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MLB Mailbag: Dodgers, Cardinals, Yankees

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This week's mailbag delves into the Dodgers' rotation for 2025, the likelihood of Cody Bellinger opting out, the Cardinals' reset, the Yankees' infield, and much more.

Ben asks:

I'm curious as to how you expect the Dodgers to address their rotation this offseason. The team is laden with talented starters, yet the number of injuries is astounding. Do you expect the team to continue adopting a high-risk, high-reward approach? Will we see them sign a low upside inning-eater or two as insurance? How likely is a reunion with Buehler, and what might the season-opening rotation look like?

When I consider  Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I wouldn't say he had a higher injury risk than any other top starter the Dodgers could've gotten.  Nor was Trevor Bauer high-risk, healthwise.  Brandon McCarthy, Scott Kazmir, and Rich Hill were high injury risk three or four-year deals, but those were eight to ten years ago.

Otherwise, Andrew Friedman has generally gone for one-year starting pitcher deals in free agency: James Paxton, Noah Syndergaard, Tyler Anderson, and Andrew Heaney in recent years.  Trade pickups have included Alex Wood, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Glasnow.

I don't know that I see a pattern there, other than eschewing long-term free agent deals for less youthful pitchers.  For example, if Max Fried is going to sign for five or six years, I don't expect the Dodgers to do that.  Innings eaters have not really been Friedman's thing, with the possible exception of Tyler Anderson coming off a 167-inning campaign.

You could argue that Buehler would be Friedman's type if he was coming from another team.  But the Dodgers had all year to try to get him on track this year and failed to do so, so my guess is that they will not re-sign him.

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Colton Cowser Diagnosed With Hand Fracture

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In the aftermath of their elimination at the hands of the Royals, the Orioles announced that rookie outfielder Colton Cowser broke his left hand. There’s no indication the injury will require surgery, but it could have some level of impact on Cowser’s offseason.

The injury occurred on one of the most consequential plays of tonight’s loss. The lefty-hitting outfielder came up against K.C. reliever Angel Zerpa with the bases loaded and one out in a 1-1 game in the bottom of the fifth. On a 1-2 count, Zerpa threw a 97 MPH fastball well up and in. Cowser nevertheless swung at the pitch, which struck him in his top hand (video link). He was called out on strikes and Zerpa escaped the inning when he got Adley Rutschman to ground out. Kansas City scored in the next half-inning and would hold on for a 2-1 victory.

Baltimore scored just once (on a Cedric Mullins home run) in the two-game sweep. It’s obviously not the way Coswer or the team wanted to end the year, though the former fifth overall pick had an impressive showing overall. Cowser hit 24 homers with a .242/.321/.447 slash over 561 plate appearances. He’ll very likely be a finalist in AL Rookie of the Year balloting.

Cowser proved himself to be a legitimate power threat, though he fanned in more than 30% of his plate appearances. The amount of swing-and-miss in his game has always been the biggest question mark. He’ll need to make more consistent contact to become an elite hitter, but the power and strong defense in left field already make him a good everyday player.

The O’s could be in for a shakeup in the outfield. Anthony Santander is a few weeks from free agency. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer on the heels of his 44-homer campaign. If Santander walks, the O’s could plug Heston Kjerstad into the corner opposite Cowser. Baltimore reportedly considered dealing Mullins this past summer. The former All-Star center fielder was mired in a months-long slump at the time, but he found his stride with a .266/.374/.457 line in the second half. Mullins is headed into his final season of arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting an $8.7MM salary.

Astros Expected To Present Offer To Alex Bregman In Near Future

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Alex Bregman may have played his final game as an Astro on Wednesday. Detroit’s 5-2 win completed a sweep that ended Houston’s run of seven consecutive trips at least as far as the American League Championship Series. That’ll push the Astros into offseason mode, where the focus will be on their star third baseman.

Alden González of ESPN writes that the Astros are expected to present a formal contract proposal to Bregman in the near future. While Houston has yet to put an official offer on the table, general manager Dana Brown has said on a few occasions they’d discuss the contract once the season ended. Brown again expressed optimism about the situation. “When you get down to it, I think he wants to stay here. I think we want him to stay here,” the GM told González earlier this week. “And it’s just a matter of coming up with some type of an agreement.”

Coming to an agreement is naturally much easier said than done with a free agent of this caliber. Bregman is arguably the second-best position player who’ll hit the market. Unless the Scott Boras client takes a significant hometown discount, retaining him would probably require the biggest investment in franchise history. Houston’s organizational high was the five-year, $151MM extension for Jose Altuve signed in Spring Training 2018.

That $151MM sum is coincidentally an exact match for the extension which Matt Chapman signed with the Giants last month. (Chapman’s deal was over six years, so the average annual value was lower than that of the Altuve contract.) Bregman is a year younger than Chapman and a more consistent offensive player. Bregman will decline a qualifying offer if he gets to free agency. That’ll attach him to draft compensation. That wouldn’t have been the case for Chapman, who could not have received a QO from San Francisco. Still, the one-year gap in age and the safer offensive profile make it likely that Bregman’s earning power is above the Chapman price.

The career-long Astro hasn’t spoken much about his contract status. Bregman deferred offseason questions while the Astros were still alive, stating that he was focused on the team’s performance. He limited his comments mostly to generalities in the immediate aftermath of being eliminated. Asked whether he wanted to return to Houston, Bregman said he “(hopes) so but (will) let Scott and the team handle that” (X link via Matt Young of the Houston Chronicle). He subsequently took to Twitter to thank the city.

A few of Bregman’s teammates were effusive in their praise for the two-time All-Star. Altuve, himself a Boras Corporation client, was particularly strong about the Astros’ need to keep him. “In my mind there is not a chance this is his last game (as an Astro),” Altuve said (relayed on X by Chandler Rome of the Athletic). “He gave a lot to this organization so it’s time for us as an organization to pay him back and make him stay here.” Altuve added that he planned to say as much personally to owner Jim Crane.

Ultimately, whether the Astros re-sign Bregman depends on Crane’s willingness to make a huge free agent investment. The Astros were content to let George Springer and Carlos Correa walk in previous offseasons. They’re down to their final seasons of arbitration control over Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez, both of whom are trending to nine-figure deals. Tucker is on pace to exceed $200MM and could push into the $300MM range with a great walk year.

