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Lerner: Nationals Not Ready For Big Free Agent Spending

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Coming into this offseason, some observers expected the Nationals to be a dark horse for the top free agents. That didn’t come to pass, which was addressed this week by owner Mark Lerner, who said that he and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo agreed the timing wasn’t right.

“When Mike calls me in and says, ‘We really need to think about it,’ for next winter, we’ll talk about it,” Lerner said, per Barry Svrluga of The Washington Post. “Right now, he doesn’t think — and I agree with him: There’s no point in getting a superstar and paying him hundreds of millions of dollars to win two or three more games. You’ve got to wait until — like Jayson [Werth]. Jayson was right on the cusp of [the team] being really good, and it took us to the next level. That’s the ideal situation. It’s always on our mind.”

The Nationals have been firmly in rebuild mode for a while now. At the 2021 deadline, with their competitive window closing, they traded Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber and others. The following summer, Juan Soto and Josh Bell were out the door. Though they won the World Series in 2019, they have finished well below .500 in the five seasons since then.

There have been some positive developments in that rebuild process lately. Young players like Dylan Crews, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin and others have had some big league success, to varying degrees, and are affordable as well as controllable for multiple years.

In addition to that emerging core, the club’s payroll situation looked to be in decent shape going into this winter. The six-year Patrick Corbin deal helped the Nats win a title in 2019 but his performance fell off for the final five years. That deal was backloaded, with a $12.5MM salary in the first year but a $35MM salary in the sixth. It was therefore taking up a big chunk of the payroll for a rebuilding club but finally came off the books a few months ago.

That left the Nats with few commitments going into the offseason. Catcher Keibert Ruiz is signed through 2030 but with his salary not reaching eight-figure territory unless the club picks up a 2031 option. Stephen Strasburg’s deal is still technically on the books through 2026 at $35MM annually, though there were deferrals in there and he also agreed to some unspecified deferral package as part of a retirement settlement.

With the fairly light slate of investments and the talent percolating up from the minors, there was an argument for a big splash to signal the end of the rebuild, like the Werth deal that Lerner referenced. Going into 2011, the Nats signed Werth to a seven-year, $126MM pact after five straight losing seasons. The Nats hovered around .500 in the first season of that deal but made the postseason in 2012, the first of five they would make in that decade, culminating with their aforementioned World Series win in 2019.

That’s not how the club played it this winter, however. They did sign some veterans, inking Trevor Williams, Shinnosuke Ogasawara, Michael Soroka, Bell, Amed Rosario, Jorge López, and Paul DeJong, but most of those guys got one-year deals. Williams and Ogasawara were the only guys to get two years and no one got to three. Williams got the largest guarantee at $14MM. The club’s most significant trade pickup was Nathaniel Lowe, who is going to make $10.3MM this year. He’s controllable for 2026 and will be due another arbitration raise, but the Nats will have the ability to trade him or non-tender him, depending on how things go this year.

In short, they didn’t make the big move to signal the end of the rebuild. As Lerner alluded to, the club’s odds are long this year. The division has three stronger teams in Atlanta, the Mets and Phillies. The FanGraphs Projected Standings have the Nats coming in at 73 wins, 14 games out of third place. The PECOTA Standings at Baseball Prospectus are even less optimistic, projecting the Nats for just under 68 wins, 18 games back of third.

Those are just estimates and aren’t gospel, but it’s probable that the Nats had an internal view of their club that was somewhat similar to those numbers. While signing someone like Pete Alonso may have been exciting, he couldn’t have single-handedly made up that gap of 14-18 wins. It’s also debatable whether he’s even an upgrade over Lowe in a vacuum.

Based on Lerner’s comments, however, it does seem like such a move will come at some point. For now, they will continue to focus on developing their internal players. That should include more reps for the aforementioned youngplayers on the roster, as well as pushing prospects like Brady House, Jarlin Susana, Travis Sykora and others into the mix. They can also add to their stock of future talent in a few months, as they won the top pick in the 2025 draft lottery.

Poll: Who Will Be The Cardinals’ Starting Catcher?

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The Cardinals attempted to kick off a youth movement this winter, letting veteran players like Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Gibson, and Andrew Kittredge depart in free agency while attempting to trade other veteran pieces under longer-term team control. Unfortunately for St. Louis, none of those trades came to pass: Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray both declined to waive their no-trade clauses, while Nolan Arenado expressed a willingness to waive his for certain clubs but no deal ultimately came together.

