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Scott Kazmir Does Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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Left-hander Scott Kazmir did not opt out of the two years and $32MM remaining on his contract with the Dodgers prior to Saturday’s deadline, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Barring a trade, the 32-year-old will stay with the Dodgers next season.

After a stint in the independent Atlantic League in 2012, the former elite prospect tossed 150-plus frames in each season from 2013-15 and recorded a 3.54 ERA, 8.15 K/9, 2.64 BB/9, 42.6 percent ground-ball rate and 9.7 percent home run-to-fly ball ratio in 667 2/3 innings. On the strength of that 92-start stretch, Kazmir agreed to a three-year, $48MM deal with Los Angeles last winter in a market that featured far more high-end pitching than this offseason’s class, so another quality campaign would have made him an obvious opt-out candidate. Instead, the three-time All-Star logged a 4.56 ERA – up from 3.10 in 2015 – over just 136 1/3 innings. Part of the problem for Kazmir was a 15 percent HR-FB ratio, by far the highest figure of his 11-year major league tenure. He also recorded a 3.43 BB/9, a notable decline from the control he showed in the previous three seasons, and threw just one inning after August (on Sept. 23) as he dealt with thoracic spine inflammation and spasms in his ribs and chest.

The 2016 season wasn’t a complete disaster for Kazmir, who posted an 8.85 K/9 and 14.3 percent infield fly rate – his best marks in those categories since 2013 and 2009, respectively – and yielded mostly soft contact. Given Kazmir’s somewhat strong track record and the dearth of of decent starters on this year’s market, it’s possible he could draw trade interest, as Sherman notes. It’s unknown if the Dodgers plan to shop Kazmir, but if they do, it would be a tall order to deal him without eating some portion of the money left on his contract.

Cubs Notes: Rotation, Soler, Epstein

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The latest on the 2016 World Series champions:

  • The Cubs have an enviable long-term core of position players that includes Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Jason Heyward and Kyle Schwarber. However, future rotation issues could prevent the team from becoming a dynasty, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider required and recommended), who points out that Kyle Hendricks, Jon Lester and swingman/World Series Game 7 closer Mike Montgomery are their only starters signed beyond next season. Jake Arrieta, John Lackey and Jason Hammel will be free agents a year from now, and rival talent evaluators feel that Chicago’s top pitching prospects are still far from potentially cracking the majors, per Olney. Thus, in order to fill out their rotation, the Cubs could turn to next year’s open market – Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka and Danny Duffy are among starters who could hit free agency then – and/or deal from their excellent group of position players to acquire pitching.
  • With Heyward, Schwarber, Ben Zobrist and Albert Almora Jr. in the fold as outfield options, the Cubs could shop Jorge Soler this offseason. But FOX Sports’ CJ Nitkowski opines that Chicago missed its chance to trade Soler (Twitter link via MLB Network Radio). It wasn’t long ago that Soler looked like a surefire core piece, but the Cuba native has underwhelmed since bursting on the scene late in the 2014 campaign. He’s still just 24, though, and didn’t perform badly at the plate in 2016 (.238/.333/.436 with 12 home runs in 264 plate appearances). Soler is also controllable through the 2020 season. He’ll make a relative pittance ($3MM) in 2017 and will then have the opportunity to opt into arbitration.
  • President of baseball operations Theo Epstein’s shrewd trading is one obvious reason the Cubs are in their current position, as Andrew Simon of MLB.com observes. Epstein has picked up several integral players that way, having landed Rizzo, Arrieta, Hendricks and Russell, to name a few. Nabbing Rizzo from the Padres in 2012 is the best deal Epstein has made since taking the helm of the franchise five years ago, posits Simon. The Cubs got the now-superstar first baseman for right-hander Andrew Cashner, who currently resembles more of a back-end starter than a major difference-maker.

