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The Opener: Doubleheader, Giants, Marlins

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As the 2024 regular season continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:

1. Doubleheader in St. Louis:

A game between the Cardinals and Braves was rained out on Tuesday, and the lost contest will be made up today in a split doubleheader. Game 1 is scheduled for 12:20pm local time while Game 2 is scheduled for 6:20pm, with fans who had tickets to Tuesday night’s postponed game eligible to use them during today’s evening contest, per MLB.com.

Game 1 will see Cardinals veteran Kyle Gibson (3.44 ERA) take on Atlanta righty Reynaldo Lopez, who has dominated to a 1.57 ERA and 25.9% strikeout rate across 13 starts this year. As noted by Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Game 2 will see the Braves promote right-hander Bryce Elder from the minor leagues to face Cardinals righty Andre Pallante. Elder enjoyed success with the club in the rotation last year but has struggled across five starts in the big leagues this season with a 6.36 ERA and 5.39 FIP in 23 2/3 innings of work. Pallante has also had his fair share of struggles, as the 25-year-old sports a 5.23 ERA in 14 games split between the rotation and bullpen this year, including a 4.76 ERA through five starts.

2. Giants promoting pitching prospect:

Giants prospect  Hayden Birdsong will make his big league debut this evening in Game 3 of the club’s four-game set against the Cubs. Birdsong, a 22-year-old righty, was the club’s sixth-round pick in 2022 and has subsequently emerged as one of the better prospects in their farm system. He dominated Double-A with a 2.05 ERA and a 30.7% strikeout rate in 48 1/3 innings. The righty’s results haven’t been quite as impressive in two starts since being promoted to the Triple-A level, but he’ll now depart the inflated offensive environment of the Pacific Coast League for the majors. Birdsong is not yet on the 40-man roster, meaning a corresponding move will be necessary before the game starts at 6:45pm local time.

3. Marlins hurler to debut:

The Giants aren’t the only club calling up a rookie pitcher for a start that will serve as a big league debut today. The Marlins are set to select the contract of righty Valente Bellozo. The 24-year-old has not typically been regarded as a high-end prospect throughout his career and has struggled somewhat in 11 appearances split between the Double-A and Triple-A levels this season with a 5.02 ERA across 52 frames. While he’s struck out 25.4% of batters faced and walked just 6.7%, Bellozo has had a problem with the long ball. In his 11 appearances he’s allowed a whopping ten homers (1.73 HR/9). He’ll square off with Royals righty Alec Marsh (4.40 ERA) amid a massive slate of rotation injury for the Marlins.

Brewers Acquire Dallas Keuchel From Mariners

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The Brewers have acquired left-hander Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on X. The M’s will receive cash considerations in return, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com on X. The lefty was with the M’s on a minor league deal and not on the 40-man roster, meaning he won’t immediately need a 40-man spot with the Brewers.

Keuchel, 36, signed a minors deal with the Mariners and has made 13 Triple-A starts on the year to this point. He has allowed 3.93 earned runs per nine innings, despite pitching in the hitter-friendly environs of the Pacific Coast League. His 15.6% strikeout rate on the year is subpar but he’s always succeeded by limiting walks and keeping the ball on the ground, which has been the case again this year. He has a 7.6% walk rate and 59.5% ground ball rate for the Rainiers.

That’s generally been the recipe for Keuchel in his career, as he has thrown 1625 2/3 innings with a 4.02 ERA, 18.1% strikeout rate, 7.4% walk rate and 57.7% ground ball rate. At his peak, he won the 2015 American League Cy Young by posting a 2.48 ERA with the Astros, but his results have tailed off since then. He has a 6.29 ERA since the start of 2021, bouncing to the White Sox, Diamondbacks, Rangers and Twins in that time.

Those lesser results of late are why he had to settle for a minor league deal and why he may not have been able to crack Seattle’s rotation. They may lose Bryan Woo to the injured list, as he departed last night’s start with some hamstring tightness. But even if Woo is bound for the IL, the Mariners have a rotation consisting of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller, with Emerson Hancock and Jhonathan Díaz candidates to come up and replace Woo.

