AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Blue Jays
Through the Joe Maddon era, the Rays were known for employing different lineups and looks every day. Expect more stability in the day-to-day lineup under new manager Kevin Cash, writes Mark Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Maddon averaged 137 lineups per season over his five year tenure. Cash hopes to set a couple basic lineups based on opposing pitcher handedness. His key players should have an idea of where they’ll hit, which Cash believes is better for the players. Here’s more from the AL East.
- The Orioles have 11 players who could be eligible for free agency next fall, reports Rich Dubroff of CSN Baltimore. Dubroff examines the likelihood of each player returning beyond 2015. Steve Pearce may be the best fit on a short-term extension. Others like Matt Wieters, Wei-Yin Chen, Bud Norris, and Chris Davis may play their way out of town. In the case of Davis, another rough season could open a buy low opportunity. He’s set to earn $12MM next season.
- The Blue Jays upgraded the roster without addressing their deficiencies, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith for USA Today. Despite notable additions of Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin, the bullpen, second base, and center field remain as potential problems. The outfield is probably the best off, with prospect Dalton Pompey expected to fill the void. The bullpen could be addressed internally, but there are also several decent relievers on the free agent market. Second base looks dicey. Devon Travis may eventually fit, but Maicer Izturis and Ryan Goins will have to hold the fort in the meantime.
Central Notes: Royals, Frazier, Chapman, Reds, Indians
The Royals should employ “selective memory” regarding their successful 2014 playoff run, writes Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star. During the Wild Card game, the Royals were just a few outs from elimination against the Athletics. A series of improbable events led to a remarkable comeback victory. Without that first win, Ned Yost would be a punching bag in the media due to questionable decisions, Mike Moustakas would have entered the offseason with another disappointing season on his resume, and Lorenzo Cain would have failed to gain national acclaim. The postseason success also allowed the Royals to bolster their payroll, which should help in 2015.
- The Reds have two more arbitration players – Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The club continues to talk to agents of both players in an effort to find a middle ground. Per GM Walt Jocketty, “we’re going to keep working on it this weekend and see if we can make some progress.” Both players have fairly substantial differences in their submitted figures. Frazier asked for $5.7MM compared to the club’s offer of $3.9MM in his first season of eligibility. Chapman’s camp submitted for $8.7MM while the Reds countered at $6.65MM. MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projected a $4.6MM payday for Frazier and $8.3MM for Chapman.
- The Reds are “pretty much done” with free agent signings, reports Sheldon. Cincinnati inked reliever Burke Badenhop earlier today and signed former closer Kevin Gregg to a minor league deal. Jocketty left the door open, saying he’ll see if “something pops up,” but it’s unlikely.
- Patience allowed the Indians to acquire and develop three of their semi-homegrown stars, writes the Plain Dealer’s Terry Pluto. Michael Brantley was a player to be named later in the 2008 CC Sabathia trade. It took him six seasons to breakout at the major league level. In 2010, Corey Kluber was acquired in a three team trade. As we know, he also took awhile to reach his ceiling. Catcher Yan Gomes is another important trade acquisition for the club. Cleveland sent pitcher Esmil Rogers to Toronto in exchange for Gomes and Mike Aviles. All three players never ranked among the top 100 prospects in the game, and they’re all under club control through at least 2017.
Upside Hunting: Joba Chamberlain
With Burke Badenhop off the market on a one-year deal with the Reds, few arms on the free agent market figure to land big league deals. Many of the remaining names are coming off poor seasons or injuries and will therefore end up signing minor league deals. While Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano will garner much of the attention and the chatter, in my eyes, Joba Chamberlain could be the best remaining option on the open market.
Entering just his age-29 season, Chamberlain was one of the youngest free agents available even at the beginning of the offseason, and he’s the youngest notable name on the relief market as a whole at this point. Not only that, but Chamberlain is coming off a quietly strong season in his lone year with the Tigers.
In 63 innings, Chamberlain posted a 3.57 ERA with 8.4 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 53.2 percent ground-ball rate. He wilted down the stretch, yielding a 4.97 ERA following the All-Star break, but much of that is attributable to a nearly seven percent dip in his strand rate. Chamberlain stranded runners at a 75.7 percent clip in the first half — which compares favorably to his career mark of 74.6 percent — but that number dropped to 69.1 percent. Should that mark trend back toward Chamberlain’s career level with all else remaining more or less equal, Chamberlain could turn in some excellent results in 2015.
Also worth considering is that the Tigers ranked 28th among 30 Major League teams in both Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, and they ranked 29th of 30 in in defensive efficiency. By virtually any defensive metric imaginable, Chamberlain was pitching with one of baseball’s least talented groups supporting him — a likely reason for the discrepancy between his 3.57 ERA and his stronger marks in FIP (3.16), xFIP (3.35) and SIERA (3.13).
