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Where Will Pete Alonso End Up?

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There is no doubt this year’s free agent market has moved slower for position players than it has for pitchers. While 17 pitchers have signed deals worth at least $5MM, only nine position players can say the same – and five of them are catchers. Even with that in mind, the rumor mill has been strangely quiet for one top free agent in particular: All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso.

MLB Trade Rumors ranked Alonso as the seventh-best free agent of the offseason on our annual Top 50 Free Agents list. He was the top first baseman available and, arguably, the second-best pure hitter, behind only Juan Soto. We predicted he’d sign a five-year, $125MM contract. Yet, we haven’t had many opportunities to write about Alonso ever since. Over the past six weeks, the Mets are the only team that has clearly and repeatedly expressed interest in the two-time Home Run Derby champion. Their crosstown rivals are the only other team to be publically linked to Alonso.

Not so long ago, Alonso would have been one of the most sought-after free agents on the market, and his potential contract would have been much easier to predict. After all, he is one of the most powerful (and durable) hitters in the game. He has averaged 43 home runs and 112 RBI per 162 games throughout his career. However, teams look at a lot more than just home runs and RBIs these days. They’re also less likely to pay for past performance. Thus, as Alonso approaches his age-30 season coming off two consecutive down years, it’s not hard to imagine why teams might be hesitant to meet his presumptive nine-figure demands. Earlier this offseason, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco wrote about why Alonso’s contract was one of the hardest to predict for the Top 50 list.

Even so, it’s impossible to deny that Alonso is one of the premier power hitters in the game. Over the past two seasons, down years by his own standards, Alonso ranks fifth among all hitters with 80 home runs. His 121 wRC+ in that span is 21% better than league average. Only a handful of players are capable of swinging the bat faster or hitting the ball harder than the Polar Bear. In other words, he is still going to find a lucrative contract this winter, even if he has to wait a little longer for his market to heat up.

Let’s take a closer look at every team’s chances of signing Alonso.

Likely Suitors (listed alphabetically)

Astros: The Astros freed up some payroll (approximately $8.9MM) by trading star outfielder Kyle Tucker to the Cubs and taking on third baseman Isaac Paredes, among others, in return. Adding Paredes won’t necessarily stop Houston from pursuing Alex Bregman, since Paredes could slide over to first base in deference to Bregman, the superior defender. However, this trade makes it more likely the Astros will look to add a new first baseman instead.

Houston has needed a new first baseman since optioning and subsequently releasing José Abreu earlier this year. The team has already expressed interest in Christian Walker, but Alonso could be another target, especially if Bregman signs elsewhere. The Astros reportedly offered Bregman a six-year, $156MM deal earlier this winter. It’s no surprise Bregman turned that number down, but it would probably be enough to land Alonso. That’s not to say the Astros would be willing to spend the same amount for Alonso as they would for Bregman, but at least it suggests that GM Dana Brown has the necessary funds to get a deal done.

Mets: The Mets have always seemed like strong contenders to retain their homegrown slugger. Although winning the Juan Soto sweepstakes may have reduced the pressure on David Stearns to make any other big additions to the offense, it’s not as if signing Soto precludes the Mets from re-signing Alonso. For one thing, the team’s projected payroll for 2025 is still far below where it was in 2023 and ’24. There might be a payroll number even Steve Cohen won’t spend past, but Stearns has tens of millions to work with before that could possibly become an issue.

Stearns also needs to think about how he’s going to address the holes at first base and DH that free agents Alonso and J.D. Martinez left behind. Mark Vientos is an option to play first, but he held the third base job in 2024. His defense was graded poorly there but the Mets could be better off if Vientos can hold down a more valuable defensive position. Last week, Cohen noted that the Mets are “still engaged” in contract discussions with Alonso.

Nationals: There’s a reason why Tim Dierkes, Anthony Franco, and Darragh McDonald all predicted Alonso would sign with Washington on our Top 50 list. Several promising young Nationals players took big steps forward in 2024. Perhaps that will encourage ownership and the front office to make a big splash this offseason as the Nats look to get back into contention. Keibert Ruiz is currently the only player on the roster with a guaranteed contract, and RosterResource estimates the club’s 2025 payroll is currently $52MM lower than the team’s final payroll in 2024.

Furthermore, first base is wide open in Washington. Joey Gallo and Joey Meneses, who combined to play more than 100 games at first for the Nationals this past season, are out of the organization. Juan Yepez is the most likely internal option to play first base in 2025, but he has not done enough over parts of three big league seasons to warrant an everyday role. President of baseball operations Mike Rizzo has said the club is looking for middle-of-the-order bats and Alonso would certainly fit the bill.

Yankees: Aside from the Mets, the Yankees are the only other team to be credibly linked to Alonso. Early in November, Brian Cashman told Mike Puma of the New York Post that he had spoken to agent Scott Boras about his slugging client. However, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi recently suggested the Yankees would prefer to sign a first baseman on a shorter deal, describing Walker as “more of a priority.”

Nonetheless, it certainly seems like Alonso is still on the table in the Bronx. That should be true even after the Yankees acquired Cody Bellinger from the Cubs on Tuesday. Bellinger can play first base, but he’s more useful to the team in the outfield; he can play center field, allowing Aaron Judge to move back to right. Thus, this team could still use a replacement for Anthony Rizzo at first. Ben Rice, who hit .171/.264/.349 over 50 games in his rookie season, and DJ LeMahieu, who hit .204/.269/.259 in his age-35 campaign, are currently the best in-house options.