The Brewers, however, have far more motivation for taking a shot on a veteran like Keuchel. They knew coming into the season that Brandon Woodruff would have to spend the whole season on the injured list recovering from shoulder surgery, but he has since been given plenty of company on the IL. Wade Miley and Robert Gasser both required UCL surgery and are also out for the year, while guys like Joe Ross and DL Hall are on the shelf due to other issues. Jakob Junis has been reinstated from the IL but has been working in relief.

That has left Milwaukee with a fairly patchwork rotation behind Freddy Peralta. The club moved Bryse Wilson from the bullpen to a starting role and he has a passable 4.24 ERA but less impressive peripherals. Colin Rea is similar, as he’s a 33-year-old journeyman with a 3.62 ERA on the year despite a tepid 15.6% strikeout rate. Tobias Myers and Carlos Rodríguez are both in their debut seasons and have limited experience. Rodríguez has a 7.30 ERA while Myers is at 3.12, though the underlying numbers suggest that performance from Myers may not be sustainable.

It’s far easier to see Keuchel slotting into that mix than the one in Seattle, so the Mariners have pocketed some cash and let him pursue an opportunity with the Brewers. Despite the rotation challenges, the Brewers are atop the National League Central, five games clear of the Cardinals, and could use some veteran stability between now and perhaps making further moves at the trade deadline.

If Milwaukee plans to add Keuchel to their roster, they will need to make a corresponding move, though that shouldn’t be a problem. As mentioned, Gasser is out for the year but he has not yet been transferred to the 60-day IL, so that’s an easy way for the Brewers to open a spot.

Royals Sign Jesus Tinoco To Minor League Deal

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The Royals signed reliever Jesús Tinoco to a minor league contract. The move was announced by Kansas City’s Triple-A team in Omaha. Tinoco elected free agency after being designated for assignment by the Rangers last week.

A 29-year-old righty, Tinoco has pitched in parts of five MLB campaigns. That includes nine appearances with Texas this season. Tinoco had a rough go during that stretch, surrendering nine runs across 10 innings. He struck out nine, walked seven and hit a pair of opponents. Tinoco had turned in solid results for Triple-A Round Rock, working to a 3.80 earned run average through 21 1/3 innings. He fanned upwards of 30% of batters faced with a 47.1% ground-ball rate.

Tinoco owns a 4.58 ERA in 76 2/3 big league frames. His underlying marks are quite a bit worse, as Tinoco has a career 18.1% strikeout rate while walking 14% of opponents. The 29-year-old has a 4.46 earned run average in 153 1/3 innings at the Triple-A level. He had a solid 2.83 mark over 35 frames in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball a season ago.

The Royals have had one of the worst bullpens among postseason contenders. GM J.J. Picollo has made clear that upgrading the late innings will be a deadline priority. Tinoco isn’t going to impact the deadline calculus, but the mediocre bullpen could afford him a path back to the big leagues.

Fantasy Baseball: AL Bad Team Roundup

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Hello friends.

With the first half nearly in the rearview mirror, it's a good time to go around the league and take the fantasy heartbeats of our 30 possible champions.* Wait, Nicklaus - aren't you jumping the gun quite a bit? Everyone knows the All-Star Break isn't for three weeks, so what are you playing at? Well, real hoopers know that the truth is in the games played, and by that measure, all teams will cross the 81-game threshold by the end of this week, with all but five clubs having already reached 78 games.

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Mariners Place Bryan Woo On Injured List

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The Mariners placed Bryan Woo on the 15-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain before tonight’s loss in Tampa Bay. Seattle recalled reliever Collin Snider from Triple-A Tacoma to take the vacated active roster spot.

Woo left last night’s start in the fourth inning after experiencing the leg discomfort. The M’s sent him for imaging today. Woo told reporters he was diagnosed with a lower-grade variety of strain, though he wasn’t sure of the recovery timetable (X link via Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times).

