MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Carlos Carrasco Questionable For Opening Day
Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco has been slowed by inflammation in his right elbow (and, earlier, a hip flexor strain) this spring. And while an MRI confirmed that Carrasco is not dealing with any structural damage, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti told reporters today that it could be a “stretch” for Carrasco to be ready for Opening Day (Twitter thread via Mandy Bell of MLB.com). Carrasco will be held back from throwing for a few more days.
It’s mixed news for Indians fans, as nothing from Antonetti’s comments suggested that Carrasco is expected to require a significant absence. But the Cleveland organization already has Mike Clevinger on the shelf as he recovers from surgery to repair a partial meniscus tear, and this winter’s slate of rule changes upped the minimum IL stint for pitchers from 10 days back to 15 days. If Carrasco is indeed placed on the injured list, that stint can still be backdated up to three days, but he’d be looking at missing at least the first dozen days of the 2020 campaign.
With Clevinger and Carrasco perhaps both sitting on the IL to begin the season, the Indians will likely give 2019 breakout righty Shane Bieber the Opening Day nod. He’d be followed by a quartet of relatively inexperienced arms: Aaron Civale, Zach Plesac, Adam Plutko and Logan Allen. (Civale has been bothered by a groin issue himself, though Antonetti indicated today that he’s expected to be ready for the opener.)
The Indians’ rotation is in somewhat of a transitional state — at least as pertains to the final couple of slots. Each of Bieber (controlled through 2024), Clevinger (controlled through 2022) and Carrasco (signed through 2023) should be locks for the next few years, health permitting. However, two of Civale, Plesac, Allen, Plutko and prospects Triston McKenzie and Scott Moss will likely be counted on to eventually seize permanent starting jobs. Viewed through that lens, even brief absences for the club’s top arms early in the season could serve as a continued audition for many arms the organization hopes will emerge as core pieces.
Coronavirus Response Will Require MLB Schedule Changes
1:30pm: The Athletics and Giants have issued statements regarding the coronavirus. An exhibition game between the two that was scheduled to take place at Oracle Park on March 24 has been canceled, the Giants announced. The two clubs are looking into alternate settings.
Meanwhile, the A’s, who are scheduled to open the season at home with a four-game series against the Twins, announced that they will “adhere to any government directives and work with Major League Baseball on all alternative arrangements.” It seems overwhelmingly likely that the series will be played in a different setting than expected — be it a new location or an empty stadium.
12:25pm: As the coronavirus continues to sweep across the globe, it is increasingly apparent that staging Major League Baseball games in the manner anticipated will simply not occur. Already today we have seen several major developments in the response to the deadly disease.
This story is far bigger than sports. But sports have an essential role to play, both in forestalling transmissions that can occur in large gatherings and in signaling the need for community-level precautions.
Today, the World Health Organization formally designated the coronavirus a pandemic. WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that nations “can turn the tide,” but warned not only of “the alarming levels of spread and severity” but also “the alarming levels of inaction” around the globe.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, addressed the matter in relation to basketball. The Ivy League has canceled its conference tournament but others remain on schedule along with the NCAA tourney. And while the NBA has begun preparing for disruption, it hasn’t yet acted.
Fauci says the outbreak is “going to get worse” and left no doubt he sees a need to curtail large-scale gatherings, at minimum in areas in which community spread has been detected. “We would recommend that there not be large crowds,” he said. “If that means not having any people in the audience when the NBA plays, so be it.”
American municipalities are increasingly acting upon the evident need to slow the spread of the coronavirus to limit the strain on health systems to the extent possible. Some of those decisions could directly force MLB to change its plans. To this point the league has instituted various minor changes to regular Spring Training rules — media accessibility, fan interaction, non-essential personnel being kept from traveling or appearing in the clubhouse — but has not limited Spring Training contests or changed its schedule for the upcoming regular season.
The league has indicated an awareness of the gravity of the situation and acknowledged the “fluidity” inherent to it. As the dangers become all the more evident, one might hope that the urgency of the matter will lead the league to taking a proactive, leadership position.
With Seattle serving as one epicenter of the outbreak in the United States, it is now all but certain that the Mariners won’t play there as planned to begin the season. The team now expects its first two home series to be prohibited by decree of the governor, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports on Twitter.
It’s quite likely this is the tip of the iceberg, in Seattle and elsewhere. We’ve seen concepts floated of moving games scheduled for Seattle to Arizona, but that’s premised on the highly questionable premise that it’ll be safe to stage such massive gatherings anywhere within the next several weeks.
