Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Gibson, Padres, Fulmer
On this date in 2005, the Pirates hired Jim Tracy as manager to replace the recently-fired Lloyd McClendon, as Leo Panetta of NationalPastime.com writes. Of course, it was just days ago that McClendon was dismissed from his most recetn job with the Mariners.
Here’s this week’s look around the baseball blogosphere..
- Redbird Rants interviewed Cardinals Hall of Famer Bob Gibson.
- Fueled By Sports has some ideas to remake the Padres again.
- Legends On Deck asks if Michael Fulmer is an elite pitching prospect.
- Blue Jays Plus spoke with former World Series hero Ed Sprague.
- Camden Depot explained how horizontal trajectory affects BABIP.
- Yankees Unscripted says the Bombers misused Adam Warren.
- Inside The ‘Zona discussed Archie Bradley.
- Kingdome Of Seattle Sports wrote about what new M’s GM Jerry Dipoto’s first priorities should be.
- Pinstriped Prospects ran down the farm hands that debuted for the Bombers.
- A’s Farm broke down Oakland’s contingent in the AFL.
- Outside Pitch discussed the importance of Yoenis Cespedes.
- Notes From The Sally scouted Ozzie Albies.
- When Sid Slid looked at the pros and cons of Atlanta’s strong finish.
- Baseball Hot Corner talked Jake Arrieta.
Please send submissions to Zach at ZachBBWI@gmail.com.
NL East Notes: Phillies, Janssen, Papelbon, Storen, Murphy
The Phillies last lost 99 games in 1969, writes Frank Fitzpatrick of the Philadelphia Inquirer. It took seven more seasons for the club to return to the postseason, but it only takes a couple lucky moves to set the ball rolling. In the 1971 draft, Philadelphia gambled that they could snag Hall of Fame third baseman Mike Schmidt with their second round pick (30th overall). It worked out. Even better, they traded pitcher Rick Wise during the next offseason for another Hall of Famer – Steve Carlton. Today’s Phillies have better odds of returning to the postseason quickly – now one-third of teams reach the playoffs. They’ll still need to find a few diamonds in the rough in the interim.
- The Nationals aren’t expected to pick up Casey Janssen‘s $7MM club option, reports Bill Ladson of MLB.com in an analysis of the Washington roster. Janssen appeared in 48 games for Washington, throwing 40 innings of 4.95 ERA ball with 6.08 K/9 and 1.80 BB/9. The fly ball pitcher is best known for his command. He was the Blue Jays closer for parts of three seasons prior to joining the Nationals.
- Closer Jonathan Papelbon is “all but gone,” per Ladson. Papelbon was embroiled in the late-season scuffle with franchise star Bryce Harper. While it’s hard to get a read on the situation from the outside, it’s not surprising that the club could prefer to end the story for good. Ladson also views fellow closer Drew Storen as a change of scenery candidate. Storen pitched to a 6.75 ERA after Papelbon was acquired. If both relievers are traded (or cut in the case of Papelbon), the Nationals will need to acquire a new closer.
- Daniel Murphy‘s days with the Mets are almost certainly over, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. However, it would be a mistake if the club didn’t extend a qualifying offer. Based on input from agents and executives, Sherman thinks Murphy will sign a three-year deal in the $30MM to $40MM range. Sherman also has a “strong sense” that the Mets won’t extend a qualifying offer. New York has developed a reputation for penny pinching despite playing in a huge market. The biggest risk is that they pay Murphy $15.8MM for one season. Per Sherman, it’s a rate that a New York club should be able to easily afford, especially when the alternative is a still unproven youngster like Wilmer Flores or Dilson Herrera. Murphy was worth over $20MM this season according to FanGraphs.
De Fratus, Parmelee, Marcum Elect Free Agency
Several players with significant big league service time have elected free agency since the conclusion of the regular season. Per baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, players with more than three years of Major League service time that have been outrighted off a 40-man roster have the right to elect free agency at season’s end.
This list — not to be confused with our full list of 2015-16 free agents (which has been updated to include these names) — represents some of the players that would’ve been arbitration eligible following the season and were regular or fairly regular contributors recently but now find themselves on the open market after being outrighted…
- First baseman and outfielder Chris Parmelee has elected free agency, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Parmelee spent the 2015 season in the Orioles organization and made 102 plate appearances with the big league club. He hit a modest .216/.255/.433, but he was much better at Triple-A. The 27-year-old is a career .245/.311/.396 hitter in 1,003 plate appearances. He spent his entire career with the Twins prior to joining Baltimore this year.
