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Marlins Sign Edinson Volquez

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Adding rotation depth has been a known priority for the Marlins this offseason, and on Thursday they announced the signing of one of the most durable arms on the free agent market, Edinson Volquez, to a two-year deal. Volquez, a Wasserman client, will reportedly receive a $22MM guarantee — $9MM in 2017 and $13MM in 2018 — with his new team.

Edinson Volquez

Volquez hit the open market when he declined his end of a $10MM mutual option with the Royals. Reports had at various times suggested that Kansas City might make him a $17.2MM qualifying offer, and alternatively that they’d pay a $3MM buyout rather than picking up their side of the option. Neither of those outcomes came to pass, however, as Volquez saw better opportunities on the open market.

[RELATED: Updated Marlins Depth Chart]

Indeed, he now seems justified in his confidence. With Jeremy Hellickson taking a QO to stay with the Phillies, especially, the market was starved for innings. That set the stage for another solid payday for Volquez, who’ll earn slightly more this time around than he did in his prior two-year pact with the Royals (in which he was promised $20MM, though he forewent the final $3MM of that.)

The 33-year-old Volquez didn’t turn in a terribly productive 2016 season, as he ended up with a 5.37 ERA after struggling through the final four months of the year. But he did rack up 189 1/3 innings and made more than thirty starts for the fifth consecutive campaign.

Durability was clearly the biggest feather in Volquez’s oft-changing hat. He has provided an average of 187 frames annually to the Padres, Dodgers, Pirates, and Royals since the start of 2012. Despite nearing his mid-thirties, the Dominican native has also continued to show good velocity, averaging better than 93 mph with his fastball last year.

While the overall platform campaign was hardly promising, Volquez did largely maintain his typical peripherals. He doesn’t strike out batters at the same pace he did earlier in his career, but with 6.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 he managed about the same results in the strikeout and walk departments as he did in the prior two seasons, when he carried a cumulative 3.30 ERA. And Volquez continues to generate groundballs at a solid rate, inducing grounders on 51.2% of the balls put in play against him in 2016.

For Miami, adding useful innings was a key pursuit this winter. Volquez certainly meets that need, though it remains to be seen whether the organization will continue to look into higher-upside arms on the trade market. Notably, Marlins pitching guru Jim Benedict was with the Pirates when Volquez put up a strong bounceback year in 2014, so perhaps Miami has reason to believe that pairing will pay dividends.

Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald reported the two-year deal on Twitter, with his colleague Barry Jackson providing financial details (Twitter link). SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweeted that the agreement was in place and added the annual breakdown on Twitter.

Braves Avoid Arbitration With Tuffy Gosewisch

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TODAY: Gosewisch will earn $635K, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. His contract entitled him to either $625K or $100K over the new league-minimum rate, which has been set at $535K.

YESTERDAY: The Braves have struck a deal to avoid arbitration with catcher Tuffy Gosewisch, according to a team announcement. Terms of the deal were not announced; MLBTR projects him to command a $600K salary.

Atlanta just claimed Gosewisch off waivers from the Diamondbacks, suggesting that the team would look to hammer out a deal with him. It remains unclear just what this means for the team’s backstop mix. Tyler Flowers remains on the books and Anthony Recker is also eligible for arbitration.

Gosewisch, 33, has seen time in each of the last four major league campaigns. He has slashed just .199/.237/.286, with five home runs, but he’s obviously regarded as a trustworthy presence behind the plate. It’s fair to note, too, that Gosewisch hit a robust .342/.399/.553 in his 219 Triple-A plate appearances in 2016.

