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Mets Interested In Yan Gomes

By Mark Polishuk | November 22, 2018 at 8:59pm CDT

The Mets and Indians have engaged in trade talks involving catcher Yan Gomes, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino. Reports from earlier in the winter indicated that Cleveland was open to offers for some of its higher-paid veteran players, and while much of that speculation has centered around the Tribe’s available starting pitchers, Gomes has also generated “significant trade interest.”

Gomes would be a particularly good fit on a Mets team that is looking for an upgrade behind the plate. With Travis d’Arnaud recovering from Tommy John surgery (the latest in a long string of injuries for d’Arnaud), Kevin Plawecki and Tomas Nido are New York’s top two catching options, leaving lots of room for improvement. Gomes would bring not just solid defense and game-calling to the mix, but also a revived bat that saw him hit .266/.313/.449 with 16 homers in 2018, following three seasons of below-average offensive production. Since payroll is always a factor for the Mets, Gomes is also an attractive option due to a reasonable contract — $7MM in 2019, then a $9MM club option for 2020 ($1MM buyout) and an $11MM club option for 2021 (with another $1MM buyout).

Signing free agents like Yasmani Grandal or Wilson Ramos would cost the Mets much more money, though obviously the team would have to part with assets to pry Gomes out of Cleveland. The Mets are short on minor league depth, though the Tribe is probably looking for a more immediately helpful return for Gomes than just prospects, as the Indians fully intend to make another postseason appearance in 2019. Cleveland has a need for outfielders, though it would surely take more than just Gomes for the Mets to part with Michael Conforto or Brandon Nimmo.

The Indians and Mets collaborated on a notable trade in August 2017, which send Jay Bruce to Cleveland. The two sides also came close to finalizing a deal last offseason that would’ve sent Jason Kipnis to New York, before Mets ownership reportedly nixed the trade for financial reasons. While Kipnis is still with the Tribe, it isn’t clear if he would still be on the Mets’ radar now that Brodie Van Wagenen has taken over as New York’s general manager.

Offseason Outlook: Atlanta Braves

By Jeff Todd | November 22, 2018 at 7:26pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Braves’ intriguing assemblage of young talent has already proven capable of winning a surprise division title, but there’s still work to be done if GM Alex Anthopoulos is to preside over a perennial contender.

Guaranteed Contracts

Freddie Freeman, 1B: $65MM through 2021
Ender Inciarte, OF: $21.025MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
Julio Teheran, SP: $12MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 club option)
Darren O’Day, RP: $9MM through 2019
Tyler Flowers, C: $6MM through 2019 (includes buyout of 2020 option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Kevin Gausman (4.151) – $9.2MM
Mike Foltynewicz (3.163) – $5.5MM
Arodys Vizcaino (5.168) – $4.8MM
Adam Duvall (3.096) – $3.1MM
Dan Winkler (4.000) – $1.6MM
Jonny Venters (5.159) – $1.5MM
Sam Freeman (4.066) – $1.5MM
Charlie Culberson (3.084) – $1.4MM
Non-tender candidates: Duvall, Venters, Freeman

Free Agents

Brad Brach, Lucas Duda, Ryan Flaherty, Nick Markakis, Brandon McCarthy (retired), Peter Moylan, Rene Rivera, Anibal Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki

[Atlanta Braves Depth Chart | Atlanta Braves Payroll Outlook]

Braves fans rightly basked in the success of the club’s fun and youthful 2018 roster, which won the NL East and reached the postseason for the first time since 2013. Of course, as the club’s front office acknowledged, being bumped from the tournament by the Dodgers also served as a reminder of the work left to be done. Overcoming the consecutive National League champs isn’t the only looming hurdle — within the division alone, the Nationals, Phillies, and Mets are all positioned to add additional pieces this winter to their already-talented rosters.

It’s unlikely the Atlanta organization will out-spend those organizations, but that doesn’t mean it won’t have as much or more free cash to work with this winter than almost any (excepting the Phillies) of its chief rivals. The Braves have started each of the past two seasons at around $120MM in payroll. That’s expected to move up, due in no small part to a ballpark-driven profit surge, though the upper boundary isn’t really clear and may also not be reached during the offseason. As things stand, the team is slated to pay something on the order of $75MM to less than half of its roster: Freddie Freeman ($21MM), Darren O’Day ($9MM), Julio Teheran ($11MM), Ender Inciarte ($5MM), and Tyler Flowers ($4MM) have guaranteed contracts. Kevin Gausman, Mike Foltynewicz, and Arodys Vizcaino project to cost about $20MM, while the club will surely spend a few million more to keep some of its other, less-expensive arb-eligible players.

As MLBTR contributor Rob Huff just examined in full detail, it certainly seems as if the Braves will have something in the realm of $50MM to play with in 2019 payroll, if not even more, though that still probably comes with some caveats. For one thing, Anthopoulos has also repeatedly cautioned against expecting a monumental outlay in free agency. (For instance, he has said: “I think the one [signing] where you scratch and really push, and you want to call it overpay in years or dollars, you feel like that’s the one final piece….I don’t think we’re there yet right now.”) For another, the club may be wary of committing too much future money to lure free agents in a bid to improve the current roster. Binding up long-term payroll space, after all, could create downstream problems when it comes time to add new pieces and pay the young players who are currently forming such an intriguing core.

