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NL Central Notes: Lynn, Pirates, Garza

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 8:56pm CDT

Right-hander Lance Lynn, who will make his return from 2016 Tommy John surgery this week, told the St. Louis media today that he hopes to spend his entire career with the Cardinals and is open to negotiating a new contract (via Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Lynn, however, acknowledged that the Cardinals may not be open to such a concept until he’s proven that he’s back to full health, suggesting the All-Star break as a possible time. “I don’t want to be a free agent,” said Lynn, “but if that comes up then I’ll take it and run with it and see where it goes.” Lynn hasn’t pitched since the 2015 playoffs and is in the final season of a three-year, $22MM contract that he signed prior to the 2015 season to buy out all of his arbitration years. In 791 1/3 career innings, Lynn has a 3.37 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 and a 44.4 percent ground-ball rate.

More from the division…

  • Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette takes an interesting look at the Pirates’ relationship with star outfielder Andrew McCutchen after exploring trades all winter. It’s a good read that features many people who are close to the 30-year-old, who’s under contract for the coming season and can be controlled for another year via club option. While McCutchen is all but certain to remain in Pittsburgh at least through the trade deadline, it’s still anybody’s guess whether he’ll remain thereafter.
  • The Pirates aren’t fretting over the fact that they’re without three of their top home run hitters from the 2016 season, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. While Sean Rodriguez, Jung Ho Kang and Matt Joyce combined to hit 34 percent of the team’s round-trippers last year, manager Clint Hurdle emphasized that one way to offset the loss is simply for his club to allow fewer runs. Hurdle adds that he believes there’s some untapped power in his lineup — Gregory Polanco and Josh Bell, in particular, seemingly have the potential to up their home run output, for instance. Biertempfel also notes that while some wondered whether the typically data-driven Pirates would begin to focus more on fly-balls and launch angle — an increasingly popular approach at the plate — hitting coach Jeff Branson strongly suggested otherwise. “I don’t get into all the launch-angle stuff,” Branson tells Biertempfel. “…if you start telling guys to hit the ball in the air, there are too many things that can go wrong, too many things that can get out of whack.” Branson later notes that he doesn’t dismiss launch angle entirely but also isn’t an expert on the matter. “We’re going to teach and talk about things we’re familiar with, things that we know work,” he adds.
  • Matt Garza is ahead of schedule as he looks to return from a groin strain that landed him on the 10-day disabled list to open the season, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. The veteran Brewers righty could begin a rehab assignment as soon as early next week, manager Craig Counsell tells McCalvy, adding that Garza will require at least two rehab outings before being reinstated. Milwaukee just lost Opening Day starter Junior Guerra for the next six weeks, at minimum, so the return of Garza will make for a welcome addition. While the 33-year-old hasn’t lived up to the four-year, $50MM deal he signed with Milwaukee, he quietly worked to a very solid 3.72 ERA with 6.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 57.5 percent ground-ball rate over the life of his final dozen starts in 2016 (65 1/3 innings).
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Milwaukee Brewers Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Andrew McCutchen Lance Lynn Matt Garza

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Nationals Re-Sign Aaron Barrett To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | April 4, 2017 at 6:35pm CDT

The Nationals have re-signed right-hander Aaron Barrett, tweets Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post. The team’s official transactions page, unsurprisingly, specifies that Barrett’s contract is of the minor league variety. He’s represented by Excel Sports.

The 29-year-old Barrett was once a setup man with the Nats but underwent Tommy John surgery late in the 2015 campaign. Last year, as he rehabbed from that injury, he suffered a fractured elbow, thus necessitating a second surgery. For the time being, Barrett is working out at the team’s Spring Training facility in West Palm Beach, Fla., according to Janes.

Barrett hasn’t thrown a pitch in the Majors since August of 2015, but prior to his initial ligament tear he’d taken on a late-inning role in former manager Matt Williams’ bullpen and handled it quite well. In 70 Major League innings between the 2014 and 2015 campaigns, Barrett pitched to a 3.47 ERA with 10.8 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, a 44.9 percent ground-ball rate and a fastball that averaged 93.8 mph. The former ninth-round pick was strong against right-handed and left-handed opponents, limiting righties to a paltry .225/.299/.294 while holding opposite-handed batters to a .239/.333/.337 slash.

It remains unclear exactly how far along Barrett is in his recovery from last year’s elbow fracture, but he’s now more than eight months removed from that unfortunate setback. Certainly, the Nationals will be cautious as he looks to return to full health for the first time in 18 months, though, so Nats fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Barrett pushing for a spot in the very near future. But we’ve seen players return from elbow fractures in less than a year’s time (e.g. Gavin Floyd in 2015) so it’s not unreasonable to think that Barrett could be back to full strength at some point this summer.