That’s left the club looking very similar to last year, but even with a largely identical roster there remain some areas where the club can stick to its initial plans. Contreras has been a catcher for his entire career, but entered 2025 working out at first base ahead of what’s expected to be a full-time move away from his duties behind the plate this year. With Contreras replacing Goldschmidt at first, that opens up the catcher position for a young player to step in and claim the starting catcher job as their own. The Cardinals have two candidates for that role: Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pages.

Herrera, 24, has already spent parts of three seasons in the majors after several years as a well-regarded catching prospect. His cups of coffee in the majors during the 2022 and ’23 seasons were limited to just 24 games and 66 plate appearances, but he got a more robust look at the big league level this past year and made the most of the opportunity. In 259 trips to the plate across 72 games last year, Herrera hit a strong .301/.372/.428 (127 wRC+). He showed decent pop and speed with five homers and five stolen bases in roughly a third of a full season’s slate of at-bats and complemented that with a solid understanding of the strike zone, as shown through his 20.5% strikeout rate and 9.7% walk rate.

A massive .370 BABIP is unlikely to be repeated over a full season, but his solid 8.9% barrel rate and the aforementioned plate discipline numbers suggest Herrera has the bat to be a solid hitter in the majors, and perhaps even well above average for the catcher position. Herrera has been an average to below average defender behind the plate to this point in his MLB career, however, with a lackluster arm that he pairs with average framing and blocking numbers. For a Cardinals club that struggled to make the adjustment from defensive stalwart Yadier Molina to bat-first slugger Contreras behind the plate, it would hardly be a surprise if the club preferred a more robust defender.

Enter Pages. The 26-year-old made his MLB debut with the Cardinals last year and got nearly the same amount of playing time as Herrera did with 68 games and 218 plate appearances. While he was similarly below average to Herrera when it came to throwing out runners in 2024, his pop time to second base was in the 75th percentile of catchers last year according to Statcast, while Herrera’s was in just the 27th percentile. That suggests more room to grow when it comes to controlling the running game, and Pages also rates out as a better pitch framer than Herrera with identical blocking numbers.

Those stronger defensive numbers could make Pages an attractive option as a regular behind the plate to a Cardinals organization that has long appreciated the value of a strong glove, but his offensive numbers could hold him back. Pages pales in comparison to Herrera as a hitter, with a slash line of just .238/.281/.376 (83 wRC+) last season. While Pages showed impressive power with seven homers in just 218 trips to the plate, he also struck out at an elevated 26.6% clip while walking only 6% of the time. That home run total also might be misleading about his overall offensive skill set, as well. Even as Pages managed to send more balls over the fence than Herrera did in fewer plate appearances, his 4.8% barrel rate was dwarfed by Herrera’s aforementioned 8.9% barrel rate, indicating that it was actually Herrera who made the strongest contact more consistently last year.

Of course, it’s also possible that the Cardinals could choose not to commit to either youngster as a true starter behind the plate, instead operating on a timeshare that’s closer to 50-50. Stepping out of the traditional starter-and-backup setup behind the plate could afford both players the opportunity to assert themselves as regulars, allowing performance to more naturally dictate playing time over the course of the season and beyond. That might come at the expense of comfort for the club’s pitchers if who is behind the plate is frequently changing on a day-to-day basis, but one possible solution to that would be to have each catcher work with a certain group of starting pitchers in order to ease their defensive burden from a planning and game-calling perspective while also affording those starters some level of consistency regarding who their battery mate is.

How do MLBTR readers think the Cardinals will approach the catcher position this year? Will they prioritize Herrera’s higher ceiling and better bat, Pages’s stronger defensive reputation, or settle for a timeshare involving both youngsters? Have your say in the poll below:

Who will the Cardinals use as their starting catcher?
Ivan Herrera will be the club's primary catcher. 47.56% (2,803 votes)
The club will use both catchers in an even timeshare. 41.33% (2,436 votes)
Pedro Pages will be the club's primary catcher. 11.11% (655 votes)
Total Votes: 5,894

Details On Negotiations Between Tigers, Alex Bregman

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Though Alex Bregman signed with the Red Sox, the Tigers were one of the finalists. It was reported last week that Detroit had an offer of six years and $171.5MM on the table with an opt-out after year two, though there were some deferrals involved. This week, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press provides some more details and context for the talks between the Tigers and Bregman’s agent Scott Boras.

