Three Needs: Detroit Tigers
We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We started with the Mariners and will now turn to a Tigers club that is finishing out a brutal season …
1. Work The Wire Aggressively
We’re focused here on reasonably attainable goals in a given offseason, not just identifying the very worst parts of a bad roster. And truth be told, it’s a bit of a fool’s errand to look too closely at specific areas of need. The reality of the situation in Detroit is that the organization is about as devoid of present MLB talent as any in recent memory. When a team is this bad, it’s not hard to identify areas to get better. Rather than focusing primarily on filling gaps, the approach this winter should be to accumulate as much talent as possible.
With the worst record in baseball, the Tigers not only have the first pick in next year’s draft (and in the upcoming Rule 5 draft), but top waiver priority from now until thirty days have elapsed in the 2020 campaign. That represents the first bite at the apple on any player who’s sent onto the wire. It’s a nifty benefit — if you’re willing and able to do the 40-man roster maneuvering needed to make it work.
Any front office must take care to protect their own prospects and manage the 40-man. The Tigers are no different. But a willingness to be aggressive with marginal veterans can help create additional openings. Having already sunken this far, the club can’t worry too much about holding open roster spots for lower-ceiling talent.
While GM Al Avila certainly has placed some claims since taking the helm — including a few quite recently — he’s nowhere near as apt to utilize that mechanism as, say, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi. There are conceivable benefits to avoiding too much churn, particularly during the season. But working the waiver wire — both by claiming and in some cases attempting to outright previously claimed players — offers an intriguing path to securing the rights to interesting players and obtaining a first-hand look.
2. Don’t Shy Away From Trading Matthew Boyd
Hanging onto Matthew Boyd at the trade deadline may or may not have been wise. It’s impossible to pass judgment from the outside without knowing what was actually available in trade talks. Though it stinks for the Detroit organization that the 28-year-old has gone on to post a suboptimal second half, that doesn’t mean we should re-litigate the trade deadline call without further information.
So, what now? It’s easy to presume that the Tigers have no choice but to hang onto Boyd and hope he shows better in the first half of 2019, creating a new deadline opportunity. And that may be the likeliest outcome. But the possibility of a deal shouldn’t be foreclosed in advance.
It’s true, Boyd did take a step back over his past dozen starts. But he didn’t collapse. He has still averaged better than eleven strikeouts per nine in that span. While the walks and homers are up significantly, his physical skills don’t appear to have eroded. There’s no reason to believe he’s hurt. Most of the same things that made him so suddenly interesting remain in place, such as a 14.0% swinging-strike rate, 3.56 SIERA, and three years of affordable arbitration control.
When contenders scan the free agent market for options, they’re not going to see that kind of upside — at least, for anything less than a whopping financial investment. Boyd won’t require that kind of commitment. The Detroit club shouldn’t settle for just anything, but ought to be shopping a talented pitcher who is rather unlikely to be in his prime and in a Tigers uniform when the team is next competitive.
3. Consider A Multi-Year Free Agent Signing
Wait, what?! Yeah, I’m advocating for selling off the team’s best remaining MLB asset and generally abandoning any thought of near-term contention. But that doesn’t mean the Tigers should be in pure tank mode. The point is that they ought to be looking for ways to maximize opportunities to add value to the organization. And that can include adding MLB players.
The Tigers are three winters removed from a multi-year free-agent signing. You have to go way back to that 2015-16 offseason to find any big spending. There’s good reason for that, to be sure. But there are also reasons to consider the potential upside in exploring larger deals again.
No, I’m not saying the Tigers should be signing the next Justin Upton or Jordan Zimmermann deal. But continuing to ink one-year, fill-in veterans makes for limited upside. After committing $15.5MM, the club wasn’t able to cash in any of its most recent one-year signings (Tyson Ross, Jordy Mercer, Matt Moore, Josh Harrison) because all of these veterans ended up being hurt. And I need not remind Tigers fans of the disappointing outcomes of the rental sales of J.D. Martinez and Nicholas Castellanos.