- Veteran pitcher Shaun Marcum is also a free agent, per the same tweet from Cotillo. Marcum, 33, is a well-traveled veteran of eight seasons (he didn’t pitch in the majors in 2009 or 2014). He’s tossed 1,030 innings with 167 starts, 28 relief appearances, and a 3.93 ERA. More recently, he struggled at the major league level. He has a 5.34 ERA since 2013 in 113 innings. This season with the Indians, Marcum continued to post a decent strikeout (7.71 K/9) and walk (2.83 BB/9) rate, but he allowed nine home runs in just 33 innings. The fly ball pitcher throws just 85 mph.
- Justin De Fratus has elected to become a free agent, the right-hander announced via his Instagram page (hat tip to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). De Fratus praised the Phillies organization and thanked it for giving him his start as a professional ballplayer “but it’s time for me to start a new chapter in my life and career.” The Phillies outrighted De Fratus off their 40-man roster on Wednesday. The righty was originally drafted by the Phils in the 11th round of the 2007 draft and he’d posted solid career numbers out of Philadelphia’s bullpen (3.08 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.27 K/BB rate over 114 IP) prior to this season. Over 80 innings in 2015, De Fratus posted a 5.51 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Indicators such as xFIP and SIERA suggest that De Fratus was a bit unlucky to post that 5.51 ERA as he was hurt by a .335 BABIP and 66.2% strand rate. De Fratus, who turns 28 later this month, is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and MLBTR projects him to earn a $700K salary in 2016.
Quick Hits: Hawkins, Padres, Rockies
LaTroy Hawkins, 42, is the oldest active player in the game, but he nearly walked away before his career got started, writes Tracy Ringolsby of MLB.com. Hawkins is expected to retire after the season with the 10th most appearances in major league history – 1,042 regular season games. Hawkins was upset when the Twins sent him back to rookie ball to start the 1992 season, but his grandfather talked him out of quitting with a typical grandfatherly quote, “Where you going to stay? I don’t let quitters stay in my house.” Hawkins was also peeved after the club sent him back to Triple-A early in the 1995 season. Despite a 21 season career, Hawkins has yet to win a World Series. He’ll need the Blue Jays to recover from their two-game deficit in the ALDS.
- Padres GM A.J. Preller will need a new bag of tricks this offseason, writes Corey Brock of MLB.com. Last year, Preller memorably traded many of San Diego’s top prospects for major league reinforcements like Justin Upton, Craig Kimbrel, and Matt Kemp. The highly visible approach did not pay dividends, and now the club must retool (mostly) without the help of prospect chips. The team is likely to lose Upton and Ian Kennedy via free agency, but most of the core is under contract for 2016. Preller indicated that left-handed bats, left-handed pitching, and a true shortstop may be among the top priorities.
- The Rockies have a familiar problem to address this offseason – starting pitching. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that the rotation was actually worse than the 2014 version. Rockies starters posted a league worst 5.27 ERA and 4.87 FIP this season. Last year, they were second worst with a 4.89 ERA although their 4.54 FIP was still ranked last. Colorado pitchers certainly work with a handicap (called Coors Field), but the club needs to eventually figure out a way to get better pitching. GM Jeff Bridich seems to be betting on the current staff, per Saunders. Agent Scott Boras offered his own opinion, saying “They have to find a top, veteran arm…They have good, young pitchers. But they have before, too. And they’re all three (years) and out.”
New York Notes: Warthen, Severino, Prado, Gardner
Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen was overworked early in his career, writes Tim Rohan of the New York Times. Warthen figured he had torn his UCL back in 1975, but Tommy John had only received his eponymous surgery in 1974. Major league players were paid very little at the time so Warthen couldn’t afford the surgery or a year away from baseball. Instead he worked through the injury and his career ended a few years later at the age of 25. Of course, now it’s his job to make sure his young pitching staff remains healthy and productive for years to come.
Here’s more from that other New York club:
- The Yankees were right to keep top prospect Luis Severino, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Severino was one name discussed with the Tigers for David Price. Notably, Price is now 0-6 in six postseason starts with a 5.23 ERA. Scouts believe Severino will soon be the Yankees ace, and he’s under club control for another six seasons. Per one scout, “If you’re talking six or seven years for Price…I’d take Severino anyway.“
- GM Brian Cashman was loathe to part with Martin Prado in the offseason trade for Nathan Eovaldi, per Harper. His versatility and ability to match up against hard throwing left-handed pitching would have been useful for the club. The Marlins have him under club control for the 2016 season, but the Yankees are already paying $3MM of his $11MM contract. Personally, I see a swap for Prado as a worthy alternative to free agent Ben Zobrist.