Wild spending won’t happen, but there’s flexibility aplenty. In theory, at least, the Braves can afford to acquire just about any player they want, and they can fit multiple significant salaries if they’re willing to forego the top-tier free agents. With so much near-term availability, one possible strategy would be to front-load any significant free-agent deals, thus increasing the value of their offer while keeping future balance sheets clear, much as the Cubs did when they signed Jon Lester. Meanwhile, the Braves have one of the most compelling treasure chests of trade assets in baseball. In particular, young arms abound, and the Braves will surely explore parting with some to condense a relatively expendable portion of their talent base into MLB assets.

So, where are the needs and how might they be addressed? While the roster holes are mostly on the position-player side, I’d actually argue that the pitching staff warrants just as much attention. That may raise some eyebrows at first glance, as the Braves received strong contributions from a variety of hurlers in both the rotation and bullpen in 2018. As a team, the Braves finished with the seventh-best ERA in baseball, but they were 11th in FIP, 16th in xFIP, and 18th by measure of SIERA. More importantly, virtually all of the team’s key pitchers outperformed their peripherals, some by quite a margin.

To be sure, the Braves do not lack for depth or youthful upside. But the club does not have the established, top-level performers on the mound that it does in its lineup. If Foltynewicz is something of an analog for Ozzie Albies — both have now turned in highly productive, albeit somewhat flawed, seasons — there’s no equivalent for Freddie Freeman (top-end star) or Ronald Acuna (phenom who has shown his ability plays over an extended stretch at the highest level).

That’s not to say that the Atlanta organization simply must have those kinds of players, though that’s arguably what they ought to be seeking. Sean Newcomb and Kevin Gausman both have interesting arsenals, but neither has established himself as anything approaching a rotation anchor. (Gausman did have a nice run upon landing in Atlanta, but his peripherals and broader track record tell a different story.) The Julio Teheran roller-coaster is by now well-documented. Mike Soroka has fascinating near and long-term potential — if healthy — while there’s plenty of talent but still plenty of uncertainty surrounding Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, Kyle Wright, Max Fried, Kolby Allard, and the variety of other promising hurlers who have already debuted, have already made it onto the 40-man roster, or are coming up behind that group. Simply put, the Braves can’t dole out MLB rotation opportunities to all of these arms, particularly given that the team has flipped the switch to contending. And the 40-man pressures will only build, both as near-term improvements are made and as additional talent presses toward the majors.

Adding a veteran piece to replace the outgoing Anibal Sanchez, or simply to re-sign him, feels a bit underwhelming. Rather, there’s a strong case to be made that this organization ought to put on a full-court press to get elite, established talent in the rotation, if not also the bullpen. The Braves could easily afford free agent Patrick Corbin, if they are willing to do a longer deal in order to grab his relative youth. He’s also a target for quite a few other clubs, of course. They might prefer a shorter commitment to Dallas Keuchel, J.A. Happ, or Charlie Morton, though it’s arguable that none of those hurlers has quite the upside the Braves ought to be seeking. That leaves the trade market for a big arm. The Braves should certainly also be heavily involved if the Indians get serious about dealing one of their three excellent starters — Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Trevor Bauer — or if the Mets are willing to send Noah Syndergaard to a division rival. Those players will all cost major talent.

My favorite pet theory, though, involves a match with the Diamondbacks on Zack Greinke, who is still owed $95.5MM in salary (plus a $2MM assignment bonus) but will only be on the books for three seasons. Greinke comes with a seemingly appealing blend of veteran gravitas and ongoing excellence; it’d be a splurge, but a measured one. Arizona would surely hang on to some of the obligation or include other talent to help balance things out; regardless, the Braves shouldn’t need to pony up their best young talent unless significant other pieces would come with him. That said, it is notable that the D’Backs have other assets that would make quite a lot of sense on the Braves roster, perhaps including outfielder David Peralta, or relievers Archie Bradley and Brad Boxberger.

Atlanta’s relief core isn’t an altogether different scenario from the rotation. Young southpaw A.J. Minter is a stud and Arodys Vizcaino still misses plenty of bats (at least when he’s healthy enough to pitch). Dan Winkler, Shane Carle, Jonny Venters, and Jesse Biddle were all useful MLB relievers, while Chad Sobotka showed promise. Darren O’Day has always been effective, so he’s a strong bounceback candidate. Several of the leftover rotation pieces could certainly check down into relief work.

Again, there’s no strict need, but there is opportunity. With short-term payroll space available, adding relief pitching is a great potential way to boost the team’s outlook while steering clear of long-term entanglements. Some fans will clamor for the return of Craig Kimbrel, but he figures to take a larger and longer contract than will be comfortable for the Braves. Veteran David Robertson is still performing at a high level and might be a reasonable risk, while Jeurys Familia presents a younger target with plenty of high-leverage experience. Adding a lefty is arguably not a priority, but Zach Britton and Andrew Miller are intriguing players to take a risk on; the latter may be particularly interested in the possibility of playing near his Florida home. The Braves also have just the right kind of assets to entice the Mariners to part with Edwin Diaz, the jewel of the relief market. If his price proves too lofty, Seattle’s Alex Colome might still present a worthwhile target, as might Mychal Givens of the Orioles. There are loads of other possibilities among both righties and lefties.

