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Albert Pujols No Longer A Candidate In Angels’ Managerial Search

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2025 at 11:48am CDT

Albert Pujols won’t be the next manager of the Angels, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman writes that Pujols and the club have broken off talks due to differences between the sides regarding “coaches, resources, and compensation.” The Athletic’s Sam Blum reports that while circumstances could change, it’s believed to be “very unlikely” that the sides find common ground after being unable to get close in terms of dollars and years on hypothetical contract.

It wasn’t long ago that Pujols appeared to be the prohibitive favorite for the job. Blum reports that when Pujols and Minasian met in St. Louis 11 days ago to discuss the managerial job, the conversation went well and there was momentum towards a contract. Clearly, however, there was a financial gap between the sides that they were unable to bridge. One wrinkle in the matter is the ten-year, $10MM personal services contract Pujols signed with the Angels during his free agent negotiations with the club back in 2011. There are still seven years and $7MM remaining on that contract, and previous reporting indicated that the deal could be a factor in negotiations though it’s unclear exactly what role it played.

While Pujols won’t be the next manager in Anaheim, that doesn’t mean he won’t be in a dugout next year. The future Hall of Famer is set to interview with both the Padres and the Orioles, though he faces more competition in the races for those jobs than he did in Anaheim. Pujols was more or less the only candidate being considered by the Halos until talks began to stall. By contrast, both the Padres and Orioles have been connected to Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty, while interim Orioles manager Tony Mansolino remains a candidate in Baltimore and the Padres have also been connected to Rangers special assistant Nick Hundley.

As for the Angels, former players Torii Hunter and Kurt Suzuki are set to interview for the position. Blum reports that both are in the mix and that Hunter in particular is still a candidate but “not a slam-dunk” to land the job. He adds that while the team has interest in speaking to former Twins and Orioles managers Rocco Baldelli and Brandon Hyde, it’s unclear if that interest is mutual with either ex-skipper. Baldelli recently expressed an interest in returning to the dugout at some point but indicated he could look to take some time away from the game to spend with his family. Hyde, meanwhile, is known to have spoken to Giants president of baseball operations Buster Posey amid San Francisco’s own managerial search.

Perhaps with Pujols no longer in consideration, the Angels will advance their managerial search in the coming days. That could offer some clarity on the status of possible candidates like Hyde and Baldelli, as well as other possible targets like Cubs bench coach Ryan Flaherty and former Astros manager Bo Porter, who served as the Angels’ third base coach this season and has expressed interest in Anaheim’s managerial gig both publicly and privately after interviewing for the position two years ago before the hiring of Ron Washington.

Padres To Interview Albert Pujols In Managerial Search

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2025 at 11:40am CDT

As the Padres search for a replacement for retiring manager Mike Shildt, they’re setting their sights on a big name: future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. According to a report from Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, Pujols is set to interview for the position with the Padres, though it’s not yet known when that interview will take place.

Pujols’s name isn’t exactly new as a managerial candidate. He spent the early part of the offseason closely connected to the Angels as a potential successor to Ron Washington and Ray Montgomery in Anaheim. He was thought the be the favorite for that position at one point and was even known to be discussing a contract with Angels brass less than two weeks ago, but since then it’s been reported that Pujols will interview with Baltimore while the Halos have begun interviewing other candidates. While Pujols managing in Anaheim doesn’t seem to be off the table, it no longer appears to be a foregone conclusion as it once might have.

San Diego makes a third managerial vacancy that Pujols is set to interview for, and it’s quite an attractive one. Unlike the Orioles and Angels, the Padres made it to the postseason this year before falling to the Cubs in three games during the Wild Card series. While the Dodgers have a firm grip on the NL West that they don’t seem likely to relinquish any time soon, San Diego has made the playoffs in four of the last six seasons and even advanced to the NLCS back in 2022. They’ve averaged 88.5 wins per season over the past four years and have a talented core of players that includes Jackson Merrill, Manny Machado, Mason Miller, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Nick Pivetta, among others.