With a projected $270MM payroll for 2025 (per RosterResource), the Yanks are still about $33MM under their final estimate from 2024. And while they have made several additions, including Bellinger, Max Fried, and Devin Williams, they still have work to do to replace an incredible talent like Soto. That’s especially true when it comes to the offense.

Plausible/On-Paper Dark Horses

Blue Jays: The Blue Jays have money to spend and a strong desire to add star power. Alonso isn’t on the same level as some of Toronto’s top targets this winter (including Soto, Fried, and Corbin Burnes), but presumably, the Blue Jays will keep trying until they sign somebody if they continue to lose out on star free agents. To that end, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that “Everyone in the [Blue Jays] organization” believes the offense would look a lot more dangerous with another “legitimate slugger.”

The only thing keeping the Blue Jays out of the “likely suitors” category is the fact that they already have a superstar first baseman: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. However, the two could split first and DH this coming year with Alonso taking over at first if Guerrero leaves in free agency following the 2025 season.

Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks were one of the best offensive teams in MLB this past year, but they lost two of their best hitters to free agency in Walker and Joc Pederson. Alonso could help to make up for much of that missing production. However, if the D-backs are indeed planning to keep payroll at a similar level in 2025, they only have about $24MM to spend, according to the estimates from RosterResource. That might not be enough for them to make a serious run at Alonso, especially if they’re planning to address any other areas of need this winter. Then again, GM Mike Hazen could free up some cash if he can find a way to offload Jordan Montgomery’s contract.

Giants: New president of baseball operations Buster Posey is clearly trying to get the Giants back into contention as soon as possible; he already signed Willy Adames and has expressed serious interest in Burnes as well. Pitching will probably remain his priority even if he misses out on Burnes. Still, if Posey is considering Burnes, that means he has the funds to make a run at Alonso. LaMonte Wade Jr. was San Francisco’s primary first baseman in 2024, but the team is reportedly willing to make him available in a trade.

Reds: The Reds are the darkest horse here. They don’t have a clear hole at first base for Alonso, and it’s unclear how much they’re willing to spend this offseason. That said, they could badly use the offense if they want to contend in 2025. New manager Terry Francona could make room for Alonso at first by putting Spencer Steer in left field, Jeimer Candelario at third, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at DH. And while Cincinnati’s front office hasn’t committed to increasing payroll this winter, they haven’t outwardly shut down the possibility either.

Tigers: Despite such a strong finish in 2024, the Tigers haven’t given their fanbase much reason to believe they’ll spend big to improve this winter. However, if they are going to spend – and they really should – Alonso would be a great fit for the lineup. POBO Scott Harris has acknowledged his team could use another right-handed bat and that Spencer Torkelson’s job at first base is far from secure. A reliable righty bat like Alonso would be a big upgrade over Torkelson and a strong addition to a lefty-heavy Detroit lineup. While the Tigers haven’t been big spenders recently, they’ve run higher payrolls in the not-so-distant past.

Unlikely/Not Happening

Angels: The Angels have been active this offseason, but first base doesn’t seem to be at the top of their priority list. Former first-round pick Nolan Schanuel was mediocre in his first full MLB season, but presumably, the Angels haven’t given up on the young first baseman just yet. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler is penciled in at DH, and Anthony Rendon, Mike Trout, and Travis d’Arnaud could see some time there as well.

Athletics: The A’s could theoretically make room for Alonso at first base/DH by having Brent Rooker play more outfield and Tyler Soderstrom catch more often, but it’s far from a perfect fit. While this team might need to keep spending to avoid an MLBPA grievance, there are better uses for that money.

Braves: With Matt Olson at first base and Marcell Ozuna as their designated hitter, the Braves have no need or room for Alonso.

Brewers: The Brewers have been linked to at least one veteran first baseman this offseason; according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, they’re interested in Paul Goldschmidt. However, they’re not usually in play for more expensive free agents like Alonso. Milwaukee hasn’t signed a free agent for more than $35MM or more than three years since Lorenzo Cain in 2018. Even a modest splash on Goldschmidt might require them to offload the Rhys Hoskins contract.

Cardinals: Willson Contreras will be the Cardinals’ full-time first baseman going forward. Even if that weren’t the case, St. Louis is highly unlikely to sign any long-term contracts this winter.

Cubs: Chicago already made a big offensive addition this offseason, trading for Tucker last week. In order to make room for Alonso, the Cubs would most likely have to trade first baseman Michael Busch or presumptive DH Seiya Suzuki. After trading Bellinger to the Yankees, there’s no indication they’re planning to do that.

Dodgers: The Dodgers need Alonso even less than the Braves, thanks to their MVP first baseman Freddie Freeman and MVP DH Shohei Ohtani.

Guardians: On the rare occasions the Guardians have spent significant money in free agency, it has often been for a defensively limited slugger – think Josh Bell, Yonder Alonso, and Edwin Encarnacion. That said, a contract for Pete Alonso would easily be the biggest this front office has ever handed out to a free agent. What’s more, Alonso would only fit in Cleveland if the team were to trade current first baseman Josh Naylor. It would seem counterproductive for the Guardians to deal Naylor and his projected $12MM salary only to turn around and sign Alonso.

Mariners: The Mariners are looking for a righty-batting first baseman, and Alonso would certainly be a nice offensive upgrade for a team that struggled to score runs in 2024. Still, their reported interest in players like Carlos Santana and Justin Turner suggests they aren’t in the market for a bigger free agent addition. The M’s might be planning to increase payroll in 2025, but signing a big name like Alonso still seems unlikely. They haven’t signed a free agent hitter to a contract worth more than $25MM since Nelson Cruz a decade ago.