- After a miserable second half, the Yankees may consider trading Brett Gardner, suggests Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Gardner has a similar skill set to leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, but both players disappeared in the second half of the season. If Gardner were to be traded, it could open the door for a power bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. One scout opined that an early season wrist injury and late season shoulder soreness could have affected Gardner’s play. He’s owed $36MM through 2018 with a $12.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout). He’ll also be paid a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.
Axisa On Qualifying Offer Candidates
Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.
If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:
- Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
- Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
- Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
- Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”
West Notes: Padres, Lopez, Dipoto
Some items from around both the NL and AL West divisions…
- Between existing salaries and arbitration salaries (as projected by MLB Trade Rumors), the Padres may not have much available payroll space for 2016, Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes. The Padres will have just under $104MM committed to 14 players, as per Sanders’ calculations, leaving GM A.J. Preller with little to spend if the team’s payroll is staying in the $120MM range. Some players could be non-tendered, of course, and Sanders suggests that San Diego could get some additional payroll relief by signing Tyson Ross to an extension and exploring trades for Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Cashner and Derek Norris.
- Cuban righty Yoan Lopez had a rough year on and off the field in his first season of American baseball, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. The 22-year-old posted a 4.17 ERA, 6.3 K/9 and 1.33 K/BB rate over 54 innings (48 of which were at the Double-A level) in a season shortened by a blister and elbow soreness. Lopez didn’t particularly impress scouts, as “the most positive among them viewed him as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter.” Perhaps even more troubling was an unsanctioned absence Lopez took from his team in July. The Diamondbacks signed Lopez to an $8.27MM bonus last January, surpassing their international signing pool and thus limiting them to signings of $300K or less during the current international period and the next.
- Both Jerry Dipoto and the Mariners have a chance at quick redemption after a messy resignation in Anaheim and a disappointing 2015 season, Tracy Ringolsby writes for Baseball America. While the situation with the Angels wasn’t entirely Dipoto’s fault, he still bears a share of the blame and will have to learn from the situation to succeed with the M’s.
AL East Notes: Wieters, Orioles, Yankees, Hendriks
Only one World Series has ever ended on a caught stealing, and that rare event took place on this day in 1926. The would-be base thief? Of all people, it was Babe Ruth thrown out trying to steal second by Cardinals catcher Bob O’Farrell to end Game Seven and give the Cards their first World Series title. This was one of a whopping five World Series-deciding games the Yankees have played on October 10 — they clinched victories in 1937, 1951 and 1956, and came up short in 1926 and 1957.
Here’s the latest from the AL East…
- Will the Orioles issue a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Matt Wieters? The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina and MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski each examine that question in separate pieces, as Wieters’ health status and underwhelming 2015 numbers could make $15.8MM too large a price tag for the O’s to potentially pay. Wieters could take the QO in order to prove his value in 2016 and elevate his free agent stock for next offseason, though no player has yet accepted a qualifying offer (and it could be a particular surprise if a Scott Boras client like Wieters was the first to do so). If Wieters did accept the QO, Encina notes that he’d be taking up budget room that could prevent Baltimore from re-signing Chris Davis or making another big free agent splash. “Some in the industry believe the Orioles” are willing to go with a Caleb Joseph/Steve Clevenger catching tandem in 2016 rather than Wieters, Melewski writes, though in not making Wieters a QO, Baltimore would lose the chance at a first-round draft pick as compensation for Wieters signing elsewhere.
- In another piece from Melewski, he cites Marco Estrada, Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy as possible fits for the Orioles this winter since it’s unclear as to whether the O’s will shop at the top of the free agent pitching market.
- Brian Cashman will have to “get creative” to upgrade the Yankees given the number of big contracts already on the books, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes, such as how the GM added Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi last winter. Feinsand also suggests four more ways for the Yankees to improve next year, such as deciding on who plays second base, finding playing time for Greg Bird, signing Justin Upton and staying away from David Price.
- Liam Hendriks was a member of five different organizations between December 2013 and October 2014 but he has seemingly found some stability as an important member of the Blue Jays bullpen. The Australian righty talks to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about his move to relief pitching, his increased velocity and the stress of switching teams so often within that 11-month span.
