Central Notes: Votto, Kinsler, Twins Pitching Targets
Just in case there was any doubt, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes in response to a fan inquiry that there’s no indication whatsoever that Reds first baseman Joey Votto will end up being moved this winter. The polished batsman, who very nearly took home National League MVP honors for the 2017 season, has given every indication that “he doesn’t want to leave the Reds,” says Sheldon, and can control his own fate through a full no-trade clause.
- Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler does not enjoy quite so much control over his own fate, but does have a ten-team no-trade list that was drawn up at the end of the 2017 campaign.* Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription link) has the latest on his interesting trade candidacy, including a look at the feasibility of a move to third for the veteran — which some teams have reportedly considered as they weigh an offer to acquire him. At present, it is not publicly known which teams have contemplated that possibility or — yet more importantly — which are among those that cannot acquire Kinsler without his consent. The Detroit organization would obviously need to work with Kinsler and his representatives if it were to find a match with one of the ten protected rivals, but Strang reports that, at least as of last week, that subject has not yet been broached. As we discussed in examining his potential market yesterday, there are perhaps only a few very clear trade matches on paper at this point, though certainly a fair number of others could be imagined depending upon a variety of factors. Kinsler’s no-trade rights may not come into play at all, but might also afford him an opportunity to nix a move if it is not to his liking.
- While the Twins are said to be taking a look at a variety of controllable starters, there’s “no indication” at this point that they have engaged with the Rays on Chris Archer or the Marlins on Dan Straily, according to Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press (via Twitter). It stands to reason, though, that both would at least draw internal consideration. The former is quite a lofty target for any team, as he’d draw huge interest if he’s made available in trade talks. The latter is a useful hurler in his own right after turning in solid results for two consecutive years. Straily’s affordable control would surely hold some appeal to Minnesota, though for the same reason the Marlins will likely set forth a relatively steep asking price for a starter who is noted more for his steadiness and contract than anything approaching dominant peripherals.
- The Twins will need to chase down some relief arms, too. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports on his podcast (audio link) that the club has engaged the Padres on Brad Hand and the Rays on Alex Colome. Minnesota was previously reported to have chatted with the Reds about Raisel Iglesias, and these new names fit the same general profile as established late-inning arms with affordable remaining control. All will come with appropriately lofty price tags. Berardino also tweets that Cubs lefty Justin Wilson might represent a target for the Twins. Having struggled last year upon landing in Chicago, Wilson could conceivably become available, though that’s far from certain. Minnesota eyed the power southpaw in the past, says Berardino, though that occurred before the current front office leadership came into office.
*An earlier version of this post wrongly suggested that Kinsler had not yet compiled his current no-trade list and mistakenly attributed that notion to Strang’s report. The error was ours and we apologize for any confusion.
Process For Signing Prospects Stripped From Braves
Yesterday brought final word on the long-awaited penalties for the Braves’ amateur signing infractions. Among other things, the Atlanta organization has been stripped of a dozen prospects who were brought in through improper means.
Many of those players were part of a highly-regarded crop of international talent, so they will be of keen interest to other teams. That’s particularly true now that they have had their first taste of the minors, increasing the information available to make an evaluation. MLB will also stage a showcase at the end of the month for these young players.
New information, of course, isn’t always a good thing. Kevin Maitan, the top name on the list of newly-minted free agents, certainly did not boost his stock with a .220/.273/.323 showing in the Appalachian League. Those with Baseball America subscriptions will certainly want to read an updated scouting report on Maitan from J.J. Cooper, who also provides a look at the best of the other prospects who have now been set free.
So, what’s the process for signing these players? We learned some elements of the process yesterday, and MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo provides a more complete look at the ad hoc rules that will apply here. Here’s a breakdown:
- The players — who get to keep their original bonuses but cannot be represented by the agents that negotiated their original contracts — will be subject to international signing pool restrictions but are otherwise free to sign with any organization.