The Tigers’ payroll obligations are falling off a cliff, with nothing committed from this point forward aside from the sunk costs of Zimmermann and Miguel Cabrera (along with one more payout to Prince Fielder). With many organizations showing a reduced willingness to give the extra year, there could be some opportunity to draw interesting free agents to Detroit. That could open the door to a class of players the Tigers wouldn’t otherwise have access to while also increasing the potential return that could be realized in a trade if things go well. Plus, spreading the risk of injuries over multiple seasons isn’t without its merit. With free payroll to work with, the Tigers should have greater risk appetite and at least pursue some bold strategies.
Matt Klentak On Realmuto, Deadline, Pitching, Kapler & Staff
While the Phillies aren’t buried yet, their season is hanging on by a thread. Against that backdrop, GM Matt Klentak addressed a variety of topics yesterday with reporters including Jim Salisbury of CSNPhilly.com.
Looking forward, Klentak spoke glowingly of backstop J.T. Realmuto, whose big season has been a bright spot — and will likely prompt extension talks this winter. The Phillies aren’t shying away from making their intentions known.
Per Klentak:
“I think J.T. has had a phenomenal season. When we acquired him, I declared him the best catcher in baseball. He’s been better than that. He’s been everything we could have asked for. I think it’s reasonable to expect that one of our offseason goals will be to address his contract situation and whether we line up or not remains to be seen. But he has done nothing to change our belief in him or our desire to make him a Phillie for the foreseeable future.”
Unsurprisingly, much of the discussion looked back — and not necessarily at the positive aspects of the season. Klentak was probed in particular regarding the club’s quiet mid-season roster-building efforts. He explained that the organization started with a sober assessment of its “place in the standings” and injury outlook.
From there, it was simply a matter of assessing the market and “mak[ing] judgments.” Klentak cautioned against putting too much focus on the fact that the organization did not end up parting with major talent in any deals. Getting something for (almost) nothing is laudable, after all. As Klentak put it: “I understand that sometimes what you give up can serve as a proxy for aggressiveness or intent but I think there’s also a value in reading a market and trying to make the best deals that you can.”
As it turned out, said Klentak, the organization was able to secure useful players over the summer. He cited Corey Dickerson‘s productive hitting and the “meaningful innings” thrown by relievers Mike Morin and Blake Parker, while explaining that starter Jason Vargas “has done largely what we’ve asked him to do, which was take the ball every day and keep us in the game.” Ultimately, Klentak said, the group of acquired players “may not have been household names, but I think most of them have performed in such a way that they’ve delivered what we hope they’d deliver.”
The rotation was a particular focus, with reporters asking about the club’s decision to pass on mid-season signee Dallas Keuchel, who has pitched well for the division-rival Braves. Klentak acknowledged, generally, that the organization will always “look at the reasons we made or didn’t make decisions and try to learn from it.”
In this case, Klentak indicated, the club felt not only that the 2018 starting staff was “healthy and effective,” but that it could take another step forward:
“There’s no question that we bet on some improvement from some of those players based on what they had shown in 2018, based on their ages, their development curve, that we thought there would be more improvement than what we’ve seen. It’s hard to look back and second-guess that thought process. It’s easy to look back and second-guess the results, just like many Phillies fans have second-guessed.”
Needless to say, the outlook of the rotation in 2020 and beyond figures to be an area of focus over the winter. There’ll be some work to do on the position-player side as well, but the Phillies face an abundance of pitching questions. Just how the front office will go about answering them remains a topic for another day.
There was also plenty of chatter regarding manager Gabe Kapler and his coaching staff. Kapler is “doing a very good job” overall, said Klentak, who said “the group is playing hard down the stretch.” While the results have trended downward in the second half of the season, Klentak says that he has observed “subtle improvements” in players that were at least partially attributable to the work of the uniformed staff.
Klentak also defended pitching coach Chris Young, who was elevated to the role over predecessor Rick Kranitz — who ended up taking the same job for the aforementioned Braves staff. “I think he and our group have made a lot of improvements along the way,” said Klentak. “But I understand why when a season has gone the way that it does his name is going to be in the paper.”
Ultimately, the Phils aren’t ready to make any final decisions about what kinds of changes will be made over the winter. “Until we play the last game of 2019, we’re not going to start talking about 2020 yet,” Klentak said.