As for that previously-reported offer from Detroit, Petzold reports that $40MM of it would have been deferred. That’s a sizable amount but notably less than the deal Bregman accepted with the Red Sox. Though the sticker price on the Boston deal is $120MM over three years, $40MM average annual value, there are $20MM in annual deferrals for a $60MM total.

Bregman didn’t accept that offer from the Tigers but seemed perfectly open to joining the club, as his camp made a few counter offers. One of them was for $200MM over seven years, which would have been a $28.6MM AAV. The other was $186MM over six years, $31MM AAV, with an opt-out after 2025. Neither of those offers from Bregman/Boras to the Tigers included deferred money.

Those asks align with previous reporting on what Bregman was looking for in free agency. In the earlier parts of the offseason, he and the Astros seemed to be having a bit of a staring contest. Houston offered $156MM over six years, $26MM AAV, but Bregman reportedly wanted to get closer to $200MM and didn’t like the idea of taking a pay cut in terms of AAV. As part of Bregman’s previous extension with Houston, he made $28.5MM salaries in each of the final two years of the deal. The Astros walked away, which led clubs like the Red Sox, Tigers and Cubs emerging as frontrunners for his services.

His two counter offers to Detroit would have put him a bit above that Houston AAV but it seems the Tigers weren’t quite willing to go there. The previously-reported six-year, $171.5MM offer from Detroit would have led to an AAV of $28.6MM in terms of the sticker price, but the deferrals would have knocked that down. The degree to which the AAV would have dropped would have depended on how far into the future that money was deferred, but it surely would have been below the $28.5MM AAV that Bregman seemed determined to top, or at least match.

When pivoting to a short-term deal, a player usually sacrifices a bit of overall guarantee for greater earning power in the short term. There were reports in the offseason that Bregman was resisting such a pivot, presumably because he had these decent six-year offers from Houston and Detroit. However, since they didn’t quite live up to his expectations, he eventually did turn to a shorter pact. The $40MM AAV he got from the Red Sox is apparently going to be calculated as $31.7MM for competitive balance tax purposes when factoring in the deferrals, but that still allows Bregman to get an AAV bump compared to his last deal.

Whether that will prove to be a wise pivot remains to be seen. Last offseason, several players pivoted to short-term pacts that fell below initial market expectations. Most prominently, the so-called “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman took this path. That has already paid off for Chapman and Snell, who each eventually landed the mega deals they were seeking. Chapman initially got $54MM over three years from the Giants but then signed a six-year $151MM extension late in the 2024 season. Snell got $62MM over two years from San Francisco, opted out and then got $182MM over five years from the Dodgers.

For Bellinger and Montgomery, the jury is still out. Bellinger got $80MM over three years from the Cubs, had a good-not-great season and decided not to opt out. He has since been traded to the Yankees and has another opt-out chance after this season. Montgomery got just one-year and $25MM guaranteed but with a vesting option. He vested the $20MM player option and bumped the value to $22.5MM by making at least 18 starts, but decided not to return to free agency after posting a 6.23 earned run average. Montgomery left Boras and later accused the agent of having “butchered” his free agency.

Like those players, Bregman has opt-outs after each year of his deal. He clearly had an idea of where he considered his value to be and went out looking for it this winter. He didn’t fully get everything he was looking for, leaving some long-term money on the table to get the AAV he wanted in the short term. He will have the ability to try again in the future, perhaps as soon as eight-ish months from now.

For the Tigers, though they didn’t get a deal done, it does showcase a greater willingness to spend than they have otherwise. Since Scott Harris has taken over as president of baseball operations, they have avoided long-term commitments. No free agent has signed a deal longer than two years. The club did agree to a six-year extension with Colt Keith, but that only committed the club to his pre-existing window of control. The three club options could keep him around beyond that period but the club will also have the ability to walk away.

The Bregman negotiations show that there are no hard lines against making longer deals and that the club would consider making such an investment if the stars aligned. Perhaps the Tigers could circle back to Bregman next winter if he opts out, though their interest will naturally depend on how things play out in Detroit this year. Young infielders like Keith, Jace Jung, Trey Sweeney and Spencer Torkelson should all be vying for playing time and their performances could determine how forcefully the Tigers look to make a big infield addition next winter.

