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NL Central Links: Votto, Reds, Nova, Schoop, Brewers

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By Joey Votto’s lofty standards, batting .284/.417/.419 counts as a down year, and the Reds first baseman tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he is aiming for a return to form in 2019.  Votto plans to refocus on his hitting during his offseason preparations, while also putting a greater emphasis on conditioning.  “It’s not like I dogged it or anything, but there are levels to it,” Votto said.  “If I was 99 percent ready, to be at your very best you need to be at 99.9 percent. I would never have once come into Spring Training and a Major League season without feeling like I’m ready. There are really extremes. I do feel like that’s something I fell short on.”  While Votto still led the league in his OBP, his power dropoff was pronounced, as he posted the lowest full-season slugging percentage, isolated power, and home run numbers of his career.  Votto has been a remarkably productive and consistent player over his career, though since he did just turn 35 in September, so some manner of decline wouldn’t be a surprise going forward, assuming Votto doesn’t get things figured out this winter.

More from around the NL Central…

  • The Reds have some extra payroll to spend and they’ve been linked to several available pitchers this winter, though president of baseball operations Dick Williams threw a bit of cold water on the many rumors swirling around this team thus far in the offseason.  Speaking to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer and other reporters at the Redsfest fan event, Williams said that “the reports as a whole I’ve been surprised by how inaccurate they’ve been. They’ve taken us by surprise because they were so off base.  I’m not going to comment on which ones they were. I’ll just caution that in general that those statements on a guy we’re in on or not in on….I just don’t know where that comes from.”  Free agents and trade targets ranging from Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, Patrick Corbin, Sonny Gray, and (before he was dealt to the Yankees) James Paxton have all reportedly drawn some interest from Cincinnati.
  • Pirates right-hander Ivan Nova has changed agents and is now being represented by the Wasserman agency, The Athletic’s Robert Murray tweets.  Nova is entering the last season of a three-year, $26MM free agent deal he signed in the 2016-17 offseason, and the righty has been solid over the first two-thirds of that contract, posting a 4.16 ERA, 6.3 K/9, and 3.45 K/BB rate over 348 innings for the Bucs.  Similar numbers in 2019 would put Nova in line for another multi-year deal, though he will be 33 years old by Opening Day 2020.
  • The Brewers’ ill-fated midseason acquisition of Jonathan Schoop was summed up by GM David Stearns “as a bad deal and that’s on me,” as Stearns said during a phone call with reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) on Friday.  Stearns surrendered some notable talent to the Orioles in order to land Schoop, who hit just .202/.246/.331 with four home runs over 134 PA as a Brewer, plus an 0-for-8 showing in the postseason.  Between this poor performance and Schoop’s projected $10.1MM salary in 2019 through the arbitration process, the Brewers chose to non-tender the second baseman on Friday.  Milwaukee did reach agreements with infielders Tyler Saladino and Hernan Perez, each of whom Stearns mentions as possible options for second base, though the team will no doubt explore external options via trades and free agency in the coming weeks.  Travis Shaw played some second base down the stretch once the Brewers acquired Mike Moustakas, and while Stearns noted that Shaw’s versatility “is a nice asset to have” in regards to the team’s offseason options, reinstalling Shaw as the everyday third baseman is the team’s “default scenario.”

Reaction & Analysis: The Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz Trade

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The blockbuster seven-player trade between the Mets and Mariners is on the verge of being finalized, and an official announcement could come as early as Monday.  Since the initial news about this trade first began to break last Thursday, however, there has already been quite a bit of discussion from various pundits about what this major swap means for both franchises.  Here’s the round-up of some of the many takes on the trade, which reportedly consists of Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, and $20MM in cash considerations going to the Mets, while the Mariners receive Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, former first-round draft picks Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn, and righty pitching prospect Gerson Bautista.