Even if the Braves don’t make major additions in either area of the pitching staff, they’ll likely find some veteran depth pieces that fit. It’s a much greater necessity, though, to address some of the openings on the position-player side of the roster. A major element of the Braves’ success in 2018 was the fact that both Nick Markakis and Kurt Suzuki exceeded expectations. Those veterans are now gone — Suzuki, at least, has already firmly moved on by signing with the Nats, while Markakis is still a free agent — leaving opening and opportunity in their wake.

Replacing Markakis is perhaps the one true imperative facing Anthopoulos this winter. The outfield has two clear regular assets: Acuna, an incredible talent who just won the NL Rookie of the Year Award, and center fielder Ender Inciarte, who is at most an average hitter but delivers strong value in the field and on the bases. While a return for Markakis perhaps profiles as a backup option, his uninspiring second half and relatively advanced age makes a new addition seem likely.

There has been plenty of debate over Atlanta’s ability and willingness to make a real run at Bryce Harper. Needless to say, he’d come with plenty of risk, but also the potential to be another core asset. It’s frankly difficult to know how plausible that outcome really is, but it seems fair to assume generally that bigger-budget clubs will have a greater tolerance for the long-term risks than will the Braves. Otherwise, the top two corner pieces on the open market are Andrew McCutchen and Michael Brantley, and it’s easy to imagine the Braves coming away with either. A.J. Pollock is a center fielder by trade, but that shouldn’t take him out of consideration entirely. There is a variety of cheaper, likely part-time players also available via free agency.

On the trade market, one-year rental targets include Nicholas Castellanos and Avisail Garcia, though both have their limitations and aren’t particularly cheap. It’s conceivable the club could line up some kind of contract swap arrangement, possibly involving Teheran and/or O’Day, with players such as Kole Calhoun, Wil Myers, and Dexter Fowler representing conceivable fits if the money is sorted in a favorable manner. There aren’t many intriguing, obviously available corner outfielders who come with affordable control rights. David Peralta and Kyle Schwarber could hold appeal, though it’s hardly imperative for their respective teams to move them. The Padres, Phillies, and Brewers all have multiple youthful outfielders who are likely available via trade, though it’s fair to wonder whether any is a sure enough commodity to be installed as a primary corner piece for the Braves.

If there’s a dream player that just might be available, it’s Mitch Haniger of the Mariners. He’ll turn 28 before entering his final pre-arb year, leaving four cheap seasons of prime years still to go. Haniger improved on his impressive first season in Seattle, slashing a robust .285/.366/.493 with 26 home runs in 683 plate appearances last year. The M’s, of course, are launching a roster tweaking offseason in which they won’t prioritize their ability to contend in 2019. With an eye on a quick rebound, the Seattle organization likely does not intend to move Haniger. But it’ll have to consider the possibility and will assuredly have its interest piqued by many of the Braves’ top prospects, many of whom could be ready to contribute by the time the Seattle club hopes to be gearing back up. There are loads of other interesting potential matches between these organizations, each of which are led by GMs with a flair for dramatic swaps. (As noted above, Diaz would look awfully nice anchoring the Braves pen.) And the Atlanta payroll flexibility could leave the club well-situated to absorb some bad contracts to help facilitate a move.

That’s just supposition, of course, but it’s the type of deal that Anthopoulos should and surely will explore in the outfield and other positions. Catcher, clearly, is another need, though it’s one that may well be filled by a less-than-splashy acquisition. With the sturdy Tyler Flowers still on hand, the Braves could seek a Suzuki replacement that will function in a timeshare. Of course, the prospect capital on hand also makes Atlanta a prime possible pursuer of Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, who staked his claim in 2018 as the top catcher in the sport. That’s the kind of major move that could firmly tilt the balance in the Braves’ favor, though indications are that the Marlins’ asking price is exceedingly painful at the moment.

Top free agent Yasmani Grandal could also be a target. Anthopoulos is plenty familiar with him from their mutual time with the Dodgers, and it’s possible there will be a chance to achieve value given Grandal’s notably tough postseason. After all, he has been an exceptional all-around regular season performer for some time now. Wilson Ramos is a possibility, though he’d probably fit better on an American League roster, while valued defender Martin Maldonado and the offensively proficient Robinson Chirinos are perhaps the best of the remaining open-market options.

The remainder of the position-player mix offers several conceivable avenues. One of the most interesting questions is to what extent the organization will at least consider making a move on the left side of the infield. We know, we know, Anthopoulos has repeatedly expressed confidence in Dansby Swanson and Johan Camargo. It seems obvious he’d be comfortable rolling with them again at short and third, respectively, though it remains tantalizing to consider the alternatives. Manny Machado is about as unlikely a target as Harper, but can’t be ruled out entirely. Josh Donaldson would be a great player to take a short-term risk on, bringing quite a lot of upside while keeping the seat warm for rising prospect Austin Riley. Even Mike Moustakas could be a part of an infield rotation. In any event, adding a significant player at the hot corner would likely mean bumping Swanson and Camargo into joint duties at short and as reserves elsewhere. That could make for a strong overall unit. It may be a low-likelihood outcome, but an upgrade on the left side seems at least a possibility, particularly if Swanson or Riley is included in some kind of significant trade.