- MLB teams will be allowed a fresh $200K of bonus pool space to work with to sign any of these prospects. They may elect to draw from either their current signing period pool allocation or that of the 2018-19 period (but not both).
- All MLB teams but the Braves can sign the prospects between December 5th of this year and January 15th of the next. Any players that do not sign within that period will no longer be eligible to receive a signing bonus. The Braves are eligible to pursue any still-unsigned prospects (without a bonus offer) beginning on May 1, 2018.
NL Central Notes: Brewers, Brinson, Cardinals, Martinez
Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported yesterday that the Brewers have shown interest in Jake Arrieta, and in a followup column he writes that they’ve expressed interest in most of the top starters on the market, including right-hander Lance Lynn. Milwaukee will be without Jimmy Nelson for a yet-undetermined portion of the 2018 season due to shoulder surgery, and with question marks in the rotation behind Chase Anderson and Zach Davies, shoring up the starting five is a priority for GM David Stearns and his staff. While there’s certainly the possibility that they’ll be outbid on the top names in free agency, the Brewers do have considerable payroll space to surprise people with their spending this winter.
More out of Milwaukee and the division…
- Top Brewers prospect Lewis Brinson has changed representation and is now a client of the Legacy Agency, tweets Robert Murray of FanRag Sports. The 23-year-old center fielder made his MLB debut in 2017 but struggled greatly in 55 plate appearances, hitting just .106/.236/.277. However, Brinson tore through Triple-A at a .331/.400/.562 pace through 340 PAs and is widely regarded as one of the top overall prospects in all of baseball. His switch has been noted in MLBTR’s Agency Database, which contains info on more than 2,500 Major League and minor league players. If you see any errors or omissions, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.
- The Cardinals‘ search for an impact bat is expansive, writes Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak and his staff have had discussions with virtually every impact bat on the market, including Eric Hosmer, and their trade talks with the Marlins have gone beyond Giancarlo Stanton and also touched on Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich (presumably not in the same deal). Two execs with other teams told Goold that the Cardinals have been aggressive in trade talks thus far. “We’ve got capacity to increase our payroll depending on the right situation,” owner Bill DeWitt Jr. tells Goold.
- Jose Martinez is utilizing the Venezuelan Winter League to further familiarize himself with playing first base, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. The Cardinals gave Martinez, who has spent most of his career in the outfield, 29 starts at first last season and plan to use him there again in 2018 (though more in a backup role). Martinez has started nine of his 13 VWL games at first base and figures to continue to gain more exposure there over the course of the offseason. The 29-year-old hit .309/.379/.518 with 14 homers in 307 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2017.
MLB, MLBPA, NPB Reach “Tentative” Agreement On New Posting System
9:53pm: Jim Allen of the Kyodo News hears that the current expectation is that Ohtani will formally be posted on Dec. 2 (Twitter link). That’d give teams until Dec. 23 to strike a deal with Ohtani, based on the three-week window reported by Sherman.
5:40pm: After a lengthy negotiation period, Major League Baseball, the players’ union and Nippon Professional Baseball have reached a “tentative” agreement on a new posting system that will include this offseason and continue on into the next three offseasons, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (via Twitter).
The agreement still must be ratified by the ownership of all 30 Major League teams, which won’t happen until next Friday according to Sherman. As such, the earliest that Shohei Ohtani can formally be posted for clubs will be next Friday — Dec. 1. Submarine righty Kazuhisa Makita has also requested that the Seibu Lions post him and is likely to be made available to MLB clubs by the new posting system as well.
MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets that the rules of the previous posting system will apply for this offseason (and Ohtani and Makita). In other words, the Fighters will set the maximum $20MM posting fee for Ohtani, and any club that is willing to meet that release fee will be able to negotiate with Ohtani and his reps at CAA.
Sherman tweets that the union pushed for a shorter negotiation window for Ohtani this offseason, to which NPB consented, so teams will have 21 days to work out a deal, though Ohtani will be considered an international amateur and thus be subject to international bonus pools. The Rangers ($3.535MM) have a slight edge over the Yankees ($3.5MM) for the largest pool, followed by the Twins ($3.245MM).
