The Remaining Free Agent Market For Starters
It seems hard to believe that there’s anything left on the starting pitching market given the number of major signings we’ve already seen, but that’s mostly a reflection of the deep and talented free agent pool this offseason. Over $1B has already been spent on rotation arms, but there’s still plenty of interesting names left.
With pitchers (and catchers) set to report in about a month, here’s an overview of what remains on the open market for teams looking to add to their starting staff:
Best Available
- Yovani Gallardo — He entered the winter with similar expectations to Ian Kennedy, bested him handily in a recent poll here at MLBTR, and then watched as Kennedy landed $70MM with an opt-out. There still seems to be plenty of interest in the veteran righty, though, and teams looking for a steady veteran arm may not have any better options.
Bounceback Candidates
- Doug Fister — Though he seemed like a classic free agent who’d look for one year to re-establish value, the towering hurler is hoping for a two-year deal and could still be a great value.
- Mat Latos — While he still has plenty of upside, especially given his age, Latos had a roller-coaster 2015 and comes with real reputation issues. Last we heard, there are at least a handful of teams with interest.
- Kyle Lohse — He struggled badly in 2015, but his swinging strike rate was on the rise and he posted an atypically-high (for him) .314 BABIP and 15.3% HR/FB rate. And it’s hard to completely ignore the four-year run of success that preceded last year.
- Alfredo Simon — He could be classed more as a swingman candidate, since his sudden success as a starter in 2014 looks like an isolated phenomenon, but Simon said he battled a knee injury last year and might still be viewed as a potential candidate to return to his ’14 form — with the downside of going back to being a solid reliever — though his market has been quiet.
Rehabbers
- Bronson Arroyo — Was as durable as they came until he wasn’t, but still seems a reasonably likely candidate to fill some innings for some time to come.
- Chad Billingsley — Struggled in 2015 and ended with yet more injuries, but is still just 31 years old.
- Josh Johnson — Likely out for all of 2016 with Tommy John surgery, he is still young enough (he’ll soon turn 32) that a club could sign him to some form of deal that would allow him to rehab in hopes of a 2017 return.
- Cliff Lee — All indications are he’ll require a fairly significant contract to give it another go. While that’s tough to do with a 37-year-old who just tried to rest and rehab a flexor strain, most such pitchers don’t have Lee’s lengthy record of dominance, which stretched into the 2014 season.
- Tim Lincecum — Most pitchers also don’t have Lincecum’s track record, either, and he’s much younger (31). But he’s also much further removed from dominance. Still, the promise of a rebound after recent hip surgery will lead to interest.
- Cory Luebke — He hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2012, but will be an interesting rehabilitation project entering his age-31 campaign.
- Justin Masterson — Despite failing to make good on his make-good deal last year, he’s drawing interest and is expected to be ready to go this spring as he tries to bounce back from shoulder surgery.
- Mike Minor — Shoulder issues have been a major problem for Minor, who seemed headed for an arbitration tender from the Braves until he suffered a setback. But he only just turned 28, has another year of arb control, and has shown his share of promise in the majors.
Veteran Innings
- Chris Capuano — Struggled last year while being repeatedly designated, outrighted, and re-added to the 40-man by the Yankees, but still gets double-digit swinging strike rates.
- Aaron Harang — Didn’t follow up on a stellar 2014 as injuries intervened, and may yet retire, but would be an intriguing piece for the right team.
- Shaun Marcum — Had good results last year at Triple-A and built up some innings after a long layoff.
- Wandy Rodriguez — Ate some frames for the Rangers at a time when they really needed it, drew serviceable ratings from advanced metrics, and could be a useful depth piece.
- Eric Stults — Last year was tough, but he’s been useful and posted some sturdy innings tallies in recent years.
- Randy Wolf — Didn’t have much of a big league opportunity in 2015, but posted a 2.58 ERA in 139 2/3 Triple-A frames.
- Jerome Williams — Might be tough to find a rotation job out of camp, but he’s still a steady and respected veteran who’ll have interest.
Wild Cards
- Joe Blanton — Suddenly blossomed into an ace reliever and teams may see more value in plugging him into the pen. He’s reportedly drawing strong interest, though his market has been quiet of late.
- Mark Buehrle — Indications are he’s going to retire, and probably would only consider a limited number of teams if he returns, but would be quite an interesting target if he decides to play.
Quick Hits: NL DH, Moss, Adams, Blue Jays, Prospects
There’s “more momentum” growing towards the designated hitter rule being adopted by the National League, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak tells reporters, including Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The issue has been more heavily discussed in front offices and ownership levels within “the past year…I’m not suggesting you’re going to see a change but I definitely think the momentum (has changed),” Mozeliak said, noting that he doubts the DH would be implemented by 2017 in concert with the new collective bargaining agreement. ESPN’s Buster Olney also explores the issue in his latest subscription-only column, noting that adding the DH to the NL could increase offense and cut down on pitcher injuries. While there are some pros, however, Olney personally hates the idea of losing the extra layer of strategy and roster management that comes with having a pitcher in the lineup. Here’s some more from around baseball…
- Also from Olney’s column, he gives his take on the Chris Davis and Ian Kennedy signings. He calls the Davis contract a “win-win” for both the slugger and the Orioles, as Davis still found a huge guarantee and the O’s got a much-needed big bat. As for Kennedy, the signing makes sense for several reasons for K.C., including that the Royals moved to add attainable pitching now since next year’s free agent pitching crop is so thin.
- Brandon Moss and Matt Adams both have something to prove after down years in 2015, as Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch looks at how the two Cardinals sluggers are looking to rebound and bring some much-needed pop to the Cards’ lineup. There was some thought that Moss could even be non-tendered given his poor season and big arbitration price tag (he and the Cards avoided arb with a one-year, $8.25MM deal) but Mozeliak tells Hummel that the team feels confident that Moss will be healthier now that he’s more recovered from hip surgery.
- The Blue Jays have eight players who will be free agents after the 2016 season, including such major names as Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Cecil, Drew Storen and R.A. Dickey. Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star opines that the club needs to re-sign at least some of these players (and/or Josh Donaldson) to extensions to demonstrate that ownership is committed to winning and to win back fans disappointed by the Jays’ offseason moves. The extra revenue generated by Toronto’s playoff run hasn’t been reflected by any raise in payroll, leading Griffin to wonder if the divide between ex-GM Alex Anthopoulos and the Rogers Communications ownership group perhaps stemmed from Anthopoulos’ desire to go for it in 2016 while Rogers was “more fixated on the [U.S./Canadian dollar] exchange rate and the bottom line.”
- In a recent appearance on the MLB Network, Baseball America’s Ben Badler (video link available) discusses the Cuban market, including the most recent high-profile signings, some big new talents like Randy Arozarena and Lazaro Armenteros and the current state of Cuban baseball.
- Several young stars are cited by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper as he proposes five trades that could solve needs for the involved teams and create playing time for some blocked prospects. The two most eye-popping of Cooper’s suggestions are trades that would see the Mets deal Steven Matz and Luis Carpio to the Red Sox for Yoan Moncada, and an all-NL Central trade that would see the Pirates send outfielders Austin Meadows and Willy Garcia to the Reds for lefty Cody Reed.
Market For Yoenis Cespedes “Intensifying”
10:57pm: The Tigers are among the teams still at least considering Cespedes, Jon Heyman reports (all Twitter links). While GM Al Avila said during the Winter Meetings that his team was “out” on Cespedes, that was six weeks ago and things could have changed with the outfielder still on the market in mid-January. Indeed, later reports suggested that Detroit was still monitoring Cespedes if his price dropped. Heyman notes that the Tigers may be thinking about adding a big bat since they seriously thought about signing Davis; some front office members even wanted to make the move, though “future luxury-tax concerns” scuttled the signing.
12:36pm: With plenty of interest in and activity on Cespedes, there’s “no chance” he will be forced to take a “very short deal,” Jon Heyman tweets.
10:58am: The market for free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes is “intensifying,” according to ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link). It seems possible that a deal could come together within “the next few days,” he adds.
With yesterday’s reported agreement between Chris Davis and the Orioles, it seems plausible to expect greater clarity in Cespedes’s own market. Baltimore had emerged as one of the most widely-reported suitors for the Cuban veteran, but the addition of Davis likely takes them out of the market for further major power bats.
Cespedes is said to be seeking something nearing or even exceeding the overall value that Davis received from the O’s. But it remains unclear as yet where that level of cash will come from. Baltimore was reportedly interested at around $90MM over five years.
While we have only heard about clear interest from a few teams to date, Bowden says that as many as ten organizations are still in “active contact” with Cespedes’s reps. While at least some are surely offering a soft landing rather than pursuing a bidding war, that’s still encouraging at this stage of the winter.
From public reports to date, the Mets and White Sox are apparently not willing to go past three years. The Braves reportedly have interest, too, but it’s hard to imagine that Atlanta would go anywhere near the Davis contract. Other teams that make good hypothetical fits, such as the Tigers and Angels, have not been tied strongly to Cespedes.
In considering the possibilities, though, it’s worth noting that virtually all of the league’s teams could stand to improve by adding Cespedes. While that’s hardly the end of the analysis, there should be ample motivation to explore the possibilities. Young players can be held in the upper minors; trades can be made; and position changes can be implemented. It’s true, too, that there are some trade candidates still out there that effect things as well, but there’s no getting around the fact that Cespedes had a monster season last year, is a great athlete with all-around abilities, and isn’t even all that old.
Marlins Made Marcell Ozuna Trade Offers To Rangers, Reds
The Marlins made separate trade offers to the Rangers and Reds for Marcell Ozuna earlier this winter, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. The Fish wanted starting pitching back in both proposed deals, and it seems as if there was little-to-no room for further negotiations in these offers; Jackson writes that the Marlins “decided internally that they would trade [Ozuna] only if those teams met their exact asking price.”
It should be noted that these offers were both made before Miami signed Wei-Yin Chen, so the team’s need for rotation help is no longer quite as dire. Still, as the Marlins feel “a team can never have enough pitching,” Jackson thinks the Fish would revisit trading Ozuna if Texas or Cincinnati agreed to their demands.
Ozuna has been mentioned in rumors for months as a major trade chip Miami could use to acquire at least one solid young rotation piece. Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria reportedly had developed some bad blood with Ozuna and agent Scott Boras over Ozuna’s demotion to Triple-A (which Boras claimed was done to stall Ozuna’s service time and not for developmental reasons) so it was seen as just a matter of time before a trade was finalized.
While at least 10 teams showed interest and at least one deal (with the Mariners) was heavily discussed, however, the tide had seemingly turned towards Ozuna staying in Miami. Personal issues aside, Loria and the front office were insisting on a very big return for Ozuna and weren’t willing to just give such a promising young outfielder away. New manager Don Mattingly and new hitting coach Barry Bonds were also lobbying to keep Ozuna, which undoubtedly played a factor. Since Chen is also a Boras client, it stands to reason that relations between Loria and the agent have also somewhat improved.
The Rangers have been connected to Ozuna in trade rumors for months, though it’s something of an imperfect fit since while Texas has some intriguing young arms (i.e. Chi Chi Gonzalez, Nick Martinez), they could use those reinforcements themselves in the Major League rotation. Delino DeShields also emerged as a good center fielder for the Rangers in 2015 so they didn’t have a huge need at the position, though Ozuna would’ve been an upgrade.
This is the first time we’ve heard of the Reds attached to Ozuna, though their interest makes sense given their outfield needs. Right fielder Jay Bruce is entering his last guaranteed year under contract and is available for trades, while the Reds are currently planning to use a platoon of unproven youngsters in left. Of course, Billy Hamilton is already Cincinnati’s regular center fielder, and he’s shown such a spectacular glove that if Ozuna did join the Reds, he’d be the one moving to left.
While the Reds have been in rebuild mode by dealing Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake, Marlon Byrd, Aroldis Chapman and Todd Frazier in the last seven months, Ozuna (25) is young enough to fit Walt Jocketty’s plan to quickly reload and contend again by 2017. Even moreso than Texas, however, Cincinnati is lacking in pitching depth — they were using an all-rookie rotation for much of last season after Cueto and Leake were dealt. The Reds have righties Robert Stephenson and Keury Mella and southpaws Amir Garrett and Cody Reed among their top prospects, and the club may prefer to see if those young arms can develop into long-term pieces for their uncertain rotation rather than deal one or more of them for Ozuna.
Indians Notes: Starters, Uribe, Prospects
As Trevor Bauer celebrates his 25th birthday today, here’s the latest news from Cleveland…
- “The calls have stopped since Christmas” on the Indians‘ top four starters, Peter Gammons writes in his latest piece for his Gammons Daily website. Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and (particularly) Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar have been at the center of many trade rumors all offseason long, though it appears that no team is willing to meet the Tribe’s understandably-high asking price. It certainly seem as if the quartet will headline Cleveland’s rotation in 2016, barring a late blockbuster.
- The Indians have interest in Juan Uribe but not at his current asking price, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Cleveland is also looking at a few veterans, not necessarily Uribe, whose price tags may drop as we get closer to Spring Training.
- Though several teams showed interest in prospects like Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer, Rob Kaminsky and others, the Indians decided to keep their top minor leaguers, Baseball America’s Jim Ingraham writes (subscription required).
California Notes: A’s, Kendrick, Freese, Padres
With the NFL’s Oakland Raiders probably unlikely to end up in Los Angeles, CSNBayArea.com’s Joe Stiglich looks at how this could impact the Athletics‘ bid for a new ballpark. It seems like the Raiders will share the O.co Coliseum with the A’s for at least one more year and big picture-wise, not much has changed, as per a press release from A’s co-owner Lew Wolff earlier this week: “The Oakland A’s will continue to explore our options with the City of Oakland and the County of Alameda on a new venue. This announcement by the NFL regarding the Raiders does not change our immediate plans or our goal of securing a new baseball-only facility.” The Raiders would like to build a new stadium on the Coliseum’s current site, which would allow the A’s to opt out of their lease and perhaps explore a new ballpark site in downtown Oakland or even a move to a new city. Pro Football Rumors (MLBTR’s sister site) has all the latest on the Oakland stadium situation in their Raiders news section. Here’s some more from the California teams…
- “The Dodgers want the draft pick they would get if (Howie) Kendrick signs elsewhere much more than they want to bring back Kendrick,” Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times writes. Since Kendrick rejected the qualifying offer, the Dodgers will receive a compensation pick if he signs elsewhere, but only if Kendrick signs before the June draft. It’s not really clear who might make a play for Kendrick at this point in the offseason — teams like the Mets, Angels, Nationals and Diamondbacks have been linked to him, though some have since addressed second base needs in trades and others (such as the D’Backs) are balking at giving up another draft pick for a QO free agent. With Chase Utley, Enrique Hernandez and Micah Johnson all lined up to handle second base, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said last month that the team “feel[s] pretty set” at the position.
- Also from Shaikin, he believes David Freese should’ve signed with the Angels when the two sides were in talks in December. When negotiations didn’t lead to a deal, the Halos traded for Yunel Escobar to play third base, and Freese hasn’t been since connected to any other teams. Though Freese was the best of a rather limited class of free agent third basemen, his market has likely been hurt by the fact that several of the teams in need of third base help this offseason (i.e. the Angels and White Sox) filled their holes on the trade market.
- The Pads bullpen is still wide-open heading into Spring Training, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. Sanders lists some of the many internal options available to the Friars, and also notes that the team has been quite good at developing unheralded arms into quality relievers in recent years.
Astros Notes: Cespedes, Keuchel, Castro, Breach Scandal
Here’s the latest from Minute Maid Park…
- Three different executives tell Peter Gammons (Twitter link) that the Astros are a team to watch on Yoenis Cespedes. It seems as if Cespedes’ market is picking up a lot of steam, though there’s still little in the way of solid information about which teams are most ardently pursuing the free agent outfielder. At first glance, Houston doesn’t seem to have a spot for Cespedes with Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gomez in left and center, plus George Springer in right field and Evan Gattis at DH. Then again, the Astros were also recently connected to Ender Inciarte in trade talks with the Braves, indicating that they might not be entirely satisfied with their current outfield mix. Signing Cespedes would either shift Rasmus to a DH time-share with Gattis, or perhaps one of Houston’s current outfielders would be traded. Of the trio, Rasmus can’t be dealt without his permission until June 15 since he accepted the Astros’ one-year qualifying offer.
- After avoiding arbitration with Dallas Keuchel on his 2016 contract, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that he still hopes to lock Keuchel up on a multi-year deal. “If we can get additional control beyond [2018,] we’re certainly going to attempt to do that,” Luhnow said. “The allure of free agency as players get closer gets more and more attractive. It gets more difficult the more success a player has and the closer he gets to free agency [to sign him]. We’re going to keep trying.” Keuchel’s agent, Darek Braunecker, said in early January that the two sides hadn’t yet had any extension talks this winter.
- The Astros don’t adhere to a strict “file-and-go” strategy with players who don’t come to an agreement before the arbitration filing deadline, though the club plans to indeed go to a hearing with catcher Jason Castro, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports. “It’s perfectly clear that Jason’s arbitration case is 100 percent file and go,” a source familiar with the negotiations told Drellich. “Given that fact, I see no way this case could settle at this point.” The Astros offered Castro a $5MM salary for 2016 while Castro filed for $5.25MM. (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected Castro for a $4.6MM salary.) It isn’t yet clear if Houston is also intent on going to a hearing with Evan Gattis, the team’s only other arb-eligible player who is still without an agreement.
- In another piece from Drellich, he looks at what could be next for the Astros and Cardinals in the data breach scandal involving the two clubs once former Cardinals scouting director Chris Correa is sentenced in April. (For a refresher on this unusual situation, click here and here.) More information about what was accessed from the Astros’ proprietary data network could come to light at Correa’s sentencing hearing, and Drellich speaks to several attorneys and security sources about what the next steps could be for both teams, Correa and Major League Baseball. While the league could punish the Cards with a fine or taking away draft picks, it may be harder for the Astros to claim they should be compensated themselves.
Diamondbacks Temporarily Halt Extension Talks With A.J. Pollock
The Diamondbacks have, at least temporarily, stopped negotiations with outfielder A.J. Pollock on a contract extension, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. In a text to Piecoro, Snakes GM Dave Stewart said of the negotiations that “We, both sides, have for the time being put that away.”
Pollock is the only one of Arizona’s eight arbitration-eligible players who didn’t reach an agreement before last Friday’s deadline, with Pollock filing for $3.9MM and the team countering with a $3.65MM offer for a 2016 contract. (MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.3MM figure for Pollock.) With such a modest gap between the two sides, you would think Pollock and the D’Backs stand a good chance at reaching an agreement before the matter goes to an arbitration hearing.
Both Pollock and the Diamondbacks expressed interest in working out a long-term deal in the wake of his breakout 2015 season. Pollock hit .315/.367/.498 with 20 homers, 39 steals and 111 runs scored in 673 plate appearances last year, and also won a Gold Glove for center field defense that impressed both voters and the advanced metrics (14 Defensive Runs Saved, +6.5 UZR/150). His 6.6 fWAR was topped by only seven other position players in baseball. Pollock’s big season and three remaining years of team control made him a hot commodity on the trade market this winter, with teams like the Braves and Indians asking for Pollock when the D’Backs inquired about their top starting pitchers.
It’s clear that the D’Backs see Pollock as a key part of their future, with team CEO Derrick Hall recently describing the center fielder as “almost untouchable” in trade talks. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams described in that last link, however, Pollock is something of a tricky extension candidate given his age (he just turned 28) and a relative lack of leverage on Arizona’s part. Pollock will already get a nice payday in his first arb-eligible season and he’s scheduled to hit free agency after the 2018 season, so he may not feel the urgency to sign an extension now and delay that potentially very lucrative trip to the free agent market by even a year or two — obviously he’d stand a better chance of scoring a major free agent contract entering his age-31 season than he would entering his age-33 season, for instance.
With all this in mind, perhaps it isn’t surprising that the extension talks are on hold for now. It’s also possible that the two sides will get Pollock’s 2016 contract out of the way first before again exploring multi-year scenarios, or the topic could be held off until after the 2016 season entirely.
Cafardo’s Latest: Lee, Freese, Victorino, Lincecum
In order to keep players healthy, reducing the schedule or expanding roster sizes could be topics of discussion in the next collective bargaining agreement, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. The latter idea could be more likely, as many owners would balk at the idea of losing revenue with fewer games on the schedule. Roster expansion could take the form of teams having a 28-man active roster, but only 25 players are eligible for any game day. As Cafardo notes, teams are essentially wasting three or four roster spots under the current rules since those spots are used for starting pitchers who won’t get into the game. Here’s some hot stove news from Cafardo’s latest column…
- Cliff Lee is still something of a question mark for some teams, as it’s unclear as to whether Lee will be able to pitch on Opening Day or around midseason. Agent Darek Braunecker recently said his client would be 100 percent ready if he decided to pitch in a showcase for teams, though an AL official tells Cafardo that he didn’t know much about how Lee was progressing after missing all of 2015 with a flexor tendon tear that wasn’t surgically repaired. Two NL officials tell Cafardo that Lee is looking for a big base salary and a spot on a contending team, which ties into Braunecker’s previous comment about how Lee needs a “perfect fit” in order to return to pitching.
- Cafardo wonders if the Red Sox could make a play for David Freese if the third baseman is still available by Spring Training. Boston already has Pablo Sandoval at the hot corner, though Sandoval struggles so much against southpaws that Freese (a right-handed hitter) could surely get at-bats against left-handed pitching. Though Freese went into the offseason as the top player in a thin free agent market for first basemen, he hasn’t generated a lot of buzz on the rumor mill outside of some talks with the Angels in December before the Halos acquired Yunel Escobar to fill their third base void. If Freese was indeed willing to take a backup or platoon role, I’d suggest he might look at teams who can provide a clearer path to playing time than the Red Sox, who also have Brock Holt, Deven Marrero and Travis Shaw as backup third base options.
- “We have a couple of teams that have been nibbling, but don’t know when they become fully engaged,” agent John Boggs said about his client Shane Victorino. It could be that interest picks up in the veteran once other free agent outfielders leave the market.
- An executive for an NL team says Tim Lincecum is generally seen as “inventory” around the league. Lincecum was said to be hoping to hold a showcase this month to prove his health following September hip surgery and enhance his stock. Perhaps given this health concern, only two teams (the Marlins and Giants) have been linked to Lincecum in recent months. “For the moment, ties with the Giants have been severed,” Cafardo writes, though “who knows” if the two sides could agree to a reunion.
Poll: How Much Will Yoenis Cespedes Get?
The free agent market has steadily advanced in the new year, but significant names remain. Many of them have drawn divergent opinions at times, perhaps none moreso than Yoenis Cespedes. With reports suggesting that Cespedes is receiving heavy interest, and could soon close in on a deal, it seems like an opportune time to get everyone’s predictions.
In this free agent profile, I broke down his benefits and drawbacks while agreeing with MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that a $140MM guarantee was obtainable. That was in early December, and a seeming market lull made some wonder whether the dollars were drying up. Now, most signings are still coming in at expected values, and the above-cited reports suggest Cespedes won’t need to settle for a pure pillow contract. But will he max out his earning potential?
Opt-outs, options, deferred money, taxes, and the like all weigh in the equation, of course. But those are hard to account for in this sort of exercise, and the bottom-line guarantee is still king.
So, here’s your chance to weigh in:
What Overall Guarantee Is Yoenis Cespedes Most Likely To Land?
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$90MM to $120MM 46% (6,732)
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$60MM to $90MM 20% (2,979)
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$120MM to $150MM 19% (2,736)
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$30MM to $60MM 6% (839)
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$10MM to $30MM 5% (759)
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$150MM to $180MM 3% (502)
Total votes: 14,547