While Crane has generally been averse to long-term deals, he hasn’t been shy about investing in the team overall. Houston is finishing this year with an approximate $244MM player payroll, as calculated by RosterResource. They’re around $262MM in luxury tax obligations, putting them into the second tier of penalization.

RosterResource calculates their guaranteed commitments for next season around $133MM. Tucker and Valdez headline one of the priciest arbitration classes in the league. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Houston’s arbitration group to cost around $58MM. Trades or non-tenders of José Urquidy and Chas McCormick could knock a few million from the ledger, but the Astros will go into the offseason with roughly $185MM in internal commitments.

Beyond the uncertainty at third base, Houston will need to look at the rotation and at first base. The latter was a huge issue all season. Houston’s rotation settled in later in the year, but they’ll see Justin Verlander and Yusei Kikuchi hit free agency. Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and hopeful injury returnees Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. make for a talented group. Injuries seriously tested the depth before they stabilized things with the Kikuchi pickup at the deadline, though, so Houston is likely to bring in some kind of starting pitching help.

The Astros don’t have an obvious in-house replacement at third base. Shay Whitcomb and Zach Dezenzo took a few at-bats this season, but they’re unproven at the MLB level. 2023 first-round pick Brice Matthews could be an answer down the line. He only has 12 games of Triple-A experience thus far. Assuming the Diamondbacks pick up their option on Eugenio Suárez, there aren’t any clear regulars available at the position in free agency aside from Bregman.

Previewing The 2024-25 Free Agent Class: Right-Handed Relief

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MLBTR’s positional preview of the upcoming free agent class concludes with a look at the right-handed relief class. There are a couple established closers and some breakout arms who should get plenty of buzz as leverage pieces, yet it’s a rather thin group overall.

Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2025 season. Only players who have appeared in the majors this year or spent the entire season on the MLB injured list are included.

Other Entries: Catcher | First Base | Second Base | Shortstop | Third Base | Center Field | Corner Outfield | Designated Hitter | Starting Pitcher | Left-Handed Relief

High-Leverage Arms

MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored Hoffman’s emergence in a piece for Front Office subscribers last week. The former top 10 pick bounced around the league before finding a home in Philadelphia. He has a sterling 2.28 ERA across 118 2/3 innings for the Phils over the past two seasons. Hoffman has pitched his way up the leverage hierarchy and proven up to the challenge of tougher assignments. He posted a 2.17 mark while striking out more than a third of batters faced over 66 1/3 frames this season. Hoffman should at least land a three-year deal and has a shot at four — especially if he continues to elevate his profile with a strong postseason showing at the back of Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Hudson returned from successive knee injuries in 2022-23 to post a strong season out of the Dodger bullpen. The veteran tossed 63 innings with an even 3.00 earned run average. He struck out nearly a quarter of opponents against a solid 7.5% walk rate. Hudson’s average fastball velocity returned to its typical 95-96 MPH and he induced swinging strikes at a huge 14.7% clip. His age probably limits him to one year, but Hudson should handily beat this season’s $2MM base salary.

The Yankees’ affinity for ground-ball relievers led them back to Kahnle. He has turned in consecutive sub-3.00 ERA showings over the course of his two-year free agent deal. Kahnle had an excellent 2.11 mark across 42 2/3 frames this season. He induced grounders at a huge 58.6% clip while striking out nearly 26% of opponents behind a stellar 16.4% swinging strike rate. Kahnle’s command can be a bit wobbly, but few pitchers match his combination of swing-and-miss and grounders. He’s adept at avoiding hard contact and neutralizes left-handed hitters with the changeup that he throws almost three quarters of the time. Even at 34, he should be in line for another multi-year deal.

The Cardinals took a flier on Kittredge, who had missed most of 2022-23 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. They were rewarded with 70 2/3 innings of 2.80 ERA ball in mostly high-leverage spots. Kittredge leans primarily on a slider that gets a ton of chases outside the strike zone. His 23.3% strikeout rate and 7% walk percentage are solid, while he has gotten swinging strikes at a strong 13.7% clip. Kittredge had a 1.88 ERA in 71 2/3 innings with the Rays in his previous healthy season. He has a multi-year track record of excellent results in pressure situations.

Martin has indicated that 2025 will be his final season. He’ll look for a one-year deal, presumably on a team with playoff aspirations. Martin should have no trouble finding a high-leverage role on a contender. He had an excellent two-year run with the Red Sox, turning in a 2.16 ERA across 95 2/3 innings. This season’s 3.45 mark wasn’t as dominant as Martin’s 1.05 ERA from 2023, but he fanned 27.8% of batters faced while limiting his walks to a microscopic 1.7% clip. Martin may have the best command of any reliever in the game. He hasn’t allowed an ERA above 4.00 in six seasons.

Robertson had another impressive season, this time at the back of the Texas bullpen. The extremely durable veteran fired 72 innings with an even 3.00 ERA. He struck out more than a third of his opponents while getting ground-balls at a solid 48.8% rate. Robertson has topped 60 innings in each of the past three seasons and hasn’t allowed an ERA higher than 3.03 in any of them. He hasn’t lost any zip on the cutter that serves as his primary pitch. Robertson is probably limited to one year because of his age, but he should command a strong salary and step right back into the late innings with a contender. Robertson will decline his end of a $7MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout.

Treinen lost almost all of 2022-23 battling shoulder injuries that eventually required surgery. The Dodgers brought him back on a $1MM option and have been rewarded with 46 2/3 frames of 1.96 ERA ball. Treinen suffered a bruised lung on a hit-by-pitch in Spring Training and had a brief IL stay in August because of hip inflammation. He hasn’t had any arm issues and has had no trouble stepping back into important innings. Treinen punched out more than 30% of opponents against a 6% walk rate. While he didn’t get nearly as many grounders as he did during his best seasons with the A’s, the strikeout/walk profile was excellent. Before the shoulder surgery, Treinen’s sinker sat around 97 MPH. It was down to the 94-95 range this season. That’s a bit of a concern at his age, but the dominant results ensure he’ll land a sizable raise relative to this year’s rebound salary.

Possible Closers

When Estévez first hit the market two seasons ago, he was a hard-throwing upside play who hadn’t put things together in Colorado. That has been one of the Angels’ better free agent moves in recent years. Estévez immediately stepped in as the Halos’ closer and turned in a 3.36 ERA with 51 saves over a season and a half. Los Angeles flipped him to the Phillies for a pair of highly-regarded pitching prospects at the deadline. Estévez has saved another six games with Philadelphia, turning in a 2.57 ERA across 21 frames. His cumulative 23.6% strikeout percentage and 12.5% swinging strike rate are more solid than elite. Yet he’s showing the best command of his career (5.7% walk rate) while averaging nearly 97 MPH on his heater. He’s 26-31 in save chances. Estévez should get another multi-year deal and has a shot at breaking $30MM if he lands three years.