Other municipalities are also moving in a similar direction, with more sure to follow as evidence of the virus’s spread increases. San Francisco has banned gatherings of over one thousand people for at least the next two weeks, Connor Letourneau of the San Francisco Chronicle tweets. Washington, DC has recommended cancellations of gatherings of one thousand or more people. That was the same guidance issued yesterday by San Francisco; the city boosted it to an outright prohibition after the NBA’s Warriors held a home game.
Whatever the annoyances or disappointments, they’re designed to avoid the awful situations we’ve already seen unfold in China, Italy, and other places. Experts have explained the critical importance of “social distancing” measures to prevent the rapid spread of the disease, which is far more deadly and damaging when overburdened health systems struggle to provide adequate treatment.
Michael Conforto Diagnosed With Oblique Strain
MARCH 11: The injury is of the least-severe, Grade 1 variety, DiComo tweets. Conforto says he still does not know what kind of timeline he’ll be on as he works back.
MARCH 10: Conforto has been diagnosed with a strained right oblique, Van Wagenen announced to reporters (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). He’ll be reassessed next week. Asked whether Conforto would be ready for Opening Day, Van Wagenen only stated that it’s too early to tell. It’s worth noting, however, that even Grade 1 oblique strains can sideline a player for upwards of a month.
MARCH 9: Mets outfielder Michael Conforto is heading in for an examination after suffering an injury to his side, GM Brodie Van Wagenen told reporters including Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). The injury occurred on a recent play in the outfield.
Conforto has already undergone an MRI, though it’s not clear just what the scan showed. Between the imaging and his own discomfort, it seems, there was sufficient cause for an in-person look from team physician Dr. David Altchek.
At this point, there’s not much to do but hope for a good outcome. Conforto has previously undergone significant work on his shoulder, but had made a full recovery. Whether the present injury interacts with the old one in any way is not evident at this time.
Conforto, 27, is a key cog of the Mets lineup. He has been a steady producer at the plate ever since arriving in the majors, with a .253/.353/.481 career batting line. It’d obviously hurt quite a bit to lose Conforto, even for a relatively brief stretch.
It does bear noting that the Mets have some cause for optimism from another corner outfielder. The rehabbing Yoenis Cespedes is showing some signs of regaining his typically lofty form, Newsday’s David Lennon writes, though his timeline remains unknown and it remains to be seen how we’ll he’ll move on his surgically repaired ankles.
Mets Announce Record Sophomore Salary With Pete Alonso
A record-breaking debut campaign has earned Mets first baseman Pete Alonso a record-breaking salary for his sophomore season. At least, that’s how the team has framed the matter, as Tim Healey of Newsday reports on Twitter.
Alonso will earn $652,521 for the 2020 season — the highest ever for a player coming off his rookie season (excluding those who’ve signed multi-year deals). While it’s unclear how the team arrived at that precise figure — they wisely skipped on a chance to make a hokey reference to Alonso’s rookie-high 53 long balls — it has unquestionably left the young star feeling happy. He says he was “shocked and thrilled” with the offer.
Given his exuberance over the salary terms, Alonso obviously signed onto his contract with the Mets — as did all of the team’s other pre-arbitration players. That’s rather a different situation from last winter, when the club renewed Edwin Diaz at just over $607K. (That sum felt particularly low given that Diaz had only just missed out on qualifying for arbitration as a Super Two, which would’ve drastically increased his total pre-free agency earning power.)
The Mets have kept the good vibes going with Alonso ever since they decided to carry him on the Opening Day roster in 2019 — thus foregoing a chance to extend their control rights by waiting a few weeks to promote him. That decision wasn’t quite as difficult with respect to the 24-year-old first baseman as it would’ve been for a much younger player, but it surely built up some goodwill.
It’s tantalizing to wonder whether and when the Mets will explore a long-term deal with Alonso, who has been a star on and off the field with his big bat and gregarious personality. Just how much impact today’s salary news has on broader talks remains to be seen.
One may surmise that other teams around the game are less than thrilled with the Mets’ decision not only to grant this salary but to broadcast it. Pre-arbitration salaries continue to be an area of great disparity around the game. We’ve seen some nine-figure deals in the past for players on the cusp of arbitration. But players like Juan Soto and Jack Flaherty have recently been renewed for lower amounts than Alonso will receive despite excellent performance track records and greater MLB service time. As I explained in a recent video, this is a situation that really ought to be addressed in some form in the next collective bargaining agreement.
MLB Options Explained
What does it mean when an MLB player is “out of options?” What other factors create spring training roster pressure? MLBTR’s Jeff Todd breaks it down in today’s video. To view our full list of out of options players on 40-man rosters, click here.
Latest On Stanton, Paxton Progress
The Yankees have missed a few key players early in camp, but two were back on the field today, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports (links to Twitter). Both Giancarlo Stanton and James Paxton are participating in some baseball activities this morning.