It’s the second injured list stint of the season for the second-year righty. Woo started the year on the IL with elbow inflammation. He had another scare a couple weeks ago when forearm discomfort led the team to scratch him from a scheduled start and send him for testing. An MRI fortunately came back clean and Woo was able to make two more starts before the leg issue.

A hamstring strain is far less of a long-term concern than any elbow or forearm injury would be. It’s nevertheless a disappointing setback for a pitcher who has been amidst a potential breakout season. Woo owns a sparkling 1.77 ERA in 40 2/3 innings. While he’s running a modest 18.7% strikeout rate, he has only walked three out of 150 batters faced. Woo has only allowed three runs in two of his eight starts.

Manager Scott Servais was noncommittal on who will step into the rotation spot (link via MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer). The M’s have off days on Thursday and next Monday, so they could get by without a fifth starter until late next week. Emerson Hancock has been Seattle’s top depth arm, taking eight starts. The former sixth overall draftee has struggled to a 4.79 ERA while striking out 13.5% of opposing hitters. The M’s tabbed left-hander Jhonathan Diaz for a spot start when Woo was scratched a couple weeks ago, but Hancock would’ve been on short rest that day.

Soto: Plan To Address Contract “In The Offseason”

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Juan Soto will be the top free agent in the upcoming class and is trending towards the largest contract in MLB history — assuming one counts the Shohei Ohtani deal based on its approximate $461MM net present value. There has never been much doubt that the 25-year-old superstar would test the market, even after Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner left open the possibility of discussing a midseason extension last month.

Soto implied as much this evening in a conversation with Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Asked by Heyman whether he expected the Mets to be involved in the bidding, Soto replied “we will see. In the offseason we will figure it out. I’ll let [agent Scott Boras] do his thing. We’re going to see.” The three-time All-Star followed up by speaking glowingly of his time with the Yankees.

Steinbrenner’s comments aside, the Yankees presumably haven’t been all that optimistic about keeping Soto off the market. GM Brian Cashman said in February that the team fully anticipated Soto would test free agency (link via Bryan Hoch of MLB.com). The Yankees will certainly make a significant effort to keep him in the Bronx next winter.

Soto famously declined a 14-year, $440MM extension offer from the Nationals before Washington traded him in 2022. The Padres similarly expressed a desire to work out a long-term arrangement in the early portion of last offseason. That obviously didn’t materialize and he was traded again. There aren’t any publicly reported specifics on contract terms that either San Diego or the Yankees have floated. Heyman said last month (X link) that Soto had declined seven extension offers within the last five years. That has long made it seem like a foregone conclusion that he and his camp would take things to free agency.

He may well do so coming off the best season of his career. Soto hit his 19th home run of the season tonight and is on pace to top last year’s personal-high 35 longballs. He carried a .305/.431/.563 slash line into today’s game. That’d be the highest slugging percentage he’s posted in a 162-game schedule. It’d be the second-best on-base mark he has managed in a full season.

Giants To Promote Hayden Birdsong

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The Giants will call up pitching prospect Hayden Birdsong to start tomorrow against the Cubs. Manager Bob Melvin announced the news this evening (X link via Shayna Rubin of the San Francisco Chronicle).

It’s the first major league call for the 6’4″ right-hander. Birdsong was a sixth-round pick out of Eastern Illinois in 2022. He has quickly outperformed that modest draft stock. Birdsong pitched quite well in the low minors during his first full professional season. While he ran into a bit of trouble during his first crack at Double-A, he established himself as one of the more intriguing arms in the organization.

Baseball America ranked Birdsong the #5 prospect in the San Francisco system entering the season. The Athletic’s Keith Law slotted him 10th in February, while Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice of FanGraphs ranked him 17th on their organizational write-up in April. All three outlets credit him with a velocity jump into the mid-90s during his first season in pro ball. Evaluators praise Birdsong’s 12-6 curveball and slider as well, though scouting reports haven’t been especially keen on his changeup.