  • As noted by both The Athletic’s Tim Britton and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscriptions required for both), the Mets paid a hefty price to upgrade themselves at second base and closer during an offseason when several other options at both positions were available in free agency at a lower cost.  Olney suggests that New York could’ve kept Jeff McNeil at second base and signed a closer like David Robertson or Jeurys Familia, which would’ve kept Kelenic/Dunn/Bautista in the farm system and left more money for the Mets to spend on other needs.  “Given the particulars of the trade and the market context, the core question for the Mets in this deal is this: Do they think the quality difference in 70 innings of Diaz vs. 70 innings of a Robertson or Jeurys Familia is worth taking on $60MM of Cano money and swapping two of their top 10 prospects,” Olney asks.  More than one rival evaluator mentioned to Olney that while Diaz is controllable for four years, Diaz’s large save totals will give him a costly arbitration price tag right away when he first becomes arb-eligible next winter.
  • The Mets also could’ve given up less prospect depth, Britton observes, by taking on more of Cano’s salary.  Regardless, the trade is hard to properly evaluate until we see how “the money saved in this move gets reinvested in the major league roster,” as Britton puts it.
  • More moves are definitely necessary for the Mets, ESPN.com’s Keith Law opines (subscription required), since Cano and Diaz alone won’t turn New York into a contender.  That’s even assuming Cano and Diaz continue to produce as they did in 2018, which is no guarantee given Cano’s age and the general year-to-year volatility of many relievers, even arms as dominant as Diaz was last season.  “This had to be Mets fans’ worst nightmare: The owners, who seemingly can’t stop meddling in baseball operations, would hire someone as GM who’d short-circuit the ongoing rebuilding of the farm system in pursuit of short-term wins,” Law writes.  He also gives his take on the three youngsters heading to Seattle, and believes the Mariners are doing a good job of adding talent to a minor league pipeline that was very short on premium prospects.
  • Brodie Van Wagenen came into the Mets’ GM job intent on building a contender for 2019, and his pursuit of this goal has drawn praise from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who contrasts Van Wagenen’s plans with the now-common occurrence of a new general manager immediately beginning a rebuild upon taking a job.  The Cano trade is “the kind of bold, daring move that used to dominate the baseball landscape, before GMs were more worried about preserving their job security than taking risks….Imagine, a team actually spending money, taking a genuine risk, and trying to win a World Series without worrying about hoarding prospects,” Nightengale writes.  In regards to Cano’s ability to stay productive into his late 30’s and early 40’s, Nightengale adds the interesting observation that a DH role could still be in his future, should the National League adopt a designated hitter in the next collective bargaining agreement (the current CBA ends after the 2021 season).
  • The Athletic’s Jim Bowden (subscription required) grades the deal as a B for the Mariners and a C for the Mets, noting that Seattle looks to be the long-term winner if Kelenic and Dunn develop into quality big league regulars.
  • This deal, and the trades of James Paxton and Mike Zunino earlier this offseason, netted eight new minor leaguers for the Mariners, or $78MM in asset value to Seattle’s farm system, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen calculates (based on the prospect valuation system used by Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards).  The M’s previously ranked at the bottom of these prospect value rankings, though their moves have now moved them to around the middle of the pack, with Longenhagen’s caveat that this rating could certainly fluctuate based on what the Mariners or other teams do in the rest of the offseason.

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Machado, Mets, Braves, Rays

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This week in baseball blogs…

Submissions: ZachBBWI @gmail.com

AL Notes: M’s, Seager, Yanks, Sanchez, Tribe, Bauer

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The latest from the American League…

