as FanGraphs’ 231st-best prospect entering the draft.
  • Let’s update a couple previously covered signings that didn’t come with financial information when they were reported: Astros fourth-rounder and 131st overall pick Zach Daniels agreed to a deal worth $400K, down from the slot value of $430,800, according to Callis. Meanwhile, Rays fifth-rounder Jeff Hakanson, the 155th choice, received the full slot value of $340K, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relays.

Red Sox Prospect Noah Song’s Career Put On Hold

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Red Sox right-handed pitching prospect Noah Song’s professional baseball career has been put on hold for at least a year. The Department of Defense has ordered Song, who graduated from the United States Naval Academy in 2019, to report to flight school in Pensacola, Fla., by June 26, according to Bill Wagner of the Capital Gazette. The training usually lasts 18 months, per Wagner, who adds that Song will be able to apply for early release by May 2021. However, Wagner hears that it’s atypical for such a request to be granted at the midpoint of training.

A fourth-round pick of the Red Sox last June, the hard-throwing, 23-year-old Song got off to an excellent start in his first action as a pro – albeit over a small sample of just 17 innings. Pitching at the Low-A level, Song logged a minuscule 1.06 ERA with 19 strikeouts against five walks. Song now ranks fifth among Red Sox prospects at FanGraphs, sixth at MLB.com and 10th at Baseball America. He may have been a first-rounder if not for his military committment, per FanGraphs, while MLB.com opines that he was the top senior in his draft class.

In regards to his future, Song wrote in a statement (via Wagner): “I am fortunate to have two ‘Plan As’ in life: I want to serve my country as a naval aviator and play baseball for the Red Sox. I will continue to do all I can to accomplish both, and I sincerely appreciate the support I have received from the Navy and the Red Sox in reaching those goals.”

Vice Admiral Sean Buck, Superintendent of the Naval Academy, wrote, “The Naval Academy is proud of what Ensign Song has accomplished and is hopeful he will achieve his goals as a naval officer and professional baseball player.”

Manfred: “Jointly Developed Framework” On 2020 Season Agreement

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MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has issued a statement regarding recent developments in negotiations between the league and player’s union. He says that he and union chief Tony Clark worked out “a jointly developed framework that we agreed could form the basis of an agreement.”

Manfred’s tone is certainly a bit different from that of the MLBPA, which recently issued a short statement making clear there’s no deal yet. That could represent an indication that the league wishes to seize some positive momentum while the players prefer to avoid a perception of a fait accompli. Or, perhaps, both sides will henceforth take a more optimistic tone and begin working in earnest towards a resumption of play.

It’s all still reading tea leaves at this point, though it surely sounds as if real progress has been made. If nothing else, it would be an even greater embarrassment for all involved if negotiations ultimately break down.

Manfred says he summarized his broad agreement with Clark and sent it in writing to the players’ side today. There’s no indication that the sides see eye to eye on all the key details, but it appears the players will get pro rata pay for the regular season while the owners will get an expanded, 16-team postseason.

[RELATED: Creative Playoff Expansion Can Get A Deal Done]

MLBPA Denies “Reports Of An Agreement”

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There may well be a breakthrough, but the Major League Baseball Players Association left no doubt that there isn’t yet a deal on a 2020 season. The MLBPA’s official Twitter account just issued a rather terse statement: “Reports of an agreement are false.”

It’s understandable that the union doesn’t wish to allow a perception of a done deal when it just received a proposal for Major League Baseball. No doubt there are quite a few important aspects of the negotiations still to be handled.

At the same time, it’s important to bear in mind that there really hasn’t been a clear report indicating that the sides do have a deal — even in spirit.

Creative Playoff Expansion Can Get a Deal Done

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Dr. Matt Swartz is a Labor Economist who has researched and published on MLB labor markets for over a decade at websites including The Hardball Times, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus, as well as at MLB Trade Rumors. Matt created the arbitration salary projection model for MLB Trade Rumors, and co-created the SIERA pitching statistic available at FanGraphs. He has consulted for a Major League team since 2013, in addition to working in his day job as an economist in the cable industry. This article reflects his own opinion and not that of any of his employers or clients.