Finally, position-player depth stands as a general goal — though the route to achieving it will depend upon what other moves are made. Utilityman Charlie Culberson is in line to return after a productive (albeit questionably sustainable) 2018 season. Beyond that, there are two openings for reserve/platoon pieces. There’s probably an argument that the club ought to move on from Rio Ruiz if he can’t hold down a MLB roster spot, given the ever-present demand for more 40-man space, though he remains optionable and could be stashed at Triple-A as a depth piece. At a minimum, though, he’ll end up competing with some non-roster invitees and other existing assets in camp.

At least one bench spot will surely go to a player with significant outfield experience. Even if they add a true regular at one corner outfield spot, the Braves could hunt for a reserve who can spell Inciarte at times against lefties, as that has been a particular area of struggle for him. Adam Duvall has the right profile as a complementary piece, as he’s a good defender with power who could also be a worthwhile late-inning pinch hitter and defensive substitute, but his disappointing 2018 season makes his projected salary seem steep. Acuna’s ability to play center means the Braves have plenty of flexibility in what type of player they end up landing; the skillset of the primary corner piece (as discussed above) will surely be a factor in driving the decision-making on the reserve option.

Clearly, there’s abundant opportunity here for Anthopoulos to sort through. What’s most exciting for the Braves organization is the fact that the possibilities extend both to the near and long-term. The core is not only capable of winning now, but is still fully emerging as talent continues to surge upward. Meanwhile, Atlanta has ample open 2019 payroll as well as long-term contract capacity, since its only lengthy commitments on the books (Freeman, Inciarte) look to be firmly in the black. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the organization fails to remain competitive for some time to come, though there’s still plenty of variability remaining in the season to come and beyond. With the Braves looking to move from the realm of overflowing promise to that of perennial achievement, this offseason seems sure to present some highly consequential decisions to Anthopoulos and company.

Angels To Sign Dustin Garneau To Minors Deal

By George Miller and Mark Polishuk | November 22, 2018 at 7:13pm CDT

The Angels have agreed to a minor league contract with catcher Dustin Garneau, MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo reports (Twitter link). The White Sox outrighted Garneau off their 40-man roster after the season, following a year that saw the 31-year-old appear in just a single big league game.

Over the previous three seasons, Garneau saw substantially more action in part-time duty with the Rockies and Athletics, playing in 87 games total from 2015-17. For his career, Garneau has posted a .194/.269/.321 slash line over 280 Major League plate appearances. Originally a 19th-round pick for Colorado in 2011, Garneau has put up solid numbers (.253/.340/.455) over 2675 minor league PA, though he has yet to display that sort of hitting prowess at the MLB level.

Garneau, 31, will now toss his hat into an Angels’ catching mix that currently includes Jose Briceno and Kevan Smith as the only full-time catchers on the 40-man roster. The Halos have been heavily rumored to be targeting catchers this offseason, so it seems likely that Garneau, Briceno, and Smith will be battling for backup duty in Spring Training.

Trade/Free Agent Rumors: Segura, Diaz, Greinke, Happ

By Mark Polishuk | November 22, 2018 at 5:47pm CDT

The Phillies are expected to be one of the offseason’s busiest teams, and thus it’s no surprise they’re heavily featured in this latest roundup of hot stove news from MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi. Some highlights…

The Phillies have interest in Mariners shortstop Jean Segura and closer Edwin Diaz. We’ve already heard Segura’s name linked to the Padres and Yankees in rumors, and Philadelphia could also make sense as a landing spot given their lack of production from the shortstop position (a sub-replacement -1.8 bWAR in 2018). Trading for Segura also wouldn’t necessarily close the door on the possibility of signing Manny Machado, as the Phils could use Machado at third base. Then again, the four years and $58MM remaining on Segura’s contract makes him a cheaper alternative to Machado, though Segura also has some control over his future in the form of a full no-trade clause. It isn’t yet clear if the M’s would consider dealing Diaz since, with four years of control remaining over the star closer, the team would be theoretically reloaded and ready to contend while Diaz is still on the roster. The Braves are another team with interest in Diaz, Morosi reports.
The Diamondbacks “are confident” they’ll be able to trade Zack Greinke without having to absorb any of the $95.5MM still owed on the right-hander’s contract over the next three seasons., a source tells Morosi. It’s a very short list of teams with the available payroll space and willingness to make such a big move, which is why Morosi feels the Phillies “are the most logical suitors.” While the Phillies are also checking into a plethora of other pitching options (including Patrick Corbin and J.A. Happ), Greinke would cost the team less than Corbin would in a long-term commitment. Acquiring Greinke would also come at a player cost, of course, though it’s possible Arizona would take only a relatively middling prospect return just for the sake of getting Greinke entirely off the books.
Speaking of Happ, the veteran left-hander is generating a lot of buzz in free agency. In addition to the Phillies, the Angels, Astros, and Brewers are new teams who Morosi adds to the already-lengthy list of clubs (the Blue Jays, Reds, Twins, White Sox, and Yankees) who have previously been rumored to have some level of interest in Happ’s services. Of the newly-cited teams, Milwaukee and Houston offer Happ the best chance of competing for a World Series in 2019, while the Angels and Phillies are a few steps behind at this point of the offseason, though obviously L.A. and Philadelphia each have designs on significant roster upgrades this winter.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/22/18

By Mark Polishuk | November 22, 2018 at 4:52pm CDT

Rounding up some recent minor league transactions from around the baseball world….