  • If the trade-happy Mariners have their way, third baseman Kyle Seager will be the next veteran to depart. The club’s willing to do “whatever it takes” to deal Seager, Buster Olney of ESPN writes (subscription required). Long one of the majors’ most underrated players, the 31-year-old Seager is coming off an uncharacteristically rough season and still has a guaranteed $57MM left on his contract. Seager’s presence is no longer needed in Seattle, which is rebuilding and trying to cut payroll, though it could be difficult to deal him on the heels of such a disappointing campaign. With that in mind, Olney suggests the Mariners could either swap Seager for another team’s unwanted contract or package him with one of their best remaining assets (Mitch Haniger or Jean Segura) to get his money off the books.
  • Like Seager, Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez endured a surprisingly poor season in 2018. However, Sanchez is “not for sale,” general manager Brian Cashman tells Jack Curry of the YES Network (video link). The Yankees expect to be “proven correct” that Sanchez is a franchise catcher, per Cashman, who has consistently defended the 26-year-old in recent months. So, although Sanchez has come up in trade rumors as recently as this week, it appears he’ll stay put.
  • Indians right-hander Trevor Bauer is another offseason trade candidate, but he explained to MLB Network this week that it wouldn’t make sense for the Tribe to deal him now. “There’s a lot of reasons I think that [the Indians should not trade me],” Bauer said (via Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com). “Ultimately, I think the surplus value on me this year is just way too high. Even with an arbitration raise, you’re probably talking about $15 to $20 million of surplus value.” Bauer added that it would be more logical for the Indians to move him a year from now, when his price will rise and he’ll be just one year from reaching free agency. The 27-year-old provided oodles of surplus value to the Indians in 2018, when he logged an amazing 2.21 ERA/2.44 FIP over 175 1/3 innings for a little more than $6.5MM. He’s projected to earn another reasonable salary – $11.6MM – in 2019.

NL East Notes: Nats, Rendon, Suzuki, Mets, Ramos

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Nationals superstar Anthony Rendon is slated to enter a contract year in 2019, but he told Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post and other reporters Sunday that he’s “up for” signing an extension. The third baseman revealed that he and the Nats have been discussing an extension for a year, adding that while he hopes to remain in Washington, he’d be content to enter next season without a new contract. The 28-year-old Rendon continued to make a case for a mega-deal in 2018, as he finished top 10 in both position player fWAR (eighth) and wRC+ (10th).

Here’s more from Washington and one of its division rivals:

  • The Mets are hesitant to go after ex-Nat Wilson Ramos, one of the top two free-agent catchers available, because of concerns over his defense and injury issues, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. New York’s “prioritizing” behind-the-plate defense and putting an extra emphasis on pitch framing, Puma adds. Baseball Prospectus has typically awarded Ramos positive pitch-framing and defense marks, though going by its Fielding Runs Above Average metric, he has been a scratch or minus defender for three straight seasons. Ramos has also torn his right ACL twice, including in 2016, which limited him to 64 games in 2017 as he worked his way back. However, Ramos did catch 96 games last season – 92 more than oft-injured Mets backstop Travis d’Arnaud, whom they tendered a contract Friday. Of course, Ramos is sure to require a pricey multiyear commitment, whereas d’Arnaud’s essentially set to play under a one-year deal worth a projected $3.7M.
  • Keith Law of ESPN (subscription link) applauds Washington’s acquisition of catcher Yan Gomes from Cleveland, writing that the Nationals made a sizable improvement behind the plate without surrendering much. Having Gomes instead of 2018 starter Matt Wieters as their primary catcher could mean at least a four-win upgrade next year, Law posits. Law goes on to assess outfielder Daniel Johnson and right-hander Jefry Rodriguez – whom the Indians received for Gomes – in detail, noting that the former just endured a disappointing, injury-shortened season and the latter may only max out as a righty specialist in the majors. But Law explains that there’s hope for Indians catcher Eric Haase, who may succeed Gomes as their main backstop.
  • Between Gomes and free-agent signing Kurt Suzuki, the Nationals have made a pair of noteworthy additions at catcher in the past couple weeks. Although, as Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post notes, it’s not yet clear how the Nats will divvy up playing time between the two next season. GM Mike Rizzo suggested Saturday that he’d leave it up to manager Dave Martinez, who declared that “they’re both going to split time.” Rizzo added that Suzuki could see action at first base, where he has never appeared in a major league game. Regardless, Suzuki’s “totally on board” with the Gomes pickup, per Rizzo.

Blue Jays Reportedly Interested In Dallas Keuchel

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11:24am: Toronto’s likely not a real threat to sign Keuchel, suggests Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, who expects the club to shop for lower-tier free-agent starters.

9:40am: As the most accomplished starting pitcher available in free agency, left-hander Dallas Keuchel has unsurprisingly drawn plenty of attention this offseason. Count the Blue Jays among the teams with interest in him, Jon Heyman of Fancred reports.

