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The Opener: Roberts, Rodriguez, Walker

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As the start of the regular season draws closer, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world heading into the weekend:

1. Roberts, Dodgers nearing extension?

Working out an extension with longtime manager Dave Roberts has been a clear priority for the Dodgers all offseason, and reporting yesterday indicated that the sides are not only making progress towards a deal, but that an agreement is likely to be finalized before the club’s trip to Tokyo next week. With Roberts entering the final year of his contract, getting a deal done should be a major relief for both sides. Roberts has spent all but one game of his managerial career in Los Angeles, and the partnership has certainly been very fruitful. Since Roberts first took over as manager back in 2016, the Dodgers have a sensational 851-506 record with nine consecutive playoff appearances, two World Series championships and two additional NL pennants.

2. Rodriguez being evaluated:

The Orioles are dealing with another injury scare, as manager Brandon Hyde told reporters (including Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun) that young right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is dealing with soreness in his right triceps. A more comprehensive update on Rodriguez’s status is expected sometime today after they receive test results. Word of a potential triceps issue comes just days after Rodriguez downplayed an alarming velocity drop in a spring start against the Twins, one in which he felt “sluggish” and felt as though all of his pitches were “flat,” to use his own words.

It’s a concerning situation with Opening Day just three weeks away, especially for an Orioles club that’s light on potential impact rotation talent after losing Corbin Burnes to free agency this past winter. If Rodriguez were to miss time due to the issue, the club would seem poised to utilize a quintet of Zach Eflin, Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, Dean Kremer, and Albert Suarez in the rotation, although youngsters like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott could also be viable depth options.

3. Walker undergoing MRI:

Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) yesterday that first baseman Christian Walker was headed back to Houston yesterday in order to undergo an MRI. Walker’s been dealing with an ailing oblique in recent days, and depending on what the imaging reveals it’s possible that the veteran won’t be ready for Opening Day. That could clear playing time for last year’s first baseman Jon Singleton to return to the lineup, though third baseman Isaac Paredes and backup catcher Victor Caratini also have some level of experience at the position. Even so, the loss of Walker for significant time would be a major blow to the club given his long track record of steady work on both sides of the ball in Arizona, which convinced Houston to offer him a three-year, $60MM deal this winter.

Guerrero: Asking Price In Extension Talks Was Below $600MM

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Extension talks between the Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. didn’t result in a deal before the start of Spring Training. That has been the slugger’s self-imposed deadline. While he left the door ajar to hearing out other offers from Toronto, Guerrero said last month that he expects to test free agency.

The four-time All-Star provided some details on negotiations in a Spanish-language interview with Enrique Rojas and Juan Arturo Recio of ESPN. ESPN has also published a summary of Guerrero’s comments in English. Most notably, he says that his camp’s final offer to the Jays checked in below $600MM, though he did not provide the specific asking price. He pushed back against the suggestion that he was seeking a deal comparable to the $765MM which Juan Soto secured from the Mets.

While Guerrero seemingly wasn’t pursuing an average annual value close to Soto’s $51MM mark, he did seek one of the largest contracts ever. Guerrero indicated he was looking for 14 or 15 years. Soto’s 15-year contract is the longest of all time. Fernando Tatis Jr. inked a 14-year extension, but that began in his age-22 season. Guerrero turns 26 in a few weeks. Even if the extension proposal would have bought out his final arbitration year, a deal of 14-plus years would run through at least age 39.

The Jays were involved in the Soto bidding. They were seemingly among the teams willing to go above $600MM on the superstar outfielder. Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reported shortly after Soto agreed to his deal with the Mets that Toronto’s last offer landed below $700MM. One could argue they should be willing to make a similar investment for Guerrero, but his track record has been less consistent — which is reflected in the comparably lower asking price.

Guerrero is a career .288/.363/.500 hitter. He’s coming off his second-best season, as he raked at a .323/.396/.544 clip with 30 homers a year ago. Soto has a lifetime .285/.421/.532 batting line; he hit .288/.419/.569 with 41 longballs during his walk year with the Yankees. Guerrero said in December that the Jays had made an offer in the $340MM range prior to the Soto contract. That would have valued him similarly to Rafael Devers, who inked a $313.5MM extension with the Red Sox in 2023. Devers was a career .283/.342/.512 hitter who was entering his age-26 season at the time. While he played a more valuable position, he’s a below-average defender at the hot corner.