Marlins: Sure, the Marlins could use Alonso. They could use just about every available free agent. That said, this team is highly unlikely to pursue any free agents who aren’t one-year stopgaps/veterans to flip at the trade deadline.

Orioles: GM Mike Elias has already signed his slugger to replace Anthony Santander, and he went with outfielder Tyler O’Neill. That leaves the O’s with a bit of a logjam at first base/DH, where Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, and Heston Kjerstad could all vie for playing time. Elias might make a trade to clear that up, but even so, Baltimore’s payroll is already significantly higher than it was last year, and another big signing for the offense seems improbable.

Padres: The Padres have room for Alonso, especially if they trade Luis Arraez, and they could use a big bat to replace Jurickson Profar. However, POBO A.J. Preller is operating under tight payroll constraints this winter. Even for Preller, who always seems to have a surprise up his sleeve, Alonso doesn’t seem like a realistic target.

Phillies: The Phillies fall into the Braves/Dodgers camp. Their two best hitters, Bryce Harper (1B) and Kyle Schwarber (DH), already occupy the only positions Alonso could fill.

Pirates: Like the Nationals, the Pirates are an up-and-coming young team with room for a veteran bat at first base. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Pirates have never been big players on the free agent market. There’s a good chance they’re planning to run with recent trade acquisition Spencer Horwitz at first base in 2025.

Rangers: With the addition of Jake Burger, the Rangers don’t really have room for Alonso in the lineup. Given their desire to slip beneath the luxury tax in 2025, they probably don’t have the payroll space either. First baseman Nathaniel Lowe has come up in loose trade rumors this offseason, but it wouldn’t really make sense for Texas to part with the cost-controlled Lowe to sign Alonso. Both players have been similarly productive over the past three years. Moreover, the Rangers are reportedly seeking a left-handed bat. Trading the lefty-batting Lowe to sign the righty-batting Alonso would only set them back in that respect.

Rays: Even if the Rays were finally going to shock the baseball world and sign a top free agent to a nine-figure contract, Alonso probably wouldn’t be their guy. According to wRC+, Tampa Bay’s cost-controlled first baseman Yandy Díaz has outperformed Alonso at the plate in each of the past three seasons.

Red Sox: Boston already has money to spend but a cluttered first base and DH mix. Rafael Devers is a poor defender at third and the club has considered moving him over to first. But since they have Triston Casas there and Masataka Yoshida likely taking up a lot of DH time, it’s led to rumors of Casas being available on the trading block. Signing Alonso would be an expensive way of further crowding that situation.

Rockies: You can’t completely count out the Rockies – this is the team that signed Kris Bryant to a $182MM deal just a few years ago – but there is no reason to believe Colorado is in on any of the top free agents this year. After Charlie Blackmon’s retirement, Bryant is likely to get most of the reps at DH in 2025, while the Rockies surely want to see what they have in Michael Toglia at first base.

Royals: The Royals could use the offense, but they’re highly unlikely to spend what it will take to land Alonso. On top of that, they already have a full-time first baseman in Vinnie Pasquantino. With players like Jonathan India and Salvador Perez already on the roster, Kansas City probably isn’t looking for a full-time DH.

Twins: The Twins could use a first baseman to replace Carlos Santana, but Alonso is almost surely out of their price range. RosterResource already projects their 2025 payroll to be $12MM higher than the final estimate from 2024.

White Sox: Not happening.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

White Sox Sign Bryse Wilson

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The White Sox announced that they have signed right-hander Bryse Wilson to a one-year deal worth $1.05MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported those terms prior to the official announcement and added that Wilson will compete for a rotation spot and can also access bonuses worth $250K in the deal. The Sox had a full 40-man roster but opened a spot by trading catcher Chuckie Robinson to the Angels.

It’s a bit of an early birthday present for Wilson, who turns 27 on Friday. Despite being relatively young, he has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons to this point, debuting with Atlanta as a 20-year-old back in 2018. While many early debutants are on All-Star trajectories and Wilson was considered a top 100 prospect going into the 2019 season, he has spent most of his career thus far as a fairly unremarkable swingman.

Atlanta kept Wilson mostly in a depth role, not letting him get more than 34 innings in any season from 2018 to 2021. He was then flipped to the Pirates as part of the 2021 deadline deal that sent Richard Rodríguez the other way. He spent the next year and a half jockeying for position in the Pittsburgh rotation without fully cementing himself there. He exhausted his final option year in 2022 and was going to be tougher to keep on the roster going forward. He was designated for assignment going into 2023 and was flipped to the Brewers for cash.

Milwaukee used Wilson as a multi-inning reliever in 2023 and then as a swingman in 2024. He could have been retained for 2025 via arbitration, with MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projecting him for a modest salary of $1.5MM, but the Brewers outrighted him off the roster in early November.

Generally speaking, the results have been passable but middling for Wilson. His control has been good but he hasn’t been able to rack up huge numbers of strikeouts or ground balls. Overall, he has a 4.61 ERA in 413 2/3 innings to this point in his career. His 7.4% walk rate is better than average but his 17.1% strikeout rate and 38.8% ground ball rate are both subpar.

He did have a strong 2.58 ERA in 2023 when working solely in relief, but that seems to have been mostly luck. His strikeout, walk and grounder rates were all close to his career norms but he had a tiny .232 batting average on balls in play and high strand rate of 81.2%. His 4.13 FIP and 4.31 SIERA suggested it wasn’t sustainable. In 2024, he regressed back to his typical lane with a 4.04 ERA as the BABIP and strand rate normalized a bit.

