Poll: How Much Will Yoenis Cespedes Get?
The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.
In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?
Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.
So, here’s your chance to weigh in:
What Overall Guarantee Is Yoenis Cespedes Most Likely To Land?
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$90MM to $120MM 46% (6,732)
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$60MM to $90MM 20% (2,979)
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$120MM to $150MM 19% (2,736)
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$30MM to $60MM 6% (839)
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$10MM to $30MM 5% (759)
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$150MM to $180MM 3% (502)
Total votes: 14,547
AL Notes: Rays, A’s, Jays, O’s
The Rays won an important political battle late last week in the St. Petersburg City Council, as Charlie Frago of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Under the deal that the council approved, the ballclub will have the opportunity to explore possible stadium sites in two neighboring counties for the next three years. Team owner Stuart Sternberg suggested that there’s no plan in place for a new location. “We haven’t done it before,” he said. “I don’t know if it takes a week or six months to identify and figure out a site.” But the organization made clear that it is aiming for something more than bare function. “We want to build the first of the next generation of baseball stadiums,” said president Brian Auld.
- In other stadium news, Athletics majority owner John Fisher is said to be more involved than usual as his club considers possibilities for a new park, as Phil Matier and Andy Ross of the San Francisco Chronicle report. While managing partner Lew Wolff has traditionally been the public face of ownership, Fisher is believed to control 80% of the shares.
- Change continues to filter through the Blue Jays organization, which has recently announced two front office hirings. Mike Murov will come over from the Red Sox to serve as the director of baseball operations, in which role (says the team) he’ll “assist in the preparation and analysis of financial, statistical, and contractual information, coordinating contract negotiation and arbitration preparation.” And Toronto also recently added Gil Kim to their organization as well. Formerly the international scouting director for the Rangers, Kim will serve as the Jays’ director of player development.
- The Orioles have given a promotion to the head of their analytics department, Sarah Gelles, as David Laurila of Fangraphs discusses (among other things) in his Sunday notes column. Now the organization’s Director of Analytics and Major League Contracts, Gelles discusses the development of the club’s analytical efforts, which she helped drive as an intern working for now-Phillies GM Matt Klentak.
Minor MLB Transactions: 1/17/16
We’ll track the day’s minor moves right here:
- The Cubs have re-signed infielder Logan Watkins on a minor league pact, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports on Twitter. He missed the 2015 campaign with an Achilles injury, but appears to be back to full heath now, per the report. Watkins, 26, saw brief duty in the majors over 2013-14. He spent most of his time in those years at Triple-A, putting up a cumulative .249/.330/.372 slash over 840 plate appearances while contributing 33 stolen bases.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: D’Backs, Dodgers, Yanks
Here’s the latest chatter from blogs around the game:
- Inside the ‘Zona puts a price on the D’Backs win-now efforts.
- Chin Music looks at the depth added to the Dodgers’ rotation.
- Gardy Goes Yardy says the Yankees could learn something from the Dodgers.
- Outside Pitch looks at the importance of the Yankees’ bench.
- Jays Journal breaks down some rotation scenarios for the Jays.
- Jays From The Couch thinks Toronto should try to sign Justin Upton.
- Same Page Team argues that the Blue Jays did well in acquiring Drew Storen.
- Sports Journal wonders whether Derek Jeter can get a unanimous HOF vote.
- Puckett’s Pond looks at John Ryan Murphy as a breakout candidate.
- Pirates Breakdown takes a close look at new Bucs’ starter Jon Niese.
- Big Three Sports provides evidence of Evan Gattis‘s triples.
Please send submissions to Zach Links at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
Quick Hits: Cespedes, Upton, Rays, Rockies
Here’s the latest from around the league:
- With Chris Davis off the board, Ken Davidoff of the New York Post looks at the market for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. While Davidoff runs through five of Cespedes’ top suitors, he ultimately concludes that none of them are a perfect fit to offer Cespedes his asking price. Budget or an unwillingness to spend on a right-handed outfielder are barriers with most of the obvious matches. The Tigers are a reasonable dark horse candidate for Cespedes (or Justin Upton) due to owner Mike Illich’s penchant for surprise blockbusters. With his market seemingly growing stale, I wonder if a team like the Phillies could be baited into a bid. They have the money and wouldn’t have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. Preposterous? Probably.
- The 2016-2017 free agent pool is thin in the outfield, making a one-year deal a viable option for Cespedes and Upton, writes AJ Cassavell of MLB.com. Carlos Gomez and Jose Bautista are the top names available, although either player could be re-signed. After the top pair, the market thins out dramatically. Re-entering the market strikes me as an unnecessary risk for Cespedes and Upton. Both players had strong, healthy platform seasons. Cespedes in particular stands to lose out if he’s impatient. He isn’t tied to a qualifying offer, and it’s hard to imagine him improving upon a 6.7 WAR season.
- Speaking of dark horse buyers, the Rays could jump in the market for a player like Upton, Ian Desmond, Pedro Alvarez, or Steve Pearce, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The Rays are still shopping their starting pitching, but the well-stocked free agent market may prove too tempting. Any free agent addition would require require owner Stuart Sternberg’s approval, but he’s been on board with opportunistic additions in the past. Topkin also lists Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, and David Murphy as possible fits. The club would like to get out from under some of the $8MM owed to James Loney.
- The Rockies have three obvious issues, writes Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The outfield is crowded by the addition of Gerardo Parra. The club seemingly would like to trade one or more of Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, presumably to solve their second problem – a lack of pitching depth and talent. The players themselves ask if Saunders if the Rockies will acquire pitching. So far, they’ve sat out the free agent market. The Rays are the most obvious sellers in the trade market. Last but not least, Jose Reyes‘ future with the club is completely uncertain. He played poorly after joining the Rockies and currently faces criminal charges and possible jail time in relation to domestic abuse charges. He’s also a suspension candidate under the league’s new domestic violence policy.
More Reactions To And Effects Of The Chris Davis Deal
Earlier today, we collected a series of reactions to the Orioles’ big re-signing of Chris Davis to a franchise record seven-year, $161MM contract. Here are a few more takes that have piled up throughout the day.
- The re-signing of Davis is a huge boost to the O’s lineup, writes Richard Justice of MLB.com. It’s about more than his ability to bash 40 to 50 home runs. Davis is among the leaders in hard hit rate as measured by FanGraphs. That was also true in his highly effective 2013 campaign. Hard hit rate not only improves a hitter’s chance to hit a home run, it also help other balls in play to fall. Justice would like the club to find another bat – perhaps Yoenis Cespedes – to support the middle of the lineup. The Orioles were also tied to the Rockies glut of left-handed outfielders. Either Charlie Blackmon or Corey Dickerson would represent a monetarily affordable alternative to add lineup depth.
- Re-signing Davis was about continuity too, writes Eduardo A Encina of the Baltimore Sun. The O’s have built a good clubhouse culture under manager Buck Showalter. He said, “I think the other thing that [this signing] represents is the continuity we’ve established with our coaching staff and players.” The front office did grow frustrated in their negotiations and nearly walked away as recently as last Thursday. Angelos made one final offer on Friday night, and talks quickly gained momentum. Encina goes on to say Baltimore’s pursuit of Cespedes is over now unless he’s willing to take a two-year deal.
- Give owner Peter Angelos credit, writes Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. As has long been reported, he was the driving force in keeping negotiations with Davis alive. While the lineup looks better with Davis, the club still has work to do before finalizing the roster. In particular, Dan Duquette may need to chase pitching on the trade market. Few teams are marketing starters at the moment, with the Rays as the most vocal sellers.
- Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs wonders if Angelos was willing to accept a higher team budget if Davis re-signed. We often assume teams have relatively fixed budgets, but the reality of the matter is that they can be player dependent. In Angelos’ mind, a team with Davis on the roster might be worth a larger investment than a team with another slugger. It’s tempting to say that the Orioles could have signed X, Y, and Z with that $161MM, but maybe the alternative only involved $90MM to spend.
NL Central Notes: Cubs, Epstein, Cardinals, Pirates
The Cubs are eyeing their own television network for when their current deal expires in 2020, writes Jesse Rogers of ESPN. If the team goes the route of running their own network, they could launch something as soon as 2018. For now they continue to talk to outside suitors. President of business operations Crane Kenney said, “as we have conversations, which are ongoing, if someone offers us something dramatically better we’ll look at it.” He also noted that ongoing issues in the cable universe would be monitored.
Here’s more from the NL Central:
- Theo Epstein sees himself “staying in the exact same role for a long time,” reports Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Epstein’s contract with the Cubs expires after the 2016 season, but it doesn’t sound as though there’s any chance he’ll go elsewhere. Notably, ace pitcher Jake Arrieta is the club’s only unsigned arbitration player. Per Epstein, “I’m more worried about the team. Honestly, I want to take care of the players first, and then we’ll go from there.” Reading between the lines, it sounds like owner Tom Ricketts and Epstein may resolve their talks once Arrieta’s contract is finalized.
- The Cardinals hope catcher Yadier Molina will be available for Opening Day, but they’re hunting for backups just in case, writes Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Molina had a setback recovering from a thumb injury which has put his early season status in jeopardy. The team does have reliable backup Brayan Pena on the roster, but the only other catcher on the 40-man is minor leaguer Mike Ohlman.
- Jon Niese could be Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage‘s next project, writes Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Searage has developed a reputation as a pitching “wizard” after working with Francisco Liriano, Edinson Volquez, J.A. Happ, and others. The Pirates have benefited greatly from Searage’s tutelage as they’ve maximized the value of their buy-low trades and free agent pitching contracts. I’d add that Juan Nicasio is another reclamation project to watch.
Prospect Notes: High Schoolers, Perez, Astros
The NCAA has voted to allow high school players to use an agent when negotiating with major league teams, writes Teddy Cahill of Baseball America. Previously, the use of an agent could qualify a player as a professional and invalidate his NCAA eligibility or result in a suspension. For now, the rule applies to five major conferences. Other D-I conferences have the option to opt in. As you may expect, high school players must end their relationship with the agent if they opt to attend college. A few more conditions apply.
The previous rule that banned player-agent relationships was most recently in the news in early 2014 when the Phillies accused fifth-round pick Ben Wetzler of using an agent. Wetzler did not sign with the Phillies and was subsequently banned for 20 percent of his senior season. While the new rule will help high school players in a similar situation, it would not have saved Wetzler. Drafted college juniors are still disallowed from using an agent.
- Shortstop Delvin Perez is the best prospect in Puerto Rico and a legitimate option as the top player in the draft, writes Keith Law of ESPN. The 17-year-old headlines a group of several top Puerto Rican prospect. Law cites 70 grade speed on the 20-80 scouting scale to go with a plus arm, hands, and raw power. He should eventually hit for average too, although he currently has trouble with offspeed stuff. Astros shortstop Carlos Correa is the most recent 17-year-old top prospect out of Puerto Rico. Perez is a faster player with better defensive ability, but he lacks Correa’s polish. Instead, Law compares him to Byron Buxton and Justin Upton, both of whom were considered raw, elite talents when drafted. For those keeping track at home, the Phillies hold the first overall pick.
- Law also has notes on other notable Puerto Ricans. Of those he profiled, he seems most enamored with Jose Miranda, citing great bat speed, some power, and a need for more polish. He’s currently a shortstop with a chance to stick at the position, but Law sees him as a better fit for second or third base.
- Since 2012, the Astros have the best minor league winning percentage, writes J.J. Cooper of Baseball America. Incidentally, that window corresponds with GM Jeff Luhnow’s tenure. The club does well to reward its minor league affiliates, including rings and big team dinners when they win a championship. First base prospect Tyler White offers an interesting anecdote – he’s won a championship in High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A over the last three seasons. The winning culture not only means the club has a talented bunch of minor leaguers, it’s also good for player development.
Reactions To And Effects Of The Ian Kennedy Deal
While not the largest deal of the day, Ian Kennedy signed a sizable five-year, $70MM contract to pitch for the Royals. The deal includes an opt out after the 2017 season. The social media reaction has been largely negative, but there’s usually another layer to the onion. Here are some of the reactions from around the web.
- Kennedy was a replacement level pitcher in two of the last three seasons, writes August Fagerstrom of FanGraphs. While it’s fair to expect Kennedy to be slightly above average, it’s hard to overlook those two ugly campaigns. Based on the assumption that Kennedy is slightly better than a two win player now, Fagerstrom estimates a $51MM contract as “fair” over a five-year term. That’s not including the qualifying offer. Fagerstrom also cautions to consider the complete picture. The 24th overall pick may not have held much value to a club with a two-year window. The Royals were also in desperate need of a reliable starting pitcher. Kennedy should offer more certainty than cheaper options on the market like Doug Fister.
- The Royals are betting they signed the good version of Kennedy, writes Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. GM Dayton Moore and agent Scott Boras have worked together on such players as Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Luke Hochevar, and Kendrys Morales. All four players are controlled through 2017 – either through arbitration, contract, or club option. Boras could point to that window of contention as a reason to sign Kennedy.
- Mark Townsend of Yahoo also highlights the club’s short term window. While he agrees with the general sentiment that the Royals overpaid for Kennedy, he also notes that the two-year opt out is a good fit for the Royals. With several core players hitting free agency after 2017, the team will find it difficult to continue contending. If Kennedy pitches well, he can secure another multi-year deal with a different team. If he pitches poorly, the Royals can rebuild around his bad contract. It’s a risky gamble, but one that makes sense for Kansas City.
- The Royals outfield defense should be of immense help to Kennedy, suggests CBS. His former club, the Padres, featured one of the worst outfield defenses in baseball while the Royals will return one of the very best units. The swing in value should allow Kennedy to cut down on extra base hits. He may also improve his lofty 17% HR/FB ratio in his new home park (although Petco Park is also homer suppressant)
Blue Jays Notes: Donaldson, Arbitration, Shapiro
Here are a couple quick notes from out of Toronto:
- The Blue Jays’ exchange of arbitration figures with MVP Josh Donaldson on Friday is a source of concern, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca writes. Next offseason, the Jays will face the potential free agency of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, R.A. Dickey and several other key players, and they’ll need to remake themselves around Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin. Their farm system is relatively weak in the upper levels after their midseason trades last year, too, so they’ll have to supplement that core without much initial help from their farm system. Arbitration hearings can be contentious, and the Jays already took Donaldson to arbitration once last winter. Davidi feels it therefore seems a bit worrisome that they’re apparently set to do it again, even though the difference between their filing numbers ($11.8MM versus $11.35MM) is only $450K. On the other hand, the Jays already have about $130MM committed to their big-league payroll in 2016, and need all the payroll space they can get, not only for the coming season, but for the future, when they’ll have to handle replacing or re-signing their long list of players who are eligible for free agency.
- New Jays president Mark Shapiro is not “Darth Vader,” he tells Brendan Kennedy of the Star in a lengthy profile. Jays fans haven’t exactly warmed to Shapiro, whose arrival helped lead to the departure of GM Alex Anthopoulos, who had just helped build the Jays’ exciting 2015 team. “It’s not consistent with who I’ve been for 24 years,” Shapiro says of certain aspects of his current reputation in Toronto. “I’ve got a pretty good track record of who I am as a person and who I am as a leader. So it’s a little strange to all of a sudden go from a guy who was considered to be a nice guy to a guy who’s Darth Vader.”