Minor MLB Transactions: 12/1/2016

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Here are some recent minor moves from around the league:

  • The Orioles announced the signing of outfielder Logan Schafer to a minor-league deal. The six-year MLB veteran saw minimal time last year with the Twins. At Triple-A, he batted .272/.342/.382 with six homers and six stolen bases over 317 trips to the plate.
  • The Athletics have added two more players on minors deals, each of which includes a spring camp invite, per MLB.com’s Jane Lee (via Twitter). Catcher Ryan Lavarnway and first baseman Chris Parmelee will join the Oakland organization. Lavarnway, a former top prospect, continues to bounce around. He hit .266/.351/.384 last year with at the highest level of the minors. The 28-year-old Parmelee has seen MLB action in each of the last six seasons, slashing .248/.313/.405. At Triple-A last year in the Yankees organization, he put up a .248/.335/.449 batting line.
  • Outfielder Henry Ramos is headed to the Dodgers on a minor-league pact, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Ramos had spent his entire career in the Red Sox farm system, reaching its highest level last year. Over his 398 plate appearances in the upper minors in 2016, he slashed .263/.306/.402 with eight home runs.
  • The White Sox have added catcher Roberto Pena on a minors deal, Cotillo also tweets. The 24-year-old has long been an Astros’ farmhand since being selected in the seventh round of the 2010 draft out of Puerto Rico. In the upper minors a season ago, he put up a .235/.273/.376 slash.
  • Two pitchers are headed to the Pirates on minor-league contracts, per a club announcement. The Bucs will give a look to lefty Dan Runzler, who last appeared in the bigs in 2012 and put up a 5.82 ERA in 21 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year with the Twins. Also joining the Pittsburgh organization is righty Jason Stoffel, a 28-year-old who has spent plenty of time in the upper minors in recent years but hasn’t cracked the bigs. He recorded an impressive 2.44 ERA with 11.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 59 frames in 2016 in the Orioles organization, splitting his time between Double-A and Triple-A.
  • Though we missed it at the time, it’s worth noting that the Angels reached agreement on a minor-league contract with righty Justin Miller, as Matt Eddy of Baseball America reported. The 29-year-old has thrown 88 1/3 innings over the past three seasons, with a 4.99 ERA that doesn’t inspire much hope. But he turned in a promising 2015 campaign and still managed 9.5 K/9 in his forty appearances last year with the Rockies.

Market Notes: CBA, Astros, Encarnacion, Napoli, Cubs-Sox, Puig, A’s, Greinke, Bucs

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With the CBA now in place, teams and players that were waiting for clarity can move toward new agreements. While plenty of organizations have gone right ahead with their plans, others seemingly have waited. That includes the Yankees (per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag, on Twitter), Nationals (per Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post, on Twitter), and perhaps also the Red Sox (via Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, in a tweet). Whether we’re in for a rush of moves remains to be seen, but the stage is set.

Here’s all the latest chatter on the market:

  • The Astros continue to strive to add another bat, with the team confident it will land either Edwin Encarnacion or Carlos Beltran, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter link). Still, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and a “couple others” remain involved on Encarnacion, Heyman tweets. All three of those teams, along with the Red Sox, are in on Beltran, Nightengale adds on Twitter.
  • Several former employers of first bagger Mike Napoli have interest in a reunion, per Heyman. The Red Sox, Indians, and Rangers are perhaps the three teams most heavily invested in his market. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Astros appear to be involved at the periphery at present.
  • There have been some rumblings of late suggesting that the Cubs and White Sox likely won’t do business with one another this winter, at least not on any significant deals, and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times rounds up the latest. Ultimately, it seems, there’s not much new to chew on here: both teams say they’re open working with one another, even if they acknowledge what GM Jed Hoyer suggests is an unsurprising reality that the clubs are unlikely to to match up on an impactful swap given their market competition.
  • The Dodgers are still open to considering trades involving outfielder Yasiel Puig, Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times recently noted on Twitter. Meanwhile, the Athletics continue to chase a center fielder after signing Matt Joyce, per GM David Forst (via MLB.com’s Jane Lee, on Twitter). It seems that Oakland is considering options via trade and free agency to fill the void up the middle.
  • There’s “minimal trade interest” at present in Diamondbacks righty Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports. His massive contract remains an obvious impediment, though rival execs tells Rosenthal that they don’t believe Arizona can afford to carry that huge commitment. It’s certainly a notable dilemma for the team.
  • The Pirates are looking into the trade market for relief help, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (via Twitter). It’s possible that Pittsburgh could consider moving Tony Watson, who is in his final season of team control and comes with a projected $5.9MM salary. The team does have two other solid pen lefties; while Watson currently profiles as the closer, moreover, there are a variety of potential alternatives on the open market.