FanGraphs writes that Birdsong is likely to end up in relief because of subpar command. The reports at BA and The Athletic were more optimistic on his chances of sticking in the rotation, though both outlets noted that he’ll need to continue improving to profile as a starter. Baseball America writes that the development of Birdsong’s command could be the x-factor, while Law suggests the biggest question is whether he’ll find a pitch with enough lateral movement to complement his north-south breaking stuff.

Even if Birdsong does wind up as a bullpen piece, that’d be a very good outcome for a sixth-round draftee who signed for less than $200K. The Giants will give him an opportunity to stick as a starter before considering that possibility. Birdsong has turned in excellent numbers for Double-A Richmond this year. In 11 starts, he worked to a 2.05 earned run average while punching out 30.7% of opposing hitters. While he issued walks at a lofty 10.1% clip, his stuff was clearly too advanced for Double-A.

The Giants bumped the 22-year-old to Triple-A Sacramento 10 days ago. Birdsong allowed five runs on eight hits and six walks over his first nine innings in the Pacific Coast League. Despite his limited experience at the top minor league level, he’ll get a look against MLB hitters. The Giants lost Keaton Winn to the injured list over the weekend, necessitating a fifth starter if they weren’t going to use a bullpen game.

Birdsong is not on the 40-man roster. The Giants will select his contract tomorrow and will need to make corresponding active and 40-man roster transactions. They don’t have any obvious candidates for a move to the 60-day injured list, so they’ll likely designate someone for assignment.

Cubs Release Yan Gomes

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The Cubs have released veteran catcher Yan Gomes, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That was the expected outcome after he was designated for assignment last week. He’s now a free agent and can sign with any club.

Gomes is a veteran with over a thousand games in the majors and a 37th birthday coming up next month. He has spent most of that as a solid defender behind the plate with some inconsistent but potent offense. He doesn’t draw a lot of walks and can be strikeout prone, but he’s generally been a reliable source of double-digit home runs whenever he gets regular playing time.

Going into the 2022 season, the Cubs signed him to a two-year deal with a $13MM guarantee and a $6MM club option for 2024. His first season with the Cubs was a bit of a disappointment but he hit 10 home runs last year and slashed .267/.315/.408 for a wRC+ of 95. That means he was 5% below league average overall but that’s a strong result for a catcher.

The Cubs picked up the option for 2024 but the results from Gomes took a nosedive. In 96 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, he slashed .154/.179/.242. He walked just 2.1% of the time while getting punched out at a massive 37.5% clip and the defensive metrics soured on him as well.

The club was also seeing significant struggles from youngster Miguel Amaya, turning the catching position into a black hole on the roster. Amaya is just 25 years old and has five years of club control beyond this one, so the Cubs weren’t likely to give up on him based on a few rough months, but he has exhausted his option years and can’t be sent down to the minors. That left Gomes squeezed off the roster with a few months left on his contract.

No other club was going to acquire Gomes based on how rough he’s been this year, as doing so would involve absorbing what’s left of his salary, just over $3MM. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment, so the Cubs have released him, which leaves them on the hook for the remainder of that money.

Any of the other clubs can now sign him while only paying him the prorated version of the major league minimum salary, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay. Despite his rough season, perhaps that will spur some team to take a low-cost chance on him based on his track record. He has 137 career home runs and a .246/.295/.412 slash line overall, with that translating to an 89 wRC+.

Brewers Select Joel Kuhnel

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The Brewers announced today that they have selected the contract of right-hander Joel Kuhnel. In corresponding moves, right-hander Carlos Rodríguez was optioned to Triple-A Nashville while left-hander Robert Gasser was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Brewers also announced their previously-reported deal to acquire Dallas Keuchel from the Mariners.

Kuhnel, 29, has bounced around the league this year. He signed a minor league deal with the Astros in the offseason and made that club’s roster in mid-April. He was later designated for assignment and flipped to the Blue Jays in a cash deal, though that club kept him on optional assignment before eventually designated him for assignment again. He cleared waivers and elected free agency, which led to his minor league deal with the Brewers a couple of weeks back.

