CC Sabathia Checks Into Alcohol Rehab
Yankees lefty CC Sabathia released a statement today announcing that he has checked himself into an alcohol rehabilitation program and will not be available for the postseason. His statement, via Yankees press release, is as follows:
Today I am checking myself into an alcohol rehabilitation center to receive the professional care and assistance needed to treat my disease. I love baseball and I love my teammates like brothers, and I am also fully aware that I am leaving at a time when we should all be coming together for one last push toward the World Series. It hurts me deeply to do this now, but I owe it to myself and to my family to get myself right. I want to take control of my disease, and I want to be a better man, father and player. As difficult as this decision is to share publicly, I don’t want to run and hide. But for now please respect my family’s need for privacy as we work through this challenge together. Being an adult means being accountable. Being a baseball player means that others look up to you. I want my kids — and others who may have become fans of mine over the years — to know that I am not too big of a man to ask for help. I want to hold my head up high, have a full heart and be the type of person again that I can be proud of. And that’s exactly what I am going to do. I am looking forward to being out on the field with my team next season playing the game that brings me so much happiness.
Clearly the decision comes at a difficult time, as the Yankees are presently preparing to embark on what they hope will be a lengthy postseason run. But, Sabathia’s admission of a problem and the need, on a human level, to seek help for his disease have understandably taken precedent.
It’s been a rough few seasons for Sabathia, who has seen his on-field production decline due, in large part, to knee issues that have required surgery. The longtime ace and former Cy Young winner has a 4.81 ERA across 424 1/3 innings in the past three seasons. He has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract in 2016, when he’ll earn $25MM, but he can also see a vesting option for the same amount kick in so long as he does not finish next year on the DL or spend significant time on the DL or in the bullpen due to left shoulder issues.
MLB Trade Rumors Arbitration Model
Salaries for arbitration eligible players eclipsed $1 billion in 2015, making the arbitration process more important to team building than ever. At MLB Trade Rumors, we are entering our fifth year of modeling arbitration salaries and have improved the model again for the 2015-16 offseason.
Being able to accurately predict salaries is crucial for teams, and it’s important for MLBTR readers who want to understand the rationale behind teams’ decision-making processes. Teams typically sign free agents before reaching agreements with arbitration eligible players, so budgeting effectively requires a reasonable estimate of how much they will spend on the complete roster once arbitration raises are determined.
Forecasting arbitration salaries is also important for signing young players to long-term deals. Teams have increasingly used such deals to achieve payroll certainty and to avoid the risk of crippling free agent contracts. As a result, teams have used arbitration forecasts many years into the future to determine appropriate spending levels on extensions. Understanding the arbitration process in general is also important for teams seeking to find inefficiencies. Teams succeed by finding bargains on the free agent market, but finding players who will be bargains in the arbitration process is helpful as well.
The basic structure of the arbitration model to be used for this year is the same as in past years. Players are compared to recent players who went through the arbitration process, who played similar positions and who had similar MLB service time. Typically, players qualify for arbitration upon reaching three full years of Major League service time. The top 22 percent of players from the group that has between two and three years of service time also becomes eligible. These players are designated as “Super Two” players and can be arbitration eligible four times before reaching free agency.
A player’s first arbitration salary is based primarily on his most recent season, but on overall career statistics are considered as well. Beyond the first year, players receive raises based more heavily on the most recent season’s performance. Historical performance is only factored in to the extent that it affected a player’s most recent salary. While that may seem counter-intuitive, those familiar with the process have confirmed that this is usually the case in actual arbitration hearings.
Another quirk to the arbitration process is that it usually only factors in “baseball card statistics” rather than more sophisticated metrics. While teams signing free agents are typically up to speed on sabermetrics, the arbitration process does not account for them. Counting stats are important, as is playing time in general. Since labor lawyers typically sit on arbitration panels, the concept of “making it to work every day” is something that holds value.
Hitters are typically evaluated using batting average, home runs, runs batted in, stolen bases and plate appearances. There are some positional adjustments, but typically the added defensive value of a shortstop relative to a first baseman is not as important in arbitration hearings as it is on the free agent market. Hitters also can receive larger arbitration awards if they have unique accomplishments, such as winning an MVP award. Pitchers typically are evaluated using innings pitched and earned run average. Starting pitchers are rewarded for wins, and relievers are rewarded for saves and holds. Unique accomplishments, such as Cy Young Awards, matter for pitchers as well.
