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Trade Market For Starting Pitchers

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With one week to go until the non-waiver trade deadline, we have seen the market move already. Jose Quintana is the best starter to change hands, and just yesterday Jaime Garcia and Trevor Cahill found new homes.

More will likely join them, as the list of teams on the lookout for rotation help is sizable. The Astros, Mariners, Yankees, Dodgers, Rockies, and Brewers are among the teams still weighing rotation additions. It may be that the Royals, Twins, and Cubs could look for more arms. And it’s conceivable that others could yet emerge. The Nationals, for instance, have already lost Joe Ross and saw Stephen Strasburg exit his most recent start with some forearm stiffness. Here’s a look at the names that could be available…

Rentals

Yu Darvish, Rangers | Salary: $11MM ($4.2MM remaining)

It’s not yet clear whether the Rangers will truly make Darvish available — especially after a weekend sweep of the Rays. The parity in the American League is staggering, as two teams are tied for the second Wild Card spot with another five clubs (including the Rangers) within 3.5 games of that second Wild Card position. It’d probably take a notable collapse for the Rangers to bite the bullet and move Darvish, and the asking price would be exorbitant. Darvish, though, would be far and away the most impactful arm on the rental market, and contenders would line up to insert him into a playoff rotation.

Andrew Cashner, Rangers | $10MM ($3.8MM remaining)

If the Rangers market Darvish, they’ll obviously be open to doing so with Cashner as well. The 30-year-old is sporting a nice-looking 3.64 ERA, but the numbers under the hood are ugly. Cashner has seen his K/9 plummet to 4.5, and he’s averaging 3.9 walks per nine innings as well. His velocity is down a bit, and he’s also working with a career-worst 6.2 percent swinging-strike rate. Add in the durability concerns, and Cashner wouldn’t figure to have a significant asking price. (Tyson Ross could in theory also be an option, but he is on the DL and has been ineffective when available.)

R.A. Dickey, Braves | $8MM ($3.1MM remaining)

Signed to eat innings, Dickey has done just that in Atlanta, racking up 117 1/3 frames with a 4.14 ERA. Dickey’s K/BB numbers aren’t anything to write home about, and while he’s a perfectly durable back-of-the-rotation option, he’s probably not that high on most teams’ wishlists given the limited upside he brings to the table at age 42.

Lance Lynn, Cardinals | $7.5MM ($2.9MM remaining)

Like Cashner, Lynn carries a strong ERA (3.30) and alarming peripherals. Lynn does average 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings against a passable 3.1 walks per nine, but he’s extremely homer-prone and is thriving largely due to a .225 BABIP (second-lowest in MLB) and an 82.4 percent strand rate (seventh-highest). He also missed the 2016 season due to Tommy John surgery, so some clubs might be wary about his innings total.

Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies | $17.2MM ($6.6MM remaining)

Hellickson’s strikeout rate vanished into thin air in his second season with the Phillies, but interested teams may at least be intrigued by the fact that he’s punched out 31 hitters against just seven walks in his past 35 1/3 innings (7.9 K/9). Still, the Phillies couldn’t drum up much of a market for him in 2016 when he was pitching better and making only about 40 percent of his current salary. It doesn’t seem likely that he’ll command much of a return, though the Phillies could offer to pay the bulk of his salary to try to enhance interest.

Jhoulys Chacin & Clayton Richard, Padres | $1.75MM each ($669K remaining)

The Padres signed each of this duo (as well as Cahill) to identical base salaries this offseason, and the results have been surprisingly solid. Chacin has been great over his past nine starts, though no one is going to expect him to continue the 2.72 ERA he’s logged in that span. Still, he’s averaged 7.5 K/9 in that time with passable control (3.2 BB/9) and a 52.3 percent ground-ball rate.  Richard was solid through mid-June but has been clobbered for 27 runs on 48 hits in his past 25 innings.

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Latest On Yu Darvish

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There’s still some apparent tension in the Rangers’ stance regarding ace Yu Darvish. The veteran righty is now available for the taking, per ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick, but only in the “right deal.”

The situation was framed somewhat differently just last night by MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, though perhaps it’s just another way of stating the same takeaway. As he has it, the Rangers are leaning against a trade unless the club falls apart over the final week or is “overwhelmed by an offer.”