Holmes entered the season with the highest earning power in the relief class. That’s probably no longer the case. Holmes’ aggregate rate stats — a 3.14 ERA with a solid 25.1% strikeout rate and a massive 65% grounder percentage — don’t point to this being a bad year. Holmes blew 13 of 43 save opportunities, though, five more than any other pitcher. He had a 3.75 ERA in the second half after carrying a 2.77 mark into the All-Star Break. The Yankees have bumped him from the closing role going into the playoffs. Holmes still has a case for three years, but he hits the market with more red flags than the ERA and elite ground-ball rate would suggest.

Jansen is going to look for a closing opportunity to add to his career tally of 447 saves. He needs 32 more to pass Lee Smith for third on the all-time leaderboard. Pitching two more seasons would give him a chance to get to 500. There’ll be teams willing to give him that opportunity. Jansen turned in a 3.29 ERA while locking down 27 of 31 attempts with the Red Sox this season. He finished his Boston tenure with a 3.44 mark in 99 1/3 innings over two seasons. While Jansen isn’t the utterly dominant force he was with the Dodgers, he’s still a good closer.

Kimbrel is just behind Jansen on the career saves leaderboard. Whether he’ll get another ninth inning chance is in more doubt. The Orioles released the nine-time All-Star last month. Kimbrel had started the season reasonably well and carried a 2.80 ERA with 23 saves into the All-Star Break. The second half was an absolute disaster. He allowed 22 runs (20 earned) with 15 walks and 20 strikeouts over his final 17 innings. Kimbrel certainly won’t approach last year’s $13MM free agent guarantee. He’ll probably get a big league contract but might need to pitch his way back into the ninth inning.

Sewald’s season wasn’t as poor as Kimbrel’s, but he also lost his hold on the ninth inning. Sewald had only allowed one earned run through the first two months, but a disastrous July (12 runs in 10 innings) pushed him out of the closer’s role in Arizona. While his performance rebounded somewhat down the stretch, he finished the season on the injured list with neck discomfort. Sewald ended with a 4.31 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. He struck out 26.1% of opponents — down six points relative to 2023 — against a 6.1% walk rate. This was his toughest year since his 2021 resurgence with the Mariners.

The Rangers brought in Yates on a $4.5MM free agent deal last winter. It was one of the best bargain pickups of the offseason. Yates turned in a season similar to his dominant 2019 campaign when he was a member of the Padres. He worked to a 1.17 ERA while punching out almost 36% of opposing hitters. Yates took the closing job in Arlington and locked down 33 of 34 opportunities. Yates doesn’t have pristine control, but he misses bats in bunches and rarely gives up damaging contact. He has certainly earned himself a nice boost on this year’s earnings and has a chance at a two-year deal even at 38.

Middle Relief

Armstrong split his season between the Rays, Cardinals and Cubs. He had a poor ERA with Tampa Bay but more appealing strikeout and walk numbers that could land him a big league deal. He finished the year with a 4.86 ERA and a 22.4% strikeout rate over 66 2/3 innings.

A one-time closer in Kansas City, Barlow has moved into the middle innings with the Padres and Guardians over the past season and a half. Cleveland released him last month after he pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 55 innings. Barlow still fanned more than 28% of opponents, though his strikeout rate and velocity trended down as the season progressed.

A journeyman middle reliever, Barnes posted a 4.36 ERA over 66 innings for the Nationals this year. He struck out just under 20% of opponents.

Farmer had a nice season with the Reds, his third year in Cincinnati. He tossed 71 innings with a 3.04 earned run average and nearly average strikeout (23.4%) and walk (9.7%) rates.

García is a hard-throwing sinkerballer. This year’s 50.3% ground-ball rate is below his typical level. García carried a 3.71 ERA in 43 2/3 innings with the Angels through the deadline. A trade to the Red Sox flopped, as he was tagged for 15 runs over 15 1/3 innings in a Boston uniform.

García was missing a ton of bats for the Blue Jays early in the season. He looked on his way to at least a strong two-year deal at the time. Elbow injuries unfortunately soured his season, as he barely pitched from the middle of June onward. García only made 10 appearances for the Mariners, who acquired him in a deadline deal. His season ended in September when recurring elbow soreness shut him down.

Graveman missed the entire season after undergoing offseason shoulder surgery. He posted a 3.12 ERA in 66 1/3 innings between the White Sox and Astros in 2023.

Kelly battled injuries and struggled to a 4.78 ERA over 32 innings this year. He still pushes close to triple digits with his fastball but had a relatively pedestrian 24.5% strikeout rate this season. Kelly had fanned more than 30% of opponents in each of the previous two seasons.

A closer early in his career with the Rangers, Leclerc has landed as a volatile middle reliever in recent years. He misses a ton of bats (30.9% strikeout rate, 14.1% swinging strike percentage) while struggling to throw strikes consistently. Leclerc made 64 appearances with a 4.32 earned run average this year.

Loáisiga gets a ton of ground-balls when he’s at his best. Durability has been an issue, though. He only made three appearances before undergoing season-ending UCL surgery in April.

López pitched well for the Cubs down the stretch after his controversial exit from the Mets. He finished the year with a 2.89 ERA over 53 combined innings. López had roughly league average strikeout and walk rates while getting ground-balls at a strong 51% clip.

Middleton lost the entire season — and potentially his St. Louis tenure — to flexor tendon surgery. In 2023, he struck out more than 30% of opponents with a 3.38 ERA in 50 2/3 innings.

The Tigers released Miller last week. He had pitched to a 4.53 ERA over 55 2/3 innings. Miller threw a lot of strikes but had a pedestrian 21.8% strikeout percentage.

Neris walked a tightrope with his command throughout his time with the Cubs. Chicago released him late in the summer before he would vest a $9MM player option for next season. Neris returned to his old stomping grounds in Houston, where he dialed in his command but struggled with home runs in a small sample. He wrapped the season with 59 1/3 innings of 4.10 ERA ball with a strikeout rate just below 25% and a 10.8% walk percentage.

