Olney’s Latest: Price, Greinke, Carrasco, Shark, Cubs, Heyward
ESPN’s Buster Olney begins his latest Insider-only blog post by offering his take on David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox. Olney notes that while the blame for Boston’s failure to retain Jon Lester as its ace lies on owner John Henry and not former GM Ben Cherington, Henry deserves credit for recognizing the mistake and going to the measures necessary to bolster his rotation. Rival evaluators have wondered to Olney how Price will adapt to losing his velocity as he ages, but for the short-term, Price gives Boston exactly what it needed — an ace to front the rotation and shift names like Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Eduardo Rodriguez and the injury-prone Clay Buchholz down the rotation.
Some more highlights from Olney’s column…
- Price’s signing creates a perfect storm for Zack Greinke, who now stands alone as the top free agent starter on the market with a pair of division rivals — the Giants and Dodgers — bidding against one another to secure his services. One person close to the situation suggested to Olney that Greinke could land a five-year deal worth $165MM (an average annual value of $33MM), which meshes with a recent report from ESPN’s Jayson Stark that said Greinke could take a five-year deal if it meant a sizable increase over Price’s AAV.
- The Indians have been listening to offers on their young starters, but the price tags for pitchers like Price and Greinke have underscored the value of controllable, young arms like Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar, leading to a perhaps exorbitant asking price. For instance, the Indians asked the Giants for a package that included both Brandon Belt and Joe Panik in exchange for Carrasco in recent talks, according to Olney. While some Giants fans may recoil at the notion, Olney writes that with pitchers such as J.A. Happ commanding $36MM over three years, Carrasco’s four-year, $22MM contract and two club options come with incredibly high value. Carrasco talks between the two sides are dead at this point, he adds.
- The Cubs have been positioning themselves for a run at Jeff Samardzija since before Price made his final decision. The Giants are among the other clubs with interest in Samardzija, according to Olney, who wonders if the teams that missed out on both Price and (eventually) Greinke will then check in with Johnny Cueto as an alternative.
- The Cardinals have at least spoken to Greinke, but there’s no indication that they’re prepared to compete with the Dodgers and Giants for his services, making it seem unlikely that they’ll emerge as a late dark-horse candidate in his market.
- The Cubs weren’t comfortable with the notion of roughly $55MM per season for a pair of pitchers each season for the foreseeable future, referring to a potential combo of Price and Lester. Olney calls a swap of Jorge Soler and Braves right-hander Shelby Miller a potential plan B for Chicago, which would then free up the club to make a run at Jason Heyward.
Details, Reactions And Effects: The David Price Deal
Here’s a roundup of reactions to and news about David Price‘s seven-year, $217MM pact with the Red Sox.
- The signing came together partly as a result of maneuvering regarding Price’s fellow free agent starting pitcher Zack Greinke, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes (Twitter links). The Dodgers and Giants wanted Greinke to make a decision, while Greinke wanted to know where the Red Sox stood. The Sox, who had increased their offer to Price yesterday, wanted him to come to a decision so they knew whether to turn their attention to Greinke or possibly others.
- The Cardinals made the second-best offer to Price, Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes. Their seven-year offer was, however, worth $30MM less than that of the Red Sox. The Cubs also met with Price, but did not extend an actual offer.
- The Red Sox’ willingness to offer a deal with no deferred money helped persuade Price to sign quickly, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. (Of course, it must have also helped that the Red Sox’ offer was so much more lucrative than anyone else’s.) Price’s contract contrasts with the seven-year, $210MM deal Max Scherzer got last offseason, for example — although the dollar figures appear similar, Scherzer’s deal contains plenty of deferred compensation that reduces the deal’s present-day value. (Price’s deal also includes an opt-out after three years, while Scherzer’s does not.)
- Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski says the team is likely done making significant moves, reports John Tomase of WEEI.com. “We’ll be open-minded going into the Winter Meetings,” Dombrowski says. “We’ll see what happens over the next few days leading into that, but be in a position that I think our major moves are done. But when you go to the Winter Meetings, you can never tell what happens.” In addition to reaching an agreement with Price this offseason, the Red Sox have, of course, traded for closer Craig Kimbrel and signed outfielder Chris Young.