It remains to be seen whether the Soto contract will dramatically improve the market for future top free agents. Teams could view him as an outlier, the kind of free agent who might only come along once every few decades. From a net present value perspective, Soto obliterated prior precedent. Shohei Ohtani’s deal was valued around $461MM and $438MM by MLB and the Players Association, respectively. That reflected the massive deferral structure. Either net present value still represented the largest contract in league history at the time. Soto broke that record by more than $300MM.

Guerrero and Kyle Tucker headline next winter’s free agent class. Tucker is coming off a monster .289/.408/.585 showing and plays a solid right field. He’s arguably the better player in the short term, but Guerrero is two years younger. That could give him the greatest earning power in the class, though it’ll obviously be heavily dependent on their respective platform seasons. Guerrero will make $28.5MM in his final year of arbitration.

MLB Mailbag: Skenes, Bregman, Nationals, Alcantara

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This week's mailbag gets into how long Paul Skenes will stay a Pirate, Alex Bregman opt-out scenarios, the NL East favorite, extensions for young Nationals players, potential Sandy Alcantara trade returns, the automated ball-strike system, and much more.

John asks:

I figure the Bucs' cheap owner will trade Skenes before his first arbitration year because he will never pay that kind of salary. If I'm right, when is his final year in Pittsburgh?

After the 2026 season, Paul Skenes will have three years of Major League service time and will be eligible for arbitration.  Barring an extension, Skenes and the Pirates will go through the arbitration process early in 2027, and his salary will take a huge leap that season.

How much of a leap is hard to predict not knowing what numbers Skenes will put up in 2025 and '26.  Remarkably, the first-time arbitration record for a starting pitcher remains Dallas Keuchel's $7.25MM from 2015, though prior to that Tim Lincecum at least topped $10MM as the midpoint between his $13MM filing figure and the Giants' $8MM.  Clayton Kershaw had a midpoint of $8.25MM once as well.  But the first-time starting pitcher arbitration market is not one that moves easily.

Arbitration eligible players are tendered contracts because they offer surplus value to their teams, star players included.  Corbin Burnes, for example, won the NL Cy Young award in 2021 and was paid $6.55MM in 2022, $10.01MM in '23 (after losing a hearing to the Brewers), and $15,637,500 in '24.

A healthy Skenes should be able to top Burnes' $32.2MM in total arbitration earnings, but even $45MM for that three-year period might represent a single season of what he could earn in free agency.

Say Skenes is a 6-WAR type player.  Bob Nutting has owned the Pirates since January 2007; what has happened with this team and similar players since he took over?

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Braves Considering Free Agent Catchers

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The Braves will open the season without their starting catcher. Sean Murphy will be down four to six weeks after breaking a rib when he was hit by a Will Kempner pitch last week. Murphy and Chadwick Tromp are the only catchers on the 40-man roster. Atlanta will need to make some kind of move by Opening Day.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that the Braves are giving some thought to adding Yasmani Grandal or James McCann. They’re the top two unsigned veteran catchers. Neither player would land more than a couple million dollars on a one-year contract. The Braves would need to decide whether it’s worth rostering a veteran if Murphy only misses the first few weeks of the regular season. Tromp is out of options, so they’d probably wind up cutting a catcher once Murphy returns.

The Braves also have a high-upside alternative. Drake Baldwin is one of the top handful of catching prospects in the sport. The former third-round draftee hit .276/.370/.423 with 16 homers between Double-A and Triple-A a year ago. Baldwin spent more than half the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, where he appeared in 72 games. He’ll turn 24 just after Opening Day. Baldwin should play in the majors at some point this year. He could break camp as the starter, which would keep Tromp in the backup role.

Atlanta would need to add Baldwin to their 40-man roster, but they could open a spot by placing Joe Jiménez on the 60-day injured list at any time. An outside acquisition would need to go on the 40-man anyways, so that’s unlikely to be much of a deterrent. Baldwin could get his first look at major league pitching and head back to Gwinnett for regular playing time once Murphy gets healthy.

