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NPB’s Hanshin Tigers Post Koyo Aoyagi For MLB Clubs

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The Hanshin Tigers of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced last night that they’ve made right-hander Koyo Aoyagi available to major league teams via the posting system. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network tweets that MLB has approved the posting, which opens a 45-day window for the pitcher to sign with a big league team.

Aoyagi, who turns 31 next week, seems to project as a depth arm. While he has worked as a starting pitcher for the Tigers, Aoyagi throws from a sidearm slot that’s more commonly found in the bullpen. He’s coming off a pedestrian season which he split almost evenly between the Tigers and their minor league affiliate. Aoyagi made 12 starts at Japan’s top level and pitched 11 times in the minors.

During his work at the highest level, he turned in a 3.69 ERA across 61 innings. His 13% strikeout rate would be nearly 10 percentage points below the MLB average. He showed decent but not exceptional control, walking 7.8% of batters faced. His career track record is a bit more impressive. He owns a 3.08 ERA with a 17.1% strikeout percentage across nine NPB campaigns. This was his second consecutive middling season, though. Aoyagi was tagged for a 4.57 ERA across 100 1/3 innings for the Tigers in 2023.

The 5’11” hurler pitched for Japan at the 2020 Olympics (held in Tokyo a year late as a result of the pandemic). Japan went 5-0 and won the gold medal, though Aoyagi was tagged for five runs in 1 2/3 innings across two appearances. He did not make the nation’s World Baseball Classic roster two years later.

Assuming the posting window officially opened today, Aoyagi will have until January 17 to sign with an MLB team. If he doesn’t find an offer to his liking, he’d remain with the Tigers. Aoyagi’s numbers suggest he could be limited to a minor league deal. If he signs with an MLB team, that club would also owe a release fee to the Hanshin Tigers. The fee is proportional to the size of the contract. In the very likely event that he signs for $25MM or less, the posting fee would be 20% of the guarantee.

Mets Sign Frankie Montas

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The Mets announced they have signed right-hander Frankie Montas to a two-year deal that contains an opt-out clause for Montas following the 2025 season. The Boras Corporation client will reportedly earn $17MM in both the 2025 and 2026 seasons for a $34MM guarantee.

Montas returns to the Big Apple after an injury-plagued stint with the Yankees during the 2022-23 seasons.  The Yankees acquired Montas from the A’s at the 2022 trade deadline when Montas was still trying to work through some shoulder discomfort, and his ill-fated attempt to pitch through the pain led to a 6.35 ERA over 39 2/3 innings during the remainder of the 2022 campaign.  Montas then required labrum surgery the following February that cost him almost all of the 2023 season, as he returned to pitch 1 1/3 innings in one game at the very end of September.

The Reds bet that Montas would be able to bounce back when healthy, and last January signed the righty to a one-year deal that ended up being worth $16MM — $14MM in guaranteed salary, and then a $2MM buyout once Montas declined his end of a mutual option for the 2025 season.  Perhaps showing the after-effects of his long layoff, Montas had a 4.84 ERA over 150 2/3 combined innings with Cincinnati and Milwaukee last season, as the Reds sent Montas to the Brewers last July in another deadline trade.

Apart from a minimal 15-day IL stint due to a forearm contusion, Montas was pretty healthy in his comeback year, and the 150 2/3 innings represents the second-highest workload of his nine Major League seasons.  As the 4.84 ERA might imply, however, Montas (who turns 32 in March) ran into some struggles.  His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly below the league average, and he surrendered a lot of walks and a lot of hard contact.

Montas’ 14.8% home run rate was the highest of his career, and he actually allowed more homers after leaving the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark for the more neutral American Family Field.  His fastball velocity dropped from 96.1mph to 95.6mph, which isn’t bad for a pitcher returning from a yearlong absence, but the larger issue was Montas’ sinker was the only effective pitch in his arsenal.  It is worth noting that Montas’ velocity and strikeout rate did increase after the trade to the Brewers, so another change of scenery might now more fully get him back to his pre-surgery form.