AL East Links: Rays, Longoria, Orioles, Hobgood, Blue Jays

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Some news and notes from around the AL East…

  • “When you only win 68 games, you’re open to everything,” Rays president of baseball operations Matt Silverman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.  “Everything” doesn’t quite extend to Evan Longoria, as Topkin writes that the team doesn’t have any interest in trading the longtime face of the franchise.  The Rays head into the GM Meetings and the offseason in general with many needs, with Silverman saying that the club will primarily rely on trades to fill those needs (no surprise, given Tampa’s usual reluctance to spend big on free agents).
  • The Orioles’ search for a new pitching coach continues, as the team interviewed Double-A pitching coach Alan Mills this past week, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports.  The O’s are also interested in former Braves pitching coach Roger McDowell and Cardinals minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque.
  • Also from Kubatko’s piece, he reports that former Orioles first-rounder Matt Hobgood is trying to restart his career as a hitter.  Hobgood, picked fifth overall in the 2009 draft, managed only 325 innings over parts of six pro seasons in the minors, as shoulder problems continually kept him off the mound.  Hobgood still has a long ways to go in order to get properly re-acclimated to hitting, though at age 26, he doesn’t yet want to give up on his baseball dream.
  • With a number of first basemen and designated hitters on the free agent market, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith argues that the Blue Jays could be in no rush to fill the potential hole left by Edwin Encarnacion.  Since the Jays can offer a spot on a contender and playing time in a hitter-friendly ballpark, they’re an attractive option for many 1B/DH types, which presents the possibility of Toronto landing a big bat at perhaps a bargain price.  Nicholson-Smith also posits that the Jays could pursue Ian Desmond, Steve Pearce or Sean Rodriguez to fill their need for versatility.  Among more outside-the-box ideas, Nicholson-Smith suggests the Jays could try to acquire J.D. Martinez from the Tigers, or take advantage of the thin pitching market by listening to offers on “anyone this side of Aaron Sanchez,” with Joe Biagini perhaps ready to step into the rotation if another starter is dealt.

AL Central Notes: Holland, Twins, White Sox, Hahn, Tigers

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Here’s the latest from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins will have representatives at Greg Holland’s showcase tomorrow, 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link).  The Giants, Rangers, Yankees and Red Sox will also have scouts on hand at Holland’s showcase, while the Royals are also known to have interest in a reunion with their former closer and will probably also have personnel on hand.  Holland missed all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, though he is already drawing a lot of attention from both contenders and rebuilding clubs like Minnesota as an intriguing bounce-back candidate.
  • The Twins are expected to heavily expand the baseball operations department under Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes.  Minnesota had just 15 people working in baseball ops last year, as per the team’s press guide, while other teams had almost twice as many personnel working in a wide variety of roles.  As you might expect given Falvey and Levine’s background with modern statistical analysis, the Twins’ analytics department is expected to receive particular attention.
  • “White Sox GM Rick Hahn is open for business on just about his entire roster,” more than one general manager tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes noted in his recent Offseason Outlook piece about the Sox, the looming question over Chicago’s winter plans is whether the team intends to rebuild or try to contend in 2017, and Cafardo’s news would seem to hint at the former.
  • With the Tigers looking to curb their free-spending ways, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards explores the possibility of the team dealing Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander in a single blockbuster trade.  This would allow the Tigers to reload on both payroll space and prospects for a quick return to contention by as soon as 2018.  Assuming Verlander is willing to waive his no-trade protection, he’d get a lot of attention from other teams even with his big price tag ($84MM through 2019 and a $22MM vesting option for 2020) since starting pitching is so scarce this winter.  As for Cabrera, who is coming off another tremendous season and is owed $220MM through 2023, Edwards writes that “the length of his contract means his trade value will never be higher than it is right now. Indeed, as soon as next season, he might be untradeable.”  It’s a short list, of course, of teams that could afford to absorb Verlander and Cabrera’s deals even if Detroit kicked in some money; Edwards suggests that the Red Sox, Mariners, Rangers or Yankees could be fits.

Coppolella On Braves’ Offseason Plans

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In each of the last two years, the Braves completed a major trade (dealing Jason Heyward in 2014 and Andrelton Simmons in 2015) soon after the completion of the GM Meetings.  General manager John Coppolella tells David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that the club is prepared to again move quickly if another interesting offer comes along, saying that “we’re not going to wait around for any type of artificial date.  I couldn’t care less about (waiting for) the Winter Meetings or whenever.  The best time to make a trade is when a good trade is offered to you.  We’re always trying to find ways to get better.”  Here’s more from Coppolella…