Chamberlain did lose a bit of life on his fastball, dipping from an average of 94.7 mph to 93.5 mph, but that mark still rates as above average, and he offset the slight drop in velocity by throwing more curveballs — a pitch that graded out as his best, according to Fangraphs’ pitch values.
Some may point to his shaky 2013 season as a reason to shy away from the former top prospect, but it should be remembered that Chamberlain battled an oblique strain that year as he attempted to complete his first full season following Tommy John surgery. Control was his main problem in 2013 (5.6 BB/9), but he’s never battled that issue much in any other season spent pitching in relief.
Last offseason, Chamberlain signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Tigers in mid-December. He’s undoubtedly coming off a better season this time around, but Chamberlain has reportedly been selective about his destination, rejecting offers from a few teams for which he did not want to play, leaving him afloat on the open market as one of the last remaining candidates for a big league deal. If another one-year deal is in the offing, or even a two-year pact at a reasonable price, Chamberlain could be a significant boost to a contender’s bullpen at a cost that hardly seems prohibitive.
Minor Moves: Kevin Gregg, Duane Below
Earlier today, the Reds announced that they’ve signed Kevin Gregg to a minor league deal and invited him to Spring Training. Gregg, 36, allowed 10 earned runs in nine innings with the Marlins last season before undergoing season-ending surgery to remove bone chips from his throwing elbow. The former Cubs/Marlins/Blue Jays closer has a lifetime 4.15 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 709 2/3 innings. He has a $1.5MM base salary on his contract should he make the team, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link).
Here are the rest of the day’s minor moves from around the league…
- The Mets have signed left-hander Duane Below to a minor league contract, reports Adam Rubin of ESPN New York. Below, however, was not invited to big league camp. Instead, the former Tigers hurler will head to Triple-A and attempt to earn his way up to the big league roster with a strong performance in-season. Below, 29, has a 4.27 ERA in 78 big league innings, having averaged 5.2 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9. Though he shows much better control versus lefties, he’s allowed nearly identical .716 and .715 OPS marks to right-handers and left-handers, respectively. He has a 3.60 career ERA in the minors with a 730-to-341 K/BB ratio in 883 innings. Below spent last season with Detroit’s Triple-A affiliate.
Pirates Win Arbitration Hearing Against Neil Walker
The Pirates have won an arbitration hearing against second baseman Neil Walker, reports MLB.com’s Tom Singer (on Twitter). Walker, who had filed at $9MM as opposed to the club’s $8MM figure (as shown in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker), will earn that $8MM sum in 2015. He’d been projected to earn $8.6MM in arbitration by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — a figure he may have approached had team and player been able to find a middle ground.
The 29-year-old Walker has now gone through the arbitration process three times, and the Super Two player will be eligible once more next winter before hitting free agency in the 2016-17 offseason. Walker had a breakout season in terms of power in 2014 but missed time due to both an appendectomy and lower back pain. He batted .271/.342/.467 with a career-high 23 homers, however, despite appearing in just 137 games.
Durability has long been an issue for the Excel Sports Management client, as Walker went through two turns on the 15-day DL in 2013 (though one was for a lacerated hand upon being spiked) and missed significant time in 2012 due to a herniated disc in his lower back. However, there’s been little question about his productivity when on the field; since establishing himself as Pittsburgh’s everyday second baseman in 2010, the hometown hero has batted .274/.341/.435, averaging 15 homers per season and an adjusted OPS of 116+ (indicating that he’s been 16 percent better than a league-average hitter when adjusting for league and park).
With Walker’s case out of the way, the Pirates have to remaining situations to settle, as both Pedro Alvarez and Vance Worley have unresolved cases.
Reds Sign Burke Badenhop, Designate Ismael Guillon
1:03pm: Badenhop will earn $50K for reaching 45 appearances, $100K for 50 appearances and another $100K for 55 appearances, reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. He’s made 63 or more appearances in each of the past three seasons, making those bonuses seem highly attainable.
12:02pm: MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon adds (via Twitter) that Badenhop can earn up to $250K via performance bonuses.
11:45pm: Grantland’s Jonah Keri reports that Badenhop is guaranteed $2.5MM, as he’ll earn $1MM in 2015 and has a $1.5MM buyout on a $4MM mutual option for the 2016 season (Twitter links).
11:33pm: The Reds announced today that they have signed right-hander Burke Badenhop to a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2016 season. Lefty Ismael Guillon has been designated for assignment to clear a spot on the 40-man roster.
The contract should serve as a fine birthday present for Badenhop, who turns 32 years old tomorrow. The ground-ball specialist has been quietly excellent over the past three seasons despite being traded twice in that time, posting a combined 2.90 ERA with 5.7 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a 55.3 percent ground-ball rate. Badenhop, a client of ACES, has totaled 195 1/3 innings over that three-year stretch, spending one season each with the Rays, Brewers and Red Sox.
Badenhop was one of the top remaining arms on a relief market that still features right-handers Francisco Rodriguez, Rafael Soriano and Joba Chamberlain. He’ll slot into a bullpen that features lights-out closer Aroldis Chapman, setup man Sam LeCure and lefties Sean Marshall and Manny Parra. Reds fans looking to get to know their newest reliever can check out the MLBTR Podcast from Oct. 30, in which Badenhop himself was a guest and chatted with host Jeff Todd. Badenhop was an excellent interview, sharing insightful answers about his strengths and weaknesses as well as his knowledge of advanced metrics and experiences from pitching in multiple roles out of the bullpen.
As for Guillon, the soon-to-be 23-year-old has struggled over the past two seasons at two Class-A levels, pitching to a combined 4.82 ERA with 248 strikeouts against 150 walks in 244 2/3 innings of work. He ranked among Baseball America’s Top 30 Reds prospects following the 2011, 2012 and 2013 seasons, topping out at No. 9. Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel recently pegged him 21st among Reds farmhands, noting that his changeup is a 60-65 on the 20-80 scale, but his curve is below average, and his upside comes with maddening inconsistency. One Reds source described Guillon as a “pull your hair out kind of guy” to McDaniel, who noted that Guillon would be an intriguing waiver pickup should Cincinnati part ways with him.
Dayan Viciedo Unlikely To Land With Reds
12:21pm: Jocketty downplayed the likelihood of Viciedo ending up in Cincinnati when asked by MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (Twitter link). While the GM again acknowledged that the Reds inquired on the slugger, he told Sheldon that Viciedo is looking for more playing time than the Reds can offer.
9:07am: The Reds have at least some interest in outfielder Dayan Viciedo, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. The White Sox requested release waivers on Viciedo earlier this week.
“We inquired about him,” says Reds GM Walt Jocketty. “I don’t know how far it will go. We’re looking at where we would play him.”
As Paul Swydan of Fangraphs noted yesterday, Viciedo would make some sense as a potential fit for the Reds, who lack bench players with offensive ability. Light-hitting utilityman Skip Schumaker currently projects as the Reds’ fourth outfielder. Although players like Kristopher Negron and Donald Lutz might be able to help somewhat in case of an injury to one of their starting outfielders, the Reds can clearly use a better, or at least an additional, contingency plan.
The 25-year-old Viciedo has significant flaws, of course. He hit just .231/.281/.405 in 2014, not a good showing given his poor defense. The righty does, however, have big-league power, with 21 homers last season, and he has youth on his side.
Athletics Win Arbitration Hearing Against Jarrod Parker
The Athletics have won an arbitration hearing against right-hander Jarrod Parker, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). The 26-year-old Parker, who missed all of the 2014 campaign after undergoing Tommy John surgery last spring, filed for a $1.7MM salary on the strength of his strong work from 2012-13, while the A’s countered at $850K (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). Parker will earn $850K this season, which is $50K short of his $900K projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.
Formerly the ninth overall pick in the draft, Parker was acquired alongside Ryan Cook and Collin Cowgill from the Diamondbacks prior to the 2012 season in a trade that sent Trevor Cahill and Craig Breslow to Arizona. Parker didn’t throw a pitch in 2014, but because a player’s first trip through arbitration is based on his career to date (unlike subsequent arb cases, which focus more on the platform season), he and his agents at Reynolds Sports Management still clearly felt they had a strong case. It’s easy to see why they felt as such, given Parker’s 25-16 record and 3.73 ERA in 378 1/3 innings of work from 2012-13. While wins and losses rightfully are becoming less common as a means of gauging a pitcher’s talent level, they still carry weight in arbitration. Parker has also averaged 6.5 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 42.5 percent ground-ball rate in his career thus far.
Though he’s unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, Parker should eventually move back into the Oakland rotation at some point this season. Both he and fellow Tommy John victim A.J. Griffin will give manager Bob Melvin options in what is already a deep staff of starting candidates. Budding ace Sonny Gray will lead the rotation along with revitalized veteran Scott Kazmir, and that duo will likely be joined by Jesse Chavez and Jesse Hahn. Candidates for the fifth slot include Drew Pomeranz, Chris Bassitt, Sean Nolin and Kendall Graveman, though Pomeranz would appear to have the inside track, as he is the most experienced of that bunch.
With Parker’s case resolved, Oakland has settled 11 of its 12 arbitration cases — a fairly staggering number — leaving only Tyler Clippard‘s situation unresolved.
East Notes: Jaso, Yankees, Flores
This year will mark the first Spring Training of John Jaso‘s career where he won’t be working out as a catcher, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “It’s definitely going to be different,” says Jaso. “I have no idea. The Big Papi program? I don’t know. … This will be kind of the first time for me.” Topkin notes that the Rays could use Jaso at catcher if there’s an emergency, but he’ll spend most of the season at DH after having concussion issues in each of the last two seasons. The Rays acquired Jaso and two prospects from the Athletics in the Ben Zobrist deal last month, and president of baseball operations Matt Silverman said at the time that he wanted to put Jaso “in the best position to succeed.” Potentially preventing injury by moving Jaso out from behind the plate would certainly help with that. The Rays could also use Jaso at first or in the outfield. Here’s more from the East divisions.
- GM Brian Cashman said on WFAN Friday that the Yankees had finished their “heavy lifting” this offseason, Brendan Kuty of NJ.com notes. Previous reporting had indicated that the Yankees might pursue in James Shields, but Cashman’s comments indicate that isn’t the case. As Kuty suggests, the idea that the Yankees won’t be a top bidder for Shields is consistent with their approach to the offseason so far — they re-signed Chase Headley and added Andrew Miller, but they’ve otherwise steered clear of top free agents after adding Jacoby Ellsbury, Masahiro Tanaka, Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran last offseason.
- Wilmer Flores isn’t listening to criticism about the Mets’ shortstop situation, Matt Ehalt of the Record writes. The Mets didn’t add a shortstop this winter and are heading into the spring with Flores as their likely starter, leading to plenty of second-guessing from commentators and fans. “People doubt a lot of people,” says Flores. “I’m not worried about that. I’m just going to go out and play.” Flores hit .251/.286/.378 last season, but he’s hit well in the high minors, and the Mets like his offensive potential. His defense remains open to question, although UZR has liked his glove work in small sample sizes in his first two partial seasons in the Majors. As Mike Petriello wrote for Fangraphs last month, concerns about the Mets’ shortstop situation might be somewhat misplaced. The position is weak throughout the Majors, and Steamer projects Flores will be the 19th most valuable shortstop by WAR in the big leagues in 2015, ahead of some of the top options available this offseason, like Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew.
Week In Review: 1/31/15 – 2/6/15
Here’s a look back at this week at MLBTR.
Key Move
- The Red Sox extended P Wade Miley for three years with a fourth-year club option.
Signed / Agreed To Terms
- Rockies – P Kyle Kendrick (one year)
- Nationals – P Casey Janssen (one year with mutual option)
Arbitration
- Players who avoided arbitration include the Mets‘ Lucas Duda (link); the Giants‘ Brandon Belt (link); the Angels‘ Garrett Richards (link); the Orioles‘ Zach Britton (link) and Miguel Gonzalez (link); the Royals‘ Danny Duffy (link), Lorenzo Cain and Mike Moustakas (link); and the Cubs‘ Pedro Strop (link).
- The Marlins won their arbitration hearing against P Mat Latos (link).
- IF Danny Valencia won his arbitration hearing against the Blue Jays (link).
Trades
- Pirates – acquired IF Edward Salcedo from Braves for P Bryton Trepagnier
- Pirates – acquired P Arquimedes Caminero from Marlins for cash
- Pirates – acquired UT Steve Lombardozzi from Orioles for cash
- Blue Jays – acquired P Jayson Aquino from Rockies for P Tyler Ibarra
- White Sox – acquired P Yency Almonte from Angels to complete the Gordon Beckham trade
- Cardinals – acquired C Michael Ohlman from Orioles for cash
Claimed
- Cubs – P Drake Britton (from Red Sox – link)
Designated For Assignment
- Blue Jays – IF/OF Chris Colabello (link)
- Cubs – P Gonzalez Germen (link)
- Rockies – P Yohan Flande (link)
- Nationals – P Eric Fornataro (link)
Outrighted
- Braves – OF Jose Constanza (link)
- Brewers – UT Elian Herrera (link)
- Pirates – IF Jake Elmore (elected free agency)
Released / Requested Release Waivers
- White Sox – OF Dayan Viciedo (link)
- Giants – UT Chris Dominguez (link)
Key Minor League Signings
- Brewers – RP Chris Perez (link)
- Rangers – OF Nate Schierholtz (link), OF Ryan Ludwick (link)
- Cubs – IF Jonathan Herrera (link)
- Cardinals – P Carlos Villanueva (link)
- Padres – C Wil Nieves (link)
- Rockies – P John Axford (link)
- Diamondbacks – C Gerald Laird (link)
- Rays – P Ronald Belisario (link)