McCann or Grandal would be less exciting, if arguably steadier, alternatives. They’re both mid-30s veterans who have plenty of experience working with big league pitching staffs. McCann has spent the last two seasons as Adley Rutschman’s backup in Baltimore. He hit .228/.274/.382 during his stint with the Orioles. McCann grades as a below-average pitch framer but has a strong reputation for his work with pitchers. He threw out a slightly above-average 23.5% of base stealers and wasn’t charged with a passed ball in 559 2/3 innings last season.

The switch-hitting Grandal appeared in 72 games for the Pirates. He hit .228/.304/.400 across 243 trips to the plate. That was his best offensive showing since a 23-homer campaign with the White Sox in 2021. Grandal continues to post excellent pitch framing grades, as he has throughout his career. He was charged with five passed balls across 560 1/3 frames, though, and he only managed to nab six of 72 opposing basestealers (an 8.3% rate). Grandal had the slowest pop time — average time to throw to second on steal attempts — among 83 qualified catchers, per Statcast.

Poll: Where Will Spencer Turnbull Sign?

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Earlier this week, Nick Deeds gave MLBTR readers a chance to voice their opinions about where Kyle Gibson, the top unsigned starting pitcher from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list, and David Robertson, the top unsigned reliever, would end up. That leaves one more unsigned player from our Top 50 list left to cover: 32-year-old right-hander Spencer Turnbull.

Turnbull became a free agent for the first time last offseason. He was coming off a poor final season with the Tigers. After missing all of 2022 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, he pitched to a 7.26 ERA and 5.24 SIERA over seven starts in April and May before suffering a neck injury. Upon his return from the IL in August, Detroit optioned him to Triple-A – even though he was nursing an injured foot at the time. The team would retroactively reverse the option in November (after non-tendering him the week prior), thereby granting Turnbull a full year of service time. Nonetheless, that didn’t change the fact that he spent the final weeks of the 2023 season in the minors, pitching to a 6.23 ERA and 4.25 FIP in eight starts.

Despite such an unceremonious ending to his Tigers tenure, Turnbull landed a $2MM guarantee from the Phillies last February, only $400K lower than his projected arbitration salary. It quickly seemed as if Philadelphia had struck gold, as the righty looked terrific out of the gate. Initially expected to start the season in the bullpen, Turnbull was thrust into the rotation when Taijuan Walker suffered an injury toward the end of spring training. Through six turns in the Phillies rotation during April, Turnbull tossed 32 1/3 frames with a 1.67 ERA and 3.37 SIERA. He struck out 28.3% of the batters he faced while inducing ground balls at a 49.4% rate.

Turnbull didn’t look quite as sharp after transitioning to a bullpen role in May, putting up a 4.26 ERA and 3.80 SIERA over his next 19 innings. Still, the Phillies were confident enough in his skills that they returned him to the rotation at the end of June when Walker suffered another injury. Unfortunately, Turnbull lasted just three innings in his first start in eight weeks, exiting with shoulder soreness and later hitting the IL with a right lat strain. That injury would prove to be season-ending.

All in all, Turnbull finished the 2024 season with impressive numbers: a 2.65 ERA and 3.67 SIERA, both career-bests. His 26.1% strikeout rate and 17.1% K-BB% were the best marks of his career as well. Unfortunately, 54 1/3 innings isn’t much of a sample size, and his lat strain only added to his reputation as an injury-prone pitcher. He has spent time on the 60-day IL in each of the past four seasons, and only once has he thrown more than 60 innings in a season (148 1/3 IP in 2019). Thus, MLBTR described him as “something of a wild card” on our Top 50 Free Agents list this offseason. On a per-inning basis, Turnbull has shown the skills to be an above-average starting pitcher – he has averaged just over 3.0 FanGraphs WAR per 162 IP throughout his career – but that means a lot less for a pitcher who has not proven he can consistently start more than a handful of games per season.