- Like Nightengale, Rosenthal also writes that Boston “blew away the field” with their offer. Rosenthal also notes that Price’s successes after being traded from the Rays to the Tigers and then the Blue Jays might have helped convince former Tigers exec Dombrowski that Price could succeed in a tough market.
- Price’s 2016 salary will add to a Sox payroll that appears likely to result in a large luxury tax penalty, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes. They could end up with a $215MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, which would result in a bill of about $9MM — 30% of the amount they spend over the $189MM threshold.
- The $31MM average annual value of Price’s contract isn’t a bad one for a large-payroll team like the Red Sox, and Price fits the Sox’ needs perfectly, writes ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only). Price immediately becomes by far the Red Sox’ best starter, and his combination of relative youth and good offspeed stuff suggests that he should age relatively gracefully in the next several seasons. Price’s addition should also help the team move Joe Kelly to a relief role for which he’s well suited. And signing Price, rather than, say, Greinke helps the Red Sox keep the 12th overall pick in next year’s draft, since Price wasn’t eligible to receive a qualifying offer after being traded at midseason.
- Price is a true ace, but the Red Sox are taking on lots of risk with his contract, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post writes. Lengthy deals for pitchers frequently turn out to be troublesome, and if Price doesn’t take advantage of his opt-out, the last four years of his contract could become a headache. Also, Svrluga writes, Price (who has a 5.12 career ERA in 63 1/3 playoff innings) still must prove he can step up in the postseason.
Greinke Likely To Decide Between Giants, Dodgers This Week
DEC. 2: ESPN’s Jayson Stark tweets that while Greinke’s preference is a six-year deal at an AAV north of Price, he’s also open to a five-year pact at a considerably higher AAV than he’d receive on a six-year contract.
DEC. 111:15pm: Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM tweets that a source close to the situation says Greinke will decide within the next 48 hours. Bowden adds that he expects Greinke to land a six-year deal worth $32MM annually, which would mean a $192MM total investment.
5:08pm: News of David Price‘s deal with the Red Sox is still fresh in the air, but another major decision may be relatively close, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets that Zack Greinke could decide on his next contract “soon,” labeling it a matter of Dodgers vs. Giants, with a five- to six-year deal being the expectation. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale adds (Twitter link) that a Greinke decision is expected this week, noting that he, too, hears the Dodgers and Giants stand alone as the finalists. ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that Greinke is seeking an AAV that exceeds Price, so he could come in at $31.5MM to $32MM annually.
Greinke, like Price, finished runner-up in his league’s Cy Young voting this season despite the best single-season ERA mark by a qualified pitcher since Greg Maddux in 1995. He’s spent the past three seasons in L.A., working to a combined 2.30 ERA across 602 2/3 innings. Recently, Crasnick reported that the market for Greinke was “quietly heating up,” listing San Francisco and Los Angeles as the primary teams that were said to be seeking clarity in their pursuit of Greinke.
The fact that two division rivals are the top suitors for Greinke must be music to the ears of both the pitchers and his representatives at Excel Sports Management. However many wins either teams feels that Greinke can add to their future totals, the view could be made that failing to sign him will instead add those wins to the closest rival’s total, possibly increasing each team’s willingness to spend.
Both clubs are known to be seriously interested in Greinke, but Dodgers ownership partner Magic Johnson told Yahoo’s Tim Brown today that Greinke was the team’s “No. 1 priority” this offseason (Twitter link).
Orioles Designate Steve Johnson For Assignment
The Orioles announced that they’ve designated right-hander Steve Johnson for assignment. The move creates space on the club’s 40-man roster for new acquisitions Mark Trumbo and C.J. Riefenhauser (only one spot was needed, as a second was opened up when Steve Clevenger went to Seattle in the deal).
