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Yankees Reinstate JT Brubaker

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The Yankees announced that right-hander JT Brubaker has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. Robert Murray of FanSided reported on Brubaker’s activation prior to the official announcement. The 40-man roster is now full. Right-hander Scott Effross was optioned after last night’s game in a corresponding active roster move.

Brubaker, now 31, has technically been a Yankee for about a year and a half but is still looking to make his official debut in pinstripes. The Yankees acquired him from the Pirates in March of 2024, sending a player to be named later or cash to Pittsburgh in exchange for Brubaker and international bonus pool space. The PTBNL was later named as infielder Keiner Delgado.

In April of 2023, about a year before the trade, Brubaker had undergone Tommy John surgery. At the time of the deal, the Yankees surely expected a few more months of rehab but a few speed bumps have popped up and continually kept him on the shelf. He started a rehab assignment in June of last year but an oblique strain put him back on ice in July. He started a new rehab assignment in September but made just three outings that month before the winter kicked in.

The expectation was that he would be healthy coming into 2025. He and the Yanks avoided arbitration by agreeing to a salary of $1.82MM. Unfortunately, he suffered an unusual injury during the spring, somehow breaking three ribs while trying to avoid a comebacker. He landed on the 15-day IL to start the season and was on the 60-day version by the first day of April. He was able to start a rehab assignment a month ago and tossed 21 1/3 minor league innings with a 2.95 earned run average.

The Yanks stretched Brubaker out on his rehab assignment, getting to five innings in his most recent appearance, and he was also a starter as a Pirate. With Pittsburgh, he had a 4.99 ERA in 315 2/3 innings with a 23.3% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate and 44% ground ball rate.

He will probably be in a long relief role for the Yanks, behind the rotation of Max Fried, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Will Warren and Ryan Yarbrough. Brubaker has over five years of big league service time and therefore can’t be optioned to the minors without his consent. If he stays on the roster through the end of the year, he’ll have exactly six years of service time and will qualify for free agency.

Photo courtesy of Dave Nelson, Imagn Images

Yankees Place Eight Players On Injured List

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The Yankees announced eight injured list placements on Wednesday afternoon. Clarke Schmidt (rotator cuff tendinitis), JT Brubaker (rib fractures), Clayton Beeter (shoulder impingement), Ian Hamilton (virus), Scott Effross (hamstring strain) and Jonathan Loáisiga (rehab from elbow surgery) all landed on the 15-day injured list. As position players, Giancarlo Stanton (elbow epicondylitis) and DJ LeMahieu (calf strain) went on the 10-day IL. All placements were retroactive to March 24, the earliest date for 10-day or 15-day stints.

None of the moves come as a surprise. Loáisiga has been rehabbing last April’s UCL procedure and will be out at least into May. Stanton didn’t participate in Spring Training and faces an uncertain recovery timeline because of injuries to both elbows. Beeter has been throwing side sessions but didn’t see any game action in camp due to the shoulder issue. LeMahieu, Schmidt, Brubaker and Effross all suffered injuries in Spring Training. Hamilton isn’t hurt but didn’t make his Spring Training debut until last Thursday after being delayed by illness. He needs a couple weeks to continue his build-up.

The only surprise is that the Yanks did not place Jake Cousins on the 15-day IL this afternoon. He was delayed by a forearm strain and did not pitch in games this spring. Cousins has been throwing side sessions but it seems unlikely that the team would throw him directly into regular season action without any Spring Training appearances. It’s possible they’ll make another move when they officially set their Opening Day roster tomorrow.

One player who’ll certainly be on that roster: catcher J.C. Escarra. The Yankees announced over the weekend that the 29-year-old (30 next month) made the team, providing social media video of manager Aaron Boone informing him of that decision. Escarra secures the backup job behind Austin Wells and will make his major league debut once he gets into a game. The Yankees placed him on their 40-man roster at the beginning of the offseason so he wouldn’t reach minor league free agency.