Around those transactions, he has tossed 25 Triple-A innings between three different organizations with a 2.52 earned run average, 14.3% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and a lot of ground balls. Those peripherals are fairly in line with his major league track record, which consists of 85 2/3 innings dating back to his 2019 debut with the Reds. In that time, he has a 6.30 ERA, 19% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate and 52.2% ground ball rate.

He’ll give the club a fresh arm in their bullpen for the time being. He is in his final option season and can be easily sent back to Nashville at some point if the Brewers would like. He has not yet reached arbitration and could be retained beyond this season if he holds his 40-man spot all year, though he’ll be out of options next year.

Rodríguez was recently promoted for a rotation audition but currently has a 7.30 ERA through three starts. His optioning perhaps suggests that Keuchel will be added to the club’s roster to take that spot shortly. As noted by Adam McCalvy of MLB.com on X, the club lists tomorrow’s starter as TBA, with Colin Rea having previously been in that spot. That perhaps suggests that Keuchel will take the ball tomorrow and Rea will get an extra day of rest, though more information will undoubtedly be forthcoming between now and then.

As for Gasser, it was reported last week that he will require UCL surgery and is done for the year, so this transfer was an inevitable formality.

Patrick Sandoval To Undergo UCL Surgery

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June 25: The Angels moved Sandoval to the 60-day injured list today. Silseth was reinstated from the 60-day IL and optioned, keeping their 40-man roster at capacity.

June 24: Angels left-hander Patrick Sandoval told reporters that he has a high-grade flexor tear and a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his left arm. Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com was among those to relay the news on X. While Bollinger uses the phrase “Tommy John surgery,” Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register says on X that the exact nature of the surgery isn’t yet clear. Regardless, the lefty is done for this year and part of 2025 as well.

The news is obviously devastating, both for Sandoval personally and for the Angels as a team. As the club has struggled to find consistent quality pitching in recent years, the southpaw has been one of the few bright spots of their staff.

Since the start of 2021, Sandoval has tossed 460 innings for the club, allowing 3.80 earned runs per nine frames. He struck out 22.6% of batters faced in that time with a 10.2% walk rate and 47.3% ground ball rate. Unfortunately, he had to leave Friday’s start in obvious pain and was placed on the 15-day injured list with an elbow strain, and now the decision has been made that surgery is required.

Sandoval qualified for arbitration after 2022 as a Super Two player. He made $2.75MM last year and is making $5.025MM this year, with two more arbitration seasons remaining. With the Angels having a poor season and no return to contention in sight, he could have been made available at this summer’s deadline and been one of the more attractive arms on the market, something that MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently took a look at.

Now that won’t be on the table and Sandoval is looking at a lengthy layoff. A full Tommy John surgery usually comes with a recovery timeline of 14 to 18 months, which would put his 2025 season in jeopardy. The internal brace variety can sometimes have shorter timelines, but only by a few months.

The Angels will transfer Sandoval to the 60-day injured list when they need a roster spot but he will need to be reinstated for the offseason. Assuming they tender him a contract for 2025, he won’t be able to get much of a raise on the heels of this truncated season. The club may be tempted to non-tender a pitcher that may not contribute anything next year, but pitchers in this situation often sign two-year deals to cover their recovery and return to the mound. The Angels can effectively do that just by tendering him a deal for next year and then for 2026.

It’s also another challenge for a rotation that has had plenty. Reid Detmers struggled enough this year that he was optioned down to the minors. Tyler Anderson is having a good year but is 34 years old and has one year left on his contract, making him a logical trade candidate. Griffin Canning has just one year of control beyond this year as well. Chase Silseth and José Soriano are also on the injured list. Zach Plesac has been added to the roster lately but hasn’t found much success in his first two starts. With Sandoval’s surgery, piecing together the rotation will be even harder, both this year and next year.

For Sandoval personally, he will lose the remainder of his age-27 season and a decent chunk of his age-28 season as well, putting a big dent in his earning power. He’ll turn 29 years old in October of next year.

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