With that said, it’s also worth noting that the Padres are set to lose front-of-the-rotation arms Dylan Cease and Michael King this winter, with the starting rotation serving as a major question mark headed into next year. The questions regarding the rotation and the fact that some of the club’s star players like Machado are getting older could mean that the Padres don’t have quite as bright of a future as a team like the Orioles, which is littered with exciting young players in their prime who figure to be under team control for years to come.

Pujols is far from the only candidate for the Padres job, of course. Acee notes that pitching coach Ruben Niebla is expected to interview for the position. Cubs Bench Coach Ryan Flaherty, who also served as bench coach in San Diego under Bob Melvin and was a finalist for the manager’s chair before it ultimately went to Shildt two years ago, is also a speculated candidate for the job. Former Padres catcher and Rangers special assistant Nick Hundley is known to be of interest to San Diego for the role, but he recently withdrew from consideration from the manager role with the Giants due to family considerations and it’s not known if he would consider taking the Padres job at this point.

Monday Night Hockey Broadcasts EXCLUSIVELY on Amazon Prime! (Sponsored)

By Tim Dierkes | October 20, 2025 at 11:32am CDT

With hockey season in full swing, there’s no better way to experience the thrill of the game than with Amazon Prime’s exclusive Monday Night Hockey broadcasts. If you’re a fan of fast-paced action, nail-biting moments, and electrifying goals, you won’t want to miss what Prime has lined up this season.

Premier Matchups (all times EST):

Oct. 20 – Sabres vs. Canadiens (7:30 p.m.)
Two of the league’s youngest rosters clash in an early-season measuring stick. Buffalo’s high-flying offense takes on Montreal’s disciplined rebuild, making this a showcase of future Eastern Conference stars.

Oct. 27 – Bruins vs. Senators (7:30 p.m.)
A fierce Atlantic Division rivalry renewed — Boston’s veteran core against Ottawa’s talented youth. Expect intensity as the Senators try to prove they can finally hang with the perennial
powerhouse Bruins.

Nov. 3 – Penguins vs. Maple Leafs (7:30 p.m.)
Sidney Crosby and Auston Matthews headline a marquee matchup between two elite offenses. It’s a battle of eras — Pittsburgh’s seasoned stars versus Toronto’s prime-age scoring machine.

Nov. 10 – Blue Jackets vs. Oilers (8:30 p.m.)
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl face off against a scrappy Columbus squad eager to upset one of the NHL’s most explosive teams. It’s a true test of whether the Blue Jackets’ youth can
slow down Edmonton’s superstars.

Nov. 17 – Canadiens vs. Blue Jackets (7:30 p.m.)
Two rebuilding teams with promising young cores meet in a game that could be more competitive than the records suggest. Both Montreal and Columbus are hungry to establish momentum before the season’s midpoint.

Nov. 24 – Senators vs. Kings (9 p.m.)
A cross-conference matchup featuring two teams on the rise — Ottawa’s offensive flair versus Los Angeles’ structured, veteran-heavy approach. It’s a showcase of East-West contrasts and
playoff potential.

Dec. 1 – Jets vs. Sabres (7:30 p.m.)
High-paced hockey is guaranteed when Winnipeg’s elite goaltending meets Buffalo’s dynamic attack. Both teams boast game-breaking forwards and could be jockeying for playoff position by
December.

Dec. 8 – Lightning vs. Maple Leafs (7:30 p.m.)
A modern rivalry that always delivers drama — these Atlantic foes have met in multiple playoff thrillers. With both teams loaded with offensive stars, expect end-to-end action and playoff-
caliber intensity.

Dec. 15 – Senators vs. Jets (7:30 p.m.)
The Senators’ young guns face off against Winnipeg’s balanced, veteran-led lineup. Ottawa’s speed and skill will be tested by the Jets’ physicality and goaltending strength.

Dec. 22 – Canucks vs. Flyers (7:30 p.m.)
Vancouver’s West Coast talent collides with Philadelphia’s blue-collar identity. Both teams are unpredictable, which makes this late-December matchup a potential sleeper hit.