Though the numbers have been fairly uninspiring, it’s a sensible fit for all sides. Despite once being a top pitching prospect, Wilson has never been given a full rotation chance. His workload topped out at 115 2/3 innings in 2022, when the Pirates sent him to the minors and to the bullpen multiple times. Going to a club with a wide open rotation like the White Sox is surely an appealing opportunity for him.

For the Sox, this investment is essentially nothing in baseball terms. Wilson’s salary will be barely above next year’s $760K league minimum. They also have almost nothing established in their rotation at this point. They had four pitchers make 21 or more starts for them in 2024 and three of them are gone. Erick Fedde was traded to the Cardinals at the deadline last year. Garrett Crochet was traded to the Red Sox last week. Chris Flexen became a free agent at season’s end. That leaves Jonathan Cannon, who just debuted in 2024, as the only guy who pitched a decent number of innings this year and is still on the roster.

The Sox also have guys like Drew Thorpe, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, Jared Shuster, Nick Nastrini, Jairo Iriarte, Jake Eder, Wikelman Gonzalez and Ky Bush on the roster but no one in that group has even a full year of major league service time or 115 innings pitched in the big leagues.

Though Wilson isn’t much older than the guys in that group, and is actually younger than Martin, he has spent far more time facing big league hitters. He can serve as an experienced veteran, relatively speaking, while he tries to take advantage of a fairly open lane for a rotation job. If several of those young pitchers step forward and earn big league auditions, Wilson can move to a bullpen that’s also fairly lacking in proven options.

Wilson’s service time is between four and five years, so the Sox could actually retain him via arbitration for 2026 if things go well next year. Though if things go especially well, he’s likely to end up being traded at next year’s deadline.

Angels Acquire Chuckie Robinson, Designate Davis Daniel For Assignment

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The White Sox traded catcher Chuckie Robinson to the Angels in exchange for cash, the teams announced Wednesday. The Halos designated righty Davis Daniel for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster. Presumably, the trade of Robinson is the White Sox’ corresponding move to open 40-man roster space for righty Bryse Wilson, who reportedly agreed to a one-year deal there earlier this afternoon. Both teams have full 40-man rosters.

Robinson, 30, has played in two big league seasons, logging 25 games with the ’22 Reds and 26 games with the ChiSox this past season. He’s struggled mightily at the plate, hitting a combined .132/.170/.194 in a small sample of 135 MLB plate appearances. He’s graded out well defensively, though, with good marks for his framing and quality caught-stealing rates. Robinson nabbed nine of the 31 opponents who tried to swipe a base against him in 2024 (29%).

Although Robinson hasn’t hit in his minimal action at the big league level, he’s a .272/.330/.423 hitter in three Triple-A seasons. He also still has a pair of minor league options remaining. He’ll be no higher than third on the organization’s catching depth chart behind Logan O’Hoppe and Travis d’Arnaud, but he’ll give them a more flexible third catcher than they had with the out-of-options Matt Thaiss (who has coincidentally made his way to the White Sox after first being traded from the Angels to the Cubs).

The 27-year-old Daniel will lose his spot on the Angels’ 40-man roster as a result of today’s swap. He’s seen major league time with the Halos in each of the past two seasons but been tagged for an ugly 5.06 ERA in 42 2/3 innings. Daniel has a below-average 19.9% strikeout rate and a solid 8.1% walk rate during that time but has averaged a tepid 92.1 mph on his four-seamer while posting poor whiff rates.

Daniel’s 2024 struggles extended to his Triple-A work (5.43 ERA), but he posted solid numbers there in 2022 (4.49 ERA, 102 1/3 innings) and was sharp in the minors and in the Arizona Fall League as recently as 2023. He also has a minor league option remaining. That could prompt another club to take a look, but if not, Daniels can be outrighted to Triple-A and retained as non-roster depth. The Angels will have a week to trade him or attempt to run him through outright waivers.

Naoyuki Uwasawa Signs With NPB’s SoftBank Hawks

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Right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa’s foray into North American ball will come to a close after one season. The SoftBank Hawks of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week that they’ve signed the 30-year-old righty to a four-year contract (link via The Mainichi).

Uwasawa signed a non-guaranteed deal with the Rays last offseason as he looked to make the jump to Major League Baseball on the heels of a nice nine-year run with NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters. He only spent spring training with Tampa Bay, however, as he triggered an assignment clause in his minor league deal at the end of camp when he was told he wouldn’t make the team. That prompted a trade to the Red Sox, who sent cash back to the Rays and selected Uwasawa to the 40-man roster the following day.

Uwasawa only wound up pitching in two games with Boston. He gave the Red Sox four innings of one-run ball across those two appearances but didn’t get a longer look, due in large part to his struggles down in Triple-A Worcester. The soft-tossing righty was hammered for a 7.63 ERA over 59 1/3 innings, during which time he fanned 16.8% of his opponents against a 12.9% walk rate. For a pitcher who was never a big strikeout arm in Japan but offset the lack of punchouts with sharp command, the walks were as uncharacteristic as they were problematic.

The Red Sox passed Uwasawa through waivers unclaimed in July. He was assigned outright to Triple-A and became a minor league free agent at season’s end. While there may have been some interest from other MLB clubs on a minor league deal, a four-year guarantee to return home to Japan understandably appears to have been too tempting for the right-hander to overlook.

Uwasawa will head back to Japan and look to build on what’s already a fine track record in NPB. He’s pitched 1118 1/3 innings at Japan’s top level and turned in a 3.19 ERA, a 70-62 record, a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 7.5% walk rate (though his strikeout rate has dwindled as his walk rate has improved further in recent NPB seasons).

