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The Opener: Skenes, Munoz, Eflin

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Skenes to face the Dodgers:

Four starts into his big league career, Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes has lived up to his reputation as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft and the consensus top pitching prospect in baseball. After a shaky major league debut, Skenes has allowed just three in three starts while dominating the Cubs, Giants, and Tigers with 23 strikeouts in his past 18 innings of work. That’s all come together to give the 22-year-old a 2.45 ERA and 2.41 FIP with a huge 35.7% strikeout rate across 22 innings in the majors.

Tonight, Skenes is set to face the biggest challenge of his young career as he takes the mound against the Dodgers. With a trio of MVPs at the top of the order in Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman, the L.A. offense has established itself as the class of the National League, leading the league in OBP (.333), ISO (.174), and wRC+ (120) despite struggles from bottom-of-the-order hitters like Gavin Lux, Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez. Last night’s game saw the other rising star in Pittsburgh’s rotation, lefty Jared Jones, dazzle against the Dodgers with six scoreless innings and six strikeouts in a 1-0 Pirates victory. Skenes will attempt to lead the club to victory in similar fashion at 6:40pm local time tonight opposite veteran lefty James Paxton (3.29 ERA).

2. Munoz to undergo MRI:

Mariners closer Andres Munoz exited last night’s game when a play at the plate against A’s infielder Max Schuemann resulted in a collision caused left Munoz to hit the ground awkwardly. Following the game, manager Scott Servais told reporters (including Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) that the incident aggravated a lower back issue Munoz has been dealing with. The 25-year-old will undergo an MRI to determine the severity of the issue.

One of the most talented closers in the game, Munoz has posted a sterling 1.73 ERA while striking out 35.6% of batters faced this season and converting 12 of 13 save opportunities across 26 innings. That dominant performance has been especially helpful for a Seattle bullpen that has been without both Matt Brash and Gregory Santos all season and recently lost lefty Gabe Speier to the injured list as well. Lefty Tayler Saucedo stepped in to finish last night’s game after Munoz departed, and he could be a candidate for the ninth inning alongside veteran righty Ryne Stanek in the event that Munoz requires a trip to the injured list.

3. Eflin to be activated:

The Rays are set to welcome right-hander Zach Eflin back from the injured list today for a start against the Marlins, as noted by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 30-year-old is in the second season of a three-year, $40MM pact that looks like a shrewd investment. In 41 starts for the Rays, Eflin has posted a 3.65 ERA (112 ERA+) with an excellent 3.17 FIP while striking out 24.2% of batters in 236 2/3 innings of work. That FIP is good for seventh among all pitchers with at least 200 innings since the start of the 2023 campaign.

Eflin’s return is key for the Rays as they attempt to work their way back into the AL playoff picture. The club is currently tied with the Red Sox for third place in the AL East with a 30-31 record, placing them 3.5 games back in the AL Wild Card race. With the trade deadline less than two months away, Eflin could become a trade candidate for the Rays this summer if they’re unable to get over .500 and put themselves more firmly into the playoff conversation. That effort will continue at 6:40pm local time tonight, when Eflin takes the mound against Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett (4.56 ERA).

Fantasy Baseball: Leveraging Splits For Targeted Streaming

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Hello friends.

At the end of April, we took a peek at one of my favorite subjects, honing in on team performances vs pitcher handedness splits, trying to identify the teams to start taking advantage of, and those we should maybe try to avoid.

TL;DR

Streaming against bad teams is usually obvious but what kind of pitchers different teams do poorly against isn't always so straightforward. Teams can be bad vs both hands or good vs both hands but sometimes there is a big gap between LHP/RHP results and that's the space where you can often find advantages. While your league-mates are simply avoiding good offenses and/or targeting bad ones, we can hone in with more specificity and leverage less obvious plays.

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Padres Showing Strong Interest In Garrett Crochet

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The Padres are showing strong interest in left-hander Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, per a report from Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The report cautions that no deal is imminent but it also states that the Friars have been the most aggressive club in pursuing Crochet.

