Trade Candidate: Marcell Ozuna
A year ago, Marcell Ozuna was hitting .255/.312/421 with 16 homers on the season, and a strong finish to the 2014 campaign would boost those numbers to .269/.317/.455. Paired with above-average center field defense, that production made the then-23-year-old Ozuna look like a core piece in a dynamic young Marlins outfield that could be controlled for the next five seasons.
The 2015 season, though, hasn’t been kind to Ozuna. Through his first 79 contests this season, Ozuna batted .249/.301/.337, including a staggering 1-for-36 slump that saw him strike out 14 times in 37 plate appearances. At that point, the Marlins felt it best for Ozuna to collect himself in the minors and sent him to Triple-A.
Ozuna was excellent in his minor league stint — .317/.379/.558, five homers in 21 games — but he didn’t sound overly thrilled with the fairly lengthy nature of his stay. Ozuna recently returned from that 33-day stint at Triple-A and likened his demotion to a jail sentence. Previously, agent Scott Boras had accused the Marlins of holding Ozuna down in the minor leagues in order to limit his service time and prevent him from reaching arbitration. Additionally, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported early in the year that there was some frustration over a dip in Ozuna’s speed, leading some in the organization to question his conditioning.
Ozuna’s name crept up in trade rumors prior to the non-waiver deadline, with the Indians surfacing as one team with particular interest. And, just yesterday, Jackson reported that “at least one prominent Marlins person” is open to dangling Ozuna in trades this winter, though there are others in the front office who are more inclined to hang onto him.
Trading Ozuna would be selling low on a player that could certainly blossom into a premium talent, but that same upside would probably be enough to net the Marlins an enticing return. The Marlins are expected to seek two starting pitchers this winter, and for a team with a limited budget, using Ozuna as a trade chip could help to add a cost-controlled young arm to a rotation that will be fronted by a (hopefully) healthy Jose Fernandez.
Because he spent 33 days in the minor leagues this season, Ozuna will accrue 150 days of Major League service time, placing him at two years, 131 days of service. The early projection for Super Two eligibility this season was two years, 140 days, making it easy to see why Boras was upset with the demotion (though questioning the motives for the demotion and the length of stay in the minors would carry more weight if Ozuna hadn’t been playing so poorly prior to being sent down). Ozuna has a chance to be arbitration eligible this winter but could very well fall just shy, meaning any team that acquires him could get one season near the league minimum plus three arbitration years before Ozuna qualifies for free agency after the 2019 season.
The upside of those four years is significant; Ozuna was worth roughly four wins above replacement last season as a 23-year-old, and there hasn’t been an enormous change in his approach this season with the exception of a dip in power. Ozuna’s strikeout rate has actually improved, and his line-drive rate has increased while his walk rate has remained a steady, if unspectacular 6.4 percent. The loss of power is a concern, but if a team feels the decline to be mechanical in nature or feels that its hitting instructors can restore the lost pop, Ozuna could be a well above-average player for a team for at least the next four seasons.
Miami could conceivably trade him to address part of its need in the rotation and either continue using Christian Yelich in center field (perhaps with Derek Dietrich manning left field) or seek a different center field acquisition. The Indians still make sense as a team to revisit talks, while the Mariners, Giants, Brewers and Padres are just a few clubs that could have a need for a long-term center field option this winter (speculatively speaking, of course).
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Nationals Notes: Harris, Desmond, Williams
James Wagner of the Washington Post’s latest column is an excellent, in-depth look at Nationals assistant general manager Doug Harris, who draws strong praise from his colleagues within the Washington front office and from the players whose development he has aided over the years. Both Steven Souza and Tyler Moore told Wagner they wouldn’t be in the Majors were it not for Harris’ dedication and belief in their abilities, even at their lowest points. Wagner looks at Harris’ history as a former prospect who broke down due to injury, only to work his way into the other side of the game by becoming a scout in the Rangers organization. “He’d be a very strong candidate if you look at the next wave of general manager candidates,” said Braves president of baseball operations John Hart. “…He brings a field background and scouting background into everything. He understands the whole analytics and creative pieces. But he also has really good feel for players and the game.” Wagner’s article is well worth a read in its entirety, particularly for Nationals fans or for those fans whose team will be on the hunt for a new GM this offseason.