Starting pitching is a concern for the Blue Jays, whose rotation ranked an atrocious 28th in ERA and an unimpressive 21st in fWAR in 2018. That included a solid 114 innings from lefty J.A. Happ, whom the Blue Jays traded over the summer and now have interest in bringing back in free agency.

As things stand, the most established starters remaining in Toronto are Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Sam Gaviglio and Ryan Borucki – a quartet that, with the exception of Borucki, struggled to prevent runs last season. Moreover, Stroman and Sanchez, despite the immense promise they’ve shown at times, have come up in trade speculation this offseason. Even if the Jays do keep them heading into next year, their control over the pair is dwindling, as both Stroman and Sanchez are only arbitration eligible through 2020.

While the Jays’ No. 1 and 2 starters are controllable for just two more seasons, it may take a contract at least twice that long to reel in the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel. The career-long Astro is in line for a four-year, $82MM deal, MLBTR predicts. Whether the Jays would be well-served by making such a commitment is debatable. Toronto may have trouble pushing for a playoff spot during the very early portion of Keuchel’s deal, after all, as general manager Ross Atkins has suggested the team’s realistically hoping to return to contention in 2020 or ’21. In the meantime, the club should continue to have its hands full in a division led by the world champion Red Sox, the title-contending Yankees and the up-and-coming Rays.

Keuchel’s age, his status as a qualifying offer recipient and the Jays’ current state seem to make the two an imperfect match, though they may earnestly pursue the former AL Cy Young Award winner if they believe he’ll avoid a sharp decline. Keuchel’s run prevention, strikeout, groundball and swing-and-miss numbers dipped last year in comparison to his best seasons, but he remained a formidable producer. Further, Keuchel has never been one to rely on velocity or post gaudy strikeout numbers, and has instead leaned on his exceptional ability to induce weak contact. Keuchel’s big-talking agent, Scott Boras, plans to take advantage of that, having announced that he’s selling his client as the “soft-contact genius of his era.”

A.J. Pollock Reportedly Seeking Deal In $80MM Neighborhood

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In each of the previous two offseasons, the top-ranked free-agent center fielder available inked a deal worth at least $80MM. The Cardinals made a five-year, $82.5MM commitment to Dexter Fowler heading into 2017, and the Brewers followed suit by awarding Lorenzo Cain a five-year, $80MM guarantee last offseason. If A.J. Pollock has his way, he’ll rake in a similar payday this winter. The longtime Diamondback is seeking a contract in the vicinity of the Fowler and Cain pacts, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets.

It’s no surprise that Pollock is aiming high early in free agency, especially considering the lack of center field alternatives available on either the open or trade market. Nevertheless, Pollock’s asking price may be rather ambitious, with MLBTR predicting he’ll land a four-year, $60MM guarantee and FanGraphs projecting a three-year, $54MM deal.

It’s true that Pollock has generally been a good to excellent performer throughout his career, which began in earnest in 2013. However, injuries have been an all-too-common occurrence for Pollock, who missed 87 games in 2014, 150 in 2016, 50 in 2017 and 49 last season. Further, youth isn’t necessarily on Pollock’s side (he’ll turn 31 on Dec. 6), and because he rejected a qualifying offer from Arizona, signing him would cost a team more than just a truckload of cash. For their part, the Diamondbacks are likely rooting for Pollock to achieve his big-money goal if he doesn’t re-sign with them. Should Pollock go elsewhere for upward of $50MM, it would greatly increase the compensation the D-backs would receive.

To this point, only the Astros have been linked to Pollock on MLBTR’s pages since free agency opened, though Nightengale writes that he’s drawing “plenty of interest.” Aside from the Astros, potential fits could include the Giants, White Sox, Cubs, Mets, Indians and Phillies, among others.