It seems, then, that Texas is informing rivals not only that Darvish can be had, but also that he won’t be moved unless the Rangers receive an offer that meets their surely lofty standards. That sets the stage for an interesting, multi-party game of chicken between the Rangers and potential suitors. But it also perhaps reflects mostly a continuation of a typical deadline standoff, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests on Twitter.

The organization is surely justified in holding out for a big return on Darvish, rather than simply auctioning his services to the highest bidder. After all, the team would not only be waving the white flag on contending in the current season — despite a still-wide-open AL Wild Card race — but would be sacrificing the ability to recoup draft compensation by extending Darvish a qualifying offer. (Plus, perhaps there could be at least some impossible-to-quantify impact on any efforts to re-sign the star hurler.)

Deadline Chatter: Darvish, Gray, Neshek, Cabrera, Marlins

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As things stand right now, the Rangers are leaning against dealing star righty Yu Darvish, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. That could still change with an “overwhelming” offer or a total collapse in the standings, he notes. There’s still no clarity in the American League Wild Card picture, and the Rangers remain as plausible a contender as any, so perhaps the smoke surrounding Darvish really has come from an extinguished flame. That storyline promises to be among the most notable of the coming week, not least of which because of interest from the suddenly Clayton Kershaw-less Dodgers. Los Angeles seems to be taking something of a Darvish-or-bust stance with regard to starters, Joel Sherman of the New York Post suggests in a tweet.

More deadline chatter:

  • The Brewers are “fading” in the race to acquire Athletics righty Sonny Gray, according to Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not clear whether that’s owing to a change in Milwaukee’s position or the rise of an alternative suitor, but it’s obviously notable. The Brewers seem well-positioned to add a pitcher such as Gray, though perhaps other organizations have greater motivation to boost their near-term product. One such team is the Yankees, who believe they are better than their record, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. That view has helped spur the team’s deadline activity, including its effort to get a starter — with Gray perhaps representing the best fit.
  • We continue to hear of widespread interest in Phillies reliever Pat Neshek, though it remains unclear just how much he’ll draw in return. A few teams still looking hard at him are the Nationals, Dodgers, and Red Sox, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Those three clubs are among several that seem to be looking over a variety of relief pitchers, of course.
  • The Mets believe internally that they will end up trading infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes in an update on the team’s deadline situation. That seemingly reflects not only the fairly robust demand, but also the team’s assessment of its interest (or lack thereof) in bringing Cabrera back for 2018 through a club option. Aside from Cabrera and top trade piece Addison Reed, the Mets are said to be receiving middling interest in their pending free agents — despite the fact that all are playing rather well. Puma notes that lofty salaries would make all of the team’s other major trade candidates (Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, and Neil Walker) plausible August trade pieces.
  • In Marlins injury news, the club announced that first baseman Justin Bour left today’s game with an oblique strain, as Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel reports. While nothing is official as of yet, skipper Don Mattingly said it’s expected that Bour will require a DL stint. Meanwhile, righty Edinson Volquez did not have an encouraging throwing session today, Tim Healey of the Sun Sentinel tweets. As the veteran heads for a second opinion on his ailing knee, it seems that he’ll remain out a while longer. These two players, then, seem quite unlikely to factor into deadline talks — though that was unlikely in any event.
  • The likeliest scenario at this point is that the Tigers will try to move second baseman Ian Kinsler over the offseason –after exercising his option for 2018 — Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press tweets. Likewise, the Yankees will probably look to see if there’s a taker for outfielder Jacoby Ellsburgy this winter, Feinsand tweets. That’s not terribly surprising in either case, though surely there’d seem to be greater odds that Kinsler could end up on the move — and indeed he may yet.

Angels Place Alex Meyer On 10-Day DL

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The Angels have placed righty Alex Meyer on the 10-day DL, per a club announcement. He’s said to be dealing with inflammation in his pitching shoulder.

Thus far in 2017, the Halos have been anything but blessed when it comes to pitching health. Meyer, 27, joins a long list of starters on the DL. Hopefully he will be able to return somewhat more rapidly than have many of the others, though it’s of greater concern given that Meyer has experienced issues with this particular joint in the past.

