Latest On Royals’ Rotation
The Royals announced that right-handers Ryan Bergert and Mason Black have both been optioned to Triple-A Omaha. The two of them will begin the 2026 season as rotation depth options for the club.
The two came into camp blocked for rotation roles. Their only real path would be if someone ahead of them got injured. The Royals have been fortunate in that regard and should start the season with their projected top five of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron. The most notable injury in camp thus far was an oblique strain for Stephen Kolek, who was likely ticketed for Triple-A.
With five healthy guys in the rotation, that squeezes Bergert and Black to the minors, where they should be joined by Ben Kudrna, Luinder Avila and Mitch Spence. Spence and Avila haven’t been officially optioned yet but Avila has been away from the club, playing for Venezuela in their World Baseball Classic championship run. Kolek can jump into that mix whenever he’s healthy.
With all of those depth options, it leaves Bailey Falter in an interesting spot. Per Anne Rogers of MLB.com, the Royals have considered using him as a sixth starter or long reliever but are also open to trading him.
Falter has been a serviceable but not dominant pitcher in his career. In 466 innings, he has allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine. His 6.9% walk rate is quite strong but he has only punched out 17.8% of batters faced.
Kansas City traded for Falter at last year’s deadline when Bubic, Ragans and Michael Lorenzen were all on the injured list. Lorenzen came back a few weeks later, which got Falter nudged to the bullpen. After two relief outings, Falter himself landed on the IL due to a left bicep contusion. He spent a little more than a month on the IL to finish the season.
Falter is out of options and can’t be sent to the minors. That means the Royals have to keep him on the active roster or else remove him from the 40-man entirely. A trade would be one way to do that but his value probably isn’t terribly high. As mentioned, his results have been more passable than great. He can’t be optioned down to Triple-A and is going to make $3.6MM this year.
While there are certainly other teams who could use some extra depth, they have other options. Free agency still has guys like Lucas Giolito, Tyler Anderson and Patrick Corbin out there. As Opening Day nears, there are some veterans who could opt out of minor league deals. Some arms will also end up on waivers as teams make their final roster decisions as well.
Photo courtesy of Denny Medley, Imagn Images
Royals Have Received Interest In Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek
Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo is on record about the club’s willingness to trade from their rotation for outfield help. Most of the focus has been on left-hander Kris Bubic, who is down to his final season of arbitration. Even if Bubic remains the likeliest candidate, K.C. has predictably gotten hits on their controllable arms as well.
Anne Rogers of MLB.com writes that the Royals have gotten calls on each of Noah Cameron, Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek. (The Cardinals are among the teams known to like Cameron, who is coming off a 2.99 ERA across 24 starts as a rookie.) Bergert and Kolek are less established but also have extended windows of club control. Bergert has yet to reach a full service year and is under control for six seasons; Kolek has a little over one year of service, so he’s controllable for five years.
The two right-handers landed in Kansas City over the summer in the same deadline trade. The Royals picked up both arms in a trade sending backup catcher Freddy Fermin to the Padres. It was a nice bit of business for Picollo and his staff. Bergert combined for a 3.66 earned run average with a solid 22.6% strikeout rate over his first 19 MLB appearances. He sits in the 93-94 MPH range and has an above-average slider. If he can develop a better changeup or add a cutter against left-handed hitters, he could be a mid-rotation arm.
Kolek is a former Rule 5 selection who moved back to the rotation after spending his rookie year working out of San Diego’s bullpen. He’s also in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball and uses six pitches with regularity. Kolek’s stuff has never played for many whiffs, but he got ground-balls at a strong 51.4% clip over 19 starts this year. He tallied 112 2/3 innings of 3.51 ERA ball, and while that’s better than his peripherals suggest, he looks like a fine fourth/fifth starter.
As it stands, neither Bergert nor Kolek project as one of the top five starters on the depth chart. Cole Ragans, Michael Wacha, Seth Lugo, Bubic and Cameron would be the front five if everyone’s healthy. Bergert and Kolek have minor league options, so they could begin the season in Triple-A. Bailey Falter is out of options and probably ticketed for long relief if he sticks on the roster all offseason.