Yankees Notes: Williams, Loaisiga, Bellinger, Trevino

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It’s been a frenetic week-plus for the Yankees, who over the past ten days have watched Juan Soto sign with the Mets and quickly pivoted to bring lefty Max Fried, closer Devin Williams and first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger into the fold. There’s still more on the Yankees’ short-term to-do list, but Williams also offered a glimpse at a potential conversation that could be had in the coming months. Asked by the YES Network’s Jack Curry about the possibility of signing a long-term contract in the Bronx, Williams replied that it’s “definitely an option.” As it stands, he’s heading into his final season of club control before free agency.

Williams has been one of the game’s most dominant relievers since making his debut. The 2020 National League Rookie of the Year ranks in the top-three of all big league pitchers (min. 200 innings) in both ERA (1.83, second) and strikeout rate (39.4%, third) since coming into the league.

Detractors might point to Williams surrendering what was effectively a season-ending home run to Pete Alonso against the Mets in the NLDS, but it’s rare for the righty to falter in that manner. Since 2020, his first full big league season, no pitcher in baseball has a higher win probability added than Williams. He’s been placed into 138 save/hold situations in his career and only blown the opportunity 10 times. Broadly speaking, Williams has done his best work in high-leverage spots, that lasting memory from the ’24 postseason notwithstanding.

A pitcher with Williams’ stuff and track record should have the opportunity to command one of the largest deals ever for a reliever next winter — provided he maintains that standard in his first season with the Yankees. Williams will pitch nearly all of this season at 30 years of age, turning 31 in September. Age and perhaps some health questions — he missed three months in 2024 with multiple stress fractures in his back — might keep him from quite reaching the same heights that Edwin Diaz (five years, $102MM) and his former teammate Hader (five years, $95MM) reached in free agency. Diaz was 29 in the first year of his contract. Hader was 30.

Still, Williams could reasonably expect to command at least four years, if not five, and he’d be able to push into the rarefied air of $16-20MM average annual values for relievers that have only been attainable for the game’s truly elite stoppers over the past few years. Diaz, Hader, Wade Davis, Liam Hendriks, Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are the only relievers to command multi-year deals with AAVs of $16MM or more.

Whether the two sides will actually get into serious negotiations is an open question, but Williams’ ostensible openness is of some note. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $7.7MM in his final arbitration this coming season, and one would presume he and his reps at Klutch Sports are eyeing an annual salary of $18MM or more for his free agent seasons. It’d be a costly endeavor, but the Yankees have been willing to make huge commitments to the bullpen in the past (e.g. Chapman, Zack Britton).

Elsewhere in the Yankee bullpen is another potentially dominant arm: righty Jonathan Loaisiga. The Yanks more quietly re-signed the Nicaraguan-born righty this month. He’s currently eight months removed from an internal brace procedure to repair a UCL tear in his right elbow. Pitching coach Matt Blake told reporters today, including Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, that the aim is for Loaisiga to be back in the Yankees’ big league bullpen by late April or early May.

The 30-year-old Loaisiga has only reached 50 innings in one big league season but has been excellent when healthy enough to take the ball. Dating back to 2020, the oft-injured righty sports a 2.98 ERA with a below-average 20.3% strikeout rate but a strong 6.5% walk rate and an elite 58% ground-ball rate. Since largely shelving his four-seamer in favor of a sinker, Loaisiga has averaged a blazing 98.1 mph on that sinker, also employing a changeup to help keep lefties off balance. It seems the current expectation is for Loaisiga to open the season on the injured list, but it may not be a particularly lengthy stay, based on the current trajectory of his rehab.

Of course, the headline-grabbing news of the week in the Bronx — beyond finalizing their eight-year deal with Fried and introducing him at a press conference today — was the Yankees’ completion of a trade to bring Bellinger to the Bronx. Rumors of talks between the Yankees and Cubs were plentiful, particularly once Soto signed with the Mets. The two teams finally lined up on a deal yesterday afternoon.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted not long after the trade that the Yankees had informed Bellinger he’ll be utilized in center field. General manager Brian Cashman pushed back on that today following the Fried presser (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com), stating that there’s no firm decision on Bellinger’s defensive home. He could play any of center field, left field or first base for the Yankees next season, and that decision will be contingent on what the Yankees are able to accomplish throughout the remainder of the offseason. FOX Sports’ Deesha Thosar adds that manager Aaron Boone spoke to Bellinger last night, and Bellinger informed his new skipper he’s open to playing wherever needed.

That flexibility, plus the flexibility provided by Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s ability to play multiple spots, leaves Cashman a vast array of possibilities for the remainder of the offseason. The Yankees are reportedly intrigued by several free agent first basemen but could look to the outfield market and also have other areas of depth from which they could trade. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com suggests that catcher Jose Trevino, for instance, could find himself on the trade block in the weeks ahead.

There’s been some speculation that the Yankees could deal from their catching depth this winter, and they’ve already moved one of the five catchers they had on their 40-man roster, sending Carlos Narvaez to the Red Sox for a minor league pitcher and some international bonus pool space. With Austin Wells emerging as the starter behind the plate and backstops J.C. Escarra and Jesus Rodriguez joining Trevino on the 40-man roster, there’s still a good bit of depth. (That doesn’t even include catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, or catching prospect Rafael Flores, who’s not on the 40-man but just had a big season in Double-A.)

To be clear, there’s no indication that Trevino is expressly being shopped. But catching depth is always at a premium around the league, and this offseason’s market is particularly thin. The Yankees are a surefire luxury payor, and while Trevino’s projected $3.4MM salary (again, via Swartz) isn’t excessive, moving him could cut the Yankees’ spending by around $7MM after accounting for the CBT.