Previous reports have suggested that the three sides have been brokering a system in which the NPB team that posts a player will receive a sum that is equal to a percentage of the posted player’s contract with a new team. Sticking points in negotiations have included the date range from which NPB players can be posted — the MLBPA has been pushing for a brief posting window early in the offseason so as not to impede domestic free agency — as well as the possibility of the NPB team being able to pull the player back if it is not satisfied with the contract he signs.
According to Sherman, the new posting system will not have a pullback feature. Rather, NPB agreed to scrap that feature in favor of a graduated rate of return based on the overall size of the player’s contract. The scale is as follows, per Sherman:
- For a Major League contract of $25MM or less, an NPB club would receive a sum equal to 20 percent of the contract’s total value.
- For a Major League contract of $25-50MM, an NPB club would receive a sum equal to 17.5 percent of the contract’s total value.
- For a Major League contract of $50MM or more, an NPB club would receive a sum equal to 15 percent of the contract’s total value.
That creates some interesting scenarios, as it would actually be of greater benefit for an NPB club to see its former player sign for $24.5MM than $27MM and more beneficial for a former player to sign for $49.5MM than for $57MM. Beginning next offseason, NPB clubs will have from Nov. 1 through Dec. 5 to formally post a player, and negotiation windows will last for 30 days, Sherman further tweets.
The most important takeaway from the tentative agreement, obviously, is that it now seems clear Ohtani will indeed be posted and thus made available to big league clubs. The further delay in his formal posting means that Ohtani could continue to further delay the development of the market for more expensive arms on the domestic free-agent market, but tonight’s agreement at least gets the ball rolling toward some resolution on the most intriguing international free agent in recent history.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/21/17
Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league…
- Infielder Niko Goodrum has agreed to a minor league deal with the Tigers, according to his agents at Reynolds Sports Management (on Twitter). The longtime Twins farmhand made his big league debut as a September callup in 2017 but logged just 18 plate appearances for a Twins team that couldn’t afford to give many at-bats to unproven talent as it fought for a playoff spot. The 25-year-old (26 in February) switch-hitter batted .265/.309/.425 in his first taste of Triple-A this past season and has batted .258/.344/.419 in parts of two Double-A seasons. A former second-round pick (2010), Goodrum has primarily been a shortstop in the minors but also has considerable experience at third base, second base and in the outfield corners.
Twins Have Explored Trades For Gerrit Cole, Jake Odorizzi
The Twins are known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades and have already been linked to top free agents Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta, but they’re also poking around the trade market. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports that Minnesota has spoken to the Pirates about Gerrit Cole and also engaged the Rays in discussions on Jake Odorizzi (Twitter links). Both righties come with two remaining years of team control.
It’s not at all clear that the Pirates intend to aggressively shop Cole this offseason, though as a low-payroll club Pittsburgh always has to willing to at least entertain offers for its top talents. Cole certainly falls into that category, though he had somewhat of a down season in 2017. The former No. 1 overall pick logged 203 innings with the Bucs, marking his second career 200-inning campaign, but he also posted a career-worst 4.26 ERA. That was largely attributable to to a massive spike in his homer-to-flyball ratio (15.9 percent), which led to a career-worst 1.37 HR/9 mark.
However, Cole’s 2017 season also came with cause for optimism. The 27-year-old saw both his strikeout and walk rates bounce back from 2016, as he averaged 8.7 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 while maintaining a solid ground-ball rate (45.8 percent) and averaging 96 mph on his fastball. Cole’s average exit velocity of 85.4 mph ranked in the top quarter of the league (100th out of 438 pitchers, min. 100 batted-ball events). MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegs Cole for a $7.5MM salary next season.