The Royals are unlikely to trade Wacha or Lugo, each of whom recently signed significant extensions. They’ll probably hear teams out on Cameron, but the asking price would be significant even if his middling 20.5% strikeout rate suggests he’s unlikely to turn in another sub-3.00 season. The only pitcher whom the team is all but firmly taking off the table is Ragans.
“We’re in a really good spot, so if the right trade comes along, and it costs us a starting pitcher, we have to look at it. It’s just not going to be Cole,” Picollo told Rogers. He subsequently left the door ever so slightly open with the caveat that another team could offer “something crazy,” but he pointed out that they’d be selling low on an ace-caliber pitcher who missed a good chunk of the season with a rotator cuff strain.
“We have to ask ourselves: Is this his max value right now? Probably not,” Picollo said. “If Cole pitches like he did in ‘24, who knows what his value is going to be? We just think right now, three years of control on a really good starting pitcher, it would have to be something crazy, something that’s like, ‘How can we pass this up?'”
The focus for Kansas City remains acquiring multiple outfielders, one apiece in trade and free agency. Rogers writes that they’re specifically after a right-handed hitter who can play center field. Harrison Bader is the top free agent center fielder, while Jake Meyers fits that bill on the trade front. The Royals have unsurprisingly been linked to both players this week. Speculatively speaking, Colorado’s Brenton Doyle is another possibility — though he’s coming off a terrible offensive season and might be too redundant to another glove-only player in Kyle Isbel. High-end talents Byron Buxton and Luis Robert Jr. are unlikely to move at all this offseason, and that’s before getting into the difficulty of lining up a trade within the division.
In free agency, Rogers lists JJ Bleday, Adolis García and Lane Thomas as players whom the front office has considered. All three are reclamation targets, and none should be an everyday option in center field. García is a full-time corner outfielder. Bleday and Thomas have played up the middle but fit better in right field, especially in a spacious outfield. García will be the most expensive of that trio but they’re all likely to take one-year deals.
While the outfield is still the priority, Picollo called adding a reliever a “secondary” goal. Bringing in another lefty to join Angel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch IV would be preferable. It’s a rough class for free agent lefty relievers, but the Royals are facing budgetary constrains and weren’t likely to spend big on that either way. Danny Coulombe, Hoby Milner, Caleb Ferguson, Caleb Thielbar and Drew Pomeranz are among the available free agents. The Cardinals’ JoJo Romero is the most obvious bullpen trade candidate of the winter. Tanner Banks, Keegan Akin and Brandon Eisert are a few other players who could be available for a modest trade return.
Kansas City’s Impressive Rotation Stockpile Is Ripe For A Trade
After making it to Game 4 of the ALDS last year on the back of a solid 86-win campaign, the Royals took a step back this year with an 82-80 record that left them five games back of an AL Wild Card spot when all was said and done. It was a disappointing season, though Kansas City really performed rather admirably considering that they got just 13 starts out of staff ace Cole Ragans while Kris Bubic found himself sidelined for the second half by an injury of his own. While health in the rotation helped to sink the team this year, it’s possible that the team’s deep arsenal of starters could help them reinvent the team on the trade market as they look ahead to 2026.
Given that Kansas City’s rotation being unable to stay healthy proved to be the difference between a return to the playoffs this year and sitting at home this October, it might sound like blasphemy to suggest trading from that same rotation should be on the table for the Royals this winter. The reality of the club’s situation, however, is that they would have been able to get by with their contributions from the rotation had their offense put up more of a fight. The Kansas City offense posted a 93 wRC+ this year, good for just 22nd in the majors as they slashed just .247/.309/.397 as a team.
That’s a tough slash line to put together a contender with as it is, but the need for improvement is highlighted by the success of the team’s stars. Three players made up the majority of that production: Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr. and Vinnie Pasquantino. Meanwhile, production at second base and in the outfield left much to be desired thanks to disappointing seasons from players like Jac Caglianone, Jonathan India, and Michael Massey. While no one should give up on Caglianone this soon, an improved supporting cast for Witt, Franco, and Pasquantino will be necessary if the club is going to find success next year.