Johnson, 28, logged a 2.11 ERA with 46 strikeouts against 18 walks in 38 1/3 innings for Baltimore back in 2012 but has tallied just 21 innings of 8.14 ERA ball in the Majors since that time. He’s spent stints on the disabled list due to a lat injury and an oblique injury since that successful rookie debut and also spent considerable time at the Triple-A level. Johnson has 317 1/3 career innings at Triple-A, where he’s worked to a 4.20 ERA with 8.5 K/9 against 4.0 BB/9.
Orioles Acquire Mark Trumbo, C.J. Riefenhauser For Steve Clevenger
The Orioles don’t yet know whether Chris Davis will return to Baltimore, but they have a potential replacement on the roster now in the event that he signs elsewhere, as the team has announced the acquisition of Mark Trumbo and left-hander C.J. Riefenhauser from the Mariners in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger.
Trumbo, 30 in January, provides insurance in the event that Davis does not return and can be an option in left field or at DH in the event that Davis is re-signed. Alternatively, the Orioles could deploy Trumbo at first base for his final season of club control and use Davis primarily in the corner outfield in 2016 before shifting him back to first base when Trumbo reaches free agency next winter.
Trumbo averaged 32 homers per season from 2011-13 with the Angels and D-backs, but injuries slowed him in 2014, and his power output declined a bit in 2015. In total, he’s a career .250/.300/.458 hitter with 30-homer power that is coming off a .262/.319/.449 season split between Arizona and Seattle. This marks the second time in the past three years that Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto has traded Trumbo, as he sent him to Arizona in a three-team deal that netted Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago while serving as GM of the Angels.
From a defensive standpoint, Trumbo is limited. While he has experience at third base, in the corner outfield and at first base, he’s below average at the hot corner and in the outfield. While that limitation and his low on-base numbers suppress Trumbo’s value, he’s still a legitimate source of right-handed power that can handle first base. The Mariners don’t value that skill set at Trumbo’s projected $9.1MM salary, but he can certainly help the Orioles next season, and a move out of Safeco Field could benefit his overall production.
Riefenhauser, a 25-year-old southpaw, was acquired earlier in the winter in the trade that also delivered Nate Karns from the Rays, but will apparently never suit up for Seattle. Riefenhauser has yet to do much of use in the big leagues (6.30 ERA in 20 innings), but has put up excellent minor league numbers. In 113 innings at the Triple-A level, Riefenhauser has a 2.15 ERA to go along with averages of 8.7 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings pitched.
The 29-year-old Clevenger gives the Mariners a left-handed-hitting complement to Chris Iannetta and makes it easier for the club to give Mike Zunino some further development time at Triple-A. Clevenger, who also has experience at first base and third base, batted .287/.314/.426 with a pair of homers in 105 plate appearances in Baltimore last season. He’s been shuffled between the Majors and minors with the Cubs and Orioles over the past four seasons due primarily to questions about his defense, as he doesn’t have much to prove at the plate in Triple-A. The former seventh-round pick has never shown a great deal of power but consistently hits for average and gets on base at the top minor league level, where he’s a lifetime .310/.372/.413 hitter in 1061 plate appearances.
Clevenger is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to stick with the Major League club out of Spring Training in 2016. While he was projected to split time with Caleb Joseph behind the plate for the Orioles in 2016, a wrench was thrown into those plans when Matt Wieters accepted a qualifying offer. With Wieters and Joseph now slated to be the primary catching duo next season, Clevenger’s role with the team is uncertain.
The trade leaves the Mariners without a definitive answer at first base in 2016. With Trumbo now in Baltimore and Logan Morrison having been dealt to Tampa Bay in the aforementioned Riefenhauser trade, Seattle will likely look outside the organization to bring in a new first baseman. While some might speculate on the possibility of Davis — the man that could theoretically be replaced in Baltimore by Trumbo — Dipoto has operated primarily on the trade market to make his biggest additions thus far and has voiced a preference for that route to free agency. Considering the fact that Seattle has the top unprotected draft pick in 2016 (No. 11 overall), adding Davis would be more costly for the Mariners than any other club. None of that, of course, precludes a run at Davis, but it’s hard to envision him as the team’s top priority.
Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune first reported that a Trumbo-for-Clevenger swap was close. Jon Heyman of CBS Sports said an agreement was in place (Twitter link). Dutton and MLB.com’s Greg Johns said a second player was in the deal (Twitter links). Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun tweeted that Riefenhauser was the second player.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Rangers Working On Deal For Backup Catcher
The Rangers have a deal in the works that would bring in a “backup type catcher,” according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (Twitter links). If Texas pulls off the deal, says Sullivan, there could be an impact on its non-tender decisions this evening.
There are two backstops on the Rangers’ rolls of arbitration-eligible players: Chris Gimenez ($1MM projection) and Robinson Chirinos ($1.4MM). It seems unlikely that the latter would be displaced from the roster after averaging a league-average batting line and just over 300 plate appearances in each of the last two years. He can be controlled for two more seasons after this one.
Gimenez, though, could be at risk. Soon to be 33, he slashed an excellent .255/.330/.490 in just over one hundred plate appearances last year, but that doesn’t line up with his more modest career numbers. It’s certainly possible to imagine that Texas wouldn’t want to commit to giving him a roster spot if another option is added.
Free Agent Notes: Fowler, Zobrist, Leake, Venable, Relievers
The Mets have some level of interest in Dexter Fowler as a center field option, reports ESPN’s Buster Olney (via Twitter). However, Ben Zobrist remains the team’s top priority in free agency. Recent reports have indicated that the Mets won’t go to four years on Zobrist, and that will probably need to change in order to sign him, as Yahoo’s Jeff Passan said last night the price tag is currently believed to be around $60MM over four years. Should the Mets lose out on Zobrist, they could look to upgrade in center field, where Juan Lagares had a down season in 2015 — the first of a four-year contract extension. Lagares’ contract is affordable enough that he could be moved to a reserve role without it being an overpay.
A few more notes from around the free-agent market…
- ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick delivers a slew of news pertaining to Zobrist (Twitter links 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). Per Crasnick, the Nationals, Giants and Dodgers are all in the mix for Zobrist as well. The Cubs and Cardinals like Zobrist but don’t have as many at-bats to offer as the other clubs. The Royals are probably priced out on Zobrist, and while the Angels inquired earlier this offseason, there’s been no recent discussion between the two sides. Additionally, Zobrist’s preference is to play for a contender, making the Braves a tough fit even though they do have some level of interest. Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press hears (Twitter link) that about 11 clubs are in the mix for Zobrist, to some extent, but the Twins aren’t among them (which is no surprise given their glut of outfielders and Brian Dozier‘s presence at second base).
- Crasnick hears the same that Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has recently suggested — that having fallen short on David Price, the Cardinals could turn their attention to Mike Leake on the free agent market. Leake won’t cost near the same amount that the Cardinals were willing to go on Price, but he’d be a strong option to replace the injured Lance Lynn in their rotation in 2016 and would provide value for another four years or so beyond that point.
- Also from Crasnick, both the Indians and Orioles have expressed interest in free-agent outfielder Will Venable. While the 32-year-old Venable is coming off a down season split between San Diego and Texas, he has historically been a productive bat for the Friars and has posted solid numbers away from the spacious Petco Park over the life of his career. Venable is also capable of playing all three outfield positions.
- A pair of notes on relievers: Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald hears that the Red Sox are no longer in the market for right-hander Joakim Soria (Twitter link). Having spent an enormous amount in terms of dollars and prospects to acquire Price and Craig Kimbrel, it’s perhaps logical that the Sox wouldn’t spend so heavily. Additionally, Crasnick spoke to an agent who said that the Blue Jays are looking for an impact (Twitter link), power arm for their bullpen but are trying to land such a piece for “dollar store prices,” suggesting that the team isn’t keen on shelling out a significant multi-year deal.
Rangers Acquire Patrick Kivlehan To Complete Martin Trade
The Rangers have acquired corner infielder/outfielder Patrick Kivlehan as the player to be named later in the recent trade that sent Leonys Martin to the Mariners, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News tweets and the teams have announced.