Week In Review: 10/3/15 – 10/9/15
Here’s a look back at this week at MLBTR…
Key Moves
- The Angels hired Billy Eppler as general manager
- Dan Jennings will return to his general manager role with the Marlins
- The Indians promoted Mike Chernoff to general manager and Chris Antonetti to president of baseball operations
- The Athletics promoted David Forst to general manager and Billy Beane to executive VP of baseball operations
- The Red Sox announced that John Farrell will return to manage the team in 2016
- Mike Scioscia will return to manage the Angels in 2016 after deciding to not exercise his opt-out clause
- The Mariners fired manager Lloyd McClendon and several members of the coaching staff
- The Nationals fired manager Matt Williams and the entire coaching staff
- The Padres announced that interim manager Pat Murphy will not manage the team in 2016
- The Cubs signed OF Eddy Julio Martinez to a contract with a $3MM bonus (though, unusually, the Giants claim they’re still in talks with the Cuban star)
- The Marlins re-signed OF Ichiro Suzuki to a one-year, $2MM contract
2016 Vesting Options
- Giants — RHP Santiago Casilla (link)
Claims
- Angels — OF Todd Cunningham (from Braves)
- Brewers — RHP Junior Guerra (from White Sox)
Designated For Assignment
- Angels — LHP Jo-Jo Reyes (link)
- Brewers — C Nevin Ashley (link)
Outrights
- Phillies — OF Jordan Danks, IF Chase d’Arnaud, RHP Justin De Fratus, C Erik Kratz, LHP Adam Loewen, RHP Jonathan Pettibone, LHP Kenny Roberts (link)
- Angels — IF Grant Green (link)
- White Sox — C Adrian Nieto (link)
Elected Free Agency
- RHP Justin De Fratus (link)
- RHP Dillon Gee
- RHP Dale Thayer
- 3B Conor Gillaspie
- RHP Vinnie Pestano
- RHP Hector Noesi (link for previous five entries)
Retired
Managerial Notes: Mattingly, M’s, Girardi, Alomar
Here’s a look at some of the rumors surrounding the game’s open managerial positions, including speculation about some current skippers…
- Don Mattingly may be Jeffrey Loria’s preferred choice to manage the Marlins, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman reports. Loria has “apparently developed a relationship with Mattingly, and is intrigued by the possibility” of having the Dodgers manager shift into the Miami’s dugout next season. This would, of course, hinge on whether Mattingly is even available, though Heyman suggests that L.A. could look for a change at manager if the team fails to win at least one playoff round.
- Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said that managing is “more about environment, leadership and energy” than it is about an analytical background, telling reporters (including MLB.com’s Greg Johns) that “too much is made of analytics. That’s a little overblown.” Dipoto’s ideal manager would blend both the old-school and new-school methods of thought: “It is not all about the data you’re provided or what you’re seeing with your eyes, it’s somewhere in between. A prerequisite will be to find someone who can balance those in an effective way.”
- It was no surprise that Dipoto parted ways with Lloyd McClendon, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times writes, given that McClendon was likely not as receptive to analytics as Dipoto would’ve preferred. Stone lists Bud Black, Scott Servais (who’s more likely to join the M’s as a front office member), White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing, Angels third base coach Gary DiSarcina and long-time Mariners Raul Ibanez and Dan Wilson as possible managerial candidates, though Angels special assistant Tim Bogar looks like the favorite, as was reported yesterday.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including George A. King III of the New York Post) that Joe Girardi‘s job is safe for 2016. “[Girardi] is signed for two more years and managed the team to the playoffs. It’s not his fault we didn’t hit. He managed a perfect playoff game,” Cashman said. Girardi is under contract through the 2017 campaign and is owed $4MM in each of the next two seasons. He is 735-561 with six postseason appearances (including the 2009 World Series title) over his eight seasons as New York’s manager, though this year’s AL Wild Card Game loss was the Yankees’ only playoff game since 2012.
- The White Sox have spoken to Indians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr. about becoming the team’s new bench coach, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Raul Ibanez is also reportedly a candidate for the bench coach job. Jim Margalus of the South Side Sox blog breaks down Alomar’s candidacy and wonders if the White Sox could install Alomar as manager if a slow start gets Robin Ventura fired next year. Margalus also opines that Alomar may not want to commit to a coaching job quite yet since he could be a candidate for one of the open managerial spots around baseball.