A left-handed hitter, Escarra combined for a .261/.355/.434 line with nearly as many walks as strikeouts across 493 minor league plate appearances last season. The Yankees cleared a path for him to grab the backup job by trading Jose Trevino and Carlos Narváez over the winter. The spot was Escarra’s to lose entering camp, and he solidified it by hitting .302 with three homers in 19 games. Escarra was playing in the independent ranks and in Mexico as recently as 2023. Two years later, he’s breaking camp with an MLB team.

Scott Effross Diagnosed With Grade 2 Hamstring Strain

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Yankees right-hander Scott Effross exited his Grapefruit League debut after one pitch due to what looked to be a leg injury earlier this week. Manager Aaron Boone announced this morning that imaging has indeed revealed a notable injury: a Grade 2 strain of the reliever’s left hamstring (link via Greg Joyce of the New York Post). Effross received a platelet-rich plasma injection this morning and appears to be facing a relatively lengthy absence. “It’s going to take some time,” Boone told the Yankees beat.

It’s a brutal blow for a talented but snakebit reliever who’s dealt with myriad injuries in recent years. Acquired by the Yankees in a 2022 trade sending Hayden Wesneski to the Cubs, Effross has managed only 16 big league innings for New York since that deadline swap. He pitched 12 2/3 excellent innings down the stretch in ’22 (2.13 ERA, 23.5% strikeout rate, 7.8% walk rate) but required Tommy John surgery late in the year.

That operation cost Effross the entire 2023 season. The hope had been that he’d be ready to go for the 2024 season, but Effross began experiencing back pain in the 2023-24 offseason and required surgery that December. Recovery from that second operation shelved him into mid-July. He allowed two runs in 3 1/3 big league innings last summer, spending the bulk of his time pitching in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, where he threw quite well. In 35 1/3 minor league frames last year, Effross logged a 2.55 earned run average with a solid 23.4% strikeout rate, an even stronger 6.6% walk rate and a mammoth 61.7% grounder rate. His already pedestrian sinker velocity dipped from a pre-surgery high of 90.7 mph to 89.4 mph in Scranton, but Effross’ results were clearly sharp in spite of that decline.

The Yankees haven’t provided a firm timetable. Two years ago, on Feb. 13, the Yankees announced a Grade 2 hamstring strain for Nestor Cortes, who was shut down from throwing for two weeks but recovered well enough to take the mound for his season debut on April 3. Even injuries with the same diagnosis can come with different timeframes, however. Cortes, for instance, didn’t require a PRP injection, which already signals that the two injuries aren’t necessarily analogous.

With Effross out of the picture for the time being, Boone’s bullpen will feature Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Ian Hamilton, Tim Hill, Mark Leiter Jr. and trade acquisition Fernando Cruz. Marcus Stroman is trending toward a relief role as well, though the Yankees have been working to trade him this winter. Right-hander JT Brubaker, who hasn’t pitched in the majors since 2022 due to injury, is also in the mix given that he has five years of MLB service time and thus can’t be optioned without his consent. The Effross injury and a potential trade of Stroman could open the door for Clayton Beeter or a non-roster veteran like Tyler Matzek or Rob Zastryzny to win a job as well.

In 74 2/3 innings at the major league level, the 31-year-old Effross touts a 2.89 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 45.9% grounder rate and 0.72 homers per nine innings. He’s picked up 19 holds and four saves in 77 MLB appearances.

Yankees Outright Josh Maciejewski

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September 6: The Yankees announced that Maciejewski was outrighted to Triple-A, indicating he cleared waivers. He has the right to elect free agency by virtue of a previous career outright but it’s not yet clear if he’s chosen to do so.

September 1: The Yankees announced this morning that they have designated left-hander Josh Maciejewski for assignment. The move opens up a 40-man roster spot for Anthony Rizzo, whose activation from the 60-day IL was reported on yesterday. Rizzo takes one of four active roster spots created by yesterday’s demotions of Ben Rice and Will Warren as well as today’s expansion from 26 to 28 roster spots. Outfielder Duke Ellis was recalled to the majors alongside right-handers Scott Effross and Ron Marinaccio to fill the other three open spots.