Josh Donaldson On Braves Tenure
After back-to-back injury-limited seasons divided between Toronto and Cleveland, former AL MVP Josh Donaldson settled for a short-term contract in free agency last winter. Donaldson accepted the Braves’ one-year, $23MM offer in hopes of a bounce-back campaign that would propel him to a larger deal this offseason. That’ll likely come to fruition in a couple months for Donaldson, who has enjoyed a healthy and excellent year for an Atlanta team that’s close to locking up the National League East.
The playoff-bound Braves will vie for a championship in October, but no matter how their season ends, it stands to reason they’ll attempt to re-sign Donaldson. General manager Alex Anthopoulos suggested last month the Braves would gladly welcome him back, while Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution wrote Wednesday they “would love” to keep Donaldson in the fold. Donaldson, meanwhile, seems to have a similar affinity for the Braves.
“I’ve enjoyed playing here every day,” Donaldson told Burns of his time in Atlanta. “And I look forward to playing in this uniform as long as I can.”
Based on the comments Anthopoulos and Donaldson have made, it’s fair to say the two sides have mutual interest in continuing their partnership. However, it’ll likely take a much greater financial commitment from the team in order to bring Donaldson back. Even though Donaldson doesn’t have youth on his side (he’ll turn 34 in December), he should still be able to land at least a two- to three-year contract worth upward of $20MM per annum in the offseason. After all, Donaldson has reestablished himself as a force this season with a .258/.378/.526 line, 37 home runs and 5.7 bWAR/4.7 fWAR in 632 plate appearances.
Thanks to his 2019 production, Donaldson may well end up as the game’s second-best position player on the open market, trailing only Nationals MVP candidate Anthony Rendon. Teams that need help at third base but can’t or don’t want to pay Rendon nine figures (perhaps around $150MM or more) could look to Donaldson as an appealing and much less costly alternative. If Donaldson cashes in elsewhere, the Braves will have a ready-made replacement in third baseman/outfielder Austin Riley. They still figure to be among the most ardent bidders for Donaldson, though, and it should help their cause that he seems more than willing to stay put.
NL Notes: Carpenter, Phillies, Pirates, Cubs
The Cardinals look to be on their way to an NL Central title, but their 2019 success has come in spite of an uncharacteristically pedestrian year from third baseman Matt Carpenter. With the Cardinals trying to hold on in their division, Carpenter has taken a backseat to rookie Tommy Edman at the hot corner. While Carpenter did start there Wednesday in the Cardinals’ win over the Nationals, Edman has made twice as many starts this month (12 to six). Carpenter discussed his decrease in playing time with Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, acknowledging that Edman’s “got to play every day.” Although Carpenter went on to admit that dropping in the pecking order has been difficult, he added: “I understand part of what’s happening. Guys have played well and deserve to be in there. We’re winning and, at the end of the day, that’s ultimately what’s most important.” There’s still time for Carpenter to reemerge this year, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle him in the offseason if they’re convinced Edman’s the answer at third. A trade would be tough to put together, as Carpenter has two guaranteed years and $39MM coming his way after signing an extension in April. The three-time All-Star’s deal also includes a no-trade clause.
More from the NL…
- Outfielder Nick Williams‘ time with the Phillies seems likely to end when the Phillies’ season concludes, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. It’s clear Williams, once a touted prospect, has fallen out of favor with the organization. Even though the Phillies have been facing multiple injuries in their outfield, Williams still hasn’t been able to crack their lineup, as his most recent at-bat came Sept. 2. While Williams did thrive at the Triple-A level this year, he has stumbled to a dreadful.157/.204/.255 line in 108 major league plate appearances in 2019. Williams will still have a minor league option remaining after this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Phillies remove him from their 40-man roster then. It would be an unceremonious ending to a once-promising Philly tenure for Williams, who joined the club in 2015 as part of the package it received from Texas for Cole Hamels.
- Injured Pirates Josh Bell and Starling Marte are hoping to return this season, though it’s unlikely either will be ready until next week, Adam Berry of MLB.com writes. Bell has been out since Sept. 13 with a left groin strain, while Marte hasn’t appeared since the 10th on account of a sprained left wrist. In what has turned into a nightmare of a season for the Pirates both on and off the field, Bell and Marte have been among their few bright lights. If the 27-year-old Bell does come back in the season’s final days, he’ll try to make a last-second run at the 40-home run mark. Bell’s sitting at 37 dingers and a .277/.367/.569 line over 613 trips to the plate. Marte, 30, has posted his sixth season with at least 3.0 fWAR, thanks in part to a .295/.342/.503 line through 586 PA. This is also the second 20-20 campaign in a row for Marte, who has swatted 23 HRs and racked up 25 steals.