The Marlins have signed outfielder Gabriel Guerrero to a minor league deal, as Guerrero announced on his personal Instagram page. The 24-year-old has bounced around the farm systems of the Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Reds during his eight-year pro career, finally cracking the big leagues in 2018 by appearing in 14 games for Cincinnati. He was outrighted off the Reds’ 40-man roster in October, paving the way for another trip to free agency. Guerrero has a .273/.314/.413 slash line and 80 home runs over 3612 PA in the minors, showing glimpses of potential but never really establishing himself as a top-tier prospect.
The White Sox re-signed first baseman Matt Skole to a minors deal, as per Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Originally a fifth-round pick for the Nationals in the 2011 draft and a noteworthy prospect in Washington’s farm system, injuries hampered Skole’s progress, and he didn’t make his MLB debut until last season. After joining Chicago’s organization as a minor league free agent last winter, Skole appeared in four games for the Sox and accumulated 13 plate appearances, before being outrighted following the season. The 29-year-old Skole has a career .250/.356/.441 slash line and 116 homers over 3284 career PA in the minors.
Also from Eddy, the Mariners signed infielder Orlando Calixte to a minors pact. Calixte spent all of 2018 at the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate before electing to become a free agent after the season. Calixte has been a shortstop for much of his nine-year professional career, though he has also seen significant time as a second and third baseman, and in all three outfield spots. This versatility helped him reach the majors in 2015 (two games with the Royals) and 2017 (29 games with the Giants) despite only hitting a modest .249/.303/.385 over 3628 PA in the minors.

NL Central Notes: Iglesias, Cubs, Pirates

By George Miller | November 22, 2018 at 3:30pm CDT

In the wake of Raisel Iglesias’s newly-signed deal with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer suggests that Iglesias may operate in an altered role for the club in 2019, which may have been part of the team’s motivation to guarantee his salary for the next three seasons. Having worked as the Reds’ full-time closer for the previous two years, Iglesias may be utilized in a greater variety of game situations moving forward. Free of added pressure to eclipse certain statistical benchmarks as a means of boosting his arbitration salary, Iglesias may feel more comfortable pitching in non-save situations, allowing new manager David Bell to deploy his best bullpen weapon in a more versatile role. General manager Dick Williams acknowledged that getting Iglesias and team management on the same page was a factor in finalizing a new contract with his star reliever; now, Iglesias and the team can concern themselves solely with winning games, rather than worrying about the counting stats that influence arbitration salaries.

All this is not to say that Iglesias has struggled as a closer; in fact, he has excelled in the role, converting 58 of 64 save opportunities over the last two years and notching a 2.43 ERA over that span. Rather, this will simply grant Bell and new pitching coach Derek Johnson increased flexibility in their usage of Iglesias as they seek to maximize his value. It should be noted that Josh Hader, who often pitched multiple innings and entered in high-leverage situations regardless of inning, pitched under Johnson when he served as the Brewers’ pitching coach for the last three seasons.

MLBTR Readers Predict Teams For McCutchen, Kikuchi, Donaldson, And More

By Tim Dierkes | November 22, 2018 at 1:38pm CDT

MLBTR’s free agent prediction contest closed on November 18th, and earlier this week we ran through our readers’ team predictions for each of the top ten free agents. Now, let’s check out another batch of reader picks:

11. Andrew McCutchen – Indians (13.6%), Braves (9.3%), Cubs (9.2%), Pirates (5.4%), Phillies (4.9%), Yankees (4.8%), Nationals (4.3%), Mets (4.3%), Cardinals (4.0%), White Sox (3.6%), Mariners (3.4%), Giants (3.2%), Rockies (3.2%), Diamondbacks (3.1%)

12. Yusei Kikuchi – Padres (18.8%), Mariners (12.0%), Dodgers (11.5%), Angels (9.7%), Giants (4.8%), Yankees (4.5%), Red Sox (4.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Rangers (3.2%)

13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals (50.1%), Braves (6.1%), Indians (6.0%), Mets (4.5%), Phillies (4.0%), Angels (3.8%), White Sox (2.8%)

14. Charlie Morton – Astros (35.6%), Phillies (13.0%), Nationals (5.9%), Brewers (5.1%), Braves (3.4%), Angels (3.2%), Athletics (2.8%)

15. Wilson Ramos – Nationals (16.8%), Astros (13.4%), Braves (10.1%), Dodgers (10.1%), Mets (7.3%), Phillies (6.3%), Angels (6.0%), Brewers (3.6%), Mariners (3.6%), Rays (3.0%), Rockies (2.7%), Athletics (2.5%)