As for Odorizzi, he’ll turn 28 in March and recently wrapped a season in which he tossed 143 1/3 innings with a 4.14 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and a more troubling 1.88 HR/9. Odorizzi has seen his walk and home-run rates increase each year since 2015. He’s averaged 30 starts per year in the past four seasons but has also averaged just 167 innings per year in that time. He’s projected to earn 6.5MM next year. As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted in previewing the Rays’ offseason, Tampa Bay has a pretty notable payroll crunch, which could lead to plenty of Odorizzi chatter this season given his projected salary and relatively limited club control.
Of course, the Twins have one of the largest figures that any team can offer Japanese star Shohei Ohtani ($3.245MM), and Berardino tweets that the team is indeed preparing its pitch for the potential ace. He also notes that Minnesota is focusing more on the rotation than the bullpen. Top-tier names like Wade Davis and Greg Holland aren’t likely to be on the Twins’ radar, he notes, though second-tier options will be in play as the offseason wears on.
Angels To Hire Brad Ausmus As Special Assistant To GM
The Angels are set to hire former Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus as a special assistant to GM Billy Eppler, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. In further Angels news, George A. King III of the New York Post tweets that they’ve also settled on Yankees minor league catching coordinator Josh Paul as their new bench coach.
Ausmus, 48, spent the 2014-17 seasons as the Tigers’ manager but was let go at the end of the ’17 season as the Tigers sought a new voice for their rebuilding club (ultimately settling on longtime division rival Ron Gardenhire). Fletcher notes that Ausmus will assist the Angels in scouting and evaluation of in-house players, amateurs and players in other organizations.
Ausmus recently had a lengthy Q&A with Katie Strang of The Athletic in which he explained that he plans to take a year off from the rigors of serving as a big league manager. Ausmus acknowledged that he did interview with the Red Sox, but did so due to the unique appeal that the opportunity held with him as a childhood Red Sox fan with a house in Cape Cod and other family nearby. (He reportedly drew interest from multiple other organizations but turned down the opportunity to interview.)
Paul, 42, spent the 2004-05 seasons playing for the Angels under manager Mike Scioscia as part of a nine-year big league career as a catcher. He’s managed in the Yankees’ minor league system and is a know commodity to Eppler, who served as an assistant GM in the Bronx prior to being hired as the Angels’ general manager. He’ll be replacing Dino Ebel, who was moved to third base coach after Ron Roenicke left the organization to join the Red Sox’ new coaching staff under rookie manager Alex Cora.
Cubs Name Will Venable First Base Coach, Add Jim Benedict To Front Office
The Cubs announced on Tuesday that they’ve named former big league outfielder Will Venable their new first base coach and hired Jim Benedict as a special assistant to the baseball operations department. The team also confirmed Brandon Hyde’s move to bench coach and the hiring Jim Hickey as its new pitching coach.
The 35-year-old Venable had recently retired and joined the club’s front office as a special assistant, but he’ll now join the team on the field and replace Hyde, who has moved from first base coach to bench coach. Venable was a strong defensive outfielder capable handling all three outfield spots at his peak, and he stole 135 bases in 166 tries (81.3 percent) in his big league career, so he’ll bring some wisdom in those areas to the Cubs’ young players.
Benedict spent the past two seasons as the Marlins’ vice president of pitching development and is renowned for the work he did in seven prior seasons with the Pirates. Benedict and Pittsburgh pitching coach Ray Searage are widely praised and credited for the Pirates’ success in reviving the careers of struggling pitchers such as A.J. Burnett, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon, Jason Grilli and Edinson Volquez, among others.
Benedict’s work in Pittsburgh was so highly regarded that in order to hire him away from the Pirates, the Marlins traded right-hander Trevor Williams to the Bucs for a considerably lesser prospect (right-hander Richard Mitchell) as a means of compensation.
MLB Announces Permanent Ban For John Coppolella
Major League Baseball has instituted a lifetime ban on former Braves general manager John Coppolella, according to an announcement from commissioner Rob Manfred. The heavy punishment comes as the league moves to punish his former organization for amateur signing infractions during his tenure as GM. Coppolella had already resigned from the Atlanta organization.
