Nelson Cruz Switches Agents
Nelson Cruz has switched agencies and is now represented by Diego Bentz of Relativity Sports, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (via Twitter). Cruz had previously been represented by WMG’s Adam Katz.
Though Cruz and the Orioles are on their way to the ALCS, the 34-year-old slugger is clearly preparing himself for free agency this winter. Cruz received only a one-year, $8MM deal from Baltimore on the open market last offseason as his value was depressed by a PED suspension, his age and the first-round draft pick compensation tied to him via the qualifying offer. After hitting 40 homers with a .859 OPS in 2014, however, Cruz looks in good shape to score a multiyear deal even though the O’s will surely tag him with the qualifying offer.
Relativity’s list of baseball clients includes such major names as David Ortiz, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Andrelton Simmons, Jordan Zimmermann, Julio Teheran, Paul Goldschmidt, Madison Bumgarner and Jhonny Peralta. As ESPN’s Enrique Rojas tweets (in Spanish), Peralta received a four-year, $53MM deal from the Cardinals last winter despite his own ties to the Biogenesis scandal, though Peralta didn’t have draft pick compensation hanging over him.
For more on who represents who around the baseball world, check out the MLBTR Agency Database.
Players Who Have Elected Minor League Free Agency
A total of 43 players have elected to become minor league free agents, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy in his latest round-up of minor league transactions. MLBTR has already reported on some of these moves over the last few days, and here is the rest of the list, with players grouped by their most recent team…
- Angels: RHP David Carpenter, RHP Dane De La Rosa, C John Hester
- Braves: RHP Pedro Beato
- Cubs: C Eli Whiteside
- Diamondbacks: 3B Andy Marte
- Giants: 2B Brandon Hicks
- Indians: MI Elliot Johnson
- Marlins: OF Brian Bogusevic
- Mets: LHP John Lannan, SS Omar Quintanilla, C Taylor Teagarden
- Orioles: RHP Josh Stinson
- Padres: OF Jeff Francoeur, 3B Chris Nelson
- Phillies: SS Reid Brignac, LHP Jeremy Horst, RHP Jeff Manship
- Pirates: SS Michael Martinez, RHP Vin Mazzaro, 1B Chris McGuiness
- Rangers: 1B/OF Mike Carp, LHP Ryan Feierabend, 2B Josh Wilson
- Red Sox: OF Corey Brown, 2B Ryan Roberts
- Royals: INF Pedro Ciriaco, RHP Blake Wood
- Tigers: RHP Kevin Whelan
- Yankees: LHP Josh Outman
Tigers Notes: Price, Miller, V-Mart, Martin
In the wake of another postseason disappointment for the Tigers, “there’s the underlying question whether this could be the end of an era,” MLB.com’s Jason Beck writes. Several key members of the roster will hit free agency, including Max Scherzer, though the 2013 Cy Young Award winner said “I do hope I’m back. I love this clubhouse, love everybody in here, been to battle with these guys for five years. It would mean a lot to me.”
Here’s the latest from the Motor City…
- If Scherzer doesn’t return, the natural next step for the Tigers would be to pursue an extension with David Price, though the southpaw naturally wasn’t concerned with his contract in the wake of the painful ALDS sweep. “That’s out of my control. That’s the last thing that’s on my mind right now. I’m not worried about that,” Price told reporters, including Mlive.com’s Chris Iott. Price has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining before hitting the free agent market after the 2015 season.
- The Tigers’ failure to acquire Andrew Miller at the trade deadline may have been the turning point of their season, John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes. Miller could’ve been prevented the bullpen meltdowns that plagued the Tigers in the ALDS, but instead, he ended up stifling Detroit in two late-game appearances for the Orioles. The Tigers came very close to closing a deal Miller at the deadline but the Red Sox instead sent the lefty to Baltimore in exchange for top pitching prospect Eduardo Rodriguez.