All of that explains why Turnbull remains unsigned into March, and indeed, it sheds light on why he has not been credibly linked to a single suitor this winter. That being said, it’s not as if Turnbull can’t provide value to a major league club. Even with all the time he spent on the injured list in 2024, he was well worth his $2MM salary to the Phillies, producing 0.7 FanGraphs WAR and 1.2 Baseball Reference WAR while helping the team to victory in 12 of the 17 games in which he appeared. In a poll last month, more MLBTR readers voted Turnbull as the top remaining free agent starter than either Gibson or Andrew Heaney. While it now seems unlikely that Turnbull will secure the one-year, $7MM contract MLBTR initially predicted, he surely deserves a major league roster spot for the upcoming campaign.

So, where might Turnbull find that roster spot? At this point in the year, most teams are happy to stick with their in-house rotation options. It makes sense. Those are the guys the catchers, coaching staff, and analytics department are familiar with and the guys each team has been working with all spring. That means someone like Gibson might be forced to wait for an injury to free up a rotation spot he can claim. Turnbull, however, proved he could hold his own in a long-relief capacity last season, which would make it easier for a team to sign him as rotation depth, even if that team does not immediately have a rotation spot available. As he did with the Phillies, Turnbull could join a team with the expectation of pitching out of the bullpen, and eventually, a starting opportunity would almost certainly arise. That flexibility, in addition to the lack of rumors surrounding Turnbull and the relatively low salary he will command, makes it very difficult to narrow down the field of potential landing spots.

Back in November, Tim Dierkes predicted Turnbull would sign with the Padres, Anthony Franco the Rockies, Darragh McDonald the Blue Jays, and Steve Adams the Twins. San Diego and Colorado still seem like possibilities; the Padres are short on rotation depth even after signing Nick Pivetta and Kyle Hart this winter, while Austin Gomber’s shoulder soreness should have the Rockies looking to add another arm. Toronto, on the other hand, already has some good rotation depth in the form of Bowden Francis or Yariel Rodríguez (whichever one does not make the Opening Day rotation). Meanwhile, Minnesota has former top prospects Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Louis Varland waiting in the wings, as well as Rule 5 draft pick Eiberson Castellano. The Twins have spent more than expected on free agents this winter, and it’s hard to think they’d be willing to spend any more on an area that is already a strength.

As for other potential suitors, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently reported that the Cardinals are considering adding a free agent reliever. While Turnbull isn’t a reliever, strictly speaking, he would likely be an upgrade over an arm like Gordon Graceffo, Kyle Leahy, or Chris Roycroft in a long-relief role. He would also offer depth to a rotation that lost both Gibson and Lance Lynn to free agency. Turnbull could come in especially handy if the Cardinals find a trade partner for one of their more expensive starters, such as Sonny Gray or Miles Mikolas, during the season.

The Guardians, Astros, Angels, White Sox, and Athletics are some more teams that could theoretically make room in their rotations. The Guardians are hoping to get some rotation upgrades midseason when Shane Bieber and John Means return from Tommy John, but they could use some help earlier in the year. RosterResource currently has Triston McKenzie (5.11 ERA, 5.34 SIERA in 20 starts from 2023-24) penciled in as their number five starter. The Astros also have several starters on the IL, leaving Hayden Wesneski, who has only made 22 starts in his career, as their most likely number five starter on Opening Day.

The Angels, arguably, have a complete rotation right now, but that’s only if they trust Reid Detmers in a regular role. The once-promising southpaw spent a significant portion of the 2024 season at Triple-A and pitched to a 6.70 ERA in 17 MLB starts. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s rotation is full of question marks after de facto “ace” Martín Pérez, but one might think they’d prefer to give as many opportunities as possible to the young arms within their organization. The Athletics are in a similar position.

One last team I would consider is the Mets. While they entered spring training with a surplus of starting pitching, their depth already looks thin after Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea both suffered injuries. Turnbull would likely be a depth upgrade over José Ureña, whom the Mets recently signed to a minor league deal.