Perhaps a well-executed move or two in free agency (like bringing back Mike Yastrzemski, who excelled with the team after a mid-season trade) could help get the offense on track for next year. But RosterResource projects the Royals for a payroll of $129MM in 2026 as things stand. That means they’d exceed last year’s payroll simply by picking up a club option on franchise icon Salvador Perez. Ownership seems reluctant to raise payroll beyond where it was this past year, and while non-tenders for some of the club’s pricier and less productive arbitration-level players like India and right-hander James McArthur could create more flexibility, money is sure to be tight this winter for Kansas City.
Given that reality, the trade market seems like the team’s best bet for improving the offense. That brings us back to the team’s incredible deep group of rotation candidates. Ragans and Bubic are joined by veteran right-handers Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha as locks for the 2026 rotation, with rookie southpaw Noah Cameron standing as the overwhelming favorite for the fifth starter job. Behind that quintet, however, the Royals have a number of viable starters on affordable deals: Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek, Bailey Falter, and Kyle Wright. Any of that quartet could at least theoretically be dangled as part of a package to improve the offense.
Falter struggled badly in 12 innings with the Royals but had a 3.73 ERA in 22 starts with the Pirates prior to a midseason trade, while Wright last pitched in the majors back in 2023 due to injuries but won 21 games and finished in the top 10 for NL Cy Young award voting with Atlanta during the 2022 season. Neither pitcher could be expected to bring back a valuable bat by themselves, but perhaps a starting-pitching hungry club would be interested in trading a hitter for a package that combines either Falter or Wright with some of the Royals’ prospect capital.
Kolek and Bergert, meanwhile, are intriguing arms. Acquired from the Padres in the Freddy Fermin trade at this year’s deadline, both Kolek (3.51 ERA in 19 starts) and Bergert (3.86 ERA in 15 starts) pitched like capable mid-rotation arms in part-time roles last year and will still make the league minimum next season. Virtually any team in baseball would be interested in getting their hands on them, and it’s not at all hard to imagine a team with an excess of interesting young hitters like the Mets, Cubs or Giants being willing to part ways with some of that talent to acquire one of those players.
Dealing Kolek or Bergert could bring back a similarly controllable hitter who hasn’t yet fully established themselves at the big league level, but it’s also entirely possible that the Royals could look to take another shot at a deal like the Brady Singer for Jonathan India swap from last offseason. That one didn’t go very well given India’s struggles this winter and Singer’s respectable mid-rotation performance in 32 starts for Cincinnati, but perhaps this winter could go differently if the Royals decided to listen to offers on lefty Kris Bubic.
Bubic dominated this season with a 2.55 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 20 starts that earned him an All-Star nod, and while a rotator cuff strain ended his 2025 campaign early he’s expected to have a normal offseason and be ready for Spring Training 2026. After emerging as a legitimate front-of-the-rotation arm this year, Bubic’s value to the 2026 Royals is obvious. With that being said, he’s also slated to reach free agency following the 2026 campaign, and if he turns in another season anything like last year the Royals won’t be able to afford to keep him in town.
That could make listening to offers on the lefty an attractive proposition, particularly if a quality everyday regular controlled beyond 2026 could be had in exchange for Bubic’s services. Teams like the Mets and Red Sox figure to have interest in the high-end pitching market this winter and have plenty of controllable hitters who could help transform the Royals lineup. With Bergert and Kolek available to backfill the rotation after a hypothetical Bubic trade, it’s easy to imagine the team being able to put together one of the more productive rotations in baseball even without Bubic.
Cost-controlled, high-upside pitchers are some of the hottest commodities on the trade market in baseball for a reason. They aren’t easy to come by, and “you can never have too much pitching” is a baseball cliche for a reason. Even teams with deep groups of potential starters are often reluctant to deal them away for fear that a rash of injuries could leave them understaffed and wishing they still had that young arm they dealt away during the offseason.
With all that being said, the Royals are in clear need of a makeover on offense, and a higher payroll doesn’t appear to be on the way to make that happen in free agency. This winter could be a particularly fruitful trade market for pitching as well, given the lack of a slam-dunk ace at the top of the class like Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have been in recent offseasons. If Kansas City hopes to compete with the Tigers and Guardians headed into next season and make the most of Witt’s time with the team, dealing some of their coveted pitching assets might prove to be a necessity.