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Transactions Washington Nationals Aaron Barrett

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Minor MLB Transactions: 4/4/17

By Steve Adams | April 4, 2017 at 5:23pm CDT

Here are the day’s minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Mets have signed infielder Josh Rodriguez to a minor league contract, tweets Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. The 32-year-old Rodriguez, who briefly appeared in the Majors with the 2011 Pirates, will be returning for his third tour of duty with the Mets, having also spent the 2012-13 seasons and the 2015 season in their system. Rodriguez spent the 2016 campaign with the Athletics’ Triple-A affiliate, hitting .263/.381/.420 with nine homers in 342 plate appearances. The versatile Rodriguez has more than 4,000 career innings at shortstop, more than 2300 at second base and nearly 2000 at third base. He’s also had more brief stints in the outfield and at first base. He’ll head to Triple-A Las Vegas this season.
  • The Athletics have released first baseman Rangel Ravelo, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy (via Twitter). The 24-year-old Ravelo was one of four players the A’s acquired in the trade that sent Jeff Samardzija to the ChiSox, but he showed very little at the plate in 2016 despite spending the year in the hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League. In 416 trips to the plate, Ravelo batted .262/.334/.395 with eight homers and 23 doubles. Ravelo lost his 40-man spot over the winter when Oakland signed Matt Joyce to a two-year contract.
  • Eddy also tweets that the Dodgers have released 2013 first-rounder Chris Anderson. The right-hander had a strong run in the Class-A Midwest League after being selected 18th overall back in ’13, but he struggled in each of the next two seasons and was shifted to the bullpen last year. In 67 1/3 innings between the Dodgers’ Class-A Advanced and Double-A affiliates, Anderson logged a disappointing 4.81 ERA with a troubling 51-to-46 K/BB ratio. His control worsened in the Arizona Fall League, where he was rocked for 22 earned runs on 28 hits and 12 walks with 11 strikeouts in 16 2/3 frames.
  • Another former top pick, White Sox outfielder Keenyn Walker (No. 47 overall in 2011), was also released recently, according to Eddy (Twitter link). Now 26 years of age, Walker never climbed beyond the Double-A level in parts of six seasons in the White Sox organization. Last year, he slashed .240/.330/.340 in 374 plate appearances with Double-A Birmingham, and he’s a career .206/.303/.283 hitter at that level.
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Athletics Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers New York Mets Transactions Chris Anderson Josh Rodriguez Rangel Ravelo

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Junior Guerra Out At Least Six Weeks With Strained Calf

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 4:15pm CDT

4:15pm: Brewers manager Craig Counsell offered a more pessimistic timeline, tweets MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. The Milwaukee skipper said that Guerra will miss a minimum of six weeks and added that Guerra’s calf injury is “significant.” Left-hander Tommy Milone will step into the rotation and start in Guerra’s place on Saturday.

April 4, 3:48pm: Guerra tells Todd Rosiak of the Journal-Sentinel the early prognosis following an MRI calls for an absence of four to six weeks (Twitter link).

April 3: Brewers righty Junior Guerra exited his Opening Day start after suffering a right calf strain running the bases, as Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reports (links to Twitter). He will require a stint on the 10-day DL.

It’s not yet clear how severe the injury is, but manager Craig Counsell indicated that he’ll need more than the minimum time away, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets, the skipper says. Indeed, Guerra required crutches after undergoing his preliminary testing and treatment.

Even if it’s a relatively mild injury, it would be impossible to guess at the duration of Guerra’s absence. Milwaukee will surely exercise caution in bringing him back, and the timeline will no doubt be dictated by how he feels. Depending upon how well Guerra is able to maintain his arm strength while the calf heels, he may also require a rehab stint.

All said, there’s little in the way of long-term concern here, but it’s obviously disappointing to lose an Opening Day starter on the first game of the season. Guerra will remain one of the game’s most interest players to watch upon his return, when he’ll seek to continue the form that allowed him to compile 121 2/3 innings of 2.81 ERA ball last year as a 31-year-old rookie.

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Milwaukee Brewers Newsstand Junior Guerra

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Seth Lugo Diagnosed With Slight UCL Tear

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 3:25pm CDT

3:25pm: The Mets have issued a statement on Lugo’s injury, noting that he will be shut down for the next two weeks before beginning a throwing program. “Surgical repair of the UCL is still a possibility, depending on the results of the PRP, rest and throwing program,” the Mets add at the conclusion of the release.

11:39am: Mets righty Seth Lugo has been diagnosed with a “slight” tear in the ulnar collateral ligament of his pitching elbow, according to Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter). He is, however, not expected to require surgery. Instead, the current plan calls for a platelet-rich plasma injection followed by rest.

While a more significant tear to the UCL would obviously represent much worse news, it’s still a major loss for the Mets. Lugo had figured to represent a top-quality swingman after his excellent work in 2016. Instead, he’ll join Steven Matz on the shelf for at least a significant chunk of the season’s first half.

Lugo, 27, had gone largely without note until breaking through to the majors last year. He ended up providing 64 innings of 2.67 ERA pitching in 17 appearances — eight of them starts — while allowing just 49 base hits to go with 6.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. Despite allowing hard contact at a 38.4% clip, Lugo managed to hold opposing hitters to a .230 batting average on balls in play.

Whether Lugo’s 2016 success is sustainable remains to be seen, but the Mets had hoped to find out by having him on hand to help out. Particularly with Matz also battling injury issues, the club’s depth has taken a hit early on.

Obviously, any UCL injury immediately raises the specter of a Tommy John procedure, but that’s not always the case. For one thing, many pitchers rest and then pitch through sprains (which are themselves slight tears). For another, there are a variety of alternative treatments and procedures currently rising in popularity. Given the preliminary diagnosis that has been reported thus far, it’s impossible to know how long Lugo might be sidelined.