  • Starting pitching is clearly the Braves’ biggest winter need, though Atlanta is only looking for starters on short-term deals so none of the team’s young starters are blocked.  Not that this winter’s free agent market has a true proven ace anyway, but even if it did, Coppolella noted that this type of pitcher wouldn’t be a target.  “You don’t buy No. 1 starters, you grow them.  You draft them, you develop them,” the GM said.  “For us, it’s not efficient for us to go out and buy a No. 1 starter.  Unless something drastically changes, you won’t see us going after a No. 1 starter.”
  • Barring an offer of “something crazy” from another team, Coppolella isn’t looking to deal outfielders Ender Inciarte, Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis.  Not only are the Braves “not out there shopping” these players, “in fact we’re not really even listening on guys.  Because these are players that we really like and we feel like they fit us well on the field as well as off the field.”
  • While Atlanta could pursue a catching upgrade in free agency, Coppolella reiterated that the team would be satisfied with its current Tyler Flowers/Anthony Recker tandem for 2017.  The Braves could also look to trade for a catcher, though a deal to bring Brian McCann back to Atlanta seems unlikely.  Earlier reports claimed the Yankees asked for either Inciarte or Mike Foltynewicz as part of a trade for McCann, and O’Brien reports that, in fact, New York wanted both Inciarte and Foltynewicz.  Needless to say, talks didn’t get very far.

NL Central Notes: Cubs, Montero, Mozeliak, Stearns

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The Cubs’ celebration of their World Series win took them to the Saturday Night Live stage, as Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler and David Ross made two cameo appearances on last night’s show.  The players first appeared in a sketch as (of all things) dancers at a bachelorette party, and the trio returned later in the show to sing “Go Cubs Go” alongside SNL legend and Cubs superfan Bill Murray.  Since Fowler officially elected to become a free agent last evening (slightly before SNL went on the air), this may mark the last time we see the outfielder in a Cubs uniform.  Here’s the latest from Wrigleyville and elsewhere around the NL Central…

  • In a recent interview on ESPN 1000’s Waddle and Silvy Show (hat tip to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune), Miguel Montero admitted that he frustrated by his diminished playing time during the season and wished he had received more input from Joe Maddon about his role on the team.  Montero appeared in 86 games and hit .216/.327/.357 over 284 plate appearances, with Ross and Willson Contreras getting an increasingly large share of the catching workload throughout the year and in the postseason.  Though Montero is owed $14MM next season, he’ll likely still be limited to backup duties behind Contreras and possibly Kyle Schwarber if the Cubs still consider the slugger an option behind the plate.  As Gonzalez notes, Montero’s large salary will make him a tough sell on the trade market unless the Cubs are willing to eat some of the money.
  • Exercising Jaime Garcia’s club option gives the Cardinals rotation depth and some possible breathing room to make a trade, GM John Mozeliak tells Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  “As we look to the trade market as we get to the GM meetings, we want to be able to not have our hands tied.  For example, if we had not picked up the option, and all of a sudden we feel there’s a trade that might make sense for us that’s going to have to include a starter, then we’re left with having to backfill,” Mozeliak said.  “Given what Jaime was able to accomplish last year, clearly it didn’t end the way he would’ve liked it to, but he still ate a lot of valuable innings for us.  When I think about what’s out there on the free-agent market, I still think it’s an asset to have….And what if we have to move someone else? It would be nice to still have the depth in our rotation.”  Hochman figures the Cards will be more active on the trade market than in free agency this winter, and he thinks the team will look at upgrading the defense in the wake of club-wide defensive metrics ranging from middling to below-average.
  • Brewers GM David Stearns doesn’t expect as busy an offseason as last winter’s roster overhaul, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel writes.  “I think the amount of transactional volume that we had over the past 12 months was probably unprecedented.  It would be tough for me to imagine that we would see a similar-type volume,” Stearns said.  The GM also spoke of the importance of keeping a flexible 40-man roster, so the club has the opportunity to make additions if they unexpectedly arise.

Indians Decline Option On Coco Crisp

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SUNDAY: The Indians have officially declined Crisp’s option.

FRIDAY: The Indians have informed outfielder Coco Crisp that they will be declining his $13MM option for the 2017 season, tweets Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. He’ll instead receive a $750K buyout and hit the open market in search of a new contract this winter.