The 32-year-old Trevino hit just .215/.288/.354 in 234 plate appearances last year but graded out as a plus-plus defender. The 2022 Platinum Glove winner is a free agent after the season, and with a wealth of young catching options in Wells, Escarra, Rodriguez and Flores, it’d be understandable if the Yanks leveraged that depth by moving Trevino for some bullpen help or depth in another area of need.

KBO’s NC Dinos Sign Logan Allen

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The NC Dinos of the Korea Baseball Organization announced Wednesday that they’ve signed left-hander Logan S. Allen (not to be confused with current Guardians lefty Logan T. Allen) to a one-year contract (hat tip: Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net). Allen is represented by Roc Nation Sports. He’ll be guaranteed $700K between his salary and signing bonus, and he can earn another $300K worth of incentives.

It’ll be the first stint overseas for the 27-year-old Allen — a former top prospect who’s now bounced to seven different MLB organizations in his career, appearing in the majors with four of them. Allen spent the 2024 season with the Diamondbacks, pitching 28 innings of 5.46 ERA ball in the majors and adding another 96 1/3 frames at the Triple-A level.

Allen breezed through the lower minors and had a terrific season between Double-A and Triple-A as a 21-year-old back in 2018, but his results both in the majors and in Triple-A have generally been subpar since that time. He altered his repertoire this past season, however, debuting a new splitter that seems to have caught the Dinos’ attention. The pitch generated strong results and drew positive grades from both Statcast and Sports Info Solutions. The Dinos mentioned it in their press release, wherein GM Seon-nam Lim noted that Allen is expected to join their rotation.

Allen heads over the the KBO for his age-28 season, giving him plenty of time to potentially parlay a strong showing in Asia into a big league return. He’d hardly be the first player to do so. Because Allen debuted in the majors less than a month after his 22nd birthday, he’s perhaps younger than many fans might expect of a journeyman who’s been with seven MLB organizations over a nearly decade-long pro career. If he can make further gains with that new split-changeup, it’s feasible that he could garner a look from big league clubs in future offseasons.

MLBTR Podcast: Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Opener: Fried, Yankees, Arbitration

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As the offseason continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world today:

1. Fried presser today:

The Yankees made their latest major signing official yesterday when they announced the addition of southpaw Max Fried on an eight-year deal. The club will hold an introductory press conference for Fried at noon ET today. Fried and GM Brian Cashman both figure to be in attendance to take questions from the media. Fried, 30, has been among the best pitchers in the sport by ERA since his breakout season in 2020 with a 2.81 figure that trails only Brandon Woodruff and Clayton Kershaw among starters in that time. Fried figures to join longtime ace Gerrit Cole at the front of the Yankees’ rotation as the club attempts to retool its AL pennant-winning roster in the aftermath of Juan Soto heading to Queens.

2. What’s next for the Yankees?

Speaking of the Yankees’ retooling process, they took another step in that direction yesterday when they traded for Cody Bellinger in a salary dump deal with the Cubs that cost them nothing other than Triple-A swingman Cody Poteet. Bellinger’s coming off a relative down season (109 wRC+) in 2024 but was top-ten in NL MVP voting the year prior after a resurgent campaign. Currently, Bellinger appears to be ticketed for regular playing time in center field with the Yankees, but it’s possible that could change depending on the readiness of top prospect Jasson Dominguez (who played left field in a 2024 cup of coffee but has spent the bulk of his career in center) and the club’s free agent pursuits. Signing a corner outfield bat like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernandez could push Bellinger to first base, while adding a first baseman like Josh Naylor, Christian Walker, or Paul Goldschmidt would leave Bellinger as a regular on the outfield grass.

3. Arbitration deals:

Yesterday, the Royals avoided arbitration with right-hander Kyle Wright by agreeing to a $1.8MM salary for the 2025 season. Players and teams came to a number of similar deals in advance of the non-tender deadline last month, but teams will need to reach agreements with (or face arbitration hearings against) the rest of their eligible players before the arbitration filing deadline on January 9. While players and teams can agree to deals after that date to avoid arbitration, MLB clubs have increasingly adopted a “file and trial” approach to arbitration where they stop negotiations on one-year arbitration contracts once the deadline to file has passed. With just three weeks until said deadline, there ought to be several other players agreeing to salaries for the upcoming season in the days and weeks ahead (with a particular rush on that Jan. 9 filing day itself). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected arbitration salaries for all 272 arbitration-eligible players back in October, although many of those names have been non-tendered or otherwise removed from the 40-man roster since that time.

MLB Mailbag: Burnes, Soto, Brewers, Dodgers, A’s, Astros

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Today's mailbag gets into where Corbin Burnes might go, why we write about players' salaries, whether Juan Soto will opt out, how the Brewers might sort out their outfield, chances of the Dodgers signing various free agents, and what's next for the A's.

Please note that this mailbag was initially published shortly before news of the Cody Bellinger trade broke.  I'm sure we'll get into that trade in the next mailbag, but since some of the Bellinger material in the mailbag was usurped by the trade, I've added several bonus Astros questions and answers to the end.

Joel asks:

Why is there not even a shred of a suggestion anywhere that the Mets have interest in Corbin Burnes? If they were willing to pay dinosaurs like Scherzer and Verlander, why not pay Burnes? Otherwise, they'll lose a lot of games 7-5.

Tony asks:

Corbin Burnes will sign with ?

Bud asks:

As a Giant fan it’s a little concerning hearing the rumors of Corbin Burns nearing a deal with the team and then a week or more of quiet. I was hoping for more moves…

Neil asks:

Will Giants sign Burnes or will it be another pitcher?