Twins To Give Harrison Bader “Significant” Playing Time In Left Field

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Harrison Bader has covered all three outfield positions in his career, but the vast majority of his playing time has come in center field. That shouldn’t come as any surprise. Bader’s bat is poor, to say the least; he has a career .698 OPS and 90 wRC+. However, most teams can stomach sub-par offense at a premier defensive position like center field, and Bader isn’t just any defender. With 50 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and 76 Outs Above Average (OAA) in his eight-year MLB tenure, Bader is one of the best outfielders the game has to offer. Since his debut in 2017, only four active outfielders have accumulated more DRS, and none has more OAA. That’s the kind of player almost any team would want in center field.

“Almost” is the key word in that sentence. Of those four active outfielders with more DRS than Bader over the last eight years, one is Byron Buxton. Buxton also ranks second to Bader in OAA, and on a per-game basis, Buxton far outpaces Bader in both metrics. On top of that, Buxton is the superior hitter, with an .844 OPS and 129 wRC+ over the past six seasons. And, of course, Buxton just so happens to be the starting center fielder (and the longest-tenured player) on the Twins – the same team with whom Bader signed a one-year, $6.25MM contract earlier this month.

When the Twins signed Bader, one might have thought his primary role would be as a backup for the oft-injured Buxton. Bader is rather injury-prone himself, and both players might benefit from splitting time at the demanding defensive position. Yet, it seems as if that won’t be Bader’s only job. On Monday, Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that the righty-batting Bader is expected to take over for either Trevor Larnach or Matt Wallner in a corner spot when the Twins are facing a southpaw starter. To that point, manager Rocco Baldelli told Helfand that Bader was more likely to play left field than right, given the outfield dimensions at Target Field.

Earlier today, Dan Hayes of The Athletic provided further details about Bader’s role in Minnesota. Hayes writes that the Twins will have the 30-year-old play left field “regularly,” and he will see “a significant amount of playing time” at the position.

Perhaps the Twins are hoping that Bader’s bat will play up if he has the platoon advantage more often. After all, his career 109 wRC+ against left-handed pitching would look perfectly acceptable in a corner spot. Then again, his offense has dropped off in recent years; his 95 wRC+ against lefties from 2022-24 might be more representative of the kind of hitter the Twins will get in 2025. Thus, the best way for Bader to contribute as a left fielder is to do what he does best: provide top-tier defense. Considering his strong track record in center field, one would think Bader could thrive at an easier defensive position. Indeed, it might take him a bit of time to adjust to the new role (he’s only played 13 MLB games in left) but his elite range and strong arm should play anywhere in the outfield. What’s more, his declining sprint speed – it has dropped in each of the past three years, going from the 97th percentile to the 74th – should be less of a concern in left. All told, left field still isn’t the best place for a player of Bader’s skill set, but if the Twins are concerned about starting Larnach (career 60 wRC+ in 187 PA vs LHP) and Wallner (career 44 wRC+ in 108 PA vs LHP) against lefties, it’s not the worst idea to prioritize defense in left field instead.

With all that said, Bader could still end up playing most of his games in center field. After all, Buxton has not started more than 87 games in center in a single season since 2017. So, there is little doubt the Twins signed Bader to be an insurance policy for Buxton. Yet, it seems as if that wasn’t the only reason, and Bader is going to be more than just a well-compensated backup in Minnesota. When Buxton needs a day off, the Twins will hardly lose a step (defensively) in center. Meanwhile, on days when Buxton and Bader are both patrolling the grass, this team will have one of the best defensive outfields in baseball, regardless of who’s standing in right.

Marlins Giving Jesus Sanchez Center Field Reps In Camp

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The Marlins will get Jesús Sánchez reps in center field this spring, manager Clayton McCullough said this morning (relayed by Isaac Azout of Fish on First). The 27-year-old still projects as Miami’s right fielder on most days but could see some action in center if he shows well in camp.

“We think he’s more than athletic enough, he’s done it in the past and he’s graded out well as an outfielder. To us, there’s no downside to do this in Spring Training,” McCullough said. The first-year skipper noted that he expects Dane Myers and Derek Hill to combine for the majority of playing time up the middle, though Sánchez could seemingly also factor in there.

Sánchez started nearly half of Miami’s games in center field back in 2022. He has moved almost exclusively to the corner outfield since then. He logged 58 innings in center two seasons ago and didn’t play there at all last year. Sánchez has primarily played right field while picking up a handful of starts in left.