AL Central Notes: Tigers, Morton, Lugo, Bergert, Wallner
A year after reaching the playoffs due to a late-season surge, the Tigers are now facing an opposite scenario in 2025. The scorching-hot Guardians are on an eight-game winning streak and have won 13 of their last 14 games, while Detroit has lost seven of its last eight games — including a three-game sweep at home against the Guards. The Tigers’ AL Central lead shrunk to just 2.5 games after a 10-1 loss to the Braves on Friday, as starter Charlie Morton was torched for six runs in just 1 1/3 innings.
Acquired from the Orioles at the trade deadline, Morton has an 11.65 ERA over his last five starts, and a 7.09 overall ERA across his 39 1/3 innings in a Detroit uniform. Speaking with the Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold and other reporters yesterday, Morton was at a loss to explain his sudden inability to throw strikes, and said “I’m personally really disappointed in myself.” Given these struggles, Morton is “not expecting anything” in terms of another turn in the rotation, and manager A.J. Hinch was also non-committal on the subject.
The problem with removing Morton from the rotation is that the Tigers don’t have a ready-made replacement. Chris Paddack was already moved to the bullpen due to his own struggles, Jose Uriquidy is pitching in relief after his long injury layoff, Troy Melton or Tyler Holton are more long men than true starters, and Sawyer Gipson-Long is on the 15-day injured list. The Tigers could use some combination of all the healthy pitchers in this season’s version of their “Pitching Chaos” tactic, yet there are no easy answers in what has suddenly become a very tense pennant race.
More from the AL Central…
- Seth Lugo‘s return before the end of the season seems like a “long shot,” as Royals manager Matt Quatraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters. Lugo hasn’t pitched since August 29 due to a lower back strain, and he had a setback following a bullpen session on Monday. Quatraro said Lugo is now feeling better in the aftermath of that bullpen but hasn’t resumed throwing, so the veteran righty is simply running short on time to get fully ramped up. [UPDATE: Quatraro confirmed on Sunday to MLB.com’s Jackson Stone and other reporters that Lugo is indeed done for the rest of the 2025 campaign.]
- In other Royals pitching news, Quatraro said that Ryan Bergert is dealing with a mild flexor strain, and is expected to be fully healthy by Spring Training. Bergert was placed on the 15-day IL earlier this week with an ominous diagnosis of forearm tightness and he already has a Tommy John surgery in his history, so it counts as good news that his MRI revealed a relatively less-serious issue. The right-hander has a respectable 3.66 ERA over 76 1/3 innings in his rookie season, with Bergert coming to Kansas City from the Padres at the trade deadline.
- The Twins placed Matt Wallner on the 10-day IL yesterday due to a right oblique strain, so the outfielder’s season is all but officially over. This is the second IL stint of the year for Wallner, who missed over six weeks dealing with a hamstring strain early in the season. Wallner will finish with a .202/.311/.464 slash line and 22 homers over 392 plate appearances, which translates to a 114 wRC+. While respectable numbers, more was expected after Wallner posted a 148 wRC+ over 515 PA during the 2023-24 seasons.
Royals To Place Ryan Bergert On Injured List With Forearm Tightness
Royals starter Ryan Bergert is headed to the 15-day injured list, manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (via Anne Rogers of MLB.com). The rookie right-hander reported forearm tightness during his standard bullpen session between starts. It’ll bring an early end to the 25-year-old’s debut season.
Michael Lorenzen, who tossed an inning in relief of Cole Ragans during tonight’s win over Seattle, will start on Friday against the Blue Jays. A series of rotation injuries sealed the Royals’ fate on the outside of the playoff picture. Ragans made his first start in more than three months. Seth Lugo has been out for three weeks with a back issue. An off-field concussion cost Michael Wacha a start. The Royals have dropped to 76-76 and figure to be officially eliminated from postseason contention by the end of the weekend.