Dec. 29 – Oilers vs. Jets (7:30 p.m.)
An all-Canadian showdown featuring some of the league’s biggest names. Edmonton’s offensive firepower goes head-to-head with Winnipeg’s elite goaltending — a possible playoff preview and
a perfect way to close out 2025’s Prime Mondays.

Throughout the remainder of 2025, Prime Video will showcase a lineup of games that are not only crucial for playoff standings but also highlight fierce rivalries and thrilling storylines.

Exclusive Features for Prime Members

In addition to the thrilling matchups, Amazon Prime offers features that enhance your viewing experience. Prime members can enjoy:

Multiple Camera Angles: Choose your perspective with various camera views, giving you control over how you watch the game.
Real-Time Stats and Insights: Stay informed with up-to-the-minute statistics and expert commentary that bring context to the action on the ice.
Post-Game Analysis: Dive deeper into the game with post-match breakdowns and highlights that analyze the key moments and decisions.

Join the Community:

Watching hockey through Amazon Prime isn’t just about the games; it’s about being part of a community of passionate fans. Engage with fellow viewers through the platform’s social
media channels, where you can share your thoughts, predictions, and reactions during and after games. Join discussions, participate in polls, and celebrate your team’s victories
alongside others who share your enthusiasm.

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Marlins Interested In Devin Williams

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2025 at 11:01am CDT

Coming off a season where they made a surprise push towards contention and ultimately finished just four games out of a playoff spot with a 79-83 record, the Marlins look poised to try and take a step forward towards more serious contention this winter. That could mean looking to add, and reporting has already indicated that Miami will be active in the bullpen and position player markets as they seek upgrades. When it comes to the search for relief help, Kevin Barral of Fish On First reports that one name that Miami plans to target is two-time All-Star Devin Williams.

Williams, 31, has been one of the most successful relievers in the game ever since he won the NL Rookie of the Year award with the Brewers back in 2020. In parts of six seasons with Milwaukee, Williams made a case for himself as baseball’s best reliever with a 1.83 ERA and a 39.4% strikeout rate in 235 2/3 innings of work. He converted 87.2% of his save opportunities and his 2.66 SIERA with Milwaukee was the fourth-best figure in baseball among relievers with at least 200 innings of work between 2019 and 2024, trailing only Liam Hendriks, Edwin Diaz, and Josh Hader.

Ahead of his final season of team control, the Brewers made the decision last offseason to deal Williams to the Yankees in exchange for southpaw Nestor Cortes Jr. and infielder Caleb Durbin. Williams’s year in the Bronx did not go how anyone was expecting it to, however, as he struggled significantly for the first time in his career. Williams posted a lackluster 4.79 ERA in 62 innings for the Yankees. While the right-hander was in line to potentially land one of the largest free agent deals for a reliever in history this time last year, his tough stint in New York has significantly changed the expectations surrounding Williams’s expected contract.

That drop in market value for Williams could create an opportunity for the Marlins, who have never been among the league’s biggest spenders and surely view the situation as an opportunity to potentially bring in an elite reliever on a relative bargain. Despite his poor results with the Yankees, Williams posted strong peripherals that should offer Miami some confidence in investing in the right-hander. Among qualified relievers this year, Williams’s 2.68 FIP ranks 18th, his 2.67 SIERA ranks 15th, and his 34.7% strikeout rate was still the 8th-best figure in baseball.

All of those peripherals indicate Williams still has the ability of a star closer, and after a season where the Marlins spread save opportunities between nine different players they should certainly be able to offer Williams the ninth inning. That could make Miami a more attractive destination than some other teams that might have interested in Williams but can’t offer a clear path to the ninth inning. Williams recently gave a vague answer when asked about whether or not the ability to serve as a club’s closer would impact his decision-making in free agency, saying that it “depends on the scenario.”