So, where do MLBTR readers think Turnbull will ultimately wind up? Have your say in the poll below:

Where will Spencer Turnbull sign?
Mets 10.50% (342 votes)
Phillies 6.85% (223 votes)
Braves 6.14% (200 votes)
Padres 5.65% (184 votes)
Reds 5.50% (179 votes)
White Sox 5.50% (179 votes)
Orioles 5.25% (171 votes)
Yankees 5.04% (164 votes)
Angels 4.58% (149 votes)
Cardinals 4.12% (134 votes)
Tigers 3.99% (130 votes)
Athletics 3.53% (115 votes)
Guardians 3.01% (98 votes)
Pirates 2.92% (95 votes)
Brewers 2.73% (89 votes)
Rockies 2.58% (84 votes)
Blue Jays 2.36% (77 votes)
Cubs 2.15% (70 votes)
Twins 1.90% (62 votes)
Mariners 1.78% (58 votes)
Marlins 1.75% (57 votes)
Red Sox 1.72% (56 votes)
Dodgers 1.69% (55 votes)
Astros 1.60% (52 votes)
Giants 1.47% (48 votes)
Rangers 1.41% (46 votes)
Nationals 1.26% (41 votes)
Royals 1.20% (39 votes)
Rays 1.11% (36 votes)
Diamondbacks 0.71% (23 votes)
Total Votes: 3,256

Dodgers, Dave Roberts Making Progress In Extension Talks

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The Dodgers and longtime manager Dave Roberts are making progress on a new contract, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. Sherman writes that a deal is expected to be finalized before the team heads to Tokyo next week in preparation for their opening series against the Cubs.

According to Sherman, Roberts is likely to establish a new record for average annual value. That indicates he’ll beat the $8MM salary which Craig Counsell received on his five-year deal with the Cubs last winter. It’s unclear how long Roberts’ next deal will be. He’s currently slated to enter the final season of the three-year extension he signed in March 2022.

A deal has seemed to be a formality for months. The front office has unsurprisingly expressed interest in continuity on the heels of their second World Series within the last five years. Roberts said in early February that negotiations had just gotten underway. He indicated he was hopeful of getting a deal done but added that he wanted “to feel (his) value” on the contract terms. A record-setting deal should do just that.

Roberts has been at the helm in Los Angeles since November 2015. He’s the National League’s longest-tenured active manager. Kevin Cash, who is entering his 11th season in Tampa Bay, narrowly tops him in that regard overall. The Dodgers have made the playoffs in each of Roberts’ nine seasons. Only a 107-win season by the 2021 Giants kept L.A. from winning the NL West every year. Los Angeles had also won the NL West under Don Mattingly in each of the three years preceding Roberts’ hiring.

The 52-year-old Roberts has been fortunate to work with incredible rosters. Still, talent alone doesn’t guarantee success. No other team has made the playoffs in each of the last nine years. Dodger brass was comfortable enough with Roberts’ leadership skills to stick by him despite some criticism about his in-game tactics in the postseason early in his tenure. The veteran skipper adroitly handled a rotation that had been decimated by injury during last year’s World Series run.

Roberts has led the Dodgers to an 851-507 record in the regular season. No other skipper who has managed as many games has bested that 62.7% win percentage. Roberts has helmed the Dodgers to four pennants and a pair of championships. He won the NL Manager of the Year award in 2016.

Justin Turner, Jerry Dipoto Discuss State Of Mariners

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There seems to be a great deal of frustration surrounding the Mariners, which isn’t limited to the fanbase. Former Mariner Justin Turner sounded off on the situation to Bob Nightengale of USA Today yesterday, blasting the organization for its lack of aggression. That column led to Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times seeking the response of various players, who kept themselves anonymous. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto also spoke about the state of the franchise to Sam Blum of The Athletic in a piece published today, though the piece didn’t reference Turner’s comments or the USA Today piece and said the Dipoto interview actually took place “earlier” this spring.

“The fact that they missed the playoffs by one game, and didn’t go out and add an impact bat or two when you have the best pitching staff in baseball,” Turner said to Nightengale, “just seems absurd to me.”

The Mariners went 85-77 last year, a solid season and their fourth straight above .500. But as Turner mentioned, they narrowly missed the playoffs, just as they did in 2021 and 2023. Their postseason appearance in 2022 is their only one since 2001. Their decent-but-underwhelming results last year were the result of an imbalanced team. Their 3.49 earned run average was tied with Atlanta for best in the league. The starting staff’s 3.38 ERA was best in the majors. But the offense was more middling, with a .224/.311/.376 batting line as a club.