Significant trades are fairly rare at this time of the year, with the trade deadline still almost two months away. However, there are reasons why it’s not so far-fetched with these two clubs. The two sides already lined up on a notable deal at an odd time not too long ago, when the Sox sent Dylan Cease to the Padres in the middle of March, just as the season was about to begin. Each club has also made a noteworthy trade since that time, with the Sox sending Robbie Grossman to the Rangers in early May and the Padres acquiring Luis Arráez from the Marlins around the same time.

For the Sox, they have been aggressively rebuilding for about a year now, selling off just about any player nearing free agency. For the Padres, it’s a part of their general modus operandi, as president of baseball operations A.J. Preller seems to have a strong will to explore all possible avenues for upgrading the club even if those overtures fall outside of standard operating procedure.

But there are also reasons why a deal may not get done. Crochet is in a very unique situation, which makes him less straightforward than other players the Sox have traded. He is still quite young, only 24 years old, turning 25 later this month. He is still under club control for two more years after this one and is only making $800K this year. That’s a reflection of both his quick ascent to the majors and his injury troubles, as he was in the big leagues by his age-21 season but has missed significant time and hasn’t been able to push his salary up.

The Sox put Crochet in the bullpen when they first called him up, an understandable move at the time given his youth and lack of experience. But he then required Tommy John surgery in April of 2022, which prevented him from pitching at all in 2022 and limited him to just 13 appearances last year.

His time spent on the injured list allowed him to reach arbitration in the most recent offseason, but the lengthy absence meant that he barely pushed his salary above the $740K league minimum. Despite a fairly limited innings tally, the Sox decided to stretch him out this year and the results have been excellent. Crochet has thrown 69 2/3 innings over his 13 starts this year, allowing 3.49 earned runs per nine innings. He has struck out 33.7% of batters faced, limited walks to a 5.4% clip and also gotten grounders on 45.2% of balls in play.

For the Sox, they suddenly seem to have an ace on their hands, one who is still young and cheap and doesn’t have a ton on mileage on his arm. But on the other hand, his early promotion and Tommy John layoff means that he’s getting close-ish to free agency. Given the state of the Sox, it’s hard to imagine them returning to contention in the time frame of his club control, as their current record of 15-45 is easily the worst in the league.

Signing Crochet to an extension would be one way to avoid the trade path, but the lefty would have to agree to that. Thanks to his early call-up, he’s currently slated to reach free agency shortly after his 27th birthday, a rarely young age that could leave him well positioned to cash in a couple of years from now. The most recent offseason was rough for a lot of players, as many of them had to settle for deals well below expectations. But two players who blew past predictions were Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee, both of whom were 25 years old.

If that leaves the Sox open to a trade, the time to do it is now when Crochet’s value is highest. By the offseason, they will only be able to market two postseason runs instead of three, while Crochet’s salary will also increase via arbitration.

But whether the Padres can pull off such a trade is another question, something that Lin and Rosenthal highlight in their report. The Friars have traded away many prospects in recent years, including in the aforementioned deals for Cease and Arráez, as well as for Juan Soto, Josh Hader, Sean Manaea and others. Per today’s report, the Sox would probably need to bring back a significant position player in any Crochet deal. The report mentions prospects Ethan Salas and Leodalis De Vries as possibilities but adds that the Padres are reluctant to part with either of those two in a Crochet deal.

Whether a deal can be done remains to be seen, but it’s understandable why the Padres are sniffing around for starting pitching. They recently put Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish on the injured list, subtracting two of their most established starters. They still have Cease, but the rotation gets flimsy after that. Michael King was mostly a reliever until about a year ago and is still in the process of cementing himself as a big league starter. Matt Waldron and Randy Vásquez each have less than 105 major league innings pitched in their respective careers while Adam Mazur is going to be called up to make his major league debut this week.

Despite the rotation struggles, the club is currently 32-31 and holding onto a Wild Card spot. Proactively acquiring Crochet or any starting pitcher now, as opposed to waiting until the deadline in late July, could help the club stay afloat in what is shaping up to be a very competitive National League playoff race.

Phillies Notes: Suarez, Sosa, Klentak

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The Phillies were dealt a scare over the weekend when Ranger Suárez took a comeback line-drive off his throwing hand. While that raised initial concern about a potential injured list stint, the southpaw avoided any fractures.

Suárez played catch without issue today and is scheduled for a bullpen session on Wednesday, manager Rob Thomson told reporters (via the MLB.com injury tracker). The Phils will know after tomorrow’s throwing session whether Suárez can take the ball for his next start. The 28-year-old would be lined up opposite Sean Manaea and the Mets on Saturday in London.

Arguably the best pitcher in the majors through two months, Suárez carries an MLB-leading 1.70 ERA over 74 innings. He has punched out 28.5% of batters faced while running an excellent 53.7% ground-ball rate. Opposing hitters have turned in a pitiful .167/.225/.261 slash line over 277 trips to the plate. Suárez, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sánchez have all been excellent, giving the Phillies perhaps the top rotation in MLB.

That’s one of myriad reasons the Phils have built a seven-game lead over the Braves in the NL East. Philadelphia’s 43-19 record matches the Yankees’ mark for the best in the majors. They haven’t missed a beat despite losing Trea Turner to a hamstring strain exactly a month ago.

Edmundo Sosa has excelled since taking over for Turner. Sosa is hitting .303/.367/.556 in 110 plate appearances. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved have credited him with plus glovework in more than 200 shortstop innings. Sosa’s performance has unquestionably been propped up by a .394 average on balls in play — his 6.4% walk rate and 26.4% strikeout percentage are each a bit worse than the respective league marks — but he’s hitting for a lot more power than expected. Sosa has connected on four homers and triples apiece and picked up five doubles in only 33 games.

While he’s certainly playing well enough to stick in the lineup, he’s not going to displace Turner when the latter is healthy. Neither Bryson Stott nor Alec Bohm is offering much of an opportunity for Sosa to take over at second or third base. While Sosa has never started an MLB game in the outfield, Thomson suggested over the weekend the Phils could consider playing him in a corner outfield spot once Turner comes back.

“Absolutely [a possibility],” the manager told reporters (link via Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). “If he keeps hitting like this, it’s going to be tough to keep him out of the lineup. So, got to find a spot for him someplace.” The Phils subsequently lost Brandon Marsh to the injured list, leading them to call up the hot-hitting David Dahl to man left field. Nick Castellanos is playing everyday in right field. He has been a rare weak point in the Philadelphia lineup, struggling to a .214/.277/.342 line through 256 plate appearances.

Few would’ve anticipated the Phillies looking for ways to keep Sosa in the lineup when he was acquired in a relatively low-profile deadline deal two years ago. Philadelphia landed the infielder from the Cardinals in a one-for-one swap sending lefty JoJo Romero to St. Louis. It has turned out to a be a surprisingly consequential trade for both clubs, as Romero has developed into the Cards’ second-best reliever.

The Sosa acquisition is a nice feather in the cap for baseball operations president Dave Dombrowski and his staff. It’s one of a number of strong pickups for the Dombrowksi-led front office, as one would expect on the top team in the National League. As the Inquirer’s Scott Lauber explored over the weekend, the prior regime led by former general manager Matt Klentak also deserves some credit for putting part of the roster in place.

Klentak, who is now working in the Milwaukee front office, led baseball operations in Philadelphia for five seasons. He held the GM role between October 2015 and the end of the 2020 campaign. While a rebuilding Phils club didn’t make the postseason during Klentak’s tenure, Lauber observes that Philadelphia acquired Harper, Wheeler, J.T. Realmuto, and Cristopher Sánchez, as well as drafting Stott and Bohm, during that five-year window.

As with any front office tenure, Klentak and his staff had some misses (e.g. selecting Mickey Moniak first overall in an admittedly weak 2016 draft and extending Scott Kingery). Still, there’s no question the Phils made a number of key moves in the 2010s that have contributed to the team’s success over the first half of this decade.

Lauber’s piece is a reminder that most organizations turn over front offices quickly enough that any good roster is a product of multiple regimes. Suárez and Nola were first acquired during Ruben Amaro Jr.’s GM stint. The Phils have added Turner, Kyle Schwarber, Sosa, and overhauled the bullpen since Dombrowski has been at the helm. Dombrowski’s group has also hammered out new deals to keep each of Nola, Realmuto and Wheeler in Philadelphia for the long haul.

Mariners, Matt Bowman Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Mariners are in agreement with reliever Matt Bowman on a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (X link). The ZS Sports client would be paid at a $1MM base rate if he cracks the MLB roster and has multiple unspecified opt-out chances, Heyman adds.

Bowman elected free agency after being waived by the Diamondbacks last week. The 33-year-old has already spent time in the majors with both the Twins and D-Backs this season. He made nine appearances between the two clubs, logging 14 1/3 innings of eight-run ball. He fanned 10 hitters against six walks while running a higher than average 47.7% ground-ball rate.

A sinkerballer, Bowman has made his living keeping the ball on the ground. He has a huge 55.7% grounder percentage in just shy of 200 career MLB innings. The vast majority of that work came with the Cardinals and Reds between 2016-19. Injuries essentially robbed him of the 2020-22 seasons. Bowman underwent Tommy John surgery late in the ’20 campaign and didn’t return to full health until last season. He spent most of last year in Triple-A with the Yankees, turning in a 3.99 ERA with a decent 22.6% strikeout rate and a 51.9% grounder percentage over 58 2/3 innings. New York briefly called him to the majors last fall but cut him loose at season’s end.

Bowman opened the 2024 season in Triple-A after signing a minor league deal with Minnesota. He threw six scoreless frames with seven strikeouts to earn his call-up. He’ll head back to that level as he tries to secure a spot in the Seattle relief corps.

The M’s don’t have a ton of bullpen flexibility. Five of their relievers are out of options. Andrés Muñoz certainly isn’t going anywhere. Tayler Saucedo is the team’s top left-hander while Gabe Speier is on the shelf. That essentially leaves just one spot (currently held by Collin Snider) for the Mariners to rotate relief arms without exposing anyone to waivers. Bowman himself is out of options, so the Mariners couldn’t freely send him back down if they call him up at any point.

Astros Acquire Nick Hernandez From Padres

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The Astros announced they’ve acquired minor league reliever Nick Hernandez from the Padres (link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). San Diego receives cash considerations in return. Hernandez was not on the Padres’ 40-man roster and will not immediately occupy a roster spot in Houston.

It’s a homecoming for the 29-year-old Hernandez in a few respects. He’s a Houston-area native who attended the University of Houston. Hernandez also began his career with the Astros, who selected him in the eighth round of the 2016 draft. The 6’1″ righty played in the organization until 2022, topping out at Triple-A Sugar Land. He qualified for minor league free agency after the ’22 season and signed with San Diego.

Hernandez got to the majors with the Padres last fall. He appeared in two games, allowing four runs in three innings. The Friars outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the start of the winter but circled back on a new minor league contract in January. He has been pitching at Triple-A El Paso, where he’s turned in excellent results.

He owns a 1.90 ERA across 23 2/3 innings despite the difficult pitching environment in the Pacific Coast League. Hernandez has punched out 34% of batters faced and has a near-31% strikeout percentage over parts of four Triple-A campaigns. He has typically issued a few too many free passes, but this season’s 9% walk rate isn’t far from league average. Hernandez has a full slate of options remaining, so the Astros would be able to move him between Houston and Sugar Land if they add him to the 40-man roster.

Royals Exploring Bullpen Market

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The Royals have been perhaps the most surprising contender of 2024. Kansas City’s 36-26 record is fourth-best in the American League. They’re five games behind the Guardians in a suddenly competitive AL Central and occupy the second Wild Card spot.

One year removed from a 106-loss season, K.C. should find themselves in position to add MLB help at the deadline. ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this morning that the Royals are already exploring the trade market for potential bullpen upgrades. General manager J.J. Picollo suggested similarly in an appearance on the New York Post’s The Show podcast with Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman. The second-year baseball operations leader indicated that adding swing-and-miss to the late innings would be ideal.

“In the back end of our bullpen, we’re not striking a lot of guys out, so that’s an area that we have to look at for sure,” Picollo said. The GM also pointed to the outfield as “an area we (may) have to address” if they don’t get improved production in the coming weeks.

Relief pitching and the outfield have been Kansas City’s biggest weaknesses. While the Royals’ rotation has arguably been among the three best in MLB, the bullpen entered play tonight ranked 25th with a 4.44 ERA. As Picollo observed, they’ve been particularly lacking in terms of strikeout stuff. Kansas City relievers are last in both strikeout rate (17.4%) and swinging strike percentage (8.5%). The only Royal reliever who has thrown at least five innings with an above-average strikeout rate, Tyler Duffey, was outrighted off the 40-man roster last week.

Kansas City made some modest upgrades to the bullpen over the winter. They inked Chris Stratton and Will Smith to lower-cost free agent deals and acquired John Schreiber and Nick Anderson in trade. Schreiber is the only member of that group who has pitched well thus far. He owns a 2.88 ERA while keeping half his batted balls on the ground over 25 innings. Stratton, Smith and Anderson have all allowed more than five earned runs per nine.

A’s star closer Mason Miller would be the prize of the reliever market, but the asking price will be astronomical. Marlins left-hander Tanner Scott, an impending free agent with a power arm and closing experience, is almost certain to be dealt. The White Sox are likely to trade former starter Michael Kopech, who is missing bats but showing worrisome control in relief. Oakland could dangle journeyman setup man Austin Adams for a much lesser return than they’d demand for Miller. The Mets will probably shop Adam Ottavino, former Royal Jake Diekman, and potentially waiver claim turned temporary closer Reed Garrett. Washington could move Hunter Harvey.

Those are just a handful of the many names who could be available. Virtually every playoff hopeful will at least poke around the relief market at the deadline, but the Royals seem to have a more acute need for bullpen help than most.

The outfield, meanwhile, carried a collective .204/.271/.324 batting line into tonight’s game. They’re last in average and on-base percentage and above only the White Sox in slugging output. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored in a post for Front Office subscribers last month, the Royals have had a staggeringly poor outfield since the departures of Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon. It has been more of the same this season, with none of Hunter Renfroe, MJ Melendez, Kyle Isbel nor designated hitter/outfielder Nelson Velázquez hitting well.

Picollo expressed some confidence in the in-house outfielders to turn things around, noting that they’ve had a few players “clearly underperforming” based on their previous track records. Neither Melendez nor Isbel have ever hit much at the major league level, though. Renfroe has been a productive player in the past, but he’s following up a mediocre .233/.297/.416 season with a career-worst .179/.256/.327 line over his first 51 games.

There’s probably the most optimism with regards to Velázquez, who drilled 14 homers in 40 games after being acquired from the Cubs at the 2023 deadline. Yet the Royals have used him more often at DH than in the outfield, and his subpar strikeout and walk profile was a cause for concern even amidst last year’s home run barrage.

Even with some clear areas of need, it’s an encouraging time for the Royals and their fanbase. Kansas City has a realistic path to their first postseason berth since their 2015 championship. While they’ll need to continue playing well over the next six-to-eight weeks, Picollo told Heyman and Sherman the front office is prepared to “be aggressive” if they remain in contention as the deadline gets nearer.

Tim Dierkes’ MLB Mailbag: Boras Four, Cubs, Blue Jays, Gambling

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I'm back for this week's mailbag!  We've got questions on the Boras Four, the Cubs' plan at catcher, available righty relievers, Juan Soto's defense, the Blue Jays' offense, the recent gambling suspensions, my one-third award picks, and much more.

Doug asks:

Do you think that front offices will feel even more compelled to depress free agent salaries after all of the prolonged drama about "The Boras Four" and none of those players panning out to be very good? Will any of Chapman, Bellinger, Snell, or Montgomery opt out of their contract?

Owners and players will be diametrically opposed on player salaries until the end of time, or at least until the end of Major League Baseball.  But to your point, it stands to reason that if the early performance of the late-signing Boras pitchers holds up, more front offices will be wary of giving big AAVs to hurlers signing well into spring training, even on short-term deals.

Blake Snell has been terrible, and since debuting April 8th has separate IL stints for adductor and groin strains.  Snell recently told reporters, "The one thing I would say is that big-league spring training, you need it. You have to go to spring training. I hope teams see that. I don’t know what [Jordan] Montgomery is doing, but I bet it’s tough for him."

Montgomery, who expressed a similar sentiment, sits at a 5.48 ERA after eight starts, with the worst strikeout rate of his career.

Some pitchers have succeeded after signing late, notably Ervin Santana signing on 3-12-14 and putting up a 3.2 WAR season for the Braves.  But both Snell and Montgomery signed later than Santana did, and most examples show pitchers struggling without a normal spring training.

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Mariners’ Owner: Front Office Will Have Resources To Pursue Deadline Upgrades

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The Mariners’ lack of offseason spending drew the ire of the fanbase, as Seattle’s offseason dealings appeared to be as much about managing payroll as they were reshaping the team. Seattle traded away Eugenio Suarez, used Jarred Kelenic to dump the contracts of Evan White and Marco Gonzales on the Braves, made financially motivated swaps involving Robbie Ray and Mitch Haniger, and only signed three free agents to major league contracts (Mitch Garver, Ryne Stanek and Austin Voth). The series of fiscally influenced moves came amid uncertainty surrounding the future of their television contract with ROOT Sports, and while the M’s certainly weren’t alone in their hand-wringing over their broadcast rights, they were arguably impacted as heavily or more heavily than many clubs around the game.

While those uncertainties still exist, Mariners managing partner John Stanton made clear in an interview with Adam Jude and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times that he’ll provide president of baseball operation Jerry Dipoto, general manager Justin Hollander and the rest of the front office with some financial latitude as the current AL West division leaders look to bolster their club.

“[W]e will look at the [July 30] deadline,” Stanton said. “I’ll spend time with Jerry and Justin as we approach the deadline, and we’ll talk about where we are. Jerry and Justin are 10 times smarter about what it takes to have a successful baseball team. My job is to make sure they have the resources available to get there.”

MLBTR readers are encouraged to read the interview in full, which is rife with quotes from Stanton about the Mariners’ offseason, the future of the television contract and his hope to eventually sign other young players to extensions as the club did with Julio Rodriguez. Broadly speaking, Stanton touted “substantial” financial losses amid the television situation, suggested that ROOT Sports will continue to operate independently through the 2025 season, and claimed that loss of television revenue “isn’t the reason we’ve made any decisions over the past couple years.”

Such comments will undoubtedly raise some skepticism among the fanbase, but the forward-looking takeaway is that Dipoto, Hollander & Co. will be afforded some flexibility to build upon this year’s roughly $140MM payroll. Presumably, augmenting the lineup will be the front office’s prime focus. The Seattle pitching staff is sixth in the majors in ERA and FIP. They’re fourth in SIERA. Only three teams have a better collective strikeout rate than the Mariners 23.8%, and they’re tied with the Twins for MLB’s best walk rate at 6.6%. The starting rotation appears largely set with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo — health permitting, of course. Any contending club can always deepen its bullpen, but that’s likelier to be a secondary objective.

For as excellent as Seattle’s pitching staff is, the offense has been another story entirely. The Mariners’ 230 runs scored are the fourth-fewest in baseball. That comes despite sitting ninth in the majors with 66 home runs — a testament to the general lack of baserunners their lineup has produced. The M’s rank 29th in baseball with a .222 average, 27th with a .298 OBP and 25th with a .365 slugging percentage. Seattle’s .252/.329/.401 slash with men in scoring position is actually ninth-best in baseball by measure of their 113 wRC+ … but the Mariners’ 504 plate appearances with runners in scoring position is the second-fewest in MLB, leading only the tanking White Sox (476 plate appearances with RISP).

The majority of the regulars in Seattle’s lineup have underwhelmed this season. Rodriguez, Ty France, Luke Raley and Dylan Moore have all been productive over the past month, following poor starts to the season, but that’s only boosted Rodriguez to slightly below-average production overall. France has been a bit better than average but nowhere near the offensive force he was from 2020-22. Catcher Cal Raleigh has popped a team-leading 11 homers but is hitting just .209 with a .278 on-base percentage.

What’s particularly problematic for the Mariners is that several of the weakest spots in the lineup are the ones they sought to address in the offseason. Switch-hitting second baseman Jorge Polanco was one of the American League’s steadiest hitters from 2018-23 in Minnesota, batting a combined .270/.338/.455 in nearly 2700 plate appearances. He’s hitting .195/.293/.302 for the Mariners. Haniger got out to a blistering .300/.382/.500 start through his first 68 plate appearances but has faceplanted with a .185/.234/.281 line over his past 145 trips to the plate. Garver hit .250/.346/.508 in his final 1242 plate appearances before signing a two-year deal in Seattle. He’s hitting .170/.276/.309 as the team’s primary DH.

Between Rodriguez, France, Raleigh, Polanco, Garver, Haniger, injured shortstop J.P. Crawford and others, the Mariners have the makings of a productive lineup. Almost the entire unit has underwhelmed, however, leading to far more one- and two-run victories than the club would prefer. Those offensive weaknesses could be particularly exposed in a short postseason series, when teams can more aggressively lean on their top few pitchers to cover the bulk of their innings.

An upgrade in the outfield corners, in particular, seems like a worthwhile pursuit for the Mariners — and some help at the hot corner or second base could prove sensible as well, depending on whether Polanco can turn things around. (Adding at third base could allow hot-hitting Josh Rojas to slide over to second more regularly.) But while ownership can pledge to provide sufficient resources to the baseball operations staff, at least some of the improvement is going to need to come internally.

The Mariners have too many underperforming veterans with strong track records to upgrade over on the fly this summer — many of whom (e.g. Garver, Polanco, Haniger, France) are commanding salaries of note and are signed/controlled beyond the current season. That collection of veterans has exactly eight weeks until July 30 to get back on track. It’s unlikely they all manage to do so, but the front office’s strategy will come into focus as those who are able to bounce back begin to show signs of life.

Keynan Middleton To Undergo Season-Ending Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Cardinals right-hander Keynan Middleton will undergo surgery to repair his flexor tendon and will miss the entire 2024 season. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch was among those to relay the news on X.

Middleton, 30, signed with the Cardinals this offseason on a one-year deal with a $6MM guarantee. He’s making a $5MM salary this year and there’s a $1MM buyout on a $6MM club option for 2025.

The Cards were hoping to install Middleton as a key piece of their relief unit after his strong 2023 season. Between the White Sox and Yankees, Middleton tossed 50 2/3 innings last year with a 3.38 earned run average. His 10.8% walk rate was a bit on the high side but he also struck out 30.2% of batters faced and got grounders on 56.6% of balls in play.

Middleton was undoubtedly hoping to build on that campaign and put another strong year together, but it will instead be a lost year for him. He was shut down in the middle of March due to a forearm strain and began the season on the injured list. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection while trying to recover and progressed far enough that he began a rehab assignment. But he then experienced renewed discomfort and was shut down. Now that it has been determined surgery is necessary, he’ll be sidelined for the remainder of the year.

Injuries have been an unfortunately common occurrence for Middleton in his career. He underwent Tommy John surgery back in May of 2018, wiping out the remainder of that season and much of the subsequent campaign as well. In later years, he made trips to the injured list due to a right biceps strain, right elbow inflammation, a right ankle strain and a sprained left great toe. Even last year, when he was healthy enough to make 51 appearances, he missed a couple of weeks due to right shoulder inflammation.

He’s already on the 15-day IL and will be transferred to the 60-day version whenever the Cards need his roster spot for some other transaction. He’ll spend the rest of the year rehabbing and the Cards will then have to decide whether or not they want to bring him back for 2025, a net $5MM decision. Flexor tendon surgery generally has a lesser recovery timetable than other major elbow surgeries and it’s possible Middleton will be healthy by next spring, but the Cards might just take the buyout and keep the $5MM available for other moves, as they could always circle back to Middleton later in the offseason if he’s recovering well.

The Cards have Ryan Helsley as their closer and will give setup work to guys like JoJo Romero and Andrew Kittredge for now. If the club stays in the playoff race for the next few weeks, they will likely pursue some bullpen help prior to the deadline.

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