The defensive grades have been solid, if unexceptional. Sánchez has graded as a league average defender by Statcast’s metrics in every season of his career. Defensive Runs Saved has been slightly more bullish on his corner outfield work, typically rating him a little better than average. DRS has graded him nine runs above average in over 3100 career innings. Both metrics felt his 2022 center field work was close to neutral.

Sánchez has average speed with good arm strength. He’s better suited for right field but probably athletic enough to play center on a part-time basis. Myers and Hill are each faster and better all-around athletes. They should provide better defense up the middle, but neither has much of an MLB track record. Myers, 29 next month, has a decent .265/.315/.407 slash over 66 career games. He has struck out in more than 30% of his plate appearances with a middling 5.6% walk rate. The 29-year-old Hill has hit .233/.276/.353 over parts of five MLB seasons.

Somewhat remarkably, the 27-year-old Sánchez is the most experienced hitter on Miami’s roster. He’s the only Marlins position player with over three years of service time. The former top prospect has settled in as a capable regular in right field. He has hit between 13 and 18 home runs in each of the last four seasons. He’s coming off a .252/.313/.417 showing that more or less aligns with his league average .240/.308/.428 career batting line.

The Marlins will have Sánchez in the everyday lineup somewhere in the outfield, most frequently in right. He could find himself on the move at the deadline. His $4.5MM arbitration salary makes him the second-highest paid player on the team behind Sandy Alcantara (not including the $17MM still owed to released outfielder Avisaíl García). He’s under club control for three seasons but could wind up as a non-tender candidate in a year or two as his projected salaries continue to climb. It stands to reason that the Marlins would be comfortable moving him if they find decent interest over the summer. Sánchez would be a slightly more valuable trade piece if he shows he’s an adequate center fielder, as that’d position him for a potential fourth outfield role on a contender.

Adam Ottavino, Red Sox Agree To Minor League Deal

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Adam Ottavino and the Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract, as first reported by Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Unsurprisingly, the deal comes with an invitation to big league spring training. Indeed, according to Nick O’Malley and Chris Cotillo of MassLive, the veteran reliever has already reported to camp. He will earn a $2MM salary in 2025 if he makes the MLB roster. Conversely, if Ottavino fails to make the 40-man roster out of camp, he will have the freedom to opt out of his contract and return to free agency (per O’Malley and Cotillo). This is Ottavino’s second stint in the Red Sox organization.

Ottavino, 39, made his MLB debut as a starter for the Cardinals in 2010. However, the Rockies converted him to a relief role after claiming him on waivers in 2012, and the right-hander has been one of the most prolific relievers in the game ever since. Over the past 13 seasons with the Rockies (2012-18), Yankees (2019-20), Red Sox (2021), and Mets (2022-24), Ottavino has pitched 720 2/3 innings with a 3.33 ERA. In that time, he ranks fifth among all relievers in appearances and third in innings pitched. He has remained durable into his late thirties, making at least 60 appearances in each of the past four years. Even more impressive, he has not been on the injured list since 2018.

With all that in mind, it’s easy to see why an MLB team would still be interested in Ottavino, despite his advanced age. His 4.34 ERA this past season wasn’t particularly impressive, but he is only one year removed from a 3.21 ERA season in 2023 and only two years removed from producing an incredible 2.06 ERA in 2022. Moreover, his underlying numbers in 2024 suggest he can still be a back-end bullpen weapon. He pitched to a 3.19 xERA and 3.27 SIERA thanks to a deep arsenal of pitches that helped him thrive as both a strikeout arm and a weak contact artist; his strikeout rate and hard-hit rate both ranked above the 80th percentile, according to Baseball Savant.

On the flip side, it’s worth pointing out that Ottavino struggled with his control down the stretch last season. While his 3.86 ERA in August and September was actually lower than his 4.54 ERA over the first four months of the season, his walk rate shot up from 7.6% to 13.5% over the final two months of the year. Even worse, his strikeout rate dropped from 29.8% from April to July to 25.7% in August and September. That could explain why the Mets did not use him at all in the NL Wild Card Series or the NLDS, and why they left him off of their NLCS roster entirely. It might also explain why the veteran was forced to sign a non-guaranteed contract this winter.