It’s worth noting, too, that it’s not clear whether Lugo has actually suffered a recent injury. As James Wagner of the New York Times notes (Twitter links), it hasn’t yet been determined (if it’s possible to at all) whether Lugo has simply experienced inflammation from a preexisting issue. While the distinction may not matter much for his rehab course, it could conceivably change the way the medical staff assesses his susceptibility to further injury moving forward.

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New York Mets Newsstand Seth Lugo

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Mariners Claim Evan Marshall; Drew Smyly To 60-Day DL

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 2:50pm CDT

The Mariners have claimed righty Evan Marshall off waivers from the Diamondbacks, per an announcement. Seattle has shifted lefty Drew Smyly to the 60-day DL to clear a roster spot.

Marshall, 26, was designated recently by the Snakes. Though he showed plenty of promise in his 2014 MLB debut year, Marshall has not been nearly as effective since. Last year, he was knocked around in 15 major league appearances and managed only a 4.59 ERA in his 33 1/3 Triple-A frames.

As for Smyly, the move likely doesn’t impact his timeline. A flexor strain was already slated to cost him six to eight weeks, and any length of rehab assignment would have extended that figure. While awaiting his return, the M’s will put his 40-man spot to use to ensure there’s adequate pitching depth on hand.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Seattle Mariners Transactions Drew Smyly Evan Marshall

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | April 4, 2017 at 2:04pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of today’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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MLBTR Chats

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Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

By charliewilmoth | April 4, 2017 at 1:06pm CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

Mike Trout continues to lead a team in transition as the Angels attempt to regroup following an injury-marred 2016 campaign.

Major League Signings

  • Luis Valbuena, 3B: two years, $15MM plus mutual option for 2019
  • Jesse Chavez, RHP: one year, $5.75MM plus incentives
  • Ben Revere, OF: one year, $4MM plus incentives
  • Andrew Bailey, RHP (re-signed): one year, $1M plus incentives
  • Total spend: $25.75MM

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired OF Cameron Maybin from Tigers for RHP Victor Alcantara
  • Acquired 2B Danny Espinosa from Nationals for RHP Austin Adams and RHP Kyle McGowin
  • Acquired C Martin Maldonado and RHP Drew Gagnon for C Jett Bandy
  • Acquired RHP Austin Adams from Indians for cash (this player is a different right-handed pitcher named Austin Adams than the one the Angels dealt in the Espinosa trade)
  • Acquired RHP Brooks Pounders from Royals for RHP Jared Ruxer
  • Claimed RHP Kirby Yates from Yankees (later designated for assignment)
  • Claimed RHP Blake Parker from Yankees; the Angels later lost Parker on waivers to the Brewers, but claimed him again later in the offseason and then outrighted him
  • Claimed RHP Abel De Los Santos from Reds (later outrighted)
  • Claimed RHP Vicente Campos from Diamondbacks
  • Claimed SS Nolan Fontana from Astros
  • Lost C Juan Graterol on waivers to Reds; the Angels later claimed Graterol from the Diamondbacks, but ultimately lost him on waivers to the Blue Jays
  • Lost RHP Ashur Tolliver on waivers to Astros
  • Acquired RHP Justin Haley in the Rule 5 Draft and traded him to the Padres for cash

Notable Minor League Signings

Yusmeiro Petit, Bud Norris, John Lamb, Dustin Ackley, Eric Young Jr., Ryan LaMarre, Tony Sanchez

Extensions

  • Kole Calhoun, OF: three years, $26MM plus club option for 2020

Contract Options

  • Yunel Escobar, IF: $7MM or $1M buyout (exercised)

Notable Losses

Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson, Bandy, Geovany Soto, Jhoulys Chacin, Johnny Giavotella, Gregorio Petit, Rafael Ortega, Tim Lincecum, Ji-Man Choi, A.J. Achter

Needs Addressed

In his second offseason with the Angels, GM Billy Eppler completed transactions at a furious pace. Many of them were much ado about little, as you might infer from the list above — the series of moves involving Blake Parker and Juan Graterol are telling, as is the fact that Eppler made trades involving two separate pitchers named Austin Adams. Gone were the Albert Pujols-type big splashes that defined previous Angels offseasons, despite the salary-clearing departures this winter of former star pitchers C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver. That isn’t to say, though, that Eppler didn’t take serious steps to improve his club. It’s more that his team had so many glaring holes that he had to make a number of small moves rather than one or two big ones.

The Angels’ first big offseason transaction helped define how the rest of their winter would go. The team entered the offseason needing to upgrade in their rotation and outfield, and at catcher and second base. Of those positions, the one that boasted the most free-agent talent was outfield, where Yoenis Cespedes, Dexter Fowler, Jose Bautista, Ian Desmond, Josh Reddick, Carlos Gomez, Michael Saunders and many others were available.

Cameron MaybinRather than pursue any of those players, the Angels quickly traded for Cameron Maybin from the Tigers. The cost was minimal — the Angels gave up only Victor Alcantara, a hard-throwing but raw righty who probably profiles as a reliever in the long term.

Maybin looks like a bargain at the price of his $9MM option, which the Angels immediately exercised after trading for him — he batted .315/.383/.418 in 2016, a slash line that would fit well in just about any lineup. Beneath the surface, though, lies a .383 BABIP, a number that seems virtually certain to fall dramatically in 2017. Also, Maybin’s center field defense has declined as he’s aged. Defensively, he should be fine in left, where the Angels plan to use him, but his ground-ball-heavy offensive game seems unlikely to produce the power typically associated with that position.