16. Marwin Gonzalez – Astros (10.3%), Twins (7.0%), Cubs (6.7%), Yankees (5.7%), Mets (5.5%), Giants (5.1%), Rockies (4.7%), Brewers (4.7%), Angels (4.4%), Indians (4.2%), Braves (4.0%), Phillies (4.0%), Dodgers (3.5%), Nationals (3.4%), Athletics (3.2%), Cardinals (3.2%), White Sox (3.0%), Blue Jays (3.0%)

17. Jeurys Familia – Athletics (12.4%), Mets (9.5%), Twins (6.9%), Cubs (6.7%), Cardinals (6.2%), Red Sox (5.6%), Braves (5.5%), Dodgers (4.5%), Phillies (4.4%), Angels (4.1%), Indians (4.1%), Nationals (3.8%), Brewers (3.8%)

18. Zach Britton – Astros (11.1%), Red Sox (11.0%), Yankees (10.9%), Cubs (9.8%), Cardinals (8.0%), Dodgers (7.0%), Phillies (6.4%), Braves (5.8%), Mets (5.2%), Nationals (3.6%), Indians (3.4%)

19. David Robertson – Yankees (28.8%), Mets (11.7%), Red Sox (9.0%), Cubs (4.7%), Braves (4.5%), Cardinals (4.5%), Indians (3.5%), Dodgers (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Nationals (3.2%)

20. Adam Ottavino – Yankees (11.4%), Rockies (11.2%), Cardinals (7.9%), Dodgers (7.5%), Mets (7.1%), Red Sox (7.0%), Cubs (6.3%), Braves (4.9%), Nationals (3.4%), Phillies (3.4%), Indians (3.2%), Brewers (3.2%)

Rangers Claim Jack Reinheimer; Outright Eddie Butler, Ronald Herrera

By Steve Adams and George Miller | November 22, 2018 at 12:30pm CDT

Nov. 22: Butler has rejected his outright assignment and will instead enter free agency, according to Gerry Fraley of SportsDay. Acquired as part of the return for Cole Hamels, Butler’s departure leaves the Rangers with just two players from the Hamels trade still under team control.

Nov. 20: The Rangers announced Tuesday that they’ve claimed infielder Jack Reinheimer off waivers from the Cubs and also outrighted Eddie Butler and Ronald Herrera to Triple-A Nashville after the pair of righties cleared waivers.

Reinheimer, 26, has just 40 big league plate appearances under his belt, most of which came with the Mets in 2018. He’s batted just .143/.250/.143 in the Majors but can play all over the infield. He’s spent parts of three seasons in Triple-A, hitting .278/.343/.371 in 1376 PAs — rather timid production given the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. Reinheimer does have a minor league option remaining, so he can give Texas some infield depth next season.

Butler, 28 in March, was knocked around for a 5.62 ERA in 49 2/3 innings between the Cubs and Rangers in 2018. Texas acquired him as a secondary piece in the trade that sent Cole Hamels to Chicago, but the one-time premium prospect didn’t fare well in his limited time in the big leagues with the Rangers. Butler, the 46th overall pick by the Rockies in 2012, has a career 5.80 ERA in 263 2/3 innings.

Herrera, 23, was traded from the Yankees to the Rangers one year ago to the day in a move intended to create some roster flexibility in New York with the Nov. 20 deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 Draft looming. He didn’t pitch in 2018, though, after experiencing shoulder troubles in Spring Training and ultimately requiring surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his right arm.

Projecting Payrolls: New York Yankees

By Rob Huff | November 22, 2018 at 11:36am CDT

As we kick off the fifth installment of this series, here are links to the previous team payroll projections:

Philadelphia Phillies
Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles Angels
Atlanta Braves

If you have questions about financial information made available to the public and the assumptions used in this series, please refer to the Phillies piece linked above.

Today, we’re moving north to visit with the once and future biggest spenders in the game: the New York Yankees.

Team Leadership

The ownership portion of this section likely needs very little explanation, but a bit of history is actually instructive. Going back to the end of World War II, The Yankees were owned by Lee MacPhail, Dan Topping, and Del Webb from 1945-64. The team failed to reach the World Series in 1945 and 1946, then, improbably, played in the Fall Classic in all but three of the remaining years of their ownership run. CBS then purchased a controlling stake in the team in 1964 and the Yankees failed to make the playoffs during all 10 campaigns of corporate ownership.

Then, the Boss arrived. George Steinbrenner led a group of investors in purchasing the Yankees in 1973 for an unfathomable $10 million. While the team has had minority owners since then, the Steinbrenner family has held the reins with George relinquishing control to his son Hal and his three siblings in 2008, two years prior to George’s passing.

The baseball operations department is headed by senior vice president and chairman Brian Cashman. Cashman took control of the baseball operations department in early 1998 and promptly saw the team make the World Series five times in his first six years at the helm, winning three championships in the process. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly, Cashman’s job security has rarely been at issue despite the fact that the Bronx Bombers have won just one World Series title since 2000 (2009).

Historical Payrolls

Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Yankees, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.

Fasten your seatbelts, the payroll figures are about to get gaudy.