The team that signs Pollock will be landing a valuable player who has totaled between 2.3 fWAR and 6.8 fWAR in five seasons, despite his injury woes. The right-handed hitter posted 2.5 fWAR in 460 plate appearances last season, when he slashed .257/.316/.484 (110 wRC+) with a career-high 21 home runs, a personal-best .228 ISO and 13 stolen bases on 15 tries. Those are impressive numbers, but they pale in comparison to Pollock’s offensive production from his 2014-15 heyday, and he’s now coming off a season in which he registered career-worst chase, swinging-strike, strikeout and contact rates. Meanwhile, Pollock did earn mostly solid marks in center field – which has been the case throughout his time in the majors – with six Defensive Runs Saved, six Outs Above Average and a minus-0.7 Ultimate Zone Rating.

On a per-PA basis, Pollock’s career has been better than Fowler’s when he got to the market and similar to Cain’s when he hit free agency. It’s easy to see why Pollock is likely to collect an appreciable raise in the coming weeks, then. Still, Pollock’s longstanding injury issues figure to prevent him from approaching the contracts Fowler and Cain received.

AL East News & Rumors: BoSox, Robertson, Yanks, Miller, Rays, O’s

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It may take a three-year commitment to sign free-agent reliever David Robertson this offseason, but “the Red Sox are in for less,” a source tells George A. King III of the New York Post. Considering Robertson’s a Rhode Island resident who’d prefer to pitch in the Northeast, where he has spent most of his career, he looks like a logical fit for a Boston team which could lose Craig Kimbrel and Joe Kelly in free agency. However, if the Red Sox are only willing to hand Robertson a one- or two-year contract, a union between them and the longtime Yankee may not be in the cards.

Here’s more from the American League East:

  • With both Robertson and Zach Britton on the open market, the Yankees have one of their ex-relievers, free-agent left-hander Andrew Miller, on their “radar,” per King. In 2014, the last time Miller was a free agent, he signed a four-year, $36MM deal with the Yankees. That proved to be a shrewd investment for the Yanks, who received brilliant production from Miller before trading him to Cleveland in a 2016 swap in which New York acquired Clint Frazier and Justus Sheffield (the latter was just dealt to Seattle for high-end starter James Paxton). Miller stood out for most of his time with the Indians, including during their run to a World Series berth in 2016, but the 33-year-old is now fresh off an injury-shortened season in which his numbers fell off.
  • The Athletics are making headway toward a new ballpark in their city, but the same isn’t true for the Rays, as Charlie Frago and Christopher O’Donnell of the Tampa Bay Times detail. While the Rays and officials in Hillsborough County, Fla., had been hoping to debut an $892MM ballpark in the Ybor City neighborhood of Tampa Bay in 2023, an agreement isn’t imminent as the Dec. 31 deadline looms, Frago and O’Donnell report. Consequently, the Rays may not move to a new stadium until 2024 or later. They’ve called the much-derided Tropicana Field home since they began play in 1998.
  • It appears Brady Anderson, a prominent member of the Orioles’ previous front office, will stay in the fold under rookie general manager Mike Elias, according to Dan Connolly of The Athletic (subscription required). Not only that, but it seems Anderson – currently Baltimore’s vice president of baseball operations – will continue to serve in a major role, Connolly relays. Elias spoke highly of Anderson in an interview with Buster Olney of ESPN this week, saying (via Connolly): “He’s very smart, he’s very capable, and, most of all, he has a very deep love for this franchise. So, I’m looking forward to working with him.”

Mets, Indians Have Discussed Corey Kluber

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Having already swung one blockbuster trade this offseason, the Mets may have further headline-grabbing deals in mind. It appears they have interest in Indians ace Corey Kluber, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, who reports that the two teams have discussed the right-hander.

The Mets are one of several teams reportedly eyeing Kluber, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner whose name has been prominent in rumors for a month. The fact that Kluber’s on the Mets’ radar is especially fascinating given that the future of one of their aces, righty Noah Syndergaard, is up in the air.

While New York may be attempting to build a dominant rotation led by Jacob deGrom, Kluber and Syndergaard, Feinsand notes it’s possible they could end up dealing Syndergaard and then acquiring Kluber in a separate trade. Swapping out Syndergaard for Kluber would seemingly be a near-term upgrade, though the latter is far older and pricier than the former. The 26-year-old Syndergaard has three arbitration-eligible campaigns remaining and will only make a projected $5.9MM next season, while the soon-to-be 33-year-old Kluber will earn $17MM in 2019 – also his third-last year of control.