As a result, they’ll play things cautiously with Bergert. Kansas City acquired him and Stephen Kolek from the Padres for backup catcher Freddy Fermin in an under-the-radar deadline deal. Bergert allowed one or two runs in each of his first six starts in a K.C. uniform. His final two outings were less impressive. The Guardians tagged him for eight runs in 3 1/3 frames on September 8, and he surrendered three runs in four innings in Philadelphia on Saturday.
It’s not the manner in which Bergert hoped to close the year. He had a promising season overall, turning in a 3.66 ERA while striking out 22.6% of batters faced over 76 1/3 innings. The West Virginia product has yet to reach a year of service time. Assuming he’s healthy, he’ll head into Spring Training with a shot at his first Opening Day roster. K.C. currently has a projected rotation of Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Kris Bubic and Noah Cameron going into next season. Bergert, Kolek, Alec Marsh and Bailey Falter could compete alongside an offseason acquisition or two to be the top depth arm in the event of a Spring Training injury.
Royals Move Bailey Falter To Bullpen
The Royals are going to be reinstating Michael Lorenzen from the 15-day injured list on Saturday, which will bump left-hander Bailey Falter to the bullpen. Manager Matt Quatraro relayed the news to Anne Rogers of MLB.com.
It’s an unfortunate development for Falter, who has been having a good season overall. He logged 113 1/3 innings over 22 starts with the Pirates, allowing 3.73 earned runs per nine. He was traded to the Royals ahead of the deadline but his first two starts with Kansas City did not go well. At Boston on August 4th, he allowed seven earned runs in four innings. His second start, hosting the Nationals on Monday, was a bit better. He only allowed two earned runs but only lasted four innings again.
In the weeks leading up to the deadline, the Royals lost Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic and Lorenzen to the IL. There was some speculation that the club would look to sell at the deadline, perhaps trading Seth Lugo, but they went in the other direction. They extended Lugo, then added Falter, Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek and others at the deadline.
In the past few weeks, they have had a rotation of Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, Bergert and Falter. While Falter’s two starts since the deadline have been subpar, Bergert’s have been quite strong. In each, he allowed two earned runs over 5 2/3 innings.
The decision to move Falter to the ‘pen surely goes beyond the two most recent starts for each guy. Even when things were going good for Falter with the Bucs earlier in the year, he was probably a bit lucky. He struck out just 15.3% of batters faced with the Pirates before the trade. His .236 batting average on balls in play and 73.7% strand rate were both to the fortunate side. His 4.88 FIP and 5.13 SIERA were both more than a run higher than his ERA.
Bergert, on the other hand, has some more encouraging metrics. Between the Padres and Royals this year, he has a 2.87 ERA. There’s also some luck in there and his 11% walk rate is too high but he is punching out 23% of batters faced. Bergert has options and could have been sent down to Triple-A but it seems the Royals want to keep him in the majors as they try to push for a playoff spot.
Falter is out of options, so he can’t be easily sent to the minors. He’ll get kicked to the bullpen for now, likely in a long relief role. He can be retained for next year via arbitration, so the Royals likely want to keep him around for next year’s rotation depth.
Even next year, Falter won’t have a clear path to a rotation job. Lorenzen is an impending free agent but the Royals can pencil in Lugo, Wacha, Ragans and Bubic into four spots, with Cameron, Bergert and Kolek possibilities for the fifth slot. However, pitching injuries are fairly inevitable and the Royals might welcome the possibility of having another arm around. Falter is making $2.222MM this year, his first of four arb seasons as a Super Two player, and can be retained through 2028.
Photo courtesy of Denny Medley, Imagn Images
Royals Trade Freddy Fermin To Padres For Ryan Bergert, Stephen Kolek
The Padres are acquiring catcher Freddy Fermin from the Royals, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Right-handers Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek are headed to Kansas City in exchange for Fermin. The clubs have since announced the deal.
Fermin, 30, heads to San Diego after parts of four seasons with the Royals. After a three-game cup of coffee in 2022, Fermin debuted in a more substantial way the following year when he appeared in 70 games as a complement to Salvador Perez behind the plate. Fermin did quite well for himself in that rookie campaign, as he slashed .281/.321/.461 with a 108 wRC+ with strong grades for his defense behind the plate. It was enough to earn him a larger role with the club, and he began to take more starts behind the dish while Perez increasingly spent his time at DH or first base.
Fermin went on to appear in 111 games last year and put together a solid enough season. While his offense took a step back amid increased playing time, he still managed a wRC+ of 92 and earned strong marks for his blocking and throwing arm behind the plate. Things have taken a turn for the worse this year, however. Fermin has been lackluster at the dish with a .255/.309/.339 (78 wRC+) slash line, and his defensive metrics have taken a step back as well. He’s been worth just 0.4 fWAR in 67 games, but even that somewhat meager performance outpaces the Padres’ current catching tandem. Elias Diaz (67 wRC+) and Martin Maldonado (62 wRC+) have both been even less impressive than Fermin behind the plate this year, and Maldonado in particular has paired that weak offense with some of the worst catcher defense in the entire sport despite his reputation as an elite game caller.
Getting an upgrade on both at and behind the plate who comes with four years of team control was evidently worth paying a significant price for the Padres. In exchange for surrendering Fermin, the Royals have brought in two young starters who have already broken into the big leagues in Bergert and Kolek. Bergert is the prize of the duo, still in his rookie season with a 2.78 ERA in 35 2/3 innings of work spread between seven starts and four relief outings. His peripherals are a bit less encouraging, as his 22.8% strikeout rate is somewhat outweighed by an elevated 12.1% walk rate, but he remains a controllable arm capable of pitching both out of the rotation or in relief as needed.
As for Kolek, the right-hander made his big league debut with the Padres as a reliever last year. He struggled to a 5.21 ERA in 46 2/3 innings of work but posted strong underlying metrics with a 55.9% ground ball rate, a 3.57 FIP, and a 3.41 SIERA. That was enough to convince the Padres to move him into a rotation role for this year, and so far he’s made 14 starts for San Diego with roughly league average results. In 79 2/3 innings of work, Kolek has pitched to a 4.18 ERA with a 4.23 FIP. While he’s struck out just 16.7% of his opponents against a 7.7% walk rate, his 50.6% ground ball rate is still impressive and has allowed him to miss barrels throughout his time in the majors.
With both Bergert and Kolek under team control for the next half-decade, that should give the Royals plenty of flexibility at the back of their rotation both for the short-term (with Kris Bubic, Cole Ragans, and Michael Lorenzen all on the injured list) as well as the long-term, as players like Bubic and Lorenzen reach free agency while Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha get older. While losing Fermin from the club’s catching situation will hurt in the short term, a combination of Perez and Luke Maile is still on the roster while top catching prospects Carter Jensen, Blake Mitchell, and Ramon Ramirez all remain in the minor leagues to help shore up the club’s catching situation in the coming seasons.
Padres Getting Interest In Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert
It wouldn’t be trade deadline season with Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller exploring a variety of creative deals. San Diego is reportedly open to offers on right-hander Dylan Cease while simultaneously showing interest in other short-term veterans to backfill his spot in the rotation. They’re also getting trade inquiries on young righties Stephen Kolek and Ryan Bergert, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Pitching prospects Henry Baez and Braden Nett are also among the names on which other clubs have expressed interest.
Kolek, 28, was a Rule 5 pick back in 2023 and stuck with the Friars in a bullpen role all last year. He’s moved into the rotation this season and given San Diego 13 starts and 73 2/3 innings of 4.28 ERA ball. Kolek doesn’t miss many bats (17.3% strikeout rate, 7.7% swinging-strike rate) but has good command (7.4% walk rate) and keeps the ball on the ground (50.4%). He’s given up plenty of hard contact, but his lack of fly-balls has helped to keep the home runs down.
It’s not the flashiest profile, but if another club buys into Kolek as a roughly league-average starter in his second pre-arbitration season — with four years of club control remaining after the current campaign — there’s some value in that skill set. Controllable starting pitching is always in demand, and while he’s not necessarily an electric young arm with big velocity and strikeout numbers, Kolek has more than held his own in 2025 and still has two minor league option years remaining after this season.