Free Agent Profile: Dexter Fowler

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Like a few other free agents, Dexter Fowler finds himself back on the market after failing to land the long-term pact he sought last winter. He can expect to do much better this time around.

Pros/Strengths

Fowler, 30, has never really been thought of as a premium hitter, and in truth he isn’t. But he is a somewhat under-rated, consistently above-average batsman who features a seemingly sustainable skillset at the plate. And he’s coming off of a career year.

Since the start of the 2011 season, Fowler has taken 3,331 plate appearances in the majors. His .271/.371/.428 batting line in that span works out to a 113 OPS+, and he has landed within 13 percentage points of that mark in every one of those seasons. If there was a swing, it may have occurred last year, when he posted a personal-best .276/.393/.447 slash.

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That consistency is reflected all the more in Fowler’s plate discipline. He has struck out at around the league-average rate for his career (22.2%), but drawn quite a few walks (12.6%), and has never wavered much in either regard. Again, last year was arguably his best in this arena, as he walked in a career-best 14.3% of his plate appearances.

Though his power has bounced around somewhat, and his 2016 output was driven in part by a .350 BABIP (not an atypical mark in his case), Fowler’s overall track record with the bat suggests he’s an excellent bet to continue trucking along as a productive hitter. He knows how to take a free pass; his batted-ball profile is remarkably steady; and he’s coming off of a year in which he both chased pitches out of the zone and swung and missed at the lowest rates of his career.

There’s some recent good news on the defensive side, too. Long rated as a below-average performer in center, Fowler drew solidly average marks from both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating in 2016. While nobody will buy into him as a difference-maker up the middle, it’s certainly possible that teams will still believe they can get a few seasons of plausible glovework in center.

Indeed, Fowler has shown no signs of a general drop in athleticism. He has typically drawn strong reviews on the bases, and that was never more true than in 2016. As usual, he wasn’t a huge stolen-base threat — he swiped 13 bags last year — but nevertheless ranked eighth among qualifying hitters in overall baserunning value, by measure of Fangraphs’ BsR.

In the aggregate, Fowler was worth between four and five wins above replacement in 2016, amply justifying his first All-Star selection.

Cons/Weaknesses

Of course, qualifying for the mid-summer classic is driven by first-half production, and Fowler’s power did fall off somewhat down the stretch, as he slugged .408 over his final 61 games. That ties into one of the largest questions facing his free agent case: is he, or is he not, a center fielder capable of delivering average-or-better power for at least a reasonable portion of a new contract?

In terms of pop, Fowler has never been much of a home run threat, and his 13 dingers from a year ago seem to represent a reasonable expectation moving forward. He delivered a .171 isolated slugging mark in 2016, and landed right at league average the prior year (.161), but posted sub-par marks in the two preceding campaigns (.122 in 2014 with the Astros and .145 in 2013 with the Rockies). Any erosion in that arena, or a drop in his lofty career .342 BABIP, could significantly reduce Fowler’s value even if he can largely maintain his healthy walk totals.

That’s all the more relevant given the questions over Fowler’s efficacy up the middle. Both DRS and UZR have largely panned his glovework over his career, excepting 2016. Though he isn’t particularly error-prone, Fowler has typically rated poorly in terms of range and throwing ability. While it’s arguable that he faced tough defensive assignments in Coors Field and Minute Maid Park, there are certainly questions as to whether and how long Fowler can passably roam the middle of the outfield.

If you take the pessimistic view, then, Fowler could be seen as a marginal power source that is limited to left field — a position he has never played in the majors. Plus, there are at least some durability questions. Fowler has never missed huge swaths of time, but has averaged only 131 games annually since breaking in as a regular in 2009. And he has only once topped 600 plate appearances (in 2015, his first year with the Cubs).

An additional factor worth considering is that the switch-hitting Fowler has typically fared better against left-handed pitching, the short side of the platoon split. He has been just fine against righties — compiling a lifetime .255/.356/.413 lifetime batting line — but any drop in overall productivity at the plate could leave him as a sub-optimal roster piece.

Personal

Fowler and his wife, Darya, have one daughter. A Georgia native, Fowler signed with the Rockies out of high school after being taken in the 14th round of the 2004 draft.