Ottavino continues plugging away as he nears his 40th birthday. He struck out 28.6% of opponents with a 4.34 ERA over 56 innings this year. It’s a slight step back from his 2023 production but Ottavino still misses a lot of bats and shouldn’t have an issue finding another big league deal.

Sims had a 3.57 ERA with a 26% strikeout rate across 35 1/3 innings for the Reds going into the trade deadline. As was the case with García, his production tanked after being moved to the Red Sox. Sims allowed 10 runs with more walks than strikeouts across 14 innings for the Sox.

Smith has been a solid middle innings arm for the Mets over his career. He had a 3.06 ERA in 19 appearances early this year before suffering an elbow injury that required a UCL reconstruction.

Stanek sits in the upper 90s and misses a lot of bats. His command comes and goes and he has allowed more than four earned runs per nine in consecutive seasons. Stanek pitched to a 4.88 ERA through 55 1/3 frames between the Mariners and Mets this season.

Strickland inked a minor league deal with the Angels and cracked the MLB roster in early April. He was a quietly valuable bullpen piece for Ron Washington, working 73 1/3 innings of 3.31 ERA ball in his first major league action in two years. Strickland’s 19.4% strikeout rate is going to limit interest, but he has a shot at a big league deal this time.

Swing Options

Anderson has been a starter for most of his career. He worked almost entirely in relief this year between the Red Sox and Rangers. Anderson pitched to a 5.40 ERA with a 16.5% strikeout rate through 58 1/3 frames as a mop-up option. He’ll be limited to minor league deals.

Signed by the Brewers to a $7MM deal as a starter, Junis suffered an early-season shoulder injury and pitched mostly in relief upon returning. He split his time between Milwaukee and the Reds, as Cincinnati added him in the Frankie Montas deal. Junis turned in a 2.69 ERA across 67 innings covering 24 appearances. He demonstrated excellent control but didn’t maintain the strikeout stuff he’d shown over his breakout 2023 season in San Francisco. Junis will collect a $3MM buyout on an $8MM mutual option — he’s likely to decline his end of the deal — and could get interest in starting and relief roles this winter.

Ross made it back to the majors after Tommy John surgery robbed him of the 2022-23 seasons. He missed a couple months with a back injury but had decent results for the Brewers when healthy. He turned in a 3.77 ERA with slightly below-average strikeout and walk marks across 74 innings.

Soroka was bombed over nine starts to begin the season. The White Sox moved him to the bullpen in the middle of May. He was quietly dominant after being kicked into relief, where he struck out 39% of batters faced with a 2.75 ERA over 36 innings. Soroka walked an alarming 13% of opponents out of the ’pen, so it wasn’t without some concern, but he could’ve been a key deadline target for teams looking to add swing-and-miss to the late innings. Unfortunately, he suffered a shoulder strain around the All-Star Break and didn’t return until the final week of the season. Soroka is just 27, so perhaps there are teams that believe they can recapture some of the upside that made him an All-Star starting pitcher before his Achilles injuries with the Braves. The whiffs will surely have a lot of clubs intrigued if he’s willing to sign as a pure reliever.

Stripling struggled for the second straight year. He lost his spot in the A’s rotation midway through the season. Stripling finished the year with an ERA slightly north of 6.00 through 85 1/3 innings. He’s likely looking at minor league offers.

A starter for most of his career, Turnbull was pushed to the bullpen early in the year with the Phillies. He’d outperformed Taijuan Walker and looked poised to seize the fifth starter job before suffering a lat strain that ended his regular season in late June. He was excellent before the injury, working to a 2.65 ERA while striking out 26% of opponents through 54 1/3 innings. He could make it back for Philadelphia’s playoff push.

Ureña pitched well enough to hold a roster spot with the Rangers all year. The former Marlin put up a 3.80 ERA in 109 innings spanning 33 appearances. His strikeout and walk numbers aren’t good, but he kept the ball on the ground half the time an opponent made contact. Ureña could get a low-base MLB deal.

Depth Types

Club Options

The O’s hold an $8MM option on Domínguez that comes with a $500K buyout. It’s a $7.5MM call that feels it could go either way. Domínguez didn’t have a great overall regular season, allowing a 4.45 ERA through 58 2/3 frames. He had a sub-4.00 mark after the Orioles acquired him from Philadelphia at the deadline. Domínguez picked up 10 saves while fanning nearly 29% of batters faced for the O’s. He has high-leverage stuff with inconsistent results over the past two seasons.

The Braves reacquired Jackson from the Giants at the deadline. He carried a 5.40 ERA over 35 frames at the time. Atlanta was hoping for a rebound, and while that happened to some extent, it probably wasn’t what they had in mind. Jackson posted a 4.50 ERA over 18 innings in his return. He finished the regular season with a 5.09 mark through 53 frames. Jackson misses enough bats that he could command a big league deal, but the $5MM difference between his $7MM salary and the $2MM buyout is probably too hefty for the team’s liking.

Maton scuffled early in the year after signing a late free agent deal with the Rays. The Mets landed him in early July. He has turned things around in Queens, working to a 2.51 ERA with a near-27% strikeout rate in 28 2/3 innings down the stretch. The Mets can keep Maton for $7.75MM or buy him out for $250K. Considering how well he pitched down the stretch, they’ll likely bring him back.

The Yankees hold a $5MM option on Trivino. They’ll decline it. Trivino was rehabbing 2023 Tommy John surgery and battled elbow and shoulder issues this year. It was a lost season that could lead him to take a minor league contract this time around.

Weaver struggled between 2020-23, yet the Yankees signed him to a big league deal in January. The move was met with plenty of skepticism but has worked out brilliantly. Weaver has provided the Yanks 84 innings of 2.89 ERA ball while fanning more than 31% of batters faced. He goes into October having taken the closer role from Holmes. A $2.5MM club option for next season only sweetens the deal. This is easily getting picked up.

Player Options

Martinez has a $12MM option for next season. He has indicated he’s uncertain on his opt-out decision, but it’d be very surprising if he didn’t retest the market. He continued to thrive in a swing role for the Reds, working to a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings. Martinez started 16 of 42 outings. He should land another multi-year deal with a realistic shot at three years and more than $30MM. Neither the Padres nor the Reds gave Martinez an Opening Day rotation spot, but he could find that opportunity somewhere this offseason.