Still, with a strong spring, Ottavino has a good chance to earn a job in Boston’s bullpen. Aside from free agent signing Aroldis Chapman and 2024 breakout arm Justin Slaten, the Red Sox have plenty of uncertainty in their arm barn. Liam Hendriks and Garrett Whitlock are coming off of major injuries, while buy-low free agent signing Justin Wilson has not been an effective bullpen arm for several years (5.34 ERA from 2021-24). Meanwhile, names like Greg Weissert, Josh Winckowski, Brennan Bernardino, and Luis Guerrero are hardly locks to make the Opening Day roster. After signing Wilson and Chapman, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that upgrading the bullpen remained a priority. If Ottavino continues to pitch the way he has for most of his career, he should certainly qualify as an upgrade for Boston’s ’pen.

D-Backs, Geraldo Perdomo Agree To Four-Year Extension

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February 18: The Diamondbacks have officially announced Perdomo’s extension. The shortstop will address the media today, along with general manager Mike Hazen.

February 17: The Diamondbacks have reportedly reached agreement with shortstop Geraldo Perdomo on a four-year extension that’ll cover the 2026-29 seasons. There’s also a fifth-year club option. Perdomo, a client of Republik Sports, is guaranteed $45MM. The deal buys out his final two arbitration seasons and at least two would-be free agent years, with the option covering a third free agent season.

Perdomo has a little over three years of major league service. He’d already agreed to a $2.55MM salary to cover his first season of arbitration. That is unchanged. He’ll collect a $5MM signing bonus and will earn $5MM in 2026, $8MM in ’27, $11MM in ’28, and $13MM in ’29. The option is valued at $15MM and comes with a $3MM buyout. His 2028-30 salaries could escalate if he finishes in the top 10 in MVP balloting. Perdomo had been on track to hit free agency in advance of his age-28 season. If the D-Backs exercise their option, he’d get to the market at age 31.

The switch-hitting Perdomo has established himself as Arizona’s shortstop behind a solid glove and strong plate approach. He debuted in 2021 but didn’t get a real opportunity until the following season. He provided very little offensively as a rookie, but he has been a league average hitter over the last two years.

Perdomo had an excellent first half in 2023. He earned an All-Star nod behind a .271/.378/.408 showing. The offense cratered coming out of the All-Star Break, as he managed only a .214/.322/.297 line in the second half. Nevertheless, manager Torey Lovullo declared early in last year’s Spring Training that he remained committed to Perdomo as the everyday shortstop.

Last season got off to a rough start. The middle infielder suffered a meniscus tear in his right knee within the first two weeks of the season. He underwent surgery that shelved him until early June. Perdomo played well upon returning, hitting .274/.345/.380 with 20 doubles and a pair of homers across 361 plate appearances. He carries a .258/.349/.366 slash in nearly 900 trips to the plate over the last two seasons.

Perdomo has a throwback offensive approach. He has drawn walks at a strong 11.3% clip while keeping his strikeout rate to a modest 16.3% since the start of 2023. He has 41 doubles and six triples with only nine home runs over that stretch. He ranks near the bottom of the league in hard contact rate and average exit velocity, but he rarely chases stuff off the plate or gets beat within the strike zone. Only Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan have a lower swinging strike rate among hitters with at least 500 plate appearances over the last two seasons.

The small-ball game even extends to bunting. Perdomo led the majors in sacrifices in both 2022 and ’23. He finished tied for sixth in that category last year despite the injury absence. While he doesn’t have great top-line speed, Perdomo has been an efficient basestealer and rates as a solid overall baserunner.

Public metrics have painted a varying picture of the defense. Statcast has graded him as a league average shortstop in each of his three full seasons. Reviews from Defensive Runs Saved have bounced around. DRS had Perdomo a few runs below average in both 2022 and ’23 but credited him at +10 runs last year, which tied for fifth-best at the position.

Arizona likes Perdomo’s game enough to commit to him at shortstop despite the presence of top infield prospect Jordan Lawlar. The 22-year-old ranks as Arizona’s best prospect and in the top 15 overall on Baseball America’s Top 100 list. Lawlar had a cup of coffee late in the ’23 season and would likely have gotten his first significant MLB opportunity last year had he not gotten injured. He’s likely to open this year in Triple-A but should be a factor at some point midseason. His long-term future is probably at third base with Eugenio Suárez hitting free agency next offseason. The Diamondbacks have Perdomo and Ketel Marte signed for multiple years beyond this one.