- A rival official recently told ESPN’s Buster Olney (Insider subscription required) that he thinks the Tigers will do whatever it takes to re-sign Victor Martinez, as “considering the Tigers’ win-at-all-costs approach and Martinez’s importance in the Detroit lineup, he cannot see them being outbid.” Olney lists five other teams as possible fits for Martinez in free agency, and three are from the AL Central.
- Also from Olney’s piece, he lists the Tigers as a potential suitor for Russell Martin. The free agent catcher could be “a plan B” if the Tigers are concerned about Alex Avila‘s concussion history and want a change behind the plate.
Free Agent Profile: Francisco Rodriguez
Francisco Rodriguez is a late-inning fixture, having recorded at least two and as many as 62 saves every season since 2003, though he has had a somewhat odd run of late on the transactional side.
After earning big arbitration and free agent dollars, the star closer made the somewhat surprising decision to accept arbitration from the Brewers after the 2011 season rather than taking free agency (under the old Type A/Type B system). But an off 2012 season — 72 innings of 4.38 ERA ball, with 9.0 K/9 vs. 3.9 BB/9 — forced Rodriguez into a minor league deal. He responded with a bounceback campaign in 2013, throwing 46 2/3 frames and compiling a 2.70 ERA with 10.4 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9. Nevertheless, perhaps hurt by the fact that he had less success down the stretch after being traded to the contending Orioles, Rodriguez again returned to Milwaukee on a make-good, one-year pact (this one promising him $3.25MM).
The market has seemingly gone from viewing Rodriguez as a premier reliever to treating him like a shell of his former self, an aging closer whose best days are long past. But that is not necessarily true, and K-Rod’s market may be due for some correction this time around.
Strengths/Pros
For one thing, Rodriguez is not nearly as old as his long MLB tenure might suggest. Entering his age-33 season in 2015, Rodriguez is more youthful than closers like Joe Nathan and Fernando Rodney, each of whom landed substantial two-year deals last offseason. And he is younger than some competitors on this year’s market, including Rafael Soriano, Casey Janssen, Jason Grilli, and Koji Uehara.
While Rodriguez may not be “old” by the closer market’s standards, he still has a lot of mileage on his arm. On the other hand, much of the reason for that is his remarkable durability: he has averaged 69 innings pitched per season dating back to 2003. Aside from an infamous off-field injury back in 2010 (and a more comical cactus maiming this spring), Rodriguez has a lengthy track record of health.
One could point to the fact that Rodriguez no longer strikes out batters at an elite clip, and that is no doubt true. But while his strikeout rate is down from his glory days (in particular, against league average), K-Rod has continued to earn his moniker by averaging an even 10.0 K/9 over the last two years. Even better, he has married that with excellent control, answering the primary critique of his earlier-career quality as a pitcher. Put it all together, and Rodriguez has set a personal record for full-season K/BB ratio successively in each of the last two years. (If you prefer K%-BB%, Rodriguez landed at 20.5%, solidly above average and 32nd among all qualified relievers.) A friendly BABIP even enabled him to post a career-low WHIP (.985) this past season.
For what it’s worth, Rodriguez also proved that he can still handle the ninth inning. After jumping unexpectedly into the closer’s role early this year, he logged 44 saves — his largest tally since that 62-save campaign in 2008 — while blowing only five.
Weaknesses/Cons
Rodriguez, unsurprisingly, no longer brings his fastball quite like he did in his youth, and his average velocity now sits at around 91. But he has never averaged above 93 in a full season, and never relied on the kind of pure speed that makes this a major concern. Rodriguez still registers excellent pitch values for his change-up, which, as Nick Ashbourne of Beyond the Box Score noted earlier this year, he has increasingly relied upon in lieu of his curve.
Rodriguez was victimized by the long ball this year, surrendering a career-worst 1.85 HR/9 and rather unsightly 23.3% HR/FB. He also benefited from a high strand-rate (93%) and low BABIP (.216). To some extent those statistics balance out when viewed together, as regression in both directions could be expected.
Personal
A native of Venezuela, Rodriguez first signed with the Angels back in 1998. He was playing in the states by the time he was 17, and reached the big leagues at age 20. Since then, Rodriguez has earned a somewhat fiery reputation, perhaps befitting his late-inning role. But on occasion, his anger has seemingly gotten the better of him. Rodriguez has had a few on-the-field spats that generated headlines. And more worryingly, he has twice been charged for his role in domestic physical altercations. (He pled guilty in the first case, while charges were dropped in the latter.)
Market
Rodriguez faces a lot of competition from veteran, late-inning relievers. As I recently explored, however, he is perhaps the only one who is truly on the upswing as he enters the free agent market. That does not mean that Rodriguez is the cream of the crop, of course – if nothing else, David Robertson and Andrew Miller are much younger and have more dominant recent track records – but it is something of a feather in his cap against most of the rest of the market.
As things have shaken out, he looks to be roughly on the same tier as Uehara, Soriano, and Sergio Romo amongst the next group of arms. (Names like Janssen, Pat Neshek, and Luke Gregerson are, perhaps, one tier behind.) It is possible to craft arguments preferring one of those to the other, and teams and personal circumstances will surely dictate the results, but Rodriguez surely rates much higher than might have been expected at the outset of the season.
The closer market as a whole seems to be somewhat wanting on the demand side: few big-budget contenders are in need of a new ninth-inning man. And on the whole, the rise of young flamethrowers could make teams somewhat hesitant to commit big dollars to relievers. On the other hand, Rodriguez has previously been willing to work in a set-up role. And proven success and durability still carries plenty of currency; he has been a relative rock in both respects.
Though it would be foolhardy to handicap possible landing spots for a sub-elite reliever, suffice to say that plenty of clubs could use an arm like his – though Rodriguez’s combative reputation may lead some decision-makers to take a pass. It is worth noting, too, that Rodriguez’s personal affinity to Milwaukee is strong and well-documented. He turned down MLB offers to take a minor league deal with the team in 2012, waited for and then jumped on the Brewers’ offer last year, and now says that he hopes to return. Of course, whether Milwaukee will pursue him with any vigor — after adding Jonathan Broxton and his hefty salary at the trade deadline — remains to be seen. But if the bidding is close, it seems plausible that K-Rod could take a discount to stay with the Brewers.
Expected Contract
Achieving multiple years has not been a problem for relievers much older than Rodriguez. The overall trajectory of his play and, particularly, his excellent durability make Rodriguez a strong bet to land a two-year deal. A discount (in terms of years or dollars) to stay in Milwaukee remains a plausible outcome, but if he seeks a full market payday, I expect the Scott Boras client to match Rodney’s contract last year and land a two-year, $14MM deal.
California Notes: Dipoto, Angels, Lowrie, Giants
Four of California’s five teams reached the postseason and two are still alive, as the Dodgers and Giants both play Game 3 of their respective NLDS series tonight. The Dodgers will send Hyun-jin Ryu to the mound to try and take a 2-1 lead over the Cardinals, while Madison Bumgarner and the Giants can sweep away the Nationals with a victory.
Here’s some news from around the Golden State…
- Angels GM Jerry Dipoto told reporters (including MLB.com’s Alden Gonzalez) that his team will focus on adding bench and pitching depth this offseason. Dipoto doesn’t forsee any big moves since he’s pleased with the team’s core players, saying “We feel we’re tweaks and turns from being a very good team again.”
- As several members of the Angels‘ core get deeper into their 30’s, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times wonders if the team’s window of contention might only last for another season or two.
- The Angels will likely address their depth by being active on the minor league free agent market, CBS Sports’ Mike Axisa writes in a recap of the Halos’ 2014 season and a look ahead to their winter. Axisa suggests the team could sign a mid-tier free agent starter like Brandon McCarthy and/or Francisco Liriano, and then trade C.J. Wilson to free up some payroll space (while eating maybe half the $38MM still owed on Wilson’s contract). Dealing Wilson could be easier said than done given his partial no-trade clause (covering eight teams) and since Wilson is coming off a tough season.
- The Athletics will “be stuck on this treadmill” of early postseason exits “until the team is sold” due to a lack of payroll support from ownership, Bruce Jenkins of the San Francisco Chronicle opines. Jenkins also criticized Billy Beane’s recent defense of the Jon Lester trade, as Jenkins felt it didn’t show much faith in the rest of the A’s roster.
- Jed Lowrie is open to playing second base rather than shortstop, just as long as he has a stable everyday spot and not switching between the two middle infield positions, he tells MLB.com’s Jane Lee. Lowrie will be a free agent this offseason and is “certainly open to hearing what the A’s have to say” about re-signing him, as he enjoys playing with his teammates and for Bob Melvin.
- The Giants aren’t usually mentioned in discussions of baseball’s best farm systems, yet homegrown players are the backbone of both this year’s roster and the club’s recent World Series winners, Alex Pavlovic of the San Jose Mercury News writes. Fourteen of the players on the Giants’ roster were drafted or signed by the team, the second-most homegrown products of any of the eight Division Series clubs.
Quick Hits: Reds, Martinez, Street, Blue Jays
The Tigers and Athletics made noise at the trade deadline when they acquired David Price and Jon Lester, respectively, but now they have little to show for it, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes. Instead, some of the most effective moves have been the quieter ones, like the Orioles acquiring dominant lefty reliever Andrew Miller or the Giants dealing for Jake Peavy. Nightengale also notes that the Dodgers made the best move of the trading season by not dealing Matt Kemp, who hit like crazy down the stretch and so far in the postseason. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon can all become free agents after the 2015 season, putting the Reds in a tough spot, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. “As much as I think we’d like to be able to keep every single guy and pay them what they deserve, it’s impossible to do it here,” says manager Bryan Price. Rosecrans quotes Cueto, Latos and Leake all saying they would be happy staying in Cincinnati, but the Reds will have a tight budget, with plenty of money already committed to Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey.
- Victor Martinez doesn’t have a monetary goal in mind when it comes to the contract he’ll sign as a free agent this offseason, but he does know how many years he’d like to receive, writes Anthony Castrovince of Sports On Earth. Martinez won’t say how many years that is, but he does say he doesn’t want to still be playing at 40. He’ll open next season at 36, which might indicate he’s looking for a four-year deal. Martinez is poised to cash in after an outstanding .335/.409/.565 season in Detroit, although Castrovince notes that Martinez’s market will be constrained somewhat because he’s a DH and because the Tigers will almost certainly extend him a qualifying offer.
- Now with the Angels (who were just eliminated from the postseason by the Royals), Huston Street fondly remembers his time as the Padres‘ closer, writes Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune. “When you leave someplace, you want to miss it as much as I miss San Diego,“ says Street. “Just because that means the time you spent there was meaningful. It was a time in my career that really set me on a very successful path.“
- Not retaining Casey Janssen will probably be the correct decision for the Blue Jays, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star writes. Teams frequently change closers, as a look at playoff teams’ rosters indicates — the only playoff closer who has been in that position with his team for three years is Kenley Jansen of the Dodgers. Instead of worrying about a closer, Griffin argues, the Jays should address second base and the outfield.
AL Notes: Twins, Red Sox, Tigers
Previous experience is no longer the most important criterion for teams deciding on new managers, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune writes. “There are managers who are in the postseason right now who didn’t have one game of experience as manager,” says Twins GM Terry Ryan. A number of recent hirees have had little or no previous managerial experience, including Mike Matheny of the Cardinals and Brad Ausmus of the Tigers. It sounds like the Twins might not prioritize experience in their search for a manager, either. The Twins have recently interviewed Paul Molitor and Doug Mientkiewicz, neither of whom have been big-league managers, although Mientkiewicz has managed in the minors. Here are more notes from the American League.
- The Red Sox might end up regretting trading John Lackey to the Cardinals, Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal writes. Lackey had an option for 2015 at the league minimum salary due to an elbow injury, and that made him very valuable. But Allen Craig and Joe Kelly, who the Red Sox received in return, have been disappointing, or at least questionable. Craig hit just .128/.234/.191 in 107 plate appearances in Boston. Kelly had a respectable 4.11 ERA in 61 1/3 innings, but with 6.0 K/9 and a very high 4.7 BB/9.
- The Tigers, who were eliminated from the playoffs on Sunday, are now “expensive, star-laden and old,” Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. The Tigers have gone to the playoffs the last four seasons, but they’ve fallen short of a World Series victory each time, and now they have Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera signed to long and potentially onerous contracts.
MLBTR Originals
A look back at the original reporting and analysis found on MLBTR the last seven days:
- There were two installments in MLBTR’s recurring series Free Agent Profile this week.
- Tim Dierkes predicts a two-year, $26MM deal for Aramis Ramirez whether he remains in Milwaukee or if he hits the open market and is tendered a qualifying offer. If Ramirez becomes a free agent without draft pick compensation, Tim envisions the 36-year-old third baseman snagging $30MM over two years.
- Zach Links expects right-hander Justin Masterson to settle for a pillow contract to rebuild his value after a down 2014 and $12MM for that one year could make sense.
- The offseason began this past week for 22 of the 30 MLB teams and so did an offseason staple on MLBTR: Offseason Outlook. Steve Adams kicked off the series with his outlook on the Twins. Tim provided his analysis of the White Sox while Jeff Todd examined the Rockies.
- Tim was the first to learn the Super Two cutoff could be two years and 133 days (2.133) of service time. Players who achieve Super Two status earn an extra year of salary arbitration.
- Jeff updated the status of the nine players taken in this year’s Rule 5 draft.
- Tim was the first to report Emilio Bonifacio switched agents leaving Paul Kinzer for Gene Mato.
- Steve hosted the weekly live chat.
- Zach gathered the best the baseball corner of the web had to offer in Baseball Blogs Weigh In.
Torii Hunter Possibly Considering Retiring
8:45pm: Hunter says he plans to keep playing and would like to return to the Tigers, tweets MLive.com’s James Schmehl.
7:59pm: In the aftermath of the Tigers’ ouster from the playoffs at the hands of the Orioles Sunday, veteran outfielder Torii Hunter said he was strongly considering retiring, according to MLive.com’s Chris Iott (via Twitter). “It’s 100 percent serious, bro. I have been thinking about it a long time,” Hunter said, via a tweet from the New York Post’s Joel Sherman.
The 39-year-old Hunter is at the end of his two-year, $26MM deal, so he’ll be a free agent after the season. He said in April that he we would be physically able to play for two or three more seasons. “I’m a man. A man is supposed to work. This is the only thing I know, the only thing I’m supposed to do,” he said at the time.
The longtime Twins and Angels outfielder had a strong season in 2012, batting .313/.365/.451 in his last season in Anaheim, but he’s faded a bit since then. He’s still a well above average hitter, with a line of .286/.319/.446 this season, but his once-brilliant defense has faded to the point that he’s now marginal even in right field.
Hunter won nine straight Gold Gloves between 2001 and 2009. He’s also made five All-Star appearances and has two Silver Slugger awards. He has a career line of .279/.334/.465 with 331 home runs in 18 big-league seasons.
Fernando Tatis Retires
Fernando Tatis has announced his retirement from baseball, El Deportista reports (link in Spanish). Tatis hadn’t played in the Majors since 2010, but he has played in his native Dominican Republic since then and played in Mexico this year. Tatis last turned up in these pages in early 2013, when he worked out for the Orioles (who ultimately did not sign him).
Tatis’ best season came in 1999, when he hit .298/.404/.553 while hitting 34 home runs (including two grand slams in one inning) as the Cardinals’ starting third baseman. He also played for the Rangers, Expos, Orioles and Mets in a career spanning parts of 11 seasons. He finishes his career with a line of .265/.344/.442 and with career earnings of over $17MM, according to Baseball-Reference.com.