It’s particularly tough news given that Meyer has finally shown some signs of turning a corner since arriving last year via trade. In his 13 starts thus far in 2017, he’s carrying a 3.74 ERA with 10.0 K/9 against 5.6 BB/9 to go with a 46.5% groundball rate.

Clearly, the volume of free passes is cause for concern. But it’s clearly the best extended stretch of the towering hurler’s career; he has not only maintained an average heater of over 96 mph but is generating a 10.7% swinging-strike rate on the year. And Meyer’s most recent start, in which he allowed just one hit in seven scoreless innings against the Nationals, was perhaps the best of his MLB career.

It’s not clear at this point what kind of path Meyer faces to return to the majors. And it’s not altogether clear whether the injury will alter the team’s deadline plans. On the one hand, it highlights yet more the team’s glaring need in the rotation; on the other, the loss of one of the team’s better remaining rotation options perhaps speaks to the inadvisability of win-now moves with the club still stuck hovering around .500.

White Sox Sign Danny Farquhar

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The White Sox have signed veteran righty Danny Farquhar, Scott Merkin of MLB.com tweets. Triple-A Charlotte has confirmed the move, while also announcing the releases of catcher Carson Blair and righty Bobby Parnell.

Chicago has been looking to add veteran arms to the ranks at Charlotte as it continues to oversee a rummage sale with its MLB roster. Several relievers have already been dealt and a few more appear to be on the block as well.

The 30-year-old Farquhar continues to generate tons of swings and misses (better than 14% this year), but has had trouble translating that into consistent results. He was able to punch out only 8.5 batters per nine via strikeout despite the outstanding whiff rate, and also permitted a 5.7 BB/9 walk rate in his 35 innings this year with the Rays.

Those struggles led to the loss of Farquhar’s MLB roster spot and, not long after, his release. But he obviously still has some intriguing skills and has at times been quite effective over long stretches. Farquhar will hope for another shot at the majors down the stretch, with designs on setting himself up for a solid opportunity entering the 2018 season.

As for the other two players, the 27-year-old Blair has seen eleven games of MLB action, but has mostly played in the upper minors in recent years. He’s slashing .211/.297/.390 on the season at Triple-A. Parnell, the former Mets’ closer, has struggled to a 7.34 ERA in his 34 1/3 innings at the highest level of the minors this year (split between the Royals and White Sox organizations).

Long List Of Teams Interested In AJ Ramos

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MONDAY: In addition to the Rockies and Cubs, the Nationals are said to be “expressing strong interest” in Ramos, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Ramos has previously been tied to the Nats, though those talks reportedly took place before the team’s recent addition of a pair of late-inning relievers. Of course, Washington is still said to be looking at yet more relief targets.

SATURDAY: The Diamondbacks, Rockies, Rays, Red Sox, Cubs, Brewers and others all have interest in Marlins closer AJ Ramos, FanRag’s Jon Heyman tweets. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick and others tweeted earlier this week that the Marlins were taking calls on Ramos.

The Marlins, of course, recently traded reliever David Phelps to Seattle for a package including outfield prospect Brayan Hernandez, and Ramos could potentially be an even more desirable trade target. The 30-year-old has a 4.08 ERA and 4.8 BB/9 this season, but with a strong 11.5 K/9. He also has 89 career saves and a long history of success in the ninth inning, making him a strong late-inning option for a contender. (Of course, many clubs on Heyman’s list of interested teams, including the Rockies, Red Sox, Cubs and Brewers, appear set at closer, but that wouldn’t preclude them from having interest in another good late-inning arm.) Ramos can be controlled through 2018 via the arbitration process.

With Phelps gone, the Marlins are expected to lean harder on Junichi Tazawa, as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro recently explained. Tazawa has pitched nine scoreless innings this month. The team also has Kyle Barraclough, Nick Wittgren and Dustin McGowan to pitch in the late innings. It’s not yet clear, however, who would take over the closer role should Ramos depart.

Twins Return Rule 5 Pick Justin Haley To Red Sox

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In need of a 40-man spot after today’s trade, the Twins have returned Rule 5 pick Justin Haley to the Red Sox, per MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger (via Twitter). Haley evidently cleared waivers; Boston has accepted him back and assigned him to Triple-A, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter).

Haley, 26, had been nearing a return from a DL stint owing to shoulder problems. The righty did appear in ten MLB contests earlier this season, however, allowing a dozen earned runs on 22 hits over 18 innings while striking out 14 and issuing six walks.

The results have been somewhat more promising of late in the upper minors. Over his 102 2/3 Triple-A frames over the past two years, Haley owns a 3.59 ERA with 6.8 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9.

Erick Aybar Diagnosed With Fractured Foot

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Padres shortstop Erick Aybar has been diagnosed with a fractured foot, according to Nathan Ruiz of MLB.com (via Twitter). He is said to be looking at an extended absence, with the best-case scenario being a return in the middle of September.

Aybar, 33, was hitting just .227/.295/.346 on the year over 291 plate appearances. He’s still a palatable defender at short, though metrics see him as average or slightly below at the position. All told, Aybar is now well removed from his days as a quality regular.

The news won’t impact the organization’s broader fortunes, as Aybar is a rental player and the club obviously isn’t going to make the postseason this year. There’s no chance that the Pads will be giving up significant value just to plug the hole, then, though a veteran fill-in could be considered and the team will no doubt continue looking for a long-term solution.

In the meantime, though, the Pads will get a longer look at a player who could be an important part of the team’s future. Rule 5 pick Allen Cordoba has struggled to a .225/.283/.312 batting line on the season after a torrid start, but he’ll likely see yet more time down the stretch unless there’s a new addition. San Diego can also utilize the just-recalled Dusty Coleman at short.

Royals Acquire Cahill, Maurer, Buchter From Padres For Strahm, Wood, Ruiz

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6:16pm: Kansas City will pay for Wood both this year and next, per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (via Twitter). The buyout will be split in half if it is paid, MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell adds on Twitter.

5:24pm: The Royals have announced an interesting trade with the Padres involving a whole host of pitchers, as Robert Murray of Fan Rag has first reported on Twitter. Kansas City will add starter Trevor Cahill, righty reliever Brandon Maurer, and southpaw Ryan Buchter. In exchange, the Pads will pick up southpaws Matt Strahm and Travis Wood along with infield prospect Esteury Ruiz.

For Kansas City, the move represents an effort to bolster the team’s pitching staff down the stretch — and confirms that the club isn’t planning on dealing away its pending free agents before the deadline. The Royals designated Al Alburquerque and Luke Farrell to open roster space, while lefty Brian Flynn was recalled to the active roster while the team awaits its new hurlers.

Jul 4, 2017; Cleveland, OH, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Trevor Cahill (38) delivers in the first inning against the Cleveland Indians at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

The rotation was clearly in need of improvement, and Cahill has tantalized this year with a career-high 12.8% swinging-strike rate while working exclusively from the rotation. While he has thrown just 61 innings over 11 starts, owing to a DL stint for a shoulder injury, Cahill owns a 3.69 ERA with 10.6 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9 along with an excellent 56.8% groundball rate.

Whether Cahill can maintain that kind of production down the stretch is anyone’s guess. But with relatively few appealing rental starters available, there weren’t many other places to turn. And Cahill is making just $1.75MM on the year, so he’s as affordable as rental players come.

Both of the Royals’ new bullpen pieces are also affordable — and, in their cases, controllable. Maurer, 27, is earning $1.9MM this year with two more arb campaigns yet to go. While the results haven’t been there for him in some time, he is carrying impressive peripherals this year (8.7 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9) to go with his upper-nineties fastball.

Buchter is arguably the most valuable asset going to K.C. He is already thirty years old, but can be controlled all the way through 2021. The southpaw carries a 2.93 ERA since landing in San Diego, with 11.1 K/9 on the basis of a swinging-strike rate that’s up to 11.1% this year. While he issues too many walks (4.4 BB/9 overall) and has been a bit homer-prone (1.64 per nine) this year, Buchter looks to be a quality pen piece at a bargain price.

On the other side of the ledger, the Friars have evidently gotten an early start on their winter shopping by adding Wood. Like Cahill (along with current Padre southpaw Clayton Richard), Wood is a recent Cubs hurler who can work out of the rotation or the pen. The results haven’t been there this year — he carries a 6.91 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 — but there’s some obvious bounceback potential. While Wood’s contract ($4MM this year, $6.5MM next, and a $1MM buyout on a $8MM mutual option for the 2019 season) was under water, Kansas City will be picking up the tab through the end of 2018.

