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Quick Hits: Olney’s Latest, Free Agent Market, Diamondbacks

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It’s been another slow winter for baseball’s veteran free agents, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney. Only six free agents have secured deals with more than two years fully guaranteed, none of whom have been over the age of 32, and there are over 200 unsigned free agents still seeking employment for the 2019 season. ESPN obtained a memo written by player agent Jeff Berry outlining some ideas on how to improve the troubling conditions that have developed in this labor market. Berry writes, “As advocates, our job is to fight for and protect player rights, and when necessary, try and help create solutions — not pointing fingers of blame and hoping things get better. And I wholeheartedly believe there are viable solutions to the core labor issues facing the game that can be remedied to the benefit of players, clubs and fans.” Take a look at the top remaining free agents available here, or track the market as a whole with MLBTR’s free agent tracker. For now, let’s take a look at a few of the specifics covered in Olney’s article, as well as some news from around the (slow-moving) winter market…

  • Refining or reforming current practices regarding service time manipulation and player arbitration are two of the most-often disputed topics, per Olney, but there are other issues at hand as well, including how some people within the industry are unhappy about the way teams use the disabled list. This issue also encompasses the promotion/demotion process termed “portfolio management,” or the process wherein teams shuffle their rosters for particular series matchups throughout the season. While these in-season roster moves make sense from a strategic baseball standpoint, players lose money as a result, often to no fault of their own. For instance, a reliever whose option has already been used in a season might be vulnerable to demotion if unavailable due to overuse (say, if he pitched in three consecutive days). Even if said player is brought back to the big leagues after a couple of days, he still loses a significant amount of major league pay during that span. Thus, such a player loses money – not despite performing effectively – but because he performed effectively. Obviously, given the complexity of even the single above circumstance, there is no shortage of issues for the players’ union to focus their attentions in advance of December 1, 2021 – the date the current CBA expires. 
  • Turning to rumblings about player movement, it’s unlikely the Arizona Diamondbacks bring A.J. Pollock back to the desert even if his free agency drags on longer than expected. Given the flexibility of their roster, however, the Dbacks have options to replace him, writes the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan. The in-house alternatives may not be enough to call off the rebuild, but the number of roster iterations available gives GM Mike Hazen the time to make judicious decisions on the trade market. For example, Ketel Marte could move to center, with his spot at the keystone, then, filled by one of the attainable free agent second baseman on the market (DJ LeMahieu, Brian Dozier, Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie). Alternatively, Eduardo Escobar could fill Marte’s spot at second should the Diamondbacks acquire a new third baseman (Jake Lamb would be expected to handle first, as is probably the case regardless). Given the absolute dearth of starting options available in free agency, if Marte stays at second, a center field replacement would likely come via trade. The Diamondbacks are unlikely to surrender much in the way of prospects at this stage of their rebuild, which makes finding a trade partner tricky, though not impossible. Their best bet might be to target a young veteran who may still have some upside. Specifically, Michael A. Taylor of the Nationals would be an intriguing player to see given 500 at bats, as might Keon Broxton of the Brewers. 

MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest Leaderboard Now Available

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Were you one of the 6,845 people who entered in MLBTR’s Free Agent Prediction Contest back in November?  If so, you’ll want to check out our new contest leaderboard.  With 21 of the top 50 free agents signed, 11 people are tied with a .286 batting average (six correct predictions).  Of those, Kris Freel currently wears the crown with correct picks on Nathan Eovaldi, J.A. Happ, Josh Donaldson, Jeurys Familia, Andrew Miller, and Joe Kelly.  MLBTR writer Ty Bradley is one of about 100 people with five correct, leading our website staff.

To find out how you’re doing, simply type your name into the search box.  You can also click anyone’s name to see the picks they made, and try the “Staff Only” button to see how the seven participating MLBTR writers are doing.