The Angels also added Ben Revere, who provides Maybin with a left-handed complement and the Angels with some speed off the bench. Revere, alas, batted .217/.260/.300 for the Nationals last year. Revere’s own .234 BABIP looks ripe for positive regression, particularly as he’s recovered from an oblique injury that hindered him in 2016. Revere is also just 28 and would appear to be a useful bench player at the very least, particularly given his baserunning ability.

Revere has even less power than Maybin, though, and it’s hard to shake the impression the Angels missed an opportunity to add a middle-of-the-lineup bat, particularly given the way the offseason unfolded. They might well have been able to land a more potentially impactful player, or perhaps even two — Eric Thames, Steve Pearce, Matt Joyce and Saunders all come to mind — had they not acted so quickly to add Maybin, who ZiPS and Steamer both project will produce less than a win above replacement this year. There’s a bit of 20/20 hindsight involved in that assessment, but perhaps it should have been clear from the beginning there was plenty of talent available.

The Angels also acted decisively to upgrade their infield, seemingly killing one bird with two stones by acquiring both Danny Espinosa and Luis Valbuena. The Angels pounced after the Nationals’ acquisition of Adam Eaton relegated Espinosa to a bench role, and Espinosa subsequently expressed unhappiness with the situation. The Angels sent two fringe pitching prospects to Washington, and settled with Espinosa for $5.425MM for his final season before he becomes eligible for free agency. Espinosa’s offensive profile is unusual for a middle infielder — he hit 24 home runs last season, but struck out 29% of the time, leading to a .209 batting average that doesn’t figure to improve much in 2017. His defensive value still makes him a credible starter, albeit a below-average one; it’s no accident that the Nationals, a contending team, saw him as a bench piece.

Luis ValbuenaValbuena has primarily played third in the past several seasons, but with Espinosa at the keystone and Escobar at the hot corner, Valbuena will also likely play plenty of first base. Incumbent first baseman C.J. Cron is a righty and Valbuena is a lefty, but the pair will form somewhat of an odd semi-platoon, since Cron has batted a helpful .273/.317/.473 against righties in his short career (demonstrating reverse platoon splits that admittedly might well regress somewhat). Pujols had foot surgery in December that was set to sideline him for several months; although he now appears ready to go, that might have been a factor in the Angels’ pursuit of extra help for first base, since Cron could theoretically have replaced Pujols at DH with Valbuena playing first. And if Valbuena bats .260/.357/.459, as he did in 2016, his bat will play at any position.

Some negative regression seems likely there too, however, since 2016 was Valbuena’s best career offensive season. And chunk of Valbeuna’s value in past years has come from his ability to play a tougher spot on the diamond. As with the outfield, there were plenty of first basemen available on the free agent market, so there shouldn’t have been much need to pay $15MM to turn a good third baseman into one –although, of course, there’s something to be said for Valbuena’s versatility. Anyway, the Angels’ seeming infield logjam won’t be an issue for awhile, since Valbuena will miss the first month or so of the season after injuring his hamstring.

More analysis after the break …Read more

The Angels also got a short-term upgrade at catcher, acquiring Martin Maldonado and a depth pitching prospect from the Brewers for Jett Bandy. Maldonado served as Jonathan Lucroy’s longtime backup, and with a career .217 average, he won’t be mistaken for a superstar anytime soon. He draws walks and has a bit of pop, though, and he’s an above-average defender and framer, so he’s worthy of a bit more attention than he got in Milwaukee. Bandy is younger than Maldonado but doesn’t project as a superstar himself, so the Angels were justified in taking what looks like a slight long-term hit to get a bit better in the short term.

The Angels also addressed their rotation by signing Jesse Chavez to a cheap one-year deal in November. Chavez relieved in 2016 but was perfectly useful as a starter for the two previous seasons, and with his consistently palatable peripherals, there’s no reason he can’t be again. He’ll never be mistaken for an ace, but for $5.75MM, he’s a bargain. Unlike with the outfield or first base, there weren’t many high-caliber starters available, so it made sense for the Angels to strike quickly. Chavez made the Angels’ rotation, with another versatile arm, minor-league signee Yusmeiro Petit, available in case another spot opens.

The Angels also re-signed Andrew Bailey to a very cheap one-year deal. The oft-injured former Athletics closer didn’t post good overall numbers in 2016, although he pitched well down the stretch after the Angels signed him in August. Cam Bedrosian figures to get most (although perhaps not all) of the Angels’ save opportunities, but the Angels will still lean on Bailey in some capacity this season.

Questions Remaining

The Angels opted more for quantity than quality this winter, from many of the aforementioned acquisitions all the way down to more minor transactions involving potential relief arms like Austin Adams (the former Indian, not the pitcher sent to Washington in the Espinosa deal), Brooks Pounders, Kirby Yates and Blake Parker. The elephant in the room here is the Angels’ lack of minor-league depth, a problem that precedes Eppler’s arrival as GM. Eppler needed to pursue depth this offseason due to the unlikelihood that their farm system would provide it.