Fowler appeared in the 2008 Olympics for the U.S. national team and broke into the majors that same year. He was ultimately dealt to the Astros (in exchange for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes) and then on to the Cubs (for Luis Valbuena and Dan Straily). Fowler reportedly nearly signed with the Orioles last winter before returning to Chicago.

Market

While he comes with draft compensation attached once again, Fowler appears to have a wide array of possible suitors. That likely won’t include the Cubs — even if they aren’t ruling it out — now that the team has added Jon Jay to the fold.

Several organizations are in need of help up the middle, including the Cardinals, Nationals, Rangers, and Indians. Any could make good fits, possibly planning to utilize him in center for part of the deal before eventually shifting him to left. The Mets, too, potentially still have a need in center, though that would be contingent upon a lot of other moving parts with Yoenis Cespedes re-signing.

There are other teams that might like the idea of installing Fowler’s high-OBP bat in the lineup while trying out his glove in left. That Fowler is capable of playing center also makes him a possible part-time option there — a scenario that might make particular sense for the Giants, Mariners, and even the Dodgers, who could spell Denard Span, Leonys Martin, and Joc Pederson (respectively) at least on occasion against left-handed pitching. A similar arrangement could make sense for the Blue Jays, who utilize light-hitting defensive stalwart Kevin Pillar up the middle, though he hits from the right side.

There are a few additional organizations that could conceivably get involved. The Athletics have a hole in center, though Fowler figures to be too expensive; likewise, the White Sox would make sense, but that is heavily dependent upon what course their offseason takes. The Orioles need another corner piece. And the Phillies might still utilize Howie Kendrick at second if they trade Cesar Hernandez.

It is important to bear in mind that there are alternatives, even with Jay somewhat surprisingly snapped up by the Cubs. Several notable players could be had via trade, and the open market still includes Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez as center field options.

Expected Contract

While he is hardly a flawless player, that’s not necessary to strike it rich in free agency. Fowler profiles as a solid regular, and certainly seems to have a better case than did Josh Reddick — who just signed with the Astros for $52MM over four years. We’re predicting a four-year, $64MM contract for Fowler.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Edwin Encarnacion’s Market

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TODAY, 9:13pm: In further comments, Kinzer says that he does not expect a deal to be completed before the Winter Meetings, though he notes that could change if the right offer hits the table. (Via Mark Berman of FOX 26; Twitter links.)

While there has been some internet chatter suggesting that there’s a deal in place with the Astros, Kinzer denies the rumors. As Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweeted, there is nothing in place with Houston. Still, Kinzer does tell Berman that the Astros are a “great fit” from Encarnacion’s perspective, and acknowledges that there is interest from the team.

6:16pm: There’s “nothing imminent” on Encarnacion, Kinzer tells MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (links to Twitter). More than one team is still involved on the veteran slugger, per his agent, with multiple offers on the table.

The Astros and Yankees are believed still to be in the hunt, Morosi adds.

YESTERDAY: Edwin Encarnacion’s free agency may not last much longer, as the slugger’s agent, Paul Kinzer, told TSN’s Rick Westhead today that his client will probably agree to a contract later this week or early next week. Kinzer told Westhead that the Blue Jays remain in the picture and have been “showing Edwin the most love,” though the agent didn’t handicap any one team’s chances of getting a deal done. According to Kinzer, three teams have told him that they’re waiting for the resolution of the collective bargaining negotiations before making a formal offer. He added that two teams have made “serious” offers to Encarnacion already.

[Related: Edwin Encarnacion’s Free Agent Profile]

One team that doesn’t appear to be in the running for Encarnacion is the Red Sox, though, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes that a source has informed him that Boston “probably” won’t be a finalist for Encarnacion’s imposing bat. Boston remains focused on adding a shorter-term option to fill its DH vacancy, according to Bradford.

ESPN’s Buster Olney reported earlier today that the Astros bid big on Yoenis Cespedes before he agreed to return to the Mets, and his colleague, Jerry Crasnick, added that the Astros are still a possible landing spot for Encarnacion (Twitter links). While a big bid on Cespedes doesn’t necessarily indicate that the ’Stros are willing to make a market-beating offer for Encarnacion, their willingness to make a competitive bid for a player that agreed to a $110MM deal does suggest that they can at least afford to make a legitimate play for Encarnacion.