David Stearns was the GM of the Brewers when the team drafted Burnes in the fourth round out of Saint Mary's College of California in 2016.  With the Mets needing three starters this winter, it was natural to expect Stearns to be interested.  While it's true Stearns topped out at $15.5MM for a free agent starter with the Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin in 2016), it's also true that the Mets have way more money than the Brewers.

Even a comparison to Stearns' 2023-24 offseason would not be fair, because that was, as my colleague Darragh McDonald wrote, "a sort of bridge year."  Hence the relatively affordable additions of Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, and Adrian Houser.

To date, the Mets have made the ownership-driven decision to sign Juan Soto to a record-shattering contract, while Stearns has added Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas on two-year deals (if Holmes uses his opt-out) to help fill out the rotation.  Kodai Senga barely pitched this year, and David Peterson's 21 starts matched a career high.  Paul Blackburn is a back of the rotation type who has battled injuries, including October back surgery.  The rotation lacks reliability, which would likely be solved by Burnes.

Stearns seems more interested in the trade market of late, showing interest in Garrett Crochet and Luis Castillo this month.  Speculatively, they could go after Dylan Cease as well.  On December 7th, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic wrote that the Mets had interest in Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, Walker Buehler, Jack Flaherty, and Nick Pivetta.  Around that time, Tim Healey of Newsday wrote that the Mets were not in on Max Fried and are not expected to land Burnes.  It would seem that Stearns simply does not like the return on investment of huge pitching contracts (at least for the players available this winter) and does not want to spend $250MM+ on Burnes.

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Yankees Acquire Cody Bellinger

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The long-awaited Cody Bellinger trade has arrived. The Yankees and Cubs announced a trade sending Bellinger and cash considerations to the Bronx in exchange for right-hander Cody Poteet. Chicago is reportedly paying down $5MM of the $52.5MM remaining on Bellinger’s contract. They’ll pay $2.5MM of next season’s $27.5MM salary and send another $2.5MM in 2026 — either covering a portion of his $25MM salary for that season or paying half of the $5MM buyout if he opts out of his contract next winter. New York reportedly plans to use Bellinger as a center fielder.

Bellinger heading to the Bronx is a logical fit and it has been in plenty of rumors recently. At the start of the offseason, the Yankees lost Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo and Anthony Rizzo to free agency, opening up two holes in their outfield and one at first base. Since Bellinger has played both the outfield and at first, the 29-year-old was seen as a possible fit for their 2025 plans in various ways. The Yanks pursued Soto for a long time but he eventually landed with the Mets, pushing the Yankees to several backup plans. They have since signed left-hander Max Fried and acquired right-hander Devin Williams to upgrade their rotation and bullpen.

For the Cubs, Bellinger has seemed expendable for a few reasons. On the one hand, Pete Crow-Armstrong emerged as a viable glove-first center fielder in 2024, which was Bellinger’s primary spot the year before. Michael Busch also took over the first base spot. With Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki in the outfield corners, Bellinger was a bit squeezed. The Cubs only compounded the problem when they acquired Kyle Tucker from the Astros.

However, beyond the roster crunch, the Cubs were also likely motivated to move Bellinger due to his decline in performance. After some rough years with the Dodgers while recovering from shoulder surgery, the Cubs took a bounceback flier on Bellinger in 2023. After being non-tendered by the Dodgers, the Cubs gave Bellinger a $17.5MM guarantee on a one-year pact, hoping he could get over his injury woes and return to being the player that won Most Valuable Player in 2019.

He didn’t get all the way back to that level but was still great value for that investment. He stole 20 bases and hit 26 home runs. He only struck out 15.6% of the time. The reviews of his center field defense were mixed but were mostly close to league average. He also moved to first base on occasion. He slashed .307/.356/.525 for a 136 wRC+ and produced 4.4 wins above replacement, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

Perhaps the Cubs would have been happy to walk away at that point. They gave Bellinger a qualifying offer and didn’t seem to have a very high motivation to re-sign him, but nor did any other clubs, as Bellinger remained unsigned through late February. Eventually, he and the Cubs agreed to a three-year, $80MM deal with opt-outs after each season.

On that kind of deal, the best case scenario for the club is that the player performs well and then opts out. If the player doesn’t opt out, it means he doesn’t like his prospects in free agency, which likely means he got hurt or underperformed.

Bellinger’s production did indeed slip relative to 2023, though it wasn’t disastrous. He stole nine bases and hit 19 home runs. His strikeout rate held steady at 15.6%. He slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 109. His center field defense was still graded as around league average but he spent less time there due to the aforementioned emergence of Crow-Armstrong. He produced 2.2 fWAR, half of the year before.

Going into the offseason, it was a borderline call as to whether Bellinger would opt out or not. He could have taken the $2.5MM buyout and taken his chances, leaving a $52.5MM guarantee on the table. While he may have been able to beat the $50MM difference this winter, he decided to stay, perhaps due to the way the current contract is allocated. He will make $27.5MM in 2025 with a $5MM buyout on his $25MM for 2026. There’s a best-case scenario for him personally where he plays better in 2025 and then takes the second opt-out, returning to the open market with greater earning power, pocketing $32.5MM in the process. He decided that was more attractive than opting out this year.

It seems fair to conclude that the Cubs would have rather he opted out. Trade rumors surrounding Bellinger have been flying all offseason and now the Cubs have moved on from him, mostly for salary relief. By taking on the majority of that salary, the Yankees haven’t had to give up much, though there is financial risk and the deal has more downside than upside.