Last season, when their rotation suffered a rash of injuries, the Halos were forced to call upon questionable options like Lincecum, Brett Oberholtzer, Daniel Wright and David Huff, and they had to continue to turn to Weaver despite his fading velocity and effectiveness. In the end, the Angels’ rotation finished with just 5.6 fWAR, topping only the Braves and Reds.

This year, the Angels will lean on some of the same pitchers who were shelved last year, including Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, to help revive their rotation. That’s exactly the route they should take, but it’s not without risks. Richards was diagnosed with a torn right UCL last year and missed the rest of the season even though he avoided Tommy John surgery; he’s made three appearances in Spring Training, allowing six runs. Skaggs returned from Tommy John last year but had shoulder and elbow issues before the year ended. He’s had mild shoulder problems already this spring. Another of the Angels’ top starters, Andrew Heaney, had Tommy John surgery in the middle of last season and isn’t expected to pitch this year.

If the Angels’ starters can’t hold up, their bullpen might not save them. Bedrosian should be more than capable in the closer’s role, but former closers Bailey and Huston Street (who’s currently on the DL with a lat strain anyway) are questionable late-inning options at this point, and the composition of the Angels’ bullpen seems fluid beyond those three, lefty Jose Alvarez, and Petit. Bud Norris, one of the organization’s minor-league signees, took one of the other spots, giving the Angels a variety of arms capable of pitching multiple innings, even if they might be of questionable quality. They can use the extra bullpen flexibility, given their starters’ recent health troubles.

Deal Of Note

Kole CalhounIn January, the Angels signed Kole Calhoun to a three-year extension with a team option. The deal guarantees Calhoun $26MM, including $6MM in 2017 (replacing a $6.35MM deal to which he’d already agreed), $8.5MM in 2018 and $10.5MM in 2019, with a $1M buyout on the option, which is priced at $14MM.

The Angels get a slight discount on the likely cost of Calhoun’s last three seasons of arbitration eligibility (he was in his second year of arbitration as a Super Two) and gain the ability to control Calhoun’s first free-agent season, and at a price less than the likely cost of a qualifying offer. In exchange, Calhoun receives a relatively large upfront commitment.

The Angels might well be paying for the beginning of Calhoun’s decline, since he’s already 29. Given the salaries he likely would have received in arbitration (which, barring a complete collapse or a catastrophic injury, almost certainly would have exceeded the $19MM he’ll receive now in 2018 and 2019), though, that probably doesn’t matter. Calhoun was worth a full 4.0 fWAR last season, and his well-rounded game figures to age fairly well even if his solid defense declines a bit over the course of the contract. The option season could end up being a bargain, and it might also provide the Angels with a bit of flexibility as they attempt to assemble their next consistently contending team. The extension should also make Calhoun more valuable should the Angels attempt to trade him at some point.

Overview

As dubious as the Angels’ pitching staff might be, a team headed by Trout, Calhoun, Bedrosian, dazzling defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons and rotation anchor Matt Shoemaker can’t be that bad. If the Angels stay healthy and get good seasons from players who face aging or health questions, such as Pujols, Richards and Skaggs, they could potentially contend. If not, their fine collection of top-tier players will at least make them fun to watch, and Eppler can continue to remake their farm system. Down the line, a full rebuild is a possibility, but it would probably be premature right now, since most of the Angels’ best players are under team control for at least three more seasons.

How would you rate the Angels’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)

 
How would you grade the Angels' offseason?
B 44.53% (289 votes)
C 28.97% (188 votes)
D 10.63% (69 votes)
A 9.09% (59 votes)
F 6.78% (44 votes)
Total Votes: 649
Photos courtesy USA Today Sports Images.
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2016-17 Offseason In Review Los Angeles Angels MLBTR Originals

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Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

By Jeff Todd | April 4, 2017 at 11:27am CDT

This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.

The Phillies’ front office, which continues to chart a steady rebuilding course, added short-term veterans to supplement a group of young talent that is steadily matriculating to the majors.

Major League Signings

  • Jeremy Hellickson, SP: one year, $17.2MM (accepted qualifying offer)
  • Michael Saunders, OF: one year, $9MM (includes $1MM buyout on $11MM club option)
  • Joaquin Benoit, RP: one year, $7.5MM
  • Andres Blanco, IF: one year, $3MM
  • Total spend: $36.7MM.

Trades And Claims

  • Acquired SP Clay Buchholz from Red Sox in exchange for 2B Josh Tobias
  • Acquired 2B/OF Howie Kendrick from Dodgers in exchange for 1B/OF Darin Ruf, 2B/OF Darnell Sweeney
  • Acquired RP Pat Neshek from Astros in exchange for cash/PTBNL (exercised $6MM club option)
  • Acquired RP Pat Venditte from Mariners for OF Joey Curletta
  • Acquired RP Mario Sanchez from Nationals as PTBNL in exchange for RP Jimmy Cordero
  • Claimed RP David Rollins from Rangers (later lost via waiver claim)
  • Claimed 3B Richie Shaffer from Mariners (later lost via waiver claim)

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Pedro Beato, Sean Burnett (released), Chris Coghlan (released), Pedro Florimon, Hector Gomez, Ryan Hanigan (released), Bryan Holoday (released), Daniel Nava, Cesar Ramos

Extensions

  • Odubel Herrera, OF: five years, $30.5MM (includes 2022 & 2023 club options)

Notable Losses

  • Cody Asche (non-tendered), Peter Bourjos, A.J. Ellis, Matt Harrison (still owed $15MM), David Hernandez, Ryan Howard (declined club option), Charlie Morton (declined mutual option), Ruf

Phillies Roster; Phillies Payroll Information

Needs Addressed

With Ryan Howard’s departure, the Phillies have fully shed the stars that made up the organization’s most recent contending roster — with their salaries also now departing the payroll. Philadelphia is now building a new core, and just made the first long-term commitment to one of those pieces.