In addition to factoring these statistics into the process, the arbitration model also accounts for salary inflation—players are expected to receive more money in 2016 for the same performance than they would have in 2015. Precedents are also important, as we learned when we developed the “Kimbrel Rule.” The Kimbrel Rule limits the maximum margin for a player to exceed the previous record for his player type to $1MM (and similarly, the maximum raise for a non-first time eligible player is $1MM greater than the previous record raise as well). This was developed because Craig Kimbrel’s eye-popping save and ERA numbers entering his first year of arbitration would have led to a projected salary that was unrealistically high. Historically speaking, players do not typically break arbitration records by much greater magnitudes than $1MM.
The arbitration model we use at MLB Trade Rumors has improved over the years. The typical average error is generally around $300K or slightly below, but it does vary significantly based on how many big misses there were in a given year. The more useful metric that we track is the number of players who ultimately earned a salary within 10% of our salary projection. This has steadily increased from 55% in 2012 to 65% in 2015 and hopefully will continue increasing going forward. We have added some other adjustments for this year’s model. Such bells and whistles usually increase predictive efficiency of the model but can hurt in some cases. As a result, our adjustments typically mimic the way that the arbitration process works.
An additional feature of our model at MLB Trade Rumors is that I also pen roughly ten articles each year on unique arbitration cases in a series we’ve previously titled Arbitration Breakdown. Within that series, I look at historical comps for the players in question to determine whether the model is likely to be accurate in a particular case. I personally look forward to not having to write about the challenges of predicting David Price’s salaries anymore, now that he is a free agent. This Price-less set of articles will be released in the coming months, while the actual forecasted salaries for every arbitration eligible player will appear on MLB Trade Rumors during the middle of this week.
Nationals Fire Matt Williams, Coaching Staff
10:45am: The Nationals announced that not only has Williams been fired, but the entire coaching staff has been let go as well. Bench coach Randy Knorr, pitching coach Steve McCatty, hitting coach Rick Schu, third base coach Bobby Henley, first base coach Tony Tarasco, bullpen coach Matt LeCroy and defensive coordinator Mark Weidemaier are all out, as the Nats will hire a new skipper and an entirely new field staff.
10:17am: The Nationals dismissed manager Matt Williams earlier this morning, a source tells James Wagner of the Washington Post (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote last Friday that his fate was sealed, and reports of communication issues from Heyman, the Post’s Barry Svrluga and others have been circulating for quite some time.
Believed by many to be the division favorite entering the season, the Nationals instead finished the year second place in the NL East by a wide margin and also failed to secure a Wild Card spot in the playoffs. Of course, injuries played a large role in the team’s underperformance — Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Denard Span, Jayson Werth, Stephen Strasburg and Doug Fister were among those to spend time on the DL — and an unexpectedly dreadful first half from Ian Desmond did the team little favors.
However, reports late in the season surfaced that suggested Williams’ cold demeanor didn’t sit well with players, and the aforementioned Svrluga report in particular chronicles a significant altercation with Werth while also mentioning communication issues with a number of veteran players. Bryce Harper gave Williams a vote of confidence late in the season, but shortly thereafter, the manager seemed inexplicably oblivious to a physical confrontation between Harper and trade acquisition Jonathan Papelbon. Harper called Papelbon’s antics “tired” after the closer threw near Manny Machado‘s head, telling the media that if anyone on the club was going to pay for it, it’d be Harper himself the following day in the form of retaliatory plunking. Days later, Papelbon would take issue with Harper, supposedly for not running out a fly-ball (though, as many have pointed out, Harper did reach first base prior to the ball being caught) and ultimately grab Harper by the throat and shove him after a heated exchange. Unaware of what had transpired at the other end of the dugout, Williams sent Papelbon out to pitch the next inning.
Williams won National League Manager of the Year honors in 2014 despite persistent questions regarding his bullpen management, which were highlighted in last year’s playoffs. His two-year tenure with the Nationals will conclude with a 179-145 record that looks impressive on paper but serves as a reminder that there’s much more to evaluating a manager than simply checking the win/loss column.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Duquette On Pitching Staff, Offseason, Chris Davis
Orioles general manager Dan Duquette joined Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com on 105.7 The Fan in Baltimore last night following the conclusion of the regular season and discussed a number of topics pertaining to the Orioles’ offseason. As Mewleski writes in summarizing much of the conversation, Duquette believes fixing the team’s pitching staff is his “No. 1 priority in the offseason.”