Previous posts: Resolving This Player-Owner Dispute Should Be Easy; MLB Collective Bargaining and Risk Sharing.

There is a way that players can get prorated salaries for a 72-game regular season and the owners can make enough money to only pay the equivalent of 68% of prorated salaries. We know the way that owners will agree to a deal with prorated salaries for 2020; they insist they need the revenue to make up for losses incurred during the regular season. While both owners and players have proposed expanded playoffs as a way to increase that revenue, they have been unable to create enough revenue for the owners to bite. I have a solution for this problem—start the playoffs earlier, add playoff teams, make the series longer, and reap the extra television revenue. There is more than enough there to get a deal done.

The biggest roadblock to completing a deal is the combination of the union’s insistence that players be paid on a prorated basis per regular season game, and the owners’ insistence that players take less than their prorated salaries due to absence of fans in the stands. Players have shown a willingness to extend the playoffs—effectively playing some games for free. Owners have shown some willingness to put on a 50-game shortened season with typical playoff structure, but have balked apparently at the risk of the players filing a grievance for not putting on as long a season as possible.

Eugene Freedman tweeted to me earlier in this series that the reason players were so insistent on prorated salaries is to avoid precedent. If this is true, the only way around this is finding more revenue sources—something the player proposals have hinted at, but not provided adequately to appease owners.

The owners have repeatedly centered on completing the regular season by September 27 and the World Series by the end of October, fearing that a second wave of COVID-19 in the fall could preclude the playoffs.

Fans have an additional concern that my proposal would resolve—they want to make sure that the World Series Champion deserves their title. A shortened season, combined with expanded playoffs, naturally increases the possibility that a mediocre team could walk away with the crown.

They could solve this by ending the regular season 10 days early to end on September 17, using doubleheaders and other ways to get to 72 games (or just shrinking the season further if the players are amenable). Then they would have 10 extra days to get in a lot more playoff games.

My proposal is that playoffs are expanded to 16 teams, but that all 15 series are Best-of-Seven series. On average, this will increase the expected number of nationally broadcast playoff games from 36 to 90 – a whopping increase of 150%. With $787 million reportedly at stake in television revenue for those 36 playoff games, it stands to reason that networks would pay at least half as much for the addition 54 games as the original 36, which brings in something like a whopping $590 million in extra revenue.

If players are content to simply get by on prorated salaries for 72 regular season games, they would receive about $1.84 billion in revenue. The owners’ extra playoff revenue places them in the equivalent position of 68% of prorated salaries. Marginal costs of operating these games are probably small enough to keep this only a couple percent higher. The owners almost certainly need the players to take a haircut smaller than 32%, so there is plenty of room for give in this approach. Even if networks were only willing to pay a third of the per-playoff-game rate, that would still be enough revenue to get owners to effectively pay the equivalent of 79% of prorated salaries. There is probably even room in there to give the players some playoff share, cover some marginal costs of games, and other things that could be required for this to be profitable to owners and acceptable to players.

As a result, the odds that an inferior team wins a given series are lower, and it becomes more likely that a deserving champion is crowned. The league could even take further advantage of the empty-stadium format by tilting home field advantage entirely towards the team with the superior regular season record.

I have researched home field advantage extensively, and have learned that rather than home crowd support or even last at-bats, the real reason home field advantage exists is that players are more familiar with their own parks. Teams who are home for a 7-game series will have a 59% chance of winning an evenly matched series already. A superior team certainly could easily have a 70% chance of winning a series in many cases.

This seems to be something that would accomplish the requisite situation for all parties, and there are many other ways that players could help teams add revenue without sacrificing their prorated salary demand. But the key is many more playoff games, since that is the only way owners make back losses they claim from the regular season, and the only way players do not have to surrender their principle of prorated salaries.

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