Crisp, who turned 37 three days ago, returned to the Indians in an August trade with the Athletics. While he struggled for Cleveland in a reserve capacity down the stretch, Crisp did deliver a pair of important postseason home runs for the Tribe. Overall on the regular season, the switch-hitter recorded a .231/.302/.397 slash line that’s a bit better than it would appear on the surface due to the fact that so many of his at-bats came in Oakland’s cavernous Coliseum. Nonetheless, that line did check in below the league average, as did his defensive ratings in center field (though his left field work still received solid reviews from Defensive Runs Saved).

It’s worth noting that Crisp, though, did still tally 13 homers and 10 stolen bases, thereby demonstrating that he still has the blend of pop and speed that have made him such a solid contributor over the course of his 15-year Major League career. He also fared considerably better as a left-handed hitter than he did as a right-handed bat, so it certainly seems that he could still contribute to a big league club in the corner outfield in a part-time capacity at the very least.

Dexter Fowler Declines Mutual Option

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SATURDAY: Fowler is now officially a free agent, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link).

FRIDAY: Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler will decline his half of a $9MM mutual option and re-enter the free-agent market, Fowler himself said on ESPN’s Sportscenter last night (via ESPN News Services). The news comes as little surprise on the heels of a career year for Fowler, who should be one of the top outfielders and top all-around free agents on this year’s open market.

“I’m definitely going to be a free agent, but hopefully it happens a little bit quicker than last year,” said the 30-year-old switch-hitting outfielder. “You can’t control what goes on, but I loved my time in Chicago and I’m definitely not counting them out, but we’ll see what God has planned for us now.”

Fowler, who will turn 31 next March, batted .276/.393/.447 with 13 homers and 13 steals in 125 games/551 plate appearances for the Cubs in the regular season before kicking in a trio of postseason home runs on during the Cubs’ curse-breaking World Series run. He’s a surefire candidate to receive a qualifying offer from Chicago, which would give him a one-year, $17.2MM offer to return to the team, but based on Fowler’s comments it seems safe to say he’ll be rejecting the QO to again test free agency.

That’s familiar territory for Fowler, who rejected a QO from the Cubs last winter and spent much of the offseason languishing on the free-agent market. While he reportedly came close to a three-year deal with the Orioles in February — many credible reporters indicated that the deal was agreed to, though Fowler’s agent vehemently denied that rumor after the fact — Fowler ultimately settled for a one-year deal to return to Chicago instead. That was a surprising development, considering Fowler entered the offseason seemingly poised to score a strong free-agent payday. Some teams weren’t willing to part with the draft pick required to sign him, however, and that could again prove true this winter. However, it also seems less likely, as Fowler is now coming off the two best seasons of his career and has seemingly erased some concerns about his defense in center field. Fowler recently told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that teams last winter weren’t convinced of his ability to play center field, but he altered his positioning this year and drew slightly above-average marks from both Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved for the first time in his career.

Alternatively, if Fowler is open to playing an outfield corner, his market would almost certainly grow even more robust, as a number of contending clubs with money to spend (e.g. the Giants, Blue Jays, Dodgers and Rangers) could look to the free-agent market to find help in the outfield corners. It was genuinely surprising that a long-term deal did not materialize for Fowler earlier in the offseason last winter, but it’ll come as even more of a shock if he’s not able to lock down a lucrative multi-year commitment in the 2016-17 offseason. From my vantage point, Fowler should be able to land at least a four-year contract this winter even after rejecting the qualifying offer.

Quick Hits: Rockies, Brewers, Yankees, Mariners

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Royals bench coach Don Wakamatsu is no longer in the running for the Rockies’ managerial job, reports Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com. Both the Rockies and Diamondbacks interviewed Wakamatsu, whose previous experience as a manager came with Seattle from 2009-10. Arizona ended up hiring Torey Lovullo, leaving Colorado as the majors’ only skipper-less team.