If Bellinger plays especially well in 2025, he will trigger that opt-out. That will leave the Yankees having paid him $27.5MM for one year, which is the best-case scenario for them at this point. Though if he doesn’t play well or finishes the upcoming season with a notable injury, he will stay on their books for 2026, with the Yanks on the hook for $22.5MM of his $25MM salary.

The Yankees are also repeat luxury tax payors, which will add to what they are paying Bellinger. If they end up above the highest threshold as they did in 2024, then they are slated for a 110% tax on spending over the top line, so any new additions to the roster effectively cost double. That compounds the risk they are taking with Bellinger but the same would be true if they had instead opted to sign a free agent or acquire another player making a notable salary.

Bellinger has been a very streaky player in his career, so it’s anyone’s guess which of those outcomes is more likely in the upcoming year. As mentioned, he’s shown MVP upside but followed that up with a stretch so bad that he was non-tendered. He roared back in 2023 but dipped a bit in 2024.

All that being said, it’s understandable why the Yankees would be interested in taking this risk. The free agent market features outfielders like Teoscar Hernández and Anthony Santander, but they will likely end up with larger guarantees than Bellinger. Santander is reportedly looking for a five-year deal and Hernández three, each likely hoping for an average annual value of $20MM or more.

They are also both bat-first guys with poor defense, whereas Bellinger is capable of being a strong defender in an outfield corner or perhaps passable in center. The Yanks played Aaron Judge in center a lot in 2024 while using Verdugo and Soto in the corners, though it seems that Judge is now slated to return to right field. That’s a sensible pivot since Judge’s marks were poor this year and he’s about to turn 33, meaning the long-term toll on his body would have to be considered. The Yankees may have continued to have Judge up the middle if they had re-signed Soto but after he signed with the Mets, it was reported the the club was planning to move Judge back to right and have Jasson Domínguez get a crack at the center field job.

Now that they have landed Bellinger, it seems he is Plan A for center. As mentioned, the advanced metrics have been a bit split on his viability there. In over 4,000 innings, he has been credited with 10 Defensive Runs Saved. However, most of that positive value came earlier in his career with the Dodgers. He’s been average or below for four straight years now. Outs Above Average, however, is far more bullish. That metric has given Bellinger a grade of +19 in his career, having him at par or better in every season of his career.

Perhaps there’s a scenario where Domínguez seems like the better option and pushes Bellinger to a corner, but there’s no guarantee he will be a capable big leaguer in 2025 at all. He tore through the minors and then debuted with a splash in 2023, but he then required Tommy John surgery late that year, which put him on the shelf for a decent chunk of 2024. He then missed more time this year due to an oblique strain and has only appeared in 26 big league games at this point. He will likely still get a shot at taking the left field job next to Bellinger and Judge but isn’t guaranteed anything, with guys like Everson Pereira and Spencer Jones around to give him some competition.

The Yanks didn’t have many other options if they wanted to find a solution for center field. The free agent market is arguably led by glove-first Harrison Bader, who they weren’t likely to sign anyway after a bad experience trading for him in 2022. The trade market has other options such as Luis Robert Jr., though all reports have indicated the White Sox are setting a high asking price even though Robert is coming off yet another injury-marred season.

It’s also possible that they change their plans, depending on how the rest of the offseason plays out. They reportedly have interest in various first base options, such as trade candidates Josh Naylor or Nathaniel Lowe, as well as free agents Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Carlos Santana and Paul Goldschmidt. But if they can’t complete a deal they like there, they could always pivot back to Hernández and/or Santander or some other outfielder, sending Bellinger to first base in that scenario.

For the Cubs, they are likely happy to get the majority of Bellinger’s salary off their books but also take a flier on Poteet. The 30-year-old has 83 innings of major league experience at this point between the Marlins and Yankees, missing the 2023 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. He returned to the mound in 2024 but also missed about three months due to a right triceps strain.

He tossed 24 1/3 innings in the majors this year over four starts and one relief appearance. He allowed 2.22 earned runs per nine with a 16.7% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate. He also made ten Triple-A starts with a 3.92 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 40.7% ground ball rate.

The Cubs already have a solid rotation mix consisting of Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Matthew Boyd and Javier Assad. They’ve been connected to Jesús Luzardo in recent rumors and also have Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown and Cade Horton in the mix. Poteet still has options and can slot in as Triple-A depth for the Cubs.

Financially, RosterResource now has the Cubs with a competitive balance tax calculation of $192MM, almost $50MM shy of the $241MM base threshold. They went a bit over the line in 2024 but it’s unclear if they are willing to do so again in 2025. It’s also unclear if they have any other big moves planned now that they have added Tucker and Boyd. The bullpen could certainly use some upgrades but the club has generally shied away from big splashes there.

RR puts the Yankees at a $270MM payroll and a luxury tax calculation of $292MM. They had a payroll around $300MM last year and therefore still have a bit of wiggle room for other moves if they are willing to get to a similar level next year. The top tier of the tax starts at $301MM next year, so they are not far from getting up to that 110% tax rate, but are already at a 95% rate at their current level.

They are still on the lookout for help at the infield corners, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. likely slated to be moved from third to second base, though adding a second baseman and keeping Chisholm at third is also a possibility. Perhaps a trade of Marcus Stroman could help in multiple ways, as he is making a notable salary and arguably surplus to requirements in the rotation.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that Bellinger and cash were going to the Yankees for Poteet. Jack Curry of YES Network first had the $5MM total. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reported that it was split into $2.5MM per year while Passan added that the second half would be coming regardless of the opt-out decision. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that Bellinger has been told he’ll be playing center field for the Yanks.

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