The Yankees surprisingly began the 2000s with a payroll of just $107.6 million and that figure held true in 2001 at $112.3 million. Then the spending boon started in 2002 as the team increased payroll by $13.6 million, $26.8 million, $31.4 million, and $24.1 million in four consecutive offseasons causing payroll to soar to the 2005 starting point above of $208.3 million. Incredibly, payroll has been largely stagnant since 2005 with only modest dips and climbs over the next 12 years before a notable drop in 2018 that reset the Yankees luxury taxpayer status (more on that below).

The Yankees have been a model franchise when it comes to finding ways to use their financial might to improve their club on talent beyond the Major League roster. The best recent example of this spending acumen came in the international amateur market in 2014 when the Yankees zoomed past their bonus threshold to sign one third of the top-30 prospects that year. It is overwhelmingly likely that this bonanza spurred Major League Baseball to revisit and revise the international spending limitations in the next iteration of the Collective Bargaining Agreement. To read more about this spending spree, check out this piece on Baseball Prospectus from Dustin Palmateer. Needless to say, if there is a way to use the club’s financial might to create a competitive advantage, the Yankees have done and will do it, even if significant taxes are at issue.

Speaking of taxes: since Major League Baseball instituted its first version of a luxury tax in 1997 through 2017, teams paid approximately $548,155,916 in taxes. The Yankees paid $329,519,651 of that amount, accounting for 60.1 percent of total luxury tax payments. Truly astonishing. Keep in mind that these tax payments do not include the taxes paid for overspending in the international marketplace. Simply put, the Yankees will spend and spend big, not that this is news to anyone.

Future Liabilities

The Yankees entered the offseason with a truly bizarre contract table: they had no guaranteed contracts with one year remaining, instead holding multi-year guarantees only. The recent re-signings of CC Sabathia and Brett Gardner added a pair of contract year players to the payroll table. Here are the guaranteed future dollars with club options highlighted in peach and player options — in this case, opt-out clauses — are highlighted in light blue.

We’ll start with Stanton. It was an imperfect debut season for the former National League Most Valuable Player, but on the whole, Stanton delivered what was expected: a whole bunch of home runs. His contract comes with two deeply intriguing facets. First, the Yankees enjoy a significant luxury tax benefit as a result of the inexpensive early year guarantees on his deal when with the Marlins and financial help Miami will send to New York in the mid-2020s. The Yankees should seek out players for whom they can pay exorbitant amounts while enjoying relatively depressed luxury tax figures. Stanton’s $22.7 million annual luxury tax hit is on par with the likes of Justin Upton, not befitting an in-prime superstar. Second, the 2026-28 commitments are comparatively very small given the influx of money from the Marlins. Assuming that the Yankees exercise their option on him in 2028, they’ll be responsible for just $49 million over those three years. In the meantime, obviously, they’ll pay an MVP level rate.

The other commitments are for the team’s three most recent marquee free agent acquisitions: Tanaka, Ellsbury, and Chapman. The returns for those three have been all over the place. Despite some control issues this past season, Chapman has largely excelled since returning starting with the 2017 season. At the other end of the spectrum, Ellsbury enjoyed a good first year with the Yankees in 2014, but he provided below-average production in 2015-17 before missing all of 2018 with a hip injury. Tanaka has occupied the space between stars and scrubs. He looked like an ace in 2014 and again in 2016. In the middle, he struggled with an elbow injury and since 2016, he has been a slightly above-average starter but not the ace that the Yankees hoped he would become. His value isn’t poor by any stretch, but he’s being paid at almost exactly his market rate.

As for the arbitration projections, the Yankees figure to spend a good amount on controllable talent with less than six years of service time. The Yankees don’t appear to have any obvious non-tender candidates. Here are their arbitration projections (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

It’s likely Gray finds himself wearing a new uniform when 2019 kicks off, but the front office will nevertheless take pleasure in seeing both Paxton and Severino occupying only arbitration salary slots instead of monster eight-figure annual salaries.

There is one name that comes with oodles of intrigue: injured shortstop Didi Gregorius. Gregorius underwent Tommy John surgery on October 17, an operation that will keep him on the shelf for months. With a $12.4 million arbitration payday on the way, could the Yankees consider non-tendering him, especially if he won’t be available until late in the 2019 season?

I don’t see it. His middle infield partner, Gleyber Torres, underwent Tommy John surgery on June 19, 2017, but he was ready for Spring Training in 2018, participating fully and playing the entire 2018 regular season starting on Opening Day. Torres needed only about eight months to return to full participation, though it’s possible that he would have been ready even earlier. If Gregorius is ready to return in mid-June, he’s certainly worth his arbitration estimate. It’s also possible that the Yankees come to a multi-year agreement with him in lieu of playing out his final year in advance of free agency.

What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?

When asked about how the team will fill out its rotation holes early in November, Cashman unsurprisingly explained that the Yankees will take whatever path necessary to build a winning rotation. “I think we’ll just gravitate to anything that will make sense,” Cashman said. “It could be a combination; something could make sense via trade in the same category as free agency. I’m interested in adding more than one pitcher. I need to, I think, add multiple. If I can do so, we’ll see.” While commenting on his preference to remain south of the luxury tax line, Cashman admitted what we all already know: “…because of the market we’re in and the ownership we have I know that we’re capable of and it’s a decision they ultimately will make when they’re forced to make it…” Quite simply, Cashman has openly admitted that big spending is a viable option, even if he publicly states a desire to avoid doing so.