Quick Hits: Reds, Holland, Mariners, Royals

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Free agent left-hander Derek Holland has been in contact with the Reds, tweets MLB Network’s J.P. Morosi. After a resurgent season with the Giants, which came after signing a minor league contract late last offseason, Holland appears poised to reel in a far more valuable big league contract for the 2019 season. At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR pegged him to receive a two-year contract worth $15MM. The 32-year-old Holland has thus far been tied to the Rangers as a potential suitor; he previously played in parts of eight seasons with Texas after debuting with the club in 2009. The Reds, meanwhile, have made it clear that they intend to play more competitive baseball in the coming season, with much of that improvement tied to the starting rotation. Having already acquired Tanner Roark and Alex Wood, the Reds would still like to add another arm to join the two newcomers, budding star Luis Castillo, Anthony DeSclafani, and Tyler Mahle. Though the Reds have been linked to big names such as Dallas Keuchel and Corey Kluber, those avenues appear unlikely; Sonny Gray remains a potential trade target for Cincinnati, and Holland’s name is now being thrown in the hat as a more affordable option to fill out the team’s starting staff.

Some other notes from around the major leagues…

  • Though the Mariners have been perhaps the offseason’s busiest club to date, the team likely has more moves yet to come. Greg Johns of MLB.com lists a number of trade candidates that general manager Jerry Dipoto may still move. Though it hasn’t yet been a month since Edwin Encarnacion was traded from Cleveland to Seattle, Dipoto seems intent on finding a trade partner for the veteran slugger. With Nelson Cruz now off the market, a team like the Rays, who at a time appeared to be in position to acquire Encarnacion, could move to fill their DH spot with a right-handed impact bat. Johns also names veteran right-hander Mike Leake, as well as infielders Dee Gordon and Kyle Seager, as other Mariners on the block. However, Gordon and Seager each seem less likely to find suitors, given that both turned in underwhelming 2018 seasons and are still owed significant dollar values over multiple years. As for Leake, many teams would certainly be interested in adding a durable, consistent (if unspectacular) innings-eater like Leake, who has now pitched upwards of 175 innings in each of the last seven seasons.
  • In other news out of Seattle, TJ Cotterill of The News Tribune writes that the Mariners have leveled their own allegations against former employee Lorena Martin, who in November accused team leadership of racism and gender discrimination. In addition to stating that Martin’s allegations are false, the Mariners claim that they received multiple complaints that Martin “created a hostile work environment” and that she “misrepresented herself as a medical doctor.” According to Cotterill, the Mariners have received reports that Martin implemented her own practices for treating injured players in place of doctors’ orders. In their defense of Martin’s lawsuit against the Mariners, the team is seeking to void the remainder of Martin’s contract, as well as damages for her accusations on social media that team officials made discriminatory remarks about Latino players. An investigation into Martin’s accusations was launched by MLB, which has yet to make public its findings.
  • Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com offers his outlook on the Royals’ remaining plans for the offseason, suggesting first and foremost that the team would like to add a pair of inexpensive free-agent relievers before Spring Training. While they won’t be targeting any of the marquee bullpen arms that have yet to sign, Flanagan proposes that, due to limited payroll flexibility, general manager Dayton Moore will take a more patient approach to the market, pursuing bargain veterans whose demands have lowered late in the offseason. The bullpen, of course, is a glaring need for the team that finished with baseball’s second-worst record in 2018. And while the Royals have yet to make any significant additions in that area, Flanagan also notes that the club expects to have a surplus of candidates vying for a rotation spot, and those who fail to make the cut will likely shift to a bullpen role. This depth could make for some natural improvement, even if the Royals cannot invest big money in improving the unit.

Free Agent Faceoff: Robertson Vs. Britton Vs. Ottavino

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Seven-time All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel entered the winter as the undisputed No. 1 reliever available in free agency, but it’s not as easy to identify the second-best option on the open market. When the offseason commenced, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams and Jeff Todd lumped four relievers close together behind Kimbrel in terms of projected earning power. They forecast that Jeurys Familia, David Robertson and Zach Britton would each earn three-year, $33MM contracts, while Adam Ottavino would come in a bit behind at three years and $30MM. Familia’s now off the board, having rejoined the Mets on a three-year, $30MM guarantee, while fellow bullpen arms Andrew Miller, Joe Kelly and Joakim Soria have also received lucrative contracts.