Pagán has a similarly easy call as his Cincinnati teammate, albeit in the opposite direction. He’ll almost certainly exercise his $8MM option to stay with the Reds. Pagán posted a 4.50 ERA over 38 innings around a midseason lat injury. He had strong strikeout and walk numbers but issued a few too many home runs (1.42 HR/9) — essentially the story of his entire career.

Stratton has a $4.5MM player option on the second season of his two-year deal with Kansas City. He’ll be taking it after struggling to a 5.55 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage during his first season.

Paul Blackburn Won’t Return In 2024

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The Mets defeated the Brewers yesterday and are now one win away from moving on to the National League Division series. But regardless of how deep they go in the postseason, right-hander Paul Blackburn won’t be an option for them. Manager Carlos Mendoza informed reporters that the righty is done for the year, with Tim Healey of Newsday among those to relay the news on X.

Blackburn was acquired from the Athletics prior to this year’s deadline. The Mets had some injuries in their rotation, with Christian Scott and Kodai Senga both on the shelf, so they sent prospect Kade Morris to Oakland to bring Blackburn aboard.

Unfortunately, the trade hasn’t worked out for them so far. Blackburn made five starts with a 5.18 earned run average before landing on the 15-day injured list due to a right hand bruise suffered when he was hit by a comebacker. While still on the IL, it was reported a couple of weeks ago that he was dealing with a spinal fluid leak in his back. That sounded pretty grim but the club still had some hope of him making a return.

With today’s update, however, that won’t happen. It’s not a devastating blow to the Mets at this point, as the extra off-days in the playoffs and the do-or-die nature of the circumstances lead to smaller starting rotations. The Mets have Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino as their current top three, with David Peterson and Tylor Megill also around as possible options. Megill isn’t on the Wild Card roster but could be utilized in the coming weeks, if needed.

Senga could perhaps be an option down the line as well but likely wouldn’t be counted on for bulk. He suffered a capsule strain in his shoulder during spring training and didn’t make his season debut until July. In his first start back, he suffered a left calf strain and went right back on the injured list. He threw a 25-pitch bullpen session earlier this week, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com on X. That could lead to him rejoining the club later in the month but he will probably be limited to short outings.

Turning back to Blackburn, the club could still reap some return on that trade as he can be retained via arbitration for one more season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a salary of $4.4MM next year. Since the start of 2022, Blackburn has thrown 290 1/3 innings with a 4.43 ERA, 20.2% strikeout rate, 7.5% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.

He would be well worth that modest arbitration raise if the Mets expect him to be able to provide that kind of production next year. The club has a fairly wide open rotation in 2025, as both Quintana and Severino are slated for free agency. Manaea has one year left on his deal but has an opt-out he will certainly exercise as long as he’s still healthy in a few weeks. Scott recently underwent Tommy John surgery and could miss the whole season. José Buttó could return to a starting role but he’s having success in the bullpen, which could tempt the club to keep him there.

That’ll leave the club with a projected 2025 rotation of Senga, Megill and Peterson. Prospects like Brandon Sproat and Blade Tidwell have reached Triple-A but without success at that level yet. Given the number of available innings they have, tendering a contract to Blackburn makes plenty of sense. Even if the club pursues higher-upside pitchers in free agency and squeeze him out of the plans, Blackburn would have some trade value they could look to cash in.

Perry Minasian Discusses Angels’ Future

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Angels general manager Perry Minasian held an end-of-season press conference this week, with details provided by Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register and Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Though the club is wrapping up another disappointing season, Minasian expressed confidence in what he believes to be a budding core and indicated the entire coaching staff will be returning next year.

The Halos finished 2024 with a record of 63-99. Despite plenty of challenging seasons in the club’s history, that was actually their worst performance ever by a notable margin. Prior to this year, the club’s worst record was a mark of 65-95 in 1980. This year’s struggles continued a dreary run for the club, as they haven’t made the postseason since 2014, the longest active drought in the league.

“As far as the season goes, very frustrating from a small-picture standpoint,” Minasian said. “Big picture, there are a lot of things to be excited about. I believe this is the type of year that we’ll look back at a year from now, two years from now, and say that was huge.” Per Bollinger, Minasian highlighted that the Diamondbacks only won 52 games in 2021 but were in the World Series two years later, while the Royals only had 56 wins in 2023 but are in the postseason this year.

Whether the Angels can mount a similar climb into contention remains to be seen. Minasian seems to be encouraged by the development of young players such as shortstop Zach Neto, catcher Logan O’Hoppe and first baseman Nolan Schanuel, as well as pitchers José Soriano, Jack Kochanowicz and Ben Joyce.

Those players all showed encouraging signs this year, to varying degrees. Neto hit 23 home runs and stole 30 bases. His defensive metrics were mixed, as he had 11 Defensive Runs Saved but -5 Outs Above Average, but he was still graded by FanGraphs as being worth 3.5 wins above replacement on the year. O’Hoppe provided offense around league average, with a 101 wRC+ on the year, though catchers are usually about 10 to 12% below par. His work behind the plate was also considered to be solid, leading to a 2.1 fWAR tally. Schanuel’s contributions were more modest. He drew walks at a strong 11.2% clip but only hit 13 homers and also had mixed reviews for his glovework, leading to 0.7 fWAR on the year.

On the pitching side of things, Kochanowicz made 11 starts with a 3.99 earned run average. His 9.4% strikeout rate was well below average but he limited walks to a tiny rate of 3.8% and forced opponents to put 57% of balls in play on the ground. Soriano tossed 113 innings, which was an achievement in and of itself after he missed so much time due to injuries. But the results were also good, as he had a 3.42 ERA, 20.7% strikeout rate, 9.6% walk rate and 59.7% ground ball rate. Ben Joyce used his triple-digit velocity to throw 34 2/3 innings with a 2.08 ERA, 23.2% strikeout rate, 9.9% walk rate and 58.9% ground ball rate.

In addition to their solid results, those players are all cheap and controllable. None of those six have reached three years of service time, meaning none of them are guaranteed to qualify for arbitration this winter. Soriano could perhaps qualify as a Super Two player, depending on where the cutoff will be. He is going into the winter at two years and 121 days, which is close to where the line has been in previous offseasons. Regardless of which side of the border Soriano is on, each of these players can be affordably controlled through at least 2028.

But even with contributions from those six, the club was still a disappointment in 2024, so improvements will be needed elsewhere. Perhaps that will come from other young players like Caden Dana, Sam Aldegheri, Niko Kavadas, Christian Moore, Nelson Rada and others, but the club will also need to make some external additions, something that Minasian is aware of. “We definitely need more players,” he said. “There’s no secret there.”

