As the New Year approaches, star outfielder Kyle Tucker is reaching rarely-charted territory as this winter’s top free agent. Juan Soto signed just before the Winter Meetings last year, while two years ago Shohei Ohtani signed with the Dodgers shortly thereafter. Aaron Judge signed with the Yankees on the final day of the Winter Meetings three years ago, and Carlos Correa agreed to $300MM deals with both the Giants and Mets in December 2021, though both of those deals ultimately ended up falling through.
If Tucker is going to follow in the trend of top free agents finding a new home in December, he’s running out of time to do so. It’s been an unusually quiet free agency for the offseason’s biggest star. While any lineup would be significantly better off for adding someone who’s hit .277/.365/.514 over the past five seasons, few teams have actually been connected to Tucker directly. Some of that could be due to a lack of interest from the teams that know Tucker best. While Ohtani, Judge, and Soto were all pursued by the teams they were departing in free agency, that’s not so for Tucker.
The incumbent Cubs have made it extremely clear this offseason that they don’t have much intention of reuniting with Tucker, instead preferring to peruse the high-end rotation market and go with youngsters like Moises Ballesteros and Owen Caissie to replace Tucker’s big lefty bat in the lineup. Tucker’s previous team, the Astros, have never spent anywhere close to what it would take to bring Tucker back to Houston on a free agent deal and seem unlikely to start now. While both clubs’ lack of interest in Tucker seems to be more about a hesitance regarding long-term deals than anything regarding Tucker specifically, it still takes two logical fits out of his marketplace.
That doesn’t mean there’s been zero interest in Tucker, of course. The Blue Jays reportedly invited Tucker to their Spring Training facility earlier this month and have been by far the team most frequently connected to the outfielder. With that being said, Toronto is also known to have interest in retaining star infielder Bo Bichette. After signing Dylan Cease last month, the club may not have the appetite to add two more megadeals to the books. The Orioles are in a similar boat, having been expressly connected to Tucker on multiple occasions but now appear to be more or less out of that market after bringing in Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso.
Other more speculative suitors have few clear obstacles to signing Tucker but come with their own caveats. The Dodgers have space in their outfield and were connected to Tucker early in the winter but have expressed concerns about the aging nature of their roster, have a stable of intriguing outfield prospects, and seem to prefer to go smaller this winter than they have in recent years. That doesn’t mean they won’t sign Tucker, but it seems as though they might only have interest in him on a shorter-term deal (or perhaps following a trade of Teoscar Hernandez, though that appears unlikely).
The New York teams appear to be in a similar boat to Los Angeles. The Yankees pursued Tucker on the trade market last winter and have space in their outfield for another big bat, but appear to be focused on Cody Bellinger at this point. Even if they miss on Bellinger, GM Brian Cashman has expressed concerns over their lineup being too left-handed. The Mets, meanwhile, cleared a spot in their outfield mix when they dealt Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers. With owner Steve Cohen’s willingness to spend, a big contract for a star can never be entirely ruled out. With that said, president of baseball operations David Stearns has mostly shied away from longer term deals. While exceptions were made for pursuits of Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, both of those stars were three years younger than the soon-to-be 29-year-old Tucker.
It’s always possible a surprising team steps up and makes a big offer, but there aren’t many clear candidates for that sort of bid looking around the league. The Giants are known to be interested in adding to their outfield, but they just landed a big contract over the summer when they traded for Rafael Devers and might not want to add Tucker to books that already include Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, and Jung Hoo Lee long-term. The Phillies seemed like a fit at one point, but their reunion with Kyle Schwarber and their signing of Adolis Garcia make that difficult to see now. The Tigers once spent at a high level with big deals for players like Miguel Cabrera, but haven’t done so under Chris Ilitch even while competitive. The Angels have made big splashes in free agency for position players before but might not want to add another big contract as they negotiate a buyout for the player they brought in on their last megadeal.
Where do MLBTR readers think Tucker will ultimately land? Will the Blue Jays pony up for him, even if it means spurning Bichette? Will he be the latest star to fall into Andrew Friedman’s lap in free agency? Will a New York team step up? Or could a surprise contender swoop in and sign him? Have your say in the poll below:
