MLBTR Originals
Recapping this week’s original content from MLBTR…
- Even after acquiring Andrew McCutchen, the Giants are in the market for a center fielder. San Francisco’s preference to stay under the $197MM luxury tax threshold may limit its options, though Steve Adams still found 13 reasonably priced candidates whom the club could acquire via free agency or trade.
- With McCutchen, Gerrit Cole, Evan Longoria and Yangervis Solarte having been part of recent deals, Jeff Todd updated his list of the league’s top 60 trade candidates. The piece is loaded with household names, including Christian Yelich and Chris Archer.
- In the newest editions of MLBTR’s Free Agent Profile series (links: 1, 2), Steve examined right-hander Alex Cobb‘s case for a big payday, while Kyle Downing did the same with reliever Greg Holland.
- Brewers right-hander Tim Dillard provided his latest Inner Monologue, this one touching on subjects including “Star Wars” and giveaway nights.
- The contract extension portion of the offseason isn’t far away, leading Jeff to break down the largest deals given to veterans entering their final year of team control.
- After news broke that Marlins second baseman Starlin Castro would prefer to play elsewhere in 2018, I tried to find plausible fits for him via trade. It wasn’t easy.
- The latest poll at MLBTR focused on where free agent right-hander Yu Darvish will sign. The plurality of voters see him ending up with the Cubs. On the other hand, the results suggest there’s little hope for a Darvish-Dodgers reunion.
Orioles Interested In Jarrod Dyson
Free agent outfielder Jarrod Dyson is a possibility for the Orioles, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The club has “checked his medicals,” Kubatko writes.
This is the second straight offseason in which Dyson has been on the Orioles’ radar, as Kubatko notes that general manager Dan Duquette discussed Dyson with Kansas City before the Royals traded him to the Mariners last winter. Now, Dyson would provide the Orioles a left-handed-hitting outfielder – which is on their offseason wish list – to add to a group that currently includes four righties (Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Austin Hays and Joey Rickard) and a switch-hitter (Anthony Santander). Notably, the 33-year-old Dyson owns pronounced platoon splits, having hit a meager .215/.293/.259 against left-handed pitchers during his career and a playable .267/.331/.372 versus righties.
While he has never been a major threat with the bat, including during a.251/.324/.350 showing in 2017 with the Mariners, Dyson has provided significant value with both his glove and legs. Since debuting with the Royals in 2010, Dyson has accounted for 55 Defensive Runs Saved and a 52.1 Ultimate Zone Rating in center field, and he managed terrific numbers in those categories last year (10 DRS, 5.4 UZR). With Jones entrenched in center field, it seems Dyson would mostly play right in Baltimore. Regardless, he’d strengthen an Orioles outfield that finished last season 23rd in DRS (minus-15) and 29th in UZR (minus-21.1).
As a team, the Orioles struggled mightily on the base paths in 2017, ranking dead last in steals (32) and a similarly woeful 28th in FanGraphs’ BsR metric. That’s another area in which Dyson would help, as he swiped 28 bags on 35 attempts in 2017 and hasn’t ended a season with fewer than 26 steals since he started seeing extensive action in 2011. Dyson has also graded out well according to BsR, most recently placing 12th among 287 major leaguers with at least 300 plate appearances last season.
Considering Dyson’s strengths and the Orioles’ weaknesses, a fit would seem to make sense, though Kubatko cautions that they’d need to be “sold on his health” for a signing to happen. With Dyson being an aging player who underwent sports hernia surgery last September, that may not be a sure thing.
Quick Hits: Moustakas, Blackmon, Kipnis
A few notes from around MLB as we wrap up another day in this historically sluggish offseason…
- While free agent third baseman Mike Moustakas hasn’t drawn much reported interest of late, that wasn’t the case early in the offseason, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes. However, teams that initially pursued Moustakas balked at his asking price, Feinsand adds. Now, at least one general manager expects Moustakas to land a far less valuable deal than some outlets – including MLBTR – projected entering the offseason. “When you see what (Jay) Bruce got from the Mets, it’s hard to see Moustakas getting more than that,” said the GM, referring to Bruce’s three-year, $39MM contract. While Bruce will play his age-31 season in 2018 and Moustakas won’t turn 30 until September, the former did not enter the winter with a qualifying offer attached. Moustakas did, which is among a few factors that have worked against him on the market, as Feinsand details in his piece.
- Center fielder Charlie Blackmon could be part of one of the best free agent classes of all-time next year, but he’s open to signing an extension with the Rockies and forgoing a trip to the market. “It’s a two-way street,” the 31-year-old told Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I really like playing here. It’s been a great place to be. I like the people. I like the teammates. And I’ve also been on a one-year situation for the past three to four years, so it doesn’t really change anything for me. I’m used to that go-out-and-produce mindset. Hopefully, something happens. That would be great.” If something doesn’t happen, the reigning NL batting champion (.331) will play 2018 for $14MM and vie for a third straight star-caliber season.
- The Indians reportedly plan to play Jason Kipnis at second base in 2018, but they haven’t yet informed him of that, Jordan Bastian of MLB.com relays. It’s “more than likely” Kipnis will man the keystone, manager Terry Francona acknowledged, though Bastian notes that he may open the year in left field if Michael Brantley isn’t ready to return from the right ankle surgery he underwent in October. Kipnis, for his part, is “excited to play wherever they need me.” The career-long Indian, 30, also indicated he’s pleased to still be with Cleveland, despite offseason trade rumors.
AL Notes & Rumors: Archer, Royals, Dozier, Red Sox
It remains unclear whether the Rays will move Chris Archer, but Jon Morosi of MLB.com writes that they and other teams have been “engaged in consistent trade talks” centering on the right-hander “in recent weeks.” Archer, a 29-year-old front-end starter who’s on one of baseball’s most appealing contracts (he’s controllable through 2021 for $34MM), has unsurprisingly drawn reported interest from a host of teams this offseason. Dealing Archer and his $6.25MM salary would help the Rays with their goal to cut payroll for 2018, but it would obviously make it all the more difficult for the team to compete in a division featuring Boston, New York and an active Toronto club.
More AL rumblings:
- If the Royals re-sign free agent first baseman Eric Hosmer, they’ll give more serious consideration to trading left-hander Danny Duffy, closer Kelvin Herrera and right-hander Jason Hammel, according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. Bringing back Hosmer and keeping those players would ostensibly give the Royals a better chance to compete in 2018, though they’re reportedly in line to cut payroll and rebuild even if they do re-up him. Of Duffy, Herrera and Hammel, the former is the priciest – he’s owed $60MM through 2021, including $14MM this season – but also likely the player with the most trade value. Both Herrera and Hammel could become free agents in a year, depending in part on what happens with the latter’s $12MM mutual option for 2019. In the meantime, Herrera will earn $7.94MM this year, and Hammel will collect $9MM.
- The Twins still haven’t discussed a contract extension with Brian Dozier, and the star second baseman informed Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com that he’s “a little bit” surprised about that. The club is waiting on potential extensions until spring training draws closer, per Bollinger, though Dozier seems prepared to test the market in a year if Minnesota doesn’t make him a suitable offer by next winter. “I’ve had a lot of talks with a lot of guys about approaching free agency and how to handle it,” Dozier said. “I don’t want to get too caught up in it. But it is the writing on the wall and the elephant in the room.” Dozier, who will turn 31 in May, is slated to play the final season of a four-year, $20MM contract extension in 2018. That deal has been an absolute bargain for the Twins, who saw Dozier account for 14.2 fWAR/13.3 rWAR and bat .258/.335/.496 with 104 home runs over the first three years of the pact.
- Red Sox left-hander Brian Johnson has drawn trade interest this offseason, Cafardo reports. The hurler is out of minor league options, meaning the Red Sox could lose him to waivers if they don’t trade him and he doesn’t make their 25-man roster, Cafardo notes. Johnson, a first-round pick of the Red Sox in 2012 and a former top 100 prospect, has seen minimal big league action to this point (31 1/3 innings). The 27-year-old tossed 27 1/3 major league frames across five starts last season and did OK, notching a 4.33 ERA/4.90 FIP with 7.0 K/9 and 2.67 BB/9. Johnson fared better over 90 1/3 Triple-A innings (3.09 ERA/4.19 FIP, 6.97 K/9, 2.79 BB/9).
Twins Interested In Wade Miley
The Twins and the agents for Yu Darvish, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Wade Miley, Chris Tillman and Mike Napoli are “maintaining regular dialogue,” according to Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN (on Twitter). Minnesota’s interest in nearly all of those names was already known before Saturday, though this is the first reported connection between the team and Miley.
While the Twins are seeking a front-end starter to complement their only reliable options – Ervin Santana and Jose Berrios – chief baseball officer Derek Falvey revealed this week that they’re also pursuing “value adds” for their rotation. The 31-year-old Miley would qualify as the latter, considering the struggles the left-hander has endured lately.
As a member of the Orioles in 2017, Miley made 32 starts to reach the 30 mark for the fifth straight year, but he averaged fewer than five innings per appearance and finished with 157 1/3 frames – the lowest full-season total of his career. He also notched personal worsts in ERA (5.61), FIP (5.27) and walks per nine (5.32). As a result, the Orioles decided after the season to decline Miley’s $12MM option for 2018 in favor of a $500K buyout, thus sending him to the open market.
Despite his impressive track record of durability, run prevention hasn’t been a strong suit for Miley for the majority of his career, which began in 2011. At his best, Miley combined for an outstanding 3.44 ERA/3.57 FIP across 397 1/3 innings as a Diamondback from 2012-13. Since then, he has pitched to a 4.89 ERA/4.32 FIP over 718 1/3 frames in Arizona, Boston, Seattle and Baltimore.
Miley, to his credit, isn’t that far removed from serving as a competent innings eater with the Red Sox in 2015. And while last season was mostly disastrous, he did manage an 8.12 K/9 – the second-highest figure of his career – along with a quality groundball percentage (50.3). Maintaining those numbers and cutting walks closer to his career mark (3.13 BB/9) would help make Miley a useful back-end option for the Twins or another club in 2018. He’ll also need positive regression in the home run department after last year saw him record a 19.4 percent HR-to-fly ball rate (compared to a lifetime 12.5 percent).
East Notes: Mets, Wright, Colon, Jays, Red Sox, Sale
Injuries to his neck, spine, shoulder and back have limited Mets third baseman David Wright to 75 games since the start of 2015, derailing a potential Hall of Fame career. Now, having not played in a game since May 2016 and having undergone back surgery in October, Wright realizes the Mets can’t count on him heading into the new season. “It really hurts to say this, but I obviously can’t be relied on to go out there and do what I’ve done throughout my career,” the 35-year-old told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. “That is a tough thing to say.” Wright added that he hasn’t made enough progress since his latest surgery to know if his back is going to hold up in 2018, though he expects to find out “closer to spring.” Unfortunately, Wright’s injuries have made the eight-year, $138MM extension he signed in 2012 a poor investment for the Mets. He’s still in line to collect $47MM over the next three years.
More from New York and two other East Coast cities:
- The Blue Jays have addressed their position player group in recent weeks with the additions of Randal Grichuk, Curtis Granderson, Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz. The club still has around $10MM left to spend, and it’s primarily focused on finding a fifth starter and bolstering its bullpen, per Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com. The Jays also “remain in the mix for backup catching depth,” Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet writes. For now, Joe Biagini is penciled in as Toronto’s No. 5 starter behind Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. Biagini has spent the majority of his two-year career in the bullpen, however, and could shift back there in the event of an outside acquisition. In doing so, he’d presumably help a unit that lost reliever Dominic Leone in the Grichuk trade.
- The Mets have shown offseason interest in free agent right-hander Bartolo Colon, former Twins teammate Ervin Santana told Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press. “He just wants to win six more games and then he will retire,” Santana said of the soon-to-be 45-year-old Colon, who’s six victories away from passing Dennis Martinez’s 245 and becoming the winningest Latin American-born pitcher ever. Colon spent 2014-16 as a Met, with whom he was a reliable fan favorite. After a subpar 2017 divided between Atlanta and Minnesota, Colon was reportedly willing to consider a minor league deal to rejoin the Mets earlier this offseason, though indications were that they weren’t all that interested.
- Red Sox left-hander Chris Sale wasn’t as effective in the second half of last season as he was during the first, which has led to a change in routine this winter for the 28-year-old ace, as he explained to Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. “I’ve made a couple tweaks to my throwing this year,” Sale said. “Started a bit later trying to ease into it a little more. In terms of working out, started working out earlier, doing pilates. The same things I’ve been doing conditioning and strength wise, just kind of dialing back my throwing program.” Manager Alex Cora, pitching coach Dana LeVangie and the Red Sox trainers are all on board with the changes, per Sale, who insists it won’t mean a lighter workload in 2018. Rather, after leading the American League with 214 1/3 innings last season, he expects to be similarly durable this year.
AL Notes: Rangers, Cain, Twins, Red Sox, Kimbrel
In updating the Rangers’ pursuit of starters, Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes that there has recently been “more activity between” other teams and free agent right-hander Yu Darvish. However, having spent nearly all of his career in Texas, Darvish is waiting for the Rangers to court him more aggressively, Wilson suggests. The Rangers expect him to land better offers elsewhere, though, per two club officials who spoke with Wilson, who adds that they continue to view Alex Cobb more favorably than Lance Lynn when it comes to available second-tier starters. Regardless, a significant free agent investment doesn’t seem likely for the Rangers, general manager Jon Daniels indicated.
Regarding free agents in general and Texas’ reported interest in center fielder Lorenzo Cain, Daniels said: “We want to play Delino (DeShields) in center field. Obviously, Cain’s a very good player. I would figure that if we have another big expenditure it would be on the pitching side. I’ve said all along I think it’s unlikely either way.”
More on a couple other AL franchises:
- The Twins, who have been among Darvish’s pursuers this offseason, don’t have a “budget limitation” when it comes to addressing their rotation, chief baseball officer Derek Falvey told Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. Falvey wouldn’t comment on any single player, but he did note that he sees “5-10 pitchers out there who could impact us.” Beyond the top available options, the Twins are also looking at “value adds that could help us,” Falvey revealed. Owner Jim Pohlad was willing to discuss Darvish, on the other hand, stating he’s “on board” with signing him. Pohlad added that he’s “as intrigued by [Darvish] as anybody and attracted to [signing him] as anybody” (via Bollinger).
- Although Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel is entering a contract year, he and the club have not discussed an extension. The 29-year-old Kimbrel is open to staying with the Sox for the long haul, though, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald relays. While Kimbrel has been an elite closer for most of his career, including during an otherworldly 2017 in which he logged a 1.43 ERA with 16.43 K/9 and 1.83 BB/9 over 69 innings, new manager Alex Cora may use him earlier in games this year if the situation calls for it. Kimbrel addressed that, saying: “There will definitely have to be a plan in place, and it’s going to come from both sides, mine and his side. I’m sure we’ll be able to talk something out and it’s going to be based off workload and things like that. It’s just the way the game is going.” Mastrodonato posits that fewer saves in 2018 could mean fewer dollars for Kimbrel on his next contract, though I’d argue that teams already know what he’s capable of in the ninth inning. Thriving in a slightly different role could make him all the more attractive as a free agent, then.
- A reunion with free agent left-hander Francisco Liriano is not high on the Twins’ list of priorities, according to Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press (Twitter link). Liriano began his career in Minnesota and flourished at times as a starter with the club from 2005-12, but he’s now coming off a pair of less-than-stellar seasons in which he pitched for a combined three times (Pittsburgh, Toronto and Houston). After finishing last year as a reliever with the World Series-winning Astros, it’s unclear whether the 34-year-old will continue in that role or move back to the rotation with his next employer – which apparently won’t be the Twins.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Donaldson, Rays
There’s no official decision yet regarding where Manny Machado will play in 2018, but one could come as soon as this weekend. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com provides some insight into Orioles manager Buck Showalter’s thought process in determining the young star’s position. Showalter has spoken with both Machado and Tim Beckham in regards to Baltimore’s infield alignment, and though nothing is definite yet, Kubatko seems to have confidence that the O’s will grant Machado’s wishes to move him to shortstop this coming season, which would in turn push Beckham to third base or into a super utility role. Showalter also offers some very honest evaluations of Mike Moustakas as well as the price points of some of the high-end free agent pitchers on the market. In addition, he delves into Baltimore’s catcher situation.
A few other notes out of the AL East…
- Josh Donaldson told reporters today that, to his knowledge, his agent has not been engaged with the Blue Jays regarding a potential contract extension (hat tip to Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com). This doesn’t necessarily eliminate the possibility that extension talks have taken place, but it certainly casts doubt on it. Donaldson has been the third most valuable player in baseball by fWAR (21.4) since he was traded to Toronto prior to the 2015 season, Though he started off slowly last season, he still managed an excellent .270/.385/.559 batting line for the campaign while hitting 33 homers. He’d be one of the marquee free agents of an impressive 2018, though the fact that he’ll be nearly 33 by the beginning of November will detract from his value in comparison with players like Bryce Harper and Machado.
- Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times points out that the Rays are in a position to enter 2018 with both a higher payroll than last season and less talent on the roster overall. Of course, there’s still plenty of time for the team to make more moves. Topkin cites the lack of activity industry wide as a factor that has “paralyzed” the organization, but believes that once the “dam finally breaks,” they’ll have a lot of things to address. He quotes GM Erik Neander, who describes the team’s to do list as similar to what it was at the outset of the offseason. Topkin mentions a number of candidates who could possibly be traded in order to cut payroll for the team, including closer Alex Colome and the recently-acquired Denard Span. From my own standpoint, it’s not unfair to wonder whether Tampa Bay has any chance to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox as things stand now, let alone if the team continues to make cuts to a payroll that’s one of the lowest in baseball. That can only increase the trade speculation surrounding Chris Archer, Colome, and others on the roster.
Red Sox Notes: Roster, Swihart, Pomeranz, Protective Netting
Recent comments from Red Sox GM Dave Dombrowski hint that the front office would feel confident going into the 2017 season with the pieces they have in the fold right now. But Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston isn’t convinced at all. In a candid editorial, Drellich blasts Dombrowski for his supposed comfort with the current roster. “Who really believes this?” Drellich writes. “Who really believes the Red Sox could proceed into the season comfortably without some external improvement? You’re in a market competing with the Patriots, a division with the Yankees, and a league with the Astros, and this is what you’re bringing to the table?” He seems particularly miffed by a comment that the team “could stay with anybody”; Drellich rejects such logic by stating that the team’s goal should not be to “stay” with other teams, but rather to be outright better.
Tim Britton of the Providence Journal agrees with Drellich’s stance in his own piece, pointing out the lack of a middle-of-the-order slugger in Boston’s lineup. Britton also exposes Dombrowski’s supposed level of comfort by pulling a quote of his from the day after the club’s ALDS loss to Houston. “I didn’t supply the players that would give us enough runs. We do need that,” Dombrowski said at that time. Indeed, it doesn’t seem as though he’s done anything to follow through on that so far this winter. The club is, of course, still engaged in discussions with free agent slugger J.D. Martinez, and for his part, Drellich believes a deal will get done. But while Dombrowski seems comfortable taking his time in negotiations with Martinez (waiting for “the ice to melt,” in his own words), one has to wonder what kind of backlash he’ll face in the harsh Boston media if another team swoops in and inks the righty-hitter to a deal first.
A few other items out of Boston…
- It’s evident that Blake Swihart has thus far been unable to live up to his top prospect billing; he’s been unable to stick at catcher due to poor defense, and his lifetime .270/.330/.380 batting line at the MLB level leaves plenty to be desired. But he’ll enter spring training without any minor league options remaining, and the Sox are intent on finding a spot for him on the roster, according to a tweet from Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Drellich adds in his own tweet that Swihart “finally feels healthy,” and is confident in his ability to play all nine positions on the diamond (though there’s obvious reason for skepticism about the latter point). Swihart was ranked as Boston’s consensus number one prospect following a 2014 season during which he hit .300/.353/.487 at the Double-A level, though it should be noted that he struggled to get on base following a promotion to Triple-A.
- Drellich also tweets that although left-hander Drew Pomeranz is open to a long-term extension with the Red Sox, the two sides have not discussed one to date. The 29-year-old southpaw made 32 starts for Boston in 2017, pitching 173 2/3 innings of 3.32 ERA baseball. He’s set to become a free agent at the end of the season.
- The Red Sox have announced that they’ll be expanding their protective netting in 2018. The press release describes the expansion as follows: “The new netting system will extend from Field Box Section 79 to Field Box Section 9, expanded from an area previously covering Field Box Section 61 to Field Box Section 29. It will be positioned with the same consistent height as the existing system, which stands at 12 feet, 8 inches above the playing field.” As Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports notes, Boston will join the Yankees and Blue Jays as teams who have recently expanded their netting in order to improve fan safety.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/20/18
We’ll keep track of today’s minor moves in this post…
- The Indians have inked a minors pact with lefty reliever Adam Wilk, who’ll receive an invite to spring training. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Wilk stands to make $560K if he makes the opening day roster, and can opt out of his contract if he doesn’t. The 30-year-old pitched 14 MLB innings last season with the Mets and Twins; he’s also played for the Tigers and Angels during his big-league career. Wilk averages just 88 MPH on his fastball, but boasts a five-pitch repertoire. He throws a four-seamer, sinker, slider, curve and change up; each makes up at least 10% of his pitch selection. For his career, the southpaw has a 7.36 ERA. Right-handed batters have hit .331/.380/.664 against him.