MLBTR ranked Montas 27th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, and his $34MM guarantee significantly tops our prediction of a two-year, $22MM contract.  The higher price could reflect the ever-rising price of pitching, and the Mets and other teams might have put a greater premium on Montas’ ability to eat innings.

The Mets in particular had a glaring need for rotation help, as Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, and Jose Quintana are all free agents.  Montas now fills one of those holes in the pitching staff, and he’ll join Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, and (if healthy) Paul Blackburn as the current starting five, though more additions are surely still to come this winter.

Much of the buzz surrounding the Mets this offseason has naturally focused on their courtship of Juan Soto, but New York has also been linked to such pitchers as Roki Sasaki and trade candidate Garrett Crochet.  There has been speculation that the Amazins could also pursue some of the top names on the pitching market, though there hasn’t been any public news on that front to date.

It could be that the Mets are holding off on other big-ticket pursuits until Soto’s situation is resolved, and Montas’ contract represents a fairly less-expensive foray into the free agent market that helps address the club’s chief need for pitching.  For now, the Montas contract resembles the two-year, $28MM deal (also with an opt-out) that Manaea signed last winter, as president of baseball operations David Stearns has thus far stuck to his strategy of inking starters to shorter-term contracts.  Montas is surely hoping that he can follow Manaea’s path of delivering a stronger full season, and then returning to free agency next year to land a lengthier and pricier contract.

The $17MM average annual value of Montas’ contract still leaves New York with plenty of space before it hits the $241MM luxury tax threshold, as RosterResource projects the club’s tax number at roughly $189.7MM.  Obviously avoiding the tax hasn’t been a priority in the Steve Cohen era and signing Soto to a record contract would alone put the Mets at or near the threshold before any other moves are made.  Just in case Soto does sign elsewhere, however, a world exists where the Mets could be aggressive this winter and still reset their tax situation entirely, which would allow the Mets to enjoy more financial flexibility (and a smaller overall tax bill) going forward.

It is perhaps noteworthy that Boras represents both Soto and Montas, and it seems likely that Boras and Stearns have discussed several of the agent’s many clients during their conversations this offseason.  Montas is already the third Boras-represented pitcher to sign a new contract this winter, after Blake Snell’s five-year, $182MM deal with the Dodgers and Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63MM pact with the Angels.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link) was the first to report the signing and the contract terms.  Jon Heyman of the New York Post (via X) added the detail about the opt-out clause, and the specific breakdown of Montas’ salaries over the two seasons.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Tayron Guerrero Signs With NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines

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The Chiba Lotte Marines of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced that they have signed right-hander Tayron Guerrero. Per reporter Francys Romero (X link), Guerrero will make a salary of $600K next year.

It’s a bit of a homecoming for Guerrero, 34 in January, as he also pitched for the Marines in 2022. He was in affiliated ball for over a decade prior to that but was only able to throw 106 major league innings. Splitting time between the Padres and Marlins, he posted a 5.77 earned run average from 2016 to 2019.

He wasn’t able to crack the big leagues in 2020 or 2021 so he headed to Japan in 2022 and had a nice season with the Marines. He tossed 46 innings over 49 appearances with a 3.52 ERA, 32.5% strikeout rate and 10.3% walk rate.

He came back to North America after that showing, signing a minor league deal with the Reds going into 2023. He struggled badly for Triple-A Louisville, with an 11.51 ERA over his 20 appearances, walking more batters than he struck out. He was released in June and then signed with the Diablos Rojos of the Mexican League. A 1.17 ERA over his eight appearances there was apparently enough for him to get a minor league deal with the Angels for the 2024 season.

He made 30 appearances at Triple-A Reno this year, in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. His 5.73 ERA doesn’t look great but his 20.6% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate were all solid enough, leading to a 3.47 FIP.

If Guerrero stayed in North America, he surely would have been limited to minor league offers and would have had to fight his way to the big leagues. By returning to Japan, he has locked in a notable salary just a bit below next year’s MLB minimum, which will be $760K.

Blue Jays Interested In Re-Signing Jordan Romano

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A couple of weeks ago, the Blue Jays opted not to tender a contract to right-hander Jordan Romano, sending him to free agency instead of keeping him around for his final season of club control. But general manager Ross Atkins tells members of the media, including Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic, that the Jays are “interested in him and will be heavily pursuing his return, and hope that that’s a potential reality.”

Romano, 32 in April, had a strong three-year run as the closer in Toronto but is coming off a mostly lost season. From 2021 to 2023, Romano racked up 95 saves for the Jays, tossing 186 innings with a 2.37 earned run average. He had a 30.3% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 42.3% ground ball rate.

But in 2024, he was on and off the injured list due to inflammation in his right elbow. He only made 15 appearances on the year and had a bloated 6.59 ERA in that small sample, only striking out 21% of batters faced. He underwent arthroscopic surgery on that elbow in July and it was initially hoped that he could make a late-season return but that ultimately didn’t come to pass.

Romano made a salary of $7.75MM in 2024 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected him for the same figure in 2025, since salaries almost never go down in the arbitration system. After Romano’s rough 2024 campaign, the Jays didn’t think it was worth betting that much on a bounceback. Presumably, they also checked in with other clubs to assess trade interest but couldn’t find any willing to both have Romano around that price point and give up something notable in return.

His health is a bit of a question mark as he hasn’t pitched since May, but Atkins says he doesn’t have any concerns going into 2025. Assuming Romano is healthy, the Jays could certainly use him, as their bullpen was a big part of their struggles this year. Toronto relievers posted a collective 4.82 ERA in 2024, a mark that was better than just the Rockies. With the club looking to rebound in 2025, a stronger bullpen will be a necessary step.

Bringing Romano back could be a part of that, though it will naturally be at a lower salary than he made last year. Kirby Yates is another former closer who had some injury problems and he signed a $4.5MM deal with the Rangers last winter. It’s not a perfect comparison since Yates was going into his age-37 season, but he had at least finished the prior season healthy. After missing much of the 2020 through 2022 seasons due to injuries, he made 61 appearances in 2023 with a 3.28 ERA. Romano will be far younger than Yates but with more recent injury troubles. Yates also signed a $5.5MM deal with the Jays going into 2021, his age-34 season, after being hurt for much of 2020. But he ended up undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing that entire season. Greg Holland was one of baseball’s top closers before missing all of 2016 recovering from Tommy John surgery, then signing a $7MM deal with the Rockies going into 2017.

Perhaps those deals suggest that Romano could earn something a bit below his 2024 salary, maybe with incentives based on his health. At that price range, just about any club could get involved. Even teams with strong bullpens can bump out the guy lowest on the pecking order, so Romano figures to have widespread interest if Atkins’ assessment of his health is correct. The Jays figure to be one of the clubs most motivated to add relief help, based on how last year went. Perhaps Romano would welcome a return since he was born and raised in Markham, just outside Toronto, and has spent his entire big league career with the Jays. However, he should have plenty of other options to consider.

Mariners Have Had Trade Talks Involving Alec Bohm, Nico Hoerner

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The Mariners are known to be looking for infield upgrades this offseason and have been exploring the trade market as part of that pursuit. Adam Jude of the Seattle Times reports that the club has had some trade discussions with the Phillies about Alec Bohm and with the Cubs about Nico Hoerner.

The Seattle infield is likely to be significantly different in 2025 than it was in 2024. Ty France was traded to the Reds last year. Justin Turner became a free agent at season’s end. The Mariners also turned down a club option on Jorge Polanco and non-tendered Josh Rojas. That leaves them J.P. Crawford at short at question marks elsewhere. Recent reporting has suggested they may be comfortable with Dylan Moore and Ryan Bliss covering second base until prospect Cole Young is ready, but even in that case, the corners would need to be addressed. Luke Raley is an option at first base but he could also be in the corner outfield mix and would likely need to be platooned anyway, since the lefty swinger is far better against righties.

Despite the need, the M’s were never likely to be huge players in free agency. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, Seattle has never given a free agent position player more than the $24MM they gave to Mitch Garver in the era with Jerry Dipoto leading the front office. Furthermore, while the club is planning for a payroll bump relative to last year, it’s expected to be fairly modest. RosterResource projects the club to already have a fairly similar spending outlay next year as they did in 2024, so it doesn’t appear a major splash on someone like Alex Bregman or Willy Adames is likely.

All those factors, as well as Dipoto’s “Trader Jerry” reputation for being aggressive on the trade market, have pointed that to being the likely path forward. As such, the talks about Bohm and Hoerner are fairly logical developments, though a trade actually coming together may not be likely with either.

The Phillies are looking to shake up their roster and Bohm is one of the logical trade candidates they have. Many of their position players are veterans who are fairly cemented in place, either due to their key contributions, their contracts or both. Bohm, on the other hand, is a solid but not elite player who is controlled via the arbitration system through 2026.

Bohm is coming off a 2024 season in which he hit .280/.332/.448 for a wRC+ of 115, his best offensive performance in a full season thus far in his career. However, he did so in lopsided fashion, hitting .295/.348/.482 in the first half for a 128 wRC+ and .251/.299/.382 in the second half for a 90 wRC+. He’s also been a bit better against lefties in his career, which continued in 2024. He hit .287/.335/.473 with the platoon advantage for a 123 wRC+ while slashing .276/.330/.437 against righties for a 111 wRC+.

Defensively, Bohm has been a bit of a mixed bag. Metrics like Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average have both considered him to be subpar at third base in his career but closer to league average this year. He can also play some first base as well, meaning he provides a bit of versatility.

Bohm is undoubtedly a useful player and would surely appeal to the Mariners, given their desire to reduce their strikeout problems. His 17.9% career strikeout rate is a few ticks below average and he’s been ever lower than that in the past three seasons, getting to 14.2% in 2024.

Still, despite Bohm’s utility, it seems the Phils are setting a high asking price for his services. Per Jude’s report, the Phillies asked for either Logan Gilbert or George Kirby in return, which is surely why a deal hasn’t happened yet. Back in September, Dipoto said that dealing from the rotation was “Plan Z” for this winter. And even if Seattle was trying to move a starter, Bohm for Gilbert or Kirby wouldn’t be a good alignment in terms of trade value.

Bohm has two remaining years of arbitration control left and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary of $8.1MM. Gilbert is projected for the same salary in 2025 but can be controlled for three more seasons compared to Bohm’s two. Gilbert has also been the far more valuable player in his career, having tossed 704 1/3 innings with a 3.60 earned run average. FanGraphs considers him to have been worth 12.4 wins above replacement over his four big league seasons while putting Bohm at 7.7 fWAR in his five campaigns. Kirby has four seasons of club control remaining and is projected for a modest $5.5MM salary next year. He’s also racked up 11.4 fWAR already in just three seasons by tossing over 500 innings with a 3.43 ERA.

Perhaps Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was just staking out an extreme position for the start of discussions and will bridge the gap later in the offseason, but if that’s any indication of how the Phillies genuinely view Bohm’s value, it may be tough to line up on a deal. MLBTR’s Steve Adams took a look at some of the other potential landing spots for Bohm yesterday.

For the Cubs, Hoerner also makes sense as a trade candidate for a few reasons. That club has a crowded position player mix but there are difficulties in trading many of them. Dansby Swanson, Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have full no-trade clauses. Cody Bellinger’s opt-out makes it difficult to line up with another club, given the potential downside for the acquiring team. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong just took steps forward in 2024 and are still affordable and controllable. Isaac Paredes was just acquired from the Rays a few months ago and his trade value likely dropped a bit since he struggled after that swap.

Hoerner, on the other hand, might be more useful to another club. He came up as a shortstop but has been moved to second base in deference to Swanson. The defensive metrics have liked his work at the keystone but some other team might consider him a viable shortstop if given the chance. Offensively, he’s been just a bit above average in his career, hitting .278/.338/.381 for a 102 wRC+. He’s also stolen at least 20 bases in each of the past three years. He will make $11.5MM in 2025 and $12MM in 2026 as part of the extension he signed last year.

Going into the winter, there was an argument for the Cubs to trade Hoerner for pitching, thus opening up second base for a prospect such as Matt Shaw or James Triantos. However, Hoerner underwent flexor tendon surgery in October, which complicates the possibility of a trade coming together somewhat. His recovery timeline is still uncertain, which will make it hard for the Cubs and another club to line up on a valuation.

His primary position being second base is also imperfect, given that the M’s appear to prefer to add at the corners. Hoerner does have some third base experience but just 41 1/3 innings in the majors. He does have a contact-based approach, with a career strikeout rate of just 12%, which would line up well with Seattle’s plans to improve in that department.

Per Jude, the Cubs are seeking “proven major league talent”, but the Mariners seem to be more interested in dealing from their farm system. Jude notes that the club has eight prospect on Baseball America’s Top 100 list (Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes, Young, Jonny Farmelo, Harry Ford, Logan Evans, Michael Arroyo, Felnin Celesten) and could use that stockpile of talent to upgrade the major league roster. Given the club’s aforementioned budgetary constraints, penchant for swinging deals and stated desire to keep their big league rotation intact, trading from that group seems more likely than giving up someone like Gilbert or Kirby.

Though they won’t be huge players in free agency, Jude adds that the club remains in contact with Turner and old friend Carlos Santana, which is a connection that has been made in previous reports. Turner is now 40 and Santana will be 39 in April, so both will be limited to one-year deals with fairly modest salaries.

Michael Soroka Drawing More Interest As Starter Than Reliever

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Michael Soroka lost his spot in the lowly White Sox rotation in mid-May after posting a 6.39 ERA in nine starts. He was moved to the bullpen and proceeded to go on an absolute tear, prompting some thought that he could draw a surprisingly strong contract in free agency as a reliever this winter. While some clubs have indeed expressed interest in Soroka as a bullpen option, he’s drawn more interest as a starting pitcher through the early stages of the offseason, according to Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

The Mets are among the teams with interest, per the report, which adds that the only teams viewing Soroka as a reliever are those that already have largely full rotations. Few clubs can make that claim, though perhaps the Mariners, Rays, Phillies or Astros could view Soroka as a bullpen option (speaking from a purely speculative standpoint).

Those who didn’t closely follow Soroka’s season may not find the notion of him returning to a starting role all that surprising or interesting. He has, after all, worked primarily as a starter throughout his professional career. Prior to a staggeringly unfortunate run of injuries in Atlanta, the former top prospect looked to be emerging as a high-end rotation piece with the Braves. From 2018-19, he pitched 200 1/3 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 20% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate.

Since that time, Soroka has had a pair of Achilles tendon tears and three separate IL stints related to shoulder issues — including a strain that sidelined him for two months this past season. He’s pitched only 125 2/3 innings over the past five seasons. That lack of durability is another reason to consider him for a relief role, but Soroka did toss 87 2/3 innings this past season, creating at least some optimism that maybe he could hold up better than in prior years.

The broader reason for his appeal in the bullpen was simply the manner in which he performed there in 2024, however. Soroka had only three professional relief appearances heading into 2024. He made 16 relief appearances for the South Siders this past season, and the results were eye-popping. As I wrote on our Top 50 Free Agent list back in early November:

Beginning with a four-inning long relief showing at Yankee Stadium, Soroka punched out seven batters. He went on to fan 15 in 9 1/3 frames over his first three relief outings. From May 18 through season’s end, Soroka pitched to a 2.75 ERA and struck out a gargantuan 39% of his opponents. That includes a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain, but Soroka returned in late September averaging an improved 94.5 mph on his heater and closed out the season with 7 1/3 shutout innings and a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.

Soroka still didn’t have good command in relief. He issued a walk to 13% of his opponents. That’s going to give plenty of interested teams pause. Still, few relievers can pile up strikeouts at such an overwhelming level over any kind of prolonged sample. Sixty punchouts in 36 innings is tough to overlook.

That said, it’s understandable if teams are dreaming on sustaining some of that production and stretching it out over a larger role. Soroka is still only 27 and won’t turn 28 until next August. He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent — particularly relative to starting pitchers. It’s also been a bull market for starters in the early stages of free agency, with Matthew Boyd and Frankie Montas in particular exceeding most expectations with the contracts they signed. Montas posted a 4.84 ERA with an exactly league-average 22.6% strikeout rate and a 10.1% walk rate in 150 2/3 innings. He still commanded two years and $34MM with an opt-out. Plus velocity and a late-season strikeout surge notwithstanding, it was a notable contract for a pitcher coming off a decidedly pedestrian season.

Given the strong early market for starters, some clubs might be inclined to put forth a lower-AAV offer to Soroka in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle for their starting staff, knowing the bullpen route is there as a fallback option. The Mets are apparently included in that bunch, and Soroka seems to fit the mold of pitcher that president of baseball operations David Stearns has targeted since joining the Mets: a formerly high-profile arm with some recently demonstrated upside who’s (presumably) available on a short-term deal.

Reds Exploring Outfield Market

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The return of Nick Martinez and the acquisition of Brady Singer have solidified the Reds’ rotation and now have the club looking to upgrade the offense. President of baseball operations Nick Krall tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that the Reds “are looking to add hitters” now. And while Krall wouldn’t expressly rule out the addition of another infielder, he did suggest that any new acquisitions would “most likely” be in the outfield. Sheldon’s piece has several quotes from Krall, so Reds fans in particular will want to check it out in full.

The extent to which Reds ownership is willing to increase payroll isn’t yet clear. Reds COO Doug Healy said last month that payroll would be at or above 2024 levels. Cincinnati finished out last year with a $100MM payroll and is currently projected for a $101MM payroll in 2025, per RosterResource. They’ll need to be willing to push that number a good bit higher, find a way to subtract an existing contract (e.g. Jeimer Candelario, Emilio Pagan), or strike a trade for a pre-arbitration bat to further bolster the lineup.

Krall noted that he’s exploring both free agent and trade possibilities as he looks to beef up an outfield mix that currently includes Jake Fraley, TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Will Benson, Stuart Fairchild, Blake Dunn and Rece Hinds.

Steer can also play multiple infield positions, but the Reds have a crowded — if inexperienced — infield mix as well. Elly De La Cruz is locked in at shortstop. Matt McLain is likely to handle second base on an everyday basis now that India has been traded. Things are less certain at the corners after Candelario struggled in year one of a three-year contract. He’ll be in the mix at both corners, while former top prospect Noelvi Marte will also see time at third and Christian Encarnacion-Strand will see time at first. Marte missed half the season due to a PED suspension and hit terribly upon returning. Encarnacion-Strand was even less impactful in 123 plate appearances before undergoing season-ending wrist surgery.

Given the uncertainty regarding the infield corners, it’s at least possible Steer could eventually see more time in the infield. He was strictly an infielder with the Twins (the organization that drafted him) and only began experimenting in the outfield with the Reds in 2023 due to their glut of infielders.

The type of outfield acquisition the Reds make will in some ways dictate the infield alignment. It seems likely that the target will be a corner bat, both due to a lack of viable center field options on the market and due to the presence of Friedl in center field. Friedl’s defensive grades plummeted last season, though that’s likely attributable to a hamstring injury that shelved him for a month in the summer. Friedl drew plus marks for his glovework and sprint speed in 2023. In 2024, his average sprint speed (as measured by Statcast) fell from 28.3 feet per second (74th percentile of MLB players) to 26.5 ft/sec (26th percentile). Friedl went 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts through his first 26 games of the season. He played 59 games upon returning from the hamstring strain and only attempted four more steals (going 3-for-4). It seems clear his legs weren’t at full strength.

Among the corner options on the market are Anthony Santander, Teoscar Hernandez, Tyler O’Neill, Jurickson Profar, Michael Conforto, Max Kepler, Mike Tauchman and old friend Jesse Winker. After Martinez accepted the $21.05MM qualifying offer, it’d be a bit surprising to see Cincinnati go to the likely $20MM+ annual value range needed to sign Hernandez or Santander. The Reds also have a largely right-handed lineup at present, perhaps making a left-handed bat more appealing.

MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
  • Why is Cody Bellinger’s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

The Opener: Soto, Signings, Relief Market

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As the baseball world gears up for the Winter Meetings, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on today:

1. Soto bidding reaches new heights:

The bidding for Juan Soto has reportedly surpassed $600MM, the price tag MLBTR predicted the outfielder would land in our annual Top 50 MLB Free Agents list. The news confirms what has been apparent all along: barring a surprise decision to accept massive deferrals, Soto will land the most lucrative contract in MLB history this winter — at least in terms of the deal’s net present value. The Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Dodgers are generally considered to be the top suitors, and there’s been no firm indication to this point that any of them are out of the bidding. With Soto narrowing the field, could a deal be in place before the Winter Meetings begin in Dallas?

2. Signings to be made official:

A handful of reported signings have yet to be made official by their clubs: the Mets’ two-year pact with Frankie Montas, the Cubs’ two-year deal with Matthew Boyd, and the Red Sox’ one-year agreement with Aroldis Chapman. It’s possible those deals are being held up while each club arranges for their new player to take a physical, as is commonplace before finalizing a contract. All three of those teams had open space on their 40-man roster at the time of reaching the agreements, so corresponding moves won’t be necessary. Still, as deals become official, additional details sometimes pop up, as was the case with the recent revelation that Blake Snell’s deal with the Dodgers contained a conditional option for a sixth year.

3. Movement on the relief market:

That aforementioned deal between the Red Sox and Chapman was the first significant signing of a reliever this winter. A handful of relievers have signed small major league deals this winter but Chapman’s $10.75MM guarantee dwarfs those of the other early signers, which are led by the $2.25MM guarantee Boston made to Justin Wilson last month. At such an early point in the offseason, there are still plenty of quality options on the relief market, which is led by southpaw Tanner Scott. Rumors that other top relievers like Jeff Hoffman and Clay Holmes have garnered interest as starters could thin out top end of the relief market a bit.

Chapman highlighted this winter’s class of one-year options from the left side out of the bullpen, though other veterans like Tim Hill, Danny Coulombe, and Andrew Chafin remain as solid options in the next tier down. Could Chapman’s signing spur more movement on the relief market, particularly with the other southpaws?

Bidding For Juan Soto Has Reached At Least $600MM

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The floor for Juan Soto’s contract appears to be $600MM. Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich and Brendan Kuty of the Athletic report that every team that remains in the Soto bidding has made a formal offer at or above that number.

With multiple $600MM+ offers in hand, there’s not much chance of Soto pivoting to a short-term deal. Jon Heyman of the New York Post wrote last week that the four-time All-Star wasn’t interested in taking a shorter term to prioritize his annual earnings. Heyman suggested Soto was seeking a 15-year contract. It’s not clear whether that’ll be on the table, though tonight’s report from The Athletic indicates he’s likely to sign for at least 12 years. That’ll presumably come with one or more opt-out chances as well.

Agent Scott Boras did not comment publicly about contract terms. However, he told reporters this evening that Soto has begun to narrow the field. “We’ve had meetings with a number of franchises. He’s begun the process of eliminating teams and doing things. Juan is a very methodical thinker, so we’ll see, but I don’t think anything is imminent in the near future,” Boras said at today’s introductory presser for another of his clients, Blake Snell.

While Soto reportedly fielded interest from 11 teams at the beginning of the offseason, it seems a clear five suitors have emerged: the Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Dodgers. Most speculation throughout the industry is that he’ll land with one of the New York franchises. To that end, Rosenthal, Drellich and Kuty write that many people around the game expect that Mets’ owner Steve Cohen will refuse to be outbid.

That said, there’s been chatter in recent weeks that the Red Sox are making a serious push. Meanwhile, SNY’s Andy Martino and Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (X link) each suggested last night that the Blue Jays might come in with the highest bid at the end of the day. Reporting has generally cast the Dodgers as something of a long shot, but it’s impossible to count them out on any top-tier free agent.

In any case, Soto seems mere days away from establishing a record for the top net present value in MLB history. That’s currently held by Shohei Ohtani, whose deal is valued by MLB just shy of $461MM after accounting for deferrals. There was never much doubt that Soto would beat that, though it was fair to wonder whether the bidding would stop somewhere between $500MM and $600MM.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Soto would receive exactly $600MM over 13 years — a number that looks as if it’ll be light. While it doesn’t seem that decision will come within the next 24 hours, there’s a widespread belief that Soto will make his call by the end of next week’s Winter Meetings.

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