The D-Backs have pushed payroll to franchise-record heights this offseason. They’re going into the season with a player payroll north of $195MM, according to RosterResource. That’s well ahead of last year’s $163MM Opening Day mark, which was itself an organizational high. They have nearly $90MM coming off the books next winter. Suárez, Jordan Montgomery, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and Josh Naylor are all hitting free agency. They’ll have a lot of work to do, especially on the pitching staff, but there’s enough future flexibility to make an extended commitment to Perdomo.

Mike Rodriguez first reported that the D-Backs were signing Perdomo to an extension. ESPN’s Jeff Passan had the four-year, $45MM guarantee beginning in 2026 with the fifth-year option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first to report that the option could push the contract to $57MM, while escalators could add another $15MM. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic had the full salary breakdown, while Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the MVP bonuses.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

The Opener: Full-Squad Workouts, Sims, Mets

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As Spring Training gets fully underway, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Full-squad workouts for late arrivals:

The majority of clubs have already fully reported to Spring Training, but the handful that have not yet done so are set to host their first full-squad workouts today. In Florida’s Grapefruit League, that group of stragglers consists of the Braves, Orioles, Astros, Blue Jays, and Nationals. Meanwhile, the Guardians, Rockies, Brewers, and Mariners are the last teams to get Spring Training fully underway in Arizona’s Cactus League. A handful of notable position players will be appearing on the field in their new uniforms for the first time in Florida, including Jurickson Profar with Atlanta, Anthony Santander with Toronto, and Christian Walker with Houston.

2. Nats, Sims close to deal?

Right-hander Lucas Sims is reportedly nearing a deal with the Nationals as the right-hander looks to rebound from an up-and-down season with the Reds and Red Sox last year. The 30-year-old was coming off the best season of his career in 2023, where he pitched to an excellent 3.10 ERA (151 ERA+) in 61 innings of work while striking out 27.9% of opponents. In the first half with Cincinnati last year, Sims took a step back from those lofty numbers but remained effective with a 3.57 ERA (124 ERA+) and a 26% strikeout rate in 35 1/3 innings of work. The wheels came off after a midseason trade to Boston, however, and Sims was torched to the tune of a 6.43 ERA in 15 innings. Should he reach a deal with the Nationals, he’ll look to turn things around as a veteran relief option for a young D.C. club alongside Jorge Lopez after the Nats non-tendered longtime closer Kyle Finnegan back in November.

3. Rotation help back on the menu in New York?

In an offseason where the Mets landed Juan Soto and brought back Pete Alonso to alter the complexion of their lineup, they did relatively little to augment their starting pitching this winter. After watching Luis Severino walk in free agency, the club brought back Sean Manaea on a new contract and added Frankie Montas, Clay Holmes, and Griffin Canning to its rotation mix. At first glance, it appeared a largely unproven rotation mix with plenty of question marks. That’s even more true now that Montas is dealing with a lat strain that will shut him down beyond Opening Day, which will cause him to miss at least a month to open the season.

It’s not hard to imagine the loss of Montas spurring the Mets to further augment their rotation mix, and a handful of interesting options remain available in free agency. A reunion with Jose Quintana could still come together, and other players like Kyle Gibson, Andrew Heaney, and Spencer Turnbull are also still available on the market. A poll of MLBTR readers last week characterized Quintana as the best starting pitcher remaining on the market, though both Heaney and Turnbull also received significant support as well.

Rhett Lowder, Andrew Abbott Slightly Behind In Camp

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A pair of Reds starters are slightly behind in the early portion of camp. The Reds revealed last week that rookie right-hander Rhett Lowder was delayed in January by minor elbow soreness that arose during his offseason work (relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Meanwhile, lefty Andrew Abbott tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he has taken things slowly after his ’24 season was cut short by a shoulder strain.

While any kind of elbow/shoulder soreness for a pitcher raises some alarm, the Reds don’t seem especially concerned by either injury. Lowder began a throwing program this morning (as noted by Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Abbott has thrown a couple bullpen sessions in the lead-up to Spring Training. He tells Sheldon that he’s likely to throw another bullpen session or two before facing hitters in a simulated game or batting practice.

The southpaw indicated that he still believes he’s on track for Opening Day. Terry Francona was less committal, largely out of an abundance of caution. “I don’t even think about that just because I think that’s where you make mistakes, when you put an artificial deadline,” Cincinnati’s manager told Sheldon. “We’re going to do what’s right for every player. If somebody isn’t ready, whether it’s him or somebody else, we’ll figure out a way to make it work until they’re ready.”