Given Williams’s stature in the game and likely deflated price tag, the Marlins surely won’t be the only team interested in his services. He’s indicated a willingness to stick with the Yankees even after a tough year this season, and virtually every team in baseball tends to be in the market for relief help every winter. Looking at closer jobs around the game, the Braves are set to lose Raisel Iglesias to free agency, the Dodgers could be looking for a new long-term solution in the ninth inning after Tanner Scott’s struggles led them to turn to starter Roki Sasaki when closing out postseason games, and the Tigers were known to be looking for a veteran with closing experience last winter despite ultimately coming up short.

Bo Porter Hoping For Another Managerial Opportunity

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2025 at 9:59am CDT

Angels coach Bo Porter is hoping to get another chance to manager in the majors, as he told The Athletic’s Britt Ghiroli recently. More specifically, Ghiroli writes that Porter is “very interested” in the current managerial vacancy in Anaheim.

Porter, 53, was previously the manager of the Astros from 2013-14. That stint in Houston did not go especially well, as the club went a combined 110-190 under his guidance in those two seasons. Outside of that managerial stint, Porter’s previously served as the third base coach with the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Nationals, and Braves. He was initially hired as the first base coach in Anaheim but was moved to third base in May. He also played parts of three seasons in the majors with the Cubs, A’s, and Rangers.

For Porter and any other former managers hoping for another shot, the current landscape is certainly a favorable one. There are seven teams currently hunting for a new manager. While the Giants seem to be closing in on their decision, searches are still ongoing in Anaheim, San Diego, Baltimore, Minnesota, Atlanta, and Washington D.C. while the Rockies have not yet even begun the managerial search as they sort out who will run the front office going forward. While it seems as though Porter is more broadly interested in a return to managing, he specifically highlighted his desire to be considered for the job in Anaheim again after interviewing for the role back in 2023 before it ultimately went to Ron Washington.

“I would enjoy managing the Angels because I’ve been there the last two years, I’ve made an investment there,” Porter told Ghiroli, “The relationships have already been fortified.”

He went on to note that he’s made his interest in interviewing for the job known to club GM Perry Minasian. As noted by Ghiroli, at one point it seemed as though the Angels’ managerial search might be a quick one given future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols’s status as the favorite. Since then, however, Pujols has also interviewed with the Orioles while the Angels have begun to interview other candidates. That seemed to suggest a more wide open search, but Ghiroli reports that some of the candidates the Angels were previously reported as hoping to interview for the position have not yet been contacted by the Angels.

That could be taken as an indication that the tide is shifting away from a wider managerial search, though it’s also possible the club is waiting for more information on Pujols’s candidacy before more fully conducting a wider search. After all, Pujols was viewed as the heavy favorite for the job at the outset of the offseason and was known to be actively discussing a contract with Angels brass less than two weeks ago. Of course, it’s also possible that the Angels are simply opting to take their time with their search for a new manager. That would make particular sense if the club has interest in interviewing any personnel from the Dodgers, Mariners, or Blue Jays organizations given that all three of those clubs are still in the playoff mix at this point.

Submit Your Questions For This Week’s Episode Of The MLBTR Podcast

By Darragh McDonald | October 20, 2025 at 8:50am CDT

On the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, we regularly answer questions from our readers and listeners. With the next episode set for Wednesday, we’re looking for MLBTR’s audience to submit their questions and we’ll pick a few to answer.

The 2025 regular season is now over and the playoffs are in full swing. Do you have a question about the season which just ended? The postseason? The upcoming offseason? If you have a question on those topics or anything else baseball-related, we’d love to hear from you! You can email your questions to mlbtrpod@gmail.com.

Also, if you want to hear your voice on the podcast, send us your question in audio form and we might play it. iPhone users can find instructions on how to do so here.

In the meantime, don’t forget to subscribe to the podcast on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.