For Cleveland, trading Kluber would be an obvious blow to its pitching staff, though a deal could come to fruition if it enables the team to pick up immediate help and cut payroll. If the Indians would indeed want controllable, young major leaguers for Kluber, then Syndergaard, outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto, and second baseman Jeff McNeil look like the most logical fits from the Mets’ roster. All four are under control through at least 2021 and would seemingly help keep a Kluber-less Indians team strong in 2019.

Aside from that quartet, it doesn’t appear the rest of the Mets’ roster or their prospect pool is teeming with ideal pieces to pry Kluber out of Cleveland. Baseball America ranked the Mets’ farm an uninspiring 19th in the game even before they agreed to trade a pair of their best prospects, outfielder Jarred Kelenic and righty Justin Dunn, to Seattle in a package for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. The Mets do still have two of the outlet’s top-1oo prospects, however, in shortstop Andres Gimenez (No. 53) and first baseman Peter Alonso (No. 72).

While it’s unknown how serious the Mets are about Kluber, it’s fair to say they’re positioning themselves as one of this offseason’s most interesting teams to watch. General manager Brodie Van Wagenen has been a polarizing presence in his first few weeks as an executive, but it’s clear he’s willing to make bold moves in an effort to improve a New York club coming off back-to-back sub-.500 seasons.

NL East Rumors: Fish, Realmuto, Braves, Keuchel, Phils, M’s

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A few National League East-themed rumblings…

  • The Braves reunited with catcher Brian McCann in free agency Wednesday, giving them a decent behind-the-plate tandem with him and Tyler Flowers. Atlanta’s not necessarily out of the sweepstakes for Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, though, as Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week (subscription link). It appears Miami would need to significantly lower its asking price in order for Realmuto to join the NL East rival Braves, however. Per Rosenthal, the Marlins requested second baseman Ozzie Albies and more from the Braves in the teams’ discussions. Unsurprisingly, the Braves haven’t been willing to part with the 21-year-old Albies, who turned in a 3.8-fWAR rookie campaign in 2018 and is under wraps for the foreseeable future, for two seasons of control over Realmuto, 27.
  • Sticking with the Braves, free-agent left-hander Dallas Keuchel is “high on their wish list,” Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. Keuchel rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in favor of reaching the open market, but because the Braves received revenue sharing and didn’t exceed the competitive balance tax in 2018, they’d only lose their third-highest draft pick in signing him. While Keuchel does figure to ink one of the richest contracts in this winter’s free-agent class, the Braves may have the money to reel him in, even after committing a combined $25MM to McCann and Josh Donaldson this week. Atlanta has plenty of young starting pitching on hand, but it’s arguably in need of a quality veteran starter like the soon-to-be 31-year-old Keuchel – especially with integral 2018 contributor Anibal Sanchez now a free agent and Julio Teheran looking like a potential trade chip.
  • More from Rosenthal, who tweets that the Mariners have shown interest in Phillies shortstop J.P. Crawford in the clubs’ talks centering on Seattle’s Jean Segura. Acquiring Segura wouldn’t take the Phillies out of the running for free-agent shortstop/third baseman Manny Machado, Rosenthal adds. If the Phillies were to land both, they’d use Segura at short and Machado at third, according to Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. Although, considering Machado has made it known he prefers shortstop, Salisbury notes that it’s unclear whether Philadelphia would be able to sell him on the hot corner – where he has spent the majority of his career. As for Crawford, he’s young (24 in January), affordable and controllable for a while, making him a fit for the rebuilding Mariners in those respects. Crawford hasn’t lived up to the elite prospect billing he once had, however. Across 138 major league plate appearances last season, Crawford turned in a passable batting line (.214/.319/.393 – good for a 96 wRC+), though he also posted subpar defensive numbers (minus-6 DRS, minus-3.4 UZR) in 229 innings at short.

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