While he stressed a need for improvement from members of the pitching staff that will be returning for the 2016 season, Duquette also added, “…we’re also going to need to add pitching depth from outside the organization.”
The Orioles have a number of free agents this season, with Wei-Yin Chen and Darren O’Day leading the way among departing pitchers. Chen was unquestionably Baltimore’s best starting pitcher this season, as evidenced by a 3.34 ERA, 7.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 40.5 percent ground-ball rate across a career-best 191 1/3 innings. Orioles starters ranked 25th in baseball in 2015 with a 4.53 ERA, and removing Chen from the picture, the other Baltimore starters combined for an alarming 4.85 ERA.
Chen will receive and reject a qualifying offer, so the O’s will at least net a compensatory draft pick if he chooses to sign elsewhere this offseason. He’s clearly due for a considerably larger contract than his initial three-year, $11.388MM deal with the Orioles (which contained a since-exercised $4.75MM club option as well).
The hit to the bullpen is slightly more manageable, though that’s not to undersell O’Day’s value. The Orioles are simply better-equipped to lose an elite relief arm than they are a quality rotation piece; Zach Britton will reprise his role as closer, and he’ll be joined by a quality relief arm in Brad Brach. Brian Matusz, presumably, will return if today’s arthroscopic surgery on his left shoulder goes smoothly. Still, the loss of O’Day would sting, as the 32-year-old has a combined 1.92 ERA in his four years with the Orioles.
Turning to the position player side of the equation, Baltimore is set to lose Chris Davis, Matt Wieters, Steve Pearce and Gerardo Parra. While Duquette made general comments about a desire to retain all of those players, he also specifically expressed a desire to retain Davis: “Chris Davis in particular had a really good year. … It’s no secret the club would like to have him to come back and we’re going to do what we can.”
Of course, the question with Davis, a Scott Boras client coming off a 47-homer season, is whether or not Baltimore can afford him. The Orioles’ current franchise-record contract is Adam Jones‘ six-year, $85.5MM extension, but re-signing Davis would assuredly mean a new record-setting contract — one well in excess of $100MM. Duquette was asked by Melewski whether or not Davis could fit into the team’s payroll. “We have a very competitive market and we fund our payroll about in the middle and we have some flexibility in our payroll for next year. So, the answer to that question is I believe yes. I believe yes,” he replied. Duquette, though, went on to hedge the answer a bit, noting that a contract would have to have “a semblance of reason to it,” suggesting that the plan of attack won’t be to re-sign Davis at any and all costs.
It’s worth noting that there’s been some reported tension among the Orioles’ decision-makers, in part because of the failure to adequately replace Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis, who departed via free agency last winter. That doesn’t ensure that Duquette and his staff will go to drastic measures to retain Davis, but it’s worth wondering if there will be increased pressure to avoid similar internal scrutiny this offseason.
Angels Name Billy Eppler GM
11:59pm: The Angels have officially announced the hiring of Eppler, who receives a four-year contract to become the team’s GM. Eppler will report directly to owner Arte Moreno and, according to the team’s release, will “oversee all aspects of the club’s baseball operations.”
7:12pm: The Angels will announce tomorrow that Yankees assistant general manager Billy Eppler will be their next GM, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. Eppler will replace Jerry Dipoto, who resigned in July.
The Angels were, of course, eliminated from playoff contention today, so they won’t be playing the Yankees in the AL Wild Card game. FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal noted yesterday that the possibility of an Angels/Yankees matchup might be one reason the Angels were waiting to officially hire a top Yankees executive.
The Angels had been connected to a number of other candidates, including Dodgers executive Josh Byrnes (who had reportedly been the other top candidate), Red Sox assistant GM (and now GM) Mike Hazen, Blue Jays assistant Tony La Cava, Indians VP of player personnel Ross Atkins, Rangers assistant Thad Levine, Mariners farm director Chris Gwynn, and internal candidates Hal Morris, Matt Klentak and Scott Servais. Several reports, however, had previously named Eppler as the front-runner.
Eppler worked as a scout in the Rockies organization before being hired by the Yankees in 2004. In 2005, the Yankees promoted him to director of pro scouting, and he became assistant GM following the 2011 season. He had long been considered a future GM, and he interviewed for the Angels job in 2011 before it was ultimately awarded to Dipoto. Last year he interviewed for the Padres GM position, and he was also a potential candidate for the Diamondbacks job that went to Dave Stewart, although he declined to formally interview for that position. Eppler is a native of San Diego.
Eppler, 40, is generally regarded as likely to be statistically savvy, although he also has a scouting background, and it’s difficult to tell how a GM might make decisions until he or she actually becomes a GM. “He checks all the boxes,” Brian Cashman said of Eppler last year. “He’s got the analytics side checked off, he’s got the administrative side checked off and he’s got the scouting side checked off. He’s got the leadership side checked off because he’s a great communicator.”
Eppler will inherit a situation in Los Angeles that is in some ways envious and some ways not. Tension between Dipoto and manager Mike Scioscia led to Dipoto’s departure, and the fact that Scioscia remained while Dipoto left suggests that Eppler will have to find a way to work with Scioscia, regardless of any differences that might arise. Owner Arte Moreno has a reputation for being heavily involved with baseball decisions. Also, the Angels don’t have a particularly strong farm system.
On the other hand, he Angels won 85 games this season and have a relatively strong talent base led by one of the one or two best players in baseball in Mike Trout. That’s a rare starting point for an incoming GM. Eppler will also have access to a big budget, as Moreno has rarely been shy about spending on top-tier free agents.
Red Sox Notes: Dombrowski, Farrell, Lovullo, Baird
Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski’s career in the game began with an independent study project in college, Tim Britton of the Providence Journal writes. Dombrowski’s project was about general managers in baseball, and he sent big-league GMs questionnaires, receiving replies from around half. That led to a meeting with then-White Sox GM Roland Hemond, who later hired Dombrowski. After several years with the White Sox, Dombrowski headed from Chicago to Montreal, where he ultimately became general manager at the young age of 31. Here’s more out of Boston.
- As the Sox announced this morning, John Farrell will return to his post as manager of the Red Sox in 2016. Torey Lovullo, who managed the Red Sox to a 28-20 record while Farrell went through chemotherapy, will also return as bench coach and will not pursue other managerial possibilities. Dombrowski says (via Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe on Twitter) that Lovullo’s compensation will be above average for a bench coach. Via Alex Speier of the Globe (Twitter links), Farrell’s next three to six months could be difficult as he recovers. By retaining Lovullo, the Red Sox have given themselves a backup plan for Farrell while also limiting his stress as he gets healthy.
- Dombrowski will keep vice president of player personnel Allard Baird, a holdover from Ben Cherington’s staff, on board, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com writes. One of the former Royals general manager’s key duties with the Red Sox has been helping with international signings. Baird joins Farrell, Mike Hazen, pro scouting director Gus Quattlebaum, and director of amateur scouting Jared Banner, all of whom Dombrowski has elected to retain.
- Of course, many of the players will be back too, and Nick Cafardo of the Globe writes that one key to the Sox’ 2016 season will be getting better performances from disappointing, highly paid players like Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Rick Porcello and perhaps Allen Craig and Rusney Castillo. For Ramirez and Sandoval, that will begin with maintaining appropriate body weights. “You can’t discard somebody who’s making a guaranteed contact that’s worth a lot of money, so you have to be more patient and let them play,” says Lovullo.
Mike Scioscia Not Yet Commenting On Opt-Out
Now that the season is over, Angels manager Mike Scioscia can exercise an opt-out in his ten-year contract, but he isn’t saying whether he’ll do so, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register writes. “I’m going to see,” Scioscia said. “I’m not going to comment on anything.”
Of course, the Angels’ season ended today, so that Scioscia would receive a question about this matter today isn’t surprising, and it’s not necessarily meaningful that he’s not yet willing to commit to an answer. MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez reported last week that Scioscia was expected to remain in his position, and Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets tonight that Scioscia will not exercise his opt-out.
Still, Scioscia’s situation is worth noting, given the news this evening that the Angels plan to hire Billy Eppler as their GM. The Angels’ previous GM, Jerry Dipoto, departed in July after clashing with Scioscia. As Fletcher notes, Eppler likely wouldn’t have the authority to fire Scioscia, but perhaps it’s possible Scioscia might not want to work with a new GM.
Scioscia has three years left on the ten-year, $50MM contract to which he agreed prior to the 2009 season. He will be paid $6MM in each of the next three seasons. Scioscia has managed the Angels for 16 seasons, posting a 1416-1176 overall record and winning the World Series in 2002.
2016 MLB Draft Order
Now that the regular season is over, here’s a preliminary look at the 2016 MLB Draft order. This order will change as teams make decisions about extending qualifying offers and signing players who reject such offers.
Teams are given draft picks based on the reverse order of their 2015 records. If two teams have the same record, the team with the worse 2014 record gets the higher pick.
The first ten picks in next year’s draft will be protected, which leaves the Mariners as the first team on the outside looking in. The Mariners’ 76-86 record is the same as that of the White Sox, but the White Sox receive the last protected pick because they had a worse record in 2014. A team with a protected pick keeps that pick and only forfeits its next-best pick if it signs a free agent who has rejected a qualifying offer, which means that, for example, the White Sox won’t be penalized as heavily as the Mariners for signing a top-tier free agent this offseason.
1. Phillies 63-99
2. Reds 64-98
3. Braves 67-95
4. Rockies 68-94
5. Brewers 68-94
6. Athletics 68-94
7. Marlins 71-91
8. Padres 74-88
9. Tigers 74-88
10. White Sox 76-86
11. Mariners 76-86
12. Red Sox 78-84
13. Diamondbacks 79-83
14. Rays 80-82
15. Orioles 81-81
16. Indians 81-80
17. Twins 83-79
18. Nationals 83-79
19. Giants 84-78
20. Angels 85-77
21. Astros 86-76
22. Yankees 87-75
23. Rangers 88-74
24. Mets 90-72
25. Dodgers 92-70
26. Blue Jays 93-69
27. Royals 95-67
28. Cubs 97-65
29. Pirates 98-64
30. Cardinals 100-62
All of the first 29 picks in last year’s draft signed, so there won’t be any compensation picks in the first 30. However, the Dodgers will get the no. 36 pick for failing to sign Kyle Funkhouser, the Blue Jays will get the no. 57 pick for second-rounder Brady Singer, the Orioles will receive the no. 69 pick for second-rounder Jonathan Hughes, and the Twins will get the no. 74 pick for failing to sign Comp Round B pick Kyle Cody.
In addition, the 2016 Competitive Balance Lottery awarded a series of picks after the first and second rounds of next year’s draft. The Reds, Athletics, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Braves (via the Marlins) and Pirates, respectively, will have selections in Comp Round A after the first round, while the Padres, Indians, Twins, Brewers, Orioles and Rays have picks in Comp Round B following the second round. The exact spots of those picks are currently unknown due to uncertainties regarding the qualifying offer process, although Comp Round A picks generally begin in the mid-30s and Comp Round B picks begin at around no. 70.
Padres To Hire New Manager To Replace Pat Murphy
The Padres have formally announced that interim manager Pat Murphy will not return to the team as manager next season, and that they’ll look for a new manager to take his place. The decision was widely expected, with a report last night indicating that the team was already considering Triple-A manager and former Padres star Phil Nevin for the position.
Following a splashy offseason, the Padres got off to a disappointing 32-33 start and fired longtime manager Bud Black. Murphy took over in June and didn’t fare any better, going 42-54 as the team fell further out of contention. 2015 was Murphy’s first season as a big-league manager. Previously, he’d served as a head coach at Notre Dame and Arizona State before joining the Padres organization in 2010 and serving for several years as a manager in the minors.
It’s currently unclear whether Murphy will stay with the organization in some capacity. If he doesn’t, the Brewers might well have interest in him — as Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel notes (Twitter links), new Brewers manager Craig Counsell tried to hire Murphy earlier this season.
GM A.J. Preller will now have the opportunity to hire a manager for the first time. The Padres finished 74-88 after Preller traded away a number of top prospects to remake them last winter, and now they face the departures of Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy. One would think that the Padres manager position would not be a highly desirable one at this point, except insofar as any of the 30 managerial positions are desirable.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- In the most recent edition of the MLBTR Mailbag, Steve Adams fielded questions on Carlos Beltran‘s Hall of Fame credentials, managers who could get canned, the Tigers’ late-inning needs, and more. You can submit questions for the mailbag at any time throughout the week via email – mlbtrmailbag@gmail.com.
- Mark Polishuk ran down three major offseason needs for the White Sox.
- If you missed out on this week’s chat with Steve, you can get caught up with the transcript.
- Recently, MLB Trade Rumors launched a brand new official Instagram account:@TradeRumorsMLB. Each day, we’re sharing conversation-inspiring images about the hottest topics in baseball. From there, we invite you to give us a like, weigh in with your thoughts in the comments section, and even share the link with a friend. So, what are you waiting for? If you don’t have an Instagram account, this is the perfect excuse to sign up and get one. Follow us on Instagram today!
- On Sunday morning, we ran down the best blog posts from around the web in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.