The Opener: ALCS, Giants, Rockies

By Nick Deeds | October 20, 2025 at 8:19am CDT

As the playoffs continue, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. ALCS Game 7

After a resounding win over the Mariners in Game 6 of the ALCS last night, the Blue Jays have managed to force a Game 7 to determine who will face the Dodgers in the World Series as they attempt to become the first team to repeat in the World Series since the 1998-2000 Yankees. Tonight’s game is scheduled for 8:10pm local time in Toronto, when right-hander Shane Bieber (3.57 ERA) is set to take the mound for the Jays opposite Seattle righty George Kirby (4.21 ERA). Kirby will be looking for redemption after he was torched to the tune of eight runs in just four innings of work during Game 3 of this series, while Bieber will look to build on a solid performance where he struck out eight Mariners while allowing two runs in six innings of work in that same game.

2. Giants managerial search nearing conclusion?

The Giants are set to potentially make waves as they zero in on University of Tennessee head coach Tony Vitello as their next manager. No deal is done yet, but a decision is reportedly expected in the coming days. If Vitello were to be hired, it would be a game changing hire given his lack of experience in professional baseball. Vitello emerged as San Francisco’s top choice after Rangers special assistant Nick Hundley withdrew his name from consideration for the role due to family considerations. Hundley was also viewed as a potential candidate for managerial vacancies in Anaheim and San Diego, though it seems those same family considerations would surely apply to the job in Anaheim. As a San Diego native, the Padres job might be more appealing for Hundley although it also wouldn’t be a surprise if he simply stayed in his current role with the Rangers at this point.

3. Rockies GM search nearing next stage:

San Francisco isn’t the only NL West club making progress in their search personnel search, as the Rockies are reportedly expected to narrow their search for Bill Schmidt’s replacement at the top of their baseball operations department to a list of finalists this week. While there are a number of managerial vacancies in the sport at the moment, Colorado’s job is the only vacancy at the head of baseball operations now that Paul Toboni has been hired by the Nationals to replace Mike Rizzo. Once the GM search is completed, Colorado’s new steward will immediately be tasked with their own managerial decision given that interim manager Warren Schaeffer’s status has been left up to the new baseball ops boss.

Foster Griffin Looking To Return To MLB In Free Agency

By Mark Polishuk | October 19, 2025 at 11:05pm CDT

Left-hander Foster Griffin’s Major League resume consists of seven games and eight innings of 6.75 ERA ball with the Royals and Blue Jays during the 2020 and 2022 seasons. Looking for a change of scenery, Griffin signed with the Yomiuri Giants prior to the 2023 season, and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman reports that the 30-year-old southpaw is now looking to return to North American baseball after three successful years in Japan.

While Griffin hadn’t shown much in his few cups of coffee in the majors, he posted a 2.10 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate over 51 1/3 relief innings with the Royals’ and Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliates in 2022. Griffin had started almost all of his pro games prior to the 2022 campaign, but the move to full-time bullpen work seemed to unlock something for Griffin after some inconsistent results as a starter.

Injuries also played a role in Griffin’s career. Griffin’s tore his UCL in his very first big league game in 2020, resulting in a Tommy John procedure and a long stint on the shelf. His good numbers in 2022 seemed to indicate that he’d covered well from his surgery, but his decision to head overseas may have been inspired by a desire to get another crack at starting.

The decision to bet on himself looks to have paid off. Griffin had a 2.57 ERA, 25.07% strikeout rate, and 5.52% walk rate across 315 2/3 innings and 54 games with the Giants. His debut year in 2023 was so impressive that the Giants inked him to a two-year extension, which is notable since foreign-born players in NPB are usually given just one-year deals. Griffin’s work helped the Giants reach the postseason in each of the last two NPB seasons.

FanSided’s Robert Murray mentioned back in July that MLB teams had taken notice of Griffin’s numbers in Japan, so with his contract with the Giants now completed, it isn’t surprising that Griffin is aiming to get back to the bigs. Merrill Kelly or Erick Fedde are among the recent example of pitchers who reinvented themselves in foreign leagues and returned to land multi-year free agent commitments, and the same could be true for Griffin despite his thin track record in the Show. Teams are forever looking to add starting pitching, and Griffin is an interesting lower-cost option for any club in need of rotation help.