Maciejewski, 29, was added to the Yankees’ 40-man roster back in June and has made four multi-inning relief appearances for the club in total. He has pitched well in that limited exposure in the majors, with a 2.57 ERA and a 25.9% strikeout rate in his seven innings of work at the big league level. Those strong results contrast sharply with his ugly performance in the minor leagues this year, however, as Maciejewski sports a 6.02 ERA in 46 1/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level with the Yankees this year. That’s not far off from his career numbers at the level, either, as in 40 career appearances at the highest level of the minors the lefty has struggled to a 5.61 ERA.

Given Maciejewski’s lackluster body of work in the minors, it’s not necessarily a shock that the club opted to part ways with the lefty despite his small sample success in the Bronx. The lefty’s departure makes room for the return of Rizzo, who figures to step into his previous role as the club’s everyday first baseman down the stretch now that he’s recovered from the forearm fracture that kept him sidelined since mid-June. The 35-year-old will look to return to the form he’s shown in previous seasons after struggling to a .223/.289/.341 slash line in 70 games prior to the injury.

He’ll be joined on the roster by Ellis, a 26-year-old rookie who made his big league debut with the White Sox earlier this year. Ellis has just four plate appearances in the big leagues under his belt and hasn’t hit much throughout his career in the minors, but he nonetheless figures to be a worthwhile addition to New York’s positional mix thanks to his blistering speed and solid defense in the outfield. Ellis has already stolen four bases without being caught in his limited time at the big league level, and he’s stolen at least 50 bags at the minor league level in each of the last three seasons.

As for the pitchers, Effross’s first appearance with the club this year will be his first time pitching on a major league mound since 2022, as he underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after being acquired from the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline and then had his return to action further delayed by back surgery back in February. The sidearming righty has been very effective at the big league level when healthy enough to take the mound, with a 2.78 ERA and 2.63 FIP in 71 1/3 innings of work. He’ll join the bullpen alongside Marinaccio, who has a 2.53 ERA despite a 4.63 FIP in 21 1/3 innings of work this year.

Yankees Designate Cody Morris, Reinstate Scott Effross

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The Yankees announced a pair of roster moves, including the news that right-hander Cody Morris has been designated for assignment.  The 40-man roster spot was required since right-hander Scott Effross was reinstated from the 60-day injured list, and then optioned to Triple-A.

Morris was acquired from the Guardians last December in exchange for Estevan Florial, and though Morris has been called up a couple of times this season, he has yet to make his official debut in a Yankees uniform.  At the Triple-A level, Morris has a 4.25 ERA over 36 innings for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, with a glaring 16% walk rate undermining a solid 25.8% strikeout rate.

The control problems have been apparent during Morris’ brief run in the big leagues, as he has a 13.% walk rate over 31 2/3 innings with Cleveland in 2022-23, albeit with a 3.41 ERA.  The ERA breaks down as a 2.28 mark over 23 2/3 frames in 2022, but then a 6.75 ERA in eight innings last season, as Morris also missed time early in the season with a teres major strain.  Morris also had an inflated walk rate during his time with the Guardians’ Triple-A affiliate in 2023, which likely made him an expendable arm for the Guards in the offseason.

Morris has worked primarily as a reliever over the last two seasons, though usually in multi-inning fashion given his past usage as a starting pitcher.  This ability to eat innings out of the pen could make him an interesting candidate to be claimed off waivers, if a rival club is able to overlook his walks (or, thinks it can harness Morris’ control).  Morris has never been outrighted before in his career, so if clears waivers here, he’ll have to report to the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate in the event that the Yankees outright him off the 40-man roster rather than release him entirely.

The Cubs sent Effross to the Yankees at the trade deadline in 2022, and while his tenure in the Bronx had strong immediate results (a 2.13 ERA in 12 2/3 innings), Effross’ career was then put on hold by Tommy John surgery that October.  He also underwent a back surgery this past February that delayed his return even further, but Effross has posted a 3.86 ERA and very strong secondary metrics in 9 1/3 innings over eight appearances during his rehab assignment. Effross looks like an intriguing secret weapon to join New York’s bullpen at some point in the second half, which will be a boost to a team that figures to be looking for relief help anyway at this year’s deadline.

Brewers Trade Clayton Andrews To Yankees

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The Yankees have acquired left-hander Clayton Andrews from the Brewers in exchange for minor league righty Joshua Quezada, the teams announced Wednesday. New York transferred righty Scott Effross, who’s recovering from December back surgery (that was just announced today), to the 60-day injured list. Milwaukee designated Andrews for assignment last week.

Andrews, 27, made his big league debut with Milwaukee in 2023, though things didn’t go as he’d hoped. He pitched just 3 1/3 innings but was torched for ten earned runs on the strength of three homers in that brief cup of coffee.

Ugly as that tiny sample was, Andrews had much more encouraging results in the minors. He spent the bulk of the 2023 campaign with the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate in Nashville, pitching to a tidy 2.53 ERA in 57 frames out of the bullpen. Andrews fanned a hefty 31.1% of his opponents in Nashville and posted a solid 45.7% grounder rate, but his 13% walk rate was an eyesore that’ll clearly need improvement if he’s to carve out a big league role for himself.

A 17th-round pick by the Brewers back in 2018, Andrews still has a pair of minor league option years remaining, which will give the Yankees some flexible depth in the bullpen. He’s a three-pitch lefty who averaged 94.8 mph on his heater in 2023 and also mixed in a changeup and slider. Andrews’ changeup is considered his best pitch, hence the reverse splits he showed in ’23; righties hit him at just a .215/.312/.349 clip while fellow lefties managed a healthier .233/.337/.438 slash.

As for the Brewers’ end of the swap, they’ll pick up a 19-year-old righty who’s entering just his second professional season. Quezada signed with the Yankees out of Nicaragua during last year’s international amateur free agency period. He spent the season with the Yankees’ short-season affiliate in the Dominican Summer League, where he pitched 46 1/3 innings of 3.69 ERA ball. The 6’2″, 185-pound Quezada fanned exactly one quarter of his opponents and issued walks at a 9.4% clip. Quezada wasn’t one of the team’s high-profile signings on last year’s international market and didn’t rank among the Yankees’ top 30 prospects, but he turned in a nice debut campaign and will give the Brewers a lottery-ticket arm to stash in the lower levels of their system.

Scott Effross Out Several Months Due To Back Surgery

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Yankees manager Aaron Boone provided updates to the media today on several players on the roster. Notably, right-hander Scott Effross had back surgery in December and likely won’t be ready until the summer, per Greg Joyce of the New York Post. In a more benign update, catcher Jose Trevino had a calf strain a few weeks ago and is a bit behind but is still expected to be ready by Opening Day, per Chris Kirschner of The Athletic.

Effross, 30, once looked like a nice pickup for the Yankees. The sidearmer made his debut in the majors with the Cubs in 2021 and was flipped to the Yankees at the 2022 deadline, with Hayden Wesneski going the other way. Between the two clubs, Effross made 74 appearances over the 2021 and 2022 seasons, allowing just 2.78 earned runs per nine innings. He struck out 27.9% of batters faced, walked just 5.6% of them and got grounders on 45.1% of balls in play. He even looked to be moving towards a closer’s role, earning four saves and 19 holds in that time.

But he’s been on the shelf since late 2022 and now seems to be staying there. He landed on the injured list in August of 2022 due to a shoulder strain. In October of that year, it was announced that he would require Tommy John surgery, wiping out his entire 2023 season. Now this back surgery is going to prevent him from pitching in the first half of the 2024 campaign.

It’s an unfortunate series of events for a pitcher who was on such a positive trajectory. Assuming he is able to return at some point this summer, he’ll be looking to get back on track after a layoff of almost two full years. The Yanks will likely place him on the 60-day injured list once they need a roster spot. He’s slated to qualify for arbitration for the first time after this year and is on pace for free agency after 2027.

Without Effross, the high-leverage roles in the Yankee bullpen will go to Clay Holmes, Jonathan Loáisiga, Tommy Kahnle and Caleb Ferguson. Since the surgery happened months ago, the club has surely been aware of it and it shouldn’t suddenly lead to a change in their roster-building plans. But if they do decide to add to the relief mix, guys like Ryne Stanek, Brad Boxberger, Brad Hand and Aaron Loup are still available in free agency.

Trevino, 31, is projected to form part of the club’s catching duo alongside Austin Wells. He only played 55 games in 2023 due to wrist surgery but will be looking to get back on track to the form he showed in 2022. He played 115 games that year with roughly average offense for a catcher but his superlative defense led to him being valued as worth 3.8 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs,.

Boone: Yankees Working On “Potential Deal” To Add Pitcher

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The Yankees are working on a “potential” deal to add a pitcher to the staff, manager Aaron Boone told reporters prior to today’s season opener (Twitter link, with video, via SNY). Boone didn’t futher tip his hand as to whether the Yankees are talking to a free agent or discussing a possible trade. However, they’re opening the season with 14 position players and 12 pitchers on their roster, reflective of both a potentially incoming arm and an off-day on the schedule Friday.

“We’re going with just seven guys in the ’pen, obviously with an off-day tomorrow, where we have a potential deal going that’ll probably change that moving forward in the next day or two,” said Boone. “…A pitcher could be in play for us, that we add or not. Whether or not we do, we’d be in a position to pull from the minor leagues, too.”

New York’s pitching staff has been hit hard by injuries, evidenced by the sheer number of players who are beginning the season on the injured list. The Yankees announced today that lefty Carlos Rodon (forearm strain) and righties Luis Severino (lat strain), Lou Trivino (elbow strain), Tommy Kahnle (biceps tendinitis) and Frankie Montas (shoulder surgery) have all been placed on the 15-day injured list. Right-handers Scott Effross (2022 Tommy John surgery) and Luis Gil (2022 Tommy John surgery) both were placed on the 60-day IL. Center fielder Harrison Bader (oblique strain) and catcher Ben Rortvedt (shoulder aneurysm surgery) are both on the 10-day IL.

Also of note from Boone’s media session today, the skipper indicated that not only will Oswaldo Cabrera get the Opening Day start in left field — but he’ll open the season as the team’s primary left fielder (Twitter link via Joel Sherman of the New York Post). Aaron Hicks will still get some time against left-handed pitching, and Cabrera’s versatility means he’ll occasionally line up at other spots, but it seems the current plan is for him to be the most frequently used option in left field.

The 24-year-old Cabrera made his big league debut in 2022, slashing .247/.312/.429 in 171 plate appearances. Originally expected to be in more of a versatile infield/outfield utility role, the switch-hitting Cabrera seized a more prominent role with a monster spring showing. In 57 plate appearances, he batted .340/.386/.623 with four homers, three doubles, four walks (7%) and 10 strikeouts (17.5%).

The Yankees also confirmed some previously known/reported moves. Top prospect Anthony Volpe’s contract has been formally selected, and he’ll open the season as the Yankees’ primary shortstop. Right-hander Jhony Brito was recalled from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and is expected to start the team’s third game of the season on Sunday. And, as was widely reported yesterday, the Yankees signed outfielder/first baseman Franchy Cordero to a Major League contract and formally added him to their Opening Day roster.

Players That Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Just about every baseball team has a full 40-man roster now, with the Astros the only team with an open spot at the moment. That means that just about every transaction, be it a free agent signing or a waiver claim, requires a corresponding move.

However, that could soon change as the injured list is coming back soon. There’s no IL from the end of a season until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training for the next campaign, which they will do next week. That means some clubs could potentially gain a bit of extra roster flexibility at that time, since players on the 60-day IL don’t count against a team’s roster total. However, it’s worth pointing out that the “60 days” don’t start until Opening Day, which is March 30 this year. That means, though a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL next week, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later.

With some notable free agents still unsigned like Jurickson Profar, Andrew Chafin, Michael Wacha, Elvis Andrus and many others, it’s possible that teams interested in their services might try to hold off on getting a deal done until next week. Or perhaps clubs that have players they would like to sneak through waivers will try to do so now, before rival clubs gain that extra roster flexibility with the IL opening up. Then again, some clubs will need to keep in mind non-roster players they are planning to promote by Opening Day and might hold off on making a move until that time.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon, sorted by division.

AL East

Hyun Jin Ryu/Chad Green

The Blue Jays have a pair of pitchers on their 40-man roster who are returning from Tommy John surgery. They should be on a similar timeline, as they each underwent the procedure in June of last year, though Green will most likely return first since relievers generally require less time to build up arm strength compared to starters. Regardless, the recovery time period for TJS is about 12-18 months, meaning neither pitcher is likely to return until midseason at the earliest. Ryu recently said he was targeting a July return.

Trevor Story

The Red Sox shortstop recently underwent an internal brace procedure on his throwing elbow, a similar operation to Tommy John. Though he’s confident he’ll return at some point, he’s slated to miss most of the upcoming season and is certainly headed for the injured list.

John Means

The Orioles lefty underwent Tommy John surgery in late of April of 2022. With the 12-18 month recovery window for TJS, he could theoretically return in the first couple of months of the season, so the O’s may not want to transfer him to the injured list until they have some clarity about his timeline.

Scott Effross/Luis Gil/Frankie Montas

Effross is a lock for the Yankees’ injured list as he underwent Tommy John in October and will likely miss the entire 2023 campaign. Gil had the same surgery but in May, which means he’ll likely be out until midseason. The situation with Montas is a bit less clear, as he’s dealing with shoulder inflammation that is expected to keep him out for the first month of the season. Unless he suffers some sort of setback, he probably won’t be placed on the 60-day IL right away.

Shane Baz/Andrew Kittredge

The Rays have a couple of hurlers bound for the IL as Baz underwent Tommy John in September while Kittredge had the same surgery in June. They’re both going to miss the first half of the year, with Baz potentially missing the entire season.

AL Central

Casey Mize/Tarik Skubal

Mize underwent Tommy John surgery in June and should be placed on the Tigers’ IL at some point. Skubal’s case is a bit less certain after he underwent flexor tendon surgery in August. The club hasn’t provided a timeline for his recovery but some recent comparables can give us some idea. Danny Duffy underwent the procedure in October of 2021 and was hoping to return by June of 2022, though a setback prevented him from pitching at all on the year. Matthew Boyd went under the knife for flexor tendon surgery in September of 2021 and didn’t return to a big league mound until September of 2022.

Garrett Crochet/Liam Hendriks

Crochet of the White Sox underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year but was already stretched out to throwing from 120 feet in November. Whether he’s able to return in the early parts of 2023 or not will depend on his continued progression in that recovery process. In a less conventional situation, Liam Hendriks announced last month that he’s beginning treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. It’s unknown how long his treatment will take but general manager Rick Hahn said they don’t expect updates “prior to Opening Day at the very earliest.”

Chris Paddack/Royce Lewis

Paddack was recently extended by the Twins though he underwent Tommy John in May of last year and likely won’t be ready to return until the middle of the upcoming campaign. Lewis tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year, the second year in a row that he suffered that unfortunate injury. At the time, his recovery timeline was estimated at 12 months, which likely puts him on the shelf until midseason as well.

AL West

Brett Martin

It was reported last month that the Rangers lefty will require shoulder surgery. It was said that the timeline will become more clear in the aftermath of the procedure but he’s likely to miss the entirety of the upcoming season.