If you look at the Phillies’ future balance sheet, there’s just one name on it: Odubel Herrera, the former Rule 5 pick who is now controlled through 2023 after striking an extension over the winter. We’ll have more on that move below, in the “deal of note” section.

Interestingly, that was really the only significant forward-looking move the Phils made over the winter. There was some trade chatter, mostly surrounding second baseman Cesar Hernandez, but there was no urgency to deal him with three years of arbitration control remaining. And the Phils were never rumored to be chasing any controllable major leaguers.

Instead, the club seems content to nurture its existing group of young talent while continuing to build through the draft. But that’s not to say that GM Matt Klentak and company sat on their hands all winter. With massive spending capacity and a new TV contract, the plan called for some fairly significant investments in the 2017 roster — none of which, notably, will impact the future payroll.

That $36.7MM total spending figure listed above is a bit misleading. In addition to its free-agent commitments, Philadelphia struck three separate trades that essentially functioned the same way. The team gave up little in the way of players, but took on $30MM in salary. Combined with the open-market moves, two-thirds of Philly’s approximately $100MM Opening Day payroll comes from newly-added veterans.

So, what did they get for their money? There was no singular focus akin to the Braves’ and Padres’ rotation overhauls. Instead, the Phillies splashed veterans across the roster.

The rotation features some appealing young talent, though the Phillies obviously hoped to relieve the pressure on the arms that will be needed for the long haul. Jeremy Hellickson represented the first major addition when he somewhat surprisingly accepted the qualifying offer issued by the club. While the Phils surely would have been happy to recoup a draft pick, it’s hardly the worst result given the strategy. That said, if the club hopes to cash in on its thus-far worthwhile investment in Hellickson, it’ll need to deal him at the deadline; under the new rules, he’s not eligible for another QO.

Jeremy Hellickson

Despite the return of Hellickson, the Phillies elected to add Clay Buchholz to a staff that’ll also feature Aaron Nola, Vince Velasquez, and Jerad Eickhoff. There were alternatives to adding another veteran — Jake Thompson reached the majors last year and several 40-man members are throwing at Triple-A — but Philadelphia elected to take on Buchholz in hopes of a resurgence. If he can carry forward his strong work late in 2016 (2.86 ERA over his final 44 innings), then the Phillies can shop him over the summer or perhaps make a qualifying offer at season’s end.

The bullpen saw additions, too, with Pat Neshek coming via trade and Joaquin Benoit arriving from the open market. These elder statesmen both had promising results last year, but also come with questions. Neshek carried a 3.06 ERA while allowing less than one baserunner per inning through his typical blend of few walks and weak contact. But his success was driven by a BABIP-against mark (.216) that was even lower than usual (.236 career), and he was bombed when allowed to face lefties (.240/.321/.646 and ten home runs in just 55 plate appearances). Benoit, meanwhile, allowed just one earned run on 17 hits in his 23 2/3 innings with the Blue Jays, but had struggled with his control and long ball susceptibility over the first half of the season with the Mariners.

With the infield accounted for, Klentak and his charges turned to addressing an outfield that had received meager contributions from the corners in 2016. The first move, acquiring Howie Kendrick, may have been made in part to provide cover in the event that a deal was struck involving Hernandez. But the former second baseman was always penciled in to play left, and that’s where he’ll open the season. A paragon of consistency at the plate for the bulk of his career, Kendrick fell off last season and ended up hitting just .255/.326/.366 — though he did substantially increase his walk rate. While there’s not much upside to him as a left fielder, Kendrick at least represents a sturdy veteran who’ll plug a hole.

Next, the Phils staked a more interesting bet on Michael Saunders, whose deal includes an option for 2018. The 30-year-old was finally healthy and productive last year, though he faded badly after an outstanding start. Still, the overall results — .253/.338/.478 with 24 home runs over 558 plate appearances — were quite good, and Philadelphia would no doubt be pleased with a repeat performance.

That slate of moves was accompanied by the re-signing of veteran infielder Andres Blanco, who has been a handy member of the bench for the past two seasons.

Read more analysis below …

Read more

Questions Remaining

The immediate needs were filled with the offseason shopping, but that doesn’t mean this is a complete roster. While the Phillies surely aren’t mailing it in, it still seems more likely they’ll end up with a top-ten draft pick than a .500 or better record.

In the rotation, there are both upside and downside cases for Hellickson and Buchholz. The same holds, in different ways, for the younger arms. Velasquez and especially Nola had some elbow problems last year while also battling inconsistency. Eickhoff, meanwhile, will need to manage the long ball to reach his potential.