Beyond the lifetime ban for Coppolella, the Commissioner’s Office has banned former Braves international scouting director Gordon Blakeley for one year, and commissioner Rob Manfred has also indicated that other members of the Braves’ international scouting staff will be disciplined. Here’s the full statement from Manfred:
My office has completed a thorough investigation into violations of Major League Rules by the Atlanta Braves. The Braves cooperated throughout the investigation, which was conducted by MLB’s Department of Investigations. The senior Baseball Operations officials responsible for the misconduct are no longer employed by the Braves. I am confident that Terry McGuirk, John Schuerholz, Alex Anthopoulos and their staffs have and will put in place procedures to ensure that this type of conduct never occurs again and which will allow the Club to emerge from this difficult period as the strong and respected franchise that it has always been.
The investigation established that the Braves circumvented international signing rules from 2015 through 2017. During the 2015-16 international signing period, the Braves signed five players subject to the Club’s signing bonus pool to contracts containing signing bonuses lower than the bonuses the Club had agreed to provide the players. The Club provided the additional bonus money to those players by inflating the signing bonus to another player who was exempt from their signing pool because he qualified as a ‘foreign professional’ under MLB rules. Consistent with the rules, the Braves could have signed all of the 2015-16 players for the full, actual signing bonus amounts. Had the Club signed the five players to contracts containing their actual bonuses, however, the Braves would have exceeded their signing bonus pool by more than five percent and would have been, under MLB rules, restricted from signing any players during the next two signing periods for contracts with bonuses greater than $300,000.
As a result of the 2015-16 circumvention, the Braves were able to sign nine high-value players during the 2016-17 signing period who would have been unavailable to them had the Club accurately accounted for its signings during the 2015-16 signing period. These players were Juan Contreras, Yefri del Rosario, Abrahan Gutierrez, Kevin Maitan, Juan Carlos Negret, Yenci Peña, Yunior Severino, Livan Soto and Guillermo Zuniga. In addition, the Braves entered into additional ‘package’ agreements in 2016 and 2017 in which they signed Brandol Mezquita, Angel Rojas and Antonio Sucre for reduced amounts, and provided additional money to those players’ agents by signing other players affiliated with their agents to contracts with inflated bonuses. In order to remedy these violations, I am releasing these players from their contracts with the Braves and declaring them free agents eligible to sign with any other Club. The procedures governing the players’ release and the signing process will be communicated to MLB Clubs under separate cover.
The investigation also determined that the Braves: (i) agreed to sign six players to inflated signing bonuses pursuant to an agreement with prospect Robert Puason‘s agent in exchange for a commitment that Puason would sign with the Club in the 2019-20 signing period; and (ii) offered prospect Ji-Hwan Bae extra-contractual compensation. In order to remedy these violations, I am prohibiting the Club from signing Robert Puason when he becomes eligible to sign, and disapproving the contract between Bae and the Braves, which has not yet become effective.
While the remedies discussed above will deprive the Braves of the benefits of their circumvention, I believe that additional sanctions are warranted to penalize the Club for the violations committed by its employees. Accordingly, the Braves will be prohibited from signing any international player for more than $10,000 during the 2019-20 signing period, which is the first signing period in which the Braves are not subject to any signing restrictions under our rules; and the Braves’ international signing bonus pool for the 2020-21 signing period will be reduced by 50 percent.
The investigation also determined that the Braves offered impermissible benefits, which were never provided, to a player they selected in the First-Year Player Draft in an attempt to convince him to sign for a lower bonus. As a penalty for the Club’s attempted circumvention involving a draft selection, the Braves will forfeit their third-round selection in the 2018 First-Year Player Draft.
With respect to individual discipline, former Braves General Manager John Coppolella will be placed on the permanently ineligible list, effective immediately. Former Braves Special Assistant Gordon Blakeley will be suspended for a period of one year, effective immediately, and may not perform services for any MLB Club during his suspension. I intend to discipline other Braves’ International Baseball Operations employees who participated in the misconduct after the completion of our internal procedures. My staff will speak to the Players Association and officials in the Dominican Republic regarding appropriate consequences for the representatives of the players who intentionally participated in schemes to circumvent our rules, none of whom are certified by the Players Association.