With Familia, Miller, Kelly and Soria no longer in the free-agent mix, it’s clear that Robertson, Britton and Ottavino are the most desirable non-Kimbrel relievers without teams. There has been widespread interest in all three over the past couple months, with some of the same clubs in contention for multiple members of the group. But who’s the most appealing hurler among the trio?

Perhaps the answer is the right-handed Robertson, who has put together nine straight highly productive seasons of 60-plus innings. Undoubtedly one of the most durable and effective relievers in recent memory, the longtime Yankee is coming off a season in which he logged a 3.23 ERA/2.97 FIP with 11.76 K/9, 3.36 BB/9 and a 45.3 percent groundball rate across a career-best 69 2/3 innings. Never one to rely on high-90s velocity, Robertson continued to confound hitters with his breaking stuff, as FanGraphs rated his curve as the most valuable pitch of its kind among 2018 relievers. Batters posted a dreadful .196 weighted on-base average against that pitch and an even worse .145 mark when he threw his slider, according to Statcast.

If there’s one concern with Robertson, it’s his age. He’s set to turn 34 in April, meaning it’s fair to wonder whether he’ll continue to thrive over the course of a multiyear deal. Britton, meanwhile, is three years younger, having turned 31 on Dec. 22. Aside from Kimbrel, Britton likely had the best peak of anyone in this winter’s class of free-agent relievers. The left-hander amassed anywhere from 65 2/3 innings to 76 1/3 in each season as the Orioles’ closer between 2014-16, a three-year span in which he converted 120 of 128 save opportunities, led relievers in groundball rate (77.9 percent), placed second in ERA (1.38) and recorded 9.26 K/9 against 2.37 BB/9.

Britton was close to infallible during his heyday, but he fell off between 2017-18, when forearm, knee and Achilles injuries limited him to 78 innings. Britton still managed a terrific 3.00 ERA and a fantastic 72.8 percent grounder rate in that period, which he spent with the O’s and Yankees. His K/9 (7.27) and BB/9 (4.5) each went in the wrong direction, though, and his power sinker wasn’t as imposing.

Unlike Robertson and Britton, Ottavino brings little game-ending experience to the table, evidenced by his 17 career saves. He’s also a onetime Tommy John surgery patient and a 33-year-old whose career with the Cardinals and Rockies hasn’t been all that consistent. The righty has put together a handful of outstanding seasons and a few poor campaigns, though it seems he found another gear in 2018. After a woeful 2017 in Colorado, Ottavino spent last offseason working to improve his command in his native New York City, as former FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik detailed in May, and the results were astounding.

Using primarily sliders and sinkers, Ottavino pitched to a 2.43 ERA/2.74 FIP with 12.98 K/9 and 4.17 BB/9 across a personal-best 77 2/3 frames last season. In the process, his first-pitch strike rate increased nearly 14 percent from 2017 and his out-of-zone swing rate climbed by almost 5 percent. Further, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com pointed out in October, Ottavino was a soft-contact wiz in 2018, trailing only all-world relievers Edwin Diaz and Blake Treinen in xwOBA against (.229; Robertson’s was .276, while Britton checked in at .311).

Although it’s obvious that Ottavino’s career has been less impressive than those of Robertson and Britton, it’s possible he’s the best of the three right now. Cases could be made for both Robertson and Britton, however, and it’ll be interesting to see how much guaranteed money these three high-end relievers ultimately receive in the coming weeks. Which one would you sign?

(poll link for app users)

Quick Hits: LeMahieu, Rangers, O’s, Senzel, Calhoun

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While DJ LeMahieu played his high school ball in Michigan, a return to his old stomping grounds in the form of a Tigers contract “isn’t likely,” MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes.  Detroit figures to wait until closer to Spring Training to land a second baseman, so LeMahieu will likely be off the market by then, plus his desire for a multi-year deal probably also doesn’t fit with the Tigers’ plan to acquire a short-term bridge to prospect Dawel Lugo.  The Nationals, Dodgers, and Athletics have all been linked to LeMahieu at various points this offseason, though it’s probably safe to count Oakland out of the running after the team’s acquisition of Jurickson Profar.  In general, Beck feels the Tigers could wait until later in the offseason to address several needs, looking for low-cost veterans or potential bargains to fill holes in the rotation, bullpen, catcher, or on the bench.  The Tigers may also have to hold off on dealing Nick Castellanos until after Bryce Harper signs with a new team, in order to take stock of a newly-shuffled outfield market.