NL East

Bryce Harper

The Phillies superstar underwent Tommy John surgery in November and the club has announced they expect him to be out of action until around the All-Star break in July.

Huascar Ynoa/Tyler Matzek

Both these Braves pitchers underwent Tommy John last year, with Ynoa going under the knife in September and Matzek in October. That makes them both long shots for appearing at all this year, but especially not in the first half.

Max Meyer/Anthony Bender/Sixto Sanchez

The Marlins have a couple of arms that will certainly miss time this year and one more that’s a wild card. Meyer and Bender both underwent Tommy John in August and will miss most of the upcoming campaign. Sanchez underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in October with the club announcing at that time they expected him back by spring. It was reported last month that Sanchez is already throwing bullpens, which perhaps points against an IL stint. However, after the shoulder issues completely wiped out his 2021 and 2022 seasons, it’s hard to know how much to rely on his health going forward.

Danny Mendick

The Mets signed Mendick after he was non-tendered by the White Sox. The infielder/outfielder tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee in June of last year and missed the second half of the season. There haven’t been any updates on his status recently, but further clarity will likely come when camp gets rolling.

Tanner Rainey/Stephen Strasburg

The Nationals have one fairly straightforward case in Tanner Rainey, who underwent Tommy John in August and will likely miss most of the upcoming season. What’s less clear is the situation surrounding Strasburg, who’s hardly pitched at all over the past three years due to thoracic outlet syndrome and various issues seemingly related to that. He made one appearance in the big leagues last year, pitching 4 2/3 in one start in June but went on the IL right after and never returned. He spoke about the issue in September, saying he hadn’t thrown in months and that he is “not really sure what the future holds.”

NL Central

Ethan Roberts/Codi Heuer/Kyle Hendricks

Roberts underwent Tommy John in June and likely won’t be available for the Cubs until midseason. Heuer had TJS in March but the latest reporting suggests he won’t return until June or July. The status of Hendricks is less clear, with the righty trying to recover from a capsular tear in his shoulder. The club is hoping to have him back by Opening Day but also said they won’t rush him. He recently said that he’s expecting to be on a mound by March 1.

Vladimir Gutierrez/Tejay Antone

Gutierrez, a Reds righty, underwent Tommy John in July and should miss the first few months of the upcoming season at least. Antone was rehabbing from a Tommy John of his own when he suffered a flexor strain in his forearm. He announced today he’s received a platelet-rich plasma injection to treat the issue and suggested he might miss the first half of the season.

Max Kranick

The Pirates right-hander required Tommy John in June and will miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

NL West

Antonio Senzatela/Tyler Kinley

The Rockies have a couple of murky situations on their hands with these hurlers. Senzatela tore the anterior cruciate ligament in his left knee last year and required surgery in August. The timeline at that point was given at 6-8 months, which would place his return somewhere in the February-April window. Whether he’ll require a lengthy IL stint will depend on if his recovery is still on that track. Kinley was diagnosed with an elbow strain and a flexor tear in his forearm in June of last year. He underwent surgery in July with the club announcing they expected him to miss one calendar year, which should prevent him from pitching early in the campaign.

Walker Buehler/Blake Treinen/J.P. Feyereisen

The Dodgers have a trio of pitchers that are likely to miss most or perhaps all of the upcoming season. Buehler required Tommy John in August and could potentially return very late in the year. Treinen underwent shoulder surgery in November with an estimated recovery time of 10 months. Feyereisen underwent shoulder surgery in December and won’t be able to begin throwing until four months after that procedure, or around April. His eventual return to game shape will depend on how long it takes him to progress from simply throwing to getting up to full game speed.

Luke Jackson

The Giants signed the right-hander in free agency, despite Jackson undergoing Tommy John in April. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi told reporters last month that there was a chance Jackson begins the year on the 60-day IL, though that doesn’t seem to indicate any kind of setback. “He’s doing great in his rehab, so we’re going to wait and see how he’s doing in spring training,” Zaidi said.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

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