The 25-year-old Bergert is younger and also in the first of three option years. He entered the season ranked among San Diego’s top 15 prospects or so and has elevated his status with a nice showing in Triple-A El Paso and a promising start to his big league career.
In 44 2/3 Triple-A frames, Bergert carries a 4.03 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 45% grounder rate. The Padres gave him his big league debut in late April, and he’s since appeared in a total of 10 games — six of them starts. Bergert has impressed with a 2.84 earned run average, 23.1% strikeout rate and 10.8% walk rate. He’s primarily a fastball/slider pitcher with a show-me changeup and sinker that he’s used less than 8% of the time each.
Trading either Bergert or Kolek could help the Padres reel in a veteran bat in left field or behind the plate — or it could simply bring back multiple prospects who could be redirected to those trade efforts. Bergert, who was optioned earlier this month, has spent enough time in the minors that he still has a full six years of club control beyond the current season. As with Kolek, he’s not necessarily the potential high-end young starter teams covet, but he has the makings of a useful back-end starter who could in theory be plugged right into a new team’s rotation.
As for the 22-year-old Baez and 23-year-old Nett, they’re both pitching in the Double-A rotation and posting strong numbers. Baez doesn’t throw as hard or miss as many bats but has better command with higher ground-ball totals. He’s already on the 40-man roster. Nett has more velocity and a strikeout rate that’s a couple percentage points higher than his teammate but also a walk rate pushing 11%. He’d be Rule 5-eligible this winter and seems likely to be selected to the 40-man before then. Either could be a plausible option for a big league club by next season, so it’s hardly surprising to see teams poking around both pitchers.
Ryan Bergert Expected To Join Padres Rotation
Ryan Bergert is tabbed as the Padres probable starter for tonight’s matchup against the Giants. San Diego will recall the 25-year-old righty from Triple-A El Paso today. Bergert will go opposite Landen Roupp in his first major league start.
Bergert has been up once before. He was promoted in late April and tossed four scoreless innings in four lower-leverage situations. He’ll take on a more significant role this time around. As Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune writes, Bergert seems positioned to get a look as the fifth starter. Michael King has been out for a couple weeks with a shoulder issue. The Padres recalled Kyle Hart to take the first start in what would have been King’s spot. Hart gave up five runs through 4 2/3 innings against Miami and was promptly optioned back to Triple-A.
Dylan Cease, Nick Pivetta, Stephen Kolek and Randy Vásquez occupy the top four rotation spots. The Padres are four days into a stretch of 14 consecutive game days. They’re off next Thursday but will again play 14 straight after that. That doesn’t allow them to comfortably work around the fifth rotation spot with bullpen days. Hart and Matt Waldron have each been optioned within the past couple days. They can’t be recalled for a couple weeks barring an injury. The Padres wouldn’t have sent them down if they were planning on either being their short-term fifth starter regardless.
King has an uncertain return timeline. The Padres said last week that he’s dealing with a pinched nerve. They’ve stressed that there’s nothing structurally wrong but indicated they don’t know how quickly the nerve irritation will subside. Yu Darvish has been out all season with elbow inflammation. He was pulled off a rehab assignment after experiencing soreness last month. According to the MLB.com injury tracker, he has been throwing side sessions but he’ll presumably need at least one or two rehab starts once he’s ready to resume game action.
Bergert, a sixth-round pick out of West Virginia in 2021, ranked as San Diego’s #21 prospect at Baseball America over the winter. BA credited him with three average to slightly above-average pitches and decent control. He’s working mostly behind a 94 MPH fastball and mid-80s slider in Triple-A. He may need to lean a little more heavily on his changeup to handle left-handed hitters at the MLB level.
The approach has worked well enough for him in El Paso. Bergert has posted a 3.75 ERA with a 24% strikeout rate over nine starts. He’s unlikely to work through a lineup three times very often, however. Bergert hasn’t topped five innings in any start this year. He’s mostly pitching 3-4 inning stints. Bergert tossed four scoreless with four strikeouts during his most recent appearance last Wednesday.
Padres Option Kyle Hart
1:25pm: The Padres have now officially announced that they have optioned Hart and recalled Bergert.