NL Notes: D’Backs, Goldschmidt, Giants, Scherzer, McEwing

By Mark Polishuk | October 19, 2025 at 10:21pm CDT

Tyler Locklear will begin the season on the injured list while rehabbing from elbow and shoulder surgeries, leaving the Diamondbacks thin on the first base depth chart. The left-handed hitting Pavin Smith will get at least a share of the regular at-bats, but given Smith’s struggles against southpaws, a right-handed bat would be a useful platoon partner or a candidate for DH time. With this in mind, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7FM radio believes the D’Backs will “kick the tires on a reunion with Paul Goldschmidt” this winter.

Goldschmidt spent the first eight seasons of his outstanding career with the Snakes, making six All-Star appearances while hitting .297/.398/.532 with 209 homers over 4708 plate appearances. Traded to the Cardinals prior to the 2019 season, Goldschmidt kept up much of that form over his six-year run in St. Louis, but he has just about been a league-average bat (102 wRC+) over his last two seasons and 1188 PA with the Cardinals and Yankees. Playing with New York last year, Goldschmidt had a hot start but faded down the stretch, leading the Yankees to give Ben Rice an increasingly large share of the first base playing time.

Now entering his age-38 season, Goldschmidt may no longer be an ideal everyday option, but he had a .336/.411/.570 slash line in 168 PA against lefties in 2025. These splits will get him looks from multiple teams in free agency, and returning to his original team in a timeshare with Smith seems like a pretty decent fit for all parties.

Each Team’s Penalty For Signing A Qualifying Offer-Rejecting Free Agent

By Mark Polishuk | October 19, 2025 at 7:06pm CDT

Since we just looked at what teams would stand to receive in draft compensation if they lost a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer, now it’s time to explore what each team would have to give up in order to sign a QO-rejecting free agent.

To recap the mechanics: if a free agent has played the entire 2024 season with a team and he has never received a qualifying offer in the past, he is eligible to be issued a QO within five days of the end of the World Series. The qualifying offer is a one-year deal worth the average of the salaries of the top 125 highest-paid players in the majors, and this winter, the QO is worth $22.025MM. An eligible free agent can simply accept the QO and thus avoid free agency entirely, but if he rejects the QO, his former team is now in line to receive some draft-pick compensation if the free agent signs elsewhere. This only relates to qualified free agents from other teams, as a club can re-sign its own qualified free agents with no penalty.

Here is the (mostly set) rundown of what every team will have to give up if they sign qualified free agent.…

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, Pirates, Marlins, Athletics, Mariners, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Guardians, Orioles, Rays

Should one of these clubs sign a qualified free agent, they will have to give up their third-highest selection in the 2026 draft. Since most of these smaller-market teams are part of the Competitive Balance bonus rounds of the draft, their third-highest pick likely won’t mean their third-round pick, and the situation could be further complicated if any of the teams trade from their CBR picks. The Competitive Balance selections are the only draft picks eligible to be traded — for the 2025 draft, five total picks over the two CBR rounds were made by teams who acquired those selections in trades prior to draft day.

These lower-spending teams usually don’t splurge on bigger-name free agents in general, yet last offseason saw the Diamondbacks sign Corbin Burnes, and the Athletics (!) sign Luis Severino. The Tigers also made a push to land Alex Bregman, and Detroit might feel more pressure about sealing the deal on a splashy move this winter since Tarik Skubal is only a year away from free agency. The Orioles or Reds could be candidates to spend a little more than usual, with Cincinnati trying to build on a playoff appearance and Baltimore trying to bounce back from a disappointing 2025. Seattle could also explore qualified free agents, but the M’s are more likely to first focus on trying to re-sign one of their own guys in Josh Naylor, who isn’t eligible for a QO.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Giants, Cardinals, Cubs, Braves, Nationals, Angels, White Sox

For signing a qualified free agent, these teams would have to surrender their second-highest pick of the 2026 draft, and also $500K from their bonus pool during the next international signing period.