Here’s more from around baseball:

  • Tampa Bay police arrested Brewers center fielder Keon Broxton on a misdemeanor trespass charge Friday morning, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Broxton’s arrest came after the 26-year-old refused to leave the area of a fight. According to the police report, Broxton was “extremely intoxicated,” “hostile” and had “visible injuries to his face but declined medical attention.” Broxton got out of jail on $500 bond a few hours after his arrest and later issued a statement apologizing to the Brewers, their fans and law enforcement officials. “I will learn from this incident and I will certainly make better decisions moving forward,” he said (Twitter link via Haudricourt).
  • Yankees catcher Brian McCann could end up on the move via trade this offseason, but general manager Brian Cashman is bullish about keeping him as the team’s main insurance behind young star Gary Sanchez. “Based on his success the past season, Sanchez is the everyday catcher,’’ Cashman told George A. King III of the New York Post. “[McCann] can DH and catch a minimum of two games a week. We have two power-hitting catchers, one right and one left who hit 20 homers.’’ The Yankees highly value McCann, having reportedly asked the Braves for underrated center fielder Ender Inciarte or promising right-hander Mike Foltynewicz in return. Even if the Braves were amenable to giving up one of those players, McCann – who’s owed $34MM through 2018 – has a full no-trade clause and would have been able to veto the deal. “If we need to address something from the Yankees, they will let us know,’’ McCann’s agent, BB Abbott, told King via email. “Until then, we are allowing the club the space to run and build their club.’’
  • The Mariners concluded the 2016 season with a payroll near $150MM, a franchise record, and owner John Stanton told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times he’s unsure if the club will spend more than that next year. However, Stanton would be open to a payroll increase if general manager Jerry Dipoto were to insist on one. “If Jerry came to us and said there was the one piece that I think we needed to be successful, I think we’d go out and get it,” said Stanton, who took over the Mariners in August. “I just hate to lose,” he added. The Mariners have now gone a league-worst 15 straight years without a playoff berth, though they did finish with a respectable 86-76 record this past season. Jason Martinez of MLBTR and Roster Resource estimates that the M’s have roughly $129MM committed toward next year’s team.

Blue Jays To Qualify Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista; Not Michael Saunders

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As expected, the Blue Jays will issue $17.2MM qualifying offers to their top two impending free agents, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista, by Monday’s deadline, according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Conversely, Toronto will not submit a QO to Michael Saunders, meaning he’ll hit free agency without draft pick compensation weighing down his value (Twitter links).

Of the three, Encarnacion is the one the Blue Jays want to retain the most, per Heyman. The soon-to-be 34-year-old first baseman/designated hitter is coming off his fifth straight season with at least 34 home runs, having swatted a career-high-tying 42 in 2016. Overall, Encarnacion slashed .263/.357/.529 in 709 plate appearances. Since 2012, his breakout season, the former Red has batted .272/.367/.544 with 193 homers and a .273 ISO in 3,133 PAs. Only the Orioles’ Chris Davis (197) has hit more long balls in that span than Encarnacion, whose ISO over the past half-decade ranks behind only Giancarlo Stanton and David Ortiz. Now, the power-hitting Encarnacion should encounter a robust market for his services in free agency as one of the two best position players available (Yoenis Cespedes is the other).

While Bautista won’t fare as well as Encarnacion on his next contract, the right fielder will still garner plenty of interest and rake in a sizable payday. Going back to his out-of-nowhere breakout in 2010, Bautista has recorded a phenomenal .264/.387/.542 line with 249 HRs to go with nearly identical strikeout and walk rates – 16.0 and 16.5 percent – and a .278 ISO.  The 36-year-old is fresh off a less-than-ideal platform season, however, as he endured two stints on the disabled list and experienced a decline in his normally superb production. Bautista still hit an easily above-average .234/.366/.452 with 22 homers in 517 PAs and continued exhibiting mastery over the strike zone (87 unintentional walks, 103 strikeouts). But a dip in offense combined with Bautista’s age, not to mention a lack of defensive value, are among the factors that will keep him from netting a contract anywhere close to as rich as he reportedly wanted before the season.

At the midway point of the campaign, Saunders looked as though he was playing his way to a qualifying offer and a lucrative multiyear pact. In 344 PAs before the All-Star break, the outfielder batted a stellar .298/.372/.551 with 16 HRs and a .252 ISO. Saunders’ production cratered in the second half – .178/.282/.357 with eight HRs and a .178 ISO in 214 PAs – thereby putting a damper on his seemingly skyrocketing value. He also graded poorly as a left fielder, ranking toward the bottom of the majors in Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, and comes with an injury-prone label. Saunders (30 later this month) did play a career-high 140 games in 2016, though, and both that and not having a QO attached should help the ex-Mariner’s cause as a free agent.

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