Are the Yankees a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?

Yes.

We could spend a long time explaining why this is viable for the Yankees, but for a team with revenue estimated at $619 million as of 2017, it probably doesn’t require much in-depth examination to see how this works financially.

The more interesting question with the Yankees involves the fit of these two young stars. Incredibly, the Yankees’ top seven players by WAR in 2018 were four outfielders (Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, Stanton, and Gardner), two shortstops (Gregorius and Torres), and a third baseman (Miguel Andujar). Judge, Hicks, Gregorius, and Stanton all produced at star-level rates.

That said, it’s not terribly difficult to see the fit for Machado. Andujar’s rookie year defensive metrics were putrid. He could justifiably be moved to first base and/or designated hitter, or traded, opening up third base for Machado. Shortstop will be open to begin the season with Gregorius recovering from surgery and Torres also comes with Tommy John in his background, so Machado would be a safer bet to hold the spot defensively into the future, especially with Gregorius an impending free agent. Machado could easily cover shortstop or third base with minimal roster revisions.

But Harper? The Yankees would need to kick Harper to center field, enforcing a massive defensive downgrade for their outfield, move one of Judge, Stanton, or Harper to designated hitter, or trade one of their current corner outfield stars to clear a spot for Harper. Or they could do something even more surprising like moving one of Judge, Stanton, or Harper to first base, a risky defensive move.

I’m sure that Cashman would find a way for this to work. But the Harper fit is clearly tougher.

What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?

The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.

The Yankees’ payroll is going to go up. The only question is whether they sneak over the $200 million threshold or if they blow past it.

Assuming that Gray is gone but that Gregorius stays at his arbitration salary, the Yankees are staring at a cash payroll of $152.2 million with a luxury tax payroll of $164.9 million. There’s absolutely no chance that they’ll end the offseason with payroll figures that low.

They’re going to be major players for the elite free agents with cash, prestige, and a young core of premium talent to offer any players looking for a new fortune and a ring or two to go along with it…and that’s before we factor in that the Red Sox have won four World Series titles over the last 15 years while the Yankees have just one flag. Given their need for pitching, expect to hear plenty of Patrick Corbin, Dallas Keuchel, and J.A. Happ rumors, even after the acquisition of Paxton. And expect to hear Harper and Machado linked to the Bombers until the day they sign, be it in New York or elsewhere.

I could see them marrying Cashman’s desire to stay below the luxury tax line with a couple of impact additions, setting payroll above the $206 million tax line but below the maximum penalty threshold of $246 million. As a refresher, the Yankees will incur a 20 percent tax on amounts spent over $206 million and a 12 percent surtax on amounts over $226 million. Once spending reaches $246 million, the tax rate is 42.5 percent and the club would see its top draft selection lowered ten spots. Those penalties are tough to swallow.

I expect that the club will begin the 2019 season either in the first tax tier or narrowly into the second tax tier in order to maintain some flexibility for in-season acquisitions and to stay safely below that $246 million threshold. This will bring spending back in line with where it has been for much of the past decade and a half.

Projected 2019 Payroll: $220 million cash (approximately $232.7 million for luxury tax purposes)

Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $67.8 million

Indians Acquire Walker Lockett

By Steve Adams | November 22, 2018 at 10:26am CDT

Nov. 22: The Indians announced the trade, revealing that they sent 19-year-old righty Ignacio Feliz to San Diego in return. Feliz spent the 2017 season with Cleveland’s affiliate in the Dominican Summer League and the 2018 campaign with their Rookie-level affiliate in the Arizona League.

After some significant control issues in 2017, Feliz took a huge step forward in 2018 against older competition, pitching to a 3.00 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate well north of 50 percent in 45 innings. Encouragingly for Padres fans, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen opined that Feliz was the best prospect traded on the day of the 40-man deadline and provided a brief scouting report on the athletic young righty.

Nov. 20: The Padres are in agreement on a trade that’ll send right-hander Walker Lockett to the Indians, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell reports (via Twitter). In exchange, San Diego will receive a minor league pitcher who doesn’t need to be added to the 40-man roster in advance of tonight’s deadline to protect players from the 40-man roster.

For San Diego, the trade boils down to clearing some space on the 40-man as they look to protect as much of their vaunted farm system from next month’s Rule 5 Draft as possible. It’s the second such trade they’ve made today, having already sent Colten Brewer to the Red Sox in an earlier swap. Quite likely, there’ll be more moves for the Friars when all is said and done.

It’s also the second such trade that Cleveland has made, as the Indians yesterday acquired righty Chih-Wei Hu from the Rays. Like Hu, Lockett will present Cleveland with some optionable depth for the pitching staff. The 24-year-old Lockett was hammered for 16 runs in 15 big league innings this season, but he showed strong ground-ball tendencies and solid control while pitching in the minors. Through 133 1/3 innings in Triple-A last season, Lockett posted a 4.73 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 47.3 percent ground-ball rate. The ERA, of course, isn’t pretty, but the Indians clearly believe he can improve with some adjustments under their watch.

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