- Cubs reliever Brandon Kintzler has dealt with a mild oblique strain for a month and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 10. However, Kintzler said he had a “great day” throwing from a mound Wednesday, and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy indicated the right-hander could return as early as Sunday (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). If true, Kintzler (as well as the returning Craig Kimbrel) could help bolster the Cubs’ bullpen as the team tries to earn a playoff spot. Chicago’s relief corps took the loss against Cincinnati on Wednesday, leaving the Cubs in a tie with the Brewers for the NL’s second wild-card position.
Phillies Will Pursue Realmuto Extension In Offseason
Although the Phillies are hanging in the National League wild-card race as time runs out in the regular season, it seems fair to say this year hasn’t quite gone according to plan for the club. After missing the playoffs for the seventh straight time in 2018, the Phillies reeled in more established talent than anyone over the winter, with star catcher J.T. Realmuto among several big names the team added. Some of those pickups haven’t produced as hoped, which helps explain why the Phillies are 3 1/2 games back, but Realmuto has more than held up his end of the bargain.
Acquired from the division-rival Marlins last February, Realmuto has been the game’s foremost backstop for the second straight season. The 28-year-old hasn’t been as formidable at the plate as he was in 2018, but his .277/.328/.496 line with 25 home runs in 576 PA is well above average for his position. And when the athletic Realmuto has gotten on, he has graded as one of FanGraphs’ premier base runners.
Of course, Realmuto’s value extends well beyond what he’s capable of doing on offense. He’s also a world-class defender, one who has thrown out an eye-popping 43-of-91 would-be base stealers this year. Realmuto’s 47 percent caught-stealing rate is good for first in the game, while he comes in third overall in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average metric.
The all-around package Realmuto has given the Phillies this year has been worth 5.7 fWAR/4.4 bWAR, and it’s possible he’ll draw some NL MVP consideration as a result. Regardless, the Phillies love what they’ve seen, and they’re hopeful their union with Realmuto will last for a while. General manager Matt Klentak confirmed as much as a guest on MLB Network reporter Jon Heyman’s podcast.
Asked if the Phillies will work to extend Realmuto, Klentak told Heyman: “I think it’s fair to speculate that that’ll be one of our offseason priorities this year,” adding: “We hope he’s a guy who’ll be wearing a Phillies uniform for a long, long time. It’s something we”ll address this offseason, and hopefully we’ll be able to line up. We’ll see.”
Klentak also heaped praise on the well-rounded Realmuto for his contributions, saying: “There’s really nothing on the field that this guy can’t do. He has the best foot speed of any catcher in baseball — he doesn’t run like a catcher at all — he hustles all the time. He’s a really good fit for our city, with his style of play. In the second half, he’s been on fire at that plate. He was maybe more neutral in the first half, but in the second half he’s carried us at times. And obviously the defense is probably the separator. Not only the framing improvements, but also his ability to gun down runners. It’s a joke how good this guy is behind the plate — how quick he gets rid of the ball and how frequently he’s putting it right on the bag for our middle infielders to drop the tag down.”
It’s clear Philadelphia’s aim is to lock up Realmuto, though it’s not at immediate risk of seeing him walk. He’ll be controllable for another year via arbitration, where he’ll surely get a sizable raise on this season’s $5.9MM extension if the two sides don’t line up on a new deal. Realmuto, for his part, already indicated back in June that he’d be open to an extension. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explained then, Realmuto shouldn’t have difficulty landing a lucrative contract of at least four years.
Craig Kimbrel Nearing Return
WEDNESDAY: The Cubs expect Kimbrel to return Thursday or Friday, according to Maddon (via Wittenmyer).
MONDAY: Winners of five consecutive games, the Cubs have sizzled over the past several days as they attempt to earn their fifth straight playoff berth. A few of those victories came in blowout fashion, which means Chicago has largely been able to get by without the services of injured closer Craig Kimbrel. The club probably won’t be able to cruise to all of its wins over the next couple weeks, though, making it imperative for Kimbrel to return. It appears that’s close to happening, as president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and manager Joe Maddon suggested Monday that Kimbrel could be back for the Cubs’ crucial series against the division-rival Cardinals this weekend, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. In the meantime, he’ll throw a simulated game Tuesday.