If healthy, Lowder and Abbott will vie for roles at the back of Francona’s starting staff. Hunter Greene will be at the top of the rotation. Trade pickup Brady Singer is locked into a spot. Nick Martinez has the flexibility to move between starting and long relief, though he seems likely to begin the year in the rotation after accepting a $21.05MM qualifying offer. That’d leave two jobs for the group comprising Lowder, Abbott, Nick Lodolo and perhaps Carson Spiers or Graham Ashcraft. The latter two could find themselves in the bullpen.

Lowder, the seventh overall pick in 2023, made a case for a rotation spot late last season. Cincinnati called him up in August. He took the ball six times and turned in a 1.17 earned run average across 30 2/3 innings. His strikeout and walk profile was nowhere near as impressive as the ERA, but that’s not especially surprising for a 22-year-old attacking MLB hitters for the first time. Lowder had excellent peripherals across 22 starts for Triple-A Louisville, where he turned in 3.64 ERA through 108 2/3 frames. He fanned more than a quarter of opponents against a 5.4% walk rate while getting ground-balls at a strong 51.7% clip.

Abbott has posted a 3.78 ERA in 46 starts over the last two seasons. While he put up a sub-4.00 ERA in each year, his underlying marks went in the wrong direction last season. Abbott’s strikeout rate fell by nearly seven points from his strong 26.1% mark as a rookie. He missed fewer bats on a per-pitch basis and became more susceptible to the home run ball. The Virginia product landed on the IL with the shoulder injury in the middle of August.

Kennedy: Red Sox Expect To Pay CBT In 2025

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Red Sox president Sam Kennedy spoke to members of the media today, including Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic and Chris Cotillo of MassLive. He confirmed that the club is over the line when it comes to the competitive balance tax and expects to stay there, with room to possibly make additions.

Public estimates of the club’s CBT number have them right around the line, which will be $241MM this year. RosterResource has them at $241.6MM while Cot’s Baseball Contracts has them at $240.4MM. Those calculations are unofficial and it seems that Boston’s internal calculations have them over the line.

A club’s final CBT calculation isn’t made until the end of the year. That means there’s some wiggle room to make adjustments now or midseason. For example, the Blue Jays were projected to pay the tax in 2024 but fell out of contention and sold off various players prior to the deadline, which allowed them to narrowly limbo under the line.

For the Sox, they could consider something like that, as clubs often do when they are right around the border. For instance, Masataka Yoshida has been in plenty of trade rumors and has an $18MM CBT hit on his deal. The Sox wouldn’t find any club to take on the whole thing but could perhaps unload part of it if they wanted to avoid the tax. In the past five years, the Sox have only paid the tax once, going narrowly over the line in 2022.

However, it doesn’t seem as though the club is particularly worried about the tax this year. Kennedy said back in November that the club was hoping to be aggressive this winter, building a club that was capable of winning 90 to 95 games, even if that involved paying the tax. For much of the winter, they didn’t make a huge free agent splash but finally did so last week by signing Alex Bregman to a three-year, $120MM pact. The deferrals in that deal reportedly knock it down closer to $90MM in terms of present-day value, but that lower figure still reportedly added $31.7MM to the club’s CBT calculation for the year.

As the season progresses, it’s always possible that the club pivots at the deadline. As mentioned, that’s how things went for the Jays last year. But that’s clearly not how the Sox plan on things going this year. Assuming the club stays in contention through the end of July, they will be looking to make additions without worrying about ducking under the tax line. Those additions could come in the next few weeks, with several free agents still available, though the club could also keep some powder dry for deadline additions to address midseason injuries and/or underperformance.

Since the club hasn’t paid the tax in the past two years, they would be a “first-time” payor in 2025. As such, they would have a 20% base tax rate for whatever they spend over the line. There’s also a 12% surcharge for going $20MM over and further surcharges if they eventually go $40MM or $60MM over the base.

It’s surely a refreshing uptick for Boston fans. Up until a few years ago, the Sox had spent many years as one of the top spenders in the league. They had a top five payroll in all but one year of the 2000-2020 period, winning four titles in that time. They dropped back to the middle of the pack more recently, with Cot’s having them 12th in the league in the past two seasons. They finished last in the American League East in 2022 and 2023, before finishing at .500 last year.

They haven’t climbed all the way back to their previous level, with RosterResource ranking their projected 2025 payroll as ninth in the majors. However, they’re only $11MM away from sixth place and it seems like there’s a good chance those standings will shift in the coming months.

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