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Dodgers To Sign Hisashi Iwakuma

By Jeff Todd | December 7, 2015 at 9:30am CDT

DEC. 7, 9:30am: Iwakuma will land a three-year, $45MM contract, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via Twitter). That would match MLBTR’s prediction from early November.

DEC. 6, 8:45pm: There is a deal in place that is believed to be for a three-year term, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter. If that’s the case, then Los Angeles will be acquiring the age-35 through age-37 campaigns of the veteran.

7:24pm: The Dodgers are nearing agreement on a deal with free agent righty Hisashi Iwakuma, according to multiple reports. Indeed, ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden reports on Twitter that an agreement is already in place, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears it’s not yet done (Twitter link) but says other clubs think a pact will be finalized. The sides are “moving toward completion” of a contract, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter).

Possible financial terms remain unreported. Iwakuma, a client of the Wasserman Media Group, got off to a slow start and dealt with shoulder issues last year, but ended up turning in a typically excellent campaign for the Mariners. Over 129 2/3 innings, he worked to a 3.54 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9.

Remarkably enough, that’s the worst single-season earned run average the 34-year-old has compiled over a single campaign. He’s been remarkably good since coming to Seattle from Japan before the 2012 season. In 653 2/3 total MLB frames, Iwakuma has allowed just 3.17 earned runs per regulation game.

ERA estimators largely support the results. Iwakuma posted a 3.36 SIERA last year and carries a 3.33 mark over his four seasons. In addition to a sparkling 16.2% K-BB%, Iwakuma has induced groundballs on just over half of the occasions that a batter has put one of his pitches in play.

Never reliant on velocity, Iwakuma has experienced only a slow drop in fastball velocity. Last year, he averaged 88.9 mph on his fastball, down from the 90.3 he maintained back in 2012.

It is worth noting, though, that Iwakuma missed starts in each of the last two seasons. He was sidelined for about a dozen outings last year, though he obviously ended the year producing solid results from the rotation. Iwakuma has also been somewhat susceptible to the long ball, allowing a 13.8% HR/FB rate and 1.10 home runs per nine over his career.

In rating Iwakuma the 25th-best free agent available, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes predicted that he’d be able to find three years and $45MM on the open market. Aside from age, the major factor weighing down the righty’s value is the fact that a signing team will be required to part with a draft pick.

It’s easy to see why the Dodgers would be interested in the veteran. Paying a hefty average annual value won’t stress the club’s payroll much (if at all), but by adding an older player the club would be able to avoid a lengthy entanglement. Los Angeles had, of course, reportedly pursued several other high-profile pitchers only to fall short in the bidding.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets Notes: Ricco, Cespedes, Colon, Niese

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 7:30am CDT

Mets assistant GM John Ricco discussed several topics with reporters before the start of the Winter Meetings, including an update on the Mets’ pursuit of Ben Zobrist and their search for relief pitching. Here’s some more from Ricco, courtesy of ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin…

GM Sandy Alderson contacted Yoenis Cespedes’ agents as recently as a week ago, though Ricco feels “it’s unlikely right now that he ends up a Met. I think that’s fair to say. I think we will end up meeting with his agent. Right now, I still think he’s looking at a deal that would be north of what we would consider.” With little known buzz around Cespedes’ market so far this winter, ESPN’s Buster Olney recently speculated that the Mets could get involved if the outfielder’s price drops into an acceptable range for the team.
The Mets have interest in Bartolo Colon returning as a spot starter and reliever, and according to Ricco, “everything I’ve heard, he would be open to that type of role.” Ricco thinks “the door is still open with him” on another contract with New York “and I think we’ll meet with his guys out here [in Nashville]”
Ricco said the Mets “haven’t been actively shopping” Jon Niese but they’re open to any ideas for improving the roster beyond dealing any of their four top pitchers (Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Steven Matz). If Niese was traded, Ricco said that Rafael Montero or Sean Gilmartin could step into the rotation until Zack Wheeler made his projected midseason return from Tommy John surgery. If the Mets re-signed Colon, I’d also think a Niese deal would be the perfect route for Colon to get regular starts for at least half the year.

Quick Hits: Cueto, Ozuna, Gordon, Lee, Sale

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 6:43am CDT

Bryce Dixon, Johnny Cueto’s agent, tells ESPNdeportes.com’s Enrique Rojas that it was an easy call for his client to reject the six-year, $120MM contract recently offered to him by the Diamondbacks. “It was a low offer for the market,” Dixon said. “We didn’t have to think hard to reject that offer. Arizona wanted to do something fast, but we didn’t want to take something below market value for a No. 1 starter, and with the recent events, I think that time gave us the reason.” Indeed, Cueto now stands as the top arm on the market after the last week’s flurry of free agent pitching signings, and Dixon has enough leverage that he and Cueto don’t need to rush the decision. “I don’t have a specific timetable….We have some offers and we will have several meetings in Nashville, but right now I could not tell if Cueto will have a team after the conclusion of the meetings. We have plenty of time until the beginning of the season,” Dixon said.

Here’s more from around baseball, as the Winter Meetings news avalanche has already begun…

During a conference call with media (including MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro) on Thursday, Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill denied that the team was shopping either Jose Fernandez or Marcell Ozuna. Many reports have suggested that the Fish are unlikely and not really willing to deal Fernandez in absence of a stunning offer, though Ozuna has been one of the more openly talked-about trade candidates of the offseason. “Contrary to some of the myriad of rumors out there, we are not actively shopping [Ozuna],” Hill said. “Clubs are coming after him because he’s a talented player….When someone calls, we listen to see if it is something that makes sense, both in the short-term and the long-term.” While Hill could be engaging in some gamesmanship here, it’s also possible he’s being truthful, and that interest in Ozuna has been so heavy that the Marlins actually haven’t needed to make any calls about him themselves.
The Royals haven’t abandoned the idea of re-signing Alex Gordon since they’re waiting on the outfield market to become more defined, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.
First baseman Dae-ho Lee is on his way to the Winter Meetings, the Korean slugger told media (including Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News) before departing from Incheon to Nashville. Lee’s agent has informed him that “four to five teams are showing interest” in his services, and if possible, he’d like to sign with “a championship-caliber team” that can offer him regular playing time. Lee has put up big power numbers over career in KBO and NPB, though he is coming to North American at a rather advanced age (33) for a first-time player. In opting out of his contract with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, Lee walked away from 600 million yen (or roughly $4.9MM) for the 2016 season, Yoo notes on Twitter.
Yoo’s piece also notes that Lee is represented by both the Seoul-based Montis Sports Management Group and the MVP Sports Group.
Chris Sale’s contract is often cited as one of the most team-friendly in the sport, and though it’s been even more dwarfed by this winter’s giant pitcher contracts, the White Sox ace tells MLB.com’s Scott Merkin that he has no regrets about his early-career extension. “I knew exactly what I was getting into at the time I was getting into it, and I could not have asked for anything more,” Sale said, also noting that he thinks “to just keep playing the game as a kid and not have to worry about the business side, I think it has done me a lot of good.” Sale’s extension guaranteed him $32.5MM from 2013-17, and Chicago has club options on the left-hander for 2018 and 2019 that could add another $26MM to the deal.

NL Central Notes: Castro, Montero, Kazmir, Walker, Lucroy

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 5:47am CDT

With the Cubs contending and enjoying skyrocketing revenues, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times wonders why these added resources haven’t translated to extra payroll for the baseball operations department. It’s possible payroll won’t truly rise to the level of other big-market teams until the Cubs renegotiate their next TV contract, which is due to expire in four years. With revenues booming, Wittenmyer reports that president of business operations Crane Kenney has signed a contract extension that will keep him with the organization through at least the 2020 season. Here’s some more from around the NL Central…

Starlin Castro was told after the season that he wouldn’t be traded, Wittenmyer reports, as the Cubs believe him to be a major building block for their 2016 roster. Castro’s name has swirled in trade rumors for the last two years, most recently in discussions with the Yankees for Brett Gardner just a few weeks ago. If the Cubs indeed do plan to keep Castro (barring an unexpectedly great offer, of course), that would seem to make Jorge Soler the team’s top trade chip among position players.
Miguel Montero could also be a trade candidate, as Wittenmyer hears from a source that the team is now considering the possibility of moving the catcher to free payroll space. Moving the $28MM remaining on Montero’s deal through 2017 could save enough money for the team to make a big-ticket splurge on the likes of a Jason Heyward. The issue with dealing Montero is that it leaves the Cubs very thin at catcher, as the slugging Kyle Schwarber is still very much a work in progress behind the plate.
While the Pirates have been interested in Scott Kazmir in the past, Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (Twitter link) believes the rising costs of free agent pitching will put the lefty out of the Bucs’ price range.
In another tweet from Biertempfel, he hears that the Mets and Orioles “still have at least lukewarm interest” in Neil Walker. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have discussed Walker “off and on” during the winter, while New York is a new player in connection with Walker’s services. The Mets are likely to have a hole at second base with Daniel Murphy’s departure, though Walker’s MLBTR-projected $10.7MM salary in arbitration may be as much of an issue for the budget-conscious Mets as it is for the Pirates.
The Rangers have shown interest in Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. The Brewers are receiving “plenty of action” on Lucroy from several teams but it would take a huge offer to entice Milwaukee to part with the former All-Star.
From that same piece, Haudricourt opines that it would make sense for the Brewers to trade Jean Segura sooner rather than later. Dealing Segura would open the door for prospect Oswaldo Arcia at the shortstop, and the Crew could use Jonathan Villar and Yadiel Rivera at short until Arcia was ready for the majors. That said, Haudricourt feels Adam Lind is the far more likely Brewer to be dealt during the Winter Meetings.

Duquette On Davis, Matusz, Walker

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 5:07am CDT

Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette spoke to the media (including Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun and MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko) on the eve of the Winter Meetings, and here are some of the highlights…

Duquette didn’t have much of an update on the Orioles’ talks with Chris Davis, only to say that the team is still involved since “I don’t know what the other teams’ market is for him.” As Kubatko put it, there are several baseball people at the Winter Meetings “wondering if the Orioles are the frontrunners by default.” Baltimore has been the only team clearly linked to Davis thus far, though the Cardinals and Red Sox have both been rumored to have at least some interest.
The Orioles’ shopping list includes an outfielder and Duquette said the team would prefer to add a left-handed hitter to help balance the lineup. As expected, Duquette didn’t comment on specific free agents, such as when he was asked about Baltimore’s rumored interest in Alex Gordon. “He’s a free agent, right? He’s a left-handed hitter. There’s some good players on that market that are outfielders. There’s some good players there,” Duquette said.
The bullpen is also a need area, and Duquette didn’t comment on how close the O’s were to any sort of final agreement with Darren O’Day.
Duquette also said that “ideally” the team would add some lefty balance to both the lineup and the pitching staff, though the Orioles would “be OK with five righties” in the rotation. If the O’s don’t have a left-handed starter by Spring Training, Duquette said the team could consider moving Brian Matusz back to the rotation since the southpaw usually stretches out in the spring in order to work on all of his pitches. Matusz struggled as a starter over his first four MLB seasons before reviving his career as a very effective lefty specialist out of the bullpen since 2013.
First base prospect Christian Walker is receiving “quite a bit of interest” from other teams. Walker has hit .280/.348/.453 with 57 homers over 1723 PA in the minors, though he has only a .751 OPS at the Triple-A level, something Duquette believed could be due to Triple-A Norfolk’s large ballpark. Baseball America ranked him as the third-best prospect in Baltimore’s system prior to the 2015 season.

Kenta Maeda Joins Wasserman Media Group

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 4:25am CDT

Right-hander Kenta Maeda has hired Adam Katz of the Wasserman Media Group (WMG) to represent him in talks with MLB teams, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports. Maeda will soon be posted by the Hiroshima Carp and free to negotiate with any Major League club who meets the $20MM posting fee.

MLBTR ranked Maeda 14th on our list of the top 50 free agents in terms of earning power, predicting he would land a five-year, $60MM contract (on top of the $20MM posting fee his chosen team would pay Hiroshima). Given how so many top pitchers have already been signed to higher-than-expected prices, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Maeda’s eventual contract exceed our prediction by a healthy margin. Maeda was already expected to draw a healthy amount of interest, and the rapidly-thinning number of free agent aces will only intensify his market.

Maeda joins such stars as Giancarlo Stanton, Nolan Arenado, Yasiel Puig, Hanley Ramirez, Kendrys Morales and Jeff Samardzija in the WMG fold, to name just a few of the dozens of players represented by the agency. The client list also contains some very prominent Japanese talents, including Hisashi Iwakuma and Hideki Matsui.

For information on more than 2,000 Major League and minor league players, check out MLBTR’s Agency Database. If you see any notable omissions or errors, please let us know via email: mlbtrdatabase@gmail.com.

NL West Notes: Kemp, Ross, Greinke, D’Backs, Gallardo

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 4:03am CDT

The Padres have been shopping Matt Kemp and asking about shortstops, sources from rival teams tell Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune (Twitter link). The Padres “may be reluctant to eat a lot of money” in such a deal, which could make things tricky given Kemp’s poor 2015 season and the $72MM owed to him through 2019. It isn’t clear if San Diego would be willing to attach highly sought-after righty Tyson Ross to Kemp, which FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal speculated about last month as a way to entice a club into taking Kemp off the Padres’ hands. Here’s some more from around the NL West…

The Diamondbacks’ surprising signing of Zack Greinke was conceived and concluded in under 12 hours, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. GM Dave Stewart tells Nightengale that the club had only discussing Greinke “in passing” before owner Ken Kendrick and president Derrick Hall gave Stewart the go-ahead on Friday morning.
With so much committed to Greinke, however, the Diamondbacks are already pushing the limits of their payroll, a source tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The team is thus looking at trades to further bolster its pitching, rather than free agent signings. As such, Piecoro reports in a tweet that D’Backs people aren’t too optimistic about their chances of signing Mike Leake.
One rival executive thinks the Diamondbacks will be busy at the Winter Meetings, telling Piecoro that “If they’re going to sign Greinke, I would expect them to try to go get more.”
The Dodgers are expected to meet with Yovani Gallardo’s agents during the Winter Meetings, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo tweets, and the free agent righty could be a plan-B option for L.A. after missing out on other pitching targets. The Dodgers are on the verge of landing one new arm, as they’re close to an agreement with Hisashi Iwakuma.
The Rockies are “open-minded” about trading outfielders like Carlos Gonzalez or Charlie Blackmon, sources tell FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).

Bullpen Notes: Chapman, Gott, Albers, Blevins

By Mark Polishuk | December 7, 2015 at 3:29am CDT

It’s been a huge day for reliever signings, as Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Mark Lowe and (probably) Darren O’Day all reaching agreements on new contracts. If that wasn’t enough, the Dodgers and Reds are also discussing an Aroldis Chapman trade, so the biggest bullpen trade chip of them all could also soon be off the table. Here’s some news on the relievers who have left the market, some who remain, and yet others who could be on the trading block…

The Nationals continue to have interest in trading for Chapman but are wary about the prospect cost, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson writes. There’s also the difficulty involved in trading current closer Jonathan Papelbon, and Papelbon’s grievance against the Nats is just the latest in several obstacles that will make it hard for Washington to find a taker for the controversial righty.
The Angels are getting interest in right-hander Trevor Gott, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter link). The Halos want a player of similar value in return. Gott made his MLB debut in 2015 and posted a 3.02 ERA, 5.1 K/9 and 1.69 K/BB rate over 47 2/3 innings. Owner of a 96.2mph fastball, Gott posted much higher strikeout totals over his three minor league seasons and is controlled through the 2021 season.
Righty Matt Albers has received interest from multiple teams, Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports (Twitter link). Albers missed most of 2014 due to shoulder problems and signed a minor league deal with the White Sox last winter, only to miss quite a bit of time after fracturing his pinkie during a bench-clearing brawl with the Royals in April. Still, Albers ended up posting a very impressive 1.21 ERA, 6.8 K/9 and 3.11 K/BB rate over 37 1/3 innings with Chicago last year.
Yakult Swallows right-hander Tony Barnette didn’t reach a deal with any of the five teams who met his $500K posting fee, according to a story from the Sanspo news outlet (hat tip to NPBTracker’s Patrick Newman for his translating tweets). Barnette is set to return to Yakult, though there’s a chance the Japanese team could allow him to pursue a deal with a Major League team anyway.
The Mets will meet with lefty Jerry Blevins’ agent during the Winter Meetings, ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reports. Assistant GM John Ricco confirmed the club’s interest in re-signing Blevins and expects it will take a Major League contract to get the veteran southpaw back in the fold. Blevins pitched only five innings for the Mets in 2015 as a result of two forearm fractures — one from a line drive, and another suffered while slipping off a curb.
In another piece from Rubin, he hears from Ricco that the Mets weren’t in on O’Day or Madson due to their high price tags. “We didn’t see ourselves playing in that top end where O’Day was,” Ricco said. “But I think that next tier, we’re going to be keeping an eye on….We’re going to meet with a lot of the representatives for the relievers here over the next couple of days.”
Part of the reason the Athletics agreed to a deal with Madson was because they can’t afford to land any of the top free agent hitters and thus have to “spend money where they can,” according to Rosenthal on Twitter. The A’s are also still looking at more starting pitching as well, as evidenced by earlier reports of their interest in Scott Kazmir.
Before signing Lowe, the Tigers made one more try for Soria but talks went nowhere, MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets. The Pirates, another of Soria’s former teams, didn’t have any interest in re-signing him since the club prefers to build low-cost bullpens, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette tweets. The Blue Jays looked into Soria in the name of “checking options,” a source tells Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith, but Toronto wasn’t seriously interested.

Tigers Nearing Two-Year Deal With Mark Lowe

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2015 at 10:33pm CDT

The Tigers are nearing a two-year pact with free agent righty Mark Lowe, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. Lowe is represented by Frye McCann Sports.

Lowe, 32, jump started his career with a stellar 2015 season. After joining the Mariners on a minor league deal, he put up one of the most dominating pitching lines of the season’s first half, tossing 36 frames of 1.00 ERA pitching with 11.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. That led to a mid-season trade that sent Lowe to the Blue Jays in exchange for a trio of young pitchers.

While he wasn’t quite as excellent in Toronto, Lowe was still quite an effective reliever down the stretch. He allowed eight earned runs while striking out 14 and allowing just one walk in his 19 innings. Lowe went on to permit two earned in his 4 1/3 postseason frames.

Lowe’s success was attributed, at least in part, to a revived fastball. He averaged over 95 mph with the heater on the year, a mark he hadn’t reached since way back in 2011. That was also the last season in which Lowe topped forty big league innings prior to 2015. As Eno Sarris of Fangraphs explained at the time of the trade, the emergence of Lowe’s fastball also helped him post stellar results with his slider. All told, Lowe ended the year with a career-best 14.1% swinging strike rate.

For Detroit, Lowe would presumably factor in the setup mix in front of recently-added closer Francisco Rodriguez. New general manager Al Avila has already added significant arms to both the rotation and then pen in advance of the Winter Meetings, along with an outfield option in Cameron Maybin, and Lowe could wrap up most of the team’s highest-priority business.

Mets Willing To Give Ben Zobrist Four-Year Deal; Others Still In Mix

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2015 at 10:19pm CDT

10:13pm: Zobrist’s priority is to play for a winning club, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, leaving the Braves “behind” in the race.

Meanwhile, Mets assistant GM John Ricco acknowledged today that the club has serious interest, as ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports. “We’ve had conversations with his guys,” said Ricco of Zobrist, “and we’ll definitely be meeting with them [at the Winter Meetings].” He added: “It’s pretty obvious we think he’s a fit.”

New York expects a decision to be made in the coming days, though it hasn’t apparently been given any such assurances by Zobrist’s camp. The club is “not sure … which direction [it] would go” if Zobrist heads elsewhere, Ricco said. He notes that the Mets haven’t ruled out Daniel Murphy and acknowledged that the team has “touched base” with “all of the free agents,” including middle infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, who Chris Cotillo of SB Nation reported (Twitter link) could be an option.

7:57pm: More than one team is willing to guarantee four seasons in a contract with free agent super-utilityman Ben Zobrist, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). The Mets are one such club, per the report, which indicates that there are others as well.

Other teams in the mix include the Mets, Nationals, Giants, and a “mystery team,” Heyman says. Earlier today, Marc Carig of Newsday reported (Twitter links) that six clubs remained involved with Zobrist to some extent.

Zobrist wrapped up his on-site visits with a trip to the Giants’ AT&T Park today, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has learned. And the hotly-pursued veteran appears to be lined up for a decision in the coming days, as Carig adds.

But that doesn’t mean he’s done with meetings. Indeed, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweeted earlier today that Zobrist would meet with representatives of the Nationals at the Winter Meetings — which are being held in his home town of Nashville. And it stands to reason that he’ll have cause to chat with other organizations as well.

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