The Cubs have been sans Kimbrel since he landed on the injured list Sept. 5 (retroactive to Sept. 1) with right elbow inflammation. The normally stellar Kimbrel had endured a rough season even before then, as he surrendered 12 earned runs on 18 hits and 11 walks (with 26 strikeouts) over 19 innings.
The 5.68 ERA, 6.64 FIP, 5.21 BB/9 and 2.84 HR/9 Kimbrel have posted this year aren’t the type of numbers the Cubs had in mind when they signed the 31-year-old to a three-year, $43MM guarantee in June, thus ending a long standoff in free agency between him and the league. At that point, Kimbrel was coming off yet another more-than-respectable season. The former Brave, Padre and Red Sox entered 2019 with a 2.04 ERA/2.13 FIP, 14.58 K/9, 3.52 BB/9 and a .67 HR/9 across 551 2/3 lifetime frames.
With the Cubs just a game up on the Brewers for the NL’s second wild-card spot and two back of the Cards in the NL Central, it would be a boon for a wobbly bullpen if Kimbrel were to revisit his vintage form as September nears a conclusion. Otherwise, more blowups from the Cubs’ prized summer signing down the stretch could help lead to a premature ending to their season.
Health Notes: Hill, Pham, Nats, Padres
Let’s check in on a few notable health situations from around the majors…
- Dodgers southpaw Rich Hill‘s strained left MCL looked like a possible season-ender when it happened last week, but the 39-year-old will manage to rejoin the club before the playoffs. The plan is for Hill to take a major league mound again next Tuesday, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com tweets. Although he has missed a substantial amount of time this year, Hill has yet again been one of the Dodgers’ most effective starters in 2019. It’s unclear how much length he’ll be able to give the team for the rest of the season, though. Manager Dave Roberts told Gurnick and other reporters that the Dodgers’ pitching situation for Game 4 of the NLDS – which Hill had been lined up to start – looks “cloudy.” The team expects to take an “unconventional” route with its pitching staff in that contest, Roberts added. Of course, if the Dodgers sweep their first-round opponent in three games, it’ll prove to be a moot point.
- If the Rays weren’t in the American League playoff race, banged up outfielder Tommy Pham would “one thousand percent” have shut it down for the season by now, he said (via Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times). Pham’s dealing with injuries to his right hand and elbow that don’t figure to heal until the offseason, and he hasn’t been a consistent presence in the Rays’ lineup lately as a result. But Pham has nonetheless been productive in his recent appearances and throughout the season, as he owns a .276/.373/.455 line with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases (25 attempts) in 616 plate appearances.
- Nationals catcher Kurt Suzuki has been out with right elbow troubles since Sept. 7, and a return still doesn’t look imminent. While Suzuki is able to hit and catch again, he remains “days away” from receiving clearance to throw, Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com writes. Suzuki seems optimistic he’ll be back sometime soon, but meanwhile, the playoff-contending Nats will continue to rely almost exclusively on Yan Gomes behind the plate.
- The Padres have shut 20-year-old reliever Andres Munoz down for the season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The rookie righty tossed a professional-high 58 2/3 innings this season between the majors and minors, more than doubling the previous best of 24 2/3 he logged at the lower levels a year ago. Munoz impressed in 23 frames with the Padres this season, as he notched a 3.91 ERA/3.17 FIP with 11.74 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9. Plus, as Acee points out, Munoz’s average fastball velocity of 99.9 mph sits second in the league.
Poll: AL Cy Young Favorite
We’re obviously not going to see a repeat Cy Young winner in the American League this year. Rays left-hander Blake Snell took home the award a season ago, but his output has fallen off somewhat since 2018, and he just returned from a several-week absence anyway. There’s another Ray, right-hander Charlie Morton, who may have a case to rack up some votes this season, but it looks as if the winner will be one of his ex-Astros teammates.