Some more from around baseball…

  • Is Adam Jones a fit for the Rangers?  MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan believes so, opining that Jones’ right-handed bat would help balance out the team’s heavily left-handed outfield mix, plus Jones could provide clubhouse leadership to an increasingly young team.  There’s certainly an argument to be made for such a signing, or at least for a player of a similar mold, should Jones himself be a bit too expensive for the Rangers’ liking or if he only wants to play for a team aiming to contend in 2019.
  • Speaking of signing veterans, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski argues that the Orioles should see what they have in their young pitchers rather than acquiring an experienced innings-eater for the rotation.  Barring a trade, Baltimore will have Andrew Cashner, Dylan Bundy, and Alex Cobb as its top three starters, which perhaps provides enough of a veteran base to allow the O’s to audition any number of young arms through the other two rotation spots.
  • Nick Senzel is on pace to make his Major League debut sometime in 2019, though without a clear position to play in the Reds’ lineup, the team could deploy Senzel as a multi-positional threat, the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale writes.  Senzel was drafted as a third baseman and has spent much of his minor league career at the hot corner, though he saw more time at second base last season at Triple-A and even started one game at shortstop.  The Reds also intended to use Senzel as a corner outfielder in Arizona Fall League play, though he was sidelined after surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow.  The biggest priority for the Reds and Senzel is simply to make sure that the top prospect is healthy in the wake of an injury-shortened 2018 season, and to get him everyday at-bats no matter what position he fills around the diamond.  Senzel could even be considered for some time in center field, which is the only open position the Reds have at the moment.
  • Trading Kole Calhoun would help free up some payroll space for the Angels to go after pitching, though MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger isn’t sure how much the Halos could really save in such a deal.  Calhoun is owed $11.5MM next season, counting both salary and a buyout of his $14MM club option for 2020, and it seems like the team would have to eat at least some of that given that Calhoun is coming off a replacement-level season.  Los Angeles could also conceivably swap Calhoun for another player with a contract his team would like to unload, if such a fit could be found.  Of course, the Angels are hoping for a rebound year from Calhoun and have him penciled in as their everyday right fielder, so dealing him would create another roster hole to be filled.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/30/18

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Rounding up some minor moves from around baseball…

  • The White Sox have signed right-hander Donn Roach to a minor league deal, as per the Mariners Minors Twitter account.  Roach posted a 5.77 ERA over 39 innings with the Padres, Cubs, and Mariners from 2014-16, though he has also spent time with six other MLB organizations and with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization.  The White Sox previously signed Roach to a minors deal last offseason, and he pitched well for Triple-A Charlotte (2.65 ERA over 95 innings, starting 15 of 16 games) before being released in July to sign with Japan’s Orix Buffaloes.

Angels Sign Alex Meyer To Minors Contract

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The Angels have re-signed right-hander Alex Meyer to a minor league deal, Brandon Warne of Zone Coverage reports (Twitter link).  Meyer was originally released by the club at the end of November.

2018 was a lost season for Meyer, as he spent the entire season recovering from surgery to fix a torn labrum in September 2017.  While he wasn’t expected to pitch last year, Meyer’s rehab process suffered a couple of notable bumps in the road — he received a cortisone shot in late August to relieve some pain in his shoulder, and he was shut down in early November after another setback.  Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group tweets that Meyer won’t be cleared to begin throwing until February, so it could still be some time before we see the 6’9″ right-hander back on the mound.

Selected 23rd overall by the Nationals in the 2011 draft, Meyer was a regular in top-100 prospect rankings in the first half of the decade, though he has yet to convert that promise into production at the big league level.  Meyer has a 4.63 ERA over 95 1/3 career innings for the Twins and Angels, showing some ability to miss bats (10.1 K/9) but also struggling with control (5.9 BB/9).  Meyer has started 19 of his 22 MLB games, though given his health issues, the Angels could explore using him as a reliever in the future.  Meyer’s height and velocity (95.6 mph average fastball) could make him an intimidating weapon out of the bullpen, particularly if the shorter outings can add even more speed to his heater.