Stanton, who has been nursing a calf injury, was able to take live batting practice today. Stepping in against a big-league hurler represents a notable step that seems to suggest there has been real progress.
The Yanks have already ruled Stanton out for Opening Day, but the hope has remained that he’ll be ready before the month of April is out. Today’s development buttresses that belief.
As for Paxton, he was throwing with teammates this morning. That’s a notable milestone — indeed, it’s the first time he has tossed a ball since undergoing a back procedure in mid-December.
It’s good to see Paxton back to baseball activities, but he still obviously has a ways to go. At this point, the southpaw says he views a mid-May return to the majors as a best-case outcome.
8 Out-Of-Options Players To Keep An Eye On
MLBTR released its annual compilation of out-of-options players just yesterday. Many of those listed have already sewn up active roster spots. But there are quite a few on the bubble. Here are eight of the most interesting out-of-options players to watch … particularly for teams that’ll be eyeing the waiver wire for hidden gems later this month:
Athletics: Jorge Mateo (2B/SS), Franklin Barreto (2B/SS), Tony Kemp (2B/OF)
We ran through this trio earlier in Spring Training, but there’s still no real clarity on who’s going to come away from this bunch with the Athletics’ starting job at second base — or even if it will be any of them. (Sheldon Neuse is also in the mix, although he has minor league options remaining.) Both Mateo and Barreto are former Top 100 prospects acquired by Oakland in high profile trades. Mateo came in the deal that sent Sonny Gray to the Yankees, while Barreto was acquired as a teenager in the ill-fated Josh Donlaldson swap with the Blue Jays. Mateo is an 80-grade runner and a natural shortstop who could shift to a utility role if he doesn’t win the second base gig. Barreto has had more success at the plate in the upper minors. Kemp, acquired from the Cubs in a small trade earlier in the winter, is the longest shot to win the job but could nab a bench spot, as he’s also capable of covering the outfield and the A’s are light on lefty bats.
Barreto entered Spring Training as the favorite, and he’s been the most impressive at the plate in a small sample of Cactus League games so far. The Royals and Tigers have reportedly shown some trade interest in Mateo.
Blue Jays: Anthony Alford (OF)
Toronto has room to carry Alford on the Opening Day roster, but the combination of Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Randal Grichuk, Teoscar Hernandez and Derek Fisher could all have bigger roles rotating between the outfield and designated hitter slots.
Alford, a former two-sport star and top prospect, has only logged 59 MLB plate appearances despite reaching the Majors in each of the past three seasons. That he’s out of options puts the Jays in a tough spot, as he can’t be sent to Triple-A for regular work but also probably won’t find everyday at-bats in the 2020 outfield — barring injuries to the four names ahead of him.
Cardinals: Rangel Ravelo (1B/OF)
With Paul Goldschmidt entrenched at first base, Ravelo has no path to his primary position. The Cards gave Ravelo his first look at third base since 2012 while he was in Triple-A this past season and also gave him some work in the outfield corners. The 27-year-old (28 in April) is looking at a spot as a right-handed bench bat on a heavily right-handed team that doesn’t have an easy path to regular at-bats. Over the past three seasons, he’s batted .307/.386/.480 in Triple-A — good for a 123 wRC+. Ravelo could be the Cardinals’ next version of Jose Martinez — a lefty-mashing first baseman/outfielder off the bench — but between Tyler O’Neill, Lane Thomas and Austin Dean, they’re not exactly short on right-handed bats to fill that role.
Reds: Scott Schebler (OF)
Schebler was a 30-homer bat for the Reds two years ago but struggled to get on base that year, hitting .233/.307/.484 on the whole. His power dipped in ’18 as his OBP rose, but he flopped in the big leagues and in Triple-A last year while battling oblique injuries. With Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama, Nick Senzel, Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino all likely ahead of Schebler on the depth chart now, his roster spot seems to be on shaky ground — though Aquino’s rough spring does leave room to claim a roster spot. Schebler will play the 2020 season at 29 years of age, and he’s controlled another four years via arbitration.
Rockies: Jeff Hoffman (RHP)
Hoffman was a top-10 draft pick, a top-50 MLB prospect and the centerpiece of the trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki from Denver to Toronto back in 2015. A half decade later, however, he’s toting a career 6.11 ERA and 5.67 FIP through more than 200 big league innings. Hoffman hasn’t even found success in the upper minors, but his pedigree, above-average fastball velocity (93.7 mph average in ’19), and excellent fastball spin (89th percentile) could all prompt another team to try its hand at coaxing some of that potential out of him. Hoffman certainly wouldn’t be the first pitcher to struggle at Coors Field only to find success following a change of scenery.