Righty aces Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander have arguably outdone every other AL pitcher this year. The numbers entering Wednesday’s action bear it out, as you’ll see below…
- ERA – Verlander: 2.50 (first in the AL); Cole: 2.62 (second)
- Innings: Verlander: 212 (first); Cole: 192 1/3 (fifth)
- Strikeouts per nine: Cole: 13.66 (first); Verlander: 12.01 (second)
- K/BB ratio: Verlander: 7.08 (first); Cole: 6.49 (second)
- Wins – Verlander: 19 (first); Cole: 17 (second)
- bWAR – Verlander: 7.8 (second); Cole: 6.0 (fourth)
- fWAR – Cole: 6.5 (first); Verlander: 6.1 (tied for second)
Some of those figures have already changed tonight, as Cole is in the midst of a lights-out showing against the Rangers. As of this writing, the 29-year-old has fired six shutout innings of two-hit ball with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Cole now has exactly 300 punchouts on the season, putting him in fairly exclusive company.
Based on Cole’s enormous K total and the rest of the statistics above, it would be tough to make a case against him or Verlander. However, two other Texas-based starters – Mike Minor and Lance Lynn – have also enjoyed elite seasons. Minor ranks first in the league in pitcher bWAR, in fact, with Lynn not far behind. Despite that, the two Rangers are clearly facing long odds if they’re going to earn Cy Young honors over either of the Astros. Likewise, although Morton, Indians starter Shane Bieber and even Athletics closer Liam Hendriks have arguably placed themselves in the race with their marvelous performances, it’s improbable anyone from that trio will come out on top.
A first-time Cy Young win for Cole in 2019 would come at an especially opportune time for him, as he’s under two months from reaching free agency. Cole figures to rake in the largest contract on the open market then – perhaps a deal in excess of $200MM – and it wouldn’t exactly harm his bargaining power to collect the game’s most prestigious honor for a pitcher in the meantime. The 36-year-old Verlander has surprisingly won the Cy Young just once in what should be a Hall of Fame career. The former Tiger also grabbed the AL MVP that season (2011), and though it was eight years ago, Verlander hasn’t slowed down to any noticeable degree since.
Cole, Verlander and the rest only have a couple weeks left to make their Cy Young arguments on the mound. As things stand, which pitcher do you think is in the lead?
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the AL Cy Young front-runner?
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Justin Verlander 70% (4,622)
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Gerrit Cole 27% (1,760)
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Other (specify in comments) 3% (224)
Total votes: 6,606
Howie Kendrick Is Still Killing The Ball
It was June 11 that I wrote a piece titled “Howie Kendrick Is Killing The Ball.” At that point in 2019, the veteran National had quietly been one of the majors’ most effective hitters of the season. Kendrick was then the proud owner of a .333/.376/.604 line with a 149 wRC+ in 178 plate appearances, and though there may have been skepticism in regards to the 36-year-old’s early season excellence, he hasn’t let up over the past two months. The fact that Kendrick hasn’t slowed down has helped Washington rebound from a forgettable start to become the favorite to take the top wild-card spot in the National League.
Although the Nationals lost to the Cardinals on Wednesday, they’re still a game up on the league’s fourth seed. And Kendrick contributed even in defeat, chipping in a pair of hits in four at-bats and raising his season line to .343/.393/.577 through 346 PA. Among hitters who have walked to the plate 300-plus times this year, the infielder ranks second in average, 13th in on-base percentage and 15th in slugging percentage. His wRC+, 146, ties him with teammate/superstar Juan Soto for 13th in the league and also places him among the likes of Mets NL Rookie of the Year favorite Pete Alonso and Braves standout Freddie Freeman.
Kendrick’s current production is especially surprising coming from someone who has been closer to an average offensive player than an elite one throughout his career. That’s not to say the former Angel, Dodger and Phillie hasn’t been a useful player since he debuted in 2006 – he has, evidenced in part by his 32.5 rWAR/31.1 fWAR – but Kendrick has clearly found another gear this season.
As was the case a couple months ago, Kendrick’s 2019 output doesn’t look like a fluke. On the contrary, he has continued to make more damaging contact than just about every hitter in the game. Kendrick’s .424 expected weighted on-base average is tied for third in the sport with Astros Rookie of the Year-to-be Yordan Alvarez. The only players better in that category have been the Angels’ Mike Trout and the Dodgers’ Cody Bellinger, two serious MVP candidates. Kendrick has been similarly tremendous in other key Statcast categories, as he sits in baseball’s 94th percentile in average exit velocity (92.2 mph), its 97th percentile in hard-hit rate (50.2 percent), its 99th percentile in expected slugging percentage (.608) and its 100th percentile in expected batting average (.330). Can’t argue with that.