It’s unclear at this point what kind of resources Minasian will have at his disposal for the winter, as he said he hasn’t yet discussed the 2025 payroll with owner Arte Moreno. The club did cut back on spending in 2024, winding up in the range of $176MM per the calculations of RosterResource. That was close to $40MM below the roughly $215MM they spent in 2023.

RR currently pegs the club at $109MM for 2025 but that’s not a complete picture of their situation. The club has 12 arbitration-eligible players, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting that group for a total of $37.6MM. Not every player in that group will be tendered a contract, but the Angels could be internally committed to the $140MM range already.

That would leave them some wiggle room if they were willing to carry forward a similar payroll to 2024, but it remains to be seen as to whether that will be the case after a 99-loss season. The club presumably took some revenue hits in terms of ticket sales, TV ratings and advertising in their first season of the post-Shohei Ohtani era.

Regardless of how the club handles its offseason, Minasian did reveal a bit about how he’s thinking about the club going forward. Notably, he wouldn’t commit to Anthony Rendon being the club’s starting third baseman nor even being on the roster.

“When Anthony has played, he hasn’t been productive,” Minasian said. “So he’s gonna have to come in and earn it. There’s no handouts. We’re starting to create some depth, where we have some versatile players that can do some different things, so the best players are gonna play, no doubt about it.” When asked if Rendon would continue to have a roster spot if things don’t turn around, he responded with: “That’s a great question. We’re going to look at everything. We’re going to look at what makes the best sense for this organization.”

Rendon’s struggles with the Angels are well documented at this point. He signed a seven-year, $245MM deal with the club going into 2020 but they haven’t seen much return on that investment. He was good in the first year of the deal, though that was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. Over the four seasons since then, he has frequently missed time due to injury and only played 205 games. As Minasian said, he hasn’t done well even when on the field, having hit .231/.329/.336 for a wRC+ of 89 over those four campaigns. That includes a dismal line of .218/.307/.267 in 2024, when he only got into 57 contests.

Rendon is now 34 years old, turning 35 next June, and has two years left on his deal. He’ll make $38MM in each of those two years, leaving $76MM to be paid out. It’s not uncommon for a club to give up on a player with an underwater contract. The Angels themselves did it not too long ago by releasing Albert Pujols. However, while some fans may yearn for the same to happen with Rendon soon, it would be unprecedented for a club to eat this much money.

The largest guarantee still owed to a player at the time of his release was when the Red Sox cut Pablo Sandoval loose in July of 2017. At that point, he was still owed $18MM in each of the next two years, plus a $5MM buyout on his 2020 option. He was also still owed a little more than a third of his 2017 salary of $17MM. Matt Gelb of The Athletic recently pegged the total at $48.3MM of what Sandoval was still owed when he was released, which is barely half of what Rendon is still owed.

Whether the Angels want to break that record remains to be seen. They could perhaps have Luis Rengifo take over at third base, though he’s also an option to be the regular at second base or perhaps serve in a utility role. Moore is a second baseman has already reached Double-A and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the club quickly promote him, since they did the same with guys like Neto, Schanuel and Dana. Matthew Lugo, acquired in the Luis García trade, had a strong year in the minors. He has reached Triple-A and can play all over the infield, though he has some time in the outfield as well.

Perhaps there will come a time when the club decides it would rather dedicate playing time to those guys rather than continuing to run Rendon out onto the field. The designated hitter spot might be used by Mike Trout with some regularity as the club tries to stave off his own injury troubles. Offseason acquisitions could further crowd the roster. Rendon could put together a nice stretch of health and flip the narrative but it seems his contract is going to guarantee him any opportunities.

Young: Rangers Will Prioritize Pitching, Explore Reunions With Eovaldi, Heaney

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The Rangers went from the top of the MLB mountain to missing the playoffs in the span of one season, due in no small part to an offense that sputtered throughout the season. Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim were among the regulars who struggled at the plate, while Texas was plagued by injuries to Corey Seager, Josh Jung and Evan Carter, among others. As Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News points out, the Rangers floundered against four-seam fastballs in particular.

Be that as it may, president of baseball operations Chris Young’s end-of-season press conference struck an optimistic tone regarding the in-house hitters the Rangers currently possess. “The biggest remedy, in my opinion, is improving the guys we currently have,” Young said (via Grant). The recently extended Rangers baseball ops leader called internal improvements to the lineup a “heavy priority” heading into next season.

With regard to outside additions, those will come more on the pitching side of the roster. MLB.com’s Kennedi Landri writes that Young specifically mentioned that he’d like to retain impending free agents Nathan Eovaldi and Andrew Heaney. Eovaldi triggered a $20MM player option this season when he reached a combined 300 innings between 2023-24, but he’s widely expected to decline that in favor of a return to the market (barring a hypothetical extension from his current club). Heaney exercised a player option following the 2023 season and returned to make 31 solid starts in this year’s rotation.

“As far as Evo and Andrew go, those are priorities for us,” said Young. “We love those guys. They helped us win a World Series. We would love to bring those guys back, and we’re going to explore every way we can to make that happen.”

Entering the 2025 season, Texas won’t be short on rotation options. Jacob deGrom should be the Opening Day starter now that he’s recovered from Tommy John surgery, though counting on him for a full slate of 30-plus starts doesn’t feel realistic when he hasn’t reached that total since 2019. He’ll be joined by Jon Gray, Tyler Mahle (also in his first full season post-Tommy John) and some combination of Dane Dunning, Cody Bradford, Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter. With deGrom and Mahle both facing workload concerns and the bulk of the team’s other options yet to pitch a full season in a big league rotation, it’s understandable that the Rangers feel it not just prudent but pivotal to fortify the starting staff.

Reunions with Eovaldi and/or Heaney won’t come cheaply, however. Eovaldi’s two-year, $34MM deal proved to be a bargain, even as incentives ballooned his guarantee to a total of $38.5MM over his two years. He signed that deal coming off an injury-shortened year with the Red Sox, who’d issued him a qualifying offer and thus tied him to draft pick compensation. Now healthy and unencumbered by the weight of a QO, he should be able to top that $34MM guarantee even though he’s two years older than during his last trip to the open market.

