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Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2016 at 8:26pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

Myriad injuries helped jeopardize the Mets’ postseason chances in 2016, but the team went on a tear over the final month and a half to secure its second straight playoff berth. Another World Series appearance wasn’t in the cards, though, as the Mets ran into October buzzsaw Madison Bumgarner and fell to the Giants in the National League wild-card game. Now, for the second offseason in a row, New York is in danger of losing lineup cornerstone Yoenis Cespedes.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • David Wright, 3B: $67MM through 2020
  • Juan Lagares, OF: $20MM through 2019 (club option for 2020)
  • Curtis Granderson, OF: $15MM through 2017
  • Jay Bruce, OF: $13MM through 2017
  • Asdrubal Cabrera, SS: $8.25MM through 2017 (club option for 2018)
  • Jose Reyes, INF: $507,500 through 2017

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Lucas Duda (5.137) – $6.725MM
  • Rene Rivera (5.070) – $2.2MM
  • Addison Reed (5.001) – $10.6MM
  • Matt Harvey (4.072) – $5.2MM
  • Jeurys Familia (4.030) – $8.7MM
  • Zack Wheeler (3.098) – $1.0MM
  • Josh Edgin (3.097) – $800K
  • Travis d’Arnaud (3.044) – $1.7MM
  • Wilmer Flores (3.003) – $1.9MM
  • Jacob deGrom (2.139) – $4.5MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Rivera

Free Agents

  • Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, James Loney, Bartolo Colon, Alejandro De Aza, Jerry Blevins, Fernando Salas, Kelly Johnson, Jon Niese, Justin Ruggiano

Mets Depth Chart; Mets Payroll Information

When the Mets acquired Cespedes from Detroit prior to the 2015 non-waiver trade deadline, they were three games above .500 and at risk of missing the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season. After his move to New York, Cespedes slashed an outstanding .287/.337/.604 to help lead the club to a 37-22 regular-season finish and an NL East title. Cespedes’ bat cooled off in the playoffs, particularly during the Mets’ five-game World Series loss to the Royals, but the outfielder was nonetheless instrumental in their return to relevance and would have been a significant loss had he signed elsewhere as a free agent. It appeared that would happen, but after he couldn’t find any offers to his liking on the market, Cespedes shockingly re-signed with the Mets on a three-year, $75MM deal in late January. That agreement came with a catch for the Mets, though: They had to give Cespedes a three-day opt-out window after this year’s World Series.

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Shortly after the Fall Classic between the Cubs and Indians concluded, Cespedes unsurprisingly voided what was left of his contract in order to take another shot at free agency. Having batted .280/.354./530 with 31 home runs in 534 plate appearances this past season, the 31-year-old likely has a better chance than any other impending free agent to land an accord worth upward of nine figures. Cespedes has expressed a desire to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but it’s difficult to envision him falling into their laps again on a deal similar to the one he just vacated.

This winter’s class of free agents is far less enticing than the group from last year, when fellow outfielders Jason Heyward and Justin Upton were among seven players to secure pacts well in excess of $100MM. That should drive up the price to sign Cespedes, for whom the Mets reportedly aren’t willing to engage in a bidding war or go past the three-year mark on a new contract. Between Cespedes’ opt-out and his latest foray into free agency, the Mets will issue him a qualifying offer. If he signs elsewhere, they’ll receive a first-round draft pick as compensation.

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Predictably, what happens with Cespedes is going to have an enormous effect on how Mets general manager Sandy Alderson approaches the offseason. If he does go unsigned for a while and the Mets wait for a resolution, it could impact their ability to reel in other free agents. Cespedes’ departure would still leave the team with a few satisfactory corner outfield options in Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto, though all are left-handed hitters. Thus, finding a competent right-handed bat like utilityman Steve Pearce – in whom the Mets had summer interest – or Sean Rodriguez via free agency would make sense.

The top center fielder on the roster is defensive standout Juan Lagares, but he hasn’t shown much offensively. With that in mind, pursuing one of the proven free agent center fielders – Dexter Fowler, Ian Desmond or ex-Met Carlos Gomez – could be in the offing. All three are either right-handed or switch-hitters who will cost much less than Cespedes. But the Mets would likely have to act quickly to lock up any of them, which would perhaps mean moving on from Cespedes in the event he delays signing. The trade market could also feature intriguing right-handed options in Andrew McCutchen (Pirates), Lorenzo Cain (Royals), though neither will be easy to acquire if their teams do shop them.

Shifting to the infield, the Mets unsurprisingly plan to tender Duda a contract for 2017. The 30-year-old slugger missed most of 2016 with a stress fracture in his lower back, but a healthy version was an important part of New York’s offense from 2011-15. Re-signing Cespedes or acquiring another high-profile outfielder (the Tigers’ J.D. Martinez is another trade possibility) could lead the Mets to shop Duda, though, as Conforto would perhaps move to first base. Conforto has already acknowledged the possibility, but he’s coming off a discouraging season and still has minor league options remaining. While the Mets might not want to send the promising youngster back to Triple-A Las Vegas, where he mashed over 143 PAs this year, it’s doubtful he would be an upgrade at first over an uninjured Duda.

The Mets may also have to consider third baseman David Wright as at least an occasional right-handed complement to the lefty-swinging Duda or Conforto at first. The seven-time All-Star and longtime face of the franchise combined for a meager 75 appearances over the past two seasons while dealing with spinal stenosis and other issues. Wright underwent neck surgery in June and said earlier this month he’s “really positive and really confident” he’ll be OK, but counting on his health going forward would be risky.

Using a combination of Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Kelly Johnson (an impending free agent), T.J. Rivera and Ty Kelly, the Mets got by fine this year without Wright. But whether they’ll re-sign Johnson or add other insurance at third could depend on what happens at the keystone, as keeping their second-best free agent, Neil Walker, or finding another proven commodity would enable the Mets to deploy their reserves at the hot corner if Wright’s injuries persist. Not re-signing Walker could also put Reyes in position to take over as the full-time second baseman, which would give the Mets one fewer capable infield reserve.

Despite his September back surgery, the Mets do intend to issue Walker a qualifying offer. If Walker exits the Big Apple in the coming weeks, he’d join Daniel Murphy as the second quality second baseman to leave the Mets since last winter. Murphy signed with the Nationals, with whom he starred, paving the way for the Mets to acquire Walker from Pittsburgh. A year later, it’s not hard to imagine a Walker-less Mets team attempting to go the trade route again and inquiring on Brandon Phillips (Reds), Ian Kinsler (Tigers) or Brian Dozier (Twins). That isn’t to imply any will switch uniforms in advance of next season, however: Phillips has a no-trade clause that he used multiple times last offseason; Kinsler, 34, is too important and reasonably priced to ship out if the Tigers plan to contend, though they do want to get younger; and the Mets would have to trade a haul of youthful talent for Dozier (including high-end shortstop prospect Amed Rosario, perhaps) if the Twins were to place him on the block. In terms of free agency, unless the Mets are open to replacing Walker with Public Enemy No. 1 Chase Utley, there won’t be much available.

As is the case with most of its infield (the exception being shortstop, where Asdrubal Cabrera was terrific in his first year as a Met), it’s unclear what the team will do behind the plate in the coming months. Injury-prone starter Travis d’Arnaud took massive steps backward during his 75-game campaign, including losing playing time to light-hitting journeyman Rene Rivera down the stretch. That carried into the Mets’ lone playoff game, in which Rivera started over d’Arnaud. Between his shrinking role this year and the Mets’ summer attempt to trade d’Arnaud for Jonathan Lucroy, they no longer seem sold on the former highly regarded prospect.

Potential upgrades over d’Arnaud will be scarce in free agency, where Matt Wieters, Wilson Ramos, Nick Hundley and Jason Castro lead the pack. Each could pique the Mets’ interest (FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal has already mentioned Wieters as a possibility), though Ramos carries an especially high amount of risk after tearing his ACL in late September. Ramos seems like a strong candidate to end up in the American League, where he would be able to serve as a designated hitter until he’s healthy enough to catch regularly. Thus, one of d’Arnaud, Wieters, Hundley or Castro is probably the best bet to start for the Mets next year, as there won’t be a lot of help on the trade market. While the Yankees could move Brian McCann, transactions between them and their crosstown rivals have been few and far between. Derek Norris of the Padres might be likelier than McCann to change homes in a trade, but he’s fresh off an even worse year than d’Arnaud.

Whether it’ll be d’Arnaud, Rivera, Kevin Plawecki or an outsider doing most of the work behind the plate for the Mets in 2017, he’ll be the receiver for an elite-caliber rotation. Injuries tore through the Mets’ staff in 2016, yet their starters still finished first in the majors in fWAR (18.3) and third in ERA (3.61). Only two Mets (ace Noah Syndergaard and Bartolo Colon) exceeded 180 innings along the way. Syndergaard pitched through bone spurs, while Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey and Steven Matz all saw their seasons conclude prematurely because of various surgeries. Moreover, Zack Wheeler missed his second straight full campaign.

DeGrom and Matz should be ready for spring after undergoing elbow procedures, but Harvey’s situation seems harder to predict. After establishing himself as a superstar hurler over his first two-plus years in the majors, Harvey stumbled to 92 2/3 mediocre innings this past season and opted in July for thoracic outlet surgery on his right shoulder. Fortunately for the Mets (and those who enjoy world-class pitching), the medical outlook on Harvey is currently optimistic. As for Wheeler, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2014 after undergoing March 2015 Tommy John surgery, manager Terry Collins expects the 26-year-old to be ready for spring training.

While it would perhaps be unrealistic to think all of the Mets’ injury cases will avoid setbacks leading up to next April, there’s still enviable starting depth on hand with that group joining Syndergaard and a pair of unexpected 2016 success stories in Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Those starters make the Mets seven deep on paper, which would theoretically increase the odds of Colon’s exit in free agency. However, the fan favorite has been such a stabilizing presence in his three seasons with the Mets that it would be tough for them to lose him. Plus, even a healthy Mets squad would have room for the innings eater in their rotation with Lugo, Gsellman and Wheeler still having minor league options. The Mets would like Colon back, but the soon-to-be 44-year-old wants a two-year deal, per Matthew Cerrone of SNY. Despite his age, the durable and steady Colon just might get a multiyear contract in such a weak market for starters.

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The Mets’ relief corps isn’t as well off as their rotation, and closer Jeurys Familia’s domestic violence arrest is extremely concerning for obvious off-the-field reasons. From a baseball standpoint, it will complicate Alderson’s plans for configuring the roster. Familia is due a sizable raise in arbitration, and it would have been a no-brainer before his arrest to tender the 27-year-old a contract for next season and continue with him and Addison Reed forming one of the sport’s most dominant late-game tandems. Now, depending on further legal developments prior to the upcoming non-tender deadline, it’s fair to wonder if this incident will end up severe enough for the club to move on from him. The Mets have been content to employ Reyes – a domestic violence offender – but his matter was no longer a legal issue by the time they signed him in June, and the 51-game suspension the league handed him had already expired. Further, Reyes came at a pittance. That won’t be true for Familia.

In the admittedly unlikely event the Mets cut the cord on Familia (or in the more plausible case of a lengthy suspension), it could put them in the market for Kenley Jansen or Mark Melancon – two of the best soon-to-be available closers. Fellow ninth-inning ace Aroldis Chapman is at the top of the free agent heap, but would the Mets really add another player associated with domestic violence? Wade Davis (Royals) and/or David Robertson (White Sox) might hit the trade block, and either would be worth looking into in light of Familia’s situation.

Even if Familia remains with the Mets and escapes an austere brand of discipline from commissioner Rob Manfred, there will still be questions about the Mets’ bullpen heading into 2017. Familia, Reed and fellow righty Hansel Robles each threw 77 2/3 effective innings this season, but the rest of the group isn’t nearly as settled.

Left-hander Jerry Blevins and late-season pickup Fernando Salas are going to the open market after thriving in New York this year. Neither two-time Met Jon Niese, who did anything but thrive in 2016, nor Jim Henderson will return. Erik Goeddel, Logan Verrett, Sean Gilmartin all struggled over a fair amount of innings (Verrett’s 2.84 ERA as a reliever looks much better than his 5.17 FIP), while Gabriel Ynoa had trouble across a smaller sample size. There’s also Josh Edgin, whose numbers in 10 1/3 frames weren’t great. It was his first action since March 2015 Tommy John procedure, however, and he closed the year on an encouraging note with 10 scoreless appearances over his final 11 outings. He’ll probably factor into the Mets’ plans again next year as a cheap lefty. Fellow southpaw Josh Smoker could be in the mix, too, as he overcame a couple woeful weeks from late August to early September to log 11 scoreless showings in his last 12. Lugo could take another bullpen spot, though earning a big league rotation job or starting in the minors seem like more realistic outcomes. Regardless, he was superb in his 17 innings as a reliever in 2016, notching a 2.65 ERA, 8.47 K/9 and 3.18 BB/9 in nine appearances.

If the Mets try to to bolster the back end of their bullpen with free agents other than Jansen or Melancon, they could opt for Salas, Joe Blanton, Santiago Casilla, Greg Holland, Sergio Romo or Brad Ziegler, among others, from the right side. Some of the non-Chapman lefties on the market will include Blevins, Brett Cecil, Mike Dunn and Boone Logan.

In terms of building a team, Familia has clearly made Alderson’s job harder. On the bright side for the longtime executive, the Mets still have one of the league’s foremost starting staffs and Reed, who was phenomenal this year. Therefore, whatever happens with Familia, the club should remain better than most at preventing runs next season. In the meantime, with the Mets potentially losing their offensive centerpiece, Cespedes, and Walker, Alderson will have to assemble a lineup capable of supporting the club’s array of talented pitchers. As Alderson indicated after re-signing Cespedes last winter, the franchise is willing to spend to put a championship contender on the field. So, whether it means winning the Cespedes sweepstakes again or making some other notable splash(es), it’s going to be an active offseason for the Mets.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals New York Mets

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Cubs, Indians, Trades, Free Agency

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2016 at 7:02pm CDT

This week in the baseball blogosphere:

  • The Score names three reasons why the Cubs will repeat as World Series champions in 2017.
  • Now On Deck has five post-World Series questions, including what’s next for the American League-winning Indians.
  • Camden Depot explores potential trade scenarios centering on Orioles closer Zach Britton.
  • Baseball Essential proposes a three-way trade among the Yankees, Mets and Rays.
  • Chin Music Baseball argues that the Indians’ Francisco Lindor is baseball’s best young shortstop.
  • The 3rd Man In explains why the Brewers won’t be able to mimic the Cubs’ rebuild.
  • Wayniac Nation lists five outfield prospects who could make impacts in 2017.
  • The Point of Pittsburgh looks into a few struggling starters whom the Pirates could acquire and try to turn into the next Andrew Miller.
  • Off The Bench Baseball encourages fans to predict outcomes involving the top 30 free agents of this winter’s class. The winner gets a cash prize.
  • OTBB also regards Nationals center fielder/shortstop Trea Turner as one of baseball’s most valuable players.
  • Pirates Breakdown and Sports Talk Philly focus on Rangers left-hander Derek Holland as a potential trade target for the Bucs and Phillies, respectively.
  • Baseball Docs highlights a few teams that could trade for Twins second baseman Brian Dozier this offseason.
  • Outside Pitch MLB suggests the White Sox should pursue Jose Bautista in free agency.
  • Call To The Pen (links here) tries to rebuild the Phillies’ lineup and rotation.
  • Jays From The Couch and Jays Journal identify some potential offseason outfield targets for Toronto.
  • Die Hard NYY wonders if the Yankees and Rangers could swap outfielders Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo.
  • Inside the ’Zona details and ranks the Diamondbacks’ top 10 prospects.
  • MLB 451 isn’t quite buying the Javier Baez hype.
  • Bronx Bomber Blogger passes out its 2016 MLB awards.
  • The Runner Sports profiles Astros catcher prospect Garrett Stubbs.
  • Pinstripe Pundits breaks down which players the Yankees could remove from their 40-man roster.

Please send submissions to ZachBBWI @gmail.com.

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Baseball Blogs Weigh In

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Indians Name Co-Assistant General Managers

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2016 at 5:55pm CDT

Indians president Chris Antonetti and general manager Mike Chernoff have decided it’s going to take two executives to replace former assistant GM Derek Falvey, who became the Twins’ chief baseball officer after the World Series. The American League champions promoted Carter Hawkins and Matt Forman to co-assistant GMs on Friday, Chernoff announced (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com).

“I don’t expect we’ll fill [Falvey’s role] exactly the same way, but Carter Hawkins and Matt Forman will be promoted to assistant general managers. Carter, who had been director of player development, will continue to oversee our player development,” said Chernoff.

Hawkins, whom the Indians hired in 2008, became their player development director in 2014. He oversaw the Tribe’s farm system in that role, which will continue to be the case in his new position, per Bastian.

This is the second promotion in less than a year for Forman, who took over as the Indians’ director of baseball operations last Nov. 20 when Falvey moved up to assistant GM. Prior to joining the Indians in 2013, Forman worked for Baseball America.

“Matt, who had sort of come up through more of a scouting background, will oversee a lot of our scouting and acquisition processes — international, professional — and continue to be involved in the amateur stuff,” Chernoff stated. “And then, both guys will be part of our leadership team with all personnel, staff development and other initiatives.”

It doesn’t appear the AL Central rival Twins will force Cleveland to undergo more front office changes during the offseason, as Antonetti said Friday that he doesn’t expect Falvey to hire away any Indians execs. Falvey already tabbed a GM earlier in the week in former Rangers assistant Thad Levine.

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Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, Yankees Among Teams Set To Watch Greg Holland Showcase

By charliewilmoth | November 5, 2016 at 5:05pm CDT

SATURDAY: The Yankees will also send representatives to watch Holland on Monday, according to George A. King III of the New York Post.

FRIDAY: The Red Sox are also showing some interest and will attend the showcase, which is scheduled for Monday, per WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Likewise, the Rangers will be on hand, MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan tweets.

THURSDAY: The Giants are “legitimately intrigued” by former Royals closer Greg Holland and will scout his upcoming showcase, Andrew Baggarly of the Bay Area News Group tweets. Holland’s agent, Scott Boras, recently said Holland was throwing in the low 90s and would hold a showcase within the next week.

Holland missed the 2016 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery near the end of the 2015 season. He understandably struggled somewhat that year while pitching through a UCL tear, posting a 3.83 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and a too-high 5.2 BB/9 while throwing his fastball an average of about two MPH slower than the mid-90s heater he’d thrown previously. Before that, though, he was dominant, posting a combined 1.86 ERA, 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 from 2011 through 2014.

If Holland is now mostly or fully healthy, it’s for the first time in awhile. But it’s easy to see why the Giants (and, surely, many other teams) would have significant interest. He has an extremely impressive track record, and he’ll be far enough removed from surgery by next March that it’s easy to imagine he could reemerge as an effective, or even terrific, reliever if everything goes well. The Royals have also been connected to Holland, and it seems likely other teams besides San Francisco and Kansas City will enter the fray too.

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Quick Hits: Cespedes, Matheny, Lyons, Padres

By charliewilmoth | November 5, 2016 at 4:41pm CDT

This offseason’s Yoenis Cespedes sweepstakes could come down to the Mets, Nationals, Giants and Blue Jays, Mike Puma of the New York Post writes. A return to New York makes sense, but only if the Mets are willing to make a commitment long enough to lure Cespedes back, Puma writes. The Nats competed for Cespedes last year, but this winter, signing Cespedes would require them to move Bryce Harper back to center field. The Giants, meanwhile, have an outfield opening with Angel Pagan set to depart, and the Blue Jays have a number of key offensive free agents, although it’s unclear whether they’ll seek to add a new talent as expensive as Cespedes will likely be. Here’s more from around the game.

  • Extending Mike Matheny (which the Cardinals did on Thursday) was a logical choice, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. The Cards have had five straight winning seasons to begin Matheny’s tenure, and his previous three-year deal would have made him a lame duck for the 2017 season. Many Cardinals fans aren’t sold on Matheny, but Hochman thinks Matheny could improve his reputation by being more open with the press, the way Joe Maddon or Terry Francona are.
  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says lefty Tyler Lyons’ knee injury is “not responding as quickly as we hoped,” via Hochman. Lyons spent the previous three seasons bouncing back and forth between the rotation and bullpen. He pitched 2016 entirely as a reliever was in the midst of a solid campaign (3.38 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 3.6 BB/9 in 48 innings) before he missed the last two months with a stress reaction. He is out of options in the spring.
  • The Padres have “some interest” in retaining Adam Rosales, Jon Jay, Clayton Richard and Edwin Jackson, but will not be extending qualifying offers to any of them, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets. That comes as no surprise, since none of them profile as the kinds of upper-echelon players who typically get qualifying offers. Nonetheless, several of them were useful for the Padres in 2016. Rosales and Jay were both solid complementary pieces — Rosales hit a surprising 13 home runs in 248 plate appearances while playing six positions, and Jay produced a fine .339 OBP, although he missed two months with a fractured forearm. Richard, too, helped after arriving as a free agent in August, posting a 2.52 ERA in 53 2/3 innings down the stretch, although with underwhelming peripherals. Of the four, only Jackson clearly struggled, with a 5.89 ERA, 6.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 in 73 1/3 innings. Jackson has voiced interest in returning to the Padres next season.
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San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Adam Rosales Clayton Richard Edwin Jackson Jon Jay Mike Matheny Tyler Lyons Yoenis Cespedes

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/5/16

By charliewilmoth | November 5, 2016 at 4:01pm CDT

Here are today’s minor moves from around the game.

  • The Astros have announced that they’ve selected the contract of Dominican lefty Reymin Guduan, preventing him from hitting minor league free agency. The 24-year-old struggled at Triple-A Fresno in 2016 and has a long history of control problems, with an extremely high career 7.1 BB/9. He did, however, have a brilliant stretch at Double-A Corpus Christi last season (with 19 strikeouts and three walks over 13 innings), and he can apparently touch 100 MPH, a very rare quality in a lefty.
  • The Pirates have announced that they’ve added righty Dovydas Neverauskas and 1B/OF Jose Osuna to their 40-man roster, protecting them from the Rule 5 Draft. In 2009, the Bucs signed Neverauskas as a 16-year-old, and he made his way through their system slowly — perhaps unsurprisingly, given that his home country of Lithuania isn’t exactly a baseball hotbed. He transitioned from starting to relieving in 2015, and emerged as a hard-throwing relief prospect in a fine 2016 season in which he represented the Bucs in the Futures Game and posted a 3.10 ERA, 8.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 58 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A. His year was sullied when he was arrested in a bar fight in Toledo in August, but the Pirates still appear to believe in his potential. The 23-year-old Osuna also spent the season at Double-A and Triple-A and held his own, hitting .279/.331/.457. He’s never had an exceptional minor league season and does not rate among the Bucs’ top prospects, but he’s been reliably productive and hit lefties very well last season.
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Royals Decline Luke Hochevar’s Option

By charliewilmoth | November 5, 2016 at 3:04pm CDT

The Royals have announced they’ve declined Luke Hochevar’s $7MM 2017 mutual option. That means they’ll owe him a $500K buyout. He is now a free agent.

The move was expected. Hochevar underwent surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome in August, and it’s unclear when he’ll be ready to return to game action. There have, however, been indications that the Royals could attempt to sign Hochevar to a cheaper deal for 2017.

Hochevar generally pitched well in 2016 when healthy, posting a 3.86 ERA, 9.2 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 37 1/3 innings. The 33-year-old former No. 1 overall pick struggled for years as a starter and missed the 2014 season after having Tommy John surgery, but he’s now had three relatively successful seasons as a hard-throwing reliever, including with the Royals’ 2015 World Series team.

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | November 5, 2016 at 1:24pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

After a fourth straight losing season, the White Sox have not revealed their organizational strategy.  Do they finally commit to a roster tear-down?  Or will the team spend another winter attempting to add the right veteran pieces to complement its talented core?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • James Shields, SP: $44MM through 2018.  Shields can opt out after 2016 World Series.  If Shields does not opt out, White Sox are responsible for $20MM for 2017-18.  Contract includes $16MM club option for 2019 with a $2MM buyout; White Sox would be responsible for buyout.
  • Melky Cabrera, LF: $15MM through 2017.
  • Jose Abreu, 1B: $34MM through 2019.  Can opt into arbitration system for 2017.
  • David Robertson, RP: $25MM through 2018.
  • Chris Sale, SP: $13MM through 2017.  Includes $12.5MM club option for 2018 with a $1MM buyout and $15MM club option for 2019 with a $1MM buyout.  2019 option increases to $16MM with Cy Young from 2016-18.
  • Jose Quintana, SP: $16.85MM through 2019.  Includes $10.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout for 2019 and $10.5MM club option for 2020 with a $1MM buyout.  2020 option can reach $13-14MM based on 2016-19 Cy Young voting.
  • Adam Eaton, RF/CF: $19.9MM through 2019.  Includes $9.5MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout for 2020 and $10.5MM club option for 2021 with a $1.5MM buyout.  2021 option can reach $13MM based on 2016-20 MVP voting.
  • Nate Jones, RP: $5.85MM through 2018.  Includes club options for 2019-21, with salaries depending on games finished and on whether Jones requires right elbow surgery by end of 2018 season.

Contract Options

  • Matt Albers, RP: $3MM club option with a $250K buyout (declined).

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; link to MLBTR projections)

  • Miguel Gonzalez (5.073) – $2.6MM
  • Todd Frazier (5.071) – $13.5MM
  • Brett Lawrie (5.055) – $5.1MM
  • Dan Jennings (3.171) – $1.2MM
  • Avisail Garcia (3.167) – $3.4MM
  • Zach Putnam (3.135) – $975K
  • Jake Petricka (3.044) – $900K
  • Jose Abreu (3.000) – $12MM (educated guess, outside of arbitration model)
  • Non-tender candidates: Lawrie, Garcia

Free Agents

  • Justin Morneau, Austin Jackson, Alex Avila, Jacob Turner (outrighted off 40-man roster)

Chicago White Sox Depth Chart; Chicago White Sox Payroll Information

In early October, Robin Ventura announced he was stepping down as White Sox manager after five seasons.  Ventura’s contract was up anyway, and it’s not clear whether the Sox had any intention of offering him a new contract.  The team almost immediately promoted bench coach Rick Renteria to manage the club, on a term that has not yet been reported.  GM Rick Hahn chose not to interview other candidates, as Renteria was atop the team’s “living document” of potential future managers.  Renteria had a difficult experience with the Cubs, managing them in a 2014 rebuilding season, doing well enough to warrant a second year, and then getting fired when Joe Maddon became available.

Rick RenteriaI don’t know if the hiring of a less experienced manager like Renteria is an indication that he will preside over a 2017 rebuild for the White Sox, as Hahn has chosen not to tip his hand on the team’s offseason direction.  Hahn did posit in August that “by the time we make our first or second transaction, publicly it will be fairly clear as to our direction.”  As White Sox fans await this odd reveal, I’ll tackle this post from each direction.

In a rebuild scenario, the team could move a host of players that clearly won’t be part of the next good White Sox team: Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, Miguel Gonzalez, David Robertson, Brett Lawrie, Avisail Garcia, and James Shields.  Frazier, 31 in February, is coming off a career-best 40 home runs and a career-worst .225 batting average.  MLBTR projects a $13.5MM salary for 2017, after which he’ll reach free agency.  The White Sox could get something useful in return, but only a handful of contenders are seeking third basemen, and the free agent market features Justin Turner and Luis Valbuena.  Cabrera is also an above-average hitter, but his value is limited by his poor defense and $15MM salary.  Robertson struggled with his control and blew seven saves on the season, but his two year, $25MM commitment would appeal to teams not willing to pay full freight for Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon.  Gonzalez bounced back as a solid back-end starter, which is hard to come by in the 2016-17 free agent market.  Lawrie, Garcia, and Shields have little to no trade value, but moving Cabrera and Robertson would clear $40MM in commitments, and trading Frazier and Gonzalez would free up $16MM+ that would have been spent on their arbitration salaries.  It seems likely that Avisail Garcia’s time with the White Sox will come to an end soon, as the 25-year-old has shown few signs of being a useful Major Leaguer after 409 career games, 356 of which came with the White Sox.

Trading players like Frazier, Cabrera, Robertson, and Gonzalez might return a handful of decent prospects and free up payroll space but would do little to change the long-term trajectory of the White Sox.  To truly reboot the franchise and try something different, Hahn and executive vice president Kenny Williams will have to entertain trades for any or all of Chris Sale, Jose Quintana, and Jose Abreu.  Sale and Quintana are immensely valuable assets.  Sale is among the ten best starters in baseball, and Quintana has to be in the top 20.  Both lefties will enter the 2017 season at just 28 years of age, with clean bills of health.  Both have extremely team-friendly contracts.  On the open market, Sale would be worth over $100MM for 2017-19 alone.  Instead, he’ll be paid $40.5MM at most.  Quintana will be paid at most $40.35MM over the next four seasons, which would also be valued over $100MM.  To top it off, there is no one remotely similar to Sale or Quintana in this year’s free agent market.

Nearly every team in baseball would have interest in Sale and Quintana.  Teams with a strong need for starting pitching this winter, like the Marlins, Braves, Astros, and Angels, would obviously be interested.  Others, who may add on the “only if it’s an ace” condition, like the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, and Yankees, would be in as well. According to an August report from Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago, the Red Sox were unwilling to part with center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. for one of the White Sox aces at the trade deadline.  That gives you an idea of a potential headliner, though – an established, five-win under-30 player who is under control for four more years.  Other centerpiece examples could include Starling Marte, George Springer, or Christian Yelich.  The White Sox could also try for less-established, but extremely valuable young players like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, or Andrew Benintendi.  The question is whether Hahn would enter the offseason hellbent on trading one or both of his aces to kick off a true rebuild, or if he’d set a price and only make the trade if that price is met.  The latter approach makes more sense, since both pitchers will still be very valuable at the July trade deadline as well as next offseason (and beyond).

In the event of a rebuild, the White Sox must also consider trading first baseman Jose Abreu, who might earn $40-45MM through arbitration over the next three seasons.  While Abreu’s power has slipped since his rookie season, he’ll turn 30 in January and has a good $20MM of surplus value in comparison to market prices for power hitters.  Teams such as the Red Sox, Orioles, Rangers, Rockies, Astros, Yankees, and Blue Jays are a few possible matches.  Right fielder Adam Eaton would have immense trade value, with five years of potential control remaining.  However, I see Eaton as a potential source of stability, someone who can anchor the roster even if the front office starts shipping out other top players.

We haven’t even mentioned Carlos Rodon, Tim Anderson, and Nate Jones yet.  Plainly, the White Sox have too many good or great players to sell most of them off in a rebuild.  Owner Jerry Reinsdorf is 80 years old.  Shouldn’t this team be going for it?  Let’s look at what that might require.

The White Sox have had Opening Day payrolls in the $115-120MM range in three of the past four seasons.  They peaked at about $128MM in 2011, so that might be the ceiling.  The Sox have about $74MM committed to eight players under contract for 2017.  Add another $19MM for Frazier, Gonzalez, Jennings, Petricka, and Putnam, and we’re at $93MM for 13 players.

First and foremost on the agenda should be a catcher.  The White Sox pretty much have to go outside the organization for a backstop.  They could sign one of Matt Wieters or Jason Castro in free agency, or trade for the Yankees’ Brian McCann.  Signing Castro to a two-year deal in the $15MM range would be a measured way to fill the void.

At second base, the White Sox must decide whether they would like to bring the perennially disappointing or injured Lawrie back for $5MM or so through arbitration.  I’d vote no, because payroll will be tight and they can plug in Tyler Saladino for a much cheaper solution while possibly getting similar production.  It seems likely that Lawrie can bring back some kind of spare part in trade prior to the non-tender deadline.  Free agent options at second base include Neil Walker, Chase Utley, and Sean Rodriguez, if the White Sox want to go that route.

Center field is one of the more obvious areas of upgrade for the White Sox.  Adam Eaton had an excellent season as the team’s primary right fielder and should probably stay there.  Dexter Fowler, a player to whom the Sox made an offer last winter, is a free agent again and remains a strong fit.  One big concern is that Fowler will come with a qualifying offer attached, meaning the Sox would have to surrender the #12 pick in the 2017 draft if they sign him.  Unless Fowler comes at a serious discount from our projected lucrative four-year contract, he’s not an ideal addition.  Ian Desmond comes with a similar concern.  Instead, the White Sox could roll the dice on Carlos Gomez, who struggled mightily for parts of the last two seasons but showed promise in about a month’s worth of time with the Rangers at the end of the season.  Gomez could sign a one-year deal for around $13MM in an attempt to rebuild value in Chicago, assuming they’re willing to tangle with agent Scott Boras.  The relationship between Boras and the White Sox has had contentious moments dating back to the 90s.  While it has softened in recent years, I don’t know if they would be able to get together on a free agent deal for players like Gomez, Wieters, or Kendrys Morales.

To balance out the lineup, the White Sox could use a left-handed designated hitter.  Call it the Justin Morneau/Adam LaRoche role.  This could be filled by a switch-hitter as well, with free agents such as Carlos Beltran and Kendrys Morales fitting the bill.  If the goal is more to find a bat that can hit right-handed pitching well, then certainly Edwin Encarnacion is worth considering.  However, a contract for Encarnacion would annihilate Abreu’s franchise record of $68MM and bust the payroll.  Even the $12-14MM types like Beltran and Morales could be excessive for this bat-only role.  Free agents who have been solid against righties over the past three years and would come with palatable price tags include Adam Lind, Luis Valbuena, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Coghlan, and Brandon Moss.  None of those acquisitions would excite White Sox fans, but a high-priced designated hitter is a poor allocation of limited payroll space.  One could argue that the White Sox are already paying good money for a pair of DH-types who are dragging down the defense, in Melky Cabrera and Jose Abreu.  Another possibility would be to pencil Cabrera in for most of the DH at-bats, plugging the hole in left field with a defensively superior addition like trade candidate Brett Gardner.

So far we’ve added three players (or player types) to fill position player holes, and it would require about $27MM in salary for 2017.  This conservative offseason approach already requires $120MM for 16 players.  Accounting for minimum salary players, it’s difficult to see room for more significant additions.  Payroll will be tight, making the $10MM owed to James Shields in 2017 all the more painful.  Attempting to dump some of Cabrera’s salary is worth considering.  Given his subpar left field defense, he’s not providing good value to the White Sox on a $15MM salary.   Still, he was an above average hitter in two of the last three seasons, so the Sox might be able to find a team to take $8MM or so of the commitment.  The problem is that the savings might have to be reallocated to a new left fielder.  Eric Thames, coming off three huge years in Korea, could be a cheap roll of the dice for a team that would need some things to break their way to reach the playoffs.

I think the White Sox would find a taker for the majority of the $25MM owed to Robertson over the next two years, though his loss would create a hole in the bullpen.  Robertson just had minor knee surgery, while Putnam had elbow surgery in August and Petricka had hip surgery in June.  A good case can be made for adding to this bullpen rather than subtracting from it.  A late-inning lefty would be a good fit, with Brett Cecil, Travis Wood, Boone Logan, Mike Dunn, and Jerry Blevins looking like the better free agents.

The White Sox look very strong in the first four rotation spots, with Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Gonzalez.  Shields, 35 in December, was brutal in 22 starts for the White Sox after being acquired in December, and his contract presents a real problem.  If not for the $22MM the Sox owe Shields over the next two years, he’d be a release candidate.  The contract might force the club to give him a look as their fifth starter heading into 2017, though cutting Shields now might be better for the team’s record.  It seems unlikely that the White Sox could bite the bullet and release Shields and also pour additional money into the rotation opening.

Most of the proposed roster solutions here have come from free agency.  In reality, Hahn will certainly look at the trade market.  The White Sox remain light on prospects, and would have to consider trading top names like Carson Fulmer, Zack Collins, Spencer Adams, or Zack Burdi to bring in Major League talent.  Trading from this group seems like digging a deeper long-term hole.

Whichever path Reinsdorf, Williams, and Hahn choose, I don’t expect a major organizational shift from the White Sox this offseason.  I can’t picture a $150MM+ payroll and a free agent megadeal or two, nor do I expect the team to clean house by trading Sale, Quintana, Abreu, and others.  This front office has taken the middle road before; perhaps there is enough talent on the roster to try it one last time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

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Red Sox To Look For Setup Man, Designated Hitter

By charliewilmoth | November 5, 2016 at 12:00pm CDT

Last offseason, the Red Sox made big moves to acquire Craig Kimbrel and David Price. This year, Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team doesn’t necessarily expect those sorts of blockbusters, Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald reports. Dombrowski does, however, have some positions in mind that the team will target.

“Last year, I thought all along that we really needed two big moves, which was a No. 1 starting pitcher and a closer,” says Dombrowski. “Those are two, I guess, what you’d consider headline moves. This winter I wouldn’t say that you put the same thought process on it. But again, you start talking to clubs, you never could tell what happens. But I would say philosophically, that’s probably the case.”

The Red Sox will have a big hole to fill at DH, given David Ortiz’s retirement, and they’ve been widely connected to Edwin Encarnacion. But Dombrowski says he remains open to the possibility that the Sox could fill the position with talent already in the organization.

“[W]e’ll just kind of wait to see what happens in David’s situation as far as filling that is concerned. Can deal with that internally, externally (too) I think,” Dombrowski says.

Signing someone like Encarnacion would be costly, of course. Red Sox president Sam Kennedy, meanwhile, says he doesn’t know what the team’s 2017 payroll will be, Drellich reports. Kennedy adds that the Red Sox will have to be “prepared” to adjust after Ortiz’s departure.

“I don’t know what’s going to happen with payroll, truthfully,” says Kennedy. “I think the consistent theme of the John Henry, Tom Werner ownership group, going all the way back to 2002, has been to not sort of set a hard and fast payroll each and every year.”

Dombrowski does say the Red Sox will look for a setup man. WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes that the team is planning to attend former Royals closer Greg Holland’s upcoming showcase. He would potentially fit the bill, although it appears there will be considerable interest from other teams as well. Bradford also suggests re-signing 41-year-old free agent Koji Uehara could be a possibility.

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Boston Red Sox Greg Holland Koji Uehara

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Yoenis Cespedes To Opt Out Of Contract With Mets

By Jeff Todd | November 5, 2016 at 11:21am CDT

NOVEMBER 5: Cespedes has officially opted out of his contract, ESPN’s Adam Rubin writes. The Mets will extend him a qualifying offer on Monday.

OCTOBER 26: Outfielder Yoenis Cespedes plans to opt out of the two remaining years on his contract with the Mets, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. His deal gave him a choice between returning to the free agent market and taking $47.5MM for two more years in New York.

The decision to opt out has been expected for quite some time — if not from the dramatic moment the contract was signed in late January, then since Cespedes completed a mostly healthy and entirely productive campaign. Certainly, it has been apparent to the team that Cespedes would test the market, of course, so his decision won’t come as a surprise when it’s made official after the World Series.

Giving Cespedes an opt-out opportunity was a critical element of the Mets’ pitch to him last winter, when he took a smaller total contract (three years, $75MM) than some other teams offered. While the desire to return to New York certainly seemed to play a role, there was plenty of financial sense in the move as well.

Taking the Mets’ offer gave Cespedes the chance to take home $27.5MM for 2016 and then re-enter the market — which, it seems, is exactly what he’ll do. Alternative arrangements would have reportedly promised him as much as $110MM, but would’ve included deferrals, covered five years, and come without an opt-out opportunity.

That gambit seems likely to pay off, as the 31-year-old posted another huge season and now looks to be the biggest free agent target in a much weaker overall group of talent than was available last year. Cespedes followed up on his monster second half run with the Mets in 2015 with a .280/.354/.530 slash and 31 home runs over 543 plate appearances.

Best of all, perhaps, Cespedes showed increased plate discipline — he posted a career-high 9.4% walk rate — without letting the selectivity sap his power. While he didn’t repeat his stellar defensive metrics, that was due in part to the fact that Cespedes was pressed into duty in center (where he has never rated well) and perhaps also to a nagging quad injury.

Importantly, New York will still be able to slap a qualifying offer on Cespedes. He’ll obviously turn that one-year, $17.2MM contract down, but in doing so will enable the Mets to pick up a draft pick if he signs with another team. A second reunion certainly can’t be ruled out after the team surprised with the first, but it seems the Mets will either need to promise more than they’d probably like to or (perhaps more likely) sit back and wait to see whether Cespedes again fails to find a suitable payday from another organization.

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New York Mets Newsstand Yoenis Cespedes

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