10:25am: Per AJ Cassavell of MLB.com, the club will indeed go with a four-man rotation for a while. Bergert is expected to be recalled as the corresponding move. He will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game. Since he’s been acting as a starter in Triple-A, he will presumably fill a long relief role with the big league club.
10:10am: The Padres have optioned left-hander Kyle Hart to Triple-A El Paso, according to the club’s transactions tracker at MLB.com. No corresponding move is listed but they will presumably bring up another pitcher before tonight’s game.
The club took a flier on Hart this winter, signing him to a one-year deal with a $1.5MM guarantee. That was a bet on his performance in Korea last year. His previous track record in affiliated ball wasn’t great but he had good results with the KBO’s NC Dinos in 2024. He logged 157 innings over 26 starts with a 2.69 earned run average, 28.8% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate and 46% ground ball rate. It’s never a guarantee that a pitcher can transfer those kinds of results to North American ball, but the Friars had rotation needs and a tight budget, so it was an understandable bet to make.
At the start of camp, the Padres had four rotation spots spoken for by Dylan Cease, Michael King, Yu Darvish and Nick Pivetta. Hart was part of a competition for the fifth spot alongside Randy Vásquez, Matt Waldron and Stephen Kolek. In the spring, Darvish landed on the IL to start the season due to elbow inflammation, opening a second spot. The competition was also thinned out when Waldron suffered an oblique strain.
That led to Vásquez and Hart both securing rotation spots to open the season. Hart has made five starts thus far, tossing 21 innings with 14 earned runs, leading to an ERA of 6.00. His 6.7% walk rate is quite good but his 17.8% strikeout rate and 33.3% ground ball rate are both subpar marks.
Vásquez has been better at preventing runs but with less impressive stuff under the hood. He has a 3.97 ERA through his five starts but with an 8.9% strikeout rate and 16.8% walk rate. He hasn’t allowed a home run yet, despite a subpar 39.2% ground ball rate, perhaps suggesting he’s walking a tightrope. His 6.94 SIERA certainly doesn’t expect him to maintain his current run prevention.
Hart, on the other hand, has allowed six home runs already. SIERA, which expects such things to normalize over time, gives Hart a 4.57 so far this year. Regardless, these are small samples and Hart hasn’t been overpowering. The Padres have decided to send him to El Paso, at least for a few starts. Optional assignments for pitchers come with a 15-day minimum, so Hart won’t be able to come back until the club’s series against the Rockies May 9th to 11th.
It’s possible the decision was motivated by the schedule. The Padres were off yesterday and then have further off-days on Monday and Thursday next week. Perhaps they will go with a four-man rotation for a while. They will play six straight from May 2nd to 7th, which will be before Hart can come back. They could use a spot start or a bullpen game to get through that stretch and then bring Hart back up, if they so choose.
It’s also possible that the club could explore Hart as a reliever. Though his results have been uneven so far, lefties are slashing just .100/.100/.100 against him in the early going. Righties, on the other hand, have a monster .333/.386/.698 line. His changeup, a pitch usually used to neutralize hitters with the platoon advantage, has allowed a .533 batting average. Perhaps transitioning to a lefty specialist role would be a good move, though these are tiny samples and this is entirely speculative.
It’s also possible the Padres want to get a look at Kolek. He has a 6.38 ERA through five starts for El Paso but it’s possible to look beyond that and see encouraging signs elsewhere. The Chihuahuas play in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, which always requires a grain of salt. Kolek has a .358 batting average on balls in play and 62.9% strand rate, which are both to the unlucky side. His 18% strikeout rate isn’t great but he has kept walks down to a tiny 3.6% level while getting grounders on 56.6% of balls in play. Ryan Bergert is another option on the 40-man roster. He has a 5.16 ERA at El Paso but with a 23.5% strikeout rate and 9.8% walk rate.
More information on the club’s plans will likely be forthcoming soon. Time will tell if this is just a brief reset for Hart during a light portion of the club’s schedule or a more meaningful pivot. At least for the next few days, they will likely operate with a longer bullpen with two off-days in the next week.
Photo courtesy of David Frerker, Imagn Images