Heaney, similarly, was coming off a season of just 72 2/3 innings with the Dodgers. He hasn’t looked as dominant in Texas as he did during that abbreviated run with L.A., but he just gave the Rangers a combined 307 1/3 innings of 4.22 ERA ball with more promising strikeout and walk rates of 23.2% and 7.6%, respectively. He could find another two-year deal in the market, and it’s possible that would come with a larger guarantee than the $25MM term on his last pact.

The extent to which Texas will be able to spend in free agency is not yet clear. RosterResource pegs them with about $148MM worth of 2025 commitments, and that’s not including arbitration raises for Dunning, Heim, Sborz, Nathaniel Lowe and Leody Taveras — a group that MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects for a combined $25.5MM. Add in a slate of league-minimum players, and Texas is looking at around $185MM in total projected salary for next year’s 26-man roster. That’s $40MM shy of where they opened the 2024 season, so there’s clearly some room to spend, but that $40MM could dry up quickly if the Rangers are intent not only on adding at least one starter, but also on replacing effectively their entire late-inning relief corps.

To say Texas is likely to be active in the bullpen market would be putting things mildly. Kirby Yates, David Robertson, Jose Leclerc and Jose Urena — their top four relievers by innings pitched — are all free agents. Deadline acquisition Andrew Chafin has a $6.5MM club option ($500K buyout) that is not a lock to be exercised. Robertson has a $7MM mutual option ($1.5MM buyout) and will very likely decline his end of it. Yates, Robertson, Leclerc, Chafin and Josh Sborz — who missed most of the season due to shoulder problems — were the team’s go-to options in high-leverage spots.

Young didn’t comment on what level of increase will or won’t be possible. He plans to meet with majority owner Ray Davis in the near future to outline a spending plan. While Young avoided any firm declarations on payroll, he spoke about uncertainty regarding the team’s endeavors to create a proprietary regional sports network and pledged to build a “very good roster with whatever resources we have.”

On the surface, that’s a far cry from his Aug. 2021 comments wherein he pledged to be “very active” in free agency — and then followed through with blockbuster signings of Seager and Marcus Semien. More context on the Rangers’ potential spending figures to come to light as the onset of free agency draws nearer, but given the team’s current financial obligations and needs up and down the pitching staff, it’s hardly a shock that Young is prioritizing arms and hoping to see a talented core of hitters rebound at the plate next season.

Diamond Sports Group Planning To Cut Ties With 11 MLB Clubs

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Diamond Sports Group said in court today that it plans to broadcast just one MLB club next year, the Braves, per reporting from Evan Drellich of The Athletic. The company, which owns the Bally Sports Networks, also had deals with the Reds, Tigers, Royals, Angels, Marlins, Cardinals, Rays but plans on walking away from those. As Drellich notes, as part of the company’s ongoing Chapter 11 bankruptcy process, they can accept and reject contracts though the measures have to be approved by the court. The Brewers, Guardians, Twins and Rangers had one-year deals with Diamond for 2024. Those 11 clubs will now have to renegotiate new deals with Diamond or find other broadcasting arrangements.

Drellich provides some more specifics on X, noting that it’s more complicated than Diamond simply abandoning these 11 clubs, but that seems to be the company’s goal regardless. Alden González of ESPN adds some more details, noting that a confirmation hearing has been set for November 14 and 15 in Houston. The Marlins and Diamond have mutual interest in working out a new deal, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald. The Angels are working on a new deal with Diamond, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.

Per Drellich, league representatives said they were “sandbagged” by the news. “We have no information about what is being done,” said Jim Bromley, lawyer for MLB. “We’ve had no opportunity to review and now we’re in front of the court and being asked to make our comments.”

The ongoing financial situation of Diamond Sports Group has been a significant part of baseball’s economic landscape for a long time and this could prove to be a major development as part of that narrative. Largely due to cord cutting, the regional sports network model has been gradually collapsing in recent history. In the 2022-23 offseason, reports emerged that Diamond was in rough shape financially and the company filed for bankruptcy before the 2023 MLB season began.

They dropped their contracts with the Padres and Diamondbacks during that 2023 campaign. It threatened to do the same with the Guardians, Twins and Rangers for 2024 but ultimately renegotiated lower fees with those clubs and continued those broadcasts through this year. Now it seems like the company is continuing down this path but with an even more aggressive severing of their existing ties to Major League Baseball.

This is bound to have short-term effects on clubs and players. These contracts have been sources of significant revenue for clubs, as MLBTR covered earlier this year. The 11 teams that Diamond plans to cut ties with were previously receiving between $33MM (Brewers) and $125MM (Angels) on an annual basis. Per reporting in April, the Padres were set to receive about $60MM in 2023 before their deal with Diamond collapsed. The league reportedly covered about 80% of those fees last year but didn’t plan to do so in 2024 and beyond.

Uncertainty around broadcast revenue seemingly played a major role in the 2023-24 offseason, which was disappointing for players. Teams like the Padres, Rangers, Twins and others were either cutting payroll or not increasing it as much as had previously been expected, with the TV situation often being used as justification. This appeared to play a role in various free agents not finding markets as strong as they had anticipated and many of them lingered unsigned into the early months of 2024 and/or signed for deals well below projections. It seems fair to expect that similar narratives could emerge in the coming winter.

Per González, a company source says that Diamond is still hoping to sign new deals with the 11 clubs being cut out today. However, that would presumably involve reduce fee payments, such as those received by the Guardians, Twins and Rangers this year. As mentioned up top, the Marlins and Angels seem to expect to continue their relationship with Diamond/Bally in 2025, though negotiating new deals may take some time.

In the long-term picture, MLB might be happy to be further cutting ties with Diamond. They have continually expressed skepticism about the company’s plans to stay afloat. Diamond has tried various methods of refinancing, including signing a streaming deal with Amazon, but the league hasn’t seemed convinced that any of the company’s plans would lead to long-term stability.

As mentioned, the league has already started selling some games to fans in direct-to-customer fashion. Commissioner Rob Manfred has aspirations of marketing a digital streaming package consisting of several MLB teams, which fans could watch without blackout restrictions. MLB.TV already exists and allows fans to watch most games, but the RSN deals lead to certain teams being blacked out in the areas covered by those deals.

Having less commitment with Diamond going forward will increase the viability of that streaming plan over the years to come. However, as mentioned, less TV revenue figures to have a sizeable impact on the short-term economics of the game. This will lead to ripple effects throughout the upcoming offseason and will likely be worrisome for certain players hitting the open market in the coming weeks. New deals could be negotiated between now and the 2025 season, which could put some money back on the table, though likely less than in previous years.