Kivlehan, 25, posted a .256/.313/.453 batting line in 518 plate appearances at Triple-A last year, hitting 22 home runs in the process. He’s hit for a better average and reached base at a better clip in prior seasons, though, and showed enough that MLB.com recently rated him Seattle’s fifth-best prospect. The MLB.com team credits Kivlehan with good athleticism and makeup, noting that he’s still working on his polish after having spent much of his college career playing football.
In sum, then, Texas’s haul for Martin and righty Anthony Bass includes Kivlehan, young outfielder James Jones, and righty Tom Wilhelmsen.
Tigers To Non-Tender Neftali Feliz
The Tigers will non-tender reliever Neftali Feliz, according to James Schmehl of MLive.com (via Twitter). He’ll join fellow right-handed reliever Al Alburquerque in reaching the open market rather than returning to Detroit via arbitration.
Feliz signed on with the Tigers over the summer after being cut loose by the Rangers. The 27-year-old was projected by MLBTR to earn $5.2MM. That’s rather a steep price, but his numbers were driven up by prior saves and the fact that he was in his final year of eligibility.
Things didn’t work out at all in Detroit, as the former closer scuffled to a 7.62 ERA in his 28 1/3 innings. That’s probably not a fair reflection of his efforts, as ERA estimators saw him more as a ~4.00 performer, but Feliz had been outperforming his peripherals for some time.
It’s been a remarkable fall for a pitcher who once looked like a future ace reliever — if not a high-quality starter. But teams will still probably look at Feliz as a nice rebound candidate: youth remains on his side and he still brings his fastball in the 94 to 95 mph range on average.
Phillies Claim Peter Bourjos, Lose Nefi Ogando To Marlins
The Phillies have claimed center fielder Peter Bourjos off waivers from the Cardinals, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (links to Twitter). The Phillies have since announced the move, adding that right-handed reliever Nefi Ogando has been claimed off waivers by the Marlins.
The claim of Bourjos gives the Phillies a defensively gifted center fielder that has a year of club control remaining at a modest (projected) salary of $1.8MM. The Phillies had the top waiver priority this offseason, meaning Bourjos was nabbed by the first team to which he was made available. That, perhaps, shouldn’t come as a total surprise considering the fact that new Phillies GM Matt Klentak was a longtime assistant GM with the organization that drafted and developed Bourjos — the Angels.
St. Louis originally acquired Bourjos and then-prospect Randal Grichuk from the Angels in a deal that sent David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels. Bourjos was deemed expendable in Anaheim due to the presence of Mike Trout in center field and Kole Calhoun and Josh Hamilton on the outfield corners. Bourjos, though, received inconsistent playing time in St. Louis and struggled to produce at the plate with the Cardinals, batting just .218/.292/.342 in 519 plate appearances. He also underwent hip surgery last offseason.
That operation may or may not have contributed to Bourjos’ uncharacteristically below-average defensive ratings in 2015. Long considered a premium defender with excellent speed, Bourjos posted Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating marks of -4 and -3.4, respectively, in 476 innings in center field. He’s been outstanding in every other season of his career, however, totaling 36 runs saved in 3761 career innings to go along with a UZR/150 of +16.1.
There’s some upside in Bourjos’ bat, as evidenced by a .271/.327/.438 batting line posted back in 2011, though he’s now four seasons removed from that type of production. A move to the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park should help his offense, though. Bourjos, who turns 29 at the end of next Spring Training, will be in the mix for considerably more at-bats than he received in St. Louis. He’ll be joined by Odubel Herrera and Cody Asche as potential starters, and young Aaron Altherr, too, figures to receive consideration as well.
In Ogando, the Phillies have lost (and the Marlins have gained) a 26-year-old righty with a blistering fastball but a questionable secondary pitch and questionable control. Ogando averaged 95.5 mph on his fastball in a brief, four-inning Major League debut last season. He did post a strong 2.86 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, but he averaged just 7.9 K/9 against 4.4 BB/9 in spite of his strong velocity. The Marlins will look to harness his control in an effort to better translate his heat to missed bats and, ideally, strong results at the big league level.