The bullpen has an interesting mix of the above-mentioned veterans and live-armed youngsters. Hector Neris leads that group, with Edubray Ramos and southpaw Joely Rodriguez also on hand. There’s some boom and bust here, clearly, which is all the more interesting given the ongoing questions with regard to the closer’s role. Jeanmar Gomez earned a big arb salary after taking the job last year, but ended the year with a 4.85 ERA and uninspiring peripherals. He’ll be hard-pressed to keep the job; if he can’t, it’ll be interesting to see whether Neris or one of the experienced late-inning hurlers is next in line.

In the infield, shortstop Freddy Galvis has morphed into something of a Danny Espinosa clone, with a sudden power surge, good speed, and excellent glovework offset by an abysmal on-base percentage. He still seems to be a placeholder for prospect J.P. Crawford, who’ll look to gain traction at Triple-A before making the leap to the majors. Hernandez was the team’s true breakout performer in 2016, slashing .294/.371/.393 with 17 steals and a well-reviewed fielding performance at second. Whether he can repeat remains to be seen. Both Galvis and Hernandez could conceivably become trade pieces at the deadline, or the latter could be approached about an extension.

There’s more of a future-oriented tone at the corners. Maikel Franco failed to follow up on his stellar 2015 season, but hit 25 homers and obviously has the talent to become a cornerstone player. The Phils will be watching his development closely. Across the way, Tommy Joseph — the former top catching prospect who was forced out from behind the dish due to concussions — turned in a surprisingly promising year in 2016. He did enough to deserve a full crack at the job with a .248 ISO and 21 homers in 347 plate appearances, though he’ll need to maintain that power and boost his on-base percentage (.308 on a 6.3% walk rate and .267 BABIP) to lay claim to first base for the long term. Joseph also showed fairly significant platoon splits — he hit for power but didn’t reach base as often against righties — so lefty hitting reserves Daniel Nava and Brock Stassi could spell him at times.

Things get even more interesting behind the plate, where Cameron Rupp is seeking to stake his own claim to being a future piece. He slashed a surprising .252/.303/.447 with 16 bombs, representing plenty of lumber for a backstop. Rupp has some prospects nipping at his heels, though. Jorge Alfaro reached the majors last year, while Andrew Knapp has earned the second-catcher job to open the year. There could be quite a bit of intrigue at the catching position for the Phillies if all three of these players pan out, though it’s also quite possible there’ll be some growing pains in the short run.

That brings us to the outfield. The corner spots could either be a source of stability or see quite a lot of change. There’s no doubting that Kendrick and Saunders will see the bulk of the action to open the year, but that’s subject to change. Injury, ineffectiveness, or summer trade chatter could help lead to movement, though perhaps the biggest driver will be the performances of the Phillies’ next wave of outfield talent. Roman Quinn, Nick Williams, and Dylan Cozens could all push for a promotion at some point during the season to come.

Deal Of Note

If there’s a single position on the Phillies’ roster that’s not in question, it’s center field. That’s now the domain of Odubel Herrera, who is one of the game’s more interesting players.

Aug 19, 2016; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia Phillies center fielder Odubel Herrera (37) before action against the St. Louis Cardinals at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Herrera more than made good on his Rule 5 status, taking the regular job in center and running with it. He just turned 25 and has turned in consecutive seasons of 111 OPS+ hitting — making him a ~4-WAR player with the good baserunning and fielding metrics he has compiled.

What’s so intriguing about Herrera isn’t just that he was able to leap to the majors, but that he has changed since his arrival. His debut season was plenty promising, though a .387 BABIP left some question as to whether he’ be able to keep pace with the bat. Herrera responded by maturing at the plate, nearly doubling his walk rate (to 9.6%) and shaving nearly four points off his strikeout rate (to 20.4%) even while boosting his power to respectable levels (15 home runs, .134 ISO).

Though he did struggle in the second half — most worryingly, he reverted toward his prior K/BB rates — there’s enough evidence to think that Herrera may have more in the tank as a hitter. Even if that doesn’t make it reasonable to expect him to increase his output substantially, perhaps it provides reason to hope that he can actually remain a reasonably above-average hitter.

All said, it’s a sensible investment for the Phils, who can afford to wait to commit but could also afford to stomach a mistake. Even in a downside scenario, Herrera would seem likely to be a strong fourth outfielder, though of course the club has reason to expect quite a bit more.

With Herrera now taking his place on the accounting books, it’ll be interesting to see who’s next. Philadelphia will no doubt be assessing this season just who ought to receive such a commitment. And that, in turn, will guide not only possible extension talks, but also the player acquisition strategy pursued next winter.

Overview

The Phillies are committed to improving the on-field product without hampering their future spending ability. And they are trying to avoid the kind of multi-year austerity plan that would drive away fans while improving draft position. That approach may simply be a luxury available to a bigger-market rebuilder, but there’s also an argument to be made that an even more dramatic approach could or should have been tried. It’ll be years before we can fully assess, but the upcoming season will begin to show some of the returns not only for the Phillies, but also for a variety of other teams on the same general path (such as the Braves, Padres, and Brewers).