There is also the matter of the fan experience, as there were times in 2024 where the Braves were not available on TV to some customers during a dispute between Bally’s and Comcast. For fans of these 11 clubs today, they will have to keep an eye on the proceedings to determine if their favorite club will still be accessed in the ways they are accustomed to or if they will have to switch to some new broadcast model.

Marlins Will Not Retain Any Of 2024 Coaching Staff

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1:20pm: Also among the cuts were head athletic trainer Lee Meyer and strength & conditioning coach Brendan Verner, per Mish and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. None of the coaches being dismissed were under contract for the 2025 season, per the report. Still, an overhaul of this magnitude is borderline unprecedented in recent big league history.

11:40am: The Marlins are gutting their coaching staff, as Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald reports that the entire staff has been informed it will not return for the 2025 season. Mish notes that there are a couple “exceptions” who have been told there’s some interest in a reunion, but even that’s dependent on the hiring of the incoming manager and any preferences that person may have. Specifically, Daniel Alvarez Montes of El Extra Base reports that bench coach Luis Urueta and first base/outfield coach Jon Jay have been told there’s interest in a reunion, pending the managerial search. Both will be free to pursue other opportunities in the meantime, however.

All of this aligns with a report last night from Isaac Azout of Fish On First, who tweeted that the Marlins’ firings were being described to him as a “blood bath” that extended to the coaching staff, clubhouse attendants, performance staff and more.

Manager Skip Schumaker already departed the organization over the weekend. His impending exit was one of the worst-kept secrets around the league. The former big league utilityman and Cardinals bench coach was hired by former Marlins GM Kim Ng and won NL Manager of the Year honors last season in his rookie effort. His original two-year contract included an option for the 2025 season. However, after the Marlins hired Rays GM Peter Bendix as their new president of baseball operations, prompting Ng to walk away from the organization. Schumaker reportedly voiced frustration with the club’s direction — understandably so, given last year’s playoff berth — and management agreed to void the 2025 club option on his deal in order to allow him to explore new opportunities.

In addition to Urueta and Jay, today’s news presumably indicates that hitting coach John Mabry, assistant hitting coaches Bill Mueller and Jason Hart, pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr., third base coach Griffin Benedict, infield coach Jody Reed, bullpen coach Wellington Cepeda, bullpen coordinator Rob Flippo and field coordinator Rod Barajas will all be at the very least free to pursue other opportunities, if not dismissed outright.

Among the group, Stottlemyre figures to be a particularly hot commodity on the coaching market. He’s spent a dozen years on big league coaching staffs, serving as both a pitching coach and bullpen coach in addition to prior stints as a minor league pitching coordinator. He’s worked with the D-backs and Mariners organizations in the past but has spent the past seven years as the pitching coach in Miami, building a strong reputation along the way.

While the Marlins have regularly been a doormat in the NL East — with the exception of the 2020 and 2023 seasons — a strong core of touted young pitching has been a hallmark of the team in recent years. Stottlemyre alone isn’t to credit for that, of course, but his influence on the staff and the organization’s pitching development as a whole is clear. Cepeda, it should be noted, has been in lockstep with Stottlemyre throughout his time in the organization. He was hired as the Marlins’ bullpen coach back in 2019. The two have worked alongside one another for seven years.

That’s not to say others on the staff won’t be coveted free agents in their own right. Urueta spent 15 years in the D-backs system, rose to their bench coach under Torey Lovullo, and has interviewed for MLB managerial posts in the past. Mabry and Mueller, in addition to lengthy big league careers, have extensive coaching backgrounds across multiple organizations. Barajas, who also had a lengthy big league career, has served as the bench coach and interim manager of the Padres and has interviewed for various managerial posts in recent years (in addition to several years as a minor league manager in San Diego’s system). Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat speculates that Jay could wind up a target of the Cardinals, for whom he played six MLB seasons — though Jay could also join Schumaker wherever he lands his next managerial assignment.

Broadly speaking, the Miami coaching staff can hardly be faulted for the disastrous record this season. Bendix spent most of the 2023-24 offseason focused on reshaping the baseball operations department and did little to augment the actual Marlins roster. Injuries waylaid much of the pitching staff, and when Miami opened the season with a significant losing streak, the front office wasted little time in waving the white flag. Luis Arraez was traded to San Diego in early May, signaling exactly what type of direction the new baseball ops staff would be taking. No manager or coaching staff could’ve spun the ’24 Marlins into a contender, and other clubs will surely be cognizant of that as they show interest in a wave of newly available coaching talent.

Twins Part Ways With Four Coaches

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Oct. 2: In addition to Popkins, the Twins announced that assistant hitting coaches Rudy Hernandez and Derek Shoman will not return to the staff next season. Infield coach/assistant bench coach Tony Diaz also will not return to next year’s staff. The rest of the group is expected to return.

Oct. 1: The Twins have informed hitting coach David Popkins that he won’t back next season, per a report from Dan Hayes of The Athletic. His contract just ended with the conclusion of the 2024 season and will not be renewed.

Popkins has been the club’s hitting coach for the past three years, getting hired prior to the 2022 campaign. The first of those seasons saw the club finish 78-84, though that wasn’t really on the offense. The club hit a collective .248/.317/.401 for a wRC+ of 106, 10th best in the majors. 2023 was more successful, as the club went 87-75 and won the American League Central. Their hitters collectively slashed .243/.326/.428 for a 108 wRC+, tied for sixth in the majors.

For a long time, it seemed like 2024 was going to be another successful campaign for the Twins. They were in playoff position for most of the season but collapsed at the end, going 9-18 in the month of September and missing out on the postseason.

The team was still strong at the plate overall this year, with a line of .246/.315/.411 and a 107 wRC+ that was ninth in the league. That includes a dismal .218/.285/.338 line and 78 wRC+ in September as the club’s season slipped away from them.

It’s always tough to separate the influence of a coach from the performances of the players. Over the course of the three years where Popkins has been the hitting coach, most of the results have been good, though the most recent stretch of play obviously leaves a bad taste. Whether one wants to blame Popkins or not would be a matter of debate. Key players like Carlos Correa, Royce Lewis, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and others missed significant time with injuries this year and were either off the field or perhaps not playing at 100% health during the September swoon. Regardless, it seems the club has decided to go in a different direction for 2025.

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