The club surely would have loved to add more offense but didn’t have significant resources to do so. Reporting throughout the winter indicated that the Mariners were going to increase payroll by around $15MM relative to last year. Cot’s Baseball Contracts estimated their Opening Day payroll at $140MM. RosterResource projects them to go into 2025 at $152MM, a $12MM increase. Their free agent signings this winter have been a $3.5MM deal for Donovan Solano, a 37-year-old infielder, and bringing back Jorge Polanco. The M’s turned down a $12MM club option on Polanco, opting for the $750K buyout, but re-signed him via a one-year, $7.75MM deal with a player/vesting option.

Generally speaking, the club hasn’t been a big player in free agency. Cot’s hasn’t had the club’s payroll higher than 11th in the league in any of the past 15 seasons. They’ve been in the bottom half of the league in each of the past five years. In the past decade, they have only twice given a free agent a guarantee larger than $24MM. Yusei Kikuchi got a four-year, $56MM deal back in 2019, though he opted out after three years. Robbie Ray got a five-year, $115MM deal but was traded to the Giants after two years.

Turner was acquired from the Blue Jays at last year’s deadline and finished the year with the Mariners. According to Divish, the club offered him a deal to return, with the guarantee larger than the $6MM pact he eventually accepted from the Cubs. At the time of the offer from the M’s, Turner seemingly felt he could do better and didn’t accept, which prompted the M’s to pivot to Solano and Polanco.

Turner made clear that his criticism wasn’t mere sour grapes about not being re-signed. “Honestly, as much as I wanted to be back there,” Turner said to Nightengale, “if I was the only piece they brought back in, I would be saying the same thing: What the hell are we doing? Are you trying? There’s not going to a better time to go for it. So, I don’t know what they’re doing. I’m very confused. It’s a head-scratcher for me.”

Ultimately, the criticism is mostly geared towards ownership and the lack of resources it has provided to the front office. “I thought [Pete] Alonso was a slam-dunk,” Turner said. “How can you not go after him? You kidding me?” But Alonso re-signed with the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal. He will get $30MM of that in the first year, which is double what the Mariners had to work with this winter. Turner emphasized that he didn’t hold Dipoto responsible for the parameters he was given.

“I think Jerry catches a bad rap for a lot of these trades and how crazy some of these trades have been,” Turner said. “But now being a part of it, I kind of understand. He doesn’t have any money to spend, so he’s got to create money. Like, OK, is it really Jerry’s fault?” Turner then referenced the 2021 trade wherein the M’s sent Kendall Graveman to the Astros for Abraham Toro, saying he “probably needed to trade guys just to be able to spend money in the offseason, which is nuts.”

Turner also expressed sympathy for the club’s frustrated supporters who are caught up in the situation. “I feel for them. They’ve got great fans. Their fans are amazing. They want to win so bad. The team is very profitable. And they don’t spend.”

It’s perhaps illustrative of a level of discontent that exists in the Seattle clubhouse but doesn’t always come out. Catcher Cal Raleigh expressed some frustration after the club’s disappointing 2023 season finished, though he later apologized. “We’ve got to commit to winning,” Raleigh said at that time, “to going and getting those players. You see other teams going out, going for it, getting big-time pitchers, getting big-time hitters. We have to do that to keep up.”

Turner is no longer in the organization and is also 40 years old, meaning he doesn’t have to fear any negative repercussions for speaking out. The incumbent Mariners who spoke to Divish refrained from going on the record but seemed to largely agree with Turner’s points.

Though the player frustration seemed to be largely pointed at ownership, many Seattle fans have their frustrations with Dipoto. His now-infamous “54%” comments from October of 2023 are sort of legendary among his haters. For those unfamiliar, after the club just missed the playoffs in October of 2023, Dipoto said that “teams that win 54 percent of the time always wind up in the postseason and they more often than not wind up in a World Series. … Nobody wants to hear ‘the goal this year is we’re going to win 54 percent of the time.’ But over time that type of mindset gets you there.”