What’s your take on the Phillies’ winter? (Link to poll for mobile app users …)

How would you grade the Phillies' winter?
B 58.44% (706 votes)
C 19.21% (232 votes)
A 18.13% (219 votes)
D 3.15% (38 votes)
F 1.08% (13 votes)
Total Votes: 1,208

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason In Review MLBTR Originals Philadelphia Phillies Uncategorized

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The Inner Monologue of @DimTillard Opening Day

By Tim Dillard | April 4, 2017 at 9:36am CDT

It’s 8:33pm on Monday April 3rd, 2017.  (That’s right, it’s 2017 and Mattel still hasn’t delivered on a real Hoverboard)  Anyway, the past 3 nights I’ve slept in 3 different hotels in 3 different cities in 3 different states.  My schedule has been a little sporadic, so I thought I’d slow things down and type some thoughts for an hour… or at least until the NyQuil does its thing.

8:37pm  First off, I’d just like to congratulate all MLB and MiLB players who made an Opening Day roster somewhere!  It’s a very special accomplishment, and shouldn’t be taken for granted.  And it also means that, after waking up at 5am in spring training for the last 6 weeks … you are now allowed to sleep till noon and go to bed at midnight!

8:41pm  Oh yeah, my name is Tim Dillard.  And this is the third time logging my Inner Monologue for MLB Trade Rumors.  (Part 1 and Part 2)  I’m currently watching Opening Day baseball in a hotel in Colorado Springs, Colorado.  And I am proud to be on a professional Minor League baseball roster for my 15th season!

8:43pm  Making an Opening Day roster anywhere is the equivalent to winning an award!  It’s like the end of Star Wars, where Han Solo and Luke Skywalker are awarded medals!  The few years I didn’t make an Opening Day roster, I felt a bit more like Chewbacca… who was there and did stuff, but didn’t get a medal. *insert pity party emoji

8:45pm  I should really stop using Star Wars analogies though.  Cause one time… I had a former friend tell me he didn’t like Star Wars.

8:48pm  Just heard a lady swearing out in the hallway!  Sounds like she’s upset that her key card doesn’t work.  That’s true.  That can be frustrating.  When you check into a hotel, go up the elevator, drag luggage down the hall, find your room, and the key doesn’t work!  #$%^>*&@!

8:50pm  Last week I was the odd man out, and played catch with a pitching coach.  He looked a little frustrated with me, as I “nonchalantly” tried to make EVERY throw extra hard and extra awesome!  I over-do-it throwing with members of the coaching staff for 2 reasons:  First, I’m always looking for an opportunity to try and impress the coaches… and I forgot the other reason.

8:55pm  The NyQuil may be preparing its magic, so I better type fast.

8:56pm  The other day I was fortunate enough to be in Milwaukee to help back up the Brewers for their Exhibition Games before Opening Day!  I didn’t get to pitch, but got to soak up several memorable moments!

8:59pm  One of the moments was just putting on a Big League Brewers uniform in that clubhouse!  Something I haven’t done since July 2012!  I began thinking of all the mounds I’ve pitched on, and all the places I’ve been between then and now.  Very special.

9:01pm  The other moment was something I had never experienced before!  After the last Exhibition Game concluded, there was NEARLY zero time to catch my return flight back to the Minor Leagues.  So let’s just say, that the person next to me on the 3 and a half hour plane flight could smell a combination of Dubble Bubble and Flexall.  Aaaaannd that’s the first time in my career I’ve played a baseball game in one state, and showered in another.

9:07pm  Speaking of interesting flights, this past December I was on a plane with PGA golfer Jordan Spieth!  Yeah I don’t watch golf, but somebody told me it was him.  And that he was famous!  So naturally I consulted google after we landed.  But it was interesting because, right after I googled him… I looked up, and saw Jordan Spieth looking at me and typing on his phone.  Kinda got the feeling he was googling ME.

9:13pm  Anyway sorry to name-drop.  Not sure why I shared that story.  I really don’t like name-dropping that much.  In fact, I was talking about that with Ryan Braun last week.

9:15pm  Also last week, I made some Latin music videos for Twitter and Instagram.  It was fun.  But the response I got was incredible!  Venezuela, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Panama, even Telemundo in Milwaukee!  It’s like no one’s ever seen a gringo perfectly lip-syncing Spanish mega-ballads before!  But yes for the record… no habla español.

9:18pm  But I did buy Rosetta Stone before I flew to Mexico to play baseball in spring 2013!  Only to give up after it constantly taught me how to ask about the current state of the foresting industry in Chile.

9:24pm  Hold on, I’m reading NyQuil’s side effects.  Interesting.  Along with “constipation” and “diarrhea,” one of the side effects is actually, “trouble sleeping.”  I guess they have to put those on there to make sure they cover all their bases.

9:27pm  Tonight is the Men’s NCAA Basketball Championship!  It’s between team such and such, and team yada yada… actually I don’t really know who’s playing.  My junior college Alma Mater didn’t make the cut this year, so I don’t really care who wins.

9:30pm  Yesterday a teammate asked me how many teams were in the Final Four.  Later he asked me how I’ve managed to play baseball as long as I have.  My answer to both questions was the same: “Listen man, I really need to take a shower.”

9:34pm  This is my 2nd night in Colorado Springs.  And after all my recent hard work and exercise in Arizona… today, I was easily defeated by a flight of stairs.  Adjusting to 6,000 feet above sea level is no joke.  The important thing is to be patient, and wait for the elevator.

To Be Concluded…

Confused? It may or may not help if you read Part I and Part II.

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MLBTR Originals Player's Perspective Tim Dillard

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