More on the Nationals…
- Anthony Castrovince of MLB.com looks at five things the Nationals will need to do in order to overtake the Mets en route to a division title. Included in his list is better production from the middle infield, and he notes that while Ian Desmond has looked better of late, he’s had other encouraging signs this season that didn’t have staying power. Castrovince notes that, if Desmond’s struggles return, he could lose out on playing time to Danny Espinosa over the season’s final weeks, and a promotion for top prospect Trea Turner in September can’t be ruled out either.
- The Nationals recent struggles have some questioning the job security of manager Matt Williams, writes Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today. Ortiz spoke with GM Mike Rizzo about Williams, and while Rizzo stopped short of giving him a full vote of confidence, he did offer praise to the second-year skipper: “I’ve had nothing but complimentary things to say about our manager since we hired him.”
- Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron also looks at the Nationals’ slide and wonders if moving on from Williams would boost the team’s chances in the final weeks of the regular season. Blame can’t solely be placed on Williams, though, Cameron points out. The Nationals have received what amounts to replacement-level production from the group of Anthony Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman, Wilson Ramos, Ian Desmond, Doug Fister and Stephen Strasburg. Cameron wonders if Werth should even hold down a starting spot over Michael Taylor when Denard Span returns, though he notes that benching a veteran player in favor of a rookie isn’t the type of move we should expect from a manager who may be on the hot seat. While Williams can’t fix his struggling players instantaneously, he “might be the most replaceable in the organization,” Cameron opines, and the mounting losses only increase the pressure to do something to spark a change.
Reed, Rodney, Axford, Mujica, Aardsma Clear Waivers
Right-handers Addison Reed, Fernando Rodney, John Axford, Edward Mujica and David Aardsma have all cleared revocable trade waivers, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post, making them eligible to be dealt to any club.
Of the listed group, only the veteran Aardsma has even posted a sub-4.00 ERA this season, as the 33-year-old has a 3.95 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 27 1/3 innings with the Braves. He’s generating grounders at just a 29.9 percent clip though and has had some home run issues to go along with his questionable control. Aardsma inked a minor league deal with the Braves, so his salary for the remainder of the season is light in comparison to the peers with whom he’s listed.
Reed, 26, was an up-and-coming closer not long ago was viewed in a strong enough light for the D-Backs to surrender one of their top prospects (Matt Davidson) for him in the 2013-14 offseason. His first season with the Diamondbacks resulted in a 4.25 ERA, however, and he’s up to 4.46 this season. Reed lost his job to Brad Ziegler earlier in the year and has been demoted to Triple-A this season.
Since returning, Reed has yielded just one run on nine hits and a walk with eight strikeouts in 10 innings, so things do look considerably brighter of late. However, Reed is also earning $4.875MM this season, and he’s still owed about $1.33MM of that sum through season’s end. He’s controllable through the 2017 season but is a definite non-tender candidate following the season, as he’ll top $5MM via arbitration despite his 2015 struggles.
The 38-year-old Rodney is perhaps the least surprising name on Sherman’s list. In 50 innings this season, he’s posted a 5.05 ERA with diminished strikeout (7.6 K/9) and walk (4.1 BB/9) rates to go along with a career-worst 1.44 HR/9 rate. Rodney’s fastball is averaging 94.9 mph, so he still has plenty of heat, but the results haven’t been there in 2015, and he’s owed $1.91MM of his $7MM salary through season’s end.
Axford, 32, has seen his share of struggles as well in his first year with the Rockies. Axford began the year in dominant fashion, yielding just one run in 19 innings and usurping LaTroy Hawkins as the Colorado closer. However, in the 19 2/3 innings that have followed that initial stretch, he’s been tagged for 19 runs on a dismal 29 hits and 15 walks. Teams in search of relief help may have some degree of hope that Coors Field has contributed to his poor results of late; Axford does have a 5.32 ERA in Denver versus a 3.78 ERA on the road. But, walks are walks in any park, and Axford has issued 10 free passes in 16 2/3 innings on the road.
Mujica has already been designated for assignment once this season (by the Red Sox), and his numbers have only worsened following a trade to the Athletics. The 31-year-old is still showing excellent control (1.3 BB/9 rate), but he’s averaging just six strikeouts per nine innings and has been entirely too hittable. Opponents are batting .309/.336/.525 against Mujica in 2015, and the result has been an unsightly 5.25 ERA. Even if he weren’t owed $1.3MM through the end of the season, he’d be a tough sell as a bullpen upgrade for a team seeking relief help.
Each of these relievers has been added to MLBTR’s list of players that have cleared revocable waivers, which can be always be found under the MLBTR Features on the right-hand sidebar for desktop users.
West Notes: Shoemaker, Holland, Padres, Cain
The Angels demoted righty Matt Shoemaker to Triple-A today, capping off what has been a disappointing season for the 28-year-old. Coming off an impressive 2014 rookie campaign, Shoemaker has been inconsistent this year, and his rough last two outings (13 ER in just 7 1/3 combined innings) apparently convinced the Angels that he needed a breather in the minors. Shoemaker has a 4.76 ERA over 117 1/3 innings this season, though advanced metrics — such as a 3.80 SIERA, 4.01 xFIP, 8.1 K/9 and 3.5 K/BB rate — suggest he’s pitched better than his ERA indicates. Shoemaker’s demotion leaves the Halos with a four-man rotation for now; right-hander Nick Tropeano is probably a good bet to be promoted, as he’s already made a couple of spot starts for Los Angeles this season.
Here’s some more from both the AL and NL West divisions…
- The Rangers will decide tomorrow whether Derek Holland will be activated from the DL and start on Wednesday, Gerry Fraley of the Dallas Morning News writes. Holland told reporters that he felt good after a full bullpen session today, and he is ready to make just his second appearance of 2015. Holland has played in just seven games in 2014-15 due to knee surgery, back spasms and a shoulder injury, the latter being responsible for his current DL stint.
- The Padres didn’t move any of their big names prior to the July trade deadline and ESPN’s Christina Kahrl believes the team may similarly stand pat in August. Dealing away controllable young players wouldn’t have helped the team contend in 2016, and veterans like Ian Kennedy or Joaquin Benoit wouldn’t have brought premium prospects back in return. As for bigger-name veterans, Justin Upton may not have netted more than the first-round pick the Padres would obtain when Upton rejects a qualifying offer and possibly leaves in free agency this winter. As for James Shields, Kahrl points out that the righty had a long wait on the open market last winter, so teams who passed on Shields then may not be eager to give up prospects to acquire him now.
- It took a lot of work to get Colin Rea to the majors, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes in a profile of the rookie right-hander’s growth from being a lightly-regarded project of a prospect to a Padres starter.
- The moving and organizational switches that come with being a pro ballplayer can be especially hard for a player’s family, the Arizona Republic’s Zach Buchanan illustrates in an interview with Taylor Ray (wife of Diamondbacks lefty Robbie Ray) and the wives of several other D’Backs players.
- Mike Leake‘s return from the DL this week will force the Giants to make a pitching roster move, and CSNBayArea.com’s Alex Pavlovic writes that bumping Matt Cain from the rotation is an option the club is considering. Cain has struggled through an injury-plagued season, posting a 6.05 ERA in only 41 2/3 innings.
NL East Notes: Ozuna, Marlins, Collins, Utley
Marcell Ozuna‘s 33-game stint in Triple-A was “like a jail” to the outfielder, as he tells Adam Zuvanich of the Miami Herald. The Marlins demoted Ozuna in July ostensibly due to his early-season struggles, though agent Scott Boras believed the Fish were keeping Ozuna in the minors to deny his client MLB service time and prevent his arbitration eligibility. “I know what happened when they sent me down. I knew that’s coming,” Ozuna said. “I don’t go there for work, because they know me. I don’t need the work. One for 36, 1 for 100, every big-league player has it. I have it and everybody has it.” Ozuna rejoined the Marlins this weekend after Christian Yelich went on the disabled list.
Here’s more from Miami and elsewhere around the NL East…
- Some in the Marlins front office want to keep Ozuna rather than explore trades for him this offseason, the Miami Herald’s Barry Jackson reports, though “at least one prominent Marlins person is open” to moving the outfielder. Ozuna drew trade interest from several teams (including the Indians) prior to the deadline.
- Also from Jackson’s column, he writes that the Marlins want to wait until after the season to make their intended managerial change so that they know the full pool of candidates before making a decision. This will allow the team to include any current managers in their search should those skippers be fired; Jackson cites the Dodgers’ Don Mattingly as an example. Jackson adds that there’s no front-runner for the job, though previous managing experience will be an important criteria.
- Mets manager Terry Collins isn’t concerned about his contract status, telling Newsday’s Steven Marcus that he has “no idea” if the club will discuss an extension with him while the season is still going. “I’m telling you, I don’t think about it. I think about playing golf in November. That’s the only thing on my mind right now,” Collins said. Collins’ deal expires at the end of the season though the Mets hold an option on his services for 2016. A team spokesman tells Marcus that the Mets will “address [a possible extension] at the proper time,” which I would presume refers to after the season is over.
- Assuming the Mets make the postseason or fall just short, Matthew Cerrone of Metsblog.com suspects the team will exercise their 2016 option on Collins and extend his deal through the 2017 season. It would “border on disrespectful,” Cerrone feels, if the Mets didn’t have Collins extended before next Spring Training given how the skipper has exceeded expectations since being hired as somewhat of a transitional manager.
- The Mets need to acquire yet another bullpen arm to address their still-struggling relief corps, Joel Sherman of the New York Post opines.
- Phillies interim manager Pete Mackanin admitted that it’s difficult to find playing time for trade candidate Chase Utley, as Andrew Gruman of MLB.com writes. “I mean, yeah, we like ‘Ut’. It is an issue for me, because I have to try to play everybody, and the guys that deserve to play, like [Cesar] Hernandez and so forth, I want them to play. But I want Utley to play, too. It is not an easy task for me, but we’ll do what we can,” Mackanin said.
- Nationals assistant GM Doug Harris is profiled by James Wagner of the Washington Post. Harris oversees the club’s farm system and manages the Nats’ pro scouting department in addition to other duties, and is seen as a potential future general manager by many around baseball; just earlier today, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo tabbed Harris as a contender to be the Brewers’ next GM.
Royals Sign Wandy Rodriguez, Joba Chamberlain To Minors Contracts
The Royals have agreed to terms with left-hander Wandy Rodriguez and right-hander Joba Chamberlain on minor league deals, the team announced (via Twitter). Robert Murray of Baseball Essential tweeted yesterday that Rodriguez was joining the Royals. Rodriguez is represented by WMG, while Chamberlain is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Rodriguez, 36, posted a 4.90 ERA over 86 1/3 innings with the Rangers this season before being released by the team a few weeks ago. ERA indicators (4.41 SIERA, 4.30 FIP, 4.35 xFIP) indicate that Rodriguez’s 4.90 ERA is perhaps a bit inflated by his .328 BABIP. The southpaw owned a 3.20 ERA through his first 11 starts with Texas before his performance dipped, lowlighted by a pair of particularly rough outings against the A’s and Yankees (15 ER in a combined five innings).
Though he’ll currently be slated as minor league depth, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Rodriguez promoted to Kansas City’s rotation. Rodriguez’s modest 1.0 fWAR for 2015 tops every Royals starter except for Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez, so the lefty could be an option if the Royals want a change from the inconsistent Yordano Ventura or the struggling Jeremy Guthrie. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of Rodriguez’s release, the Royals had a need for a veteran depth arm given their recent loss of Jason Vargas to Tommy John surgery.
Chamberlain posted a 4.09 ERA, 6.1 K/9 and a 3.00 K/BB rate over 22 bullpen innings for the Tigers this season before he was released in July. He signed a minor league deal with the Blue Jays but opted out on Friday after a brief but rough stint at Triple-A Buffalo. Chamberlain may be little more than a pure depth signing for K.C. given how the Royals already boast perhaps the game’s best bullpen.
Minor MLB Transactions: 8/16/15
Here are the latest minor moves, with the newest transactions at the top of the post…
- The Braves purchased the contract of right-hander Peter Moylan from Triple-A Gwinnett prior to today’s game, and the Australian tossed two-thirds of an inning in the 2-1 win over the Diamondbacks. This was Moylan’s first Major League outing since 2013; the 36-year-old has been plagued by injuries over the last five years, most notably missing all of 2014 recovering from Tommy John surgery. Moylan signed a minor league deal with Atlanta this past March and he’s posted a 3.14 ERA over 28 2/3 Triple-A innings.
- Amidst a flurry of call-ups and DL placements today, the Angels purchased the contract of shortstop Ryan Jackson from Triple-A. To create a 40-man roster spot, C.J. Wilson was transferred to the 60-day disabled list. Jackson joined the Angels organization in May after being dealt from Kansas City for Drew Butera, and he has hit .293/.371/.373 in 363 plate appearances for Triple-A Salt Lake City. Jackson’s big league experience consists of 25 PA with the Cardinals in 2012-13.
- Right-hander Taylor Thompson has cleared waivers and been outrighted to the Athletics‘ Triple-A affiliate, MLB.com’s Jane Lee reports (Twitter link). Thompson, who’s been limited to just 8 2/3 minor league innings this season due to a shoulder injury, was designated for assignment on Friday.
- While Thompson is now out of “DFA Limbo,” nine players are still awaiting their next assignment. Check out the MLB Trade Rumors DFA Tracker to keep track of their status.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Cruz, Parra, Orioles
The Yankees fell to the Blue Jays 3-1 today, but the pitching of Luis Severino was definitely a bright spot for the Bombers. In six innings of work, Severino struck out a career-high nine batters while walking three and surrendering five total hits. As Brandon Kuty of the Star-Ledger writes, it’s an encouraging sign for the Yankees, who refused to deal the promising youngster at the deadline. Here’s a look at the other teams in the AL East…
- David Ortiz lobbied the Red Sox to go out and get slugger Nelson Cruz, but Boston didn’t make a play for him, WEEI’s John Tomase writes. “He was all in,” Cruz said. “Anytime we played, he reminded me that he wanted me here. It meant a lot. I’m a fan of him, and also a good friend. When a player like him, a future Hall of Famer, requests for you to play with him, it’s definitely something that grabs you.” The Red Sox might be in a different position today if they went out and got Cruz to play left field instead of Hanley Ramirez, Tomase writes. Ramirez got a four-year, $88MM deal from the Red Sox while Cruz signed for $57MM over four.
- The Orioles should try and lock up newly-acquired outfielder Gerardo Parra, Peter Schmuck of The Baltimore Sun opines. Parra, he writes, gives the O’s the on-base potential and the defensive ability that they lose when Nick Markakis left via free agency. Parra, who is earning $6MM in 2015, will probably be in line for a pay raise.
- The Rays shouldn’t wait to promote pitcher Blake Snell, Steve Kinsella of Sports Talk Florida writes. The 22-year-old former first-round pick has looked great in five Triple-A starts, posting a 1.48 ERA with 12.9 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- MLB Trade Rumors is now on Instagram! Follow us today – @traderumorsmlb.
- It’s often dangerous to read too much into a hot streak, but several shortstops who will be free agents this offseason are turning it on at the right time, Steve Adams writes. Ian Desmond and Asdrubal Cabrera are amongst those who could cash in this winter.
- Jeff Todd checked in on the free agent stock of Orioles lefty Wei-Yin Chen. Ultimately, Chen is likely to earn quite a bit more money than we might have anticipated coming into the 2015 season, though he’ll be entering a robust market of mid-tier pitching types.
- If Brett Anderson can stay healthy, he’ll be highly valued this offseason, as Charlie Wilmoth writes. Thus far, he has a 3.48 ERA, 6.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 through 134 2/3 innings and hasn’t missed a start all year.
- If you missed out on Steve’s weekly chat, click here to get caught up with the transcript.
Latest On Phillies, Chase Utley
Chase Utley wants to join a contender on the West Coast and preferably in his native Southern California, two executives involved in the discussions told Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The second baseman holds full no-trade rights, so he’ll have say over where he goes or whether he leaves Philly at all.
The Angels and Giants are said to have interest, but Rosenthal writes that the right fit might never arise for the Phillies and the 36-year-old. Utley has never asked the Phillies for a trade and would only leave the organization reluctantly, sources tell the FOX Sports scribe. Also, while teams are interested, they are reluctant to give up much for a seven-week rental who is owed $6MM+, including a $2MM buyout on his 2016 option.
On the flipside, Utley could have incentive to green light a trade since going to a contender could enhance his value this winter. The Phillies could also sweeten the pot with some cash to get a suitable return and make a deal happen.
The Cubs are still in the mix for the veteran, but given his California preference, they are not his first choice. The Cubs also might not want to disrupt a team that has won 15 of its last 16 games heading into today’s contest against the White Sox, Rosenthal writes. The Yankees could offer more playing time than any other suitor, but they’re on the wrong coast for the veteran. The Dodgers, in theory, fit the bill as a Cali contender with a need at second base, but Howie Kendrick could return in two weeks and Kiké Hernandez has been doing well in that spot so far.