Clearly, then, the focus for San Diego was on the other two players added today. Strahm is out for the year after surgery for a torn patellar tendon and didn’t produce great results this year when healthy, but he was generally viewed as the Royals’ top prospect entering the season. The Padres have shown a willingness to take on injury risks in the past, and probably aren’t overly concerned with Strahm’s knee injury. He could open the 2018 season in the rotation or be utilized as a replacement for Buchter in the bullpen.

And then there’s the true wild card, the 18-year-old Ruiz, whose inclusion perhaps best explains this swap from the Padres’ perspective. As Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote earlier this year (subscription required and recommended), the middle infield has shown flashes of real potential of late, blossoming after his unheralded international signing. He has mashed in the Arizona League in 2017, slashing .419/.440/.779 (albeit with twenty strikeouts and just four walks) over 91 plate appearances.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins Acquire Jaime Garcia, Anthony Recker

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The Twins have acquired lefty Jaime Garcia and catcher Anthony Recker from the Braves, per a club announcement.  In return, Atlanta acquires young righty Huascar Ynoa.

As part of the swap, the Braves will send $100K to cover a piece of Recker’s remaining salary, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Minnesota is absorbing all of Garcia’s remaining salary, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman (via Twitter); that represents just over $4.5MM of the original $12MM salary.

Apr 17, 2017; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Jaime Garcia (54) throws a pitch against the San Diego Padres in the first inning at SunTrust Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

While these two clubs had seemingly been nearing a deal involving Garcia just days ago, those talks broke down — at least temporarily — when an issue arose in the medicals of Twins righty Nick Burdi. When that fell through, the southpaw ended up making another start for the Braves. It was a good one, which helped buttress the club’s position, though obviously Atlanta did not have an enormous amount of leverage here.

Garcia is a useful pitcher, to be sure, but no team was going to give big value to get him. That was especially true of a Minnesota organization that is looking to stay in the postseason hunt, but has little interest in mortgaging the future to do so. The Twins have said all along their preference was to add a controllable starter, but perhaps that was going to cost too much in prospect capital. Instead, the team will take on a bit of payroll and give up a far-away prospect to help boost its rotation in the near-term.

While he’s no ace, Garcia will represent a pretty significant improvement for this particular staff. Indeed, he’ll probably slot in as the club’s third-best starter behind Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios. Assuming that Adalberto Mejia will hold a rotation spot and Bartolo Colon will receive at least a few more outings, it seems Kyle Gibson is most likely to lose his rotation spot as a result  of the move.

Since arriving over the winter from the Cardinals in a deal that sent young hurlers John Gant, Chris Ellis, and Luke Dykstra to St. Louis, Garcia has largely been a steady presence. He has continued to stay healthy after years of shoulder woes, throwing 113 innings over 18 starts, and has turned in a solid 4.30 ERA. Garcia is carrying only 6.8 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9, but does have an excellent 55.4% groundball rate.

Minnesota also adds Recker, who provides some depth behind the dish. He has received scant MLB action thus far in 2017, but hit quite well last year for Atlanta. Over 156 Triple-A plate appearances thus far in 2017, Recker is slashing .223/.301/.381.

The Braves aren’t likely to make a postseason push, so the club could now safely part with Garcia. Of course, there have also been whispers that Atlanta is looking at adding a controllable starter as soon as this summer. That remains a somewhat low-likelihood proposition, at least as viewed on paper, though it’s worth noting that this deal will free up some finances, which may conceivably aid the team’s efforts to add a pitcher who can be retained past the present season.

Atlanta will also pick up a prospect that has value. Ynoa (the younger brother of Michael Ynoa) just turned 19 years old and has yet to advance out of Rookie ball. This year, he has struggled through just 25 2/3 innings in the Appalachian League, allowing 15 earned runs with 23 strikeouts and 14 walks. MLB.com rates him as the Twins’ 22nd-best overall prospect. Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, meanwhile, tweets that he sees Ynoa’s upside as at most a #4 type of starter — an outcome that’d be plenty valuable, but perhaps still remains a best-case scenario.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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