Blum asked him about those comments and his general ability to speak in a manner that seems to rub people the wrong way. “People obviously didn’t understand it the way I expressed it,” Dipoto said. “My guess is that 98 percent of people didn’t actually listen to it. They just read it off a tweet. It’s what it is. Maybe they wouldn’t have understood it any better had they heard the whole thing. And that’s on me for poorly communicating what I think is a simple idea.”

Dipoto says he has scaled back his media appearances since he’s aware that he’s become something of a lightning rod. “Truly, I could say ‘hello,’” Dipoto said, “and it would turn into a thing right now.” He also expressed to Blum that the very interviewing he was giving would probably not be well received. “I’m gonna get roasted,” he said to Blum.

He did somewhat attempt to frame the lack of spending as a strategy, saying that most great teams have been “built on a foundation of draft, sign, develop or trade. That’s what we’ve communicated to our fans for a decade.” Though at the same time, he also said he’s aware there’s a desire for “The big move. The grand slam. The big free agent.” and that “maybe that’ll happen at some point” but they “didn’t think this was the right time, or the right group of players that fit for us.”

Regardless of how one feels about it, the club is largely banking on the Seattle lineup continuing a strong finish to the 2024 season. The club acquired both Turner and Randy Arozarena at the deadline last year. A few weeks later, they fired manager Scott Servais and hitting coach Jarret DeHart. Servais was replaced by Dan Wilson while Edgar Martínez took over as hitting coach. Martínez is still with the club but with the title of senior director, hitting strategy. He’s not expected to go on road trips, with Kevin Seitzer now to be the club’s primary hitting coach, though he will apparently report to Martínez.

For what it’s worth, the M’s hit .264/.347/.433 in the month of September. That translated to a 128 wRC+ for that month, a mark that trailed only the Dodgers. That was a huge upgrade over the .216/.304/.364 they hit from March to August. We’re talking about just one month, and some of Seattle’s opponents were out of contention and playing out the string. But if there was any meaningful improvement in there that the M’s could carry over, they could be in a better position than last year. If not, it could lead to another offseason of frustration in Seattle.

Mets Outright Sean Reid-Foley

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March 6: The Mets announced that Reid-Foley has been outrighted to Triple-A, indicating he cleared waivers. He is no longer on the 40-man roster.

March 4: The Mets have placed right-hander Sean Reid-Foley on outright waivers, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. At this point, there’s nothing to suggest that the righty has been designated for assignment, so he seems to still be on the 40-man roster. If he goes unclaimed, the Mets could choose to outright him off the roster and open a spot. However, the waivers are not revocable, so he’ll join another club if he is claimed.

Clubs are allowed to place players on waivers without immediately removing them from the 40-man roster. It’s fairly rare that this actually happens, though the Rockies did it with Justin Lawrence just a few days ago. In that instance, the Rockies lost Lawrence when the Pirates put in a claim.

Reid-Foley, 29, has appeared in each of the past seven major league seasons. However, health has prevented him from taking on any kind of meaningful workload of late. He has never been able to throw 34 innings in a big league season. He twice got over 30 frames but hasn’t done so since 2019.

From 2018 to 2020, he served as an up-and-down depth arm for the Blue Jays. He got over 30 innings in the first two of those seasons but spent most of the shortened campaign on optional assignment. In total, he logged 71 2/3 innings with a 4.40 earned run average.

He was flipped to the Mets as part of the January 2021 trade that sent Steven Matz to Toronto. Reid-Foley logged 20 2/3 innings for the Mets that year with a 5.23 ERA but his 28.3% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate made for an intriguing combo. Unfortunately, some elbow inflammation sent him to the injured list that year. He avoided the surgeon’s table for a while but eventually required Tommy John in May of 2022.

He was non-tendered after that season but re-signed with the Mets via a minor league deal going into 2023. He was selected back to the roster late that year and kept his roster spot into 2024. Last year, he was placed on the injured list multiple times due to right shoulder impingements. Around those IL stints, he tossed 21 2/3 innings with a 1.66 ERA and 27.8% strikeout rate but a very high walk rate of 15.6%. He got a bit of help from a .255 batting average on balls in play and 63% strand rate. His 2.80 FIP and 3.98 SIERA were still good numbers but point to that ERA being unsustainable.