It remains unclear which teams have made the aforementioned serious offers to Encarnacion. The Blue Jays reportedly offered Encarnacion about $80MM over four years earlier this month, but that offer seems light to constitute the “serious” adjective utilized by Kinzer, considering the agent’s previous comments implying that a five-year deal and/or a $25MM annual value both seemed reasonable. Furthermore, Kinzer tells Westhead that he hasn’t talked dollars with Blue Jays brass since that initial proposal. The Yankees have also been connected to Encarnacion on multiple occasions, and the Rangers have reportedly reached out to Kinzer as well, though the extent of Texas’ interest isn’t known at this time.

Encarnacion, like most agents, should be reasonably expected to end up with the highest bidder, but Kinzer did imply that there will be other factors at play when speaking to Westhead. “We won’t put any restrictions on any offer like years or anything,” he explained. “[Encarnacion is] going to decide where he’s comfortable. One of the things we have to look at is the big difference in the tax base between some of the teams that are interested. Plus, there’s a comfort level we need to consider.”

League, Union Nearing CBA Agreement

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There’s said to be progress in collective bargaining talks, as the owners and union strive to reach agreement — or, at least, avoid a work stoppage — with the current CBA set to expire at midnight. As ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports, the league’s ownership has not scheduled a lockout vote, though the owners are on standby in the event that one is required, or if there’s a deal to be confirmed.

Here’s the latest:

  • A deal is close and could be finalized tonight, Rosenthal tweets. The meeting has adjourned with “handshakes all around,” MLB.com’s Richard Justice adds on Twitter.
  • The sides are “close” to hammering out a deal on the luxury tax system, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. That has been seen as one major obstacle. Given the overall movement, whether or not a final agreement is reached tonight, there’s now little chance of a lockout, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • It’s possible, of course, that the sides could simply decide to maintain the status quo while talks wrap up. If they haven’t seen eye to eye on everything, but see a path to a deal, that may well come to pass. In that event, the offseason business of baseball could carry on while the final issues are resolved. A lockout vote would be viewed as a drastic measure — “only if owners felt they were at point of no return” — at this point, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).
  • We’re waiting to learn more on how things could be shaking out, and it seems there’s still quite a bit of variability in what form the qualifying offer system will take. One possibility, Rosenthal says, is that wealthy teams (i.e., those that pay into the revenue-sharing system) could sacrifice some draft position (say, five spots) if they sign a QO-declining free agent. Meanwhile, low-revenue organizations could sign such free agents without penalty. (Twitter links: 1; 2; 3; 4; 5.)
  • Also under consideration, per Rosenthal (via Twitter), are changes to the international signing system. While it seems that a draft is off the table at this point, it’s possible that teams could face a hard cap on total bonus outlays. Presumably, there would also be some increase in the total spending allotment, though that remains unclear.

Astros Avoid Arbitration With Nori Aoki

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The Astros agreed with outfielder Nori Aoki on a $5.5MM deal with him to avoid arbitration, according to Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). MLBTR had projected a $6.8MM salary for the veteran, so this represents a rather notable cost savings for the club.

While Aoki could have justifiably asked for a raise, the alternative was to test the open market. Though it’s possible he could have done as well or better there, he may simply have decided that he liked the price and the fit in Houston.

Soon to turn 35, Aoki was claimed off waivers from the Mariners earlier in the offseason. It wasn’t clear at the time whether the Astros would ultimately tender him a contract; yet more questions were raised when the club went out and added another left-handed-hitting corner outfielder in Josh Reddick.

It seems that Houston still likes the idea of utilizing Aoki in some kind of platoon. Presumably, he’ll share time with Yulieski Gurriel or some other right-handed hitter in left field.

Aoki has typically produced at just above the league-average rate, and that was true again last year in Seattle, as he put up a .283/.349/.388 slash over 467 plate appearances. He doesn’t typically carry platoon splits, and he has struck out in only eight percent of his trips to the plate in his career, making him a reliable — albeit somewhat unexciting — offensive presence.

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