So why the newfound dominance from a player who entered the year as a lifetime .291/.334/.422 hitter? An increased emphasis on power has been key. The right-handed Kendrick has hit more fly balls and gone to left field more than at just about any other point since he came into the majors. Those factors have helped produce 16 home runs, Kendrick’s second-highest total, and a personal-best .234 ISO that’s almost 100 points above his career mark of .137. And Kendrick hasn’t sold out for his uptick in power by striking out more. Instead, he has fanned in a career-low 13.7 percent of plate appearances, swung and missed a personal-best 7.3 percent of the time and posted a matching walk percentage of 7.3. For reference, Kendrick came into 2019 with strikeout, swinging-strike and walk rates of 17.4, 9.8 and 5.3, respectively.
If there’s one way to attempt to pooh-pooh Kendrick’s numbers, it’s by citing his sky-high batting average on balls in play. On paper, it would be difficult to count on Kendrick replicating his .357 mark in that department in future years – especially considering the former stolen base threat lacks speed nowadays. That said, Kendrick has been known for running unsustainable-looking BABIPs throughout his career (.341 lifetime), so it would seem unwise to expect the mark to dramatically plummet going forward.
With just under two weeks left in the regular season, it’s apparent Kendrick is going to wrap up the campaign with pristine production. Whenever it does end for the potentially playoff-bound Nationals, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them make an earnest effort to keep Kendrick in the fold heading into 2020. The free agent-to-be is just a year removed from suffering a catastrophic injury – a ruptured right Achilles – but Kendrick now looks better than ever. Even though he’s an aging player in a game that’s becoming increasingly younger, Kendrick shouldn’t have difficulty finding a guaranteed contract beyond this season.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Blake Treinen Diagnosed With Stress Reaction In His Back
The Athletics are shutting down right-hander Blake Treinen for the remainder of the regular season due to a back issue, manager Bob Melvin announced after today’s game (Twitter links via Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle). MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos tweets that Treinen has been diagnosed with a stress reaction in his back.
The issue has been bothering Treinen for the past three weeks, it seems, and it’s reached the point where he requires some downtime. It’s worth noting that the team has not yet formally ruled Treinen out for a postseason run, though that’ll surely depend on how his back responds to this shutdown. In his absence, the A’s are moving Chris Bassitt into a long relief/piggyback role, per Slusser, and seemingly going with a rotation consisting of Sean Manaea, Mike Fiers, Tanner Roark, Brett Anderson and Homer Bailey.
It’s been an ugly season for Treinen, who stepped up as one of baseball’s premier relievers almost immediately upon being traded to Oakland at the 2017 deadline. The now-31-year-old posted 38 innings of 2.13 ERA ball with a 42-to-12 K/BB ratio down the stretch for Oakland in ’17 before turning in a ridiculous 0.78 ERA (1.82 FIP) with 11.2 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and a 51.9 percent ground-ball rate in 80 1/3 innings last year.
Treinen, however, lost his grip on the closer’s role in 2019 and has generally struggled since a late-April meltdown against in Toronto. His regular season will come to a close with a 4.91 ERA (5.14 FIP, 5.02 xFIP), 9.1 K/9, 5.7 BB/9, 1.38 HR/9 and a 42.8 percent grounder rate. Treinen’s average velocity, swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate have all trended sharply in the wrong direction, leaving the A’s with somewhat of a decision in the offseason; he’s due a raise on this year’s $6.4MM salary in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. For a team with the type of payroll constraints the Athletics face each year, that could be viewed as a steep price to pay for a rebound candidate.
The Athletics, now 92-61 on the season, have won eight of their past 10 games and now hold a 2.5-game lead on the top Wild Card spot in the American League. There’s still time for the Rays and/or Indians to overtake them, but the A’s are in a fairly commanding spot with regard to the AL Wild Card race at this point. Their schedule the rest of the way features three home games against the Rangers, two on the road against the Angels and four on the road in Seattle.