Control issues aren’t new for Reid-Foley, who now has a 14.2% walk rate in his career. Perhaps that’s due to the stop-and-start nature of his career, working around those injuries, but it’s been an ongoing theme nevertheless.

The Mets tendered Reid-Foley an arbitration contract this winter, agreeing to a salary of $800K. The righty has at least three years of service time, meaning he would have the right to elect free agency if he clears waivers and is outrighted. However, since he has less than five years of service, he would have to forfeit that salary in doing so.

Perhaps the Mets are hoping Reid-Foley will clear waivers and accept his assignment in order to keep that salary in place, which would allow them to open a roster spot and keep some depth in a non-roster capacity. But by putting him on waivers, they are risking losing him to another club. The health and the walks are a concern but some teams might be interested in his 28.8% strikeout rate since joining the Mets. Reid-Foley is out of options, but he can theoretically be controlled via arbitration through 2027.

Tyler Naquin Converting To Pitching, Signs Minor League Deal With Guardians

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The Guardians announced that they have signed Tyler Naquin to a minor league contract, but that the longtime big league outfielder is attempting to move to the mound and is reporting as a right-handed pitcher.

Naquin, 34 in April, appeared in each big league season from 2016 to 2023. Most of that was with Cleveland, though he later went to the Reds, Mets and White Sox. Over those eight seasons, he got into 562 games, hitting 61 home runs and slashing .263/.316/.445 for a 101 wRC+. He spent most of 2023 in the minors, getting into just five big league games for the White Sox as the season was winding down. He didn’t sign anywhere for the 2024 campaign.

With his career as an outfielder seemingly stalled out, Naquin will try a late-career move to the mound. It’s a tough trick to pull off, but the Guardians have had one other such convert in the system in recent years. Anthony Gose is also an outfielder-turned-pitcher. He saw some action for the Guardians over the 2021-24 stretch, missing 2023 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He was outrighted off the roster in September and is now with the Mets on a minor league deal.

Naquin’s arm strength was an asset during his career. In 2020, when Statcast first started ranking arm strength, Naquin ranked in the 99th percentile. He dropped to the 98th and 94th percentile respectively over the next two seasons, but still quite a respectable position. He had 32 outfield assists in his career.

Whether he can harness that into effective results on the mound is anyone’s guess. For the Guardians, there’s no harm in bringing him aboard via a minor league deal to see how it goes. For the fans, it’s a fun and unique story involving a familiar face.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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The Nationals made a few acquisitions, most notably with a trade for their new first baseman. They eschewed any investments longer than two years. They're probably still a season away from pulling out of the rebuild. If they take a step forward from last season's 71 wins, they should be positioned for a much more aggressive winter going into 2026.

Major League Signings

2025 spending: $38.5MM ($4MM deferred)
Total spending: $47.5MM

Option Decisions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

The Nationals finished 71-91 last season, their second straight year landing 20 games under .500. Still, they feel closer to contention than they did 12 months ago. Top outfield prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews made it to the big leagues. The middle infield tandem of CJ Abrams and Luis García Jr. each took steps forward, even if Abrams' season ended with an unceremonious disciplinary demotion. Center fielder Jacob Young had a nice season headlined by Gold Glove-caliber defense. A controllable rotation group of MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz pitched reasonably well.

One can start to see the light at the end of the five-year rebuild. Yet the Nationals entered the offseason with a handful of huge holes. GM Mike Rizzo said in September that the front office was looking to add one or two middle-of-the-order bats. The Nats got very little from their corner infield or designated hitter positions, making those obvious target areas. They're still lacking a true top-of-the-rotation starter, nor did they have much in the way of middle relief depth.

They didn't fix all of it. There was never much hope of ownership allowing the front office to jump back in on Juan Soto. They seemingly didn't look at the top of the rotation market, uninterested in making a $200MM+ investment for Corbin Burnes or Max Fried. While they technically did add two middle-of-the-order hitters, they weren't on significant free agent splashes. The Nationals showed some interest in Christian Walker and made sense as an on-paper fit for Pete Alonso, but they ended up taking a volume approach to free agency.

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