Beyond anything, of course, the first step is simply to get Meyer healthy and regularly throwing.  The Angels have been looking for both starters and relievers this offseason, and Meyer could be an interesting wild card to address either area if he can overcome his shoulder problems.

Red Sox To Sign Carson Smith To Minors Deal

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The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Carson Smith, as per Zone Coverage’s Brandon Warne (Twitter link).  Smith elected free agency after being outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster following the season, but will now return to the organization in the hopes of finally making a significant impact in the Sox bullpen.

Originally acquired by the Red Sox as part of a four-player trade with the Mariners in December 2015, Smith was tabbed as a potential closer of the future in Boston following his breakout rookie season.  Smith posted a 2.31 ERA, 4.18 K/BB rate, 64.8% ground ball rate, and an 11.8 K/9 over 70 innings out of Seattle’s bullpen in 2015, looking like a star reliever in the making.

Unfortunately for Smith and the Red Sox, his tenure in Boston has thus far been marred by injuries.  Smith pitched just 9 1/3 total innings in 2016-17 due to Tommy John surgery, and he then managed just 14 1/3 innings in 2018 before suffering a shoulder injury that required season-ending surgery.  The latter injury was caused when Smith tossed his glove in the Boston dugout out of frustration over a rough outing, and it led to some controversy when Smith suggested that overuse might have contributed to his issues (unsurprisingly, manager Alex Cora didn’t agree with this assessment).

That difference of opinion notwithstanding, Smith will now look to get healthy and get his career back on track in Spring Training.  From Boston’s perspective, there isn’t much risk in bringing Smith back, and he still some intriguing upside given his stuff and the fact that he is under team control (via arbitration) through the 2020 season.  With Joe Kelly now a Dodger and Craig Kimbrel perhaps too expensive for Boston’s liking, the Red Sox have been on the hunt for bullpen help at an affordable price.  Smith can hardly be considered a candidate to replace Kimbrel or Kelly at the end of games, of course, though he does give the Sox yet another depth option to consider as they look at augmenting their current bullpen corps (Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier, Heath Hembree and company) with a more established ninth-inning arm.

NPB’s Yomiuri Giants To Sign Ryan Cook

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The Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball have reached a deal with right-hander Ryan Cook, as per a team announcement (via The Japan Times).  Cook will earn roughly $1.3MM (or 140 million yen) for the coming season.

Cook chose to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Mariners’ 40-man roster in October.  The 31-year-old posted a 5.29 ERA over 17 relief innings for Seattle last season, delivering some strong peripherals (12.2 K/9, 3.29 K/BB rate) but also a bloated 2.1 HR/9 that led to his unimpressive ERA.  A 3.48 xFIP and 2.97 SIERA paint a much more favorable impression of Cook’s 2018 performance.

It was Cook’s first taste of Major League action since the 2015 season, when shoulder problems limited him to just 8 2/3 innings for the A’s and Red Sox, and a variety of further injuries kept Cook on the shelf for all of 2016 and 2017.  Cook spent much of that stretch recovering from Tommy John surgery, and also had to deal with nerve transposition surgery in his throwing arm, as well as torn hamstring and lat muscles.  With this long layoff in mind, Cook’s 94.4 mph average fastball velocity in 2018 was a good sign, as he checked in just a touch below his 94.7 mph career average.

From 2012-14, Cook was a stalwart in the Athletics’ bullpen, posting a 2.60 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 2.66 K/BB rate over 190 2/3 innings and earning a spot on the 2012 AL All-Star roster.  He showed glimpses of this form last season now that he was finally healthy, and Cook will look to further re-establish himself in Japan.  It’s likely Cook would have had to settle for a minor league contract with an MLB team, so his deal with Yomiuri gives him a nice payday as well as an opportunity in a brand-new environment.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Jays, Yanks, Bryce, Manny, Mets, Trout

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This week in baseball blogs…

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