The Rockies aren’t exactly dealing with an arms surplus themselves and may be loath to let go of Hoffman for a minimal return. But owner Dick Monfort seems intent on making an attempt to contend in 2020, and Hoffman hasn’t performed well this spring. It’s feasible that he could be on the outside looking in.
White Sox: Carson Fulmer (RHP)
Once one of the most touted college arms in the country, Fulmer was the topic of great debate in the 2015 draft, when he went eighth overall to the White Sox. Fulmer led Vanderbilt’s rotation to the College World Series, but many scouting reports on him pegged him as a surefire reliever. The ChiSox were committed to him as a starter up until 2018, but he finally moved to the ‘pen that season and pitched exclusively in short stints in 2019. Fulmer hasn’t had success in the Majors or in the upper minors, but he showed elite spin on his four-seamer and breaking ball in 2019 while posting career-bests in average velocity (93.7 mph) and swinging-strike rate (10.8 percent).
The White Sox have, at most, two spots available in their bullpen this spring. Fulmer has turned in a strong effort — two runs on seven hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings — but manager Rick Renteria hasn’t labeled him any sort of favorite at this point (link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).
MLBTR Poll: When Will Yasiel Puig Sign?
The beginning of Major League Baseball’s regular season is just over two weeks away, yet high-profile outfielder Yasiel Puig still doesn’t have a job. The onetime All-Star and former Dodger, Red and Indian is the lone straggler from MLBTR’s offseason-opening ranking of the sport’s top 50 free agents. At that point, we forecast a one-year, $8MM contract for Puig, who reportedly turned down a $10MM guarantee from an unknown team sometime over the winter. Otherwise, reported interest in the polarizing Puig has been scarce.
Unfortunately for Puig, he didn’t reach free free agency at the ideal juncture. For one, there were similarly valuable or better corner outfielders available (Nick Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, Corey Dickerson and Kole Calhoun come to mind). And though Puig was a star at times earlier in his career in Los Angeles, he combined for a mediocre 3.0 fWAR from 2018-19. Last season was especially middling for Puig, who slashed .267/.327/.458 in 611 plate appearances. While Puig did hit 24 home runs and steal 19 bases, his overall offensive output amounted to a 101 wRC+, which basically means he was a league-average performer with the bat.
As unspectacular as his numbers may have been last year, there’s certainly still an argument that Puig would be worth the trouble for someone. Earlier this week, Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs made a compelling case for the Rangers to sign him on the heels of the fractured jaw fellow outfielder Willie Calhoun suffered Sunday. They’re one potential fit. But there are more teams that may be able to benefit from Puig’s presence.
Several rebuilding or non-contending clubs (the Giants, Rockies, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers and Mariners make for a half-dozen examples) are set to bring uninspiring-looking outfields to the table. Puig wouldn’t turn any of them into winners, but a few decent months could allow one of those teams to get something back for him at the July trade deadline. Even prospective contenders like the Yankees and Athletics may have needs in the grass at the moment, depending on how certain injury situations shake out. Meanwhile, the Indians – with whom Puig finished 2019 – don’t exactly boast a veritable Murderers’ Row out there.
Ultimately, it may take a serious injury in either the spring or near the start of the regular season for Puig to land somewhere in the next few weeks. But it’s odd that he remains available now – especially considering he doesn’t have a qualifying offer hanging over his head, as the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel did a year ago.
Puig has now been on the market for four-plus months. How much longer do you expect him to stay there?
(Poll link for app users)
When will Puig sign?
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May or later 44% (5,569)
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April 31% (3,893)
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March 25% (3,117)
Total votes: 12,579
Latest On Byron Buxton
Twins center fielder Byron Buxton is still on the mend from the left shoulder surgery he underwent last September, but he’s making progress. Buxton faced live pitching Tuesday for the first time since August, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune was among those to report.
Twins hitting coach Rudy Hernandez took an optimistic tone after Buxton’s session at the plate, saying the 26-year-old “looked good” and is “going in the right way.”
While the Twins and Buxton are hopeful that he’ll be ready by Opening Day on March 26, neither side is setting a date for his season debut. Considering Buxton’s importance to the club, that’s understandable. After all, despite the time he missed, the former No. 2 overall pick did help the reigning American League Central champion Twins to one of the finest regular seasons in their history last year. The defensively brilliant Buxton slashed .262/.314/.513 (111 wRC+) with 10 home runs, 14 stolen bases and 2.7 fWAR over just 87 games and 295 plate appearances.
For most of the games Buxton sat out last season, the Twins turned to right fielder Max Kepler in center. That figures to be the plan again at the start of this season if Buxton isn’t healthy enough to take the field on Opening Day. The Twins also have LaMonte Wade Jr. and Jake Cave as center field-capable players, while utilityman Marwin Gonzalez could hold down right if Kepler has to fill in for Buxton.
[RELATED – Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins]