2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).
- Jake Arrieta, Cubs: $13MM versus $7.5MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: $13.1MM versus $9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: $11.8MM versus $11.35MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Neil Walker, Mets: $11.8MM versus $9.4MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- J.D. Martinez, Tigers: $8MM versus $6MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Trevor Plouffe, Twins: $7.95MM versus $7MM (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, via Twitter)
- Zach Britton, Orioles: $7.9MM versus $5.6MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Brandon Belt, Giants: $7.5MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Lucas Duda, Mets: $7.4MM versus $5.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Garrett Richards, Angels: $7.1MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mike Moustakas, Royals: $7MM versus $4.2MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Nate Eovaldi, Yankees: $6.3MM versus $4.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mitch Moreland, Rangers: $6MM versus $4.675MM (Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Twitter)
- Kevin Jepsen, Twins: $5.4MM versus $5.05MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jason Castro, Astros: $5.25MM versus $5MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jeurys Familia, Mets: $4.8MM versus $3.3MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Ivan Nova, Yankees: $4.6MM versus $3.8MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Arbitration Roundup: 34 Players Remain Unsigned
Now that the dust has settled from the morning’s rash of arbitration-avoiding deals, it is time to look out for reports on the arbitration numbers filed by players and teams that have yet to reach agreement. As MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker shows, of the 156 players to file, 34 have still yet to agree to terms on a contract. (Lorenzo Cain exchanged figures but is said to be nearing a two-year deal with the Royals, so he isn’t included.)
Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases. In 2014, for the first time ever, no arbitration hearings took place, but several took place again last season.
That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Of those clubs believed to continue to utilize such a strategy, only the Blue Jays (Josh Donaldson, Jesse Chavez) and Rays (Drew Smyly) have open cases remaining. Also, the Reds reportedly will take any sub-$2MM contracts to a hearing, which could suggest that reliever J.J. Hoover may appear before a panel. The Astros are also said to be taking a “file-and-go” approach with catcher Jason Castro.
Other notable players who have yet to agree upon a 2016 salary include Jake Arrieta of the Cubs; Brandon Belt of the Giants; Zach Britton of the Orioles; Aroldis Chapman of the Yankees; Neil Walker, Lucas Duda, and Jeurys Familia of the Mets; Mike Moustakas of the Royals; Trevor Plouffe of the Twins; and A.J. Pollock of the Diamondbacks. Be sure to keep a close eye on MLBTR’s pages for information on those and other situations, and in the meantime click here to review MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s projections for all arbitration-eligible players.
Nationals Avoid Arbitration With Ben Revere
The Nationals have struck a one-year deal with just-acquired outfielder Ben Revere for $6.25MM with the possibility of a bit extra in performance bonuses, Jon Heyman reports ( Twitter links). Revere had been projected by MLBTR to earn a $6.7MM salary next year.
Revere, a former Super Two, earns just over a $2MM raise above his earnings last year. He benefited from a strong number of plate appearances (626) and solid overall .306/.342/.377 batting line with 31 stolen bases and 84 runs. Of course, Revere’s arb earnings are limited by his low output of home runs (2) and runs batted in (a career-high 45).
It’s not yet immediately clear how Revere will be utilized in D.C., but he should be a part of a somewhat flexible three-man rotation along with veteran Jayson Werth and youngster Michael Taylor. He’s controllable for another year through arbitration process.
In the trade that brought Revere to the Nationals, the team reportedly agreed to send enough cash to offset the difference between his salary and that of Drew Storen. While it isn’t clear exactly how that will work, it’s worth noting that Storen agreed today to a $8.375MM salary for 2016.
Athletics Avoid Arbitration With Josh Reddick
The Athletics have agreed to a $6.575MM price tag with outfielder Josh Reddick, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. MLBTR had projected him at an even $7MM, so he’ll come in a fair bit below that number.
Reddick played the 2015 season on a $4.1MM salary. He’ll earn a raise of just under $2.5MM for his final season before reaching open-market eligibility.
Soon to turn 29, Reddick has a consistent track record of above-average offensive production with solid pop. While he hasn’t returned to the 32-homer power he showed in 2012, he’s also drastically cut down on the huge strikeout rate he carried that year. All told, he’s slashed .255/.317/.441 in 2,370 plate appearances dating back to 2011.
With a glove that usually rates quite well — despite a drop-off last year — and very good overall contributions on the basepaths, Reddick has generally landed in the 2.5-to-3.5 WAR range for the last half-decade. That makes him a relative bargain at his agreed-upon rate, and leaves him positioned to draw quite a bit of interest as a free agent next winter.
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Pirates, Mark Melancon Avoid Arbitration
2:24pm: Melancon will receive $9.65MM for his final season before free agency, according to Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette (on Twitter).
2:03pm: The Pirates and closer Mark Melancon have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Financial terms have yet to be disclosed, although the All-Star right-hander was projected to earn an even $10MM by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Melancon, a client of Relativity Sports, is entering his final season of club control before reaching the open market as a free agent. With his agreement in place, the Pirates have seemingly avoided arbitration with all of their eligible players, although they’ve yet to announce backup catcher Chris Stewart‘s reported two-year contract extension.
Yankees Claim Lane Adams From Royals, Designate Ronald Torreyes
The Yankees announced on Friday that they have claimed center fielder Lane Adams off waivers from the Royals and designated infielder Ronald Torreyes for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The fleet-footed Adams, 26, reached Triple-A for the first time this past season, struggling through 37 games there on the heels of a strong Double-A campaign. Overall, the Oklahoma native batted a combined .281/.347/.445 with 16 homers and 31 stolen bases — his third consecutive season with 30 or more steals. Last winter, Baseball America rated him 15th among Royals farmhands, calling him a plus-plus runner and a plus defender with a fringe-average arm and a bit of pull power. Ultimately BA pegged him as a fourth outfielder. Given his strong defensive chops, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a club take a flier on Adams.
Torreyes, who turned 23 in September, had only recently been claimed off waivers himself before today’s move. Torreyes got a brief cup of coffee with L.A. in 2015 — his Major League debut — collecting a pair of hits in six at-bats/eight plate appearances. Torreyes has seen most of his professional defensive work come at second base, though he does have significant experience at shortstop (144 games) and third base (65 games) as well. He’s also seen a bit of time in the corner outfield. This past season, Torreyes batted .261/.308/.347 between Double-A and Triple-A across three organizations: the Astros, Blue Jays and Dodgers. While he’s never shown much pop, Torreyes has hit for average pretty consistently in the minors while displaying the aforementioned defensive versatility. He’s a lifetime .287/.330/.358 hitter at Triple-A and an overall .298/.353/.409 hitter in the minor leagues.
Dodgers, Kenley Jansen Avoid Arbitration
The Dodgers and standout closer Kenley Jansen have avoided arbitration, according to a club announcement. Jon Heyman tweets that Jansen will receive a hefty $10.65MM salary for 2016 — his final season before qualifying for free agency. Jansen, a client of the Wasserman Media Group, had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn an $11.4MM payday this winter.
Latest On Doug Fister’s Asking Price
Right-hander Doug Fister and his agents at PSI Sports Management have been seeking a two-year contract worth a guaranteed total of about $22MM this offseason, a source tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
Fister has reportedly drawn interest from a number of clubs this offseason, including the Phillies, Marlins and Tigers, although each of those teams has added rotation help since initially being connected to the soon-to-be 32-year-old. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that the Orioles like Fister quite a bit but aren’t interested in going anywhere near Crasnick’s reported price tag in order to lure him to Baltimore.
Entering the 2015 season, Fister was part of what looked to be a star-studded class of elite and second-tier arms that were slated to hit the open market this winter. However, the 2015 campaign was the worst of his career by nearly any measure. Fister, of course, began the season in one of the game’s deepest rotations (Nationals), but he surprisingly struggled to the point where he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen. While he’s never thrown hard in the past, Fister opened the season averaging just over 86 mph on his fastball and eventually landed on the disabled list in mid-May with a bout of forearm tightness. He returned about a month later but didn’t see much in the way of improved results. All told, he recorded an uncharacteristic 4.60 ERA across 15 starts in his second (and presumably final) season with the Nats. In those 15 starts, Fister logged 86 innings (about 5 2/3 innings per outing) and struck out just 48 hitters — an average of 5.2 per nine innings. Fister’s 4.63 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA all matched his unsightly ERA, and his 42 percent ground-ball rate out of the rotation this season was the lowest of his career.
While there’s clearly a long list of red flags surrounding Fister, the upside he brings to the table is also tantalizing. From 2011-14, Fister was one of baseball’s most underrated player, recording a pristine 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent ground-ball rate across 750 2/3 innings. He landed on the DL a few times in that stretch for a strained lat muscle and a pair of strained muscles in his side — nothing arm-related — and averaged 188 innings per season in that time (201 per season when factoring in the playoffs, where he owns a 2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings). If he’s back to full health and able to replicate his 2011-14 success, a $22MM contract would be a steal. Of course, if his 2016-17 seasons are more like his 2015 campaign, such a commitment would look unsightly in a hurry.
Nationals, Stephen Strasburg Avoid Arbitration
The Nationals and right-hander Stephen Strasburg have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10.4MM salary for the 2016 season, tweets Jon Heyman. That lines up nearly perfectly with MLBTR’s projection of $10.5MM for the Scott Boras client, who is entering his final season before free agency. Strasburg projects to be the top name available on next year’s market as things currently stand.
Cespedes Has Been Seeking Six-Year Deal Worth Roughly $22MM Annually
Free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes and his representatives at Roc Nation Sports have been seeking a six-year contract that will pay the slugger as much as $22MM annually this offseason, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter).
At present, the Orioles are said to have an offer on the table to Cespedes that is worth in the range of $90MM over five seasons, with a sixth-year option possibly included in that offer. While it’s a sizable sum in a vacuum, that figure is a departure from the expectations that many carried for Cespedes heading into the offseason on the heels of a monstrous .291/.328/.542 season that featured 35 homers and excellent left field defense. The asking price highlights the unlikelihood that Cespedes will alter his course and instead seek a short-term deal, as many teams have seemingly hoped. The Mets are said to have interest on a deal of one to three years in length, and the White Sox were also reported to have interest in a three-year deal for their former division-rival.
If Cespedes is to ultimately decide his best course of action is to enter the open market again next offseason — which I personally find difficult to imagine — one creative alternative would be to pursue a relatively short-term deal with an opt out after the first year of the contract. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and I discussed that scenario for not only Cespedes but also Justin Upton on yesterday’s MLBTR Podcast. A high-annual-value deal of perhaps three years in length with a first-year opt out could prove to be a compromise between Cespedes and interested parties, although I’ll stress again that said scenario is only my own speculation.