The ramifications are significant for the Braves, whose capacity for amateur talent acquisition over the next several years will be hammered. Both Maitan and Gutierrez were ranked among the Braves’ top 30 prospects at MLB.com, with Maitan having ranked fifth overall and Gutierrez ranking 30th. The forfeiture of those prospects will mean that more than $10MM worth of amateur bonuses have now been squandered, and the Braves will also feel that pain of MLB’s sanctions in next year’s amateur draft and through the 2021 season on the international market.
The role that former president of baseball operations John Hart did or didn’t play in these infractions remains unclear, but Hart, who was given a reduced role in the front office upon the hiring of new GM Alex Anthopoulos, announced his resignation from the organization last week. A split between the two sides seemed largely inevitable; either Hart played a knowing role in the most significant circumvention of MLB’s international amateur free agency system to date, or he exhibited a stunning level of negligence in allowing these infractions to be committed without his knowledge. Neither of those scenarios seems excusable.
The Braves have also issued a statement on the matter:
Today, Major League Baseball informed the Atlanta Braves organization of sanctions being levied as a result of their investigation. As MLB stated, the Braves cooperated fully throughout this investigation and we understand and accept the decision regarding the penalties that have been handed down. As we expressed last week, our organization has not lived up to the standard our fans expect from us and that we expect from ourselves. For that, we apologize. We are instituting the changes necessary to prevent this from ever happening again and remain excited about the future of Braves baseball. We do not plan to comment further on this matter.
That the Braves won’t comment further on the matter runs somewhat contrary to comments made by Braves CEO Terry McGuirk last month. Speaking with Tim Tucker of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, McGuirk stated: “I don’t think there will be any questions (unanswered) when we are able to discuss it.”
Meanwhile, Blakeley has also issued a statement on his year-long suspension (via Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, on Facebook):
I am obviously very disappointed in the Commissioner’s decision regarding my suspension, particularly given my 32 years of untarnished service to the game. That said, I am in the digesting the Commissioner’s findings and considering all of my options going forward. I take responsibility for my actions in this situation; however, I always acted under the direction of my superiors.
Latest On NPB-MLB Posting Negotiations
Last night, we learned that the Major League Baseball Player’s Association had extended its deadline to finalize an agreement regarding the transfer system for players moving between Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball. With a new union-imposed stopping point at 8pm EST today, the parties in interest — including the three entities just mentioned as well as NPB’s member teams, individually — are expected to continue negotiating in hopes of finding agreement on posting rules that will allow NPB clubs to make certain players available to MLB teams — including, especially, young Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.
We’ll use this post to track and analyze the key news on talks as it hits the wire:
- There’s general optimism that something will get done, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. Sherman tweets that the talks are “down to [a] few items,” but notes that the signals are that tonight’s deadline is a firm one for reaching agreement.
Earlier Updates
- There has been a critical potential settlement of one major sticking point, according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). MLB and MLBPA have resolved their differences regarding the question of when NPB teams would have the ability to “pull back” posted players who do not achieve a contract that would convey sufficient transfer fee value to their would-be former organization. This provision — the details of which remain unknown — will still need to be considered by NPB and its teams, of course, but resolution of the matter might conceivably put the parties on track to finalizing a deal.
- “Pull back” rights are of particular importance to the system’s operation because the new rules under contemplation would allow NPB teams to collect a percentage of a contract’s guarantee as the transfer fee, rather than a fixed transfer amount determined before the player in question tries to work out an agreement with a MLB club. Understandably, NPB teams are interested in protecting themselves if a player’s market does not develop as hoped, while the union is likely concerned with the possibility that too much latitude might engender disruptions in the broader player market, potentially harming MLB free agents.
- While that report generally strikes an optimistic tone, Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears that “big hurdles” remain. Whether those revolve around the pull-back issue or others is not clear at this moment.