The rebuilding Cardinals and White Sox and won’t be spending big in free agency. The same is very likely true of the Nationals, whose own rebuild period is likely to be extended since new president of baseball operations Paul Toboni will need time to evaluate (and overhaul) the organization. Texas is planning to either stand pat on spending or reduce payroll.

Under Alex Anthopoulos, the Braves have generally been more inclined to build their roster through trades or their own farm system rather than long-term free agent deals, but Atlanta could change tactics after a losing season in 2025. The Angels figure to be active in free agency, even if spending bigger on a qualified free agent might not necessarily be on the radar. San Francisco signed qualified free agent Willy Adames last winter, and are again expected to at least check in many of the major free agent names. There doesn’t appear to be much optimism that the Cubs will re-sign Kyle Tucker, but they could respond to a Tucker departure by making some other prominent signings.

Part of the equation for these clubs and the clubs in the next two categories could be what other picks they’re receiving this winter, to balance out their draft capital. For instance, if Tucker rejects a QO and signs elsewhere, the Cubs would get a compensatory pick just before the start of the third round of the draft. While a lower selection than whatever Chicago’s second-highest pick would be, getting another draft pick back and then losing a pick to sign a qualified free agent somewhat makes it a wash for the Cubs.

Teams In Limbo: Astros, Rangers, Red Sox

As noted in the last post, it won’t be known until December (when the luxury tax numbers are officially calculated by the league) whether or not the Astros managed to sneak under the $241MM tax threshold. RosterResource has Houston slightly under the threshold while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the Astros slightly over the line. Given this discrepancy and the narrow margins involved, we’ll keep the Astros in their own special grouping until the league issues the official Competitive Balance Tax numbers in December.

Since Houston were tax-payors in 2024, the Astros might have reset their CBT status if they were indeed able to stay under the $241MM line. Being a two-time payor means an escalating tax rate, and that tax bill would keep escalating if the Astros again finished over the $244MM threshold in 2026. Caveat: the collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2026 season, so the qualifying offer system or luxury tax system might very well be adjusted or even heavily changed in a new CBA, so a repeater-tax status might no longer be a concern to the Astros or other teams.

Staying under the 2025 tax line also means the Astros could be more willing to explore signing qualified free agents, though their tax-payor status last winter didn’t stop the team from signing Christian Walker.

As noted in the previous post, the Rangers could end up as tax-payors and the Red Sox may have ducked under the tax line, depending on the league’s final calculations. Boston seems the likelier of those two teams to sign a qualified free agent, as the Rangers are expected to reduce payroll this offseason.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Phillies, Yankees, Blue Jays

As one would expect, these teams face the stiffest penalties. For signing a QO-rejecting free agent, these clubs would have to give up $1MM in international bonus pool money, as well as two draft picks — their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2026 draft.

All seven of these clubs are clearly in win-now mode, so the higher penalties shouldn’t be much of an obstacle towards a pursuit of qualified free agents in most cases. (The Padres are the probable exception since they’re operating within a narrower payroll margin.) Since every team would prefer to keep their draft picks if they can help it, the tax payors might target non-qualified free agents who aren’t tied to draft compensation. For instance, while the Dodgers are expected to at least check in Tucker’s market, Los Angeles could consider any number of other free agents before aiming at the outfielder that will cost the most in both contract size and additional draft penalties.

Since re-signing your own QO-rejecting free agent comes with no penalty, this could make some of these clubs more inclined to retain their own impending free agents rather than seek out new talent. The Phillies have been public with their desire to keep Kyle Schwarber, and the Blue Jays will undoubtedly be keeping tabs on Bo Bichette.

Should a club sign more than one qualified free agent, they will have to additionally forfeit their next-highest draft pick. For signing two QO-rejecting free agents, the revenue-sharing group would have to give up their third- and fourth-highest picks in the 2026 draft. The teams who didn’t exceed the CBT or receive revenue-sharing funds would have to give up their second- and third-highest picks, as well as $500K more of their international bonus pool. The luxury tax payors would face the heftier penalty of losing four draft picks — their second, third, fifth, and sixth-highest selections.

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